Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The black market continues to be weak with a double - top pattern in technical form. Steel production remains high, and demand seasonally declines in August, leading to inventory increases. There is an expectation of production restrictions in mid - to - late August, which is beneficial for alleviating the pressure on the peak season. Prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation, waiting for clear peak - season demand. Pay attention to the support levels of around 3400 yuan for hot - rolled coils and 3200 yuan for rebar [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3360 yuan/ton to 3320 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price dropped from 3331 yuan/ton to 3302 yuan/ton. The spot price of hot - rolled coils in East China decreased from 3470 yuan/ton to 3450 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price dropped from 3461 yuan/ton to 3433 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 3060 yuan/ton, and plate billet prices remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. Profits from hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, with East China's profit dropping by 44 yuan to 226 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 0.2 to 240.7, a 0.1% increase. The output of five major steel products increased by 2.4 to 871.6, a 0.3% increase. Rebar production decreased slightly by 0.7 to 220.5, a 0.3% decrease, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.7 to 315.6, a 0.2% increase [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 23.5 to 1375.4, a 1.7% increase. Rebar inventory increased by 10.4 to 556.7, a 1.9% increase, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 8.7 to 356.6, a 2.5% increase [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The daily average building materials trading volume decreased by 0.8 to 8.4, an 8.2% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 14.7 to 831.0, a 1.7% decrease. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 20.9 to 189.9, a 9.9% decrease, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 8.5 to 314.8, a 2.8% increase [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The 2601 - contract of iron ore showed a volatile downward trend. Global iron ore shipments and 45 - port arrivals decreased. On the demand side, steel mill profit margins are at a relatively high level, and pig iron output has slightly decreased from its high level. Port inventories have slightly increased, and the shipping volume has decreased. In the future, pig iron output in August will remain high, and steel mill profits will support raw materials. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and wait and see for single - side trading, and to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore for arbitrage [4]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore types decreased, such as the cost of Carajás fines dropping from 808.8 yuan/ton to 797.8 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 6.5 to - 38.0, a 20.6% decrease, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 5.5 to 16.0, a 52.4% increase [4]. - **Spot Prices and Price Indexes**: Spot prices at Rizhao Port for various iron ore types decreased. For example, the price of Carajás fines dropped from 888.0 yuan/ton to 878.0 yuan/ton, and the price of PB fines decreased from 784.0 yuan/ton to 771.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrivals decreased by 125.9 to 2381.9, a 5.0% decrease, and the global shipments decreased by 15.1 to 3046.7, a 0.5% decrease. The national monthly import volume increased by 782.0 to 10594.8, an 8.0% increase [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 to 240.7, a 0.1% increase. The 45 - port daily average shipping volume increased by 19.1 to 321, a 6.3% increase. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 220.9 to 7190.5, a 3.0% decrease, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 336.1 to 8318.4, a 3.9% decrease [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory increased by 93.8 to 13806.08, a 0.7% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.3 to 9013.3, a 0.0% increase, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 1.0 to 21.0, a 5.0% increase [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Coke futures showed a peak - and - decline trend, and there was a sixth - round price increase in the spot market, with a possibility of further increases. Coking plant profits have improved, and production has slightly increased. Pig iron output is expected to slightly decline in August. There is an expectation of a seventh - round price increase, but previous positive expectations may be over - priced. For coking coal, the futures price has declined after reaching a peak, and the spot market is generally stable. Supply has decreased, and demand has slowed down. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and wait and see for speculation, and to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore for arbitrage [5]. Summary by Directory - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of first - grade wet - quenched coke in Shanxi increased by 52 to 1347, a 3.9% increase, while the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port decreased by 20 to 1460, a 1.4% decrease. The 09 - contract price of coke decreased by 24 to 1660, a 1.4% decrease [5]. - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged at 1260, while the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) increased by 26 to 1191, a 2.2% increase. The 09 - contract price of coking coal decreased by 35 to 1066, a 3.14% decrease [5]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 65.4, a 0.4% increase, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 46.7, a 0.1% decrease. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 2.3 to 856.6, a 0.3% decrease, and the clean coal output increased by 0.4 to 439.4, a 0.1% increase [5]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4 to 240.7, a 0.2% decrease. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 65.4, a 0.4% increase, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 46.7, a 0.1% decrease [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreased by 19.7 to 887.4, a 2.24% decrease. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 7.2 to 62.5, a 10.4% decrease, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 9.5 to 609.8, a 1.5% decrease. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 0.2 to 111.9, a 0.1% decrease, and the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 11.0 to 976.9, a 1.1% decrease [5]. - **Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The calculated coke supply - demand gap decreased by 4.7 to - 4.3, a 9.4% decrease [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the economic growth, inflation, and related price trends in multiple industries. It shows that steel inventory is accumulating faster, power plant daily consumption is rising moderately, and there are various changes in the prices of agricultural products, industrial products, and energy commodities [1][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Economic Growth: Faster Accumulation of Steel Inventory 1.1 Production: Moderate Increase in Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption increased moderately. On August 5, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generation groups was 89.0 tons, up 0.9% from July 29. On August 1, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 223.1 tons, up 0.3% from July 24 [5][12]. - Blast furnace operating rate fluctuated at a high level. On August 1, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.5%, unchanged from July 25; the capacity utilization rate was 90.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from July 25. The blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills was 93.3%, up 1.3 percentage points from July 25 [15]. - Tire operating rate declined slightly. On July 31, the operating rate of truck full - steel tires was 61.1%, down 3.9 percentage points from July 24; the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 74.5%, down 1.4 percentage points from July 24. The operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was weakly stable [17]. 1.2 Demand: Faster Accumulation of Steel Inventory - New home sales in 30 cities turned negative month - on - month. From August 1 - 5, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 162,000 square meters, down 20.1% from July, 21.2% from August last year, and 40.6% from August 2023 [23]. - The auto market retail was stable and relatively strong. In July, retail sales increased by 7% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 12% year - on - year [24]. - Steel prices corrected. On August 5, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil changed by - 2.3%, - 2.0%, - 1.4%, and + 0.4% respectively compared with July 29 [5][31]. - Cement prices declined at a low level. On August 5, the national cement price index fell 0.6% from July 29. The cement prices in East China and the Yangtze River region fell 1.3% and 0.2% respectively [32]. - Glass prices fell further. On August 5, the active glass futures contract price was 1,073 yuan/ton, down 9.2% from July 29 [36]. - The container shipping freight index continued to decline. On August 1, the CCFI index decreased by 2.3% and the SCFI index decreased by 2.6% compared with July 25 [38]. 2. Inflation: Agricultural Product Price Index at the Second - Lowest Level in the Same Period of the Past 5 Years 2.1 CPI: Agricultural Product Price Index at the Second - Lowest Level in the Same Period of the Past 5 Years - Pork prices remained weak. On August 5, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.3 yuan/kg, down 0.8% from July 29. In August, the average wholesale price of pork decreased month - on - month and the year - on - year decline widened [45]. - The agricultural product price index was at the second - lowest level in the same period of the past 5 years. On August 5, the agricultural product wholesale price index rose 0.7% from July 29. By variety, vegetables (+2.5%) > chicken (+0.9%) > beef (+0.4%) > pork (-0.8%) > eggs (-1.0%) > mutton (-1.1%) > fruits (-2.4%) [49]. 2.2 PPI: Oil Price Decline - Oil prices declined. On August 5, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 69.6 and 65.2 dollars/barrel respectively, down 2.7% and 5.9% from July 29 [54]. - Copper and aluminum prices fell. On August 5, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum decreased by 1.4% and 1.6% respectively compared with July 29 [58]. - Most industrial product prices rose. Since August, most industrial product prices increased month - on - month, and most of them increased year - on - year. The prices of cement and glass decreased month - on - month, while other industrial products generally increased [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - The steel market shows signs of stabilizing. The recent decline in steel prices was mainly affected by the drop in coking coal prices. In the off - season, the supply and demand of steel are basically balanced, with a small increase in inventory. Steel prices rose in July, and inventory shifted from steel mills to traders. Steel mills have over - sold recently, and forward orders have been received for 20 - 30 days later. In the short term, steel inventory pressure is low, and as demand transitions from the off - season to the peak season, steel prices are expected to be supported. The main risk is the interference from the expected supply of coking coal. It is recommended to take a long - biased approach on price pullbacks and lightly test long positions at the current level [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore 09 contract showed a volatile upward trend. Globally, the iron ore shipping volume decreased month - on - month, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased. Based on recent shipping data, the average future arrival volume is expected to decline. On the demand side, steel mills' profit margins are at a relatively high level, with a slight increase in maintenance volume and a slight decline in molten iron production, which remains at around 240,000 tons per day. Currently, steel exports remain strong, and the short - term resilience of molten iron is maintained. Terminal demand shows a strong performance during the off - season but weakens month - on - month. In terms of inventory, port inventory decreased slightly, the shipping volume decreased month - on - month, and steel mills' equity ore inventory increased month - on - month. In the future, molten iron production in August will remain high, with an average expected to be around 236,000 tons per day. The improvement in steel mills' profits will support raw materials, and there is a seesaw effect between coking coal and iron ore. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce a stable growth plan for ten key industries, and there are expectations of production restrictions for Hebei steel mills before the September 3rd parade, which may lead to an increase in steel prices and iron ore prices will follow. It is recommended to go long on dips for single - side trading and long iron ore and short steel for arbitrage [4]. Coke - The coking coal futures rebounded after hitting the bottom, with significant price fluctuations recently. The fifth round of coke price increase was officially implemented, and port trade quotes remained stable. On the supply side, coal mine复产 is below expectations, and although coking production restrictions have been lifted, production is difficult to increase due to some enterprises' losses. On the demand side, blast furnace molten iron production decreased slightly from a high level, and downstream demand provides support. It is expected that molten iron production will continue to decline slightly in August. In terms of inventory, coking plants' inventory continued to decrease, port inventory increased slightly, and steel mills' inventory decreased. The overall inventory is at a medium level. As steel mills increase inventory replenishment at low prices, it is beneficial for future coke price increases. There is room for hedging due to the premium of coke futures over the spot. In August, there are positive drivers from production restrictions in Shanxi and Hebei for coking and steel industries. There are expectations of a sixth - round price increase in the short term. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 for speculation and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse spread for arbitrage, while being cautious of increased market volatility [5]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures rebounded after hitting the bottom, with significant price fluctuations. The spot auction prices were stable with a slight upward trend, Mongolian coal quotes stabilized, and large - mine long - term contract prices increased. On the supply side, coal mine operations decreased month - on - month. Due to good sales, coal mines mainly held firm on prices, and the market remained in short supply. In terms of imported coal, Mongolian coal prices stabilized this week after following the futures decline last week, and downstream users continued to replenish inventory. On the demand side, coking operations remained stable, and downstream blast furnace molten iron production decreased slightly from a high level, with continuous downstream inventory replenishment demand. In August, molten iron production is expected to remain at around 236,000 tons per day. In terms of inventory, coal mines continued to rapidly reduce inventory, ports and borders also saw inventory reduction, and downstream actively replenished inventory, with the overall inventory at a medium level. Although the spot fundamentals are under pressure due to the futures market, there are still expectations of coal mine production restrictions in August. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 for speculation and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse spread for arbitrage, while being cautious of increased market volatility [5]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - For rebar, spot prices in East China, North China decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while the price in South China remained unchanged. Futures contract prices generally increased slightly. For hot - rolled coils, spot prices in East China increased by 20 yuan/ton, North China decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and South China remained unchanged. Futures contract prices also increased [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar remained unchanged, while the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased to varying degrees [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron production increased by 2.6 to 242.6 tons, a 1.1% increase. The production of five major steel products increased slightly by 0.5 to 867.4 tons, a 0.1% increase. Rebar production decreased by 0.9 to 211.1 tons, a 0.4% decrease, with electric - arc furnace production increasing by 2.6 to 26.6 tons (a 10.9% increase) and converter production decreasing by 3.5 to 184.5 tons (a 1.9% decrease). Hot - rolled coil production increased by 5.3 to 322.8 tons, a 1.7% increase [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 15.4 to 1351.9 tons, a 1.2% increase. Rebar inventory increased by 7.6 to 546.3 tons, a 1.4% increase. Hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 2.8 to 348.0 tons, an 0.8% increase [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 2.3 to 11.0 tons, a 27.0% increase. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 16.1 to 852.0 tons, a 1.9% decrease. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 13.2 to 203.4 tons, a 6.1% decrease. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 4.8 to 320.0 tons, a 1.5% increase [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased, with the 09 - contract basis of some powders decreasing. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.5 to - 48.0, a 3.0% increase, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 1.5 to 24.5, a 5.8% decrease, and the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indices - Spot prices at Rizhao Port for various iron ore powders increased slightly, and the prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe also increased slightly [4]. Supply - The 45 - port weekly arrival volume increased by 267.3 to 2507.8 tons, an 11.9% increase. The global weekly shipping volume decreased by 139.1 to 3061.8 tons, a 4.3% decrease. The national monthly import volume increased by 782.0 to 10594.8 tons, an 8.0% increase [4]. Demand - The weekly average daily molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 to 240.7 tons, a 0.6% decrease. The weekly average daily shipping volume at 45 ports decreased by 12.4 to 302.7 tons, a 3.9% decrease. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 220.9 to 7190.5 tons, a 3.0% decrease, and the national monthly crude steel production decreased by 336.1 to 8318.4 tons, a 3.9% decrease [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 28.3 to 13657.9 tons, a 0.2% decrease. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 126.9 to 9012.1 tons, a 1.4% increase. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged at 21.0 days [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke increased. Coke futures contract prices also increased, and the basis decreased. The coking profit decreased [5]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.2 to 64.8 tons, a 0.3% increase, while the daily average production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 to 47.0 tons, a 0.4% decrease [5]. Demand - The weekly molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 to 240.7 tons, a 0.64% decrease [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 2.8 to 915.4 tons, a 0.3% decrease. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 6.5 to 73.6 tons, an 8.14% decrease, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 13.3 to 626.7 tons, a 2.14% decrease. The port inventory increased by 17.0 to 215.1 tons, an 8.6% increase [5]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 0.8 to - 4.8 tons, a 15.84% increase [5]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Mongolian coking coal warehouse receipts remained unchanged. Coking coal futures contract prices increased, and the basis changed. The coal mine profit increased [5]. Coal Prices - The Australian Peak Downs FOB price remained unchanged, the Jingtang Port Australian main coking coal ex - warehouse price remained unchanged, and the Guangzhou Port Australian thermal coal ex - warehouse price decreased by 6.0 to 721 yuan/ton, a 0.8% decrease [5]. Supply - The weekly raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 6.4 to 868.7 tons, a 0.7% increase, and the clean coal production increased by 3.1 to 444.1 tons, a 0.7% increase [5]. Demand - The weekly coking production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.2 to 64.8 tons, a 0.3% increase, and the weekly coking production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 to 47.0 tons, a 0.4% decrease [5]. Inventory - The Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory decreased by 13.9 to 118.8 tons, a 10.5% decrease. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 7.4 to 992.7 tons, a 0.74% increase. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 4.3 to 803.8 tons, a 0.5% increase. The port inventory decreased by 10.2 to 282.1 tons, a 3.5% decrease [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The industrial silicon price has declined, while the polysilicon price has remained high and stable. The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase significantly in August due to the increase in furnace openings by silicon enterprises. The polysilicon production is also expected to rise, but the demand for silicon wafers may decline. The organic silicon industry has a certain price increase and strong price - holding intention, while the aluminum - silicon alloy industry has weak demand and declining prices. [3] Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon - **Cost and Profit**: In the southwest production area, the power cost has decreased during the wet season, while the prices of silicon coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes have rebounded. Overall, the cost side has weak support for the silicon price. The average profit of industrial silicon 553 and 421 in June was - 2,361 yuan/ton and - 2,049 yuan/ton respectively, showing a month - on - month recovery [3][37]. - **Supply**: The number of furnace openings of silicon enterprises has increased. In Xinjiang, the previously reduced - production enterprises have recovered; in Yunnan and Sichuan, the operation has increased steadily. It is expected that more silicon enterprises will increase furnace openings in August, with a significant overall increase in supply [3]. - **Demand**: The incremental demand mainly comes from the polysilicon sector. In July, the output of polysilicon is expected to increase to around 110,000 tons, and there will still be some growth in August. The organic silicon industry has a weak purchase of industrial silicon due to an accident in an individual enterprise, and the demand for silicon - aluminum alloy is weak [3]. - **Inventory**: The futures price has remained high, and the warehouse receipts have stopped decreasing and started to increase. As the price rises, part of the factory inventory has transferred to the intermediate link and futures - cash traders, and the social inventory has decreased [3]. - **Market Outlook**: Recently, with the weakening of macro - sentiment and the increase in enterprise operation, the silicon price support has weakened, and it is expected to maintain a weak consolidation in the short term, with the operating range referring to 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton [3]. 2. Polysilicon - **Supply**: In July, some enterprises increased production, mainly in the southwest and Qinghai regions, and some enterprises carried out maintenance. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the monthly output is expected to increase to about 110,000 tons. In August, the wet season and high prices will further stimulate the start - up of polysilicon bases, and the monthly output is expected to increase to about 130,000 tons [3]. - **Demand**: The price of downstream silicon wafers has continued to rise, but the silicon wafer quotation cannot cover the full cost. It is expected that the production schedule in July will drop to about 52GW. The battery orders are short - term positive, and the component end has shown a situation of rising first and then falling [3]. - **Inventory**: As of July 31, the total polysilicon inventory was 229,000 tons, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.15GW. As of August 1, the total polysilicon futures warehouse receipts were 3,200 lots [3]. - **Market Outlook**: Last week, with the weakening of macro - sentiment, the polysilicon price has declined after reaching a high. Fundamentally, the supply side of silicon materials has a strong expectation of incremental supply, and the demand side has no major changes. It is expected that the price will maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with the operating range referring to 40,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Organic Silicon - **Supply**: In July, the DMC start - up rate was 67.73%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22 percentage points, and the output was 199,800 tons, showing a month - on - month decline [92]. - **Price**: The organic silicon price has rebounded. As of August 1, the average price of DMC was 12,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.40%; the average price of 107 glue was 12,750 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month; the average price of silicone oil was 14,400 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month [97]. - **Market Situation**: The monomer factories have received orders smoothly, and due to the low factory inventory pressure, they have a strong intention to hold prices. However, because the downstream inventory is sufficient, the purchase intention has declined after restocking [97]. 4. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy - **Supply**: On the week of July 31, the start - up rate of primary aluminum - silicon alloy was 54.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6 percentage points; the start - up rate of recycled aluminum - silicon alloy was 53.1%, remaining flat month - on - month [106]. - **Price**: The aluminum - silicon alloy price has declined. As of August 1, the average price of ADC12 was 20,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%; the average price of A356 was 20,950 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.18% [109].

Research View Copper - Overnight, LME copper rose 0.78% to $9,708.5/ton, and SHFE copper rose 0.19% to CNY 78,370/ton; domestic spot imports remained at a loss [1]. - In June, US factory orders decreased 4.8% month-on-month, slightly better than the expected -5% but significantly lower than the previous value of 8.2%; durable goods orders decreased 9.4% month-on-month, lower than both the expected and previous value of -9.3% [1]. - LME copper inventory decreased by 2,175 tons to 139,575 tons, indicating an end to the phased inventory accumulation; Comex copper inventory increased by 1,360 tons to 236,941 tons; SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 1 ton to 20,348 tons; BC copper warehouse receipts remained at 1,553 tons [1]. - During the off - season, terminal orders slowed down, and the procurement rhythm of the processing end maintained at the level of rigid demand. In early August, the market focused on Trump's deadline for Russia, the results of China - US negotiations, etc., and the macro - performance might be weak. There were also concerns about the market's view on US copper in the future under the 0 - tariff policy for US refined copper, the risk of price inversion and inventory relocation, and the contradictions accumulated in the fundamentals during the off - season. However, the expectation of the peak season in September would limit the decline [1]. Aluminum - Alumina fluctuated strongly. Overnight, AO2509 closed at CNY 3,194/ton, up 0.13%, with an increase of 9,804 lots in positions to 139,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly. Overnight, AL2509 closed at CNY 20,440/ton, down 0.07%, with a decrease of 2,632 lots in positions to 224,000 lots. Aluminum alloy also fluctuated weakly. Overnight, the main contract AD2511 closed at CNY 19,865/ton, down 0.08%, with a decrease of 5 lots in positions to 8,241 lots [1]. - The SMM alumina price rebounded to CNY 3,250/ton. The spot discount of aluminum ingots widened to CNY 30/ton. The price of Foshan A00 dropped to CNY 20,490/ton, and the price of Wuxi A00 was at a discount of CNY 20/ton. The processing fees of aluminum rods in Baotou and Henan remained stable, while those in Xinjiang, Nanchang, Linyi, Guangdong, and Wuxi increased by CNY 10 - 50/ton; the processing fees of 1A60 - series aluminum rods remained stable, and the processing fees of 6/8 - series aluminum rods remained stable, while the processing fees of low - carbon aluminum rods decreased by CNY 31/ton [1]. - The relaxation of Guinea's aluminum ore export policy and the return of mining rights of Shunda and Alufa led to an expected increase in supply. With the new production of alumina in Hebei and Guangxi and the impact of imports from Indonesia, the surplus pressure of alumina increased. The production of cast ingots from the replacement capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan continued to rise, and inventory accumulation might continue, putting downward pressure on the aluminum price center. The aluminum alloy in the off - season might follow the logic of Shanghai aluminum, and there was an expectation of spread repair in the peak season of 2511. In August, the supply - demand pattern of the aluminum industry was expected to shift from the upstream to the downstream [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.57% to $15,105/ton, and SHFE nickel rose 0.61% to CNY 120,640/ton. Yesterday, LME inventory remained at 209,082 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 204 tons to 21,170 tons [2]. - In terms of nickel ore, the domestic trade price of nickel ore slightly decreased, and the premium of Indonesian nickel ore slightly decreased. For stainless steel, the raw material prices were differentiated. The transaction price center of nickel iron moved up to CNY 920/nickel point. Due to the previous slowdown in production and the strengthening of prices, the inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, and the stainless - steel crude steel output in August was expected to increase month - on - month [2]. - For primary nickel, the domestic inventory decreased slightly on a weekly basis, and the output in August was expected to increase 2% month - on - month to 33,000 tons. In general, in the short term, nickel and stainless - steel prices were affected by market sentiment and weakened. The fundamentals changed little overall, with support from the prices of nickel iron and intermediate products below and demand suppression above, and the prices continued to fluctuate [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: The price of flat - water copper on August 4, 2025, was CNY 78,395/ton, up CNY 90 from August 1; the flat - water copper premium was CNY 155, up CNY 5 from August 1. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong remained at CNY 73,000/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference in Guangdong increased by CNY 10 to CNY 60 [3]. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 2,175 tons to 139,575 tons; SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1 ton to 20,348 tons; total inventory decreased by 880 tons to 72,543 tons. Comex inventory increased by 1,602 tons to 235,579 tons. The domestic + bonded area social inventory decreased by 0.2 million tons to 20.0 million tons [3]. - Other data: The LME0 - 3 premium decreased by $9.3 to - $49.8/ton; the CIF bill of lading price remained at $59.0/ton; the active contract import loss increased by CNY 50 to CNY - 53.6/ton [3]. Lead - Market prices: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was CNY 16,750/ton, up CNY 150 from August 1; the premium of 1 lead ingots in East China remained at - CNY 150; the price difference between the first and second consecutive contracts of SHFE lead remained at - CNY 10. The price of tax - included recycled refined lead (≥pb99.97) and recycled lead (≥pb98.5) increased by CNY 125 to CNY 16,725/ton, and the price of tax - included reduced lead in Shandong decreased by CNY 50 to CNY 14,350/ton [3]. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 1,100 tons to 274,225 tons; SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 941 tons to 59,007 tons; weekly inventory increased by 29 tons to 63,283 tons [3]. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium was - $7.2, the CIF bill of lading price was $105.00, and the active contract import loss decreased by CNY 120 to CNY - 302/ton [3]. Aluminum - Market prices: The Wuxi quotation was CNY 20,470/ton, down CNY 60 from August 1; the Nanhai quotation was CNY 20,490/ton, down CNY 30 from August 1; the Nanhai - Wuxi price difference increased by CNY 30 to CNY 20; the spot premium was - CNY 30, down CNY 10 from August 1. The price of low - grade bauxite in Shanxi remained at CNY 600/ton, and the price of high - grade bauxite in Shanxi remained at CNY 640/ton. The FOB price of alumina remained at $377/ton, and the price of Shandong alumina remained at CNY 3,220/ton; the domestic - foreign price difference of alumina remained at CNY 202; the price of pre - baked anodes remained at CNY 6,332/ton [4]. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory increased by 925 tons to 463,725 tons; SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,009 tons to 46,649 tons; total inventory increased by 1,737 tons to 117,527 tons. The electrolytic aluminum social inventory remained at 0.0 million tons, and the alumina social inventory decreased by 1.2 million tons to 4.6 million tons [4]. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium was - $49.65, the CIF bill of lading price was $107.50, and the active contract import loss increased by CNY 20 to CNY - 1171/ton [4]. Nickel - Market prices: The price of Jinchuan nickel plates was CNY 122,500/ton, up CNY 650 from August 1; the Jinchuan nickel - Wuxi price difference increased by CNY 300 to CNY 2,550; the 1 imported nickel - Wuxi price difference increased by CNY 250 to CNY 750. The price of low - nickel iron (1.5 - 1.8%) remained at CNY 3,200/ton, and the price of Indonesian nickel iron (10 - 15%) remained at $0. The price of 1.4% - 1.6% nickel ore at Rizhao Port remained at CNY 465/ton, and the price of 1.8% nickel ore from the Philippines at Lianyungang decreased by CNY 2 to CNY 659/ton. The price of 304 No1 in Foshan and Wuxi increased by CNY 25 to CNY 12,425/ton; the price of 304/2B coils (both rough - edged and trimmed) in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged. The price of domestic nickel sulfate (≥22%) decreased by CNY 300 to CNY 32,300/ton, and the prices of domestic 523 and 622 ordinary products decreased by CNY 2,000 to CNY 213,000/ton and CNY 227,000/ton respectively [4]. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory remained at 209,082 tons; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 204 tons to 21,170 tons; weekly nickel inventory increased by 299 tons to 25,750 tons; stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons to 45,451 tons. The nickel social inventory (SHFE + Nanchu + hidden) decreased by 795 tons to 39,486 tons, and the stainless - steel social inventory data was invalid [4]. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium was - $228, the CIF bill of lading price was $85.00, and the active contract import loss increased by CNY 70 to CNY - 1085/ton [4]. Zinc - Market prices: The main contract settlement price on August 4, 2025, was CNY 22,205/ton, down 0.6% from August 1; the LmeS3 price was $2,505.5/ton, unchanged from August 1; the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.86, down from 8.92 on August 1; the near - far month price difference increased by CNY 15 to CNY 5. The SMM 0 and 1 spot prices decreased by CNY 130 to CNY 22,170/ton and CNY 22,100/ton respectively; the domestic spot premium average increased by CNY 30 to CNY 20; the imported zinc premium average increased by CNY 30 to - CNY 10. The LME0 - 3 premium decreased by $1.75 to $2.5. The prices of zinc alloys Zamak3 and Zamak5 decreased by CNY 130 to CNY 22,795/ton and CNY 23,345/ton respectively, and the price of zinc oxide (ZnO≥99.7%) decreased by CNY 100 to CNY 21,200/ton [5]. - Inventory: SHFE weekly inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons; LME inventory decreased by 3,825 tons to 97,000 tons; the social inventory increased by 0.28 million tons to 8.72 million tons. SHFE registered warehouse receipts decreased by 75 tons to 14,907 tons, and LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 5,725 tons to 51,350 tons [5]. - Import profit and loss: The active contract import profit was CNY 0, up from - CNY 1,558 on August 1; the CIF bill of lading price was $135 [5]. Tin - Market prices: The main contract settlement price on August 4, 2025, was CNY 266,150/ton, up 0.7% from August 1; the LmeS3 price was $27,540/ton, down 2.1% from August 1; the Shanghai - London ratio was 9.66, up from 9.39 on August 1; the near - far month price difference increased by CNY 140 to - CNY 240. The SMM spot price increased by CNY 1,200 to CNY 265,800/ton. The prices of 60% and 40% tin concentrates decreased by CNY 2,600 to CNY 257,500/ton and CNY 253,500/ton respectively. The domestic spot premium average remained at CNY 700, and the LME0 - 3 premium increased by $15.5 to - $0.5 [5]. - Inventory: SHFE weekly inventory increased by 254 tons to 7,671 tons; LME inventory decreased by 50 tons to 1,900 tons. SHFE registered warehouse receipts increased by 7 tons to 7,293 tons, and LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 25 tons to 1,390 tons [5]. - Import profit and loss: The active contract import profit was CNY 0, up from - CNY 25,128 on August 1; the tariff was 3% [5]. Chart Analysis The report provides multiple charts, including those related to spot premiums, SHFE near - far month price differences, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits of various non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin, spanning from 2019 to 2025 [6 - 48]. Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. With more than a decade of commodity research experience, he has served many leading spot enterprises, published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines, and has been interviewed by many media. His team has won the awards of the 16th and 15th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Teams of Futures Daily & Securities Times and the title of Excellent Non - Ferrous Metal Industry Team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [50]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon. He has in - depth research on the domestic non - ferrous industry, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for customers, and has written many in - depth reports [50]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, and provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for customers [51].

Core Viewpoint - The LME base metals are under pressure, with a stalemate among supply, demand, and policy factors, raising questions about which will break the deadlock and provide a clear direction for copper prices [1] Group 1: Supply Factors - Current supply dynamics are contributing to the pressure on base metal prices, indicating a potential imbalance in the market [1] Group 2: Demand Factors - Demand for base metals remains uncertain, which is complicating the pricing outlook and contributing to the overall market tension [1] Group 3: Policy Factors - Policy interventions are playing a significant role in shaping the market environment for base metals, adding another layer of complexity to the pricing situation [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector is generally in an adjustment phase, following the profit - taking adjustment of domestic anti - involution stocks. The overall non - ferrous metals market continues to fluctuate and consolidate. Attention should be paid to the changes in the manufacturing industry and the lagged impact of tariff increases after the trade situation becomes clear [12]. - The US and the EU have reached a trade agreement, which may boost the US dollar in the short term. The progress of China - US trade negotiations also needs to be closely monitored [12]. - The domestic policy benefits have led to a rotational upward movement in the industrial product sector, but the sustainability and intensity of the spillover effect are average, and the impact during adjustments is also limited. Future attention should be paid to specific policies and their implementation [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations for Non - Ferrous Metals 3.1.1 Macro Logic - The non - ferrous metals sector is adjusting, and the varieties that had a relatively obvious weekly rebound last week are also those with relatively large adjustment amplitudes. The market continues to focus on China's future policy direction and the progress of China - US trade negotiations [12]. - The US and the EU have reached a trade agreement, covering 15% of EU goods exported to the US. The US has reached agreements with important trading partners, which may boost the US dollar in the short term [12]. 3.1.2 Investment Recommendations for Different Metals - **Copper**: The COMEX copper premium over LME copper may decline. Although the "siphon effect" in the US market has ended, the non - US market inventory is low. The domestic copper market is expected to show a situation of weak supply and strong demand, but the short - term upward drive for copper prices is lacking. It is recommended to sell near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options [4]. - **Zinc**: Zinc follows the adjustment. The supply of zinc ingots is increasing, and the demand shows mixed trends. It is recommended to be bearish on rallies [14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The market sentiment has declined. For electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, it is recommended to take a short - selling approach and buy out - of - the - money put options for protection [6]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals of tin are weak in both supply and demand. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach and pay attention to the situation of the ore end and macro - impacts. Buying out - of - the money put options is also suggested [7]. - **Lead**: The lead price is in a consolidation phase. The social inventory is rising, but the demand is recovering. It is recommended to go long on dips and use a wide - range option straddle strategy [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The overall supply of refined nickel is in surplus. Nickel and stainless steel are in an adjustment phase. It is recommended to be bearish on rallies for nickel and take a short - selling approach within the range for stainless steel [9]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and daily percentage changes of various non - ferrous metals futures are presented, including copper (- 0.32% to 79000), zinc (- 1.05% to 22645), aluminum (- 0.70% to 20615), etc. [17] 3.3 Third Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Position Analysis - Information on the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector is provided, including the percentage change, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position difference, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors for each variety such as Shanghai Aluminum, Shanghai Gold, etc. [19] 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and daily percentage changes of various non - ferrous metals are given, such as the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous copper spot price (- 0.48% to 79260 yuan/ton), the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 0 zinc spot average price (- 0.57% to 22630 yuan/ton), etc. [20] 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Chain - For each metal (copper, zinc, aluminum, etc.), relevant industry chain charts are provided, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Charts related to the arbitrage of various non - ferrous metals are presented, such as the copper Shanghai - London ratio change, the Shanghai zinc - Shanghai lead price difference, etc. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Options - Charts related to the options of various non - ferrous metals are provided, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume and open interest changes, and the ratio of call to put open interest.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bearish, with a cautious and slightly negative stance [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The signal of the peak in freight rates has emerged, and attention should be paid to the China-US talks next week. The spot price is expected to peak at the end of July or early August, then decline slowly until late August, after which the decline rate will intensify. The main focus of the 10 - contract lies in the decline rate of freight rates from August to October [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Their Impact** - **Spot Freight Rates**: Bearish. The spot price is expected to peak at the end of July. Different shipping alliances have different price trends, with some adjusting prices downwards [3] - **Political and Economic Factors**: Bearish. Tensions in international relations, such as the situation in the Middle East and the China - EU relationship, may have a negative impact on the market [3] - **Capacity Supply**: Neutral. There is an increase in capacity deployment in the future, new ship deliveries, and the port congestion situation in Europe has not been alleviated [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. The demand and loading rate at the end of July were good, but the effect of building a stockpiling rolling pool is weakening due to the high capacity deployment in early August [3] - **Investment and Trading Strategies** - **Investment View**: Bearish, with a cautious and slightly negative stance - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Cautiously bearish; Arbitrage: Hold the 12 - 4 positive spread [3] PART TWO: Price - The spot market has slow demand recovery, high supply, the establishment of new alliances, and price declines in the off - season [5] PART TWO: Static Capacity - **Order - related Data**: Include order volume, new - order volume, and their breakdown by loading capacity, showing the development trend of container ship orders over the years [17][19] - **Delivery - related Data**: Include delivery volume, demolition volume, and future delivery volume, as well as their breakdown by loading capacity, reflecting the supply and demand situation of container ships in the future [24][27][30] - **Price - related Data**: Include ship - breaking prices, new - building prices, and second - hand ship prices, and their changes over time and by loading capacity, which are important factors affecting the cost and value of container ships [38][39][47] - **Existing Capacity Data**: Include the existing capacity of container ships, the proportion of idle and retrofitted ships, average age, and ship - breaking average age, which reflect the overall status of the container ship fleet [53][55][59] PART THREE: Dynamic Capacity - **Shipping Schedule and Capacity Deployment**: The total capacity deployment from Shanghai to European basic ports and the capacity deployment of different shipping alliances (PA + MSC, MSC, GEMINI, OCEAN) are presented, showing the dynamic changes in shipping capacity [67][69][71] - **Desulfurization Tower - related Data**: Include the number and proportion of container ships with installed desulfurization towers, those being installed, and the average age and duration of desulfurization tower installation, which are related to environmental protection requirements and ship operation [78][79][84] - **Average Speed and Idle Capacity**: The average speed of container ships and their breakdown by loading capacity, as well as the idle capacity, its proportion, and breakdown by loading capacity, are presented, reflecting the operation efficiency and utilization rate of container ships [84][89]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows an increase in production by refineries, leading to increased supply pressure. The demand during the peak season has not recovered as expected and remains sluggish. Inventory is continuously decreasing, and the cost support from crude oil is weakening in the short - term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating between 3603 - 3653 [8][10]. - The fundamentals are bearish, the basis is bullish, the inventory situation is complex (social inventory is decreasing, factory inventory is increasing, and port inventory is increasing), the disk is neutral, and the main positions are net long with an increase in long positions [8][11]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the strengthened expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China is 2539000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week is 33.9166%, a month - on - month increase of 0.779 percentage points. The shipment of sample enterprises is 261200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.91%. The output of sample enterprises is 566000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.35%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices is 582000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.51%. Refineries have increased production recently, increasing supply pressure [8]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 32.7%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of building asphalt is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of modified asphalt is 14.383%, a month - on - month increase of 0.34 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of road - modified asphalt is 25%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00 percentage point, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of waterproofing membranes is 30%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 460.93 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 11.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 838.2543 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.69%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. Crude oil has weakened, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short - term [9]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating between 3603 - 3653 [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Base Price**: On July 17, the spot price in Shandong was 3820 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 192 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [11]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory is 1312000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.45%. Factory inventory is 763000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.01%. Port diluted asphalt inventory is 27000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.75% [11]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [11]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions are net long, with an increase in long positions [11]. 3.3 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: The asphalt processing profit has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased [9]. - **Supply Side**: - **Shipment Volume**: The weekly shipment volume of small - sample asphalt enterprises shows certain trends over time [46][47]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The domestic diluted asphalt port inventory has changed over time [48][49]. - **Production**: The weekly and monthly production of asphalt shows different trends in different years [52]. - **Price and Production of Venezuelan Crude Oil**: The price of Merey crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil have shown trends over time [55][57]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The production of local refinery asphalt has changed over time [58][59]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt has shown trends over time [61][62]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss**: The estimated maintenance loss of asphalt has shown trends over time [63][64]. - **Inventory**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The exchange warehouse receipts (including total, social inventory, and factory inventory) have changed over time [66][69]. - **Social and Factory Inventory**: The social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt have shown trends over time [70][71]. - **Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The factory inventory inventory ratio has shown trends over time [73][74]. - **Import and Export**: The import and export volume of asphalt has shown trends over time, and the import price difference of South Korean asphalt has also changed [76][77][80]. - **Demand Side**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The petroleum coke production has shown trends over time [82][83]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The apparent consumption of asphalt has shown trends over time [85][86]. - **Downstream Demand**: The downstream demand, including highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year, and downstream machinery demand (asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales), has shown trends over time [88][93][95]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate**: The construction rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, asphalt by use, and downstream construction (such as shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane) have shown trends over time [97][100][101]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet shows the monthly production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand of asphalt from January 2024 to July 2025 [106][107].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the 50% tariff on copper imports announced by the US may not fully impact the CL spread in the short - term due to high US copper inventory. Attention should be paid to tariff exemptions for some countries. After the tariff implementation, the low inventory in China and LME may rebound in Q3 [1]. - For aluminum, supply increases slightly, demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, and supply - demand is balanced. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory trading opportunities [1]. - For zinc, prices fluctuate widely. Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak at home and weak in Europe overseas. There is a risk of a squeeze in overseas LME inventory. The strategy is to short zinc on rebounds, hold long positions in the domestic - foreign positive spread, and look for long positions in the monthly spread [2]. - For nickel, supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is stable overseas and slightly decreasing at home. After the cancellation of the Philippine ore export ban, concerns are relieved. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continued to be monitored [6]. - For stainless steel, supply is reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventory is slightly increasing. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [10]. - For lead, prices decline slightly. Supply is weak, demand is uncertain, and there is a seasonal peak expectation in July. It is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week [12]. - For tin, prices fluctuate widely. Supply may decline in July - August, demand is weak, and the short - term supply - demand is weak. Attention should be paid to news from the Wa State mines [14]. - For industrial silicon, production is expected to decline, and the market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to depletion. If the start - up does not recover significantly, the price is expected to oscillate [17]. - For lithium carbonate, futures prices rebound. Supply - demand is strong, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate. A downward turn requires significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [19]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the Shanghai copper spot price changed by 165, and LME inventory increased by 850 tons [1]. - **Market Situation**: Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports. The US has filled its annual copper import gap, and the CL spread may not fully reflect the tariff. The export of South American countries may be affected, and the low inventory in China and LME may rebound in Q3 [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price changed by 40, and LME inventory increased by 11425 tons [1]. - **Market Situation**: Supply increases slightly, demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, and supply - demand is balanced in July [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 30, and LME inventory increased by 5200 tons [2]. - **Market Situation**: Zinc prices fluctuate widely. Supply is expected to increase, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand is also weak. There is a risk of a squeeze in overseas LME inventory [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 1550, and LME inventory remained unchanged [6]. - **Market Situation**: Supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is stable overseas and slightly decreasing at home. After the cancellation of the Philippine ore export ban, concerns are relieved [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the 304 hot - rolled coil price increased by 50, and the 201 cold - rolled coil price increased by 50 [10]. - **Market Situation**: Supply is reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventory is slightly increasing [10]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the lead price decreased slightly, and LME inventory increased by 10125 tons [12][21]. - **Market Situation**: Supply is weak, demand is uncertain, and there is a seasonal peak expectation in July. It is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week [12]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the LME tin inventory decreased by 115 tons [14]. - **Market Situation**: Supply may decline in July - August, demand is weak, and the short - term supply - demand is weak. Attention should be paid to news from the Wa State mines [14]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the 421 Yunnan and Sichuan basis decreased by 90, and the 553 East China and Tianjin basis increased by 60 [17]. - **Market Situation**: Production is expected to decline, and the market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to depletion. If the start - up does not recover significantly, the price is expected to oscillate [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices increased by 250, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 1 [19]. - **Market Situation**: Futures prices rebound. Supply - demand is strong, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate. A downward turn requires significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [19].