1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, with mixed signals causing increased market volatility. LME, Comex, SHFE, and BC copper inventories all decreased. Downstream demand was weak due to high prices and macro uncertainties. Overall, copper prices can still be viewed as relatively strong, as a decline may lead to downstream restocking opportunities [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina trended strongly with a 0.88% increase in AO2601, while沪铝 and aluminum alloy trended weakly. Alumina's short - term decline space is limited as it approaches the cost line, and aluminum ingots showed narrow de - stocking. After the cancellation of tax rebates, scrap aluminum prices are further supported, and aluminum alloy is expected to continue to run strongly [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel was flat, and沪镍 fell 0.14%. LME inventory increased, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. Nickel prices rose rapidly before and now face correction pressure, but overseas macro situations need to be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The Fed's interest - rate cut, inventory changes, and weak downstream demand were the main factors affecting copper prices. Despite short - term caution, long - term prospects are relatively positive [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina's cost support, aluminum ingot de - stocking, and scrap aluminum price support are the key factors for the aluminum market [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Supply disruptions, price increases, and changes in inventory and demand in different sectors are the main factors influencing nickel prices [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Market prices generally declined, with some inventory changes. For example, the price of flat - water copper decreased by 525 yuan/ton, and the social inventory decreased by 0.3 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: Most prices remained stable, with some minor declines in lead ore prices and inventory [3]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices declined slightly, and alumina inventory decreased by 1.0 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices decreased, and nickel inventory increased in some areas [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算价 decreased slightly, and social inventory increased by 0.55 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: The主力结算价 increased slightly, and LmeS3 decreased by 2.1% [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][9][10][11][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][15][16][17][18][19][20]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][22][23][24][25][26]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][29][30][31][32][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][35][36][37][38][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [40][41][42][43][44][45]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous metal research and have won many industry awards [47][48][49].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The core decision - making group led by Powell is inclined to cut interest rates three times this year, which is considered the basic scenario. Next year, due to the collective reshuffle of the Fed Chairman and regional Fed presidents, the dot - plot has limited reference value, and the Fed's independence needs to be re - evaluated. "Risk - management type interest rate cuts" imply limited interest rate cut space unless subsequent labor data continues to deteriorate [2][3] Summary by Related Contents Fed's Interest Rate Decision in September - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected at the September FOMC meeting, and the pace of balance - sheet reduction remained unchanged. The market focused on the subsequent interest rate cut rhythm indicated by the dot - plot and the impact of political pressure on the Fed [2] - The biggest change in the meeting statement was the clear indication that "downside risks to employment have risen", which was consistent with Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. In the voting session, most members supported a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, and only the newly - appointed Miran called for a 50 - basis - point cut [2] Dot - Plot Implication - The dot - plot implies three interest rate cuts this year, which dispels the market's concerns about hawkish interest rate cuts. Compared with June, the dot - plot in September is more dovish, with the number of interest rate cuts in 2025 increasing from 2 to 3, while the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 remain at one cut per year, and the long - term interest rate forecast stays at 3% [2] - There is still a stalemate in the FOMC regarding the number of interest rate cuts this year. Among 19 members, 10 support three or more cuts, and 9 support two or fewer cuts. Excluding extreme values, the dot - plot shows a 25 - basis - point parallel downward shift compared to June, indicating that the core decision - making group supports three cuts this year [2] Economic Forecast - The latest economic forecast shows that the Fed is "cautiously optimistic" about the economic outlook. GDP growth is slightly up, inflation is slightly higher, and the unemployment rate is basically stable. This year's GDP growth rate is about 1.6%, next year it is 1.8%; overall PCE inflation is 3.0% this year, expected to drop to 2.6% in 2026 and approach 2.1% in 2028; the unemployment rate is about 4.5% at the end of the year and will decline slightly thereafter [2] - Interest rate cuts in this context may reflect that the Fed believes that a faster approach to the neutral interest rate can hedge against the downward pressure on employment and growth without significantly sacrificing price stability [2] Reasons for "Risk - Management Type Interest Rate Cuts" - The current labor market has a dual decline in supply and demand. Reduced immigration and lower labor force participation lead to a decrease in labor supply, and the rise in the unemployment rate reflects a slowdown in job creation. The "low recruitment, low lay - off" characteristic of the labor market makes the Fed adopt "risk - management type interest rate cuts" [6] - The slow transfer of inflation provides room for interest rate cuts. The expected impact of tariffs is a "one - time price - level increase", and companies between exporters and consumers bear the tariff costs. With the weakening of the labor market, the risk of continuous inflation further decreases, allowing the Fed to shift its policy focus [6] Focus on Fed's Independence - Powell emphasized at the press conference that the Fed works based on the latest data and does not consider other factors. The 12 - member rotating voting system requires a strong argument for a single voter to persuade others [6] - When asked about including the "moderate long - term interest rate" as a third mission, Powell stated that the Fed has a dual mission, and the moderate long - term interest rate is a natural result of stable inflation and maximum employment, and will not be incorporated into the policy - making framework [6]

Group 1 - Gold stocks experienced significant declines in the afternoon, with China Gold International down 3.82% to HKD 125.8, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining down 3.74% to HKD 28.34, Shandong Gold down 3.7% to HKD 33.3, and Zijin Mining down 2.22% to HKD 28.14 [1] - On September 18, spot gold fell below USD 3640 per ounce, declining by 0.69% [1] - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the target range to 4.00%-4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024 [1] Group 2 - Huatai Futures indicated that while the Fed's rate cut has been implemented, Powell's comments contained some hawkish signals, which may exert short-term pressure on gold prices [2] - Dongwu Securities noted that although the long-term bullish logic for gold remains intact, there may be short-term pullback risks due to overbought conditions and inconsistent trends in gold ETF fund flows [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, while in line with market expectations, may exert downward pressure on gold prices in the short term, although long-term factors remain supportive for gold [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which was anticipated by the market, but the overall tone was cautious, with a notable dissenting vote advocating for a 50 basis point cut [1]. - The Fed acknowledged a weakening labor market and indicated that inflationary pressures are still present, suggesting a mixed signal of hawkish and dovish sentiments [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, gold and silver prices experienced a pullback as investors took profits, reflecting a market adjustment to the new interest rate environment [2]. - The dollar index initially fell but later rebounded, indicating volatility in response to the Fed's decision [1]. Group 3: Future Projections - Société Générale forecasts an average gold price of approximately $4,128 per ounce for next year, driven by ongoing inflation and a declining interest rate environment [3]. - Bank of America maintains that despite short-term overbought conditions for gold, the market will continue to receive strong support due to persistent concerns over global fiscal challenges and rising debt burdens [3]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook for Precious Metals - The transition into a looser monetary policy environment is expected to favor precious metals in the long run, despite short-term fluctuations [2]. - Continuous central bank purchases and a shift from dollar-denominated assets to diversified holdings are anticipated to sustain demand for gold [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The FOMC meeting was generally in line with expectations [2][6]. - Silver: It is in a state of oscillatory adjustment [2][5]. - Copper: The Fed's interest rate cut limits the price decline [2][10]. - Zinc: It is in a state of oscillatory consolidation [2][13]. - Lead: The reduction in inventory supports the price to oscillate [2][16]. - Tin: It is in a state of range - bound oscillation [2][19]. - Aluminum: It is in a state of range - bound oscillation; Alumina rebounds from the bottom; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][24]. - Nickel: The contradiction in the smelting end is not prominent, and attention should be paid to the news - related risks in the ore end [2][27]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between long - and short - term logics, and the steel price may oscillate [2][27]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of various gold products such as Shanghai Gold 2510, Gold T + D, etc., showed varying degrees of decline. The trading volume and positions of some contracts also changed, and the inventory of some gold products increased while others decreased. The spread and exchange rate also had corresponding changes [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Fed was hawkish and dovish, and gold prices turned down after hitting a new high. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, acknowledged the weakening of the labor market, and mentioned rising inflation [5][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of gold is 0, indicating a neutral state [8]. Silver - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of various silver products such as Shanghai Silver 2510, Silver T + D, etc., declined. The trading volume and positions of some contracts changed, and the inventory of some silver products decreased. The spread also had corresponding changes [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of silver is 0, indicating a neutral state [8]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of Shanghai Copper's main contract and LME Copper 3M electronic disk decreased. The trading volume of Shanghai Copper's main contract decreased, while that of LME Copper 3M increased. The inventory of both decreased, and the spread also changed [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. Peru's copper production in July increased by 2% year - on - year, and the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia was still shut down. Panama was preparing to negotiate the resumption of the CP copper mine. The copper production of Codelco and Escondida increased year - on - year in July. China's copper production in August increased slightly month - on - month, and the expected production in September decreased [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral state [12]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of Shanghai Zinc's main contract and LME Zinc 3M electronic disk increased slightly. The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc's main contract decreased, while that of LME Zinc decreased. The inventory of Shanghai Zinc increased, and the spread also changed [13]. - **News**: Powell said that the call for a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut was not high, and the employment decline had become a substantial risk [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral state [13]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of Shanghai Lead's main contract and LME Lead 3M electronic disk increased slightly. The trading volume and positions of both decreased, and the inventory of both decreased. The spread also changed [16]. - **News**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the signals were hawkish and dovish, causing major assets to oscillate [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral state [17]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of Shanghai Tin's main contract and LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased. The trading volume of Shanghai Tin's main contract decreased, while that of LME Tin decreased slightly. The inventory of Shanghai Tin decreased, and the spread also changed [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The market expected the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the US retail sales in August increased month - on - month [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of tin is 0, indicating a neutral state [23]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract, LME Aluminum 3M, and Shanghai Alumina's main contract changed. The trading volume and positions of some contracts also changed. The inventory, spread, and other data of electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and related products also had corresponding changes [24]. - **Comprehensive News**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the Bank of Canada also cut interest rates by 25 basis points [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0, indicating a neutral state [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of Shanghai Nickel's main contract and stainless - steel main contract changed. The trading volume and positions of both changed. The prices and spreads of various products in the nickel and stainless - steel industrial chains also had corresponding changes [27]. - **Macro and Industry News**: An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting project entered the trial - production stage. There were environmental violations in the IMIP industrial park. Indonesia planned to shorten the mining quota period. The RKAB production approved by the Indonesian government in 2025 was higher than that in 2024. Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia were shut down due to losses. Some steel mills in Shandong started maintenance [27][31]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0, indicating a neutral state [33].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations, indicating a more unified stance within the FOMC than anticipated by Wall Street [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The FOMC's decision was passed with an 11-1 vote, showing strong internal consensus [1]. - The new member, Milan, was the only dissenting vote, advocating for a 50 basis point cut, while other members who were expected to oppose the cut ultimately supported the 25 basis point reduction [1][2]. - The FOMC acknowledged a slowdown in economic activity and a deceleration in job growth, highlighting a conflict between price stability and full employment [2]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The FOMC emphasized the high uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook and the increased downside risks to employment [2]. - The dot plot indicates that most officials expect two more rate cuts this year, totaling 50 basis points, with one member suggesting an additional 125 basis points [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the bond market experienced volatility, with short-term Treasury yields initially falling but later rising due to cautious remarks from Powell [3]. - The S&P 500 index briefly rose before closing down 0.1%, indicating that the market had already priced in the decision [6]. Group 4: Employment and Inflation Concerns - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021, with job growth nearly stagnant this year, raising concerns within the FOMC about worsening employment conditions [3]. - Powell acknowledged that tariffs imposed by Trump could introduce new inflationary pressures, emphasizing the need for a balance between controlling inflation and maintaining employment [7].

宏观：美联储如期降息 【市场资讯】1）美联储如期降息 25 基点，强调就业下行风险，认为通胀有所上升，预计 年内还降息两次、明年降息一次，米兰投下唯一反对票、主张降息 50 基点。鲍威尔：本次 属风险管理型降息，50 基点降息呼声不高，就业下行成为实质性风险。"新美联储通讯社"： 对就业市场放缓的担忧压倒了对通胀的担忧，为美联储转向小幅降息提供理由。2）美财长 被曝和美联储理事库克同款"污点"：有类似的抵押贷款申报。3）美国 SEC 重磅新政：为集 体诉讼设限，旨在"让美国 IPO 再次伟大"。4）加拿大央行如期降息 25 基点，几乎没有提 供未来降息指引，称在风险中谨慎行事。5）李家超：探索缩短股票结算周期至 T+1，落实 稳定币发行人制度，建造区域黄金储备枢纽。施政报告专家解读：香港全力发展成为国际 创新科技中心。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，从今年的政策导向来看，我国对消费领域的重视程度正与日俱增。 政策转向的背后是由于收入分配层面的失衡，使得国内有效需求难以充分释放，导致资本 回报率呈现递减趋势。当前年内逐步落地的一系列需求端政策并非终点，后续仍将有更多 民生领域的相关政策逐步出台、落地。商务部等 9 部门 ...

当地时间9月17日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间从4.25%–4.50%下调至4.00%–4.25%，这是今年以来的首次降息，正式开启了宽松 货币政策周期。此次降息25个基点符合市场预期，然而后续一系列复杂信号却让市场经历了一场跌宕起伏的"过山车"之旅，而中国资产意 外成为这场风波中的最大赢家。 降息决策：符合预期却暗藏玄机 此次美联储降息虽在意料之中，但点阵图（SEP）透露的信息显示，年内降息幅度还有两次，较6月的降息预期多一次，整体略显鸽派。不 过，在通胀仍未彻底受控、就业呈现放缓迹象的背景下，市场目光聚焦于美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上的表态。 市场反应："预期过山车"上演，资产价格剧烈波动 美联储这一连串混合信号让市场在短短一小时内坐了一把"过山车"。决议公布之初，市场看到年内3次降息的点阵图，交易"鸽派"情绪升 温，美债收益率应声下跌，10年期国债收益率自4月以来首次跌破4%，对利率敏感的小盘股和周期股一度上扬，住房建筑股集体上涨。 然而，鲍威尔随后"支持降息50个基点的人不多"以及"风险管理"等鹰派表述，让市场迅速反转。美债收益率急速反弹，10年期收益率最终 上涨6.3个基点；美元指数先跌后涨 ...

123456789:;<2025-09-18 !"#$%&"'( )*+,-2011.1289 /0 !"#$%&'()*+,-./012 ——!"#$%&'(3 !"#$% 北京时间 2025 年 9 月 18 日凌晨 2 点，美联储公布 9 月利率决议，宣布降息 25bp，将利 率下调至在 4.00%-4.25%，符合预期。 * gaocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 徐闻宇 * xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 高聪 !"#$$%&'$ 9 月 18 日，美联储如期将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25 个基点至 4.00%-4.25%，这是 今年九个月以来的首次降息。声明内容相比 7 月有明显变化，美联储删除了 "劳动力市 场状况稳健" 的表述，新增 "就业增长放缓、失业率小幅上升，就业下行风险增加"，显 示对劳动力市场的担忧加剧。此次降息被定位为 "风险管理型" 降息，主要是为了应对 就业市场恶化的风险，而非通胀压力。FOMC 点阵图显示，今年内预计还将降息两次， 但内部分歧较大，仅有不到半数 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report The report offers short - and medium - term trend forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. The overall market shows a mix of trends such as wide - range oscillations, short - term rebounds, and long - term weakness [2][5]. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - Gold: After hitting a new high, it declined. The FOMC meeting was in line with expectations, and the trend strength is neutral [7][8]. - Silver: Undergoes oscillatory adjustment, with a neutral trend strength [2][7]. Base Metals - Copper: Fed rate cuts limit price drops. Peru's copper production increased in July, and some mines faced issues like worker entrapment and production halts. The trend strength is neutral [13][15]. - Zinc: In oscillatory consolidation, with a neutral trend strength [16]. - Lead: Decreasing inventory supports price oscillations, with a neutral trend strength [19]. - Tin: Ranges within an oscillatory pattern, with a neutral trend strength [22][26]. - Aluminum: Ranges within an oscillatory pattern. Alumina rebounds from the bottom, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. All have a neutral trend strength [27][28]. - Nickel: The contradiction in the smelting end is not prominent, and attention should be paid to news - related risks in the ore end. Stainless steel prices may oscillate due to the game between short - and long - term logics. Both have a neutral trend strength [29][35]. Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: With strong energy - storage demand, it runs in an oscillatory manner, with a neutral trend strength [36][38]. - Industrial Silicon: Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. Polysilicon's spot price rises slightly. Industrial silicon has a neutral trend strength, and polysilicon has a slightly positive trend strength [39][42]. - Iron Ore: Expectations fluctuate, and it oscillates in a wide range, with a neutral trend strength [43]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Both oscillate in a wide range, with a neutral trend strength [45][48]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Boosted by macro - sentiment, they oscillate strongly, with a positive trend strength [50][52]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Expectations fluctuate, and they oscillate in a wide range, with a neutral trend strength [53][54]. - Logs: Oscillate repeatedly, with a neutral trend strength [56][59]. - Paraxylene and PTA: Short - term rebound, but medium - term weakness. MEG conducts a 1 - 5 month - spread reverse arbitrage [60]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: There is no obvious driving force for upward or downward movement, and it is mainly operated within a range. - Soybean Oil: Affected by the oscillation of US soybeans, it undergoes a correction. - Soybean Meal: Affected by the capital side, it deviates from the fundamentals. - Corn: Runs in an oscillatory manner. - Sugar: Oscillates downward. - Cotton: The market focuses on the listing of new cotton. - Eggs: The peak season for spot sales is over, and inventory remains high. - Live Pigs: Policy expectations have been implemented, but the weakness of the spot market remains unchanged. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [5][68][73].