Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) during the September 2025 FOMC meeting, marking the first rate cut in nine months[3] - The median federal funds rate projections for the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 were adjusted down to 3.6% (-30 bps), 3.4% (-20 bps), and 3.1% (-30 bps) respectively[3] - The decision to cut rates received 11 votes in favor, with only one dissenting vote advocating for a 50 bps cut[3] Group 2: Economic Forecasts - The GDP growth forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 were revised upward to 1.6% (+20 bps), 1.8% (+20 bps), and 1.9% (+10 bps) respectively[3] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2025 remains at 4.5%, while the projections for 2026 and 2027 were lowered to 4.4% (-10 bps) and 4.3% (-10 bps) respectively[3] - The PCE inflation forecast for 2026 was raised to 2.6% (+20 bps), with the core PCE also adjusted to the same figure[3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Insights - Following the announcement, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and the dollar index initially fell but later rebounded, while the S&P 500 index declined during Powell's remarks[2] - Powell emphasized that the rate cut was a "risk management" decision rather than a response to poor economic conditions, highlighting the need to address employment market risks[3] - The divergence in the dot plot indicates a split among officials regarding future rate cuts, with some expecting up to 75 bps in total cuts this year, while others anticipate only 0-50 bps[3] Group 4: Policy Considerations - The Fed's dovish stance was described as restrained, with signals suggesting a more hawkish outlook than anticipated, particularly regarding employment and inflation forecasts[5] - The current financial conditions in the U.S. are described as relatively loose, reducing the necessity for further rate cuts in the near term[5] - Investors are advised to be cautious about future rate cut expectations and to be aware of potential risks related to employment and inflation forecasts[5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, with mixed signals causing increased market volatility. LME, Comex, SHFE, and BC copper inventories all decreased. Downstream demand was weak due to high prices and macro uncertainties. Overall, copper prices can still be viewed as relatively strong, as a decline may lead to downstream restocking opportunities [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina trended strongly with a 0.88% increase in AO2601, while沪铝 and aluminum alloy trended weakly. Alumina's short - term decline space is limited as it approaches the cost line, and aluminum ingots showed narrow de - stocking. After the cancellation of tax rebates, scrap aluminum prices are further supported, and aluminum alloy is expected to continue to run strongly [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel was flat, and沪镍 fell 0.14%. LME inventory increased, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. Nickel prices rose rapidly before and now face correction pressure, but overseas macro situations need to be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The Fed's interest - rate cut, inventory changes, and weak downstream demand were the main factors affecting copper prices. Despite short - term caution, long - term prospects are relatively positive [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina's cost support, aluminum ingot de - stocking, and scrap aluminum price support are the key factors for the aluminum market [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Supply disruptions, price increases, and changes in inventory and demand in different sectors are the main factors influencing nickel prices [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Market prices generally declined, with some inventory changes. For example, the price of flat - water copper decreased by 525 yuan/ton, and the social inventory decreased by 0.3 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: Most prices remained stable, with some minor declines in lead ore prices and inventory [3]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices declined slightly, and alumina inventory decreased by 1.0 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices decreased, and nickel inventory increased in some areas [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算价 decreased slightly, and social inventory increased by 0.55 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: The主力结算价 increased slightly, and LmeS3 decreased by 2.1% [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][9][10][11][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][15][16][17][18][19][20]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][22][23][24][25][26]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][29][30][31][32][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][35][36][37][38][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [40][41][42][43][44][45]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous metal research and have won many industry awards [47][48][49].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The core decision - making group led by Powell is inclined to cut interest rates three times this year, which is considered the basic scenario. Next year, due to the collective reshuffle of the Fed Chairman and regional Fed presidents, the dot - plot has limited reference value, and the Fed's independence needs to be re - evaluated. "Risk - management type interest rate cuts" imply limited interest rate cut space unless subsequent labor data continues to deteriorate [2][3] Summary by Related Contents Fed's Interest Rate Decision in September - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected at the September FOMC meeting, and the pace of balance - sheet reduction remained unchanged. The market focused on the subsequent interest rate cut rhythm indicated by the dot - plot and the impact of political pressure on the Fed [2] - The biggest change in the meeting statement was the clear indication that "downside risks to employment have risen", which was consistent with Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. In the voting session, most members supported a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, and only the newly - appointed Miran called for a 50 - basis - point cut [2] Dot - Plot Implication - The dot - plot implies three interest rate cuts this year, which dispels the market's concerns about hawkish interest rate cuts. Compared with June, the dot - plot in September is more dovish, with the number of interest rate cuts in 2025 increasing from 2 to 3, while the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 remain at one cut per year, and the long - term interest rate forecast stays at 3% [2] - There is still a stalemate in the FOMC regarding the number of interest rate cuts this year. Among 19 members, 10 support three or more cuts, and 9 support two or fewer cuts. Excluding extreme values, the dot - plot shows a 25 - basis - point parallel downward shift compared to June, indicating that the core decision - making group supports three cuts this year [2] Economic Forecast - The latest economic forecast shows that the Fed is "cautiously optimistic" about the economic outlook. GDP growth is slightly up, inflation is slightly higher, and the unemployment rate is basically stable. This year's GDP growth rate is about 1.6%, next year it is 1.8%; overall PCE inflation is 3.0% this year, expected to drop to 2.6% in 2026 and approach 2.1% in 2028; the unemployment rate is about 4.5% at the end of the year and will decline slightly thereafter [2] - Interest rate cuts in this context may reflect that the Fed believes that a faster approach to the neutral interest rate can hedge against the downward pressure on employment and growth without significantly sacrificing price stability [2] Reasons for "Risk - Management Type Interest Rate Cuts" - The current labor market has a dual decline in supply and demand. Reduced immigration and lower labor force participation lead to a decrease in labor supply, and the rise in the unemployment rate reflects a slowdown in job creation. The "low recruitment, low lay - off" characteristic of the labor market makes the Fed adopt "risk - management type interest rate cuts" [6] - The slow transfer of inflation provides room for interest rate cuts. The expected impact of tariffs is a "one - time price - level increase", and companies between exporters and consumers bear the tariff costs. With the weakening of the labor market, the risk of continuous inflation further decreases, allowing the Fed to shift its policy focus [6] Focus on Fed's Independence - Powell emphasized at the press conference that the Fed works based on the latest data and does not consider other factors. The 12 - member rotating voting system requires a strong argument for a single voter to persuade others [6] - When asked about including the "moderate long - term interest rate" as a third mission, Powell stated that the Fed has a dual mission, and the moderate long - term interest rate is a natural result of stable inflation and maximum employment, and will not be incorporated into the policy - making framework [6]

Group 1 - Gold stocks experienced significant declines in the afternoon, with China Gold International down 3.82% to HKD 125.8, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining down 3.74% to HKD 28.34, Shandong Gold down 3.7% to HKD 33.3, and Zijin Mining down 2.22% to HKD 28.14 [1] - On September 18, spot gold fell below USD 3640 per ounce, declining by 0.69% [1] - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the target range to 4.00%-4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024 [1] Group 2 - Huatai Futures indicated that while the Fed's rate cut has been implemented, Powell's comments contained some hawkish signals, which may exert short-term pressure on gold prices [2] - Dongwu Securities noted that although the long-term bullish logic for gold remains intact, there may be short-term pullback risks due to overbought conditions and inconsistent trends in gold ETF fund flows [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, while in line with market expectations, may exert downward pressure on gold prices in the short term, although long-term factors remain supportive for gold [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which was anticipated by the market, but the overall tone was cautious, with a notable dissenting vote advocating for a 50 basis point cut [1]. - The Fed acknowledged a weakening labor market and indicated that inflationary pressures are still present, suggesting a mixed signal of hawkish and dovish sentiments [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, gold and silver prices experienced a pullback as investors took profits, reflecting a market adjustment to the new interest rate environment [2]. - The dollar index initially fell but later rebounded, indicating volatility in response to the Fed's decision [1]. Group 3: Future Projections - Société Générale forecasts an average gold price of approximately $4,128 per ounce for next year, driven by ongoing inflation and a declining interest rate environment [3]. - Bank of America maintains that despite short-term overbought conditions for gold, the market will continue to receive strong support due to persistent concerns over global fiscal challenges and rising debt burdens [3]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook for Precious Metals - The transition into a looser monetary policy environment is expected to favor precious metals in the long run, despite short-term fluctuations [2]. - Continuous central bank purchases and a shift from dollar-denominated assets to diversified holdings are anticipated to sustain demand for gold [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The FOMC meeting was generally in line with expectations [2][6]. - Silver: It is in a state of oscillatory adjustment [2][5]. - Copper: The Fed's interest rate cut limits the price decline [2][10]. - Zinc: It is in a state of oscillatory consolidation [2][13]. - Lead: The reduction in inventory supports the price to oscillate [2][16]. - Tin: It is in a state of range - bound oscillation [2][19]. - Aluminum: It is in a state of range - bound oscillation; Alumina rebounds from the bottom; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][24]. - Nickel: The contradiction in the smelting end is not prominent, and attention should be paid to the news - related risks in the ore end [2][27]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between long - and short - term logics, and the steel price may oscillate [2][27]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of various gold products such as Shanghai Gold 2510, Gold T + D, etc., showed varying degrees of decline. The trading volume and positions of some contracts also changed, and the inventory of some gold products increased while others decreased. The spread and exchange rate also had corresponding changes [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Fed was hawkish and dovish, and gold prices turned down after hitting a new high. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, acknowledged the weakening of the labor market, and mentioned rising inflation [5][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of gold is 0, indicating a neutral state [8]. Silver - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of various silver products such as Shanghai Silver 2510, Silver T + D, etc., declined. The trading volume and positions of some contracts changed, and the inventory of some silver products decreased. The spread also had corresponding changes [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of silver is 0, indicating a neutral state [8]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of Shanghai Copper's main contract and LME Copper 3M electronic disk decreased. The trading volume of Shanghai Copper's main contract decreased, while that of LME Copper 3M increased. The inventory of both decreased, and the spread also changed [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. Peru's copper production in July increased by 2% year - on - year, and the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia was still shut down. Panama was preparing to negotiate the resumption of the CP copper mine. The copper production of Codelco and Escondida increased year - on - year in July. China's copper production in August increased slightly month - on - month, and the expected production in September decreased [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral state [12]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of Shanghai Zinc's main contract and LME Zinc 3M electronic disk increased slightly. The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc's main contract decreased, while that of LME Zinc decreased. The inventory of Shanghai Zinc increased, and the spread also changed [13]. - **News**: Powell said that the call for a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut was not high, and the employment decline had become a substantial risk [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral state [13]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of Shanghai Lead's main contract and LME Lead 3M electronic disk increased slightly. The trading volume and positions of both decreased, and the inventory of both decreased. The spread also changed [16]. - **News**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the signals were hawkish and dovish, causing major assets to oscillate [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral state [17]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of Shanghai Tin's main contract and LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased. The trading volume of Shanghai Tin's main contract decreased, while that of LME Tin decreased slightly. The inventory of Shanghai Tin decreased, and the spread also changed [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The market expected the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the US retail sales in August increased month - on - month [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of tin is 0, indicating a neutral state [23]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract, LME Aluminum 3M, and Shanghai Alumina's main contract changed. The trading volume and positions of some contracts also changed. The inventory, spread, and other data of electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and related products also had corresponding changes [24]. - **Comprehensive News**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the Bank of Canada also cut interest rates by 25 basis points [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0, indicating a neutral state [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of Shanghai Nickel's main contract and stainless - steel main contract changed. The trading volume and positions of both changed. The prices and spreads of various products in the nickel and stainless - steel industrial chains also had corresponding changes [27]. - **Macro and Industry News**: An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting project entered the trial - production stage. There were environmental violations in the IMIP industrial park. Indonesia planned to shorten the mining quota period. The RKAB production approved by the Indonesian government in 2025 was higher than that in 2024. Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia were shut down due to losses. Some steel mills in Shandong started maintenance [27][31]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0, indicating a neutral state [33].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations, indicating a more unified stance within the FOMC than anticipated by Wall Street [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The FOMC's decision was passed with an 11-1 vote, showing strong internal consensus [1]. - The new member, Milan, was the only dissenting vote, advocating for a 50 basis point cut, while other members who were expected to oppose the cut ultimately supported the 25 basis point reduction [1][2]. - The FOMC acknowledged a slowdown in economic activity and a deceleration in job growth, highlighting a conflict between price stability and full employment [2]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The FOMC emphasized the high uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook and the increased downside risks to employment [2]. - The dot plot indicates that most officials expect two more rate cuts this year, totaling 50 basis points, with one member suggesting an additional 125 basis points [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the bond market experienced volatility, with short-term Treasury yields initially falling but later rising due to cautious remarks from Powell [3]. - The S&P 500 index briefly rose before closing down 0.1%, indicating that the market had already priced in the decision [6]. Group 4: Employment and Inflation Concerns - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021, with job growth nearly stagnant this year, raising concerns within the FOMC about worsening employment conditions [3]. - Powell acknowledged that tariffs imposed by Trump could introduce new inflationary pressures, emphasizing the need for a balance between controlling inflation and maintaining employment [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, in line with market expectations, and restarted the interest rate cut cycle. There are still differences on whether the Fed will complete three interest rate cuts this year, and the future interest rate cut rhythm is not clear [1][2]. - The RMB exchange rate has achieved the "three - price integration" of the central parity rate, the spot exchange rate, and market expectations, and is expected to fluctuate around 7.10 in the short term [2]. - The stock index may face callback pressure due to the fulfillment of the positive news of the Fed's interest rate cut, but the downside space is limited due to policy expectations, and it is expected to turn into a shock after the callback [3]. - The bond market was less affected by the Fed's interest rate cut. There is a low expectation of domestic interest rate cuts, but the central bank may use other tools to inject liquidity, and long positions can be bought on dips [4]. - The near - month contracts of the container shipping index have fallen as expected, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [5]. - Precious metals are undergoing high - level adjustments. The medium - to - long - term trend may be bullish, but there is significant short - term adjustment pressure [6]. - The copper price has fallen after the Fed's interest rate cut, and its fundamentals do not support further strengthening [8][9]. - The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term, while alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and bullish [11][12][13]. - The zinc price fluctuates at the bottom, with the supply in an oversupply state and the demand remaining to be observed [15]. - The prices of nickel and stainless steel follow the macro - level guidance and are expected to be volatile [16]. - The tin price is expected to fluctuate around 274,000 yuan per ton [17]. - The lead price is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term [18]. - The steel price may face a callback due to the weakening of macro - drivers and the lack of upward drivers in the fundamentals [21]. - The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate, with the market in a tight - balance state [22]. - It is recommended to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coking coal and coke, and they are not recommended as short - allocation varieties in the black series [23][24]. - It is recommended to try long positions in ferrosilicon and ferromanganese at the cost - line level [24][25]. - The oil price is expected to continue to run in a narrow range in the short term, and short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds should be grasped [28]. - The LPG price is expected to be volatile [29]. - PX - TA is expected to be volatile and bullish due to frequent maintenance rumors on the supply side [29][30][31]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to be in a range - bound state, and it is recommended to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [33][34]. - It is recommended to reduce long positions in methanol [35]. - The PP price has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to go long on dips [36][37]. - The PE price is expected to be in a shock pattern, with limited upward and downward space [40]. - It is recommended to wait and see for PVC [42]. - Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be in a shock state, and it is recommended to wait and see [43][44]. - It is recommended to try short - selling the cracking profit of fuel oil [44]. - It is recommended to try short - selling the far - month high - low sulfur spread of low - sulfur fuel oil [45]. - It is recommended to try long - allocation for asphalt [45]. - The urea price is expected to fluctuate between 1650 - 1850, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [46]. - The soda ash price is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the market is expected to be volatile [47]. - The glass price lacks a clear trend, and it is recommended to conduct range trading [48]. - The caustic soda price is expected to follow the spot rhythm, and attention should be paid to the peak season performance and downstream inventory - building enthusiasm [50]. - The pulp price is expected to be in a shock state, and investors should pay attention to inflation stickiness, economic data, and the Fed's policy rhythm [50]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, emphasizing the downward risk of employment and an increase in inflation. It is expected to cut interest rates twice this year and once next year. The market focuses on the Fed's easing expectations, personnel adjustments, and independence issues, as well as precious metal tariff policies [1][6]. - The Canadian central bank also cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected [1][2]. - The Chinese government attaches increasing importance to the consumption sector, and more policies in the livelihood field are expected to be introduced. The economic growth rate continued to slow down in August, with a significant weakening in the investment sector and a narrowing decline in the consumption growth rate [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB has achieved the "three - price integration", and is expected to fluctuate around 7.10 in the short term. Enterprises with import and foreign exchange purchase needs are advised to lock in exchange rate costs through forward contracts, and settlement enterprises can conduct spot settlement at the upper edge of the exchange rate range [2]. Stock Index - The Fed's interest rate cut of 25 basis points was in line with expectations. After the interest rate cut, the bond yield and the US dollar index first declined and then rose. The stock index may face callback pressure due to the fulfillment of positive news, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to turn into a shock after the callback [3]. Treasury Bond - The bond market was less affected by the Fed's interest rate cut. There is a low expectation of domestic interest rate cuts, but the central bank may use other tools to inject liquidity. Long positions can be bought on dips, and attention should be paid to the central bank's actions [4]. Container Shipping - The near - month contracts of the container shipping index have fallen as expected. The 10 - contract long positions at high levels can be held, and it is recommended to wait and see. The 12 - contract can pay attention to the low - buying opportunities at 1550 - 1600 points [5]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Precious metals are undergoing high - level adjustments. The medium - to - long - term trend may be bullish, but there is significant short - term adjustment pressure. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold existing long positions cautiously [6][8]. - **Copper**: The copper price has fallen after the Fed's interest rate cut. Its fundamentals do not support further strengthening, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [8][9]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term, alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and bullish. It is recommended to short alumina at high prices [11][12][13]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price fluctuates at the bottom, with the supply in an oversupply state and the demand remaining to be observed. It is recommended to wait and see the LME inventory approaching the extreme value or sell out - of - the - money put options [15]. - **Nickel, Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel follow the macro - level guidance and are expected to be volatile [16]. - **Tin**: The tin price is expected to fluctuate around 274,000 yuan per ton, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [17]. - **Lead**: The lead price is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term, with the supply relatively weak and the demand general [18]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price may face a callback due to the weakening of macro - drivers and the lack of upward drivers in the fundamentals, but the hot - rolled coil's apparent demand is relatively good, and there is still some expectation for the traditional peak - season demand [21]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate, with the market in a tight - balance state, and the inventory shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic [22]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: It is recommended to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coking coal and coke, and they are not recommended as short - allocation varieties in the black series. The coal and coke market may be affected by macro - sentiment, and attention should be paid to downstream inventory replenishment before the National Day [23][24]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: It is recommended to try long positions in ferrosilicon and ferromanganese at the cost - line level, as their production profit is declining and the supply pressure may decrease [24][25]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The oil price is expected to continue to run in a narrow range in the short term, and short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds should be grasped. The price is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitics, supply, EIA reports, and the Fed's interest rate meeting [28]. - **LPG**: The LPG price is expected to be volatile, with the supply remaining loose and the demand showing a seasonal decline [29]. - **PTA - PX**: PX - TA is expected to be volatile and bullish due to frequent maintenance rumors on the supply side. The polyester peak - season expectation is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and expand the processing margin of the PTA01 contract below 280 [29][30][31]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: Ethylene glycol is expected to be in a range - bound state, and it is recommended to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies. The supply lacks elasticity, and the downward space is limited [33][34]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to reduce long positions in methanol due to the large port pressure and the difficulty in resolving the 01 contract contradiction [35]. - **PP**: The PP price has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to go long on dips as the supply pressure is relieved and the demand is in the recovery stage [36][37]. - **PE**: The PE price is expected to be in a shock pattern, with limited upward and downward space, as the demand recovery is slow and the inventory removal is slow [40]. - **PVC**: It is recommended to wait and see for PVC due to the weak domestic demand, high inventory, and the influence of macro - factors such as fiscal and monetary policies and anti - involution hype [42]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be in a shock state, and it is recommended to wait and see. Their fundamentals are still weak, and they mainly follow the cost - side fluctuations [43][44]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is recommended to try short - selling the cracking profit of fuel oil. The supply is expected to increase slowly, and the demand is stable [44]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is recommended to try short - selling the far - month high - low sulfur spread of low - sulfur fuel oil. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak [45]. - **Asphalt**: It is recommended to try long - allocation for asphalt. The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by rainfall, and the inventory is being removed. It may have a chance to rise in the future driven by the peak - season demand [45]. - **Urea**: The urea price is expected to fluctuate between 1650 - 1850, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity. The domestic supply is abundant, and the demand is weak, but the second - batch export may provide some support [46]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda** - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash price is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory limiting the price increase. The market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the new production capacity of Yuanxing Phase II [47]. - **Glass**: The glass price lacks a clear trend, with high inventory and weak demand restricting the price increase. The supply may have a slight increase, and attention should be paid to the supply - side ignition expectation, cost - side coal price, and demand seasonality [48]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda price is expected to follow the spot rhythm, with the supply fluctuating due to normal maintenance, the cost remaining stable, and the non - aluminum downstream demand expected to recover seasonally [50]. - **Paper Pulp**: The pulp price is expected to be in a shock state. The Fed's interest rate cut is a "preventive interest rate cut" dominated by the cooling of the employment market. Investors should pay attention to inflation stickiness, economic data, and the Fed's policy rhythm [50].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a reduction in the federal funds rate target range from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year and initiating a period of loose monetary policy [1] - The decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was in line with market expectations, but subsequent signals from the Fed created volatility in the market [2][5] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell characterized the rate cut as a "risk management" move, indicating that the labor market is no longer "strong" and that monetary policy needs to adjust towards a "neutral" stance [4] Group 2 - Powell's remarks included a cautious tone regarding future rate movements, emphasizing that there is no preset path for policy and that decisions will depend on upcoming economic data [4] - The market reacted dramatically to the mixed signals from the Fed, initially responding positively to the prospect of three rate cuts this year, but reversing course after Powell's more hawkish comments [5][6] - Chinese assets emerged as significant beneficiaries during this period, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 2.85%, indicating that the loose monetary policy has injected liquidity into Chinese assets, making them a stable haven amid market turbulence [7]

Group 1: Fed Rate Decision - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% on September 18, 2025, the first rate cut in nine months this year [2][3] - The Fed removed the statement of "robust labor market conditions" and added concerns about employment growth slowdown, a slight rise in the unemployment rate, and increased downside risks to employment [2][3] - This rate cut is a "risk management" cut to address the risk of labor market deterioration rather than inflation pressure [3] - The FOMC dot plot shows that two more rate cuts are expected this year, but there is significant internal disagreement, with less than half of the officials supporting three rate cuts in total [3] Group 2: Market Reaction - After the resolution, the US 10-year Treasury yield initially dropped and then rose, indicating that the market digested short-term easing but long-term interest rate pressure remained [4] - The gold market first rose and then fell, showing that market risk aversion briefly released and then returned to calm [4] - The rate cut eased market liquidity pressure, but due to coexisting employment and inflation risks, asset prices showed differentiation, with the bond market rising in a volatile manner and gold falling under pressure [4] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The median forecast for real GDP in 2025 is 1.6%, up from the June forecast of 1.4% [25] - The median forecast for the unemployment rate in 2025 remains at 4.5%, with a slight change in the range compared to the June forecast [25] - The median forecast for PCE in 2025 is 3%, with no change from the June forecast, and the forecast for future years shows a gradual decline towards the 2% target [25] - The median forecast for the federal funds rate in 2025 is 3.6%, down from the June forecast of 3.9% [25]