Core Insights - In May 2025, both spot and futures prices for industrial silicon experienced significant declines, with spot prices dropping to 7556 CNY/ton, a decrease of 14.41% from April, and futures prices hitting a low of 7130 CNY/ton, down 16.45% [1] Supply and Demand - Industrial silicon supply slightly decreased in May to approximately 303,000 tons, a 4% month-over-month decline, primarily due to maintenance in Xinjiang and capacity adjustments in Yunnan and Gansu [1] - June is expected to see an increase in production from Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan, potentially exceeding 350,000 tons [1] - Demand from organic silicon enterprises showed a minor recovery in May, with an expected increase of 0.5 thousand tons, although procurement plans remain modest [1] - Export figures for April were 60,500 tons, reflecting a 1.64% month-over-month increase but a 9.19% year-over-year decrease, with total exports from January to April at 216,700 tons, down 6.54% year-over-year [1] Cost and Profitability - In June, companies in Sichuan are expected to benefit from lower electricity prices during the wet season, leading to a noticeable reduction in costs, while Yunnan's electricity prices remain relatively stable with weak operational intentions [1] - The prices of silicon stone and silicon coal have decreased, with Taiwan's焦中标价 dropping to 101 USD/ton [1] - May saw a decline in gross margins, with most manufacturers experiencing negative cash costs [1] Inventory and Market Outlook - In May, inventory levels shifted towards the market, leading to a mid-month rebound in futures prices, while factories in the northwest engaged in hedging, resulting in a transfer of inventory from factories to non-standard warehouses [1] - The industry outlook for profitability remains pessimistic, with expected significant production increases in June and high inventory levels contributing to new lows in futures prices [1] - Recommendations for investors include shorting the 2508 futures contract or selling out-of-the-money call options, while traders or upstream companies are advised to sell call options to maintain inventory [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The coal mining sector is currently facing a prolonged downturn in prices, with market sentiment at a low point. However, there are signs of potential recovery as some production capacities are experiencing losses, indicating a gradual emergence of cost support. The industry is awaiting favorable policy changes to restore confidence [2][10] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The coal mining market is experiencing a narrow adjustment with slight supply tightening in major production areas. Downstream demand remains primarily driven by essential needs [13] - Port inventories are continuously decreasing, but there is still a lack of upward momentum in prices due to limited demand from downstream buyers [14] - The shipping market has seen a slight increase in the number of vessels at northern ports, indicating some recovery in logistics [27] Key Companies - Recommended stocks include China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH), and Xinji Energy (601918.SH), all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [9] - China Shenhua is highlighted as a central enterprise with strong performance, while companies like Qinfa and New Hope Energy are noted for their potential turnaround [10] Price Movements - As of May 30, the price of thermal coal at the port is reported at 620 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week. However, the market is characterized by a lack of strong demand from power plants, leading to a cautious purchasing attitude [37] - Coking coal prices are under pressure, with significant declines observed in various grades, indicating a bearish market sentiment [40][53] Market Outlook - The report emphasizes that the coal industry will maintain its critical role in China's energy system during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The overall supply-demand balance is expected to remain stable, with a potential increase in industry concentration [37]

Group 1 - OPEC+ has approved an increase in daily production quotas by 411,000 barrels, consistent with previous months' increases, aligning with market expectations [4] - The decision to increase production contrasts with earlier rumors of a faster recovery of capacity, which had pressured oil prices downward [4] - Geopolitical risks, particularly the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and tensions surrounding Iran's nuclear program, are significant factors influencing oil prices [4][5] Group 2 - The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Iran's enriched uranium production has reached a historic high, raising concerns about potential military applications [5] - Despite short-term geopolitical factors supporting oil prices, the market faces downward pressures due to ongoing US-China trade tensions and expectations of slowing global economic growth [5] - The strategy of oil-producing countries has shifted from "price protection" to "market share protection," balancing fiscal needs with market capacity through gradual production increases [5]

Group 1 - OPEC+ agreed on a significant production increase plan of 411,000 barrels per day for July during an online meeting on May 31 [1][2] - Concerns over multiple oil-producing countries accelerating their exit from voluntary production cuts led to fluctuations in international oil prices, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices closing at $60.79 and $63.90 per barrel, respectively [1][2] - The overall decline in international oil prices this year has been approximately 15%, raising concerns about the future performance of the oil extraction industry [2] Group 2 - Analysts from JPMorgan indicated that the global oil market is currently oversupplied by 2.2 million barrels per day, suggesting that price adjustments may be necessary to restore balance [3] - Violeta Todorova from Leverage Shares noted that if OPEC+ countries increase supply as expected, oil prices could drop by about 10%, potentially reaching $53 to $55 per barrel [4] - The low oil prices pose financial risks to oil producers worldwide, particularly affecting U.S. shale oil producers who may struggle to respond to calls for increased drilling [4]

Price Overview - On May 30, the spot price of 1 tin ingot in Shanghai was quoted at 251,500.00 CNY/ton, which is a premium of 1,200.00 CNY/ton over the futures main price of 250,300.00 CNY/ton [1] - The national tin price list on May 30 shows various market prices for 1 tin ingot, with quotes ranging from 251,500 CNY/ton in Guangdong to 252,750 CNY/ton in Shanghai [2] Futures Market - On May 30, the closing price of the Shanghai tin futures main contract was 250,300.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a decline of 2.87%. The highest price reached was 257,600.00 CNY/ton, while the lowest was 250,000.00 CNY/ton, with a trading volume of 149,442 contracts [2] Production and Inventory - In May 2025, China's refined tin production decreased by 2.37% month-on-month and by 11.24% year-on-year [3] - As of May 30, the inventory of Shanghai tin futures recorded 8,107.00 tons, a decrease of 338.00 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - According to New Lake Futures research, current consumption shows some elasticity, supported by solid basic consumption in key end markets and strong performance in the new energy vehicle sector. However, sensitivity to price changes is high, and the white goods and consumer electronics markets are entering a low season, leading to insufficient overall consumption momentum [5] - There is an expectation of increased overseas mineral supply, but it is currently difficult to transmit this to domestic smelters, which are maintaining low operating rates. Domestic inventory levels are neutral, while overseas inventories are low. The short-term supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, suggesting that tin prices may experience a period of adjustment [5]

5月30日，PTA期货主力合约报收于4700.00元/吨，小幅走低1.09%。 广州期货：后市来看，根据供需平衡表来看，PTA 5-6月仍面临检修及去库带来的供需强现实，短期 PTA在成本支撑及去库格局下，期价震荡偏强。但中期来看，PTA盘面加工费修复，6-7月装置检修落实 执行情况或不及预期，PTA新产能投放远期供应偏宽松预期。随着中国对美抢出口预期在6月下旬逐步 收尾以及内销淡季来临，前期聚酯高开工带来的高库存压力增加，下游工厂三季度减产确定性较大，聚 酯减产及新产能投放带来的供应增量将压制PTA期价反弹空间。 【消息面汇总】 截止昨日，中国PTA开工75.7%，周环比下降1.4%，聚酯开工率91.8%，周环比下降2.4%。江浙样本加 弹综合至82%，周环比上升2%，江浙织机综合开工率升至69%，周环比持平，江浙印染综合开工率至 76%，周环比下降1%。 本周PTA工厂库存在4.15天，较上周-0.23天，较去年同期-0.79天；聚酯工厂PTA原料库存在8.65天，较 上周-0.3天，较去年同期+0.12。 机构观点 据悉，华东一套150万吨PTA装置目前已投料重启，该装置5.6附近停车检修。华东一套30 ...

银河有色 有色研发报告 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：昨日，因市场评估特朗普政府与美国贸易法院裁决之间的较量，伦敦 | | 研究员：王伟 | 金先跌后涨，盘中一度失守 3250 美元关口，随后持续上涨超 80 美元，最终收涨 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 0.95%，报 3317.8 美元/盎司。伦敦银收涨 1%，报 33.3 美元/盎司。受外盘驱动，沪金 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 主力合约收涨 0.96%，报 773.78 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 0.28%，报 8235 元/千克。 | | | 2.美元指数：美元指数先涨后跌，盘中冲上 100 大关，随后持续回吐日内全部涨幅并转 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 跌，最终收跌 0.6%，报 99.28。 | | 期货从业证号：F03110758 | 3.美债收益率：10 年期美债收益率 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年05月30日08时17分 报告导读： 目前政策面利多基本兑现，中美贸易紧张局势缓解也体现在价格中 。房地产方面，核心城市有所企稳，低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 ，新开 工面积仍大幅回落，竣工面积、施工面积同比也依然维持较大的跌幅 。本周我的钢铁公布的数据显示，产量有所回落，厂库下降，社库继续回落， 总库存下降，表观需求环比微幅上升。从需求的季节性规律看，表观需求高峰期已过，随着雨季和高温天气的到来，需求将进一步走弱。限产传闻 对市场提振作用有限。钢企普遍认为，行业确实需要减产，但企业主动减产的动力偏弱，大概率上不会完全执行减产目标。整体来看，目前市场逐 渐由强现实向弱现实转变，弱预期可能还没有发生实质性的改变 。从技术上看，价格跌破了近期的震荡区间，形成向下的有效突破，后市有望延续 下行趋势，短线的反弹不影响趋势的延续。 操作建议： 空单持有 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: May 30, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The pulp market has macro disturbances as the US International Trade Court blocked the April 2 tariff decision and the Trump administration appealed. New import pulp offers are mostly down, port inventory reduction is slow, and the implementation of price increase notices by downstream paper mills is generally ineffective. After the macro pressure weakens, pulp tries to fill the gap, but lacks fundamental support, so it may maintain low - level range - bound adjustment [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: The previous settlement price of the pulp futures 09 contract was 5,194 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,356 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.12%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong market was 5,400 - 6,750 yuan/ton, with the low - end price stable compared to the previous day's closing price. The Shandong Yinxing offer was 6,300 yuan/ton [7] - Supply and Demand Situation: The Trump administration's appeal against the court's tariff decision creates macro uncertainties. Chile's Arauco's May offers for Yinxing and Jinxing are down. In April, the world's top 20 pulp - producing countries' softwood pulp shipments decreased by 7.2% year - on - year, but the cumulative figure from January to April increased by 1.4% year - on - year. China's pulp imports in April were 2.89 million tons, down 11.1% month - on - month and 10.2% year - on - year. As of May 29, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 2.2% month - on - month. Downstream market demand improvement is limited, and raw material procurement is cautious [8] 2. Industry News - Zhanjiang Zhongzhi Paper Co., Ltd. plans to significantly adjust the scale of its high - end packaging new materials project. The new plan includes a 400,000 - ton/year chemimechanical pulp production line, a 400,000 - ton/year chemical pulp production line, and two special paper production lines with a total annual output of 190,000 tons. The project will also build solid waste comprehensive utilization facilities to improve resource utilization efficiency and achieve green development, marking a shift from traditional white cardboard to high - value - added special paper [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp futures - spot price differences, softwood - hardwood price differences, warehouse receipt volumes, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, prices and price differences of coated paper, offset paper, white cardboard, and white board paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][17][25][27][29]

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 0 5 / 3 0 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 技术解盘-股指期货 纸浆期货暴涨原因与后市展望？ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 从原因上看，多因素共同推动。全球经济复苏态势向好，各行业生产活动愈发活跃，像电商行业迅 猛发展，对包装用纸需求激增，促使纸浆需求量大幅攀升 。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 而在供应端，却状况频出。一些主要纸浆生产地区遭受自然灾害，如加拿大因山火影响，2025年针 叶浆产量减少80万吨，导致纸浆产量下降。同时，环保政策趋严，部分小型纸浆生产企业面临停产 或整顿，进一步加剧供应紧张。另外，国际贸易形势的变化、运输成本增加以及能源价格上涨，也 都对纸浆期货价格上涨起到了推动作用。 这一暴涨对相关行业影响显著。造纸企业成本大幅增加，利润空间被严重压缩，中小企 ...