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变与不变—7月政治局会议5大增量信号
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 00:23
国盛证券首席经济学家,熊园 博士 国盛证券宏观分析师,朱慧、杨涛、穆仁文 事件:2025年7月30日,政治局会议召开,分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。 核心观点:本次会议最重要的信号是确定10月召开二十届四中全会,主题是审议"十五五"规划编制建议。经济工作方面,下半年政策将着力各种"稳"、并 重提要努力完成完全年目标,指向短期将更注重抓落实,后续应会有新政策、但并非强刺激、更可能是"托而不举",新提"适时加力、增强灵活性预见 性",则预示一旦形势恶化也会很快出台增量政策。具体看,本次会议还是有不少增量信息,尤其是:再次突出"反内卷",主抓手反价格战、去产能、规 范政府招商;首提"增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性,巩固资本市场回稳向好势头",指向稳股市仍是硬要求、调整就是机会;未直接提房地产,改 为"高质量开展城市更新";未提"以旧换新",强调"培育服务消费新的增长点";删掉"适时降准降息",延续强调"促进社会综合融资成本下行"和"用好各项 结构性货币政策工具",指向下调LPR仍可能;财政政策突出"落实落细",指向短期难以扩赤字、调预算等。我们也继续提示:事情正在起变化,对A股可 以乐观点,债券短期有所调整、可 ...
中金:联合解读政治局会议
中金点睛· 2025-07-31 00:02
Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Central Political Bureau on July 30 emphasized the need for continuous and stable macroeconomic policies, highlighting the importance of maintaining policy continuity and stability while addressing current economic challenges [3][4][14]. Macroeconomic Policy - The meeting acknowledged that major economic indicators are performing well, with a focus on maintaining policy continuity and stability. It noted the potential for increased fiscal measures in the fourth quarter if economic performance weakens unexpectedly [4][5]. - The meeting indicated that the third quarter may focus on the effectiveness of existing fiscal policies, with a possibility of additional fiscal measures if economic conditions deteriorate [5][21]. - The risk mitigation of existing debt continues, with a strong emphasis on prohibiting new hidden debts and effectively managing local government debt risks [6][21]. Monetary Policy - The meeting reiterated that monetary policy should maintain ample liquidity and promote a reduction in social financing costs, suggesting that lowering financing costs may not necessarily require a reduction in policy interest rates [7][20]. - Structural monetary policy tools are expected to play a significant role in supporting weak economic segments and addressing potential risks [7][20]. Consumer Policy - The meeting proposed to cultivate new growth points in service consumption while ensuring the improvement of people's livelihoods, indicating a focus on sectors such as cultural tourism and basic social services [8][33]. - Specific measures include the implementation of consumption vouchers and support for sectors like dining and tourism to stimulate demand [33]. Technology and Innovation - The meeting emphasized the importance of supporting technological innovation and fostering new pillar industries with international competitiveness, indicating a long-term focus on innovation as a key driver of economic growth [9][14]. Market Competition and Regulation - The meeting highlighted the need to deepen the construction of a unified national market and optimize market competition order, addressing issues of disorderly competition and local government intervention [10][15]. - The focus on "anti-involution" policies aims to regulate market behavior and promote fair competition, particularly in key industries [10][15]. Real Estate Policy - The meeting's discussion on real estate was limited, primarily focusing on high-quality urban renewal, reflecting a cautious approach to the real estate market [12][24]. - The emphasis on prohibiting new hidden debts suggests a shift towards more sustainable financing models for urban development [24][27]. Capital Market - The meeting underscored the importance of enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, indicating a commitment to stabilizing and improving market conditions [15][20]. - The potential for increased foreign investment and improved domestic investor sentiment is anticipated as a result of these measures [15][20].
中央政治局会议明确下半年经济路线图
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-07-30 21:18
Group 1 - The meeting emphasized that the "14th Five-Year Plan" is crucial for achieving socialist modernization and that the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on consolidating foundations and comprehensive development [1][2] - The economic indicators for the first half of the year showed a GDP growth of 5.3%, leading to an upward revision of China's economic growth forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) [2] - The meeting highlighted the need for flexible and anticipatory macroeconomic policies to address potential challenges while seizing development opportunities [2][3] Group 2 - The focus on addressing "involution" in industries, particularly in the automotive sector, indicates a shift towards regulated competition and the promotion of consumer confidence [3][4] - The meeting called for effective measures to unleash domestic demand, particularly through initiatives to boost consumption and develop new growth points in service consumption [5] - Specific actions were proposed to support foreign trade enterprises, enhance the attractiveness of domestic capital markets, and stabilize the real estate market through urban renewal efforts [6]
中央政治局会议定调下半年工作,怎么干
Core Viewpoint - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China has decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October, focusing on the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development, while analyzing the current economic situation and deploying economic work for the second half of the year [1] Fiscal Policy - The meeting emphasized accelerating the issuance and utilization of government bonds to improve fund efficiency [1][5] - The focus of fiscal policy will be on the issuance and use of government bonds, with an expected increase in the pace of issuance [6][5] - The total new deficit, special bonds, and ultra-long special bonds for the year amount to 11.86 trillion yuan, with significant progress in issuance by mid-year [6] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains moderately loose, with an emphasis on promoting a decline in overall financing costs [1][5] - There is potential for further monetary easing through tools like reverse repos and MLF, with a focus on maintaining liquidity [5][6] - Structural monetary policy tools will continue to support key areas such as technological innovation and small enterprises [5] Domestic Demand - The meeting highlighted the need to effectively unleash domestic demand, with a focus on expanding consumption and fostering new growth points in service consumption [9][11] - The contribution of final consumption to GDP reached 52.3% in the second quarter, indicating a strong recovery in consumer spending [11] - Policies will be implemented to improve the income capacity of low- and middle-income families, thereby boosting consumption [12] Investment and Economic Growth - The meeting called for high-quality promotion of "two重" construction to stimulate private investment and expand effective investment [9][12] - There is an expectation for infrastructure investment to gain momentum in the second half of the year, with a focus on breaking down market barriers and optimizing the business environment [12] - The service sector is identified as a key area for consumption growth, with recommendations for policies to enhance service consumption [14]
中央政治局会议定调下半年工作,怎么干
21世纪经济报道· 2025-07-30 16:00
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic planning for the next five years and the economic measures for the second half of the year, emphasizing the need for effective implementation of existing policies and the potential introduction of new policies to stimulate economic growth [1][4][5]. Economic Policy Direction - The Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the need for macroeconomic policies to continue to exert force and to be timely and effective, with a focus on "implementation" and "fully releasing policy effects" [1][5]. - Fiscal policy will prioritize accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency, while monetary policy aims to lower overall financing costs and utilize structural monetary policy tools effectively [1][6]. Consumer Demand and Investment - The meeting emphasized the importance of effectively releasing domestic demand potential, implementing actions to boost consumption, and fostering new growth points in service consumption [1][10]. - The contribution of final consumption to GDP reached 52.3% in the second quarter, indicating a strong reliance on subsidies for consumption growth, particularly in the "old-for-new" replacement category [11]. Key Focus Areas for the Second Half - Three main tasks were outlined to effectively release domestic demand potential: 1. Implementing actions to boost consumption while fostering new growth points in service consumption [10][11]. 2. Expanding consumption demand through improvements in living standards, particularly for low- and middle-income families [12]. 3. Promoting high-quality infrastructure construction to stimulate private investment and effective investment [13]. Service Consumption Insights - Service consumption is identified as a critical area for boosting overall consumption, with a need for targeted measures to address challenges such as income stability and supply shortages [13][14]. - Specific recommendations include shifting subsidies from goods to services, optimizing labor rights and vacation policies, addressing educational issues for migrant workers' children, and enhancing public investment in service quality [15].
中央政治局会议释放八大信号 事关财政、货币政策和资本市场等
Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the need for macro policies to continue to exert force and be appropriately strengthened, focusing on effective release of domestic demand potential and deepening reforms [1][4] - The current economic situation is characterized by strong resilience, with GDP growth in the first half of the year reaching 5.3%, surpassing market expectations [2] - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining policy continuity and flexibility to stabilize employment, enterprises, and market expectations [3] Group 2 - The meeting called for accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency, with over 2.2 trillion yuan in new local government special bonds issued by the end of June [5] - Emphasis was placed on structural support in monetary policy, particularly for small and micro enterprises, to stabilize employment and residents' income [5][6] - The focus on expanding domestic demand is centered on promoting consumption, particularly in the service sector, which is expected to play a significant role in stabilizing employment and expanding demand [6] Group 3 - The meeting proposed to deepen the construction of a unified national market and optimize market competition order, addressing issues of disorderly competition [7] - There is a need for timely support policies for foreign trade enterprises affected by external uncertainties, including financial support and optimizing export tax rebate policies [8][9] - The meeting emphasized the importance of effectively and orderly addressing local government debt risks and prohibiting the addition of new hidden debts [10] Group 4 - The meeting aimed to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, focusing on improving investment return expectations and resource allocation [11] - Suggestions were made to lower operational thresholds for capital market support tools and to create new financial instruments to stabilize the capital market [11]
中信建投:下半年仍有降准降息可能
人民财讯7月30日电,中信建投研报表示,7月政治局会议聚焦"十五五"规划谋划与下半年经济工作,释 放多重政策信号。会议明确"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期, 需衔接多重时间节点。当前经济回升向好但基础仍需巩固,政策取向保持宽松同时留足弹性,若三季度 数据超预期走弱,四季度或启动增量工具。宏观政策持续发力且注重"落细",财政加快政府债券发行使 用,货币保持流动性充裕,下半年仍有降准降息可能,政府投资基金精准投向战略领域。同时,着力培 育服务消费新增长点,优化市场竞争秩序,增强资本市场吸引力,鼓励企业家以创新与优质产品抢占竞 争主动,推动经济高质量发展。 转自:证券时报 ...
中国社科院金融所:宏观调控重心在于提振名义经济增长
北京大学国家发展研究院教授卢锋表示,从长期供需结构来看,过去一段时间,中国供给能力持续跃 升,基础设施、新兴产业与高端制造等领域实现阶段性突破,体现了社会主义制度与市场机制协同发力 的优势,但供给快速扩张的同时也将长期隐藏的需求不足问题暴露出来。 为此,我国加大消费品以旧换新政策力度。统计显示,今年上半年,3000亿元专项债支持消费品以旧换 新助推社零提振。市场预计,此举对社零增速可以实现约0.7至0.8个百分点的提升作用。 《报告》提到,从国际比较来看,2024年中国的服务消费占比达到46%,基本恢复到2019年疫情前的水 平,但是跟美国、日本等发达国家相比,我国服务消费还有比较大的增长空间。"当前扩大服务消费应 建立'消费—物价—工资'良性循环,促进物价合理回升。"中国社会科学院金融研究所副研究员曹婧建 议。 展望未来,《报告》认为,宏观调控重心在于促进经济供需平衡和物价合理回升,提振名义经济增长。 一是提高名义财政赤字率,实施通货膨胀目标制货币政策,推动资源更多向中低收入群体、服务消费和 民营科创企业倾斜。二是房地产政策应出尽出,尽快稳定房价预期,化解头部房企流动性风险。三是促 增收、减负担、保休假,释 ...
中央政治局会议定调:保持政策连续性稳定性 增强灵活性预见性
对比4月中央政治局会议相关表述来看,财政政策更加积极和货币政策适度宽松的定调并未改变,但7月 中央政治局会议明确宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力,且更加强调"落实落细",并要"充分释放政策效 应"。财政政策方面,本次会议要求"加快政府债券发行使用,提高资金使用效率";货币政策方面,未 提及"适时降准降息",而是要"促进社会综合融资成本下行",并强调要"用好各项结构性货币政策工 具"。 会议还强调,要有效释放内需潜力。深入实施提振消费专项行动,在扩大商品消费的同时,培育服务消 费新的增长点。在保障改善民生中扩大消费需求。高质量推动"两重"建设,激发民间投资活力,扩大有 效投资。 中国社会科学院金融研究所日前在《2025年第二季度中国宏观金融分析报告》中表示,不同于一般商品 符合同质化供给增加、价格下降的供需规律,服务消费呈现差异化供给扩大价格上升的定价逻辑。具体 而言,服务消费需求增加激励企业扩大差异化、个性化服务供给,价格上涨带动企业盈利改善和就业岗 位增加,有助于稳定就业并提高居民收入,进一步提振服务消费,推动物价循环上行。 落实"存量"也要储备"增量" 据新华社消息,中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议,决定今年 ...
中央政治局会议定调:保持政策连续性稳定性,增强灵活性预见性
21世纪经济报道记者唐婧 北京报道 据新华社消息,中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议,决定今年10月在北京召开中国共产党第二十届中央 委员会第四次全体会议,主要议程是,中共中央政治局向中央委员会报告工作,研究关于制定国民经济 和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议。会议分析研究当前经济形势,部署下半年经济工作。 会议指出,宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策, 充分释放政策效应。加快政府债券发行使用,提高资金使用效率。兜牢基层"三保"底线。货币政策要保 持流动性充裕,促进社会综合融资成本下行。用好各项结构性货币政策工具,加力支持科技创新、提振 消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等。支持经济大省发挥挑大梁作用。强化宏观政策取向一致性。 对比4月中央政治局会议相关表述来看,财政政策更加积极和货币政策适度宽松的定调并未改变,但7月 中央政治局会议明确宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力,且更加强调"落实落细",并要"充分释放政策效 应"。财政政策方面,本次会议要求"加快政府债券发行使用,提高资金使用效率";货币政策方面,未 提及"适时降准降息",而是要"促进社会综合融资成本下行",并强调要"用好各项 ...