Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View On Thursday, the HC2601 contract rebounded with increased positions. The EU announced steel import restrictions on October 7, planning to significantly cut the steel import quota eligible for tariff exemptions and raise the steel tariff from 25% to 50%. The weekly output of hot-rolled coils remains high with a capacity utilization rate of 82.58%, but demand has declined and inventory has increased. Overall, the holiday affected terminal demand, and tariff disruptions affected market confidence. However, the expectation of post-holiday demand recovery, combined with the rebound of furnace materials, may support steel prices. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded from low levels, and the green bar turned red. It is recommended to conduct short-term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,286 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan [2]. - HC main contract open interest: 1,374,586 lots, up 24,718 lots [2]. - HC contract top 20 net positions: -23,217 lots, up 21,390 lots [2]. - HC1 - 5 contract spread: -7 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 46,314 tons, unchanged [2]. - HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread: 190 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2]. Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,370 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - Guangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,320 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Wuhan 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tianjin 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - HC main contract basis: 84 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan [2]. - Hangzhou hot-rolled coil - rebar spread: 80 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 783 yuan/wet ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - Hebei quasi-primary metallurgical coke: 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,960 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - 45-port iron ore inventory: 139.9735 million tons, up 1.9313 million tons [2]. - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 39.06 million tons, down 0.23 million tons [2]. - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 663.11 million tons, up 1.73 million tons [2]. - Hebei billet inventory: 127.6 million tons, up 7.94 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 84.27%, down 0.20% [2]. - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.63%, down 0.25% [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil output: 3.2329 million tons, down 0.014 million tons [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 82.58%, down 0.37% [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil factory inventory: 83.60 million tons, up 2.40 million tons [2]. - 33-city hot-rolled coil social inventory: 3.2930 million tons, up 0.2992 million tons [2]. - Domestic crude steel output: 77.37 million tons, down 2.29 million tons [2]. - Steel net export volume: 9.01 million tons, down 0.38 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 2.8154 million vehicles, up 0.2243 million vehicles [2]. - Automobile sales: 2.8566 million vehicles, up 0.2632 million vehicles [2]. - Air conditioner production: 16.8188 million units, down 3.7777 million units [2]. - Household refrigerator production: 9.4532 million units, up 0.7225 million units [2]. - Household washing machine production: 10.1318 million units, up 1.3575 million units [2]. Industry News - This week, the total inventory of five major steel products was 16.0072 million tons, up 1.2786 million tons. Among them, the steel mill inventory was 4.7256 million tons, up 0.5863 million tons; the social inventory was 11.2816 million tons, up 0.6923 million tons [2]. - From September 29 to October 5, 2025, global shipyards received 18 new ship orders. Chinese shipyards received 13 orders, South Korean shipyards received 4 orders, and Finnish shipyards also received relevant orders [2].

苯乙烯产业日报 2025-10-09 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6818 | -17 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | 181486 | -31574 | | | 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 367418 | 17057 11月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) 手) | 6818 | -17 | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | 336620 | 3839 前20名持仓:净买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | -11914 | 7703 | | | 手) 前20名持仓:卖单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 379332 | 9354 仓单数量:苯乙烯:总计(日,手) | 800 | 800 | | 现货市场 | | | | | | | | 现货价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7120 | -4 苯乙烯:FOB韩国:中间价(日,美元/吨) 市场价:苯乙烯:东北地区:主流 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated and stabilized, with a daily increase of 0.19%. Currently, rebar supply is contracting, but the positive effect is weak under high inventory. Demand remains weak, and the fundamentals have not improved substantially. Steel prices are prone to downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand recovery [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil rose in a fluctuating manner, with a daily increase of 0.37%. During the holiday, the production of plate mills was stable, the supply pressure was high, demand was weak, the fundamentals were weak, inventory increased significantly, and prices continued to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore strengthened, with a daily increase of 0.96%. During the holiday, the overseas commodity market atmosphere was warm, supporting the ore price. However, ore supply returned to a high level, and demand was expected to weaken. The contradictions in the iron ore fundamentals were accumulating. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the ore price was expected to fluctuate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - The WTO significantly lowered the global goods trade growth forecast for 2026 to 0.5%, down from the 1.8% forecast in August. The growth rate of global service exports is expected to drop from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025 and further to 4.4% in 2026. Trade restrictions and policy uncertainties spreading to more economies and industries pose major downward risks [6]. - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a 15% increase from August and an 82% increase from the same period last year. The heavy - truck market has achieved six consecutive months of growth, with an average growth rate of 39% from April to September [7]. - From January to September 2025, the China Trade Remedy Information Network announced more than 120 anti - dumping and counter -vailing investigations or rulings against Chinese steel products by foreign countries. The涉案 varieties include carbon steel alloy wire rods, steel fences, large - diameter welded pipes, etc. [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai and Tianjin are 3,210 yuan, and the national average price is 3,258 yuan. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai and Tianjin are 3,350 yuan and 3,290 yuan respectively, and the national average price is 3,398 yuan. The price of Tangshan steel billet is 2,950 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,150 yuan. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is 140 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap is 1,060 yuan. The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 783 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate is 802 yuan. The sea freight from Australia is 10.34 yuan, and from Brazil is 25.46 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) is 105.29 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) is 103.90 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract is 3,096 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.19%. The trading volume is 823,683 lots, a decrease of 136,145 lots, and the open interest is 1,908,129 lots, an increase of 34,297 lots. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract is 3,286 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.37%. The trading volume is 369,788 lots, a decrease of 141,323 lots, and the open interest is 1,374,586 lots, an increase of 24,718 lots. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract is 790.5 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.96%. The trading volume is 240,766 lots, an increase of 45,587 lots, and the open interest is 459,565 lots, an increase of 12,200 lots [11]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including 45 - port inventory, 247 - steel - mill inventory, etc.), and steel - mill production conditions (including blast - furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, etc.) [13][20][28]. 后市研判 - Rebar: During the holiday, the spot price of construction steel was stable. The pre - holiday supply - demand pattern of rebar continued to improve marginally. The production of construction steel mills was stable, and the weekly output of rebar increased slightly. Considering the poor profitability of steel mills, the short - term production increase momentum is weak, and the supply will run stably at a low level. However, the inventory increase pressure during the holiday is large, and the positive effect is weak. The pre - holiday demand improved due to downstream restocking, but both supply and demand are at low levels in recent years, and the improvement space of peak - season demand is expected to be insufficient. The steel price is prone to downward pressure, and attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand recovery [35]. - Hot - rolled coil: During the holiday, the spot price of hot - rolled coil was stable. The pre - holiday supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coil weakened, inventory continued to increase, the production of plate mills was weakly stable, the weekly output of hot - rolled coil was at a high level, and the inventory was relatively high. There was also off - balance - sheet production transfer, resulting in high supply pressure. The demand for hot - rolled coil began to weaken, and high - frequency indicators continued to decline. Although the output of the main downstream cold - rolled products returned to a high level, due to the accumulated industrial contradictions, it was still likely to drag down the demand for hot - rolled coil. Coupled with limited improvement in external demand, the demand resilience of hot - rolled coil is expected to weaken. The price will continue to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand performance [35]. - Iron ore: During the holiday, the SGX iron ore swap fluctuated higher, and the spot price increased. However, the pre - holiday supply - demand pattern of iron ore weakened. The production of steel mills was stable, the terminal consumption of ore remained at a high level, and the demand performance was acceptable, supporting the ore price. However, the positive effect of restocking was weakening, and the contradictions in the steel market were accumulating. The post - holiday demand may weaken. At the same time, the arrival volume of iron ore at domestic ports returned to a high level, overseas ore shipments were active under high ore prices, and domestic ore supply recovered. The iron ore supply returned to a high level. The ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [36].

Group 1: Rubber Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View Short - term fundamental contradictions of natural rubber are not prominent, and it is expected that the rubber price will continue to fluctuate. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Future attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and the possible impact of La Nina on supply [1]. Summary by Catalog - **Spot Price and Basis**: From September 29th to September 30th, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 250 yuan/ton (-1.72%), the Thai standard mixed rubber quotation decreased by 50 yuan/ton (-0.34%), and the non - standard price difference increased by 205 (56.19%) [1]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 75 (214.29%), the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 45 (-100.00%), and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 30 (-300.00%) [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, Thailand's natural rubber production decreased by 2.00 (-0.43%), Indonesia's decreased by 8.50 (-4.30%), India's increased by 5.00 (11.11%), and China's increased by 12.20. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.58 (-0.08), and that of all - steel tires was 65.72 (0.06). The domestic tire production in August increased by 859.00 (9.10%), the tire export quantity decreased by 364.00 (-5.46%), and the total import quantity of natural rubber increased by 4.60 (9.68%) [1]. - **Inventory Change**: From September 29th to September 30th, the bonded area inventory decreased by 4,663 (-1.01%), and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 908 (-2.11%) [1]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View For soda ash, the overall supply - demand pattern is bearish, and a short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended. For glass, the industry does not have a continuous negative feedback drive for the time being, and over - bearish views are not recommended. In the fourth quarter, the actual implementation of policies in each region and the inventory preparation of downstream industries should be tracked [4]. Summary by Catalog - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: From September 29th to September 30th, glass 2505 decreased by 20 (-1.49%), glass 2509 decreased by 20 (-1.41%), and the 05 basis increased by 20 (15.87%) [4]. - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: From September 29th to September 30th, soda ash 2505 decreased by 17.0 (-1.24%), soda ash 2509 decreased by 17.0 (-1.24%), and the 05 basis increased by 17.0 (25.76%) [4]. - **Supply Volume**: From September 19th to September 26th, the soda ash operating rate decreased by 2.02%, the weekly soda ash production decreased by 1.5 (-2.02%), the float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.1 (-0.47%), and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: From September 19th to September 26th, the glass factory inventory decreased by 67.5 (-1.10%), the soda ash factory warehouse inventory decreased by 4.2 (-2.33%), and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 5.9 (10.69%) [4]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View In the short term, the upward driving force of industrial silicon is insufficient, and the silicon price may turn to oscillation again, with the main price fluctuation range between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and industrial silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan in the fourth quarter [5]. Summary by Catalog - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: From September 29th to September 30th, the price of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, the basis of SI4210 decreased by 30 (-3.57%), and the basis of Xinjiang 99 silicon decreased by 30 (-2.63%) [5]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 40 (400.00%), the 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 10 (2.50%), and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 5 (9.09%) [5]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The national industrial silicon production increased by 3.51 (9.10%), the Xinjiang industrial silicon production increased by 3.36 (19.78%), the Yunnan industrial silicon production increased by 0.14 (2.41%), and the Sichuan industrial silicon production decreased by 0.08 (-1.49%). The national operating rate increased by 6.07 (10.86%), the Xinjiang operating rate increased by 8.02 (15.25%), the Yunnan operating rate increased by 14.50 (44.09%), and the Sichuan operating rate increased by 7.33 (19.83%) [5]. - **Inventory Change**: From September 29th to September 30th, the Xinjiang factory warehouse inventory decreased by 1.40 (-11.63%), the Yunnan factory warehouse inventory increased by 0.09 (2.91%), and the Sichuan factory warehouse inventory increased by 0.07 (3.06%) [5]. Group 4: Polysilicon Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View After the National Day holiday, the polysilicon price is expected to mainly fluctuate within a range. Given the support of the spot price, the fluctuation range may be between 50,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton. Future attention should be paid to the specific schedule and implementation details of the industry's state - reserve policy, the actual operating rate and production reduction implementation of polysilicon enterprises in October, as well as the inventory digestion progress and new order demand of downstream photovoltaic module factories [6]. Summary by Catalog - **Spot Price and Basis**: From September 29th to September 30th, the average price of N - type re - fed material remained unchanged, the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged, and the N - type material basis decreased by 80.00 (-6.30%) [6]. - **Futures Price and Inter - month Spread**: The main contract increased by 80 (0.16%), the spread between the current month and the first - continuous decreased by 205 (-91.11%), and the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous decreased by 60 (-2.40%) [6]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: The silicon wafer production decreased by 0.14 (-1.01%), and the polysilicon production increased by 0.01 (0.32%) [6]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The polysilicon production decreased by 0.17 (-1.29%), the polysilicon import volume increased by 0.01 (5.11%), and the polysilicon export volume decreased by 0.01 (-3.92%) [6]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 2.20 (10.78%), the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 0.64 (-3.79%), and the polysilicon contract increased by 140.00 (1.76%) [6].

期 货 研 究 2025 年 10 月 09 日 铝：保持看多方向 氧化铝：存在分歧 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | T | | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20680 | -50 | -5 | 50 | 220 | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20765 | l | ー | ー | l | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2687 | 17 | 41 | ୧୧ | 142 | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 123088 | -9837 | -210 | -11486 | 21390 | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 190531 | -13327 | -34917 | -46756 | -8413 | | 电解铝 LME铝3M成交量 | 14458 | -2695 | 7 ...

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250930: Low-level Fluctuation [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - On September 29, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated at a low level. The trading volume was 97,757 lots (-65,749), and the open interest was 83,149 lots (-735). LME nickel rose 0.99%. The spot market trading was okay, and the basis premium narrowed. With weak rebound of non-ferrous metals following copper and weak nickel fundamentals and inventory pressure, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [2]. - On September 29, the main stainless steel contract fluctuated at a low level. The trading volume was 163,211 lots (-12,046), and the open interest was 87,251 lots (-11,471). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. Although the fundamentals are loose, there is support at the cost - end and the inventory pressure is not significant, so stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [2]. Summary by Content Nickel Market Futures Market - Futures near - month contract closing price on September 29 was 120,820 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan from the previous day. Futures continuous - one contract closing price was 121,560 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan. Futures continuous - two contract closing price was 121,270 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan. Futures continuous - three contract closing price was 121,440 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan [2]. - Shanghai silver futures trading volume on September 29 was 97,757 lots, a decrease of 65,749 lots from the previous day. The open interest of the active contract was 83,149 lots, a decrease of 735 lots [2]. Spot Market - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price on September 29 was 122,000 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan. 1 Jinchuan nickel average price was 123,175 yuan/ton, down 425 yuan. 1 imported nickel (Russian nickel) average price was 121,200 yuan/ton, down 375 yuan [2]. - Nickel bean average price on September 29 was 123,325 yuan/ton, down 375 yuan [2]. Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory on September 29 was 25,057 tons, a decrease of 96 tons from the previous day. LME nickel total inventory was 231,312 tons, an increase of 1,188 tons [2]. Stainless Steel Market Futures Market - Futures near - month contract closing price on September 29 was 12,620 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from the previous day. Futures continuous - one contract closing price was 12,760 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. Futures continuous - two contract closing price was 12,785 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan. Futures continuous - three contract closing price was 12,930 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan [2]. - Shanghai stainless steel futures active contract trading volume on September 29 was 163,271 lots, a decrease of 12,046 lots from the previous day. The open interest was 98,722 lots, a decrease of 11,471 lots [2]. Spot Market - 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) average price on September 29 was 13,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) average price was 13,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange stainless steel inventory on September 29 was 87,148 tons, a decrease of 357 tons from the previous day. The 300 - series stainless steel social inventory last week was 596,200 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons [2]. Trading Strategies - For nickel, the trading strategy is to wait and see [2]. - For stainless steel, it is recommended to wait and see [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - For PTA, the futures markets fluctuated and closed lower, with the spot market showing average negotiation atmosphere and little change in spot basis. The market expects the basis to have limited upside potential, and the absolute price to fluctuate mainly following the cost side. Attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and upstream - downstream device changes [5]. - For MEG, the price center had a narrow - range oscillation, and the market negotiation was average. Before the holiday, the intention of traders to hold goods was weak. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand situation is expected to turn to surplus, and the fundamental support is weak. Attention should be paid to external factors and device changes [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the given content 3.2. Daily Hints - **PTA Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: Futures fluctuated and closed lower, spot negotiation average, basis little change. 10 - mid contracts traded at a discount of around 55 to 01 contracts, price negotiation range 4570 - 4610. Mainstream spot basis is 01 - 55 [5]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 4590, 01 contract basis is - 62, neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 3.75 days, a decrease of 0.05 days compared to the previous period, bullish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below it, bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: Net short, short positions increasing, bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: Futures prices rebounded with the cost side this week. Some PTA devices reduced production or shut down due to typhoons, and downstream polyester sales improved significantly, with the spot basis strengthening slightly. However, the market expectation is still bearish, and the basis is expected to have limited upside potential [5]. - **MEG Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol had a narrow - range oscillation, and the market negotiation was average. Spot transactions were mainly at a premium of 63 - 70 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, and the trading was weak. Traders' intention to hold goods before the holiday was not high [7]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 4295, 01 contract basis is 71, bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 40.43 tons, an increase of 2.26 tons compared to the previous period, bearish [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below it, bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: Main net short, short positions decreasing, bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: Polyester sales improved significantly last week, and the product inventory of polyester factories decreased significantly. Before the holiday, the intention to hold ethylene glycol in the market was weak. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand situation will turn to surplus, and the fundamental support is weak [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Influencing Factors Summary** - **Bullish Factors**: - Last week, U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased by 607,000 barrels, which was in contrast to analysts' forecast of an increase of 235,000 barrels [8]. - As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the market has some expectations for the start of demand [9]. - Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton device is under maintenance and is expected to resume production in November [10]. - **Bearish Factors**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and attention should be paid to the upper resistance level when the market rebounds [11]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents data from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA capacity, production, import, export, consumption, and inventory, as well as changes in supply and demand year - on - year [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows data from January 2024 to December 2025, including ethylene glycol production, import, consumption, and port inventory, as well as changes in supply and demand year - on - year [13]. - **Price - related Data**: - **Bottle Chip Spot Price**: Shows the price trends of PET bottle chips in the East China market from 2020 to 2025 [15][16][17]. - **Bottle Chip Production Gross Margin**: Displays the production gross margin trends of bottle chips from 2020 to 2025 [18][19][20]. - **Bottle Chip Capacity Utilization Rate**: Presents the capacity utilization rate trends of bottle chips from 2021 to 2025 [21][22]. - **Bottle Chip Inventory**: Shows the inventory trends of bottle chips from 2021 to 2024 [23][24]. - **PTA Spread and Basis**: Includes TA1 - 5, TA5 - 9, TA9 - 1 spreads and PTA basis trends from 2019 to 2025 [25][26][27][29][30][31]. - **MEG Spread and Basis**: Covers EG1 - 5, EG5 - 9, EG9 - 1 spreads and MEG basis trends from 2021 to 2025 [32][33][34][35][36][37][38]. - **Spot Spread**: Displays TA - EG spot spread and paraxylene processing spread trends from 2021 to 2025 [39][40]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **PTA Inventory**: Shows the trends of PTA factory inventory from 2021 to 2025 [42]. - **MEG Inventory**: Presents the trends of MEG port inventory in East China from 2021 to 2025 [42]. - **PET Chip Inventory**: Displays the trends of PET chip factory inventory from 2021 to 2025 [43][44]. - **Polyester Inventory**: Shows the inventory trends of polyester products such as polyester staple fiber, DTY, FDY, and POY from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][48][49][50][51]. - **Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: - **Upstream Operating Rates**: Include the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, and ethylene glycol from 2020 to 2025 [52][53][54][55]. - **Downstream Operating Rates**: Comprise the operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [56][57][58][59]. - **Profit - related Data**: - **PTA Processing Fee**: Shows the PTA processing fee trends from 2022 to 2025 [60][61]. - **MEG Profit**: Presents the profit trends of different MEG production methods (methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, and ethylene - based) from 2022 to 2025 [62][63]. - **Polyester Fiber Profit**: Displays the profit trends of polyester staple fiber, DTY, POY, and FDY from 2022 to 2025 [65][66][67][68][69].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend forecasts and trading suggestions for various energy - chemical futures on September 30, 2025, including PX, PTA, MEG, etc. Some products are expected to be weak in the medium - term, while others may show short - term fluctuations or maintain a certain trend [2][11]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: The unilateral trend may remain weak, with a 1 - 5 reverse spread. It is recommended to take profit on PXN positions. The domestic PX operating rate is 86.7% (+0.4%), and the Asian PX operating rate is 78% (-0.2%). Demand pressure is high, and there is limited upward drive [11]. - **PTA**: The unilateral trend may be weak, with a 1 - 5 reverse spread. It is advisable to short the PTA processing fee on the 01/05 contracts. PTA inventory is rising, and the polyester operating rate is 90.3% (-1.3%) [12][13]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend may be weak, with a 1 - 5 reverse spread. The ethylene glycol operating rate in the Chinese mainland is 73.08% (down 1.85% from the previous period). The polyester operating rate is 90.3% (-1.3%), and the supply - demand balance sheet is currently strong in the short - term [14]. 3.2 Rubber - Rubber is expected to oscillate. The trend strength is 0. As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.47 million tons from the previous period, with a decline of 1.01% [15][17]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is in a weak operation. The trend strength is - 1. The supply of butadiene is high, and the inventory pressure of synthetic rubber is increasing. The decline rate may slow down from a valuation perspective [19][21]. 3.4 Asphalt - Asphalt shows a decline in both factory and warehouse inventories. The trend strength is - 1. From September 23 - 29, 2025, the domestic asphalt weekly output decreased by 30,000 tons, a decline of 4.3%. As of September 29, the factory inventory decreased by 1.1%, and the social inventory decreased by 0.6% [22][33]. 3.5 LLDPE - LLDPE is expected to have a medium - term oscillating market. The trend strength is 0. The cost side strongly supports the PE market. The demand is improving, and the inventory pressure is not significant. The short - term is strong, and the medium - term may oscillate [34][35]. 3.6 PP - PP may be in an oscillating market in the medium - term. The trend strength is 0. The short - term demand has improved, and the cost side has strengthened. The supply - side maintenance has increased, and the market is expected to oscillate before the National Day [38][39]. 3.7 Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is suppressed by weak reality but strongly supported by cost. The trend strength is 0. The 32 - alkali spot in Shandong is under pressure, but the 50 - alkali price has increased. The cost support is strong, and the market may oscillate widely [42][43]. 3.8 Pulp - Pulp is expected to oscillate. The trend strength is 0. The futures market led the decline, and the spot market was divided. The port inventory decreased by 3.7% week - on - week, but the absolute inventory was still high, and the demand did not improve [46][49]. 3.9 Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The trend strength is 0. The domestic float glass market price was stable with partial increases, and the downstream提货 volume was limited [51][52]. 3.10 Methanol - Methanol is expected to oscillate in the short - term. The trend strength is 0. The port inventory decreased by 656,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 4.21%. The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations [54][56]. 3.11 Urea - Urea is expected to oscillate in the short - term with a weakening trend. The trend strength is 0. As of September 24, 2025, the total inventory of urea enterprises increased by 529,000 tons from the previous week, a 4.54% increase. The short - term price may oscillate, and the medium - term trend is weak [59][60]. 3.12 Styrene - It is recommended to take profit on short positions in styrene before the National Day. The trend strength is 0. The industrial chain valuation has declined, and the high - inventory problem is difficult to solve in the short - term [62][63]. 3.13 Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The trend strength is 0. The domestic soda ash market is stable, the supply is high, and the downstream demand is average [65][67]. 3.14 LPG and Propylene - LPG has strong short - term support, and attention should be paid to cost changes; propylene is expected to be weak in the short - term. The trend strength of both is 0. The PDH operating rate is 69.5%, and there are many domestic device maintenance plans [70][71]. 3.15 PVC - PVC is in a low - level oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The market has strong low - level support, but the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the medium - term trend still has pressure [77]. 3.16 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil's night - session price rose and then fell, with the price center remaining high; low - sulfur fuel oil is weakening in the short - term, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market has slightly rebounded. The trend strength of both is 0 [80]. 3.17 Container Freight Index (European Line) - Attention should be paid to the price increase announcements and the fermentation of geopolitical events for the container freight index (European line). The trend strength is not mentioned. The freight rates of European and US - West routes have declined, and the market is affected by multiple factors [82].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, near - term rapeseed arrivals in China are low, reducing supply pressure, and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations lack substantial progress, weakening long - term supply. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. With frequent trade policy news, market trading is cautious, and volatility increases, so short - term participation is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, this year's festival stocking is lower than previous years, and overall consumption support is limited. The domestic vegetable oil supply - demand is still relatively loose, constraining short - term prices. But for rapeseed oil itself, the low oil mill operating rate and fewer near - term rapeseed purchases result in low supply - side pressure. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed restricts purchases, and the supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be tight. The price is supported before there is substantial progress in Sino - Canadian trade negotiations, but volatility increases due to frequent policy changes in Argentina [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active rapeseed oil contract is 10,093 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal contract is 2,416 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan; the closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 614.5 Canadian dollars/ton, down 4.3 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active rapeseed contract is 5,285 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan [2]. - Spread and basis: The rapeseed oil 1 - 5 month spread is 503 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the rapeseed meal 1 - 5 month spread is 93 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the rapeseed oil main - contract basis is 147 yuan/ton; the rapeseed meal main - contract basis is 84 yuan/ton [2]. - Positions and warehouse receipts: The main - contract positions of rapeseed oil are 331,056 lots, down 23,209 lots; the main - contract positions of rapeseed meal are 359,652 lots, down 11,448 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 29,336 lots, down 7,113 lots; for rapeseed meal, they are - 58,070 lots, up 4,493 lots. The rapeseed oil warehouse receipts are 8,057 sheets; the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts are 9,245 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,240 yuan/ton; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,500 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5,700 yuan/ton; the average price of rapeseed oil is 10,305 yuan/ton; the import cost of rapeseed is 7,541.24 yuan/ton, down 3.59 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,390 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,110 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,940 yuan/ton [2]. - Price differences: The rapeseed - soybean oil spot price difference is 1,780 yuan/ton; the rapeseed - palm oil spot price difference is 1,010 yuan/ton; the soybean - rapeseed meal spot price difference is 440 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 89.58 million tons, up 0.04 million tons; the annual rapeseed production forecast in a certain area is 12,378 thousand tons [2]. - Imports and processing: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 24.66 million tons, up 7.06 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit is 959 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 5 million tons, down 5 million tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 5.33%, down 7.73 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Import volume: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 14 million tons, up 1 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 18.31 million tons, down 8.72 million tons [2]. - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 6.85 million tons, down 0.7 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.5 million tons, down 0.25 million tons; the East China rapeseed oil inventory is 51 million tons, down 0.2 million tons; the East China rapeseed meal inventory is 28.93 million tons, down 1.07 million tons; the Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 3 million tons, down 0.5 million tons; the South China rapeseed meal inventory is 21.4 million tons, up 1.4 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil pickup volume is 1.55 million tons, down 2.78 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal pickup volume is 2.79 million tons, down 0.78 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The current - month feed production is 2,927.2 million tons, up 99.9 million tons; the current - month edible vegetable oil production is 450.6 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The current - month catering revenue in social consumer goods retail is 4,495.7 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 21.33%, up 1.43 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 21.32%, up 1.41 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 14.52%, up 0.18 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 14.5%, up 0.17 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 22.83%, up 0.09 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 24.5%, up 0.24 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 11.12%, up 0.32 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 13.31%, up 0.12 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On September 26, ICE rapeseed futures reversed mid - week gains. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures fell 5.00 Canadian dollars, or 0.8%, to settle at 614.60 Canadian dollars/ton; the January rapeseed futures fell 5.00 Canadian dollars, or 0.8%, to settle at 627.7 Canadian dollars/ton [2]. - U.S. soybeans are in the harvest season, and the expected high yield continues to constrain soybean prices. China has not ordered any U.S. soybeans for the current year, and U.S. soybean export pressure remains. Argentina has re - imposed export tariffs, normalizing international market competition. The market focuses on the USDA quarterly inventory report [2]. - The Canadian rapeseed crop yield is estimated at 20 million tons, the highest since 2018, and the harvest is ongoing, which will put pressure on Canadian rapeseed prices [2]. - Driven by bilateral trade agreements and the EU's second postponement of the zero - deforestation law, Indonesian palm oil exports are boosted [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Aluminum continues to trade sideways, alumina's price center is moving down, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20,745 yuan, down 20 yuan from the previous day; the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,649 US dollars, down 15 US dollars. Trading volumes and open interest in both the SHFE and LME decreased. The LME cancelled warrant ratio was 20.27%, down 0.68%. The SHFE aluminum cash - 3M spread was -3.80 [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2,901 yuan, down 41 yuan. Trading volume decreased significantly, while open interest increased. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was -20 yuan [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,325 yuan, down 60 yuan. Trading volume decreased, and open interest increased. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was -55 yuan [1]. Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 614,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The profit of electrolytic aluminum enterprises was 4,502.08 yuan. The import profit and loss of aluminum were negative, while the export profit of aluminum sheets and coils was 2,464.52 yuan [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic average price of alumina was 3,022 yuan, down 4 yuan. The CIF price at Lianyungang was 347 US dollars/ton. Alumina enterprises in Shanxi had a loss of 39 yuan [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 160 yuan. The price of Baotai ADC12 was 20,400 yuan. The combined inventory of three locations was 49,946 tons, up 211 tons [1]. - **Aluminum Bauxite**: The prices of imported bauxite from Australia, Indonesia, and Guinea were stable, with the price of Yangquan bauxite (AI:Si = 4.5) at 550 yuan [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of Shaanxi ion - exchange membrane caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) was 2,830 yuan, up 20 yuan [1]. 4. Other Information - China's industrial enterprise profits in August showed significant improvement, with equipment manufacturing, raw material manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing all performing well. The US core PCE price index in August increased as expected, and consumer spending continued to rise for three months [3]. - The trend strength of aluminum is 0, alumina is -1, and aluminum alloy is 0 [3].