英国央行本周将降息25个基点，甚至可能为自2009年以来首次连续降息铺平道路，以应对美国的全球贸 易战。大多数经济学家认为，在判断美国总统特朗普的关税及其未来计划的不确定性将拖累增长并抑制 通胀后，英国央行将转向鸽派立场。 渐进且谨慎 EY Item Club顾问Matt Swannell表示，周四的会议上，英国央行降息25个基点至4.25%"几乎确定"，这 将是该央行去年加息至5.25%峰值后的第四次降息，也是今年第二次降息。 其他人认为，英国央行甚至可能出现更鸽派的转变。巴克莱银行首席英国经济学家、前英国央行经济学 家Jack Meaning表示，货币政策委员会可能为6月再次降息25个基点做好准备。若这一预测成真，除了 2020年3月新冠疫情初期的两次紧急降息外，这将是英国央行自2009年初金融危机以来首次连续降息。 上周四，市场一度预计英国央行在今年剩余六次的会议中将降息四次，每次25个基点，至3.5%。在3月 20日上一次货币政策委员会会议决定后，市场预计英国央行2025年仅降息两次，每次25个基点，至 4%。 自3月投票以来，世界发生了翻天覆地的变化。英国央行当时维持利率不变，并指出了不确定性。那 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities. It suggests that investors should remain cautious in the bond market, be optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, and consider long - positions in gold futures. For different commodities, it provides specific trading strategies based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment [6][8][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures showed a mixed performance. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures had different price changes. The central bank conducted 530.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations on April 30, with a net injection of 422.8 billion yuan. In April, the manufacturing PMI declined, while the non - manufacturing and composite PMIs remained in the expansion zone [5]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but the current yield is relatively low. The Chinese economy shows a stable recovery trend, and there is room for domestic demand policies. Tariffs may be adjusted repeatedly, so investors are advised to remain cautious, expecting increased volatility [6][7]. Stocks - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures had different price changes [8]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: Although tariffs disrupt the domestic economic recovery rhythm and global recession risks increase, domestic asset valuations are low, and there is policy - hedging space. The report is optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and suggests considering long - positions in stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. In April, the US non - farm payrolls increased, and the unemployment rate remained stable. The US GDP in the first quarter declined [10]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The complex global trade and financial environment, potential central bank policy easing, and tariff impacts are expected to drive up gold prices. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals continues, and investors are advised to buy gold futures on dips [10][11][12]. Steel and Related Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The real - estate downturn suppresses rebar demand, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation is low, and the price has support at the previous low. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and manage positions carefully [13]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support the price. The valuation is relatively high among black - series products, and the price has support at the previous low. Investors can look for long - buying opportunities at low levels and set stop - losses [14][15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. Coking coal supply is loose, and coke demand has improved slightly, but the possibility of price increases is low. The price may test the previous low again. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: On April 30, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures prices declined. Manganese - ore supply may be disrupted, and the supply of ferroalloys is still high while demand is weak. With the arrival of the peak season for steel demand, the supply - demand situation is improving. Investors can consider call options for manganese - silicon and exiting short - positions for silicon - iron [19][20]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil prices dropped significantly. The CFTC data shows changes in WTI crude oil and natural gas futures positions. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased, and OPEC + agreed to increase oil supply in June. The report suggests waiting and seeing for crude oil futures [21][22][23]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil prices followed crude oil and dropped significantly. The market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil has slightly improved. The possible relaxation of US sanctions on Russia and the expected signing of tariff agreements have different impacts on fuel oil prices. The report suggests short - selling fuel oil futures [23][24]. Rubber - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures prices declined. Supply pressure persists, demand improvement is limited, and the cost has weakened. The short - term trend is expected to be weak [25][26]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures prices showed mixed results. The expected increase in global supply and the impact of tariffs on demand are expected to keep the price in a weak oscillation [27][28]. Chemical Products - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures prices declined. Supply pressure has eased marginally, demand is weakly recovering, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [29][30]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, urea futures prices increased. The approaching summer fertilizer - preparation period may increase demand, but supply elasticity is high. The potential Indian tender and domestic export - policy adjustment may affect the price. Investors should pay attention to export changes [31][32]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, PX futures prices declined. PX device maintenance has reduced the load, and downstream PTA demand has improved. The short - term crude - oil price is under pressure, and PX is expected to oscillate with the cost [33]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, PTA futures prices declined. The planned maintenance of PTA devices and the expected improvement in exports may provide some support, but the external crude - oil price is under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate [34]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures prices declined. The restart of coal - based devices and high inventory limit the price rebound. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [35]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures prices declined. The supply load is high, downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to follow the cost and oscillate [36]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures prices increased. The raw - material price is under pressure, and the supply - demand fundamentals lack drivers. The price is expected to follow the cost and oscillate [37]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, soda - ash futures prices declined. Device maintenance in May may cause short - term price adjustments, but the supply is still high, and the market is weak in the short term [38][39]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, glass futures prices declined. The production line is at a low level, inventory changes little, and demand is weak. The post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [40]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, caustic - soda futures prices increased. The demand from the alumina and non - alumina industries is limited, but device maintenance in May may provide some drivers [41][42]. - **Paper Pulp**: On the previous trading day, paper - pulp futures prices declined. Inventory is accumulating, supply is increasing, and market trading is light. The price reflects a pessimistic outlook [43]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, lithium - carbonate futures prices declined. The supply is high, demand is weakening, and the price is expected to be weak [44][45]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper futures prices dropped significantly. Although the ICSG expects a copper supply surplus, the demand may recover after the tariff friction eases. The report suggests long - buying Shanghai copper futures [46][47]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, LME tin prices increased. The复产 of major mines may ease the supply shortage, but the impact of Sino - US trade on the downstream electronics market remains. The price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate weakly [48]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, LME nickel prices increased. The supply of nickel ore is tightened, and the cost provides support, but the downstream acceptance of high prices is low. The demand may weaken in the off - season, and the market is expected to remain in a supply - surplus situation. Investors are advised to wait and see [49]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: On the previous trading day, industrial - silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the market is pessimistic about the future demand. The prices are expected to be weak [50][51]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On April 30, soybean - meal futures prices declined, and soybean - oil futures prices increased. The smooth progress of US soybean planting and the Brazilian soybean harvest increase supply. The demand for soybean oil and soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. The report suggests waiting and seeing for soybean - meal futures and considering call options for soybean - oil futures at the bottom [52][53]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm - oil prices declined. The inventory may increase, and the domestic import volume has changed. The report suggests considering the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [54][55][56]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices declined. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil has changed. The report suggests considering long - buying rapeseed meal after a pullback [57][58]. - **Cotton**: During the holiday, the external cotton price increased. The planting progress in the US and China has been reported. The high - level tariffs between China and the US affect demand, and the domestic downstream demand is weak. The report suggests waiting and seeing [59][60][61]. - **Sugar**: During the holiday, the external raw - sugar price fluctuated slightly. Brazil is entering the production - acceleration period, and the Indian sugar production is lower than expected. The domestic sugar inventory is neutral, and the import volume is low. The report suggests waiting and seeing [62][63][64]. - **Apples**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures prices oscillated. The inventory is low, and the consumption is good. The new - year production is expected to increase. The report suggests waiting and seeing [66][67][68]. - **Pigs**: During the holiday, the pig price increased first and then stabilized. The supply is expected to increase after the holiday, and the demand may weaken. The price is expected to oscillate weakly first and then strengthen. The report suggests waiting and seeing [69][70][71]. - **Eggs**: During the holiday, the egg price increased slightly. The supply is expected to increase in May, and the price may decline after the Dragon Boat Festival. The report suggests holding reverse spreads [72]. - **Corn and Starch**: On April 30, corn and corn - starch futures prices increased. The US corn planting is progressing smoothly, and the Brazilian corn production is expected to increase. The domestic corn supply is under pressure in the short term, and the demand is slightly increasing. Corn - starch production and demand are weak, and the inventory is high. The report suggests waiting and seeing [73][74]. - **Logs**: On the previous trading day, log futures prices declined. The supply is affected by holidays and weather, and the demand from the real - estate sector is weak. The market has no obvious drivers, and the price is expected to be weak [75][76][77].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the significant increase in expectations for monetary policy easing in China during the second quarter of 2025, with a focus on timely reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates to support the real economy [1][2][6] - Analysts predict that the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) may be lowered by 0.5 percentage points, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term funds, while interest rates may decrease by 0.1 to 0.3 percentage points [2][3] - The driving factors for this policy shift include weak domestic demand and external pressures, with a notable decline in consumer spending and investment willingness, as well as potential trade tensions impacting exports [2][3] Group 2 - The policy path suggests that RRR cuts will be prioritized over interest rate reductions, as RRR adjustments can quickly replenish banks' long-term funds without directly impacting the currency exchange rate [5] - If the anticipated RRR and interest rate cuts are implemented, a transmission chain is expected to form, leading to increased liquidity, lower financing costs, and a rebound in consumption and investment [6] - The capital market is likely to be the biggest beneficiary of these policies, with expectations of enhanced valuation recovery in A-shares and structural opportunities in blue-chip and technology sectors [6][7] Group 3 - The outlook indicates that after the policy implementation in the second quarter, improved economic data and increased market confidence may create a positive feedback loop [9] - The collaboration of monetary policy with fiscal and industrial policies is crucial, particularly in guiding funds towards strategic areas such as technology and green initiatives [9] - The anticipated monetary easing is viewed as a critical step for China's economy to achieve high-quality development amidst global economic challenges and domestic transformation pressures [9]

Group 1 - The market has entered a consolidation phase since April 14, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Index showing a pattern of "top and bottom" and remaining stagnant for 12 trading days [1] - There is an expectation for a potential upward breakthrough before the end of June, with low-risk investments in index products like the Sci-Tech Innovation Index ETF being recommended [1][3] - The current market is in a "holiday mode" ahead of the May Day holiday, leading to reduced trading activity as many funds opt to stay on the sidelines to avoid potential market disruptions [2] Group 2 - A potential breakthrough is anticipated before the end of June, supported by expected domestic stimulus policies and a favorable outlook on U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which may create more room for China's policy actions [3][4] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Index is expected to benefit from a loosening monetary policy, which is advantageous for liquidity-sensitive assets like technology stocks [4] - From April 8 to April 28, the Sci-Tech Innovation Index has shown the highest increase among major indices, with a growth of 11.2%, indicating a strong performance in the current market environment [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The current coke market has no obvious fundamental contradictions, but the seasonal demand improvement is approaching an end, and the demand sustainability is questionable. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. - There are still stagflation risks and concerns, which are beneficial to gold. The short - term upward momentum of gold is insufficient, and the downside space is also limited. A mid - term high - level shock with a slightly bullish bias is appropriate [1]. - The demand for iron ore is good, but the supply remains high, and there are concerns about the demand reaching its peak. The ore price is expected to remain in a low - level shock [3]. - The demand for steel is tepid, the steel mills have no signs of centralized production cuts, the inventory pressure is not large, and the raw fuel prices fluctuate slightly. The short - term steel price will fluctuate narrowly [3]. - There is still an expectation of monetary easing, but the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds is imminent, and the bond market supply will increase. The bond market may fluctuate more, and a mid - term shock approach is appropriate [4]. - In the short term, the 09 contract of live pigs can wait for a pullback to go long. In the long - term, the live pig price will fluctuate strongly. Farmers can choose to sell and hedge according to the slaughter rhythm [4]. - The palm oil production continues to grow, lacks news support, and follows the trend of competing oils. The short - term operation suggestion is to sell short on rallies, and the downside space is limited [5]. - The price of domestic soybeans is relatively high, and the auction restrains the rapid price increase in the short term. It is recommended to wait for a pullback and then go long briefly [5]. - The market is waiting for the release of the US first - quarter data. Before the Fed's interest rate cut is realized, the probability of a trend - like market for silver is low [6]. - Concerns about OPEC+ production increase and unclear trade relations between major economies put pressure on oil prices. The oil market has many uncertainties, and short - term trading is advisable [7]. - PX has entered the maintenance season. If crude oil stabilizes, PX is expected to rebound. PTA follows the crude oil fluctuation, and short - term trading is advisable [8]. - The methanol 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or sell short on rallies [9]. - The soda ash 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or sell short on rallies [10]. - The caustic soda 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - The natural rubber market is likely to continue the weak consolidation trend [11]. Summaries by Commodity Coke - The average national coke profit per ton is - 9 yuan/ton. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand has increased significantly. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. Gold - Stagflation risks and concerns are beneficial to gold. The short - term upward momentum is insufficient, and the mid - term is expected to fluctuate slightly bullishly at a high level [1]. Iron Ore - From April 21st to April 27th, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China increased. The demand is good, but the supply is high. The ore price is expected to remain in a low - level shock [3]. Rebar - On April 28th, the domestic steel market prices fluctuated. The steel demand is tepid, and the short - term steel price will fluctuate narrowly [3]. Treasury Bonds - There is an expectation of monetary easing, but the issuance of special treasury bonds will increase the supply. The bond market may fluctuate more, and a mid - term shock approach is appropriate [4]. Live Pigs - On April 28th, the average pork price increased by 1.3%. In the short term, the 09 contract can wait for a pullback to go long, and in the long - term, the price will fluctuate strongly [4]. Palm Oil - As of April 25th, 2025, the national palm oil commercial inventory decreased. The production is increasing, and it is recommended to sell short on rallies [5]. Soybeans - As of April 24th, 2025, the US soybean exports to China increased. The domestic soybean price is high, and it is recommended to wait for a pullback and then go long briefly [5]. Silver - The market is waiting for the US first - quarter data. Before the Fed's interest rate cut is realized, the probability of a trend - like market for silver is low [6]. Crude Oil - Forecasts for oil production in the Permian Basin have been lowered. Concerns about supply and trade relations put pressure on oil prices. Short - term trading is advisable [7]. PTA - PX has entered the maintenance season. PTA follows the crude oil fluctuation, and short - term trading is advisable [8]. Methanol - The methanol price decreased slightly. The domestic methanol start - up is expected to run at a high level, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. Soda Ash - The soda ash price is stable. The start - up rate has increased slightly, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [10]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda price is stable. The start - up rate is high, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [10]. Rubber - The price of natural rubber is affected by supply and demand. As it enters the peak cutting season, the market may continue the weak consolidation trend [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed officials made dovish statements after the game with the Trump administration, and the subsequent release of expectations for both fiscal and monetary expansion in the US will drive precious metal prices to strengthen again. The expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the loosening of monetary policy are difficult to change in the short - term. For international gold prices, a strategy of waiting for the price to fall and stabilize before buying on dips should be maintained, while the start of the silver market needs to wait for further dovish statements from the Fed. The reference operating range for the Shanghai Gold main contract is 748 - 836 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver main contract is 7804 - 8444 yuan/kilogram [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Shanghai Gold fell 0.77% to 785.34 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver fell 0.93% to 8217.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold fell 0.55% to 3330.20 US dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver fell 1.43% to 33.34 US dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.29%, and the US dollar index was 99.60 [2] Fiscal Policy - The US House of Representatives' budget plan passed earlier this month lays the foundation for raising the debt ceiling and extending the "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017". The reduction in the US government's revenue due to tax cuts cannot be filled by tariffs and expenditure control. The US fiscal deficit level will continue to expand during Trump's tenure. The US budget deficit in March was 160.5 billion US dollars, and the cumulative fiscal deficit in the 2025 fiscal year (starting from October 2024) reached 1.3 trillion US dollars, a significant increase from 1.06 trillion in the same period last year [2] Monetary Policy - The Trump administration previously criticized the Fed's monetary policy, but Trump's attitude changed, saying he had no plan to fire Fed Chairman Powell. Fed officials' subsequent attitude changes indicate that there are still conditions for monetary policy easing in the second half of the year. Fed Governor Waller made dovish statements and mentioned the possibility of interest rate cuts. Cleveland Fed President Hamark said that if economic data shows it is necessary, there is a possibility of monetary policy adjustment in June [2] Investment Strategy - For international gold, maintain the idea of buying on dips after the price falls and stabilizes, but there is still room for short - term price weakness. The start of the silver market needs to wait for further dovish statements from the Fed. The reference operating range for the Shanghai Gold main contract is 748 - 836 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver main contract is 7804 - 8444 yuan/kilogram [3] Data Summary - A detailed summary of gold and silver data including closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, basis, and ETF holdings, as well as their daily changes and historical quantiles, is provided [6]

文字早评 2025/04/28 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指-0.07%，创指+0.59%，科创 50+0.13%，北证 50-1.11%，上证 50-0.25%，沪深 300+0.07%， 中证 500+0.38%，中证 1000+0.32%，中证 2000+0.29%，万得微盘+0.01%。两市合计成交 11136 亿，较上 一日+45 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、政治局会议：统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策，持续稳定 和活跃资本市场。 2、3 月份，规模以上工业企业利润由 1—2 月份下降 0.3%转为增长 2.6%，企业当月利润有所改善。 3、美联储金融稳定报告：多种资产估值处高位，美债收益率高企，贸易升至头号风险。 资金面：融资额-29.16 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率+0.40bp 至 1.6100%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率+0.39bp 至 3.1137%，十年期国债利率-0.49bp 至 1.6604%，信用利差+0.88bp 至 145bp；美国 10 年期利率-3.00bp 至 4.29%，中美利差+2.51bp 至-26 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The bond market may evolve in a volatile manner but is more likely to break downward. Long - term bonds are more cost - effective, and it is recommended to maintain a duration above neutral. The bond market has been volatile in the past two weeks due to weak fundamentals constraining interest rate increases and high short - term interest rates constraining decreases. In the future, monetary easing is the general trend, and the supply pressure of government bonds in the second quarter is similar to that in the first quarter. Interest rates are unlikely to break upward significantly, and there is a possibility of a downward break driven by fundamental data [6][23]. Summary by Related Content Current Bond Market Situation - This week, the bond market continued its volatile pattern, with limited changes in interest rates across all tenors. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond rates rose slightly by 1.1bps and 2.3bps to 1.66% and 1.93% respectively. The money market continued to ease, and the certificate of deposit (CD) rate remained flat at 1.76%. The credit bond interest rate also increased slightly. The bond market has been in a narrow - range volatile stage for two consecutive weeks, with the 10 - year Treasury bond fluctuating narrowly around 1.63% - 1.67% [1][9]. Factors Constraining Interest Rate Movements Constraints on Interest Rate Increases - Fundamental pressures have constrained the upward space of interest rates. Due to trade conflicts, external demand risks have increased, and domestic demand has also shown signs of weakening. High - frequency data has weakened since April, and indicators such as EPMI and BCI have declined. However, the slowdown in high - frequency data and sentiment indices is relatively gentle, and the short - term support for interest rate decreases from the fundamentals is insufficient [2][10]. Constraints on Interest Rate Decreases - High short - term interest rates and the non - implementation of loose monetary policy have constrained the downward space of interest rates. After the intensification of external shocks, the market once expected rapid implementation of loose monetary policy, but subsequent policies were more passive and cooperative. The 2 - year Treasury bond rate first dropped rapidly and then rebounded, and the spread between 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury bonds has narrowed to the lowest level in recent years, reflecting a decline in the market's short - term expectation of monetary easing [3][11]. Breakout Directions of Interest Rates Limited Upward Breakout Possibility - Interest rate constraints mainly come from short - term interest rates. Although monetary policy is currently passive, it does not mean that it will not be loose. The Politburo meeting emphasized moderately loose monetary policy. The money market center has shifted downward, and the CD rate has remained stable. The spread between CDs and Treasury bonds has narrowed, limiting the upward space of short - term Treasury bonds and the pressure on the overall interest rate curve. From the perspective of bond supply, the pressure in the second quarter is only slightly higher than that in the first quarter, with estimated net local bond financing of 4.4 trillion yuan in the second quarter, compared with 4.1 trillion yuan in the first quarter [4][13][15]. Possibility of Downward Breakout - With changes in the fundamentals, there is a possibility of an interest rate downward breakout, with fundamental data being the core concern. In April, industrial product prices declined significantly, indicating a further decline in the PPI year - on - year. Falling prices will lead to a relatively certain decline in nominal interest rates. Although high - frequency economic indicators show a slowdown in economic volume, the extent has not significantly exceeded expectations. The overall impact amplitude needs to be determined by subsequent fundamental data. If the fundamental pressure is large enough, reserve policies, including monetary policy, will be introduced, leading to a downward breakout of interest rates [5][18]. Investment Strategy - It is recommended to maintain a duration above neutral. Since the probability of an interest rate downward breakout is higher, long - term bonds are still advantageous, and long - term interest rates are expected to reach new lows [6][23].

2025 年 4 月 25 日星期五 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 尿素： | | 11 | | --- | --- | --- | | 对二甲苯 | PX： | 11 | | PTA： | | 12 | | 乙二醇： | | 12 | | 短纤： | | 13 | | 瓶片： | | 13 | | 纯碱： | | 13 | | 玻璃： | | 14 | | 烧碱： | | 14 | | 纸浆： | | 15 | | 碳酸锂： | | 15 | | 铜： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 16 | | 镍： | | 17 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： | | 17 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 17 | | 棕榈油： | | 18 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 19 | | 棉花： | | 19 | | 白糖： | | 20 | | 苹果： | | 21 | | 生猪： | | 22 | | 鸡蛋： | | 22 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information indicating the overall industry investment ratings in the report. Core Views - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the relatively low current Treasury bond yields and China's economic recovery potential, it is recommended to maintain a certain degree of caution [6]. - It is not advisable to be overly bearish on China's equity market. After event shocks, China's economy and assets will still operate according to their own laws, and the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic [10]. - The long - term value of gold is still promising. It is advisable to temporarily take profit on previous long positions and wait for opportunities to go long [14]. - For various commodities, different trading strategies are proposed based on their supply - demand fundamentals, valuation, and technical aspects, such as short - term trading, waiting for opportunities, or temporary observation in the face of complex market conditions. Summary by Category Treasury Bonds - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year主力 contracts down 0.40%, 0.17%, 0.13%, and 0.04% respectively [5]. - **Analysis**: The external environment is favorable, but yields are low. China's economy shows a stable recovery trend, so it is recommended to be cautious. It is expected that the volatility will increase [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 futures主力 contracts were down 0.16%, 0.53%, and 0.04% respectively, while the CSI 1000 futures主力 contract was up 0.65% [8]. - **Analysis**: Although the current domestic economy is stable, tariffs disrupt the recovery rhythm. However, due to low domestic asset valuations and policy hedging space, it is not advisable to be overly bearish on the Chinese equity market. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic [10]. Precious Metals - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold主力 contract closed at 784.28, down 5.67%, and the silver主力 contract closed at 8,199, up 0.31% [12]. - **Analysis**: The long - term value of gold is still promising. Temporarily take profit on previous long positions and wait for opportunities to go long [14]. Steel Products (Ribbed Bars, Hot - Rolled Coils) - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, ribbed bar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. The spot prices of billets, ribbed bars, and hot - rolled coils are in specific ranges [16]. - **Analysis**: The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses prices, but short - term seasonal demand may support prices. The valuation is low, and there is support at the previous low. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds and pay attention to position management [16]. Iron Ore - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded significantly. The spot prices of PB powder and super - special powder are given [18]. - **Analysis**: The increase in demand and the decrease in supply support prices. The valuation is relatively high in the black series. Investors can focus on buying at low levels and take profit on rebounds [18]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded sharply [21]. - **Analysis**: The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand for coke has improved. The spot price increase is limited. There are signs of a stop - fall. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds [21]. Ferroalloys - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon主力 contract rose 0.82%, and the silicon - iron主力 contract rose 0.32%. The spot prices are stable [23]. - **Analysis**: The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is still high. The supply - demand imbalance is gradually improving. Consider opportunities for out - of - the - money call options on manganese - silicon and short - covering opportunities for silicon - iron [24]. Crude Oil - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly [25]. - **Analysis**: The macro - level changes are large, and the geopolitical risks are high. The resistance of Brent crude at $70 is strong. It is recommended to temporarily observe [26][27]. Fuel Oil - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly, following crude oil [28]. - **Analysis**: The macro - level changes are large, and the cost of crude oil drives the price up. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be tight, and the trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. It is recommended to temporarily observe [28][29]. Synthetic Rubber - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber主力 contract rose 2.96%, and the mainstream price in Shandong was stable [30]. - **Analysis**: The supply pressure persists, and the demand improvement is limited. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [30][32]. Natural Rubber - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the natural rubber主力 contract and 20 - rubber主力 contract rose slightly, and the Shanghai spot price increased [33]. - **Analysis**: The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [33][34]. PVC - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PVC主力 contract rose 0.60%, and the spot price was basically stable [35]. - **Analysis**: The supply pressure eases marginally, and the demand recovers weakly. The market is expected to be volatile [35]. Urea - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the urea主力 contract fell 0.56%, and the price in Shandong Linyi decreased [38]. - **Analysis**: The agricultural demand is off - season, the new production capacity is released, and the inventory increases. It is expected to be weak in the short term [38][39]. PX - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2509主力 contract rose 2.91%, and the spreads decreased [40]. - **Analysis**: The PX devices are under maintenance, the downstream PTA starts to decline, and the cost support is enhanced. It is expected to adjust with the cost and operate cautiously [40][41]. PTA - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2509主力 contract rose 2.51%, and the price in the East China market is given [42]. - **Analysis**: The supply and demand fundamentals have little contradiction, and the external crude oil price strengthens. It is expected to run volatilely and operate following the cost [42]. Ethylene Glycol - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol主力 contract rose 1.27%, and the price in the East China market is given [43]. - **Analysis**: The coal - based devices are under maintenance, the supply is reduced, but the high inventory limits the rebound. It is expected to run at the bottom and operate cautiously [43][45]. Short - Fiber - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2506主力 contract rose 1.94% [46]. - **Analysis**: The downstream demand is weak, and the cost support is improved. It is expected to adjust with the cost and operate cautiously [46]. Bottle Chips - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2506主力 contract rose 1.68% [47]. - **Analysis**: The raw material price recovers, and the supply - demand fundamentals improve slightly. It is expected to run with the cost and pay attention to cost changes [47]. Soda Ash - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the 2509主力 contract of soda ash closed at 1373 yuan/ton, up 3.39% [48]. - **Analysis**: The supply is high, the new orders are average, and the downstream procurement is not active. It is expected to remain weak in the short term [49]. Glass - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the 2509主力 contract of glass closed at 1154 yuan/ton, up 2.21% [50]. - **Analysis**: The production line is at a low level, the inventory changes little, and the market sentiment is weak due to tariff impacts [50]. Caustic Soda - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the 2509主力 contract of caustic soda closed at 2496 yuan/ton, up 0.65% [51]. - **Analysis**: Some large - scale devices are under maintenance, and the profit improves. The alumina has limited positive drivers, and the market turns weak again [52]. Pulp - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the 2507主力 contract of pulp closed at 5402 yuan/ton, up 0.93% [53]. - **Analysis**: The inventory accumulates slightly, the downstream starts vary, and the market is affected by tariff news. It is expected to be volatile at a low level [53]. Lithium Carbonate - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate主力 contract rose 1.14% to 68980 yuan/ton [54]. - **Analysis**: The macro - events affect the market, the supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates. It is expected to run weakly [54][55]. Copper - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated upwards [56]. - **Analysis**: The Sino - US tariffs are expected to be reduced, and the copper price is expected to be bullish. It is recommended to take long positions [56][57]. Tin - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, tin rose 1.11% to 261480 yuan/ton [58]. - **Analysis**: The tin price fluctuates due to tariffs. The supply and demand factors are intertwined. It is expected to run volatilely, and control risks in the short term [58][59]. Nickel - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the nickel price fell 0.55% to 125120 yuan/ton [60]. - **Analysis**: The market sentiment is pessimistic due to tariffs. The supply is tightened, and the cost is supported, but the demand is weak. It is recommended to control risks and observe cautiously [60]. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the industrial silicon and polysilicon futures fell significantly, and the spot prices decreased [61]. - **Analysis**: The fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to short at high levels on rebounds [61][62]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract was flat, and the soybean oil main contract rose 1.19%. The spot prices increased [63]. - **Analysis**: The trade concerns ease, the supply is loose, and the demand is expected to increase slightly. Observe for soybean meal and consider out - of - the - money call options for soybean oil [63][64]. Palm Oil - **Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil closed up, and the domestic import volume increased in March [65]. - **Analysis**: It is recommended to temporarily observe [67]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Performance**: The Canadian rapeseed rose for the second consecutive day. The domestic import volume of rapeseed oil increased, while that of rapeseed and rapeseed meal decreased in March [68]. - **Analysis**: Consider the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean and rapeseed products [69]. Cotton - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton rebounded slightly, and the external cotton rose overnight [70]. - **Analysis**: The tariffs affect the demand, and the domestic downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to short at high levels on rebounds for the far - month contracts [72][73]. Sugar - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou sugar fell slightly, and the external raw sugar fell slightly [74]. - **Analysis**: The international raw sugar is affected by multiple factors, and the domestic supply pressure is not large. It is recommended to observe [76][77]. Apples - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated at a high level [78]. - **Analysis**: The inventory is low, the consumption is good, and the spot price is strong. It is recommended to go long at low levels after corrections [78][80]. Live Pigs - **Performance**: The national average price of live pigs was flat. The futures主力 contract fell 0.93% [81][82]. - **Analysis**: The group - farmed pigs' planned output in April has limited increase, and the consumption is in the off - season. The spot price may be supported in the short term, and the far - month contracts may be affected by cost expectations [82]. Eggs - **Performance**: The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas was flat. The cost and profit are in a narrow - range oscillation [83]. - **Analysis**: The supply of eggs is expected to increase in April, and the consumption is in the off - season. Consider the opportunity for reverse spreads [83][84]. Corn - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the corn主力 contract rose 0.35%. The spot prices in the north and south ports are given [85]. - **Analysis**: The domestic corn supply surplus eases, and the demand increases slightly. The short - term supply pressure exists. It is recommended to observe [85][86]. Logs - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the 2507主力 contract of logs closed at 798.5 yuan/ton, down 0.13% [87]. - **Analysis**: The tropical cyclone affects the shipment, and the spot price is weak. The inventory is relatively neutral, and the real - estate demand is weak [87].