最近的国际贸易圈可真是十分热闹！半个月之前，石破茂与特朗普达成了贸易协议，可谁也没有料到，后来事情会发生如此大的转折。那份被外界当作"缓 和剂"的协议，转眼之间就成了废纸一张。 而美方这一番操作，简直就是"挖坑绊人"。当初许下的"关税减免"承诺，不仅没兑现，反倒越加越多。 让华盛顿没有想到的是，一向低调的石破茂这次竟然如此强硬。在一场记者会上，他掷地有声地表示，任何把汽车产业排除在外的协议，都不符合日本的根 本利益。 当然，石破茂的底气也不是凭空而来，就像之前所说的，汽车产业对于日本经济来说就是"顶梁柱"，汽车行业直接或间接地解决了日本大约560万人的就业 问题。 从零部件供应商到销售网络、从研发中心到生产基地，形成了一条庞大的产业链。每年汽车产业的起伏都会给日本GDP带来0.6%左右的涨跌。 于是，东京方面在发现协议执行与预期存在巨大差异后，也一改以往的忍让态度，采取了出人意料的措施。 七月初，美日"关税争端"持续升级，美方最终实施了"三重关税组合"措施。 首先，是10%一视同仁的基础关税，这还勉强算是国际贸易的"惯例"；接下来的24%惩罚性关税，显然是有针对的；最后的25%汽车关税，直接"掐"到了日 本经 ...

政策转往往会催生出新格局，在加拿大政府宣布对中国电动汽车加征100%关税的那一刻起，加拿大作 为中国主要油菜籽供应国的地位就已经面临威胁。 中国海关数据显示，7月份中国从加拿大进口的油菜籽同比下降55%，至17.3万吨，为2023年7月以来的 最低水平。这些进口货物的价值也同比暴跌49%，至1.0206亿美元。 事情的起因是加拿大单方面的贸易保护主义行为。在中国需求暴跌之前，加拿大宣布自2024年10月1日 起对中国电动车、钢铝产品加征高额关税。而为了回应加拿大的这一"行为"，中方于今年3月份决定对 加拿大农产品征收高额关税，其中包括对油菜籽征收100%的关税。 加拿大曾是中国最大的油菜籽进口来源国。 官方数据显示，2023年和2024年，加拿大供应了中国全部 的油菜籽进口。但现在，中国已经开始探索其他选择。 一直以来，澳大利亚都不是中国主要的油菜籽出口国，主要是因为其产品未能满足中国的进口标准。官 方数据显示，中国上一次大规模采购澳大利亚油菜籽是在2021年1月，当时进口了9.31万吨油菜籽，价 值4165万美元。 相比之下，欧洲才是澳大利亚油菜籽的最大市场。在过去12个月里，欧洲市场占澳大利亚出口的 63 ...

美国劳工部8月21日周四公布的数据显示，截至8月16日当周，美国首次申请失业救济人数增加1.1万 人，达到23.5万，为今年6月20日以来最高，且高于预期22.5万人和前值22.4万人。四周平均值(用来平 滑波动)也升至22.625万人，为一个月来的最高值。与此同时，美国8月9日当周续请失业救济人数增加 了3万人，达到197.2万人，同样高于预期196万人和前值195.3万人，为自2021年11月以来的最高水平。 美联储官员周四对下月降息的可能性态度冷淡，这为鲍威尔在怀俄明州杰克森霍尔年会上的讲话奠定基 础。 分析称，续请人数上升，说明失业者再就业难度加大。首申人数持续上升，说明裁员可能正在增加。结 合此前7月非农就业数据也显示，招聘放缓、失业率上升，这些都表明劳动力市场较此前走软。目前的 就业市场呈现出一种"没有大量裁员，但招聘也很冷淡"的局面，企业正在应对特朗普总统的贸易保护主 义政策，该政策已将美国的平均进口关税提高到一个世纪以来的最高水平。 7月就业报告意外疲软，加上5月和6月的招聘数据大幅下调，提升借贷成本即将下调的预期，交易员甚 至预估9月的下一次会议将大幅降息。不过此后，其他政策制定者的谨慎言论 ...

Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on European Exports - The EU's exports to the US fell by over 10% year-on-year in June, indicating a significant decline in trade due to new tariffs [1][2] - The tariffs imposed by the US include 50% on steel and aluminum, 25% on automobiles, and 15% on most goods, severely affecting European businesses [1][2] - The Eurozone's exports decreased by 2.4% month-on-month in June, while imports increased by 3%, leading to a reduction in trade surplus from €15.6 billion to €2.8 billion [2] Group 2: Consequences for Specific Industries - German car manufacturers face a dramatic increase in costs, with a 15% tariff on a $100,000 vehicle resulting in an additional $20,000 in duties, making it less competitive [2] - Steel companies are particularly hard-hit, as the 50% tariff transforms profitable operations into loss-making ventures [2][8] - Companies that stockpiled goods before the tariffs are now facing a lack of new orders, leading to excess inventory and potential cash flow issues [2][18] Group 3: Currency Effects on Trade - The strengthening Euro has compounded the impact of tariffs, making European goods more expensive in the US market [4] - For example, a €10 bottle of French wine has seen its price rise from $10.5 to $12.88 due to currency fluctuations and tariffs, reducing its competitiveness against cheaper alternatives [4] Group 4: US Strategic Intentions - The US tariffs appear to be a strategic move to protect domestic industries, particularly the automotive sector, by making European cars more expensive [6][8] - The tariffs are seen as a way to limit European market share in the US, benefiting American manufacturers at the expense of European competitors [6][8] Group 5: Global Trade Implications - The tariffs are expected to disrupt global trade, affecting not only Europe but also Asian suppliers who rely on European exports [11][13] - The International Monetary Fund has warned that a 1% increase in global tariffs could reduce world economic growth by 0.5%, highlighting the broader economic risks [13] Group 6: European Response - The EU is preparing retaliatory measures, including tariffs on American products such as bourbon and Levi's jeans, targeting key Republican constituencies [16][18] - European companies are adjusting their supply chains in response to tariffs, with some relocating production to avoid additional costs [18] Group 7: Long-term Outlook - The ongoing tariff conflict is likely to result in no winners, as both sides may suffer economically from the trade barriers [20][22] - Historical evidence suggests that trade protectionism leads to negative outcomes, as seen during the Great Depression, emphasizing the need for cooperation over conflict [22]

MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ A股市场方面，今天三大指数早盘横盘震荡，午后集体回落，尾盘指数再度反弹，沪指成功翻红。对于 后市，东北证券首席投资顾问郭峰表示，A股板块分化或进一步加剧，建议投资者适当获利回吐。全球 市场方面，最新的数据显示，日本7月出口总额约为9.3万亿日元，同比下降2.6%，创下自2021年2月以 来的最大降幅。这一降幅超过了分析师此前预测的2.1%，也远超6月0.5%的降幅。目前，日本单月对外 出口已连续4个月呈下滑态势。面对全球贸易保护主义升温与主要经济体需求变化，日本出口还能撑多 久？又该如何寻找新的增长支点？《财经夜行线》邀请到上海社会科学院国际问题研究所助理研究员王 梦雪共同讨论。 ...

Group 1 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to 235,000, the highest level since June 20, indicating a slowdown in the labor market [1] - The four-week average of initial claims increased to 226,250, marking the highest level in a month [1] - Continuing claims for unemployment benefits rose by 30,000 to 1.972 million, the highest level since November 2021, suggesting increased difficulty for unemployed individuals to find new jobs [3] Group 2 - The rise in initial claims and continuing claims suggests an increase in layoffs and a cooling job market, as evidenced by previous non-farm payroll data showing slower hiring and rising unemployment rates [3] - Despite the seasonal adjustment showing an increase in initial claims, unadjusted data indicated a decline, reaching the lowest level in 2025, primarily driven by decreases in California, Michigan, and Texas [4] - California saw the largest drop in initial claims, decreasing by 1,948, while Kentucky, Massachusetts, and Iowa experienced increases, with Kentucky having the highest rise of approximately 2,000 claims [4]

中国海关数据显示，7月份中国从加拿大进口的油菜籽同比下降55%，至17.3万吨，为2023年7月以来的 最低水平。这些进口货物的价值也同比暴跌49%，至1.0206亿美元。 事情的起因是加拿大单方面的贸易保护主义行为。在中国需求暴跌之前，加拿大宣布自2024年10月1日 起对中国电动车、钢铝产品加征高额关税。而为了回应加拿大的这一"行为"，中方于今年3月份决定对 加拿大农产品征收高额关税，其中包括对油菜籽征收100%的关税。 加拿大曾是中国最大的油菜籽进口来源国。 官方数据显示，2023年和2024年，加拿大供应了中国全部 的油菜籽进口。但现在，中国已经开始探索其他选择。 上个月中澳油菜籽贸易的官方数据尚未公布，但澳大利亚粮食行业的消息人士表示，中国已经开始采 购。一位业内人士表示："中国正在从澳大利亚试购约5万吨油菜籽，作为试运。" 来源：金投网 政策转往往会催生出新格局，在加拿大政府宣布对中国电动汽车加征100%关税的那一刻起，加拿大作 为中国主要油菜籽供应国的地位就已经面临威胁。 一直以来，澳大利亚都不是中国主要的油菜籽出口国，主要是因为其产品未能满足中国的进口标准。官 方数据显示，中国上一次大规模采购 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that while the US remains an important trade partner for Europe, there is a need for Europe to diversify its trade relationships and leverage its export-oriented economy [1][5] - EU exports to the US have significantly slowed down, with a 10% year-on-year decline in June, reaching a low of approximately 40 billion euros (about 46.8 billion USD) [1][3] - Germany's trade surplus with the US has decreased by 12.8% year-on-year, attributed to the competitive pressure from US tariffs [1][3] Group 2 - The EU's trade surplus has narrowed primarily due to weak chemical exports, a key sector for many European economies [3] - The introduction of various tariffs, including a 15% tariff on most EU goods, has negatively impacted Germany's automotive and machinery exports, which fell by 8.6% and 7.9% respectively in the first half of the year [4] - The US's recent expansion of tariffs to include 407 product categories, such as wind turbines and heavy machinery, complicates the pricing and competitiveness of European exports [4] Group 3 - The European Central Bank's President, Lagarde, indicated that the eurozone's economic growth is expected to slow down in the third quarter due to the impact of US tariffs [5] - The Oxford Economics report noted a significant decline in EU exports to the US since April, with current import levels from the EU falling below the average for 2024 [5] - Despite the challenges, the eurozone showed resilience with a 0.1% growth in the second quarter, although future export recovery remains uncertain due to a strong euro and overall market volatility [6] Group 4 - The EU is actively seeking to diversify its trade relationships by initiating or reviving trade negotiations with developed and emerging markets, including the UAE and New Zealand [6] - There are ongoing discussions for a free trade agreement with India, aiming for a balanced and mutually beneficial deal by the end of the year [6] - The need for regional cooperation in response to rising US trade barriers is emphasized, particularly in industries like semiconductors, where global collaboration is essential [7]

Group 1 - South Korea's exports showed a year-on-year increase of 7.6% in the first 20 days of August, surpassing the 5.8% growth in July [1] - The trade surplus for the same period was recorded at $833 million, with imports slightly increasing by 0.4% [1] - The recent trade agreement between the US and South Korea capped tariffs on Korean goods at 15%, which is lower than the previously threatened 25% [1] Group 2 - The automotive sector faces uncertainty as tariffs remain at 25% until a formal adjustment is made by the US [2] - Key export products such as semiconductors saw a growth of nearly 30%, while automotive exports increased by 22% [2] - Exports to the US decreased by 2.7%, while exports to China grew by 2.7%, and exports to Thailand and Singapore surged by 59% and 82% respectively [2]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Dynamics - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% on May 8, 2025, signaling a potential future rate cut despite a 0.9% month-on-month increase in the PPI for July, which exceeded market expectations [1][3] - The July PPI reached its highest level since June 2022, indicating ongoing supply chain cost pressures, while non-farm employment growth was only 73,000, suggesting signs of a cooling labor market [3] - The dovish signals from the Federal Reserve have led to a rebound in global stock markets, but a weakening dollar may exacerbate capital flow pressures in emerging markets [3] Group 2: Trump's Criticism of the Federal Reserve - On August 19, 2025, Trump criticized Powell for maintaining high interest rates, claiming it harms the housing industry, and called for his resignation while suggesting a replacement [7] - Trump advocated for significant rate cuts, proposing a reduction of 300 basis points to stimulate the real estate market and economic growth, contrasting with the Fed's cautious approach to inflation [7] - Trump's scrutiny of the Federal Reserve's budget, particularly the renovation costs exceeding $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion, has raised questions about its management transparency [7] Group 3: European Central Bank Warnings - ECB President Lagarde indicated that U.S. tariffs on European goods could reduce Eurozone GDP by approximately 0.3 percentage points in the first year, with potential retaliatory measures from the EU increasing the impact to 0.5 percentage points [10][12] - The tariffs are expected to directly affect Eurozone manufacturing exports and temporarily raise inflation by about 0.5 percentage points, while long-term growth may be suppressed [12] - The Eurozone's economic growth forecast for 2025 is only 0.9%, with core inflation remaining low at 0.9%, limiting the ability to respond to imported inflation through interest rate hikes [12] Group 4: Interconnections and Global Impact - The conflict between Trump's rate cut demands and the Fed's data-dependent strategy increases policy uncertainty, affecting global confidence in dollar assets [15] - U.S. tariff policies are dragging down Eurozone growth through trade channels, creating a "lose-lose" situation as retaliatory measures raise import costs [15] - Emerging markets are compelled to raise interest rates to combat imported inflation, while the Eurozone faces a "low growth-low inflation" trap, limiting monetary policy options [15]