纽约联储周一发布的一份报告显示，美国人对未来通胀路径的焦虑在5月有所缓解，同时他们对个人财务状况的看法也更加乐观。 通胀预期的缓和是在价格压力未来高度不确定的背景下发生的。经济学家和政策制定者普遍预计，特朗普政府对进口商品大幅且不断变 化的加税将推高通胀，同时抑制就业和经济增长。主要问题在于，这种通胀上升是一次性的，还是会形成更持久的趋势。 报告发现，受访者预期汽油、租金、医疗和大学教育的价格涨幅将放缓，但预计一年后食品成本将上涨5.5%，这将是自2023年10月以来 的最高水平。与此同时，他们对未来一年房价上涨的预期为3%，低于4月的3.3%。 纽约联储：5月通胀预期全面下降 目前尚不清楚这些关税将对经济产生多大影响，尤其是在特朗普出人意料地上调或下调进口关税的情况下。纽约联储报告的调查期覆盖 了一些重大关税调整期，5月数据的缓和可能会增强官员们的信心，即通胀不会持续攀升至更高水平。 这家地区性联储在其《消费者预期调查》中指出，上个月，所有期限的通胀预期均有所回落。受访者预计，一年后通胀率为3.2%，低于 4月的3.6%；三年后通胀率预计为3%，低于4月的3.2%；五年后通胀率预计为2.6%，低于4月调查中 ...

商 品 研 2025 年 06 月 10 日 铜：伦铜现货走强，支撑价格 【宏观及行业新闻】 宏观方面，美国纽约联储发布的 5 月最新调查结果显示，一年期通胀预期从 4 月的 3.6%降至 3.2%， 降幅最大。三年期通胀预期从 3.2%降至 3%。五年期通胀预期从 2.7%降至 2.6%。（华尔街见闻） 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei015111@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 78,910 | -0.03% | 79330 | 0.53% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,769 | 1.01% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 75,321 | -52,960 | 202,306 | -1,812 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 14,115 | -1,488 | 285,000 | - ...

Group 1 - Hong Kong will maintain the peg of the Hong Kong dollar to the US dollar, while enhancing its position as a global offshore RMB business center, with plans to introduce more RMB products for overseas investors [1] - The US Senate plans to propose significant revisions to Trump's $3 trillion economic plan, aiming for enactment before July 4, despite criticisms from figures like Elon Musk [1] - The New York Fed's survey indicates a decline in US consumer inflation expectations for May, with the one-year expectation dropping from 3.6% to 3.2%, marking the first decline since 2024 [2] Group 2 - Japan's Cabinet Office revised the first quarter GDP contraction to a 0.2% annual rate, better than the initial estimate of 0.7%, which may support the Bank of Japan's cautious stance [2] - The Japanese government is considering repurchasing previously issued ultra-long bonds at low interest rates, in response to rising yields [3] - Japanese investors sold a record ¥1.48 trillion in German sovereign bonds in April, the largest monthly reduction since 2014, and also sold ¥1.07 trillion in US sovereign bonds, the largest reduction since October of the previous year [3] Group 3 - US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones remaining flat at 42,761.76 points, the S&P 500 rising by 0.09% to 6,005.88 points, and the Nasdaq increasing by 0.31% to 19,591.24 points [4] - US Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 4.15 basis points to 3.993%, and the 10-year yield down 3.18 basis points to 4.474% [4] Group 4 - International oil prices strengthened, with US crude oil main contract rising by 1.24% to $65.38 per barrel, and Brent crude oil main contract increasing by 0.96% to $67.11 per barrel [5] - The US dollar index fell by 0.19% to 99.01, while non-US currencies generally appreciated against the dollar [5]

美国5月通胀预期全面下降，金价企稳反弹 2. 地缘方面，根据新华社报道，伊朗最高国家安全委员会9日发表声明说，若伊朗遭以色列袭击，以色 列的秘密核设施将成为伊朗的打击目标。据美国媒体日前报道，有情报表明以色列正准备袭击伊朗核设 施。由此可见，中东地区的地缘冲突一触即发，市场避险情绪仍较浓，短期金价或维持震荡偏强运行， 关注周三美CPI数据指引。 金十期货特约光大期货点评：6月9日，COMEX黄金止跌企稳，小幅探涨，报收3346.7美元/盎司，涨幅 0.00%。国内SHFE金夜盘低开高走，报收776.66元/克，涨幅0.18%。 1. 当地时间6月9日下午，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国伦敦举行。受到谈判利好预期、关税调低预 期影响，周一美国纽约联储发布的5月最新调查结果显示，5月美国消费者未来通胀预期全面下降，为 2024年来首次，其中一年期通胀预期降幅最大，从4月的3.6%降至3.2%，三年期通胀预期从3.2%降至 3%。五年期通胀预期从2.7%降至2.6%。通胀预期虽仍高于美联储2%目标，但已明显回落。市场预期在 本周三公布的美国5月CPI将跟随回落，降息预期升温，美债收益率普遍跌超3个基点，略微回吐非农 ...

Core Insights - The latest survey from the New York Fed indicates a significant decline in inflation expectations across various time frames, with one-year expectations dropping from 3.6% to 3.2% [1] - The improvement in inflation expectations is broad-based, affecting different demographics, although food prices are an exception with a projected increase of 5.5% [2] - There is a slight improvement in perceptions regarding employment and personal financial outlooks, with a decrease in the proportion of respondents expecting to lose their jobs [3][6] Inflation Expectations - One-year inflation expectations decreased from 3.6% to 3.2%, three-year expectations fell from 3.2% to 3%, and five-year expectations dropped from 2.7% to 2.6% [1] - The only category with rising inflation expectations is food, which is expected to increase by 5.5%, the highest level since October 2023 [2] - Other major consumer categories, such as gasoline, healthcare, and rent, saw a decline in inflation expectations [2] Employment and Financial Outlook - The percentage of respondents expecting to be unemployed in the next 12 months decreased to 14.8%, down by 0.5% [3] - The average expectation for a higher unemployment rate in the next year also fell by 3.3% to 40.8% [3] - A lower percentage of respondents indicated that their financial situation would worsen in a year, with those unable to meet minimum payments dropping to 13.45% [6] Market Sentiment - Respondents expressed an increased probability of the stock market rising in the next 12 months [8] - The easing of trade tensions has contributed to a more optimistic consumer sentiment, which is seen as a positive signal for the administration [9] - The Fed is closely monitoring consumer inflation expectations to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation trends [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant reduction in inflation concerns among American consumers, attributed to President Trump's retraction of aggressive tariff proposals [1] - The consumer inflation expectations for the next year have dropped to 3.2%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from April, while three-year expectations fell to 3% and five-year expectations slightly decreased to 2.6% [1] - The New York Fed's survey provides a more stable perspective on inflation expectations compared to other surveys, reflecting a positive shift in consumer sentiment [1] Group 2 - The White House's National Economic Council Director stated that inflation has seen its most significant decline in four years, contrary to mainstream beliefs, while tariff revenues are increasing [2] - The preferred core inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, recorded a low of 2.1% in April, with the core PCE at 2.5%, indicating a long-term trend [2] - Consumer expectations for most price categories have decreased, with the anticipated rise in food prices at 5.5%, while gasoline price expectations slowed to 2.7% [2]

Core Insights - The New York Fed's inflation expectations for May unexpectedly decreased, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1] - However, medium-term inflation expectations remain highly uncertain, with a three-year inflation expectation at 3% (down from 3.2%) and a five-year expectation at 2.6% (down from 2.7%) [1]

纽约联储：5月，消费者预计三年后通胀率为3%，低于四月的3.2%； 五年期通胀预期降低至2.6%，前 值2.7%。 ...

金十数据6月9日讯，纽约联储在最新调查中发现，消费者预计对未来一年的通胀预期低于一个月前。 5 月份的消费者预期调查显示1年通胀预期为3.2%，较一个月前下降0.4个百分点。三年通胀预期从4月份 的3.2%降至3%。五年通胀预期从2.7%降至2.6%。此前，特朗普政府取消了4月初实施的部分高额关 税。与此同时，美国截至今年4月的CPI进一步降至2.3%。 纽约联储调查显示通胀预期下降 ...

美国5月纽约联储1年通胀预期 3.2%，前值3.63%。 ...