1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: US consumer sentiment has improved, and the economic fundamentals are showing signs of recovery. However, there are still structural concerns, and inflation expectations are stabilizing. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has increased this week [7]. - Domestic macro: China's manufacturing PMI has risen for two consecutive months, with production and demand both picking up. However, the upward drive still depends on the acceleration of existing policies and the implementation of new policies. The real estate market is in a slow season, and infrastructure construction has seen a seasonal decline in physical work volume [7]. - Asset views: China's economy remains stable, and domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while in the long term, the weak - dollar pattern will continue [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - **Overseas**: The ISM manufacturing PMI in the US in June slightly rebounded to 49.0. In May, job openings rose to 7.769 million, and the job - opening rate was 4.6%. Core durable goods orders surged in May. In June, consumer confidence, current situation, and expectations all declined. This week, long - term inflation expectations were stable, short - term inflation expectations rose, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut increased [7]. - **Domestic**: In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points. The real estate market is in a slow season, and infrastructure physical work volume has decreased seasonally. Local special bond issuance showed a strong performance at the end of the month, and the remaining trade - in funds will be issued in July [7]. 3.2 Viewpoints Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Markets - **Stock Index Futures**: Policy starts to focus on manufacturing profits, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: Adopt a covered - call defense strategy, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment has stabilized, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver continue to adjust, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Shipping**: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation for the European container shipping line, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. 3.2.2 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: Affected by production - limit news, the market is strong, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Iron Ore**: Affected by emission - reduction news in Tangshan, the market declined slightly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Coke**: Rumors have caused the market to oscillate weakly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by supply - demand rumors, the market is weak, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Due to the decline in coal valuation, the futures price is weak, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Silicomanganese**: With the increase in cost valuation, the market rebounds after reaching the bottom, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Glass**: Prices in Shahe and Hubei continue to decline, and the market oscillates weakly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Soda Ash**: Maintenance disruptions still exist, and daily production begins to decline, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. 3.2.3 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: With a weak US dollar index, copper prices remain high, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Alumina**: With a low number of warehouse receipts, the alumina market rises, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Aluminum and Zinc**: Aluminum prices rise due to low inventory and high premiums; zinc has an oversupply situation, with a short - term judgment of oscillation for aluminum and oscillatory decline for zinc [9]. - **Lead**: Cost support has strengthened again, and the downside space for lead prices is limited, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Nickel**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and nickel prices are weak in the short term, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices continue to decline, and the market is weak, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Tin**: Spot trading is dull, and tin prices oscillate, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply continues to increase, and silicon prices are under pressure to oscillate, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Warehouse receipts have significantly decreased, and there is a risk of price fluctuations, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The rebound is limited, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - **LPG**: The fundamentals are loose, but the market is still worried about geopolitical risks, and the PG market may oscillate, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt futures prices oscillate, waiting for negative factors to ferment, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - **High - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Negative factors for high - sulfur fuel oil are yet to ferment, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices decline following crude oil, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - **Methanol**: The port market has weakened significantly, and methanol oscillates, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Urea**: The domestic supply - strong and demand - weak situation is difficult to change, and urea may oscillate weakly in the short term, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Inventory has dropped to the lowest in five years, and the futures price should not be overly shorted, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [11]. - **PX**: Supply is tight, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand has weakened marginally, but the current situation is okay and the cost is strong, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Short - fiber**: It fluctuates with raw materials, and the basis remains stable, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [11]. - **Bottle Chips**: Processing fees fluctuate at a low level, and the absolute value follows raw materials, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, and PP oscillates, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Plastic**: The improvement from maintenance is limited, and plastic oscillates, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Styrene**: Geopolitical risks have cooled down temporarily, and styrene prices decline, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - **PVC**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, PVC oscillates, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Caustic Soda**: Liquid chlorine is under pressure, and caustic soda rebounds weakly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. 3.2.5 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: The US biodiesel policy boosts demand expectations, and oils and fats may continue to oscillate strongly, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [11]. - **Protein Meal**: It oscillates within a range, and long positions should be held, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [11]. - **Corn/Starch**: After the import auction is confirmed, the market has corrected in advance, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Pigs**: Farmers are reluctant to sell, and attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent rainfall, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Rubber**: The strong performance of commodities has driven rubber prices up, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market oscillates within a narrow range, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Pulp**: Driven by the warm trading atmosphere in the financial market, pulp oscillates, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - **Cotton**: The increase in the US cotton planting area has slowed down the rise of Zhengzhou cotton prices, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Sugar**: There is a lack of positive factors, and sugar prices have limited upward momentum, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Timber**: The market is dominated by fundamentals again, and the far - month contracts oscillate weakly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面： "小非农"爆冷，降息预期升温，金价继回升；美国三大股指收盘涨 跌不一，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美元指数涨0.14%报96.78，离岸人民币对美 元几乎收平报7.1617；美债收益率集体上涨，10年期美债收益率涨4.50个基点报 4.279%；COMEX黄金期货涨0.56%报3368.7美元/盎司；中性 贵金属早报—— 2025年7月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 6、预期：今日美国股市提前半天收市，关注美国非农结业报告、中美欧PMI、欧洲 央行公布6月货币政策会议纪要、美联储委员讲话。美越贸易协议达成，"小非农" 爆冷，降息预期升温，金价回升。沪金溢价收 ...

在全球政策制定者聚集的辛特拉会议上，美联储主席鲍威尔罕见地将降息"按下暂停键"的原因指向了白宫。他直言，若非特朗 普政府推行的关税政策，美联储本应已开始宽松进程。这番表态引发市场强烈关注，因为它不仅透露出政策路径被外部因素干 扰的无奈，也暴露出美联储内部对通胀上行风险的持续担忧。 这并不意味着美联储会一直观望到底。鲍威尔在讲话中也留出了灵活性——他没有排除7月降息的可能，只是强调一切取决于 数据表现。这种模糊策略一方面避免在数据出炉前提前定调，另一方面也给市场保留了预期管理的空间。从他提到的大多数利 率制定委员会成员倾向于"今年晚些时候降息"来看，美联储已基本形成内部共识，只是在等待一个合适的时机出手。 过去数月，围绕美联储是否会在7月启动降息的猜测甚嚣尘上。而此次鲍威尔在公开场合明确将"关税"定性为利率按兵不动的 关键变量，无疑为市场理解美联储的犹疑提供了新的视角。正如他所言，在关税导致价格上行压力加剧的背景下，几乎所有的 通胀预测都呈现出上修态势。通胀预期的攀升，使得美联储即使感受到增长放缓、就业略显疲态，也不敢轻举妄动。 尤其是在总统大选临近、政策不确定性上升的阶段，任何一次过早或被市场误解的降息都可能 ...

Core Insights - The latest Tankan survey by the Bank of Japan indicates that despite the impact of U.S. tariffs, Japanese corporate confidence remains resilient, with investment plans aligning with seasonal trends [1] - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, emphasized that corporate capital investment plans will be a focal point, and the timing of the next interest rate hike will depend on the assessment of tariff policies' impact on the real economy [1] - Mizuho believes that while current data may not significantly influence the Bank's stance, it could provide some confidence to Ueda and his team [1] Corporate Confidence - The confidence index for large manufacturing firms improved unexpectedly compared to the March survey, while the confidence indices for large non-manufacturing firms and small enterprises saw a slight decline [1] - Overall, corporate confidence remains relatively stable despite the influence of U.S. tariff policies [1] Investment Plans - Large enterprises have raised their capital expenditure forecast for FY2025 to a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, while small enterprises adjusted their forecast to a decrease of 5.6%, indicating limited impact from tariffs [2] - The adjustments align with historical trends, suggesting that the tariff effects are manageable [2] Sales and Profit Expectations - Sales for all enterprises in FY2025 are expected to grow by 1.4%, slightly above the 0.8% growth forecast from the March survey [2] - However, profit forecasts have worsened from a decline of 1.4% to a decline of 5.7%, still consistent with historical trends [2] Employment Situation - Labor shortages remain severe, with the employment situation index at -35, only a slight improvement of 2 points from March [2] - The tight labor market is likely to continue exerting structural upward pressure on wages [2] Price Expectations - Current corporate expectations indicate a 2.4% increase in overall prices over the next year, three years, and five years, showing little change from the March survey [2] - Specifically, firms expect output prices to rise by 2.9% in the next year, 4.3% in three years, and 5.1% in five years, also reflecting stability compared to previous surveys [2] - This suggests that U.S. tariffs have not led Japanese firms to adopt a more conservative pricing stance, potentially alleviating the Bank of Japan's concerns about downward price risks [2]

Group 1 - The 2025 Conference on FinTech Advances in Emerging Markets successfully concluded at The Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen), focusing on the latest research and discussions in the fintech sector [1] - The conference aimed to create a platform for academia and industry to explore innovative paths and development opportunities for fintech in emerging markets [1] Group 2 - Professor Zhang Bohui welcomed attendees and highlighted the strong development trends in financial innovation in emerging markets like China, India, and Africa over the past decade [5] - Financial technology has become a key engine for local economic development and has the potential to reshape traditional financial landscapes [5] Group 3 - Professor Jerry Parwada emphasized the international attention on fintech research and its potential impact on both emerging and developed markets [8] - He expressed hope for continued collaboration among experts to enhance academic networks in the fintech field [8] Group 4 - Professor Xiong Wei presented research on the role of structured beliefs in fund investment, indicating that fund managers' market expectations significantly predict market returns [11] - The study introduced a "Countercyclical Policy Beliefs" indicator, showing that these beliefs enhance predictive power and improve fund performance [11] Group 5 - Research by Professor Xiang Li revealed differences in how large tech companies and traditional banks respond to monetary policy changes when lending to small businesses [14] - The study found that large tech lenders are more proactive in establishing new lending relationships during monetary easing periods [14] Group 6 - Han Qiu's research indicated that the inclusion of Buy-Now-Pay-Later (BNPL) lenders in credit reporting significantly reduced consumer usage frequency, particularly among borrowers with prior defaults [17] - The findings suggest that information sharing can effectively curb excessive borrowing and spending [17] Group 7 - Dan Su's research demonstrated that personal environmental behaviors can be incentivized through credit mechanisms on platforms like Alipay, generating significant green value [21] - The study estimated that this linkage creates an annual green value of $427.5 million [21] Group 8 - Lei Chen's research showed that the credit business of large tech companies complements their core operations, enhancing consumer behavior and operational stability [25] - The study found no evidence of credit leading to conspicuous consumption, indicating a low default rate compared to traditional credit cards [25] Group 9 - Jiasun Li's research established a significant positive correlation between inflation expectations and individual cryptocurrency purchasing behavior in India [29] - The study provided direct evidence of households using cryptocurrencies as a hedge against inflation [29] Group 10 - Mikael Paaso's research highlighted the spillover effects of introducing new financial products on consumer attitudes towards existing products, indicating a shift in preferences towards mobile money services [34] - This research provides experimental evidence of the unintended cognitive consequences of financial inclusion policies [34] Group 11 - Qi Sun's research indicated that e-commerce platform merchants face advertising and customer capital accumulation challenges due to financing constraints [42] - The study found that alleviating credit constraints significantly boosts advertising spending and sales [42] Group 12 - Chenbin Mao's research on Revenue-Based Financing (RBF) revealed that while RBF expands capital access for small businesses, it also presents significant revenue recovery challenges for investors [46] - The study highlighted the need for optimizing contract design to mitigate moral hazard issues [46] Group 13 - The conference provided valuable networking opportunities for experts in the fintech field and injected new momentum into the innovative development of fintech in emerging markets [48] - The Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen) aims to promote deep collaboration between academia and industry in the fintech sector for sustainable development [48]

Core Viewpoint - The annual central bank meeting in Portugal highlighted the cautious stance of major central bank leaders in response to the economic impact of Trump's policies, with a notable signal from Powell regarding potential interest rate cuts [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Powell indicated that without Trump's tariffs, the Fed might have already lowered interest rates, emphasizing that inflation trends are a key consideration in rate decisions [1]. - The Fed's recent "dot plot" suggested two potential rate cuts by the end of 2025, with Powell previously stating the Fed was in a good position to remain observant [2]. - Powell's recent comments suggest a shift from the previously held view of considering rate cuts only in the fall [1]. Group 2: Global Central Bank Perspectives - ECB President Lagarde noted that while the Eurozone's inflation reached the 2% target in June, challenges remain, and geopolitical risks pose dual threats [4]. - The Bank of England's Bailey stated that monetary policy remains restrictive, with signs of a mild slowdown in the UK economy potentially influencing future decisions [6]. - The Bank of Japan's Ueda maintained a wait-and-see approach, indicating no immediate plans to raise borrowing costs [6][7]. - The Bank of Korea's Lee expressed concerns about the impact of tariffs on economic growth rather than inflation, suggesting a careful approach to rate cuts [8]. Group 3: Dollar and Trade Policy - Central bank leaders agreed that the dollar's status as the preferred global reserve currency is unlikely to change in the short term, amidst ongoing trade negotiations by the Trump administration [9]. - Trump announced intentions to implement new tariffs by July 9, emphasizing a strict stance on trade relations with various countries [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that Russia's GDP growth rate is projected to be 1.5% by 2025, with inflation expectations remaining stable at a median of 7.0% by the end of 2025 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: US consumer sentiment has improved, and the economic fundamentals are showing signs of recovery. However, due to tariff policies, consumers remain cautious about the future, and structural concerns still exist. Inflation expectations are stabilizing, and market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates have increased this week [8]. - Domestic macro: The domestic economic fundamentals have not changed significantly this week. Both domestic and external demand have some resilience, but the upward drive depends on the acceleration of existing policies and the implementation of incremental policies. The real estate market is in a slow season, and infrastructure construction's physical workload is seasonally decreasing. Local special bond issuance has increased at the end of the month, and the remaining trade - in funds will be allocated in July to support consumption [8]. - Asset views: The domestic economy remains stable, with mainly structural opportunities for domestic assets. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while the long - term weak - dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Movements - **Domestic financial markets**: The CSI 300 futures rose 0.24% daily, 0.24% weekly, 3.57% monthly, 1.09% quarterly, and - 0.90% year - to - date. Treasury bond futures generally declined, with the 30 - year Treasury bond futures down 0.39% daily. The dollar index was flat, and the dollar - yuan central parity rate decreased by 41 pips daily. Interest rates such as the 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate increased [3][5]. - **Domestic commodities**: The shipping sector's container shipping to Europe route decreased by 2.42% daily. Among non - ferrous metals, copper decreased by 0.06% daily, while zinc increased by 0.38% daily. In the energy and chemical sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil decreased by 0.23% daily, and ICE UK natural gas decreased by 2.90% daily. Agricultural products showed mixed trends, with CBOT soybeans rising 0.89% daily and CBOT corn rising 1.79% daily [3][4][5]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas macro**: The US consumer sentiment is improving, but tariff policies make consumers cautious. The inflation expectation structure is stabilizing, and market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates have increased [8]. - **Domestic macro**: The domestic economic fundamentals are stable, but the real estate market is in a slow season, and infrastructure construction's physical workload is decreasing seasonally. Local special bond issuance is increasing, and consumption - supporting funds will be allocated in July [8]. 3.3 Viewpoints on Various Sectors - **Macro**: Overseas stagflation trading is cooling down, and the long - and short - term allocation strategies are diverging. Domestically, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal side will implement established policies in the short term. Overseas, the inflation expectation structure is flattening, and economic growth expectations are improving [10]. - **Financial**: The bullish sentiment in both the stock and bond markets has declined. Stock index futures are in a state of releasing capital congestion, and stock index options require waiting for a decline in volatility. The bullish sentiment in the bond market has weakened [10]. - **Precious metals**: Risk appetite has recovered, and precious metals are undergoing short - term adjustments. The short - term trend will continue to adjust due to the progress of Sino - US negotiations [10]. - **Shipping**: Market sentiment has declined. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase in the loading rate in June, and the game between peak - season expectations and price increases needs to be monitored [10]. - **Black building materials**: The sector remains in a volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the recovery of coal supply in July. Coke has completed four rounds of price cuts, and the sentiment of stabilizing prices is increasing. Coking coal supply is continuously disrupted, and the market sentiment is high [10]. - **Non - ferrous metals and new materials**: The coexistence of low inventory and weak demand expectations leads to continued volatility in non - ferrous metals. Copper prices are high due to a weak dollar index, while zinc is expected to decline due to an oversupply situation [10]. - **Energy and chemicals**: Crude oil prices are stable, and the positive basis of chemicals provides some support. Most products are in a volatile state, with some expected to decline and a few expected to rise [12]. - **Agriculture**: Sino - US negotiations have made substantial progress, which is beneficial for the cotton price to rebound. Most agricultural products are in a volatile state, with some expected to decline, such as pulp [12].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年7月1日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：特朗普称不需延长最后期限，降息预期继续升温，美元走弱，金价继回 升；美国三大股指全线收涨，欧洲三大股指小幅收跌；美元指数跌0.50%报96.77， 离岸人民币对美元升值报7.1575；美债收益率全线走低，10年期美债收益率跌4.89 个基点报4.222%；COMEX黄金期货涨0.83%报3315.00美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货767.58，现货762.56，基差-2.6，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单18237千克，不变；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线下方； ...

美联储博斯蒂克：关税相关的通胀风险是否会影响预期，这是一个悬而未决的问题。 ...