文/康路 发自格林威治 尽管对政策方向颇有批评，鲁宾仍坚信美国的根基牢固。他强调，美国拥有灵活的劳动力市场、无与伦 比的资本市场、顶尖大学与强大的创新文化。然而，他同时警告，美国正在"自我削弱"——攻击大学、 削减科研预算、收紧移民政策等行为都在损害长期竞争力。 对于近期黄金价格的上涨，鲁宾态度平静。他认为，黄金只是一种心理避险工具，没有使用价值，也无 法作为判断宏观趋势的依据。"几千年来，人们在不确定中寻求安全感，"但他表示，不会把金价当作经 济方向的信号。 鲁宾被认为是克林顿时代经济繁荣的重要推手，主导推动了1993年赤字削减法案和1997年平衡预算法案 的通过。 责任编辑：郝欣煜 问及对关税的看法，鲁宾坦言，开放贸易在过去曾极大地造福美国经济，而新一轮关税政策方向错误。 他解释说，关税并非持续性的通胀，而是一种"一次性的成本上升"，会提高生产者成本，削弱企业竞争 力，并最终通过价格传导给消费者。他引用已故美联储前主席保罗·沃尔克的话强调，一旦通胀预期被 点燃，就很难遏制。市场上有人将关税视为财政增收手段，但鲁宾认为这是严重的误判。他认为，关税 收入在整体赤字中只是杯水车薪，最终伤害的将是普通消费者和经济 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant rise in consumer inflation expectations in the U.S., particularly among low-income and less-educated groups, with the one-year inflation expectation increasing from 3.2% in August to 3.4% in September, marking a recent high [1] - The five-year inflation expectation slightly increased from 2.9% to 3%, while the three-year expectation remained stable at 3% [1] - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring changes in consumer inflation expectations to assess whether recent tariff policies will lead to temporary price increases or more persistent inflationary pressures [1] Group 2 - Consumer confidence continues to weaken, reflecting the dual pressures of high inflation and a slowing job market, with expectations of rising unemployment over the next 12 months [1] - There is a slight recovery in consumer confidence regarding job availability in the next three months, following a record decline in August [1] - In terms of personal financial situations, there is a divergence in consumer sentiment, with an increase in respondents believing their current financial situation has improved compared to last year, while those expecting their financial situation to worsen in the next year also increased, indicating fragile confidence in the economic outlook [2]

Group 1 - Oracle's cloud profit margins were reported to be disappointing, leading to a sell-off in large tech and consumer stocks, which dragged down the overall US stock market [1][6] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices both ended the day lower after reaching historical highs earlier, with the S&P 500 ending a seven-day winning streak [1][3] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell over 2%, while the Russell 2000 small-cap index dropped more than 1.1% [3][10] Group 2 - The semiconductor ETF declined by 2.24%, and the consumer discretionary sector fell by 1.72%, while essential consumer goods rose by 0.92% [5] - Oracle's stock dropped approximately 2.5%, with an intraday decline exceeding 7% due to concerns over its cloud profit margins [10] - Tesla's stock fell by 4% despite the launch of a new Model Y priced below $40,000, indicating a lack of market enthusiasm [6][7] Group 3 - The Nasdaq 100 index decreased by 0.55%, with major tech stocks like Tesla and Google experiencing declines [9] - The VIX, a measure of market volatility, rose by 5.38%, indicating increased investor anxiety [7] - The cryptocurrency market saw significant declines, with Bitcoin dropping over $5,000 from its recent high [6][22]

Core Insights - Inflation expectations are rising, with one-year expectations increasing by 0.2% to 3.4%, the highest since April 2025 [2] - Concerns about unemployment are also increasing, with expectations for higher unemployment rising by two percentage points to 41.1%, the highest since April 2025 [3] Inflation Expectations - One-year inflation expectations rose to 3.4%, while three-year expectations remained unchanged at 3% [2] - Five-year inflation expectations increased by 0.1% to 3%, the highest since May 2024 [2] - Expectations for food prices have reached their highest level since March 2023 [2] Labor Market Insights - Earnings growth expectations have declined by 0.1% to 2.4%, marking the third consecutive decline and the lowest since May 2021 [3] - Job loss expectations increased by 0.4% to 14.9%, the highest since April 2025 [4] - Despite rising job loss expectations, the outlook for finding a job improved by 2.5 points, although it remains near pandemic lows [4] Spending and Economic Outlook - Spending growth expectations have decreased by 0.3% to 4.7% [5] - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges regarding its inflation target, as the five-year inflation outlook has remained at 3% for an extended period [7] - There are discussions about the impact of supply-side policies and immigration changes on inflation expectations [8]

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 美联储：美国9月一年期通胀预期3.4%，前值3.2%。 三年期通胀预期持稳于3%。 五年期通胀预期3%， 前值2.9%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has slightly lowered the policy interest rate by 25 basis points, signaling a shift in focus from inflation to employment risks amid high inflation rates, raising questions about the motivations and implications of potential further rate cuts [1][2][3]. Group 1: Rate Cut Motivation and Policy Logic - The change in risk assessment indicates that the Fed prioritizes employment concerns over inflation, with a consensus that moderate rate cuts can mitigate employment deterioration without significantly impacting inflation expectations [2][3]. - The reassessment of inflation structure shows that while supply chain issues and tariffs affect prices, the overall impact on consumer prices remains moderate, allowing for limited rate cuts to buffer demand-side pressures [4][5]. - The operational principles emphasize gradual rate cuts, data dependency, and reversibility to balance restrictive financial conditions with avoiding an economic downturn [5][6]. Group 2: Impact on U.S. Employment and Inflation - Rate cuts are expected to first benefit interest-sensitive sectors, easing corporate cash flow pressures and potentially stabilizing hiring and working hours over 1-2 quarters [6][7]. - The inflation trajectory is anticipated to stabilize rather than escalate, with limited demand-side stimulus from the rate cuts, allowing for a controlled approach to managing inflation expectations [7][8]. Group 3: Effects on Developing Countries' Macroeconomic Fundamentals - The Fed's shift to a rate-cutting cycle is likely to influence global financial conditions, leading to capital flows towards emerging markets and a weaker dollar, which can alleviate debt burdens for developing countries [8][9]. - For China, the Fed's rate cut provides external support for monetary policy, suggesting a cautious approach to avoid exacerbating asset volatility while leveraging external conditions for internal economic stability [9][10].

Core Insights - International gold prices have reached new highs, with jewelry gold prices also rising significantly during the recent holidays [1][2] - The market anticipates further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, coupled with a weakening dollar, which supports gold prices [1][4] Price Trends - Jewelry gold prices have generally surpassed 1100 RMB per gram, with major brands quoting around 1130 RMB per gram during the National Day holiday [2] - Specific quotes include Chow Tai Fook at 1129 RMB per gram and Lao Feng Xiang at 1131 RMB per gram, with investment gold priced at 999 RMB per gram [2] Promotional Activities - During the holiday period, various brands offered discounts, with some promotions reducing the price of gold by 160 RMB per gram [2][3] - Discounts included 8% off on certain gold items and buy-one-get-one-free offers on diamond products [3] Market Analysis - Analysts from Galaxy Securities suggest that the trend of monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve is established, which may lead to increased global ETF holdings in gold, further driving up prices [4] - The World Gold Council reported a significant increase in global gold ETF holdings, with a notable rise of nearly 27 tons in a single day [4] Future Outlook - UBS forecasts a bullish trend in the gold market, predicting prices could reach 4200 USD per ounce by mid-2026 due to factors like a weakening dollar and increased central bank purchases [5] - Tianfeng Securities identifies three key factors supporting precious metals: safe-haven demand, ongoing central bank purchases, and inflation expectations [5] Short-term Risks - Some experts caution about potential short-term risks, noting that gold prices are currently high and may experience corrections [5]

Group 1 - International gold prices have recently reached new highs, with jewelry gold prices also rising significantly, surpassing 1100 yuan per gram during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [1][2] - As of October 3, COMEX gold closed at 3912.1 USD per ounce, marking a weekly increase of 2.71% [1] - Market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, combined with a weakening dollar, are providing additional support for gold prices [1][4] Group 2 - Major jewelry brands have set gold prices around 1130 yuan per gram during the holiday period, with promotional activities in place despite high prices [2][3] - Discounts offered during the holiday include significant reductions on gold jewelry, with some brands providing up to 160 yuan off per gram [2][3] - The global gold ETF holdings have seen the fastest growth in three years, with a notable increase of nearly 27 tons in a single day, driven by inflows from North America and Europe [4] Group 3 - UBS forecasts a bullish trend in the gold market, predicting prices could reach 4200 USD per ounce by mid-2026, supported by a weaker dollar and increased central bank purchases [5] - Factors supporting precious metals include heightened demand for safe-haven assets due to economic uncertainties and ongoing central bank purchases [5] - Inflation expectations, while not the primary driver currently, could enhance gold's value as an inflation hedge if persistent high inflation occurs in the U.S. [5]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 reaching all-time highs. The Dow rose by 1.1%, the Nasdaq by 1.32%, and the S&P 500 by 1.09% during the week [1] - On Friday, the Dow closed up 238.56 points, or 0.51%, at 46,758.28 points, while the Nasdaq fell by 63.54 points, or 0.28%, to 22,780.51 points. The S&P 500 rose slightly by 0.44 points, or 0.01%, to 6,715.79 points [1] Individual Stock Movements - USA Rare Earth saw a significant increase of 14.3%, while Nano Nuclear Energy rose by 6.7%. In contrast, Tesla fell by 1.4%, Ford gained 3.6%, AMD dropped approximately 3%, and Intel decreased by 1.26% [1] - Walmart's fintech subsidiary OnePay plans to launch cryptocurrency services, allowing users to trade Bitcoin and Ethereum, enhancing its "super app" strategy [9] European Market Performance - The DAX30 index in Germany fell by 50.90 points, or 0.21%, while the FTSE 100 in the UK rose by 59.32 points, or 0.63%. The CAC40 in France increased by 24.91 points, or 0.31% [2] Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil futures rose by 0.7% to nearly $61 per barrel, but fell by 7.4% over the week. Brent crude oil also saw a slight increase of 0.7%, closing at $64.53 per barrel [2] - Spot gold increased by 0.81% to $3,886.71 per ounce, with HSBC predicting a potential rise above $4,000 per ounce due to geopolitical risks and fiscal uncertainties [3] Economic Indicators - Goldman Sachs reported a slight increase in initial jobless claims to 224,000, indicating a rise from the previous week's 218,000 [4] - Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns about inflation and employment, with discussions on adjusting monetary policy based on housing costs and economic uncertainties [5][6] Corporate Tax Proposals - Senator Bernie Moreno indicated that President Trump is considering significant tariff reductions for U.S. auto production, which could alleviate costs for major manufacturers like Ford and Tesla [7] Major Bank Ratings - Wells Fargo raised the target price for Ford from $8 to $10, while Deutsche Bank lowered Procter & Gamble's target price from $177 to $175 [10]

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Miran, a Federal Reserve governor, indicated that he may adjust his inflation outlook if housing costs unexpectedly rise, acknowledging that his stance differs from mainstream views and is not fixed [1] Group 1: Inflation and Housing Costs - Miran downplayed the risk of tariffs driving inflation, suggesting that stricter immigration policies and average rent trends could suppress housing inflation [1] - He stated that if certain events indicate that the expected channels are ineffective and rent surges significantly, he would need to revise his mild inflation forecast [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Decisions - Miran voted against the recent Federal Reserve decision to lower interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, advocating for a more substantial cut of 0.5 percentage points [1] - He called for a series of aggressive rate cuts to bring the benchmark policy rate to what he considers a neutral level, which neither stimulates nor suppresses economic activity [1] Group 3: Employment Market and Future Predictions - Amid signs of weakness in the job market, policymakers are increasingly acknowledging the need for further rate cuts, although some remain cautious due to ongoing uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policies and inflation still exceeding the Fed's 2% target [1] - According to the median forecast from last month's meeting, Federal Reserve officials expect two additional rate cuts of 0.25 percentage points each by the end of 2025 [1] Group 4: Federal Reserve Independence - Miran, who joined the Federal Reserve Board in September, faced scrutiny regarding his previous role in the White House and the potential political influence on Fed decisions [2] - He emphasized that since his confirmation, he has not communicated with Trump and has not been directed to take specific policy actions, asserting his role is to bring fresh, non-mainstream perspectives to the Fed [2] - When asked about broader reforms at the Fed, Miran stated that such matters should ultimately be addressed by Congress rather than himself [2]