Group 1: China Macroeconomic Indicators - The ICHI Composite Economic Index indicates a slight slowdown in China's economic recovery, but overall remains stable[1] - The Consumer Sentiment Index has dipped into contraction territory, reflecting limited declines in consumer confidence and market vitality[1] - The Investment Sentiment Index remains close to expansion territory, supported by infrastructure and manufacturing investments driven by policy[1] Group 2: Trade Performance - In the first seven months of 2025, China's total import and export value increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with a growth acceleration of 0.6 percentage points compared to the first half[2] - High-tech product imports and exports grew by 8.4%, contributing 45.4% to the total trade growth[2] - Exports of "new three types" products rose by 14.9%, indicating a shift towards high-end and green products[2] Group 3: Global Economic Context - In July, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, the lowest in nine months, significantly below the expected 104,000[6] - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, matching expectations but higher than the previous 4.1%[6] - The EU announced a six-month suspension of tariffs on U.S. goods to maintain transatlantic relations, following an agreement with the U.S.[6]

根据美国银行最新发布的月度基金经理调查，随着美股自4月低点大幅反弹，认为美股估值过高的投资 者比例创下历史记录。 数据显示，约91%的受访者认为当前美股估值偏高，这一比例刷新了自2001年以来的最高纪录。尽管投 资者对全球股市的配置比例已升至2月以来最高水平，但调查显示仍有16%的投资者低配美股。 目前，市场整体情绪已改善至六个月来最乐观水平，甚至超过美国总统特朗普加征关税引发市场动荡并 加剧衰退担忧前的水平。美银策略师Michael Hartnett指出，投资者对经济硬着陆的预期已降至今年1月 以来最低水平。 通胀预期升至三个月高点，净18%的受访者预计全球CPI将走高; 主要尾部风险：贸易战引发全球衰退(29%)、通胀阻碍美联储降息(27%)、债券收益率无序上涨(20%)、 人工智能(AI)股票泡沫(14%)、美元贬值(6%); 最拥挤交易：做多"美股七巨头"(45%)、做空美元(23%)、做多黄金(12%)。 在企业财报季表现超预期，以及市场对美联储将在经济放缓时降息的乐观预期推动下，美股近期屡创新 高。花旗等机构分析师已相应上调对标普500指数下半年走势的预期。 尽管如此，包括Hartnett在内的策 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent dovish stance has created an environment where gold prices are likely to rise and are difficult to decline [1] - The potential imposition of tariffs on gold bars led to a significant increase in COMEX gold prices, although subsequent clarification from the White House negated this impact [2] - The combination of weakening employment data, dovish Fed policies, and anticipated inflation is expected to support an upward trend in gold prices [2] Group 2: Copper Market Analysis - Previous market concerns regarding copper included the reversal of logistics post-tariff, weakening demand due to the end of solar panel installations, and strong economic data suppressing rate cut expectations [3] - These concerns are gradually being disproven, as U.S. copper prices remain stable and inventory levels have not significantly increased [3] - The upcoming September is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics, with potential downward pressure on copper production due to maintenance and a return to peak demand [3]

花旗集团经济学家Faraz Syed分析指出，此次政策声明的整体基调可能呈现中性偏宽松的倾向。若与先 前声明相比，该行对经济预测的调整显示2026年失业率可能小幅攀升且通胀水平有所回落，则政策立场 或将更趋宽松。市场普遍关注此次利率决议的措辞变化，特别是对通胀预期和就业市场前景的评估。分 析人士认为，若联储下调通胀预期并上调失业率预测，可能暗示未来存在进一步放宽政策的可能性。当 前市场定价已基本消化本次降息预期，投资者更关注的是联储对后续政策路径的前瞻指引。 周一（8月11日）亚市早盘，澳元兑美元下跌，目前交投于0.65附近，截止北京时间11:42分，澳元/美元 报价0.6526，上涨0.02%，上一交易日澳元/美元收盘报0.6524。澳洲联储预计将于周二宣布降息25个基 点，将官方隔夜拆款利率从3.85%下调至3.6%。 澳元兑美元0.6465附近可能为澳元兑美元提供支撑，其下方是100日简单移动平均线（SMA）。若跌破 0.6420-0.6415区域（即上周五触及的一个多月低点），将为空头提供新的触发信号。随之而来的下跌可 能拖累现货价格跌破0.6400整数关口，向6月月度震荡低点0.6375-0.637 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, precious metal prices showed a continuous rebound. Weak US employment and services PMI data supported Fed rate cuts, increasing market expectations for a September rate cut. Trump's unexpected tariff increase and potential Fed chair change added to market uncertainty, boosting investor risk aversion and driving up precious metal prices [4][7]. - On Friday, the COMEX December gold futures contract briefly hit a record high of $3534 before falling back, influenced by news of possible US tariffs on imported gold. The market is focused on the White House's upcoming executive order regarding gold bar import tariffs [4][7]. - The US may impose country - specific import tariffs on widely - traded gold bars, which could severely impact the global gold supply chain. Switzerland, as the world's largest gold refining and transit center, would be significantly affected if the tariff policy is implemented [4]. - The market is currently focused on the Trump administration's stance on gold bar import tariffs in the executive order. Gold price volatility is expected to intensify in the near term, and technically, international gold prices are more likely to face short - term pressure after Friday's pull - back [4][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 787.80 | 17.08 | 2.22 | 220321 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 783.27 | 7.72 | 1.00 | 33164 | 207932 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 3458.20 | 42.20 | 1.24 | | | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 9278 | 360 | 4.04 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 9249 | 250 | 2.78 | 347688 | 3526850 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 38.51 | 1.41 | 3.79 | | | US dollars/ounce | [5] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Market uncertainty increased due to potential Fed rate cuts, tariff hikes, and possible Fed chair change, leading to a rise in precious metal prices last week [4][7]. - The possible US gold import tariffs could disrupt the global gold supply chain, especially affecting Switzerland [4]. - Gold price volatility is expected to intensify, and short - term pressure on international gold prices is more likely [4][11]. - This week, key data to watch include US July CPI, PPI, and retail data, as well as the euro - zone's Q2 GDP quarter - on - quarter revised value. Events to monitor are US tariff policy changes, Fed officials' speeches, and the Russia - US summit [11]. 3. Important Data Information - US service sector expansion slowed in July, with the ISM services PMI at 50.1, lower than the previous month and expectations. The employment index shrank, and the price index reached a new high since October 2022 [12]. - US initial jobless claims increased by 7000 to 226,000 last week, and continued claims rose by 38,000 to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021, suggesting a cooling labor market and strengthening rate - cut expectations [12]. - New York Fed's July survey showed that one - year inflation expectations rose from 3% to 3.1%, three - year inflation expectations remained at 3%, and five - year inflation expectations increased from 2.6% to 2.9%, the highest since February [12]. - The Bank of England cut rates by 25 basis points, but internal differences over inflation risks may signal an approaching end to consecutive rate cuts [12]. - As of the end of July 2025, China's official gold reserves increased by 600,000 ounces to 73.96 million ounces, with continuous increases for nine months [13]. - A US Customs and Border Protection document indicated that 1 - kilogram and 100 - ounce gold bars may be subject to tariffs [13]. 4. Relevant Data Charts - ETF gold total holdings were 959.64 tons on August 8, 2025, up 6.56 tons from the previous week. iShare silver holdings were 14990.80 tons, down 65.87 tons from the previous week [14]. - For gold futures on August 5, 2025, non - commercial long positions were 292194, short positions were 55144, and net long positions were 237050, an increase of 13454 from the previous week. For silver futures, non - commercial long positions were 71234, short positions were 20576, and net long positions were 50658, a decrease of 8749 from the previous week [16].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term gold and silver markets may experience strong oscillations. It's not advisable to chase short - term long positions in gold currently. Long - term strategic allocation of gold is recommended in the range of [770 - 796]. Silver has a positive long - term upward trend with a recommended range of [9100 - 9360] [2][97][99] - Multiple factors such as weak US data, high interest - rate cut expectations, geopolitical and trade frictions, and industrial demand structure support the rise of gold and silver prices [97] - In the long - term, central bank gold purchases, weakening US dollar credit, and inflation risks support the gold market [98] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Domestic industrial products follow the "governance of low prices" logic - Domestic industrial products were active this week. The black variety sector rose significantly with the Wenhua Black Chain Commodity Index up over 4%. The new energy index rose 4.29%, and the precious metal index rose 2.91% [12][15] 2. US data dropped significantly, and interest - rate cut expectations are strong - US economic data showed weakness. Unemployment data worsened, and inflation expectations were affected by tariffs. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September reached 100% probability, with an expected 2 - 3 rate cuts throughout the year [11][27][28] 3. China's import and export data are resilient, and attention is paid to the stabilization of the real estate market - From January to July, China's exports and imports showed positive trends. The export growth rate to non - US countries was strong, offsetting the decline in exports to the US. The real estate market in 30 large - and medium - sized cities had a significant decline in transactions, while the land transactions in 100 large - scale cities increased month - on - month [61][63][67] 4. Supported by multiple factors, gold and silver rose significantly this week - Affected by factors such as interest - rate cut expectations, tariff changes, and central bank gold purchases, gold and silver prices rose. The net gold purchase volume of global central banks decreased in the second quarter of 2025, but 95% of central banks are expected to continue to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months. China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for 9 consecutive months. The supply - demand gap of silver in 2025 is expected to narrow [81][92][93]

Macro Overview - The article highlights a rebound in inflation expectations in the US, with both 5-year and 10-year inflation expectations rising in August, indicating a marginal improvement in investor confidence [2][3] - Major economic indicators show mixed results: initial jobless claims increased, ISM non-manufacturing PMI declined, and durable goods orders fell month-on-month in June [2] - In Europe, the Eurozone investment confidence index turned negative again, while retail sales showed a year-on-year increase in June, and PPI saw a slight rebound [2] Policy Insights - The US labor market is showing signs of slowing down, creating a dilemma for the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy; the European Central Bank is not expected to cut interest rates in the short term; the Bank of Japan is maintaining its current interest rates but may exit its wait-and-see mode by the end of the year [3] Hong Kong Market Liquidity - The article estimates that the total financing scale for IPOs and refinancing in Hong Kong could reach nearly HKD 300 billion this year, with IPO financing expected to be around HKD 1,500 billion [6] - The peak of stock unlocks in Hong Kong occurred in Q2 2025, with a total unlock amount of HKD 444.8 billion, accounting for 50% of the annual total; the pressure for significant reductions in holdings is limited moving forward [7][8] - The article anticipates that net inflows from southbound trading could exceed HKD 1.2 trillion this year, providing a substantial liquidity source for the Hong Kong market [9]

在美联储理事库格勒意外提前辞职后不到一周，新任理事人选火速出炉。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间8月7日，美国总统特朗普表示，已选定现任白宫经济顾问委员会主 席斯蒂芬·米兰接替刚刚空出的美联储理事席位，任期至2026年1月31日。特朗普还称，将继续 寻找长期的美联储职位替代者。 米兰曾在特朗普第一任总统任期内担任美国财政部经济政策高级顾问，拥有哈佛大学经济学专 业的博士学位，是"海湖庄园协议"总设计师。 权宜之计 记者丨 吴斌 编辑丨和佳 设定的2%目标。去年9月美联储将利率从5.3%的20年高位下调，米兰认为这提高了高通胀率根 深蒂固的风险。 8月1日，美联储发表声明称，美联储理事库格勒辞去美联储理事的职位，于本月8日正式卸 任。库格勒的理事任期原定于明年1月结束，其提前离职使得特朗普可提前进行新一轮人事任 命。 米兰在美联储理事会的任期只有几个月，特朗普任命米兰为临时理事无疑是"权宜之计"，为后 续提名14年任期的理事甚至下一任美联储主席铺路。 Evercore ISI高级经济学家兼策略师Marco Casiraghi表示， 特朗普选择米兰是权宜之计，给自 己留出了在明年1月之前做出最终决定的时间。这样一来，特 ...

五年期预期创三月来新高，关税阴影成关键变量 短期冲击与长期结构性风险的博弈 通胀预期的升温，恰好撞上美联储货币政策决策的敏感窗口期。尽管上周美联储会议以多数票决定维持 利率不变，延续 "观望" 姿态，但内部对如何应对当前局势的分歧正日益凸显，而关税引发的通胀争议 成为分歧的核心焦点。 美联储理事沃勒的立场相对宽松，他明确表示，可以 "忽视" 关税带来的通胀冲击，因为这类影响本质 上是 "暂时性的"。沃勒在上周会议中曾支持小幅降息 25 个基点，即便最终决议是维持利率不变，他的 态度也反映出部分官员对经济增速放缓的担忧 —— 在他看来，关税推高的物价只是短期扰动，不会改 变通胀长期向目标收敛的趋势，因此无需为这种 "暂时现象" 调整长期利率路径。 与沃勒形成对比的是博斯蒂克的谨慎态度。博斯蒂克虽表示 "仍预计今年会有一次降息"，但同时强 调，关税对供应链的重塑可能带来 "更持久的成本压力"，如果这种压力转化为工资 - 物价螺旋上升，美 联储可能需要重新评估政策立场。这种分歧背后，是对经济基本面判断的差异：沃勒更关注近期就业增 长放缓、消费支出疲态等 "软数据"，认为需要通过降息提振需求；博斯蒂克则更警惕通胀预期 ...

Group 1: UK Monetary Policy and Inflation - The Bank of England (BoE) faced challenges in lowering interest rates due to rising inflation expectations, ultimately deciding to cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.0% on August 7, 2025[3] - The BoE raised its food inflation forecast for Q3 2025 by 1.5 percentage points to 5.0%, expecting it to rise further to 5.5% by the end of 2025[3] - The nominal yield on 10-year UK government bonds increased by 323 basis points from February 1, 2022, to August 6, 2025, indicating a steepening yield curve[4] Group 2: US Tariff Impact and Economic Outlook - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the US is expected to impact global economies, with significant implications for non-US developed economies[5] - Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 0.7 thousand to 226 thousand, suggesting potential upward revisions in future employment data[5] - The US labor market shows signs of cooling, but strong consumer spending and non-residential investment contrast with the weak demand seen in the UK and other non-US developed economies[5] Group 3: Global Economic Trends - The recent tariffs imposed by the US range from 10% to 41%, affecting various trade partners, including China, and potentially leading to a restructuring of global supply chains[6] - The dollar index is expected to rebound after a temporary decline, which may put pressure on the Chinese yuan[6] - The report suggests that the People's Bank of China may consider a small rate cut of 10 basis points to stimulate demand in the real estate market[6]