Core Viewpoint - The recent strong U.S. economic data has put short-term pressure on gold prices, while geopolitical tensions and tariff risks continue to provide support for the gold market [1][2][4]. Economic Data Impact - U.S. retail sales in June increased by 0.6%, with core retail sales rising by 0.5%, indicating a moderate recovery in consumer spending [2]. - Initial jobless claims fell by 7,000 to 221,000, the lowest level in three months, suggesting a stable labor market that supports consumer spending [2]. Federal Reserve Policy Divergence - There is a notable split within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policy, with some members advocating for maintaining restrictive policies to curb inflation, while others support rate cuts [3]. - The probability of a rate cut in September is currently at 54%, with a 30% chance for action in July [3]. Trade Risks and Market Reactions - The Trump administration is in urgent negotiations with Japan regarding a 25% tariff, with a deadline of August 1 for an agreement [4]. - A significant increase of 44% in Swiss gold exports in June indicates that some institutions are still accumulating physical gold as a hedge against potential policy and market risks [4]. Future Outlook for Gold Prices - Gold prices are currently under pressure from macroeconomic factors, but the outlook for the second half of the year will depend on the Federal Reserve's policy direction and the actual implementation of Trump's trade policies [4][5]. - Technically, gold prices remain in a long-term uptrend, with a critical support level at $3,300 per ounce, and potential resistance levels at $3,350 and $3,380 per ounce [5].

Group 1: Market Overview - The global financial market is influenced by multiple core variables including Federal Reserve policy expectations, Trump's trade policies, and geopolitical dynamics [2] - The US dollar index experienced a rebound, closing at 97.83, marking a 0.9% increase, the first weekly gain in three weeks [3] - Gold and silver prices continued to rise, with gold closing at $3,355.12 per ounce, supported by central bank purchases and heightened risk aversion [4] Group 2: Currency Movements - The Australian dollar strengthened due to the Reserve Bank of Australia's unexpected decision to maintain interest rates, while the British pound faced pressure, recording six consecutive declines [5] - The euro was under pressure following dovish comments from European Central Bank officials, while the US dollar against the Japanese yen saw fluctuations, ultimately rising nearly 2% for the week [5] Group 3: Commodity Prices - International oil prices rose over 2% for the week, supported by geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and expectations that OPEC+ may pause production increases in October [6] - Despite an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, the overall market sentiment remained bullish due to external factors [6] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - The stock market experienced high volatility, with technology stocks, particularly Nvidia, leading the gains, pushing the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to new highs [7] - However, all three major indices closed lower for the week, reflecting a rebalancing pressure due to high valuations [7] Group 5: Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw significant activity, with Bitcoin reaching $117,789 per coin, driven by institutional interest [8] - However, the influx of leveraged funds raised concerns about market volatility, with $541 million in liquidations reported in the past 24 hours [8] Group 6: Future Outlook - The market is expected to focus on Federal Reserve officials' speeches, key economic data releases, and potential adjustments in Trump's policies in the coming week [9] - The US dollar's performance is likely to continue influencing non-US asset prices, with gold and silver expected to maintain strength, while oil price volatility may increase [9]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is showing a strong upward trend against major currencies, supported by robust US economic data and increasing uncertainty in other major economies, which enhances the dollar's relative attractiveness [1][3]. Economic Data Impact - The US dollar index is currently stable at 98.456, having risen 0.91% last week and an additional 0.64% this week, reaching a high of 98.951, the highest level since June 23 [3]. - Recent US economic data, including a rebound in June retail sales exceeding market expectations and a drop in initial jobless claims to a three-month low, indicates a resilient consumer spending and a tight labor market, providing the Federal Reserve with more room to observe before making rate cuts [3]. - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have adjusted, with traders now anticipating a reduction of about 45 basis points for the remainder of the year, down from nearly 50 basis points earlier in the week [3]. Global Economic Uncertainty - Uncertainty in other major economies, particularly Japan, is contributing to the strength of the dollar. Upcoming elections in Japan pose risks to the ruling coalition, potentially complicating economic stimulus plans and trade negotiations with the US [4]. - The Japanese yen has depreciated by 0.8% against the dollar this week, reflecting market concerns over Japan's policy continuity [4]. Political Influences - Political developments in the US, including President Trump's proposed spending and tax cuts, have raised concerns about the US fiscal situation, which could negatively impact the dollar's credit foundation in the long term [4]. - Trump's criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for not cutting rates immediately has increased volatility in the dollar's performance, highlighting the influence of political factors on monetary policy and investor confidence [4]. Market Reactions - The attractiveness of US dollar assets is showing signs of divergence. Despite a slight increase in US Treasury yields, foreign investors have continued to buy US debt, with net purchases reaching $32 billion this week, indicating recognition of the dollar as a safe asset [6]. - Conversely, the US stock market has seen some profit-taking, with a net outflow of $12 billion from the S&P 500 this week, reflecting a reassessment of the balance between stock valuations and the strength of the dollar [6].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Precious Metals Data Daily [4] - Date: July 18, 2025 [5] - Research Institution: ITC Guomao Futures [3] - Analyst: Baishuna from the Macroeconomic and Financial Research Center [5] Group 2: Market Data Price and Price Changes - On July 17, 2025, London Gold Spot was at $3334.99/ounce (-0.1% from the previous day), London Silver Spot at $37.88/ounce (0.0% change), COMEX Gold at $3340.80/ounce (-0.2% change), and COMEX Silver at $38.11/ounce (-0.2% change). Shanghai gold and silver futures and spot also had corresponding price changes [5]. - The price differences and ratios between different gold and silver varieties also changed. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was -2.24 yuan/gram on July 17, with a 14.3% change from the previous day [5]. Positions and Inventories - As of July 16, 2025, the non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver had different degrees of change compared to the previous day. Gold ETF - SPDR was at 950.79 tons (0.33% change), and Silver ETF - SLV was at 14819.28626 tons (-0.25% change) [5]. - On July 17, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 28872.00 kg (0.00% change from the previous day), and SHFE silver inventory was 1217085.00 kg (0.35% change). COMEX gold and silver inventories also had slight increases [5]. Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Other Market Indicators - On July 17, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.15 (-0.09% change). The US dollar index was 98.29 (-0.35% change), and US Treasury yields and other indicators also changed [5]. Group 3: Core Views Short - term Logic - The decrease in the number of initial jobless claims in the US and strong retail sales data weakened the short - term downward risk of the US economy, which put pressure on precious metal prices. However, due to the uncertainty of tariffs and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, precious metal prices were also supported. It is expected that gold prices will continue to fluctuate. For silver, although the market risk preference is still high, the silver price may gradually strengthen, and the gold - silver ratio may start to rise [5]. Medium - and Long - term Logic - Against the background of the trade war, the Fed still has a certain probability of cutting interest rates this year. With global geopolitical uncertainties, the intensification of great - power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, the long - term upward trend of gold has not changed. It is recommended to continue to allocate long positions on dips [5]. Group 4: Market News - US President Trump announced on the 12th that starting from August 1, a 30% tariff would be imposed on EU imported goods. The EU Commission stated on the 14th that if the US - EU trade negotiation fails, the EU is ready to impose additional counter - tariffs on US imported products worth about $84 billion and has formulated a counter - measure list [5]. - Trump said he did not plan to remove Fed Chairman Powell from office. Fed official Williams said that the initial impact of tariffs on commodity prices was starting to be seen, and the impact on inflation was expected to intensify in the coming months [5]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 12 was 221,000, a new low since the week ending April 12, 2025. The number of continued jobless claims for the week ending July 5 was 1.956 million, lower than expected [5].

多位大银行 CEO 也公开表达了对美联储独立性的维护。他们警告，破坏美联储的独立性可能带来危险后果：短期会引发市场恐慌，长期则会削弱美元的储 备货币地位和美国金融市场的全球吸引力。摩根大通、高盛等华尔街巨头的掌门人纷纷表态，强调美联储不受政治干预是美国经济稳定的基石，这种共识形 成了强大的舆论压力，让特朗普在采取实际行动前不得不三思。 从市场反应来看，投资者的押注已得到初步验证。在特朗普升级施压后的几个交易日里，美国国债市场虽出现短暂波动，但 10 年期国债收益率仅小幅上升 5 个基点，远低于 2018 年美联储主席被公开批评时的波动幅度。这表明市场已部分消化了政治噪音，对美联储政策的信任度仍在。同时，美元指数保持稳 定，美股也未出现恐慌性抛售，显示出市场对 "政治威胁难落地" 的预期已成为主流。 深入分析可见，投资者的信心源于多重约束条件。从法律层面看，美联储主席的任免程序并非总统单方面决定，需经过参议院批准，而当前参议院的政治格 局使得解雇鲍威尔的提案难以通过。从政治逻辑看，特朗普若强行推动撤换，可能引发与司法系统的对峙，分散其竞选精力，得不偿失。从经济现实看，当 前美国经济虽有韧性，但尚未到需要紧急降息 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is rising, and Fed Chairman Powell may be removed. Geopolitical factors are still changeable, so it is recommended to buy gold on dips for hedging [8] - Trump's tariff policy doesn't directly target silver, but Comex silver premium became strong due to the high premium of copper, so it is also recommended to buy silver on dips for hedging [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Summary - Fed Governor Kugler said the Fed should not cut rates "for some time" as tariff impacts are being passed on to consumer prices. A tight monetary policy is needed to control inflation expectations. The 4.1% unemployment rate shows a stable job market close to full employment, and inflation is above the 2% target and facing upward pressure from tariffs. US retail sales in June increased 0.6% month-on-month, exceeding the expected 0.1% [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On July 17, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 776.22 yuan/gram and closed at 776.28 yuan/gram, down 0.05% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 776.74 yuan/gram, down 0.12% from the afternoon session [2] - On July 17, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 9,135.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,166.00 yuan/kg, up 0.15% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 906,865 lots, and the open interest was 438,247 lots. The night session closed at 9,204 yuan/kg, up 0.60% from the afternoon session [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On July 17, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.46%, down 0.04% from the previous trading day. The 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.56%, down 2 basis points from the previous trading day [3] SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes - On the Au2508 contract, the long position decreased by 1,831 lots and the short position decreased by 794 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts was 488,279 lots, up 47.74% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, the long position decreased by 610 lots and the short position decreased by 340 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,155,692 lots, up 15.74% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 948.50 tons, down 2.29 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 14,694.95 tons, down 124.34 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On July 17, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 2.26 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -702.99 yuan/kg [6] - The ratio of the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and silver main contract prices was about 84.69, down 0.20% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 88.16, up 0.40% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Data - On July 17, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d gold was 31,414 kg, up 16.05% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 281,830 kg, down 41.75% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 8,734 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 46,860 kg [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The index has broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range and the central position continues to move up during the new round of US trade policy negotiation window, but caution is needed when testing key positions. For the stock index, unilateral strategy suggests range operation and appropriate multi - allocation on dips [2] - The central bank's increase in open - market investment has improved the bond market sentiment, and the future situation of the tax - period capital and government bond supply needs to be observed. Curve strategy can appropriately bet on steepening [2] - There is more long - short game in the short - term gold market with support at the 60 - day moving average. Buying on dips is recommended for gold and silver, and there may be a phased pulse - type rise in silver [2] - The container shipping index is expected to oscillate strongly. For the EC2508 contract, unilateral operation is recommended to wait and see, and multi - material and short - raw material arbitrage can be considered [2] - Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating, and the decline in apparent demand should be noted. For steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke, buying on dips is recommended [2] - For copper, attention should be paid to the Sino - US tariff negotiation rhythm. The aluminum market has a strong expectation of off - season inventory accumulation. For non - ferrous metals, different trading strategies are given according to different varieties [2] - The short - term oil price has rebounded due to geopolitical risks. For different energy and chemical products, various trading strategies such as waiting and seeing, range operation, and buying on dips are recommended according to their fundamentals [2] - For agricultural products, different trading strategies such as short - term long, short - term wait - and - see, and short - selling on rebounds are recommended according to different varieties [2] - For special commodities and new energy products, trading strategies such as waiting and seeing, buying on dips, and short - selling on rallies are recommended according to different varieties [2] Group 3: Summaries by Related Categories Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: The index has broken through the short - term shock range, but caution is needed at key positions. Unilateral strategy suggests range operation and appropriate multi - allocation on dips [2] - **Treasury Bond**: The central bank's open - market operation has improved sentiment, and future capital and supply situations need to be observed. Curve strategy can bet on steepening [2] - **Precious Metals**: Gold has support at the 60 - day moving average, and buying on dips is recommended. Silver may have a phased pulse - type rise [2] Shipping and Industrial Materials Sector - **Container Shipping Index**: Expected to oscillate strongly. Unilateral operation on the EC2508 contract should wait and see, and arbitrage opportunities can be considered [2] - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are poor. Attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand, and buying on dips is recommended [2] - **Iron Ore, Coking Coal, Coke**: Black market sentiment has improved, and buying on dips is recommended [2] Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Attention should be paid to the Sino - US tariff negotiation rhythm. The mid - term surplus pattern remains unchanged [2] - **Aluminum**: There is a strong expectation of off - season inventory accumulation, and different price ranges are given for different varieties [2] Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The short - term oil price has rebounded due to geopolitical risks. Different trading strategies are given for different energy and chemical products according to their fundamentals [2] Agricultural Products Sector - Different trading strategies such as short - term long, short - term wait - and - see, and short - selling on rebounds are recommended for different agricultural products [2] Special Commodities and New Energy Sector - Different trading strategies such as waiting and seeing, buying on dips, and short - selling on rallies are recommended for special commodities and new energy products [2]

美国6月零售销售大超预期，美联储9月降息预期升温，联储下任主席热门人选沃勒更是呼吁7月降息。黄金跳水后今日亚盘有所 回升，当前金银油多头偏强，美股股指多空情绪分化，后市情绪如何？欢迎前往"数据库-嘉盛市场晴雨表"查看并订阅（数据每 10分钟更新1次）。 免责声明:本图表数据来源于公众号:嘉盛集团,数据仅供参考,不作为任何投资建议。 电话.1 > T 70 香港恒生指数 31% 69% 标普500指数 70% 30% 纳斯达克指数 44% 56% 道琼斯指数 32% 68% 日经225指数 58% 42% 德国DAX40指 21% 79% 数 外汇 r 多头 空头 欧元/美元 59% 41% 欧元/英镑 16% 84% 欧元/日元 8% 92% 欧元/澳元 15% 85% 英镑/美元 27% 73% 英镑/日元 29% 71% 美元/日元 74% 26% 美元/加元 44% 56% 美元/瑞郎 8% 97% 澳元/美元 72% 28% 澳元/日元 44% 56% 加元/日元 40% 60% 纽元/美元 23% 77% 纽元/日元 34% 66% 美元/离岸人 82% 18% 民币 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economy in the macro and financial sector is rated as (bullish) [1] Core View - The global economy maintains an upward trend. China strengthens its domestic cycle, Asian exports are strong, and the terminal demand is considered strong. Market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September 2025 and accelerate rate - cuts in 2026. China's comprehensive rectification of involution - style competition is expected to boost listed company performance. The European Central Bank has cut interest rates 8 times, Germany is expanding its military by 30%, and Meta plans to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in building large - scale data centers [1] Summary by Related Information AI Investment - AI investment covers three major directions: computing power, data, and downstream applications. The global data center construction in computing power is booming, and in application fields such as AI agents, intelligent driving, and intelligent terminals, China has many globally competitive enterprises [1] Eurozone Government Bonds - As the US dollar's safe - haven status is questioned, central banks around the world are increasing their allocation of eurozone government bonds, and the subscription ratio in eurozone government bond issuance has risen from 16% last year to 20% so far this year [1] Central Bank Independence - After JPMorgan Chase's Dimon took the lead, executives from Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citigroup also voiced their support for the central bank's independent operation without White House intervention [1] Japanese Stock Market - With the upcoming Japanese election, Japan's $6.8 trillion stock market faces a "reckoning" moment. Polls suggest that the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru may lose its majority in the Senate election this weekend [1] Stablecoin Business - JPMorgan Chase's CEO Dimon and Citigroup's CEO Fraser said they will participate in the stablecoin business, and JPMorgan needs to accept stablecoins to keep up with competitors [1] Tariffs and Inflation - New York Fed President Williams expects tariffs to add about one percentage point to inflation from the second half of 2025 to 2026, although the current comprehensive data shows only a relatively limited impact of tariffs [1] xAI's Expansion - Musk's xAI is looking to expand its infrastructure in the Middle East to power its computing - intensive AI models with the region's cheap energy, abundant capital, and political goodwill [1] Trump's Tariff Plan - Trump plans to impose tariffs slightly higher than 10% on at least 100 countries, including those in Africa and the Caribbean [1] Economic Data - The final value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in June 2025 was 52.0, continuing to expand. China's PMI production index and new order index in June 2025 resumed expansion. Germany's industrial output in May 2025 increased by 1.2% month - on - month [1]

换资前言： 7.18黄金行情走势分析： 黄金技术面分析：本周黄金价格走势反复无常。周三冲高回落，收出一根带有长上影线的阳线，显示上 方存在较强阻力；周四则下探回升，收出长下影线阴线，表明下方有一定支撑。当前均线系统走势杂 乱，进一步印证了整体处于宽幅震荡的格局。近期行情反反复复，昨晚又跌破了低点走出了延续下跌的 局面，目前短期的市场还是保持着震荡下跌的走势，并且昨晚金价已经反弹测试3343附近压力位的有效 性，目前的盘面已经开始见顶回落，也就说明3343附近有着较强的压力，早盘反弹之后我们可以继续 空！ 交易看起来确实简单，表面上，它不需要你风吹雨淋、低三下四的应酬，不用溜须拍马，不用拼酒伤 胃，不用忍气吞声，只需要在键盘上，敲动几个按钮"买"、"卖"，一笔生意马上就达成，钱迅速到账， 还不欠账，利润到手，多轻松。可是，等到交易做了一段时间，渐渐发现：市场老跟自己过不去，买了 就跌，卖了就涨，自己成了反向指标，怎么做都亏，怎么努力，怎么拼搏，尝试了各种方法，仍然无法 摆脱亏损的泥潭，发现交易如此之艰难。而这时候，你可能只是缺少一位负责任的老师、一个专业分析 团队为你的投资之路保驾护航，指明方向！下面请看作者金 ...