花旗：韩国央行转向"长期按兵不动"，2026年上半年加息基本无望 丹麦银行：挪威国债发行需求料稳健，但维持谨慎立场不变 摩根士丹利：澳大利亚四大银行股2026年估值或回调，降息预期逆转 【机构分析】 ·丹麦银行表示，挪威拟发行150亿至200亿挪威克朗的10年期国债，这进一步印证了该行对挪威债券市 场维持谨慎立场的合理性。尽管面临供应压力加大、外资参与度减弱等挑战，预计本周三的债券拍卖需 求仍将保持稳健。他强调，当前10年期国债的绝对收益率与资产互换利差均优于2025年同期水平，为 2026年债市开局创造了更有利的条件。 ·高盛分析师指出，2026年通胀前景显示，美国经济增长将成为政府债券收益率的主要驱动因素，进一 步强化债券资产的对冲属性。预计2026年底10年期美国国债收益率将升至4.20%（当前为4.16%），日 本10年期国债收益率将回落至2.0%（当前为2.12%），维持区间波动基准判断。 ·摩根士丹利表示，在通胀持续与潜在加息压力下，澳大利亚四大银行股估值或于2026年回调。该行指 出，自2023年底以来，四大行平均市盈率已因降息预期上升约6个基点，但这一趋势将在2026年逆转。 截至2025年1 ...

Core Viewpoint - Australia's inflation is projected to remain above the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target range of 2% to 3% until late 2027, despite a slight decrease in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in November 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation Data and Predictions - The overall CPI in Australia increased by 3.4% year-on-year in November, down from 3.8% in October, and below market expectations [1]. - The trimmed mean inflation rate also fell slightly from 3.3% to 3.2%, aligning with market expectations [1]. - The RBA's forecast indicates that the overall inflation rate will remain above 3% for most of 2026, with the trimmed mean inflation rate expected to stay above the target range until the second half of 2026 [2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Outlook - The RBA has initiated a rate cut cycle in 2025, reducing the cash rate to 3.6%, the lowest level since early 2023 [2]. - Market expectations regarding interest rate changes are mixed, with some economists predicting rate hikes in February 2026, while others anticipate no changes [2][3]. - Following the release of inflation data, the probability of a rate hike in February decreased from 37% to 32%, indicating a cooling of rate hike expectations [3]. Group 3: Economic Commentary - Economists express concerns that inflation pressures may prompt the RBA to raise rates in February, with some suggesting a potential increase of 40 basis points [3][4]. - Analysts from various banks have differing views on the likelihood of a rate hike, with some predicting that the RBA will maintain the current rate due to weak inflation momentum [5][4]. - The Australian economy is described as operating near full capacity, with a tight labor market, which may necessitate a cautious adjustment in monetary policy [4].

【黄金期货行情表现】 1月7日，沪金主力暂报998.90元/克，跌幅0.17%，今日沪金主力开盘价1006.00元/克，截至目前最高 1011.00元/克，最低997.64元/克。 【宏观消息】 美国供应管理协会(ISM)发布的调查显示，12月制造业指数降至47.9，为 2024年10月以来最低，且连续 第10个月低于50，新订单进一步萎缩，投入成本持续攀升，显示该行业仍深受特朗普政府进口关税的拖 累。调查显示，短期内制造业复苏的可能性不大，但随着特朗普的减税政策生效，经济学家仍对今年的 反弹抱有希望。 明尼阿波利斯联储总裁卡什卡利表示，通胀正在缓慢下降，但失业率仍有可能"跳升"。他表示："我认 为通胀风险在于其持续性，这些关税影响需要数年时间才能在系统中被消化，而我确实认为失业率可能 会从当前水平跳升。"他认为失业率约为4.6%，这表明劳动力市场正在降温。但他对显示通胀也在降温 的数据持怀疑态度，指出秋季创纪录的政府停摆导致数据收集出现问题。 【机构观点】 金银价格高位波动加剧，一方面，地缘政治紧张局势持续升温，有效提振了市场的避险情绪，资金流入 黄金等传统避险资产，为其价格提供了核心支撑。另一方面，白银在 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market declined at the beginning of the year, with the yields of ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds rising significantly. The 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond yields increased by 3.6bps and 4.3bps respectively to 1.88% and 2.31% compared to the previous week [1][9]. - The decline is due to multiple factors, including the strong performance of the stock market, concerns about bond supply, low central bank bond - buying volume, potential impacts from the surge in credit and social financing at the beginning of the year, and the temporary rebound in inflation data [1][2][9]. - Despite the current pressures, the relative value of bonds is changing. The impact of supply pressure is more about rhythm rather than trend, the inflation rebound's sustainability needs further observation, and the central bank's bond - buying has a cumulative effect and may increase [3][4]. - The stabilizing forces in the bond market are gradually strengthening. The bond market may remain volatile in January, and there may be a configuration opportunity at the end of the month [5][37]. 3. Summary by Related Content Reasons for the Bond Market Decline at the Beginning of the Year - **Stock Market Performance**: The strong stock market at the beginning of the year attracted non - bank funds from the bond market to the stock market and made investors more cautious about bond investment, shortening the duration and reducing long - term bond allocation. The Shanghai Composite Index exceeded 4000 points, rising more than 100 points in the first two trading days [2][9]. - **Supply Concerns**: The large - scale bond issuance in the first week and the significant increase in the single - issue size of treasury bonds raised concerns about future supply. The net financing of government bonds in the first week was 612.7 billion yuan, with treasury bond net financing of 495 billion yuan. The single - issue sizes of 2 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds this week were 175 billion yuan and 180 billion yuan respectively, significantly higher than the second half of last year [2][14]. - **Central Bank Bond - Buying**: The central bank's net purchase of treasury bonds in December was 5 billion yuan, the same as in November, which was lower than market expectations and increased the adjustment pressure on the bond market [2][19]. - **Other Factors**: At the beginning of the year, there may be impacts from the surge in credit and social financing and the temporary rebound in inflation. It is expected that the year - on - year CPI growth in December will expand to 1.1%, and the year - on - year decline in PPI may narrow to - 1.9% [2][22][23]. Analysis of the Mitigating Factors - **Stock - Bond Relative Value**: The stock - bond relative value is changing. The difference between the inverse of the P/E ratio of Wind All - A (excluding financial and petroleum sectors) and the 10 - year bond yield has returned to the level at the beginning of 2023. Bonds may even be more cost - effective compared to the current PMI [3][26]. - **Supply Pressure**: The increase in government bond supply is more of a rhythm issue. The incremental financing in 2026 may be limited compared to 2025. After the peak of credit and government bond issuance at the end of January, the impact on the bond market will gradually fade [3][29]. - **Inflation Rebound**: The temporary rebound in inflation is mainly driven by factors such as rising non - ferrous metal prices and short - term weather - related food price increases. Its impact on interest rates is limited, similar to the situation in 2019 - 2020 [4][30]. - **Central Bank Bond - Buying**: The central bank's bond - buying has a cumulative effect. Even with a monthly purchase of 5 billion yuan, the annual purchase will be about 60 billion yuan. As government bond supply increases, the purchase volume may also increase [4][31]. Outlook for the Bond Market - The bond market may remain volatile in January, with short - term interest rates potentially rising. After the supply shock at the end of the month, the bond market is expected to gradually recover. In the short term, a short - end leverage strategy can be adopted, waiting for configuration opportunities [5][37].

Group 1: Gold Market - Spot gold prices rose significantly due to heightened geopolitical tensions, reaching close to $4500 per ounce before experiencing a sharp decline, currently trading at approximately $4450.56 per ounce, down nearly 1% [1] - New York gold futures reported a price of $4455.99 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.89% [3] - Analysts from Morgan Stanley predict that gold prices will reach $4800 per ounce by Q4 2026, driven by declining interest rates, changes in Federal Reserve leadership, and continued buying by central banks and funds [17] Group 2: Silver Market - Spot silver prices fell over 3% during trading, currently at $78.36 per ounce, with New York silver futures down 3.5% at $78.20 per ounce [4][8] - Morgan Stanley anticipates that 2025 will see a peak in the silver market supply gap, with additional upward price risks due to China's new export licensing system [17] - Bank of America has set a target price range for silver between $135 and $309 per ounce, noting that silver's price increase of over 140% in 2025 is nearly double that of gold [19] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Federal Reserve officials express differing views on the need for aggressive interest rate cuts, with some suggesting a potential reduction exceeding 100 basis points this year [10][11] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to provide critical insights into the Fed's future monetary policy direction, with predictions of job growth slowing and an unemployment rate holding at 4.6% [10][15] - Analysts suggest that if the unemployment rate rises to 4.7%, the Fed may proceed with a 25 basis point cut, with a significant likelihood of more than 60 basis points in total cuts if labor market conditions worsen [16]

Metal Market - Domestic base metals collectively rose, with nickel closing at a limit-up of 8%, reaching 147,720 yuan/ton, the highest since June 2024 [1] - Tin increased by 5.33%, while aluminum and lead both rose over 1%, with aluminum up 1.18% and lead up 1.83% [1] - Alumina and casting aluminum also saw gains, with alumina rising by 4.97% and casting aluminum by 0.7% [1] - Lithium carbonate increased by 4.54%, and industrial silicon rose by 1.07%, while polysilicon fell by 2.13% [1] - In the black metal sector, stainless steel rose by 4.99%, iron ore by 4.09%, rebar by 2.87%, and hot-rolled coil by 2.52% [1] - Coking coal and coke both hit limit-up with a rise of 7.98%, priced at 1,164 yuan/ton and 1,773 yuan/ton respectively [1] - As of 15:07, foreign base metals showed mixed results, with London nickel's growth narrowing to 0.14% and copper down by 0.98% [1] - Precious metals saw COMEX gold down by 0.93% and silver down by 2.96%, while domestic gold fell by 0.17% and silver rose by 2.07% [1][2] Macro Environment - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 5,002 billion yuan through reverse repos, with a 7-day reverse repo operation of 286 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40% [5] - The US dollar index fell by 0.09% to 98.51, amid mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials regarding future monetary policy [6] - Upcoming economic data releases include China's foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves for December, as well as various US economic indicators [7] Oil Market - As of 15:07, both US and Brent crude oil prices fell, with US oil down by 1.58% and Brent by 1.2% [8] - Morgan Stanley analysts estimate a potential oversupply in the oil market of up to 3 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026 due to weak demand growth and increased supply from OPEC and non-OPEC countries [8] - API reported a decrease in US crude oil inventories by 2.77 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the trend of reversing the "involution" in the coal industry remains unchanged, with expectations for performance improvement in Q4 and potential recovery in 2026 if prices remain high [1] - The report highlights that since 2025, coal stocks have been negatively impacted by falling coal prices, but the pessimistic outlook has significantly eased following the implementation of Document No. 108 [1] - The concept of "involution" is aimed at reversing deflation trends, with a transmission chain of "deflation → reversal of involution → profit improvement → inflation," suggesting that short-term supply control and medium-term demand recovery are crucial for the coal sector [1] Group 2 - The report anticipates that coal consumption during the 14th Five-Year Plan is expected to peak, but coal will still play a crucial role in ensuring energy security [2] - It is projected that the demand for electricity from coal will not be significantly squeezed by the growth of renewable energy until the increase in renewable power generation exceeds the overall electricity demand growth [2] - The report suggests that in 2026, electricity demand must be maintained at a certain level to ensure that the demand for thermal power remains unaffected by renewable energy [2] Group 3 - For 2026, the forecast for thermal coal prices is expected to maintain a tight balance, with a central prediction of around 720 yuan/ton [3] - The report indicates that while market pressure for thermal coal will persist in the first half of 2026, it is expected to ease compared to the same period in 2025 [3] - The forecast for coking coal prices in 2026 is expected to show a weak balance with moderate elasticity, with a central price range of approximately 1440-1584 yuan/ton [3]

Group 1: Australian Dollar and Inflation Data - The Australian dollar (AUD) continues to rise against the US dollar (USD), achieving a four-day increase, driven by easing inflation data for November [1] - The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Australia increased by 3.4% year-on-year, down from 3.8% in October and below the market expectation of 3.7%, marking the lowest level since August [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to consider policy adjustments in its February meeting if core inflation rises by 0.9% or more [1][8] Group 2: Market Expectations and Economic Indicators - Market anticipates that the RBA's current policy adjustment cycle is not over, with inflation expected to remain high in the coming year [1] - The median CPI for the RBA increased by 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [1] - The market is closely watching upcoming economic data from the US, including the ISM services PMI and non-farm payroll data, which could influence Federal Reserve policy decisions [3][4] Group 3: Technical Analysis of AUD/USD - The AUD/USD is trading around 0.6750, reaching a 15-month high and breaking through this level, indicating an upward trend [9] - The technical analysis shows that the currency pair is in an ascending channel, but the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached 70, indicating an overbought condition [9] - Initial support for the AUD/USD is near the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6708, with further support at the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6700 [11]

与此同时，法国及西班牙公布的数据同样显示物价压力持续缓解，进一步增添了欧元区通胀缓解的广泛迹象。 法国12月CPI初值同比上涨0.8%，为七个月来最低水平，略低于预期的0.9%；调和CPI初值同比上涨0.7%，亦低于预期的0.8%。从细分项看，通胀放缓主 要归因于能源价格更明显的下跌，尤其是石油产品价格。另一方面，食品价格同比涨幅小幅加速至1.7%，主要反映新鲜产品价格上涨。同时，服务业通 胀保持稳定，12月同比涨幅为2.2%，继续维持在2%门槛上方。从环比看，CPI在11月下降0.2%后微涨0.1%，低于预期的0.2%涨幅，该上涨主要由服务价 格的季节性反弹所驱动，特别是交通服务价格；调和CPI环比也上涨0.1%。 欧元区整体通胀数据将于周三公布，经济学家预计整体通胀率将回落至2%的目标水平。花旗经济学家表示，对2026年GDP增长的更乐观看法导致其小幅 上调了核心通胀预测，但仍预计核心调和CPI将在2026年进一步放缓至1.8%。 根据欧洲央行自身预测，未来几个月将出现一连串低于目标的通胀读数，通胀将在2028年初回到目标水平。 新华财经北京1月7日电（王姝睿）欧元区一些主要经济体2025年12月通胀放缓 ...

Group 1 - The core value of central bank meeting minutes lies in revealing policymakers' assessments of economic growth, inflation levels, and employment markets, which directly influence market expectations regarding interest rate trends, a key driver of exchange rate pricing [1] - If the minutes indicate hawkish signals such as "high inflation pressure" or "need to tighten monetary policy further," it suggests a high probability of interest rate hikes, attracting international capital inflow and leading to currency appreciation [2] - Conversely, if the minutes emphasize weak economic growth or that inflation has returned to target levels, it signals potential interest rate cuts or increased monetary easing, reducing the attractiveness of domestic assets and suppressing currency value [4] Group 2 - The minutes also reveal policy disagreements among committee members, which can lead to short-term volatility in exchange rates; a consensus among members leads to stable market expectations, while significant disagreement increases uncertainty and volatility [6] - If the minutes indicate a close vote between rate hike proponents and those favoring cuts, it may result in significant fluctuations in exchange rates until new economic data or policy signals clarify the direction [6] - The market's understanding of the central bank's policy response function, influenced by the minutes, affects exchange rate pricing; for instance, if inflation data is highlighted as a core adjustment indicator, subsequent inflation releases will become critical for exchange rate movements [7] Group 3 - The impact of the meeting minutes on exchange rates also depends on the deviation from market expectations; if the content aligns with prior expectations, the effect is limited, but unexpected hawkish or dovish signals can lead to significant exchange rate movements [9] - Meeting minutes from major central banks like the Federal Reserve or European Central Bank have a more pronounced effect on global exchange rates compared to those from smaller economies [9]