Core Viewpoint - Japanese rubber futures have experienced six consecutive declines due to increased supply and market concerns, with institutions predicting a continued weak price trend in the short term [1] Industry Summary - The rubber market is facing dual pressures from rising supply levels and market apprehensions, leading to a bearish outlook for prices [1] - Institutions are forecasting that the downward trend in rubber prices is likely to persist in the near future [1]

Group 1: Copper Market - LME copper prices increased by 0.24% to $9,638.5 per ton, while SHFE copper rose by 0.5% to ¥78,180 per ton, with the domestic import window closed [1] - LME copper inventory decreased by 4,600 tons to 143,850 tons, while domestic mainstream copper inventory increased by 14,300 tons compared to the pre-holiday period [1] - The current copper price is facing a directional choice, with resistance observed in the ¥78,000 - ¥80,000 per ton range [1] Group 2: Nickel Market - LME nickel prices fell by 0.23% to $15,475 per ton, while SHFE nickel rose by 0.25% to ¥121,860 per ton [1] - LME nickel inventory increased by 1,152 tons to 201,462 tons, while domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 19 tons to 22,038 tons [1] - Nickel prices may experience short-term recovery but are expected to remain volatile due to weak demand [1] Group 3: Aluminum and Alumina Market - On the first trading day after the holiday, alumina prices showed a slight increase, with AO2509 closing at ¥3,036 per ton, up 1.27% [1] - SHFE aluminum also showed a slight increase, with AL2507 closing at ¥19,990 per ton, up 0.25% [1] - The supply and demand for alumina are both increasing, with support from the mining sector, while the demand for electrolytic aluminum remains under pressure [1] Group 4: Silicon Market - On the first trading day after the holiday, polysilicon prices showed a downward trend, with the main contract 2507 closing at ¥34,360 per ton, down 2.65% [1] - Industrial silicon prices also declined, with the main contract 2507 closing at ¥7,070 per ton, down 1.39% [1] - The reduction in electricity prices during the southwest flood season is leading to production resumption, while downstream procurement is decreasing [1] Group 5: Lithium Market - Carbonate lithium futures for contract 2507 increased by 0.33% to ¥59,940 per ton, while spot prices decreased and warehouse receipts fell by 60 tons [1] - Lithium ore prices are declining with increased supply, while demand from the positive electrode production is average but terminal sales are strong [1] - The fundamentals appear bearish, but price volatility is heightened due to capital market dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - The acrylic acid market has rebounded since mid-May, with prices reaching a new high of 7966.67 yuan per ton by May 28, driven by supply tightening and increased demand, although the momentum may not be sustainable post-holiday [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The acrylic acid market has shown a W-shaped trend in 2023, with two rounds of recovery leading to the recent peak, with prices nearing the 10,000 yuan mark [2]. - The first round of recovery occurred from early March to early April, where prices fell to a low of 7333.33 yuan due to new production capacity in Shandong, followed by a rebound to around 7833 yuan [2][3]. - The second round of recovery took place from April to May, with prices rising again after a period of weakness, reaching 7966.67 yuan [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent price increase is attributed to concentrated maintenance of production facilities and downstream replenishment demand, particularly in Shandong, where several key plants are undergoing repairs [4]. - Despite some plants resuming production, the supply remains tight, leading to increased bullish sentiment among suppliers and traders [4]. - Downstream demand has also contributed to price support, as small factories are concerned about future price trends and are increasing their inquiries [4]. Group 3: Short-term Outlook - The market is expected to face a shift in supply-demand dynamics post-Duanwu Festival, with a potential decrease in replenishment activities and a gradual increase in supply from previously offline facilities [5][6]. - There is a growing observation that the overall purchasing volume for acrylic acid and its derivatives may decline, leading to a more cautious market sentiment [5][6]. - Without significant positive factors, acrylic acid prices are likely to experience a narrow decline from the recent highs [6].

备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 6 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：随着旺季临近，动力煤利多因素开始积蓄，市场僵持博弈，价格暂稳运行。一方面， 国内煤价处在国际低洼，外贸煤进口性价比较 2024 年显著走低，引发进口量下滑。另一方面，随 着 6 月到来，我国将进入迎峰度夏关键时期，同时终端电厂仍有一定的旺季补库需求，对市场情 绪起到少许支撑。不过，动力煤中长期供需宽松的整体格局依然未变，且当前港口库存处于近五 年同期高位，今夏煤价旺季不旺的可能性依然较高。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 宝城期货投资 ...

季节性需求主导，包装纸走势或前低后高 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳，CFA/FRM（分析师） 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0002332 石忆宁（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03144064 日期：2025年6月3日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 核心结论：下半年走势前低后高，需求季节性为主要驱动 ➢ 供给压力仍然偏高，需求关注季节性变化。从供给端来看，瓦楞纸和箱板纸下半年产能投放压力仍然偏高，当前的利润水平对于产能 利用率可以形成一定支撑，原料端的废纸价格仍然处于震荡寻底的过程中。从需求端来看，瓦楞纸和箱板纸的需求具有明显的季节性， 消费呈现出前低后高，同比持续增长的趋势，但是流通环节库存水平较高或在一定程度上形成掣肘，潜在预期差来源于中美贸易政策 的变化。从价格角度来看，我们认为，需求仍然是主导因素，预计年内瓦楞纸和箱板纸价格前低后高。从产业链利润分配来看，与木 浆系成品纸不同的是，由于上游废纸回收行业较为分散，包装纸产业链话语权集中在下游，原料价格的上涨需要依赖于下游产成品价 格的好转，但是受产能投放速度大于需求 ...

油脂粕类6月报： 油脂震荡运行，粕类反弹空间有限 2025年5月 CO NTENTS 目 录 01 观点策略 0203 2025年5月油脂粕类行情回顾 油脂油料基本面分析 01 观点策略 观点策略 | | | 预计2025/26年度全球大豆延续供应宽松，虽然美豆种植面积减少，产量下降，但巴西大豆产量可能创纪录高位。目前美国大 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 豆主产区天气良好，大豆种植进度偏快。巴西大豆收割完成，处于出口高峰期，CNF升贴水小幅下降，阿根廷大豆收割进度较慢， | | | | 预计后续降雨量减少，大豆收割加快推进。国内大豆大量到港，周度压榨量超200万吨，豆油逐渐累库。目前美豆生长情况较好， | | | | 美国生柴政策可能不及预期，CBOT大豆和豆油震荡偏弱，后续关注美豆主产区天气和美国生柴政策。 | | | 核心 | 棕榈油处于季节性增产期，但高频数据显示马来西亚5月份棕榈油产量仅小幅增加，而出口需求改善，预示5月份马来西亚棕 | | | 逻辑 | 榈油累库幅度较小。印度植物油库存偏低，存在进口需求，提振马棕出口。国内棕榈油库存维持低位，预计后续进口量逐渐增加。 | | ...

摘 要： 供需关系：当前浮法玻璃企业利润不佳，本周有产线存放水预 期，暂无点火及出玻璃的情况下，周度产量预计下降。浮法玻璃终端 需求仍偏弱，下游深加工企业订单偏弱，浮法玻璃企业库存小幅下降。 预计玻璃价格近期震荡偏弱，09合约上方压力1000一线。建议短线高 抛低吸，注意止损。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：蒯三可 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货从业资格号：F03040522 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 风险提示：下游深加工企业订单回升超预期缓慢 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 企业库存较稳，需求仍偏弱 证监许可【2011】1775 号 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 | 第1章 | 行情回顾 | | 4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 第2章 | 价格影响因素分析 | | 5 | | 第3章 | 行情展 ...

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The supply - demand relationship of soda ash is expected to be loose. The price of soda ash is predicted to be weak with fluctuations in the near term. The upper pressure level for the 09 contract is 1235. It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the short - term and pay attention to stop - loss [2][22]. 3) Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The domestic soda ash market weakened steadily, with prices declining slightly. There was a lack of positive support in the market, and the futures price adjusted at a low level. At the beginning of the week, some enterprises lowered prices due to increased supply. Towards the weekend, the news of Alxa's maintenance eased the industry sentiment, and the market was in a cautious wait - and - see mode [8]. - The weekly domestic soda ash production was 685,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21,200 tons or 3.19%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 78.57%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.6243 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.13%. The pending orders of soda ash enterprises were less than 9 days, showing a downward trend [8]. Chapter 2: Price Influence Factor Analysis 2.1 Supply - demand Analysis - **Supply Side Analysis - Supply Expected to Increase Slightly**: As of May 29, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 78.57%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The expected capacity utilization rate this week is over 79%. The theoretical profit of the soda ash by the dual - ton soda ash method was 215 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 53 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda method was 67.20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.75% [11]. - **Demand Side Analysis - Downstream Demand of Soda Ash Expected to be Weakly Stable**: As of May 29, there were 102 in - production kilns for photovoltaic glass, with a daily melting volume of 98,780 tons. The industry inventory days increased by 0.58 days. There were no new kiln investment or cold - repair plans this week, and the supply is expected to remain stable. The production of float glass was 1.1041 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.64% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.25%. Due to the expected water storage of production lines, the weekly output is expected to decline [15]. - **Inventory Analysis - Inventory of Soda Ash Enterprises Expected to Remain High**: As of May 29, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.6243 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 52,500 tons or 3.13%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 818,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,500 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 806,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 38,000 tons [18]. 2.2 Position Analysis As of May 30, the long positions of the top 20 members in the soda ash futures were 994,153, a decrease of 29,228, and the short positions were 1,238,089, a decrease of 35,074. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [20]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current production of soda ash is stable at a high level with average profit, and the production is expected to increase slightly this week. The downstream demand of soda ash is expected to be weakly stable. The production of float glass is expected to decline, while the supply of photovoltaic glass remains stable, and the inventory continues to rise. Under the expected loose supply - demand situation, it is difficult for the high - level inventory of soda ash enterprises to continue to decline [22]. - The price of soda ash is expected to be weak with fluctuations in the near term. The upper pressure level for the 09 contract is 1235. It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the short - term and pay attention to stop - loss [2][22].

Core Insights - The egg prices are experiencing a weak trend due to seasonal demand decline and supply pressure, with average prices in major production areas showing a downward trend [1][4] - As of June 3, the national average egg prices in various regions are reported, with notable prices in Shandong at 6.90 yuan/kg and Fujian at 7.00 yuan/kg [2] - The futures market shows a decline in egg futures, with the main contract closing at 2897.00 yuan/500 kg, down 1.16% [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - As of the end of May, the monthly sales volume of eggs in major consumption areas is 37,200 tons, a decrease of 5.68% compared to April [3] - The inventory levels in the production and circulation stages are at historically low levels, with production inventory at 0.98 days and circulation inventory at 1.07 days [3] - The number of laying hens as of May 2025 is 1.334 billion, showing a slight increase compared to previous months, indicating a high supply level [3] Market Dynamics - The firm corn prices are providing cost support for egg production, while the current egg prices are at a low level for the year, leading to replenishment demand in the market [4] - High levels of laying hen inventory and increased production pressure from newly added hens are contributing to a sufficient supply of eggs [4] - The impact of hot and humid weather is raising storage costs for eggs, leading to cautious purchasing behavior from downstream distributors [4]

研究员：漆建华 咨询证号（Z0017731） 苹果日报 撰写品种：苹果 撰写时间 2025.5.30 回顾周期：日报 一、期货行情回顾 图1：苹果AP2510 合约走势图 图片来源：国金期货行情软件 截至今日收盘，苹果期货小幅下跌，当日苹果期货主力 AP2510 合约开盘价 7640 元/吨，最高价 7678 元/吨,最低价 7592 元/吨，当日收盘价为 7675 元/吨，当日结算 价为 7636 元/吨，和昨天相比，今日结算价下跌 17 元/吨，今日成交量为 53199 手， 和昨天相比下降 9306 手，持仓 105238 手，较昨日减少 1615 手。 二、现货基本面情况 产区行情:5 月 30 日，山东沂源产区苹果库内 70#统货最低价 2.00 元/斤，最高价 公司热线：028 6130 3163 研究所邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉：4006821188 2.80 元/斤，中间价 2.40 元/斤，中间价环比持平。75#统货最低价 2.80 元/斤，最高 价 3.50 元/斤，中间价 3.2 元/斤，中间价环比持平。次果最低价 0.80 元/斤，最高价 1.30 元/斤， ...