Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Market Environment Review: Equity Market** In 2025, the equity market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.76%, Shenzhen Component Index by 0.48%, and ChiNext Index by 0.53% [2][4]. Global markets also performed well, with the S&P 500 increasing by 5.50%, Nasdaq by 5.48%, and the Hang Seng Index by 20.00% [2][4]. - **Market Environment Review: Commodity Market** The Nanhua Commodity Index decreased by 2.09% in 2025, while precious metals increased by 20.74% and agricultural products by 3.20% [6][9]. - **Market Environment Review: Bond Market** The China Government Bond Index rose by 0.86%, the China Credit Bond Index by 1.18%, and the Convertible Bond Index by 7.02% [12][13]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Equity Asset Returns** The performance of various equity indices in 2025 showed significant variation, with MSCI Europe leading at 20.67% and the Shanghai Composite Index lagging at 2.76% [4]. The average return for equity assets was reported at 7.87% for the first half of 2025, with 82.74% of products achieving positive returns [19][20]. - **Private Fund Issuance** There were 4,204 new private fund products registered in 2025, with 957 new securities private funds in June alone [15][16]. - **Performance of Private Fund Strategies** The subjective long/short strategy yielded a return of 10.55% with a maximum drawdown of -15.04% [24]. The quantitative long strategy outperformed with a return of 14.00% and a maximum drawdown of -13.38% [32]. The stock long/short strategy achieved a return of 9.91% with a maximum drawdown of -9.37% [41]. Additional Important Information - **Private Fund Performance by Size** The average return for subjective long/short products varied by size, with products sized between 5 million to 10 million yielding 8.00% and those over 2 billion yielding 8.63% [28][35]. For quantitative long products, those over 2 billion had the highest average return at 20.47% [36]. - **Positive and Negative Return Distribution** The distribution of returns showed that 17.26% of products had negative returns, with an average loss of -3.62% [19][20]. The average position for subjective long/short products was reported at 86.81% [24]. - **Strategy Distribution in Private Fund Registration** The majority of new private fund strategies were categorized as "other," accounting for 82.45% of the total [17]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the performance of various markets and private fund strategies, as well as the overall market environment in 2025.

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is conducting a 400 billion MLF operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, marking the fifth consecutive month of increased operations [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - On July 25, PBOC will conduct a 400 billion MLF operation with a one-year term, resulting in a net injection of 1000 billion due to 3000 billion MLF maturing this month [1][2]. - The total net liquidity injection in July reached 3000 billion, which is comparable to the previous month's 3180 billion [2][4]. - The central bank's actions are aimed at stabilizing medium-term liquidity and ensuring smooth funding conditions [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Analysis - Analysts suggest that the ongoing net liquidity injection is driven by two main factors: the rapid issuance of government bonds and an accelerated pace of credit extension, necessitating coordination between monetary and fiscal policies [2][4]. - The PBOC's continued use of quantity-based tools signals a supportive monetary policy, which is intended to stabilize market expectations and create a favorable environment for credit expansion [2][4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - In the short term, the probability of interest rate cuts is low, but the monetary policy will remain proactive under the broader goal of expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth [3][4]. - The MLF operations are expected to continue with increased volumes, alongside timely injections of medium to long-term funds through reverse repos [4]. - The bond market is experiencing adjustments due to tight funding conditions and shifting market risk preferences, with yields on government bonds rising [5].

Core Viewpoint - The current A-share market is experiencing a bullish trend, with significant indicators showing upward movement and optimism among institutional investors [2][12]. Market Stage Analysis - The number of stocks in a bullish arrangement is 3,061 as of July 23, which is still within a normal range compared to previous high periods [3][14]. - The ratio of financing balance to circulating market value is currently at 2.24%, lower than the levels seen in March and April [4][14]. - The current valuation level indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index is about 20% away from its high, while the ChiNext has more room for growth. Compared to the U.S. market, A-shares are relatively undervalued [5][15]. - The M1 money supply showed a significant rebound in June, and market interest rates remain low, indicating a favorable liquidity environment [6][15]. - Market expectations are not fully priced in, as evidenced by the reactions to recent events like the Yajiang Hydropower Station and Hainan developments, suggesting a cautious approach among investors [7][16]. Breakthrough Indicators - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 3,600-point mark, facing some resistance but showing strong support from other indices [9][10]. - The China Securities 1000 ETF and average stock prices also surpassed their March highs, indicating a broad market strength despite some pressure [10][11]. Institutional Sentiment - Major brokerages like CITIC are optimistic about the A-share market, drawing parallels to the 2014 market conditions. UBS's China equity strategy head noted potential pressures in the Hong Kong market but maintained a positive outlook for H-shares and the overall Chinese stock market [12].

Core Insights - The central viewpoint indicates that the central bank's net injection of 1.2 trillion yuan is expected to improve liquidity expectations, with a notable increase in financing buy-ins and significant net inflows from southbound funds [1][2]. Macro Liquidity - Domestic liquidity saw a decline in both 2-year and 10-year government bond yields, with the yield spread widening. The central bank's open market net injection was 1.2011 trillion yuan, while 3,000 million yuan was withdrawn through MLF in July [2][12]. - Internationally, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased while the 10-year yield increased, leading to a rise in the dollar index. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.44%, and the dollar index reached 98.46, with the China-U.S. 10-year bond yield spread widening to -2.77% [2][17]. Market Liquidity - Public funds: In July 2025, 71 new funds were established, with 39 being equity funds, totaling approximately 11.6 billion shares issued [3][22]. - ETF funds: 15 new equity ETFs were established in July 2025, with a total issuance of 6.8 billion shares [3][25]. - Southbound funds: There was a significant net inflow of southbound funds, totaling 735.9 billion yuan year-to-date, with major inflows into non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, and consumer services [3][32][34]. - Margin financing: The average financing buy-in amount was 148.8 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.3% increase week-on-week, with significant net inflows in the computer, machinery, and electronics sectors [4][39]. Fundraising - In July, there were 4 IPOs raising approximately 22.1 billion yuan, with total equity financing around 43.4 billion yuan [4][45].

Core Viewpoint - The small-cap stocks are performing exceptionally well, with the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) rising by 86% over the past year, significantly outperforming the CSI 2000 index, which has increased by less than 60% [1] Market Activity - The A-share market recently saw two significant indicators reaching the "1.9 trillion" mark: the total trading volume and the financing balance, both returning to this level after several months [1] - A net financing purchase of 15.4 billion yuan was recorded in a single day, marking the highest level since March of this year, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the market [1] Investment Strategy - Despite the strong performance of the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF, there are warnings about accumulated valuation risks and potential liquidity changes that could lead to a market pullback [3] - Investors are advised to embrace the trend but avoid reckless chasing of high prices; instead, a strategy of gradual accumulation during dips is recommended [3][4] - The CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF serves as an effective tool to manage the high volatility of small-cap stocks, providing a more controlled risk compared to betting on individual stocks [4]

国债期货日报 2025年7月22日 大宗商品大幅反弹 观点：交易盘暂时观望 南华研究院 高翔（Z0016413） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 盘面点评： 国债期货开盘偏强窄幅震荡，盘中跳水翻绿，随着风险资产走强价格持续下跌，午后二次跳水，尾盘明显收 跌。结构上短端偏强，TS09下跌0.008。10Y活跃券250011当日上行1.2bp，接近1.69%。流动性进一步改 善，资金利率回到1.3%的关键水平，开盘前隔夜匿名1.3%超过1400亿大额，DR001同样下行回到1.3%附 近。 日内消息： 1.俄罗斯总统新闻秘书、克宫发言人佩斯科夫表示，俄罗斯总统普京将于9月访华，出席中国人民抗日战争暨 世界反法西斯战争胜利80周年纪念活动，俄方正为此次访华行程做筹备。 行情研判： 当前风险资产强势，不光是权益市场内部轮动接力，同样体现在风险资产之间的先后上涨提供支撑，风险偏 好整体强势，加上国债期货价格下跌破位，交易盘短期建议暂时止损观望，等待重要会议后反内卷政策细节 全部落地。 TS主力：净基差与基差 source： wind,南华研究 元 TS净基差：主连 TS基差：主连 10/31 12/3 ...

国债期货日报 2025年7月21日 左侧尝试 观点：交易盘试多，需要带好止损 南华研究院 高翔（Z0016413） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 盘面点评： 国债期货跳空低开，T2509低开一毛钱，早盘偏弱震荡，午后小幅上行，跌幅收窄。资金方面，公开市场到 期2262亿，央行新做1707亿，净回笼555亿。流动性有所改善，DR001加权从上周五的1.45%回到1.35%附 近，午后隔夜匿名价格回到1.3%。非银流动性同样充裕，交易所资金价格日内震荡下行，同样回落到1.35% 附近。 日内消息： | TS2509 | 102.416 | 102.434 | -0.018 | 102.378 | TS合约持仓(手） | 122170 | 123247 | -1077 | 34519 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TF2509 | 105.935 | 106.005 | -0.07 | 105.885 | TF合约持仓(手） | 209691 | 206287 | 3404 | 208905 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report -下半年降息不确定性增加，需关注7月政治局会议增量信号 [5][36] -若降息落地或相对后置，三季度末或四季度概率高，幅度或延续上半年10BP；若无降息落地，流动性无需过多担忧，债市短端或受冲击，中长期呈震荡格局 [5][36][40] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Possible Scenarios and Boundaries of Interest Rate Cuts - **Monetary Expansion May Not Boost Prices**: "Promoting a reasonable recovery of prices" has become an important consideration for monetary policy. The relationship between prices and money is affected by multiple factors. Overseas, quantitative easing may not solve "low inflation." In China, the current supply - demand imbalance means that monetary expansion may suppress price recovery, so the use of aggregate monetary policy will be more cautious [2][9][12] - **Smoothing the Interest Rate Transmission Mechanism is Also Key**: Besides interest rate cuts, smoothing the interest rate transmission mechanism is crucial for reducing real - economy financing costs. Attention will be paid to financial institutions' pricing ability and enterprises' non - interest costs, especially considering the low net interest margin of commercial banks [3][21] - **Dynamic Balance of Monetary Policy**: The 5.3% GDP growth in H1 2025 reduces the urgency of interest rate cuts in the short term. In supporting expansionary fiscal policy, the central bank has various tools, and interest rate cuts may not be the top option. The central bank's support will be "moderately loose" and maintain a dynamic balance [4][27][29] 3.2 If There is No Interest Rate Cut in the Second Half of the Year - **Interest Rate Cut Scenario**: If an interest rate cut occurs, it may be postponed to the end of Q3 or Q4, with a likely 10BP reduction [5][36] - **No Interest Rate Cut Scenario**: The supportive monetary policy stance remains. Liquidity is not a major concern. In the bond market, short - term bonds may be impacted if market expectations are disappointed. In the long - term, there will be an oscillation pattern, and attention should be paid to factors causing bond market fluctuations [5][40]

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Huatai-PineBridge Dividend Growth Mixed A (006259) reported a profit of 5.4346 million yuan for Q2 2025, with a net asset value growth rate of 0.82% and a fund size of 735 million yuan as of the end of Q2 2025 [3][15]. Fund Performance - The fund's weighted average profit per share for the reporting period was 0.0104 yuan [3]. - As of July 18, 2025, the unit net value was 1.598 yuan [3]. - The fund's performance over different time frames includes: - 3-month net value growth rate: 6.13%, ranking 210 out of 256 comparable funds [4]. - 6-month net value growth rate: 9.21%, ranking 144 out of 256 comparable funds [4]. - 1-year net value growth rate: 9.40%, ranking 203 out of 256 comparable funds [4]. - 3-year net value growth rate: -11.24%, ranking 108 out of 239 comparable funds [4]. Investment Strategy and Outlook - The fund manager anticipates a gradual reduction in overseas tariff impacts and a slow improvement in the domestic low-inflation environment, expecting macro policies to support economic recovery [4]. - The liquidity environment is expected to remain ample, with potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and the domestic central bank [4]. - The fund maintains a balanced industry allocation, focusing on high-quality companies with long-term value in a dividend strategy [4]. Risk Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past three years is -0.1277, ranking 160 out of 240 comparable funds [9]. - The maximum drawdown over the past three years is 30.07%, ranking 194 out of 240 comparable funds, with the largest single-quarter drawdown recorded at 20.81% in Q1 2021 [11] [11]. Portfolio Composition - As of June 30, 2025, the fund's average stock position over the past three years was 77.62%, compared to the industry average of 85.68% [14]. - The top ten holdings of the fund include: - Zijin Mining - China Shenhua - Agricultural Bank of China - Tencent Holdings - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank - Shanghai Bank - Beijing Bank - China Yangtze Power - Bank of China - China Pacific Insurance [18].

Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank injected a total of 1.2011 trillion yuan through OMO and MLF this week, with a reverse repo of 1.4 trillion yuan on Tuesday[3] - DR001 rose to 1.53% on Tuesday due to tax payments and government bond payments, but stabilized around 1.45% after the tax period ended[3] - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos decreased by 0.97 trillion yuan to 7.24 trillion yuan compared to last week[3] Government Debt and Financing - The actual net payment of government bonds this week was 428.8 billion yuan, expected to decrease to 269.9 billion yuan next week[4] - Cumulative issuance of new general bonds in 2025 reached 494.1 billion yuan, with new special bonds at 2.3889 trillion yuan[4] - The forecast for July government bond issuance was slightly adjusted down to 1.22 trillion yuan, with a net financing scale of approximately 460 billion yuan[4] Market Sentiment and Expectations - The central bank emphasized that the effects of implemented monetary policies will continue to manifest, indicating a reduced impetus for further loosening in the short term[3] - The central bank's recent decision to remove the freezing of collateral for bond repos may signal a potential restart of bond purchases, although the impact is expected to be limited[3] - Despite expectations of gradual liquidity easing post-tax period, DR001 may not return to the early July low of 1.3%[3]