Core Viewpoint - The market's calm reaction to Trump's tariff policy may provide the government with room to impose further tax increases, pushing the Federal Reserve towards a more cautious stance, with the effective tariff rate potentially rising to 16% or higher, leading to stagflation risks extending until 2026 [1][7]. Tariff Escalation Exceeds Market Expectations - On July 4, President Trump announced new unilateral tariff rates, with potential rates ranging from 10% to 70%, expected to take effect on August 1 [2][5]. - Bank of America analysts indicated that the latest tariff announcement could raise the effective tariff rate by nearly 5 percentage points to about 16%, significantly higher than the previously expected 10% [2]. Market's Indifferent Reaction as a Catalyst for Policy Escalation - Bank of America noted that the market's indifferent response to tariff news could inadvertently encourage the government to escalate the trade war further [6]. - The lack of market reaction may provide the Trump administration with a buffer to absorb new uncertainties and tensions with major trading partners [6]. Stagflation Risks Intensify, Narrowing Federal Reserve's Policy Space - An increase in the effective tariff rate by approximately 5 percentage points could reduce the fiscal deficit by about 50 basis points, but its impact on a deficit exceeding 6% of GDP is limited [7]. - The new tariff announcement introduces significant inflationary and economic growth risks, with potential inflation rising by about 30 basis points [7]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs poses a downside risk to economic growth, potentially undermining the stimulus effect of the "Big Beautiful Plan" on capital expenditures [10]. Long-term Inflation Impact and Federal Reserve's Position - If tariffs are implemented on August 1, there is a risk of larger and more persistent inflation shocks, with core PCE potentially peaking at 3.5% by 2026 [10]. - The Federal Reserve's ability to act may be constrained by the need for clearer insights into the impacts of policy changes, especially if significant changes to the tariff system are anticipated [10]. - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve being "frozen in place" increases as stagflation shocks may extend until 2026, aligning with Bank of America's non-consensus expectation of no rate cuts this year [10].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the Japanese economy and its currency, the yen, in the context of recent political developments and economic challenges [1][3][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Stagnation and Inflation Risks**: Japan is facing stagflation risks due to external trade war pressures and rising domestic food prices, particularly affecting the export of transportation equipment due to high tariffs, which has weakened overall export data and reduced residents' purchasing power [1][3]. - **Political Landscape**: Following the recent Senate elections, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lost its majority, leading to a mismatch in government power and legislative authority. This has raised concerns about fiscal discipline, as the opposition advocates for fiscal expansion and tax cuts, while the ruling party is cautious about increasing debt levels [1][3][4]. - **Monetary Policy Normalization**: The Bank of Japan's move towards normalizing monetary policy has resulted in rising long-term Japanese government bond yields, compounded by high U.S. bond yields, which exacerbates Japan's debt issues and raises market concerns about fiscal management [1][5]. - **Short-term Outlook for Yen Assets**: Yen assets are expected to remain under pressure in the short term due to weak economic fundamentals, stalled U.S.-Japan trade negotiations, and internal political instability. A recovery in market risk appetite is contingent on the resolution of election-related uncertainties and clarity on tax reduction policies [1][3][4]. - **Structural Opportunities in Specific Sectors**: Despite the overall economic challenges, there are structural investment opportunities in sectors such as high-end manufacturing, particularly semiconductors and communication equipment, which are expected to perform well due to policy support [1][6][8]. Additional Important Content - **Military Spending**: Japan's military spending has reached a historical high in the new fiscal year, which could benefit domestic stocks if the opposition pushes for tax cuts. This increase in military expenditure is also a factor to consider in the broader economic context [1][6]. - **Impact of Political Risks on Currency**: The yen's performance is influenced by multiple factors, including internal political risks and debt constraints. While there are concerns about long-term credit risks if the opposition promotes fiscal stimulus, the current political risks are deemed limited, reducing the likelihood of significant currency depreciation [2][7][9]. - **High-end Manufacturing Investment**: The ruling party's cautious fiscal approach does not extend to high-end manufacturing, where there is active investment, indicating potential growth in this sector despite broader economic weaknesses [8]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the challenges and opportunities within the Japanese economy and its currency dynamics.

Core Viewpoint - Jefferies has raised the S&P 500 index target price for the end of 2025 to 5600 points, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 20 times, while cautioning about historical seasonal patterns and macroeconomic indicators [1] Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is facing stagflation risks, with GDP growth expected to slow to 1.9% by July 2025 according to UN forecasts [1] - Core CPI and unemployment rates are projected to rise to 3% and 4.4%, respectively [1] - The Trump administration's tariffs, effective from April 2025, are disrupting global supply chains and causing a sharp decline in export growth in the Asia-Pacific region [1] Earnings and Valuation - The S&P 500 index's current valuation is considered high, with expected earnings growth of only 5% year-over-year for 2025, which is seen as insufficient compared to the current valuation levels [1] Sector Allocation - Jefferies recommends an overweight position in communication services (XLC.US) and utilities (XLU.US), while maintaining a neutral stance on real estate, information technology, financials (XLF.US), industrials (XLI.US), and healthcare (XLV.US) [2] - A reduction in holdings is suggested for energy (XLE.US), consumer discretionary (XLY.US), and materials (XLB.US) sectors, reflecting a preference for stable cash flow areas amid macroeconomic uncertainty [2] Geopolitical Considerations - Trump's tariff policies are reshaping global trade dynamics, forcing traditional allies like the EU and Japan to adjust their strategies, with Japan even postponing planned talks to resist defense spending pressures [2] - Geopolitical instability and policy reversals are increasing market concerns regarding cyclical sectors such as non-essential consumer goods [2]

Core Viewpoint - A power struggle is unfolding between Wall Street and the White House regarding interest rates, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell facing pressure from hawkish sentiments and potential leadership changes [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Dallas Fed President Logan's hawkish speech emphasized the need to maintain a 4.25% interest rate range for at least 6 to 12 months, dampening hopes for rate cuts [3][4]. - Market reactions to Logan's speech were immediate, with the probability of a rate cut in September dropping from 65% to 58%, and the likelihood of two cuts this year plummeting from 93% to 76% [3]. - The latest June meeting minutes revealed a split among Fed officials, with some advocating for immediate rate cuts, while others expressed concerns about inflation driven by tariffs [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year, marking a four-month high, while core CPI increased by 2.9%, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [4]. - Concerns about tariffs affecting consumer prices were highlighted, with 88% of manufacturing firms and 82% of service firms planning to pass on tariff costs to consumers [4]. - The trade war's impact was underscored by Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on Mexico, prompting retaliatory measures and raising fears of broader economic repercussions [4]. Group 3: Market Volatility and Political Dynamics - Trump's contemplation of firing Powell led to significant market volatility, with stock prices dropping and bond yields rising, only for his stance to reverse shortly after [5]. - Logan's use of the term "trauma" to describe current risks indicates the precarious balance the Fed must maintain between rising inflation and the need for potential rate cuts [7]. - The ongoing political dynamics and potential leadership changes at the Fed create uncertainty in the financial markets, as the next chair will face tough decisions amid conflicting pressures [7].

Group 1 - The potential default on U.S. Treasury bonds could lead to a collapse of the dollar's credit system and a weakening of its status as a global reserve currency, resulting in a loss of trust in the dollar and a shift towards alternative assets like gold and the yuan [1][3] - The process of de-dollarization may accelerate, with countries like Saudi Arabia pushing for oil trade settlements in non-dollar currencies, further diminishing the dollar's dominance in global commodity pricing [3][6] - A global financial crisis could ensue, characterized by a liquidity crisis and asset price collapse, as U.S. Treasury yields surge, increasing global borrowing costs and making corporate financing more difficult [3][5] Group 2 - Hedge funds and pension funds with significant exposure to U.S. Treasuries may face bankruptcy, and the risk of bank runs could re-emerge, leading to systemic liquidity shortages [5][6] - Emerging market countries may experience heightened debt repayment pressures and an increased risk of sovereign debt defaults due to the depreciation of the dollar, which could trigger volatility in commodity prices [5][6] - The U.S. economy may fall into a "stagflation" scenario, with rising unemployment and shrinking consumer spending, compounded by the dollar's depreciation driving up import prices [6][8] Group 3 - Long-term structural risks persist, even if a default is avoided, as the U.S. faces unsustainable fiscal policies, with federal debt projected to reach 180% of GDP by 2050 and interest payments consuming a growing share of tax revenues [10] - Credit ratings for U.S. debt have been downgraded by major rating agencies, leading to a long-term increase in financing costs [10] - A default on U.S. debt could trigger a credit crisis for the dollar, a global financial tsunami, and a geopolitical realignment, with even a technical default exposing the unsustainable fiscal situation [10]

随着唐纳德·特朗普总统持续向美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔施加压力，早些时候两人曾经的对峙或许能为当前的僵局提供些许线索。 回顾2019年，和今天的局面相似，特朗普当时强烈要求美联储迅速降息，并因此引发了有关鲍威尔是否能继续担任美联储主席以及他是否会被解职的广泛讨 论。 鲍威尔再次重申："答案是'不'。" 沃特斯不甘心地追问："你认为总统没有解雇你的权力？这就是你不愿离开的原因吗？" 鲍威尔表示："法律明确规定我有四年的任期，我完全打算为这个任期服务。" 2019年，鲍威尔曾公开表示，为了保护美联储的独立性，他宁愿随船沉没，也不愿为了保住个人职位而屈服于政治压力。 如今，特朗普继续对鲍威尔施压，似乎这场对峙的背后，隐藏着一些可能对当前局面产生影响的深层次因素。 那时候的特朗普，除了为加快降息施压，还因为他发动的贸易战而要求美联储采取更多宽松政策。这一举动，再次引发了关于鲍威尔是否能继续领导美联储 的质疑，特别是他是否会在特朗普的压力下下台。 在2019年7月的众议院金融服务委员会听证会上，时任委员会主席的玛克辛·沃特斯曾问鲍威尔："如果今天或明天你接到总统的电话，他说'我要解雇你，收 拾东西，准备离开'，你会怎么做 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions, with 19 decision-makers split into three camps regarding interest rate policies, indicating a significant "hawk-dove" debate [1][5] - Dallas Fed President Logan's strong stance suggests that the current interest rate level of 4.25% may persist for 6 to 12 months, providing theoretical support for high interest rate policies despite a slight decline in inflation data [1][5] - Political pressure is mounting as President Trump criticizes Fed Chair Powell and calls for immediate interest rate cuts, which could influence the Fed's decision-making process [1][3] Group 2 - The global trade landscape is volatile, with the Trump administration imposing high tariffs on several countries, while simultaneously lifting tariffs on China, leading to unpredictable market reactions [3][5] - Employment data shows a mixed picture, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000 in June, but private sector job growth nearly stagnant when excluding certain sectors [5][7] - Market indicators are fluctuating, with the probability of a rate cut in September dropping from 75% to 54.4%, reflecting uncertainty in economic conditions [5][7] Group 3 - Gold prices are hovering around $3,330, while the dollar index has fallen below 97, marking a new low since February 2022, indicating shifts in investor sentiment [7] - The stock market is reacting unevenly, with the Nasdaq reaching a historical high while the Dow Jones experienced a significant drop of 436 points, showcasing the divergent performance of technology stocks [7] - Economists at the New York Fed are analyzing the complexities of the Fed's June meeting minutes to navigate the challenges of inflation, employment, and economic resilience [7][5]

Core Economic Indicators - Japan's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding fresh food rose by 3.3% year-on-year in June, reaching 111.4, marking the seventh consecutive month of inflation above 3% [1] - The increase in food prices, particularly grains and processed foods, remains the primary driver of inflation, with ordinary japonica rice prices soaring nearly 100% and coffee beans rising by 40.2% [1] Economic Challenges - Wage growth has lagged behind inflation, with average wage growth at only 1.8%, leading to a decline in household consumption willingness and potentially exacerbating a "stagflation" cycle [2] - Over 60% of households have reduced non-essential spending, indicating a significant impact on consumer behavior due to rising living costs [2] Policy Responses - Government measures, such as gasoline retail subsidies, have slightly eased inflationary pressures by lowering energy costs, while a reduction in public high school tuition has contributed to a 0.2 percentage point decrease in CPI [1][2] - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy despite inflation exceeding its 2% target, as weak wage growth and global economic slowdown present a dilemma for policymakers [2] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that Japan must balance controlling imported inflation, stimulating wage growth, and resolving trade disputes to avoid the looming threat of stagflation impacting economic recovery [3]

Core Viewpoint - The risk of stagflation in the U.S. economy is re-emerging, with inflation expected to rise and economic growth to slow down in the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation Drivers - Tariff impacts are not fully realized yet, as U.S. companies imported heavily in Q1 to avoid high tariffs, leading to high inventories. Once these inventories are depleted, companies will have to resume imports, likely passing tariff costs onto consumers [2]. - Immigration policies have tightened, leading to labor shortages in key sectors such as construction, agriculture, and elder care, which may push up wage levels and contribute to inflationary pressures [2]. - Moderate fiscal policy expansion is anticipated to contribute 0.4 to 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth over the next 12 months, increasing inflation risks [2]. Group 2: Economic Growth Projections - U.S. GDP growth is projected to be below trend levels, with estimates of 1.3% for this year and 1.2% for next year [3]. Group 3: Long-term Fiscal Concerns - The rapid passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which makes the temporary personal income tax cuts from 2017 permanent, is expected to increase the budget deficit by over $3 trillion over the next decade. This is unusual given the already low unemployment rate [5]. - The U.S. budget deficit is projected to remain above 6% of GDP in the coming years, with government debt reaching about 100% of GDP, and interest payments consuming 3% to 4% of GDP, which is unsustainable [5]. - Changes in the buyer structure of U.S. debt, with reduced purchases from foreign central banks and increased sensitivity from private investors, may lead to greater volatility in bond yields [5]. Group 4: Global Economic Outlook - Other regions are expected to experience slower growth but easing inflation, providing more room for central banks to cut rates. Asian exports are anticipated to decline further in the second half of the year, while Germany's fiscal and infrastructure spending may take time to support economic growth [6]. Group 5: Currency and Monetary Policy - The Nomura team holds a "soft dollar" stance due to stagflation pressures in the U.S., despite current interest rate differentials favoring the U.S. The dollar is considered significantly overvalued, and the persistent trade deficit may limit its performance [7]. - Concerns about the potential appointment of a "shadow Fed chair" by Trump could add uncertainty to monetary policy, as this individual might influence market expectations and complicate the current Fed chair's policy-making [8].

Group 1 - President Trump has publicly criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell multiple times, indicating dissatisfaction with his performance and suggesting the possibility of dismissal [1][3] - Trump's economic advisor Hassett claimed that the President has the authority to fire Powell, citing mismanagement of a renovation project that saw costs rise from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion [1] - Powell defended the renovation as necessary for safety and emphasized the constitutional protection of the Federal Reserve's independence [1] Group 2 - Trump has not planned to fire Powell but retains the option, criticizing Powell for not lowering interest rates [3] - Current economic data does not support a rate cut, and Trump's tariffs are causing price increases in consumer goods, which could lead to inflation exceeding 5% by 2026 [3] - The Federal Reserve prioritizes stabilizing the U.S. economy and the dollar over political pressures, as yielding to such pressures could undermine its credibility [5] Group 3 - Powell's resistance to political pressure is seen as a defense of professional rationality against short-sighted political demands [8] - Trump's motivation for requesting rate cuts is to reduce interest payments on the national debt of $36 trillion, which could create a false economic prosperity ahead of midterm elections [8] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for global economic stability, and any political interference could lead to significant financial repercussions [8]