因投资者对中美之间可能达成的贸易协议持乐观态度，金价从3350美元/盎司附近回落，可能会重新测 试3300美元/盎司关口。 现货黄金周二纽约时段早盘一度触及3349.20美元/盎司，创下日内高点;但随后金价大幅下挫，一度跌至 3319美元/盎司附近。 周三(6月11日)亚市早盘，现货黄金小幅上涨，现报3333美元/盎司附近。周二(6月10日)纽约交易时段， 现货黄金上演"高台跳水"行情，金价自高点大幅回落约30美元。 High Ridge Futures金属交易主任David Meger说，过去几天以来，黄金从近期高点回落，主要是因为市 场对中国与美国、英国与俄罗斯谈判抱持乐观的预期。 除了贸易谈判，投资者还密切关注即将于6月11日公布的美国5月消费者物价指数(CPI)数据。经济学家 预计，核心CPI同比涨幅将小幅升至2.9%，结束近几个月的降温趋势。高盛经济学家进一步预测，受特 朗普关税政策影响，核心CPI到年底可能攀升至3.5%。通胀压力的上升可能削弱市场对美联储降息的预 期，进而对金价构成压力。 目前，期货市场预计美联储将在9月降息，目前概率约为60%，但整体降息幅度有限。美元指数近期回 升至99.08 ...

行业 贵金属日评 宏观金融团队 日期 2025 年 6 月 11 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 虽然美联储降息预期有所降温，移民与海关执法局抓捕非法移民引发的洛杉 矶骚乱以及美国政府部门对抗为黄金带来支撑，伦敦黄金在 3300 美元/盎司附近 探底回升；6 月份以来投机资金大举做多白银，隔夜伦敦白银一度涨至 36.9 美元 /盎司而年内银价涨幅超越金价，但 10 日亚盘时段银价有所松动；我们判断纯粹 资金推动的银价飙升行情难以持续，建议投资者切勿重仓追多，稳健建议者可关 注白银动能衰减后的多黄金空白银套利策略。特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球 ...

Group 1 - Current US-China trade relations show significant signs of easing, leading to a reduction in safe-haven demand for gold, which is currently undergoing a phase of adjustment, although gold's safe-haven attributes will limit its downside potential [1] - Recent data indicates that the negative impact of tariff policies on the US economy is becoming evident, with the manufacturing PMI index remaining weak and the services PMI index experiencing its first contraction in a year [1][2] - The US manufacturing PMI for May is reported at 48.5, the lowest since November of the previous year, with new orders index at 47.6, highlighting the impact of tariff increases on demand [1] Group 2 - The ISM services PMI for May fell to 49.9, significantly below expectations, with the new orders index dropping to 46.4, marking the largest decline since June 2024 [2] - The US added 139,000 non-farm jobs in May, exceeding market expectations, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [2] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.9% year-on-year, reflecting tightening labor supply rather than strong demand [3] Group 3 - China's foreign exchange reserves rose to nearly $3.3 trillion in May, with gold reserves increasing slightly to 73.83 million ounces, marking the seventh consecutive month of gold accumulation [4] - Since November 2022, China's central bank has cumulatively added 10.16 million ounces of gold, although the pace of accumulation has slowed in recent months [4] - Global gold demand, including over-the-counter investments, saw a slight year-on-year increase of 1% in Q1 2025, with central banks remaining significant buyers despite a slight slowdown [4]

张尧浠：市场聚焦美CPI数据、金价震荡调整待上行走强 上交易日周二(6月10日)：国际黄金震荡十字收跌，仍运行在中轨及扩展线支撑上方，但也仍受到短期均线阻力，在打破阻力与支撑之前，短期走势还是 以震荡走盘对待。如重回10日均线上方，则跟进看涨上行，如跌至中轨线下方，则待触及扩展线支撑或60日均线支撑后，再度看涨反弹。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3325.40美元/盎司，先行走低，于10点半时段录得日内低点3301.75美元，之后筑底震荡并转回升，持续反弹，延续到美盘初 录得日内高点3348.78美元，随后又遇阻回落，并持稳于3320美元一线上方盘整，最终收于3322.33美元，日振幅47.03美元，收跌3.07美元，跌幅0.092%。 影响上，日内市场观望情绪浓厚。聚焦于中美贸易谈判进入第二天，并静待更多明确信号以确定下一阶段方向。同时，美国上周强劲的非农数据推动美元 反弹，对金价构成压制。然而，市场对于美联储未来降息预期仍存，叠加地缘局势升温，对黄金形成一定支撑。令其走势震荡。 展望今日周三(6月11日)：国际黄金开盘先行窄幅震荡偏弱运行，受到短期均线的压力，不过，近期走势运行在扩展线的强劲横向支撑上方，也 ...

智通财经APP获悉，越来越多华尔街交易员转向押注美联储今年仅仅降息一次而不是今年长期存在在两次 降息这一预期，主要逻辑在于美国经济增长韧性和通胀顽固的迹象不断出现。周三将公布5月美国消费者 物价数据(即5月CPI)，市场预测该数据将出现小幅回升，这可能强化美联储在评估关税影响之际继续观望 且暂不进一步宽松的立场。市场普遍预计美联储下周将按兵不动，而追踪政策路径的期货和期权定价显 示，交易员们正削减未来几个月累积的降息溢价。 掉期交易员们目前普遍预计到年底美联储将仅仅降息约0.45个百分点，甚至有一部分交易员押注2025 年"全年不降息"，这是自重返白宫的唐纳德·特朗普领导的美国政府自4月初推出高额对等关税以来，所计 入的最小降幅预期。当时宣布的关税政策一度令全球金融市场剧烈动荡，并在随后几周推动交易员押注年 底前最多降息 1 个百分点。 高盛经济学家团队认为美联储仍有望在关税相关的负面效应消退以及暂时性的通胀冲击显著缓和后实施货 币政策正常化降息。高盛预计关税的峰值通胀效应将在5月至8月的通胀报告中显现，并初步预测首次降息 将在12月进行。 来自另一华尔街大行巴克莱银行的经济学家们则预测美联储将在2025年仅 ...

今天下午开盘不久，A股三大指数和港股突然集体跳水，但随后又V了回来。 最后 沪指跌了0.44%，深成指了跌快1个点，创业板指跌了1个多点。 恒生差不多没跌，恒生科技 指数跌了不到1个点。 但神奇的是，日经225、纳指期货也在1点半左右莫名其妙大跳水。 第二个原因，量化砸盘 今天11点32分玉渊潭天放出了一条信息： 玉渊谭天：中美在伦敦进行经贸磋商，中方有诚意但同时也有原则 玉渊谭天发布文章称，美国商务 部长卢特尼克在与其他国家的贸易谈判过程中， 曾试图施压影响他国与中国的贸易往来 ，对此 中方坚决反对任何一方以牺牲中方利益为代价达成交易。文章称，卢特尼克的加入此次谈判意味着 中方有权继续就美方实施的出口管制这一问题提意见、要解释、要回应。无论美方来了谁，都应清 楚理解， 中方有诚意，同时也有原则 。 内行人都知道，玉渊潭天是中央广播电视总台的马甲，说一些大号不太方便说的话。 普通人看完整的这一段，可能会觉得还好，和之前官方对谈判的表态差不多。 但是量化抓取语料的大语言模型可不这么认为。 当量化的大模型读取到关键词"施压""反对""有原则"的时候……就直接得出了卖出的信号。而恰 巧，谈判前夕，资金的情绪都很紧张 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by improved tariff expectations and slightly better-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data, leading to reduced market risk aversion. However, analysts believe that gold remains a valuable asset class to watch in the second half of 2025 due to ongoing economic risks and central bank gold purchases [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have declined due to U.S. non-farm employment data exceeding expectations, which has lowered market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2]. - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, surpassing the expected 126,000, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [2]. - Consumer inflation expectations in the U.S. have decreased, with one-year inflation expectations dropping from 3.6% in April to 3.2% in May, indicating improved consumer confidence [2]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China reported an increase in gold reserves to 73.83 million ounces by the end of May, marking a continuous increase for seven months [5]. - Since April 2025, the pace of gold purchases by the People's Bank of China has slowed, which may weaken short-term support for gold prices [5]. - Analysts suggest that despite the slowdown in gold purchases, the ongoing high debt burden in the U.S. could lead to continued central bank gold accumulation globally [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices could range between $2,980 to $3,600 per ounce in the second half of 2025, with Shanghai gold prices expected to range from 720 to 860 yuan per gram [8]. - The relationship between U.S. CPI and gold prices indicates that when CPI exceeds 2.5%, the probability of gold price increases is significantly higher than decreases [8]. - The ongoing economic uncertainties and potential for further central bank gold purchases suggest that gold's long-term investment value remains intact [7][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights significant fluctuations in the US dollar index, which has recently fallen below the 99 mark, reaching a three-month low, prompting discussions about changes in the global currency landscape [1][2] - The decline in the dollar index is attributed to various factors, including disappointing US economic data, which has led to a decrease in confidence regarding US economic growth and subsequently weakened the dollar [2][3] - The market's expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have shifted, with a 78% probability of a rate cut in September, which has diminished the attractiveness of dollar assets and contributed to the dollar's decline [3][4] Group 2 - As the dollar index weakens, non-US currencies have experienced a rebound, with the euro and pound showing significant appreciation against the dollar, reflecting a reassessment of currency values by global investors [4][5] - The fluctuations in the dollar index and the rebound of non-US currencies have profound implications for global financial markets, affecting international trade, investment costs, and capital flows [5][6] - Future trends in the dollar index remain uncertain, influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction and various global economic factors, including geopolitical risks and trade tensions [5][6]

有色金属周报(氧化铝与电解铝及铝合金) 美联储降息预期时点延至9/12月 国内传统消费淡季特征渐显现 www.hongyuanqh.com 2025年06月10日 宏源期货 研究所 金属研究团队 王文虎（F03087656，Z0019472） 董晓妮（F0287405，Z0017234） 张蕾（F03086068，Z0019377） 氧化铝 山西多数矿和河南露天矿仍未复采，几内亚政府撤销部分企业采矿 权或要求部分运行企业停产，广西 计划开展非法采矿和涉重金属污染倒查十年专项行动，使国产和澳洲(几内亚)铝土矿价格环比持平(上涨)， 或使国内铝土矿6月生产(进口)量环比减少(减少)但难改供需预期偏松； 山东创源三期和广西华晟二期100与200万吨氧化铝产能已建成并部分投产，山西晋中100万吨氧化铝产 能节能增效改造项目2月底开工且建设工期14个月，广西防城港25年3月开始建设2条120万吨氧化铝产能且 总工期为8个月，或使中国氧化铝6月生产量环比增加，中国氧化铝日度平均完全生产成本为2880元/吨左 右； 南山铝业旗下印尼宾坦氧化铝三期项目100万吨产能5月上旬开启 试生产且预计25年实现满产（届时氧 化铝产能达 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, with recommendations to consider gold as part of equity asset allocation and to avoid frequent trading [1] - Gold is supported by ongoing economic and policy uncertainties, with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, increased purchases by central banks, and global uncertainties contributing to its strong performance [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, highlighting the asset's continued appeal as a safe haven amid rising concerns over U.S. debt ceiling issues [1] Group 2 - Recent data from the New York Fed indicates a decrease in consumer inflation expectations, with a one-year inflation expectation dropping to 3.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting improved consumer confidence [2] - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warns that if the debt ceiling remains unchanged, the government's borrowing capacity may be exhausted between mid-August and the end of September 2025, raising market concerns about the U.S. repayment ability [3] Group 3 - Tianhong Shanghai Gold announced an upgrade to its benchmark on June 3, increasing the gold investment proportion to nearly 100%, allowing for more precise tracking of gold price movements, with a potential 6% additional return over three years based on backtesting [4] - The new benchmark consists of 95% spot gold and 5% deferred gold contracts, compared to the old benchmark which included a portion linked to bank deposit rates, indicating a strategic shift towards a more gold-centric investment approach [4]