Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market for non-ferrous metals continues to rise, with significant gains in silver and gold stocks [1][2] - Silver and gold prices are strengthening, with spot gold prices surpassing $3,500 per ounce, marking a historical high and a year-to-date increase of over 33% [2][3] - Analysts indicate that macroeconomic and geopolitical factors are favoring precious metals, including India's sale of U.S. government bonds and increased gold reserves, as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions [3] Group 2 - Specific stock performances include: - Baiyin Nonferrous (601212) up 10.08% with a market cap of 31.5 billion and a year-to-date increase of 53.24% - Western Gold (601069) up 10.00% with a market cap of 22 billion and a year-to-date increase of 111.04% - Zhuhai Group (600961) up 8.82% with a market cap of 16.7 billion and a year-to-date increase of 97.46% - Hunan Silver (002716) up 7.59% with a market cap of 18.4 billion and a year-to-date increase of 92.33% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot gold reached a historic high of $3504.5 per ounce, driven by concerns over the independence and stability of the Federal Reserve, alongside expectations of interest rate cuts, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Factors - The recent court case regarding the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook is seen as a historic test of the Fed's independence, with potential political pressures undermining policy stability, which could negatively impact the attractiveness of the dollar and U.S. Treasuries, indirectly benefiting gold [2]. - Market analysts note that the rise in gold prices reflects concerns over institutional stability, with factors such as rising inflation, weak consumer sentiment, and expectations of interest rate cuts supporting the demand for gold [2]. - Recent U.S. economic data, including a 0.2% month-over-month increase in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for July, aligns with expectations and keeps inflation above the Fed's 2% target, complicating the Fed's policy decisions [2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly's call for immediate interest rate cuts to mitigate labor market risks has reinforced market expectations for a rate cut in September, with over 80% probability according to CME FedWatch tools [3]. - Analysts are closely monitoring the upcoming U.S. employment report, with expectations of an increase of approximately 78,000 non-farm jobs in August, which could further bolster demand for gold if the data falls short of expectations [4]. - The interplay between political and economic risks, particularly regarding the ongoing tensions between Trump and the Federal Reserve, suggests that market volatility may increase, with gold continuing to attract safe-haven investments but potentially experiencing more dramatic price movements [4].

现货黄金价格突破3500美元/盎司，创下历史新高。年初至今，金价累计涨幅超33%。 光大期货研究所有色金属研究总监展大鹏认为，近期伦敦现货金银再次发力走高主要由多重因素共振驱 动，核心逻辑仍围绕避险需求与美联储货币政策预期展开。 对于本轮贵金属涨势，国信期货认为，短期仍有望维持偏强格局。美联储降息预期持续发酵叠加地缘风险 升温，共同提振贵金属避险属性。技术面上，COMEX黄金强势突破3500美元/盎司关键阻力，下一目标 或看向3550美元 /盎司 附近，下方支撑参考3450美元 /盎司 左右；COMEX白银在创历史新高后上行空 间进一步打开，下一关键阻力看向42美元附近水平，需警惕短期技术性回调风险。投资者需重点关注即 将公布的8月非农就业数据及中旬美联储议息会议政策信号，预计数据表现及联储态度将对贵金属方向选 择产生重要指引。 综合自：e公司 责编：叶舒筠 校对： 彭其华 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体 法律责任的权利。 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes END 点击关键字可查看 潜望系列深度 ...

美国股市周一因劳动节休市，市场焦点转向美联储理事人选与利率政策动向。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示， 数名美联储主席候选人同时也被考虑填补央行理事会的两个空缺席位。他指出，自己已与川普总统详细讨论过候 选人的条件与资格，并强调川普对美联储「怀有极大敬意」。至于市场对川普试图罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克的反 应，贝森特认为债市与汇市皆维持平静。 根据CME「美联储观察」工具，9月会议中降息25个基点的机率达89.6%，维持利率不变的机率为10.4%。展望10 月，市场对降息25与50个基点的预期几乎平分秋色，分别为47.3%与47.9%。 库克理事的留任概率从罢免传闻时的35%回升至62% 白宫特别强调不寻求颠覆现行货币政策框架 劳动节休市背后的政策暗流 9月2日美国劳动节休市期间，CME美联储观察工具显示89.6%的降息预期创年内新高。这种市场共识的形成源于 三重压力： 经济数据疲软：8月ISM制造业PMI连续三个月萎缩，核心PCE物价指数增速放缓至2.8% 全球央行转向：欧央行6月启动降息后，新兴市场货币宽松政策持续加码 政治干预隐忧：特朗普政府被曝考虑替换3名美联储理事，引发政策独立性争议 贝森特声明中的权力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows signs of stability and gradual improvement in performance, with a focus on structural opportunities amid a backdrop of changing monetary policy expectations [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The three major stock indices experienced narrow fluctuations, with the CSI A500 index slightly rising [1] - As of 9:45 AM, the A500 ETF from Southern Asset Management increased by 0.42%, with notable gains in stocks such as Midea Group (up 2.63%), Kweichow Moutai (up 1.49%), and China Merchants Bank (up 1.00%) [1] Group 2: Financial Results - By August 31, 5,432 listed companies had disclosed their semi-annual reports for 2025, revealing total operating revenue of 35.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.16% [1] - The net profit for the first half of 2025 reached 3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.54%, with an acceleration of 4.76 percentage points compared to the previous year's full-year growth [1] - Nearly 60% of companies reported positive revenue growth, and over 75% achieved profitability, with 2,475 companies showing positive net profit growth and 1,943 companies experiencing both revenue and net profit growth [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The overall industrial structure of listed companies in China continues to optimize, with a solid foundation for internal growth and a clearer focus on technological development [1] - Analysts anticipate that the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may lead to an improvement in risk appetite, suggesting a shift towards a fundamentally driven market in the medium term [1] - The A-share market is expected to maintain a rotational state of hotspots, with recommendations to focus on structural allocation opportunities [1]

Group 1 - The spot gold price has surpassed $3500 per ounce, reaching a new historical high of $3501.030, with a daily increase of 0.74% [1] - The London gold price also showed significant movement, with a peak of $3501.880 during the trading session [2] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have increased, with Zhou Shengsheng priced at ¥1041 per gram, up by ¥16, and Lao Miao gold at ¥1034, up by ¥11 [3] Group 2 - On September 1, the international gold price rose significantly, with December futures reaching a peak of $3550 per ounce, marking a historical high [4] - The weakening US dollar, which hit a five-week low, has contributed to the rise in international gold prices, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [5] - The US job market's weakening is a factor in the rising expectations for a Fed rate cut, with the upcoming non-farm payroll data being a key indicator for economic health [7]

Group 1 - Precious metals experienced a strong rally on the first trading day of September, with gold prices nearing $3,500 and silver breaking the $40 mark, reaching $40.754 [1][3] - The rise in silver prices is attributed to expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and a surge in photovoltaic demand, with silver's industrial demand projected to account for 59% of global consumption in 2024 [3][4] - Silver's price is expected to target the 2011 high of $49.8 after breaking the $40 resistance level, indicating it is still in a phase of catching up [1][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cut has contributed to the bullish trend in precious metals, with an 87.2% probability of a 25 basis point cut by September 17 [3] - The industrial demand for silver, particularly from the photovoltaic sector, is expected to remain strong, with approximately 17% of total silver demand coming from solar energy applications [3][4] - Historical trends suggest that during precious metal bull markets, silver often experiences accelerated gains towards the end, indicating potential future price movements [4][5]

Group 1 - The A-share market for non-ferrous metals continues to rise, with significant gains in stocks such as Baiyin Nonferrous, Western Gold, and Zhuhai Group [1] - Gold and silver prices are on the rise, with spot gold prices surpassing $3,500 per ounce, marking a historical high and a year-to-date increase of over 33% [1] - Analysts attribute the positive momentum in precious metals to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, including India's active selling of U.S. government bonds and increasing gold reserves, as well as the lack of progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks [1] Group 2 - Specific stock performance includes Baiyin Nonferrous up 10.08% with a market cap of 31.5 billion, Western Gold up 10% with a market cap of 22 billion, and Zhuhai Group up 8.82% with a market cap of 16.7 billion [2] - Other notable performers include Hunan Baiyin up 7.59%, Ding Sheng New Materials up 6.68%, and Tianshan Aluminum up 5.01% [2] - The MACD golden cross signal formation indicates a strong upward trend for these stocks [2]

降息预期升温给予金价支撑，9月1日，国际金价高开高走，盘中冲上3557.1美元/盎司，再次刷新历史 高位。 国内期货市场上，沪金主力合约跟随大涨，盘中突破802元/克，一日涨超16元/克。消费端，周大福、 老凤祥今日零售金饰报价分别为1027元/克、1025元/克，较上周五分别上调12元~14元/克。社交平台 上，"看中的60克金镯一夜之间贵了近1000元"社交网络上一位消费者发布动态称。 同样刷新历史高点的还有白银期货价格，9月1日上午，COMEX白银盘中最高触及41.64美元/盎司，年 内累计涨幅41%，跑赢黄金34%的同期涨幅。 黄金、白银的9月"开门红"究竟是一场短暂的情绪狂欢，还是新一轮牛市的序幕？ 谁在点火？ 对于这轮黄金价格大涨，美国银行分析师指出，除了美联储降息预期强化推高了国际金价，近期美联储 理事被免职风波削弱市场对美元资产信心，避险资金涌入对金价形成支撑。 "具体看来，近日在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上，鲍威尔发言明显转鸽，讲话市场对于9月降息预期迅速 升高。" 永赢黄金股ETF基金经理刘庭宇对第一财经分析称，本次鲍威尔的发言被视为为9月重启降息打 开大门，黄金价格在消化了前期美国经济数据反 ...

吴坤金 有色金属日报 2025-9-2 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 锌 周一沪锌指数收涨 0.13%至 22168 元/吨，单边交易总持仓 22.78 万手。截至周一下午 15：00，伦锌 3S 较前日同期涨 33.5 至 2830 美元/吨，总持仓 19.15 万手。SMM0#锌锭均价 22100 元/吨，上海基 差-35 元/吨，天津基差-85 元/吨，广东基差-75 元/吨 ...