1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current fundamental pattern of crude oil is dominated by oversupply, leading to a downward shift in the oil - price center, despite geopolitical conflicts causing occasional price spikes [2]. - Precious metals are supported by the Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks, but short - term adjustments are inevitable due to excessive gains driven by funds [3]. - For various metals, non - ferrous metals and precious metals generally show certain trends, with each metal having its own supply - demand and price characteristics. For example, copper prices are affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and aluminum shows an oscillatingly strong trend [4][5]. - For energy and chemical products, most products face supply - demand imbalances, with some affected by geopolitical factors and some by seasonal and policy factors. For example, fuel oil is affected by geopolitical tensions and high - inventory pressure [22]. - Agricultural products' prices are influenced by factors such as weather, supply - demand relationships, and policies. For example, soybean and bean - related products are affected by South American weather and export situations [36]. - In the financial market, the stock index shows an oscillatingly strong trend, and the bond market has different trends for different - term bonds [48][49]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy Crude Oil - Geopolitical tensions increase concerns about supply disruptions, but the market is still dominated by oversupply. EIA predicts a daily increase of over 2 million barrels in global inventories, and the oil - price center is expected to shift downward [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical factors provide short - term support, but the supply - surplus situation remains unchanged. High - sulfur fuel oil demand may increase, but Singapore's high inventory is a significant pressure. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to recover, and demand remains weak [22]. Asphalt - Commercial inventory de - stocking is weak, and the supply of heavy raw materials is unstable due to the escalating situation between the US and Venezuela, providing bottom - end support for prices [23]. Metals Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals turned upward. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support their strength, but short - term adjustments are needed due to excessive gains. After volatility decreases, a long - position strategy can be considered [3]. Copper - Overnight, copper prices rebounded, with large short - term price fluctuations near the New Year. The market focuses on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations in 2026. The previous options strategy should be continued, and attention should be paid to refinery production schedules and social inventory changes [4]. Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated within a narrow range. After a significant correction, the panic sentiment eased. The fundamental driving force of the aluminum market is insufficient, and the oscillatingly strong trend remains unchanged. Long positions can be held based on the 40 - day moving average [5]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 21,900 yuan. Scrap aluminum is still in short supply, and the cost in some areas may increase due to tax adjustments. The seasonal spread between casting aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum is weaker than in previous years, maintaining around 1,000 yuan [6]. Alumina - Alumina is in a state of significant oversupply, and the cost has room to decline as the bauxite price falls. The short - term decline in the spot price is slowing down, but medium - term stabilization requires large - scale production cuts [7]. Zinc - The supply - side pressure of zinc is weakening, and the overall upward trend remains unchanged. The consumption outlook in January is moderately optimistic, but the real - estate sector restricts the upside of zinc prices. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [8]. Lead - The maintenance of primary lead smelters continues, and the low social inventory supports the price, but battery enterprises' inventory checks at the end of the year suppress demand. Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate at the bottom, with a price range of 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9]. Nickel & Stainless Steel - Nickel prices rose again, but the spot trading was cold. The Indonesian Nickel Ore Association reduced the ore quota and will modify the mineral benchmark price formula in early 2026. Stainless - steel costs increased due to the rising nickel - iron price, and social inventory decreased. Short - term policy sentiment dominates, and it is advisable to wait and see [10]. Tin - Shanghai tin rebounded with a reduction in positions. Attention should be paid to the possible mining conference around the New Year. It is recommended to hold a 350,000 - yuan call - selling option and observe the adjustment range [11]. Iron Ore - The supply pressure of iron ore is still large, but with the sign of iron - water production bottoming out and the expectation of steel - mill winter - storage replenishment, the short - term price is supported. However, the positive factors have been reflected in the recent price increase, and the future trend is expected to be oscillatory [16]. Coke - The price oscillated upward during the day. The fourth round of price cuts for coke was fully implemented, and the coking profit was average. The inventory increased slightly, and the downstream demand was still resilient but with a strong willingness to suppress prices. The price faces fundamental pressure after correcting the premium, and market sentiment is affected by policy expectations [17]. Coking Coal - The price oscillated upward during the day. The Mongolian coal customs - clearance volume decreased seasonally, and some domestic coal mines reduced or stopped production. The total coking - coal inventory increased slightly. Similar to coke, it faces fundamental pressure after correcting the discount, and market sentiment is affected by policy expectations [18]. Manganese - The price oscillated strongly during the day. The manganese ore spot price increased. There are structural problems in the port inventory, and the demand for semi - carbonate ore may increase. The iron - water production decreased seasonally. It is recommended to try long positions when the price is low [19]. Silicon Iron - The price oscillated strongly during the day. There are expectations of coal - supply guarantee, which may reduce the power cost and lanthanum - carbon price. The iron - water production rebounded, and the overall demand is still resilient. The supply decreased significantly. It is recommended to try long positions when the price is low [20]. Chemicals Polycrystalline Silicon - The spot price of polycrystalline silicon increased slightly. The downstream silicon - wafer production in December was lower than expected, so the production schedule in January may be slightly increased. The battery - cell production is expected to continue to decline in January. The factory inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [13]. Industrial Silicon - The weekly operating rate in the northwest main - production area fluctuated slightly. The demand side is still under pressure, and the demand for polycrystalline silicon may weaken again. The upward momentum of the future price depends on the implementation of production - reduction expectations, and the trend may change from strong oscillation to consolidation [14]. Urea - The urea price oscillated strongly. The supply tightened temporarily, and the production - enterprise inventory decreased significantly. The agricultural procurement slowed down, and the industrial demand was mainly for rigid needs. The supply may increase in the short term, and the price may decline slightly [24]. Methanol - The methanol main - contract price increased with an increase in positions. The import volume is expected to decrease gradually, and the coastal MTO device is approaching the restart time. The medium - term port inventory may enter a de - stocking cycle. The short - term port inventory is accumulating. The medium - term price is expected to be strong [25]. Pure Benzene - The pure - benzene price oscillated at night. The port inventory continued to increase, higher than the same period in previous years. There are expectations of device maintenance and downstream production increase in the future, but the supply may also increase. The short - term price oscillates at the bottom, and the medium - term can consider long - short spreads [26]. Styrene - The cost side does not provide obvious positive driving force for styrene. The supply and demand are expected to increase simultaneously, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, which is difficult to boost the price [27]. Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene - The cost pressure on downstream propylene has been slightly relieved, but the demand recovery is limited. The supply of polyethylene is expected to increase, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high. The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase slightly, and the short - term demand is still weak [28]. PVC & Caustic Soda - PVC shows an oscillatingly strong trend. The supply may increase in the short term, and the demand is weak. The inventory pressure is large, and it is expected to oscillate within a range. Caustic soda runs strongly, but the supply pressure is large, and the downstream demand growth is limited, so the upward space is restricted [29]. PX & PTA - The PX price rose due to strong expectations but started to oscillate after a decline. The short - term supply may increase, and the downstream demand may decline. PTA is expected to reduce inventory at a low load, and the processing margin has slightly recovered. The main driving force is the raw material PX [30]. Ethylene Glycol - The weekly production of ethylene glycol decreased, and the port inventory increased. The downstream polyester is expected to reduce production around the Spring Festival, and the fundamental situation is weakening. However, the reduction in arrival volume and device load eases the inventory - accumulation pressure. The price oscillates at a low level. The long - term supply pressure is still large [31]. Short - Fiber & Bottle Chips - Short - fiber enterprises' inventory is at a low level, but it is the off - season for demand. The long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively good. Bottle - chip demand has weakened, and the inventory has decreased. The long - term problem of over - capacity exists, and the price is mainly driven by cost [32]. Building Materials Glass - Glass prices are running strongly due to environmental - protection pressure and production - capacity reduction. The industry inventory is increasing slightly, and the demand is insufficient. The industry will continue to reduce production capacity, and a new balance is expected to be achieved [33]. Rubber 20 - Number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber - Favorable policies have been introduced, and the international crude - oil price has risen slightly. The global natural - rubber supply is entering the production - reduction period. The demand is average, the natural - rubber inventory is increasing, and the synthetic - rubber inventory is decreasing. The cost support is strengthening. Before the New Year's Day holiday, RU&NR are strong, and BR should be observed [34]. Fertilizers Soda Ash - The soda - ash price is strong due to the call for anti - involution and significant inventory reduction. The production may increase in the future, and the supply pressure is large. The demand for heavy soda ash has slightly declined. The short - term inventory reduction should be observed for sustainability, and the long - term faces oversupply pressure [35]. Agricultural Products Soybean & Bean Meal - This week's soybean crushing volume is expected to decline, and the bean - meal output will decrease. The downstream demand is light, and the inventory may remain high. The South American weather has improved, and the trading logic focuses on US soybean exports and South American production expectations. The bean - meal price will follow the US soybean price and oscillate at the bottom [36]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Near the holiday, the domestic soybean - oil and palm - oil prices rebounded. The South American new - season soybeans are expected to have a good harvest, and the domestic soybean inventory is high. The palm - oil high - inventory pressure in Malaysia needs to be digested. The short - term macro - atmosphere is optimistic [37]. Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed inventory is at a low level, and the supply - side expectation supports the near - month contracts. The EU's rapeseed supply - demand balance has been slightly adjusted. The market focuses on Australian rapeseed crushing and policies. The short - term strategy is to wait and see [38]. Soybean No.1 - The domestic soybean main - contract price is strong. The auction price provides support, and the spot - purchase price has increased. The South American new - season soybeans are expected to have a good harvest. Short - term attention should be paid to domestic policies and the spot market [39]. Corn - The northeast and north - port corn prices are strong. The low - temperature weather makes farmers reluctant to sell, and the supply of ground - stored corn is tight. The resumption of low - price old - wheat auctions may suppress the corn price. The Brazilian first - crop corn planting rate is high. The short - term Dalian corn futures will oscillate [40]. Live Pigs - The live - pig 03 - contract price continued to rise, and the spot price increased rapidly due to reduced end - of - month sales and tight large - pig supply. There is still an expectation of second - fattening replenishment in the short term, but the long - term supply pressure is large, and it is recommended to short after the 03 - contract price rebounds [41]. Eggs - The egg - futures price is weakly adjusted. The spot price is in a low - level oscillation range. The 2 - month contract is expected to be weak, and the 4 - and 5 - month contracts in the first half of next year may be strong. The high - premium contracts in the second half of next year may have a complex trading rhythm [42]. Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton prices rose yesterday, and the spot trading was average. Although the new - cotton production has increased significantly this year, the commercial inventory is lower than the same period last year, and the sales progress is fast, providing support for the price. The demand is stable in the off - season. The industry can consider hedging opportunities [43]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar oscillated. The rainfall in Brazil in December increased, and the previous drought was slightly alleviated. The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the upward pressure on US sugar remains. The domestic market focuses on the new - season production. The Guangxi production progress is slow, but there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season, and the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be limited [44]. Apples - The apple - futures price oscillates. The cold - storage trading is light, and the demand has entered the off - season. The market's bearish sentiment has increased, and a bearish strategy is recommended [45]. Wood - The wood - futures price is at a low level. The external - market quotation has decreased, and the domestic spot price is weak. The demand is in the off - season, and the port inventory is decreasing. The low inventory provides some support, and it is advisable to wait and see [46]. Pulp - Pulp prices rose yesterday. The short - term upward space is limited due to weak downstream demand. The port inventory has been decreasing for five consecutive weeks. The new - year contract, especially the 01 contract, may face less warehouse - receipt pressure. The paper - mill procurement is mainly for rigid needs, and the market game is intense. It is advisable to wait and see [47]. Financial Products Stock Index - Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index remained flat with ten consecutive positive days. Most stock - index futures contracts rose, and the basis of all contracts was at a discount. The external - market performance was divided. After precious metals shifted from a one - way upward trend to a high - level volatile pattern, the performance of the stock index and other risk assets needs to be observed. The A - share market is expected to be oscillatingly strong, and attention can be paid to the rotation of low - level sectors [48]. Treasury Bonds - On December 30, 2025, treasury - bond futures showed mixed results. The 30 - year bond rose, and the 10 - and 5 - year bonds fell slightly. The ultra - long - term bonds showed an oversold - recovery trend, and the short - term contracts were relatively weak. In the short term, the allocation of ultra - long - term bonds may increase, and it is advisable to participate in the butterfly - spread strategy to make the yield - curve convex [49].

【要闻速递】 据CME"美联储观察"，市场对美联储未来降息预期趋于保守：明年1月降息25基点的概率仅14.9%，维 持利率不变概率高达85.1%；到3月累计降息25基点的概率为45.2%，维持不变48.3%，累计降息50基点 仅6.5%。 摘要今日周三(12月31日)亚盘时段，现货黄金交投于4344美元/盎司附近，金价周二反弹，势将创下自 1979年以来最大年度涨幅，受益于美联储降息预期、持续的地缘政治紧张、各国央行强劲的购金需求， 以及大量资金流入黄金ETF。 今日周三(12月31日)亚盘时段，现货黄金交投于4344美元/盎司附近，金价周二反弹，势将创下自1979年 以来最大年度涨幅，受益于美联储降息预期、持续的地缘政治紧张、各国央行强劲的购金需求，以及大 量资金流入黄金ETF。 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 昨日黄金走势与10月21日高度相似：价格在暴跌后出现技术性修正，晚间于4403一线承压回落。今日金 价徘徊于5-10日均线附近，尾盘最低下探近70美元。 日线图上，大阴之后收出带长上影的小阳孕线，整体仍处于修正下跌格局，与4380前一轮下跌形成对 称，预示后市震荡后仍将进一步下探至下方支撑区域。 多周期压 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of multiple sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market conditions, supply - demand dynamics, and price trends of various commodities, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these analyses [2][3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - **Nickel**: Indonesia's plan to cut nickel production in 2026 has boosted market sentiment, but the actual implementation remains uncertain. The short - term reality is weak, and the medium - term fundamentals are loose. The price is expected to be strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited, with the main contract reference range of 126,000 - 135,000 [2]. - **Methanol**: Methanex's production interruption in Chile has led to a price increase. The port is facing inventory accumulation in December, but the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to shift to destocking in the first quarter of the next year. The price in the inland area is expected to fluctuate slightly [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is supported by the steel mill's restocking expectation, but the supply is in the off - season. It is expected to be volatile and slightly strong, with the reference range of 770 - 840 [3]. - **Corn**: The upward momentum is insufficient, and the price has fallen after reaching a high. The short - term supply pressure exists, and the price is expected to be mainly short - term, with attention paid to the changes in farmers' selling mentality and policy releases [4]. 3.2 Financial Derivatives 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market shows a structural theme market, with the index oscillating at a high level. The short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the index has rebounded. It is recommended to hold a bull spread combination and sell a small amount of near - month out - of - the - money call options for hedging [5][7]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market sentiment has recovered, but it is still fragile. It is expected to be in a volatile situation in the short term. After the New Year, attention should be paid to the capital flow, central bank's bond - buying, and other factors [8][10]. 3.3 Precious Metals - The Fed's December meeting minutes have a neutral impact. The precious metals market shows a differentiated trend. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the medium - to - long - term, investors can consider bargain - hunting after the New Year [11][13]. 3.4 Shipping (Container Shipping Index - Europe Line) - The futures contract is in a consolidation phase, lacking obvious driving forces. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern in the short term [15]. 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price has corrected, and the spot discount has narrowed. The medium - to - long - term fundamentals are good, but the short - term price is overestimated. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices [16][19]. - **Alumina**: Policy incentives are difficult to reverse the short - term supply - demand situation. The price is expected to fluctuate widely around the cash cost line. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short at high prices in the medium term [19][21]. - **Aluminum**: The market is dominated by the game between strong macro expectations and weak fundamentals. It is expected to be in a high - level wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices [22][24]. - **Zinc**: The TC decline supports the price. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to import profitability, TC inflection points, and refined zinc inventory changes [27][30]. - **Tin**: The market sentiment has subsided, and the price has fallen sharply. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the macro situation and supply - side recovery [30][35]. - **Nickel**: Driven by news and technical factors, the price has broken through the previous high. The short - term supply is still sufficient, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited [35][37]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality. It is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation, with attention paid to nickel ore news and steel mill production cuts [38][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The end - of - year news has increased, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see [42][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is in a high - level oscillation. In January, there is pressure to cut production due to weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see [45][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is in a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts [47][49]. 3.6 Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel price is in a volatile trend. The production cut and inventory reduction support the price, but the weak demand limits the upward space. It is recommended to wait and see [49][51]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is supported by the steel mill's restocking expectation, but the supply is facing the off - season. It is expected to be volatile and slightly strong, with a short - term long - position attempt [52][53]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price fluctuates, and the futures price has peaked and declined. It is recommended to short at high prices and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke arbitrage [55][59]. - **Coke**: The fourth round of price cuts has been launched. The supply - demand situation has weakened. It is recommended to short at high prices and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke arbitrage [60][64]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Production cuts have alleviated the supply - demand contradiction. The price is expected to be in a range - bound oscillation [65][68]. - **Silicomanganese**: The manganese ore supports the price, but the supply - demand contradiction still exists. The price is expected to be volatile, with interval operations recommended [69][71]. 3.7 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The South American soybean harvest expectation suppresses the market. The domestic spot is loose. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and cautious operation is recommended [72][74]. - **Pig**: The demand supports the market. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short term, and the futures price is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation [75][76]. - **Corn**: The upward momentum is insufficient, and the price has fallen after reaching a high. The short - term supply pressure exists, and the price is expected to be mainly short - term [77][79]. - **Sugar**: The raw sugar price is in a low - level oscillation. The domestic supply pressure restricts the price. It is recommended to short on rebounds [80][82]. - **Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures are in a bottom - level oscillation. The domestic price has reached a new high for the year. The short - term price may correct, and the medium - to - long - term trend is relatively optimistic [83][85]. - **Egg**: The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [86][87]. - **Edible Oils**: The palm oil has a short - term upward trend, but the overall oils should not be over - bullish. Different oils have different price trends and risks [88][90]. - **Jujube**: The cost supports the price, but the consumption improvement is limited. Attention should be paid to the delivery situation of the 01 contract and the Spring Festival stocking [91][92]. - **Apple**: The demand is weak, and the price is declining. The short - term market is in a game between scarce delivery fruits and high - inventory ordinary fruits [93]. 3.8 Energy Chemicals - **PX**: The valuation has increased significantly, and the downstream negative feedback is prominent. The short - term price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and go long at low prices in the medium term [94][95]. - **PTA**: The processing fee has recovered, and the downstream negative feedback is obvious. The short - term price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and go long at low prices in the medium term [96][97]. - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the price follows the raw materials. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA and short the processing fee at high prices [98]. - **Bottle Chip**: The cost is strong, and the supply expectation increases. The short - term processing fee will be compressed. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA and short the processing fee at high prices [99][101]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overseas supply is expected to shrink, but the near - month inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread on EG5 - 9 at high prices [102]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price driving force is limited. The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [103][104]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the rebound space is limited. It is recommended to short above 6800 and short the processing fee at high prices [105][106]. - **LLDPE**: The basis remains stable, and the transaction is neutral. It is recommended to go long on the 2605 contract in the short term [107]. - **PP**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price fluctuates slightly. Attention should be paid to the PDH profit expansion [107]. - **Methanol**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the price has strengthened. It is recommended to pay attention to the MTO05 spread contraction [108][109]. - **Caustic Soda**: The futures price has rebounded strongly, and the现货 price has declined steadily. The price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [109][110]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure has increased marginally, and the high - price transaction is light. The price is expected to weaken after a rebound [111][112]. - **Soda Ash**: The production rate has declined, and the inventory has decreased. It is recommended to wait and see [113][114]. - **Glass**: Supported by production line cold - repair and improved sales rate, the price is expected to be in a bottom - level oscillation and strengthen [113][115]. - **Natural Rubber**: The market sentiment has subsided, and it is recommended to hold short positions [117]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The fundamental support is limited, and the price follows the commodity trend. It is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation between 11,200 - 12,000 [118][119].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. After the New Year's Day, it is expected that the allocation funds for the new year will gradually enter the market. The medium - and long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [2][4]. - Regarding treasury bonds, the short - term bond market is expected to remain volatile in the context of weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances. It is suitable for quick - in and quick - out operations in the absence of a trend - following market [6]. - For precious metals, they are currently in an accelerated upward phase. There may be a short - term significant correction in January next year, but this does not mean the end of the upward cycle. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude [7]. - In the non - ferrous metal sector, copper, aluminum prices have certain supports, while zinc, lead industries have weak fundamentals, and nickel, tin prices are expected to be volatile. For new energy - related metals, lithium carbonate and alumina are recommended to be observed, and stainless steel can be considered to go long on dips [9][11][13][15][16][17][19][22][23]. - In the black building materials sector, steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation, and iron ore prices are likely to operate within an oscillation range [28][30]. - For energy and chemical products, rubber is recommended to be observed, oil prices should be traded in a range - bound manner, and for other chemicals, different strategies such as waiting and seeing, going long on dips, or going short on rallies are recommended according to different fundamentals [44][49][52]. - In the agricultural products sector, for livestock products, short - term long positions can be considered for pigs, and short positions can be considered for eggs after rallies. For grains and oils, different strategies are recommended according to different production and demand situations [74][75][77]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market News**: Policies such as housing sales VAT, new energy vehicle subsidies, consumer electronics subsidies, and AI education policies have been introduced [2]. - **Strategy View**: The long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: The central rural work conference was held, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 2532 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term bond market is expected to remain volatile [6]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: Gold and silver prices rose, and the market expected the Fed to cut interest rates aggressively next year [7]. - **Strategy View**: There may be a short - term correction, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metal Category Copper - **Market News**: LME copper prices rose, and the inventory decreased. The domestic spot discount narrowed [9]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is tight, and the price support is strong, but beware of price fluctuations during the New Year's Day [10]. Aluminum - **Market News**: Aluminum prices rose, and the inventory increased slightly [11]. - **Strategy View**: The downstream demand is weak, but the price support is strong due to low inventory and strong copper prices [12]. Zinc - **Market News**: Zinc prices rose slightly, and the inventory decreased [13]. - **Strategy View**: The fundamentals are weak, and there may be a price impact after the long - position exit [14]. Lead - **Market News**: Lead prices rose slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly [15]. - **Strategy View**: The supply and demand are both weak, but the price is supported by low inventory and reduced supply at the regenerative end [15]. Nickel - **Market News**: Nickel prices rose significantly, and the cost was stable [16]. - **Strategy View**: The oversupply pressure is large, but the short - term bottom may have appeared. It is recommended to wait and see [16]. Tin - **Market News**: Tin prices fell, the supply was stable at a high level, and the demand was in the off - season [17]. - **Strategy View**: The price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market News**: The spot price of lithium carbonate fell, and the futures price rose [19]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term is dominated by capital games. It is recommended to wait and see or try to buy options with a light position [19]. Alumina - **Market News**: Alumina prices rose slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly [20]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is expected to shrink, but actual production cuts are needed. It is recommended to wait and see or go short on rallies [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: Stainless steel prices rose, and the inventory decreased [23]. - **Strategy View**: The policy is favorable, and it is recommended to go long on dips [23]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: Cast aluminum alloy prices fell, and the inventory decreased [24]. - **Strategy View**: The price is expected to be strongly volatile [25][26]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market News**: Rebar prices rose slightly, and hot - rolled coil prices fell slightly [28]. - **Strategy View**: Steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation [29]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: Iron ore prices fell slightly, and the inventory increased [30]. - **Strategy View**: The price is expected to operate within an oscillation range [32]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market News**: Glass prices rose, and the inventory increased slightly [33]. - **Strategy View**: The market is expected to rise further, and the upside space is seen at 1100 - 1150 yuan/ton [33]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market News**: Soda ash prices rose, and the inventory decreased [34]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market rebound is limited [34]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose [35]. - **Strategy View**: The market is led by the black sector, and attention should be paid to cost and supply factors [38]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market News**: Industrial silicon prices rose, and the inventory decreased [39]. - **Strategy View**: The price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances in the northwest [40]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market News**: Polysilicon prices rose, and the inventory decreased [41]. - **Strategy View**: The price is expected to be weakly volatile under regulatory influence, and attention should be paid to spot transactions [42]. 3.4 Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market News**: Rubber prices oscillated, and the tire start - up rate was slightly worse [44][46]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see, and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [48]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: Crude oil prices rose slightly, and the inventory increased [49]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see and test the OPEC's export price - support willingness [50]. Methanol - **Market News**: Methanol prices rose, and the inventory decreased [51]. - **Strategy View**: The fundamentals have certain pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [52]. Urea - **Market News**: Urea prices rose, and the inventory decreased [53][54]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is expected to decrease seasonally, and it is recommended to go long on dips [55]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: Pure benzene prices were stable, and styrene prices rose [56]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [57]. PVC - **Market News**: PVC prices rose, and the inventory increased slightly [58]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium term [60]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: Ethylene glycol prices rose, and the inventory increased [61]. - **Strategy View**: The supply and demand need to be improved through production cuts, and the valuation is expected to be compressed [62]. PTA - **Market News**: PTA prices rose, and the inventory decreased [63]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to enter the inventory accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. Pay attention to the callback risk and mid - term long opportunities [64][65]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: p - Xylene prices rose, and the inventory decreased [66]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. Pay attention to the callback risk and mid - term long opportunities [67]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: PE prices rose, and the inventory decreased [68]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [69]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: PP prices rose, and the inventory decreased [70]. - **Strategy View**: The supply and demand are weak, and the price is expected to bottom out next year [72]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Category Hogs - **Market News**: Hog prices rose slightly, and the supply tightened [74]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term spot is strong, and it is recommended to go short after the near - month rally [74]. Eggs - **Market News**: Egg prices were stable, and the supply was sufficient [75]. - **Strategy View**: The near - month is under pressure, and it is recommended to go short after the rally [76]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: Soybean meal prices were stable, and the oil - mill start - up rate was high [77]. - **Strategy View**: The import cost has a bottom, and soybean meal is expected to oscillate [78]. Oils and Fats - **Market News**: Palm oil production and export data fluctuated, and domestic oil prices oscillated [79]. - **Strategy View**: Observe high - frequency data and conduct short - term operations [80]. Sugar - **Market News**: Sugar prices oscillated, and the import volume decreased [82][83]. - **Strategy View**: The international sugar price may rebound after February next year, and the domestic sugar price may continue to rebound in the short term [84]. Cotton - **Market News**: Cotton prices rebounded, and the planting area may be reduced [85]. - **Strategy View**: The supply and demand are balanced, and it is recommended to wait for a pull - back to go long [86].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in precious metal prices is attributed to a technical correction following a strong prior rally, compounded by multiple macroeconomic and geopolitical negative factors, particularly during the low liquidity period of the Christmas holidays in Europe and the U.S. [1] Group 1: Price Movements - As of December 30, domestic precious metal futures prices collectively fell, with the main gold contract down 3.11% and the main silver contract down 3.96%, while platinum and palladium futures hit their daily limit down [1] - The sharp decline in precious metal prices is seen as a correction of previous over-expectations regarding U.S. fiscal and monetary policies [2] - Platinum prices surged over 30% in the previous week, leading to significant profit-taking and increased volatility in the short term [2] Group 2: Market Influences - The expectation of a new Federal Reserve chair aligning with President Trump's fiscal policies is influencing market sentiment, with potential for accelerated interest rate cuts [4] - Global central banks are reducing U.S. Treasury holdings while increasing gold reserves, which directly supports higher precious metal prices [4] - The industrial demand for silver remains strong due to its support from the photovoltaic industry, while platinum and palladium face declining demand from the automotive sector [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the recent price corrections, the long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive, driven by expectations of continued Federal Reserve rate cuts [4] - The upcoming announcement of the new Federal Reserve chair and the pace of interest rate cuts will be critical factors to monitor [4] - The introduction of new regulations in India regarding silver collateral may impact international silver supply dynamics in the first quarter of the following year [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Fed chairperson selection may be announced soon, which will determine market expectations for next year's interest rate cuts. Tight liquidity in the US at the end of the year is negative for gold, which is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [2]. - The Fed's December meeting minutes suggest a possible pause in rate - cuts, but the easing cycle continues. The market expects a pause in January, so silver may reach a phased top and over - optimism should be avoided [2]. - Macro - policies will maintain a "double - loose" tone in 2026, which boosts market sentiment and supports steel prices. However, the steel market is in a weak balance, and short - term steel prices may oscillate narrowly [4]. - Iron ore supply is relatively stable, and demand is gradually stabilizing. With port inventories accumulating and strong upstream - downstream gaming, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. - The manganese - silicon market has a loose supply - demand pattern, with upstream inventory pressure capping prices. In the medium term, prices will oscillate around cost [5]. - The overall supply of pigs is abundant, and short - term pig prices will continue to rebound and adjust [5]. - Malaysian palm oil exports to the US are strong. Market expectations of reduced production and import profit inversion support palm oil prices, which are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [6]. - The spot price of soybean meal has a clear bottom support, while the main contract is suppressed by supply - demand expectations. The 05 contract may oscillate strongly in the short term [7]. - Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation as they seek a new balance between "real - world pressure" and "long - term narratives" [8]. - Oil prices are affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors and should be treated with an oscillatory view [9]. - PTA supply has not fully recovered, and there is no inventory - building pressure in January. A long - position strategy at low levels is recommended [9]. - Natural rubber prices are expected to be long - biased at low levels in the short term, considering factors such as production and demand [11]. - Long - term government bonds should be viewed with an oscillatory mindset, and attention should be paid to monetary policy and the relationship between the stock and bond markets [11]. - Methanol supply and demand remain weak, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [12]. - The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable and oscillatory, with prices expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. - PVC prices are expected to oscillate slightly downward in the short term due to factors such as supply, demand, and cost [14]. 3. Summary by Product Precious Metals - **Gold**: Fed chairperson news and year - end liquidity affect it. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [2]. - **Silver**: Fed meeting minutes suggest a possible pause in rate - cuts. It may reach a phased top, and over - optimism should be avoided [2]. Metals - **Steel**: Macro - policies support prices, but the market is in a weak balance, and short - term prices will oscillate narrowly [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is stable, demand is stabilizing, and prices will oscillate in the short term [4]. - **Manganese - Silicon**: Supply - demand is loose, and prices will oscillate around cost in the medium term [5]. - **Copper**: Prices will maintain a high - level oscillation as they balance short - term and long - term factors [8]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: Overall supply is abundant, and short - term prices will rebound and adjust [5]. - **Palm Oil**: Exports to the US are strong, and prices will oscillate strongly in the short term [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: Spot has bottom support, and the 05 contract may oscillate strongly in the short term [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Affected by supply - demand and geopolitics, prices should be treated with an oscillatory view [9]. - **PTA**: Supply has not fully recovered, and a long - position strategy at low levels is recommended [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: Prices are expected to be long - biased at low levels in the short term [11]. - **Methanol**: Supply and demand are weak, and prices will oscillate in the short term [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The market is weakly stable and oscillatory, with short - term price oscillation expected [13]. - **PVC**: Prices will oscillate slightly downward in the short term due to supply, demand, and cost factors [14]. Bonds - **Long - term Government Bonds**: An oscillatory mindset is recommended, and attention should be paid to monetary policy and market relationships [11].

12月30日午间，在岸人民币对美元升破7.0关口，创下2023年5月以来新高。中银证券全球首席经济学家 管涛认为，推动近期人民币汇率走强主要有两方面因素。一是美联储降息预期增强，驱动美元指数回 落。11月下旬至今，美元指数下跌约2.0%。二是今年以来，面对复杂的外部环境，中国经济展现出较 强韧性，近期国际货币基金组织、世界银行以及高盛等多家外资机构为中国经济投了"信任票"，纷纷上 调中国经济增速预测值，外资配置人民币资产兴趣增强。 对于汇率后市走势，专家表示，市场和经营 主体需要理性看待。未来影响汇率的市场因素和政策因素很多，人民币走势仍存在较大的不确定性。 ...

Group 1 - The onshore RMB against the USD has strengthened, breaking the 7.0 mark for the first time since May 2023, with a rise from approximately 7.35 to around 7.01 since April 2025 [1] - The offshore RMB also broke the 7.0 mark on December 25, marking the first occurrence since September 2024 [1] - Factors driving the recent strength of the RMB include increased expectations for US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in the US dollar index by about 2.0% since late November, and a resilient Chinese economy that has prompted foreign institutions to raise their growth forecasts for China [1] Group 2 - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized maintaining the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, with a focus on preventing excessive fluctuations [2] - The People's Bank of China highlighted the need for a dual-directional fluctuation and increased elasticity of the RMB exchange rate as a norm, aiming to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market and stabilize market expectations [2]

Market Overview - International gold is experiencing a volatile recovery, influenced by the Federal Reserve's pause on interest rate cuts in January and profit-taking activities [1] - Global central banks are expected to purchase over 1200 tons of gold by 2025, marking a record high for the same period, with China increasing its holdings for 13 consecutive months, providing long-term support [1] - The decline in U.S. inflation and a weak labor market have led to market expectations of three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, supporting the medium to long-term outlook for gold [1] Technical Analysis - Daily level: The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with MACD showing a golden cross above the zero line, but red bars are decreasing, and RSI is in an overbought pullback state, indicating a need to be cautious of a potential pullback in gold prices [1] - 4-hour level: The Bollinger Bands are also narrowing, with MACD showing a death cross, green bars decreasing, and RSI in an oversold rebound state, suggesting a need to be cautious of a potential short-term rebound in gold prices [1] - 1-hour level: The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with MACD showing a golden cross below the zero line and RSI in an oversold rebound state, indicating a need to be cautious of a potential short-term rebound in gold prices [1] Trading Strategy - For bullish positions: Aggressive traders can rely on a support level of $4150 per ounce, entering long positions around $4165-$4175 after stabilization; conservative traders can rely on a support level of $4000 per ounce, entering long positions around $4025-$4035 [1] - For bearish positions: Aggressive traders can rely on a resistance level of $4400 per ounce, entering short positions around $4395-$4385 after facing resistance; conservative traders can rely on a resistance level of $4550 per ounce, entering short positions around $4545-$4535 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the stock index strategy, some institutions have pre - started the Spring Market. With the growth of aerospace, satellite, robot, and battery sectors, the growth - style CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices have strengthened. After the New Year, funds are expected to enter the market, and it is advisable to establish long positions in stock index futures and buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on the CSI 1000 index before the New Year's Day. For the treasury bond strategy, it is recommended to conduct band operations in the volatile pattern. In the precious metals market, due to increased short - term fluctuations, it is necessary to adjust positions and control risks. For various agricultural, livestock, energy - chemical, black - building materials, and non - ferrous metal products, corresponding trading strategies and risk - avoidance measures are provided according to their respective market conditions [4][5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - Some institutions have pre - started the Spring Market. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices in the growth style have strengthened. After the New Year, funds are expected to enter the market from corporate to household and then to securities accounts. It is advisable to establish long positions in stock index futures with growth - related indices as the main targets before New Year's Day and buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on the CSI 1000 index [4] Treasury Bond - The fourth - quarter macroeconomic data shows that stabilizing growth remains the policy focus. The central bank will adjust the intensity, rhythm, and timing of monetary policy. Treasury bond futures maintained a volatile pattern in December and are expected to continue after the New Year [9] Precious Metals - The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in January next year is below 20%. The CME Group raised the performance margin for gold, silver, and other metal futures, triggering a short - term sharp correction in precious metals. It is necessary to adjust positions and control risks [13] Agricultural and Livestock Products Three Oils and Two Meals - Hold existing long positions in the 2605 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, but do not chase the high. Be wary of the potential negative impact of the increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory after the festival. Hold long positions in the two meals at low levels. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [16][21] Sugar and Jujube - For sugar, the domestic sugar market is currently dull. During the festival, focus on the trend of ICE raw sugar. It is advisable to wait and see, and reduce long positions or buy out - of - the - money put options. For jujube, there are still insufficient positive factors in the medium - to - long - term, and it is recommended to reduce long positions or use options for hedging [24] Cotton, Apple, and Log - Cotton may adjust in the short term, but the bottom support is strong. Apple's futures price is likely to remain in a high - level range - bound due to the structural contradiction of low inventory and low high - quality fruit rate. Logs are expected to maintain a low - level range - bound, and it is recommended to conduct range operations and pay attention to capital trends [17][26][27] Corn, Pig, and Egg - For corn, it is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and hold a light or empty position during the festival. Pig prices are seasonally strong in the short term, and it is necessary to manage positions during the festival. Egg prices are oscillating strongly in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the scale of chicken culling in January and manage positions during the festival [18][29][30][32] Energy and Chemical Products Crude Oil - The EIA inventory increased. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela are rising. The market believes that there is a chance for the Russia - Ukraine situation to ease, and there are concerns about long - term oversupply. It is recommended to hold a light position and be wary of the escalation of geopolitical risks [38] Lithium Carbonate - Some positive material factories are jointly overhauling, but the production of some links is decreasing. The non - ferrous and precious metals sector has corrected before the festival, and the exchange has introduced restrictive measures. It is necessary to pay attention to position management and the support level of 115,000 yuan/ton [40] Methanol - The port inventory is high, but the port market is stronger than the inland market. Iranian methanol production has decreased, and the import volume is expected to decline significantly in mid - to - late January. The main contract has strong support below and is limited by polyolefin prices above. It is recommended to continue holding long positions and pay attention to port inventory reduction and Iranian plant operations [43] Urea - The inventory pressure of upstream factories has been relieved. Some urea plants are reducing production due to environmental protection. The spring plowing season is coming. The short - term price is slightly strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously [46] Bottle Chips - The production and supply of bottle chips have changed little, and downstream demand is gradually improving. The short - term price fluctuates with raw materials, and it is advisable to take a bullish view. Be wary of significant fluctuations in crude oil during the festival [48] Pure Benzene - The arbitrage window between Asia and America has opened, and the port is slightly accumulating inventory, but the speed has slowed down. The downstream demand has declined, and the short - term price is in a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to take a bullish view on dips and pay attention to port arrivals and the transaction price in the US dollar pure - benzene market. Be wary of significant fluctuations in crude oil during the festival [51] Rubber System - For natural rubber, the upward momentum has weakened, the port inventory is accumulating, and some downstream tire enterprises have maintenance plans. It is recommended to reduce long positions or use options for hedging. For synthetic rubber, the price of upstream raw materials has risen, and the cost is supportive. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions or use options for hedging [54] Black and Building Materials Steel - The supply and demand of the five major steel products have decreased, the inventory is being depleted, and the winter storage market has not started yet. The inventory may accumulate later. The market is expected to be volatile during the festival. It is recommended to hold a light or empty position [61] Iron Ore - The fundamentals are expected to change little during the festival. The daily average pig iron production has increased slightly, the arrival volume has decreased, and the shipping volume has increased seasonally. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. Pay attention to the shipping situation of foreign mines. It is recommended to hold a light or empty position [64] Coking Coal and Coke - The coal mine production is stable, and the import volume is high. The downstream steel mill profitability has stopped falling, and the pig iron production has stabilized. The traditional winter storage demand is not obvious, but the rigid demand before the Spring Festival may support the price. The fourth round of coke price cuts may be implemented on January 1. The double - coke market is expected to be range - bound before and after the festival, and it is not recommended to chase short positions [67] Ferroalloys - The supply of manganese silicon is relatively loose, and the supply of silicon iron is in a tight - balance state. Due to the winter storage expectation, the double - silicon may have a concentrated replenishment after the festival. The market sentiment is positive, and the market performance is strong. It is recommended to hold a light position and not hold short positions during the festival [72] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract is near the technical resistance level and close to the overbought state. Combined with year - end capital repatriation and profit - taking, short - term fluctuations will intensify [74][79] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum is in a game between cost support and inventory pressure. It has no basis for a deep decline but lacks demand - driven upward momentum. It is not advisable to chase short positions or hold heavy long positions before the festival [75][81] Alumina - The alumina price is in a historical low range, but lacks clear demand - driven rebound momentum. It is not advisable to chase short positions or hold heavy long positions before the festival. After the festival, pay attention to the downstream resumption rhythm and inventory depletion speed [76][85] Caustic Soda - The current price is at a historical low. It is not recommended to chase short positions unilaterally. Pay attention to the maintenance announcements of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong and Jiangsu and the procurement dynamics of alumina factories before the festival [76][89]