市场正评估未来美联储降息节奏，密切关注本周多项经济数据；瑞士、瑞典和墨西哥等央行将公布利率决议。 上周国际市场风云变幻，各大央行成为市场焦点，除了美联储，发达经济体和新兴市场的央行也纷纷采取行动。加拿大、挪威和印度尼西亚央行宣布降息， 英国、日本和巴西央行则选择维持利率不变。上周，美股齐创新高，道指周涨1.05%，纳指周涨2.21%，标普500指数周涨1.22%。欧洲三大股指表现分化， 英国富时100指数周涨0.72%，德国DAX 30指数周跌0.25%，法国CAC 40指数周跌0.36%。国际金价刷新历史新高。 本周看点颇多，市场正评估未来美联储降息节奏，因此美国多项经济数据，包括个人消费支出（PCE）、采购经理人指数（PMI）及耐用品订单等数据将受 到密切关注。欧洲方面，欧元区和英国的初步采购经理人指数将让市场审视面临关税挑战下的地区经济运行状况。此外，瑞士、瑞典和墨西哥等央行将公布 利率决议。 美国重磅通胀指标出炉 最新公布的经济数据也加剧了市场担忧，美国就业市场有所疲软，同时由于未售出新房库存过剩，8月独栋住宅开工量跌至多年来的低点。 PVM石油咨询公司分析师瓦尔加（Tamas Varga）表示，油价 ...

Group 1: Japan's Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan (BoJ) initiated a slow reduction of its ETF and REITs holdings, planning to sell ¥3.3 trillion and ¥50 billion annually, respectively, while holding ¥37.2 trillion and ¥655 billion as of August[2][12] - Japan's overall CPI and core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) in August were 2.7% and 3.3%, down by 0.4 and 0.1 percentage points respectively, indicating a potential peak in inflation[2][15] - Concerns about trade environment, corporate profits, and consumer confidence suggest a low probability of the BoJ raising interest rates within the year[2][15] Group 2: UK Monetary Policy - The Bank of England (BoE) paused interest rate cuts, maintaining a rate of 4.0%, after previously cutting rates by 75 basis points in 2023[3][18] - UK inflation rates for August were 3.7% and 3.8% for overall and core CPI, respectively, remaining high despite a 0.2 percentage point decline from July[3][18] - The BoE reduced its planned bond sales from £100 billion to £70 billion over the next 12 months to avoid rapid increases in the interest rate curve[3][23] Group 3: US Economic Indicators - US retail sales in August grew by 5.0% year-on-year, a significant recovery of 0.9 percentage points from July, marking the highest growth since April[4][24] - Initial jobless claims in the second week of September fell to 231,000, down by 33,000 from the previous week, indicating a potential recovery in the labor market[4][28] - The recent tax cuts may sustain high consumer demand in the coming months, potentially boosting the labor market[4][29]

Core Viewpoint - The market is assessing the future pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, closely monitoring various economic data this week, while central banks in Switzerland, Sweden, and Mexico are set to announce their interest rate decisions [1][3]. Economic Data and Market Performance - Major central banks, including those in Canada, Norway, and Indonesia, have announced interest rate cuts, while the UK, Japan, and Brazil have opted to maintain their rates [1]. - U.S. stock markets reached new highs, with the Dow Jones up 1.05%, Nasdaq up 2.21%, and S&P 500 up 1.22% for the week [1]. - European stock indices showed mixed performance, with the UK FTSE 100 up 0.72%, while Germany's DAX 30 and France's CAC 40 fell by 0.25% and 0.36%, respectively [1]. - International gold prices hit a historical high [1]. Upcoming Economic Indicators - Key U.S. economic data to be released includes Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), and durable goods orders, which are expected to influence the assessment of future interest rate cuts [1][3]. - In Europe, preliminary PMI data for the Eurozone and the UK will provide insights into the economic conditions amid tariff challenges [1]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The PCE, a crucial inflation measure favored by the Federal Reserve, is set to be released this week, with investors evaluating the impact of tariffs on inflation [3]. - Recent data indicates a deterioration in the U.S. labor market, prompting attention to further evidence of economic slowdown [3]. Treasury Auctions - The U.S. Treasury plans to auction $69 billion in various maturities of government bonds this week, with market attention on the auction outcomes as the debt ceiling approaches [4]. Corporate Earnings - Upcoming earnings reports from companies such as Micron Technology, Costco, and Accenture are anticipated this week [5]. Oil and Gold Market Trends - International oil prices experienced a slight decline, with WTI crude down 0.02% to $62.68 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.46% to $66.68 per barrel, amid concerns over global energy supply and demand [6]. - Gold prices have shown resilience, with COMEX gold futures rising 0.61% to $3,671.50 per ounce, marking the fifth consecutive week of gains [6][7]. European Economic Outlook - European economic data this week will focus on confidence indicators, with expectations of slight improvements in Germany's manufacturing and services PMI, while France may see a decline due to political instability [8]. - The European Central Bank's recent optimistic tone has reinforced expectations for a pause in the easing cycle [8][9].

Group 1: UK Economic Situation - UK public sector net borrowing surged to £18 billion in August, the highest level for the month in five years, significantly exceeding economists' expectations of £12.8 billion [1] - The increase in borrowing is expected to pressure the UK government to consider cuts in public spending or tax increases in the upcoming autumn budget [1] - The yield on 30-year UK government bonds rose over 1% to nearly 5.50%, reflecting heightened concerns over fiscal stability [1] Group 2: Retail Sales and Economic Indicators - UK retail sales data for August exceeded expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year growth of 0.7%, surpassing forecasts of 0.4% and 0.6% respectively [1] - The strong performance in retail sales was driven by robust demand from online retailers and textile, clothing, and footwear stores [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Bank of England (BoE) maintained its interest rate at 4% with a 7-2 majority vote, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amid persistent inflation [2] - The BoE confirmed that inflation pressures are expected to peak around 4% in September [2] - The Federal Reserve has indicated plans to lower interest rates two more times this year, following a recent cut of 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% [4] Group 4: Currency Market Dynamics - The British pound faced significant selling pressure, dropping to around 1.3500 against the US dollar, influenced by a stronger dollar and the recent retail sales data [4][6] - The pound's decline was exacerbated by a breakdown below the 20-day exponential moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6] - Key support for GBP/USD is at the August 1 low of 1.3140, while resistance is at the July 1 high of 1.3800 [6]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, with potential for price increases if downstream demand recovers more than expected from late September to October. The black - metal sector is supported by the approaching peak season and pre - National Day stockpiling [4]. - For coking coal and coke, short - term volatility adjustment is expected, and a mid - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The upside potential is limited by steel demand and profit [10][12]. - Iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels as the market may not have priced in the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter, despite potential recovery in domestic manufacturing steel demand in September [13]. - Ferroalloys are expected to trade at the bottom, with silicon iron and manganese silicon both showing bottom - oscillating trends [16][17]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: In August 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 16.819 million units, a 12.3% year - on - year increase; refrigerator production was 9.453 million units, a 2.5% increase; washing - machine production was 10.132 million units, a 1.6% decrease; and color - TV production was 18.016 million units, a 3.2% decrease. As of September 18, the total volume of overhauled blast furnaces in 16 sample steel mills in Shanxi was 2010m³, with an overhaul volume ratio of 4.7%, and the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate was 12.3% higher than the same period last year [2]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shanghai, the price of rebar was 3240 yuan (- 20), and in Beijing, it was 3170 yuan (- 20). The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3420 yuan (-), and in Tianjin, it was 3340 yuan (-) [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector was volatile at night. Iron - water production increased slightly this week, and the production of the five major steel products was divided. Due to losses, EAF production decreased, and long - process production lines also switched production. Rebar production decreased significantly, while other varieties continued to increase. Demand is in the off - season, and the reduction in rebar production led to inventory depletion, while other varieties accumulated inventory. Steel demand is expected to recover slightly next week, and the black - metal sector is supported by the peak season and pre - holiday stockpiling [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Steel prices will be volatile and bullish. Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread and shrink the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. Options: Buy out - of - the - money options on RB01 [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 84.7%, a 1.9% increase from the previous week. The daily output of raw coal was 1.9 million tons, a 44,000 - ton increase. The raw - coal inventory was 4.7 million tons, a 32,000 - ton decrease. The daily output of clean coal was 761,000 tons, a 33,000 - ton increase, and the clean - coal inventory was 2.328 million tons, a 217,000 - ton decrease. The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.98%, a 0.15 - percentage - point increase from last week [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: Coking coal and coke were volatile at night. The coking coal spot market sentiment is good, with prices rising and auction flow rates decreasing. Downstream enterprises will stockpile raw materials before the National Day, supporting spot prices. The upside potential is limited by steel demand and profit [10][12]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Short - term volatility adjustment, mid - term buying on dips. Arbitrage: Enter the long 1 - 5 spread of coking coal on dips. Options: Hold. Futures - cash: Hold [12]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years. The Bank of England maintained the interest rate at 4% and reduced the quantitative tightening scale. On September 18, the national main - port iron - ore trading volume was 974,000 tons, a 23% decrease from the previous day [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore was narrowly volatile at night. In the third quarter, global iron - ore shipments increased significantly, mainly from Brazil. Terminal steel demand in China weakened in the third quarter, while overseas steel demand remained high. Iron - ore prices may face pressure at high levels [13]. - **Trading Strategies**: Not fully provided in the report, but the analyst's information is given [15]. Ferroalloys - **Related Information**: On the 18th, the price of semi - carbonate manganese ore (Mn36.02%) at Tianjin Port was 34.5 yuan/ton - degree. Jupiter announced the October 2025 manganese - ore shipping price to China [16]. - **Logic Analysis**: Silicon - iron spot prices were stable on the 18th. Supply rumors were false, and supply remained high. Demand was supported by steel production. Manganese - silicon spot prices were stable, with alloy - factory production increasing slightly. Demand was affected by the decline in rebar production, but cost was supported by high - priced manganese ore [16]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Bottom - oscillating. Arbitrage: Hold. Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations on rallies [17][19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View - The Fed's dot - plot in September shows 2 rate cuts by the end of 2025 and only 1 in 2026, while the market expects 5 rate cuts from Oct/Dec 2025 and Mar/Jun/Sep 2026, indicating the Fed's future rate - cut path is hawkish. Considering Trump's pressure, geopolitical risks like the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, precious metal prices may be weak first and then strong [1]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 824.53 yuan/gram, down 5.72 yuan from the previous day and 5.81 yuan from the previous week. The trading volume was 49,462, and the holding volume was 207,592 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 9,811 yuan/ten - gram, down 65 yuan from the previous day and 223 yuan from the previous week. The trading volume was 457,876, and the holding volume was 395,854 [1]. - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price was 3,678.20 dollars/ounce, down 2.20 dollars from the previous day and 16.40 dollars from the previous week. The trading volume was 176,290, and the holding volume was 388,882 [1]. - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price was 42.10 dollars/ounce, up 0.11 dollars from the previous day and 0.45 dollars from the previous week. The trading volume was 17,105, and the holding volume was 131,335 [1]. 3.2 Important Information - The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged and slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, the largest drop in nearly four years [1]. - Overseas investors' holdings of US Treasuries reached a new high in July. Japan's holdings hit a new high in over a year, the UK increased its holdings by over $40 billion for two consecutive months, China's holdings were at a 16 - year low, and Canada's holdings decreased by $57.1 billion [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - Wait for the price to fall and then mainly layout long positions. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 and the resistance level around 3,750 - 3,840. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 800 - 810 and the resistance level around 840 - 850. For London silver, focus on the support level around 39 - 40 and the resistance level around 43 - 46. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 9,500 - 9,700 and the resistance level around 10,300 - 10,500 [1].

Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25%[4] - In August 2025, non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, significantly lower than the 142,000 in August 2024[4] - The unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.2% in July to 4.3% in August 2025, compared to 4.2% in August 2024[4] Inflation Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year increased by 2.9% in August 2025, while core CPI rose by 3.1%[4] - In August 2024, CPI was up 2.5% and core CPI was 3.2%, indicating a similar inflation level but with different trends[6] - Core CPI has shown a rising trend from 2.8% in April 2025 to 3.1% in August 2025, contrasting with the declining trend observed in 2024[8] Market Reactions and Policy Implications - The cautious 25 basis point cut reflects a shift towards signaling rather than aggressive policy changes[16] - Concerns over rising tariffs announced by President Trump may further increase inflation, complicating the Fed's decision-making[4] - The market's reaction to the rate cut was stable, with no significant fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, indicating investor caution[4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, while in the short - term, London gold and silver may enter an adjustment phase. The support for London gold is lowered to 3600, with strong support at 3500, and resistance at 3650 and 3700. The support for London silver is 41, with strong support at 40.5, and the upper resistance levels are 42, 43, and the 44 - 45 area. The operation strategy is to maintain the idea of buying on dips, and those who hold previous long positions should hold them cautiously [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, precious metal prices showed mixed performance. London spot gold slightly declined, while spot silver, platinum, and palladium slightly increased. The precious metal market is in a bullish vacuum period after the Fed's interest rate cut, and may enter a phased consolidation stage. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3678.2 per ounce, down 1.07%; US silver 2512 contract closed at $42.1 per ounce, down 0.12%. SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 826.82 yuan per gram, down 1.72%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 9835 yuan per kilogram, down 1.94%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week unexpectedly dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, the largest decline in nearly four years, causing precious metals to fall. The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged and slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations have slightly increased. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 8.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 91.9%. For December, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 0.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 15.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 83.9%. For January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 8.2%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 50.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 40.9%. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 975.66 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 15.53 tons to 15,205.14 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 17.9 tons to 1203.5 tons, and SGX silver inventory increased by 4.1 tons to 1252.4 tons as of the week ending September 12 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week's data is generally light. On Friday, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision [4]. 3.4 Precious Metal Price and Inventory Data - Precious metal price data shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various precious metal contracts. Inventory data shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories, as well as the holdings of relevant ETFs [5][16]. 3.5 Other Market Data - Other market data includes the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread [20].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England has announced a slowdown in its quantitative tightening (QT) measures, reducing the planned bond sales from £100 billion to £70 billion over the next 12 months, which is less than market expectations, signaling a cautious approach to monetary policy [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 to maintain the base interest rate at 4%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The adjustment in bond sales will see a shift in the structure, with short, medium, and long-term bonds being sold in a ratio of 40:40:20, aimed at alleviating pressure on the long-term bond market [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the yield on 30-year UK government bonds rose from 5.434% to 5.496%, indicating a market response to the reduced QT pace [2] - The pound against the dollar fell by 0.53%, closing at 1.3550, reflecting market sentiment after the Bank of England's decision [2] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Bank of England has slightly revised its third-quarter economic growth forecast from 0.3% to 0.4% [1] - Inflation expectations remain uncertain, with the central bank projecting a peak inflation rate of 4% this month, gradually declining to the 2% target by the second quarter of 2027 [2] - Market expectations for further interest rate cuts have only modestly increased, with traders estimating a 37% probability for this year [2]

Group 1 - The Bank of England maintained the policy interest rate at 4.00%, aligning with market expectations, with a voting outcome of 7 in favor and 2 against [2][5] - The forward guidance indicates that future rate cuts will depend on the persistence of declining inflation trends [3][6] - The pace of quantitative tightening was reduced from £100 billion to £70 billion, with unanimous support from seven members [4][6] Group 2 - The GBP/USD exchange rate showed initial gains but subsequently fell, currently reported at 1.3591, reflecting market reactions to the Bank of England's decisions [5] - Market expectations remain unchanged, with traders anticipating a 6 basis point rate cut this year and a total of 45 basis points by the end of 2026 [5] - The Bank of England's cautious stance on future rate cuts is influenced by rising concerns over inflation, which has led to reduced bets on imminent rate reductions [6]