Core Viewpoint - Shanghai's new real estate policy, implemented on August 25, aims to address structural market issues by allowing eligible families outside the outer ring to purchase homes without restrictions and increasing the public housing fund loan limits, which has quickly attracted market attention [1][2]. Group 1: Market Response - The first week after the policy's implementation saw a significant increase in market activity, with new home sales doubling compared to the previous week, and some projects achieving "sold out" status on the first day [1][2]. - The policy has led to a surge in inquiries and viewings in the second-hand housing market, indicating a recovery in market confidence [5][6]. - The new policy has effectively reduced home purchasing costs, stimulating demand in the outer ring new housing market [1][3]. Group 2: Sales Performance - The Jinmao Tangqian project in Baoshan district launched 160 units at an average price of 53,900 yuan per square meter, achieving a subscription rate of 162.5% on the opening day [2]. - The Poly Haishangyin project also reported strong performance, with a subscription rate of 170% for 168 units, indicating robust demand in the outer ring area [2][3]. - Sales figures from the previous week showed a 35.25% increase in new residential area transactions, with significant contributions from the outer districts [7]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Analysts expect the positive effects of the new policy to continue, especially with the traditional peak sales season of "Golden September and Silver October" approaching [1][8]. - The new policy is anticipated to bring over a 20% increase in customer volume for large residential projects, enhancing sales momentum [7][8]. - Despite the positive outlook, there remains a cautionary note regarding the varying performance across different projects, with some experiencing lower demand [9].

Core Viewpoint - The arrival of the traditional consumption peak season "Golden September and Silver October" is expected to support copper prices, which are likely to maintain a strong trend due to multiple factors including macroeconomic conditions and supply-demand dynamics [1] Group 1: Price Trends - As of September 1, 2025, the spot copper recycling price is 73,700 yuan per ton [1] - The main copper futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has reached 79,680 yuan per ton [1] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price closed at 9,906 USD per ton, marking a 0.68% increase and setting a new high [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and tight supply conditions are driving the upward movement of copper prices [1] - According to SMM's monthly analysis, copper prices are anticipated to continue fluctuating with a strong upward bias due to multiple supporting factors [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to keep a close watch on market dynamics and relevant policy changes as copper prices are expected to maintain an upward trend supported by macroeconomic and supply-demand factors [1]

棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-09-01 响。总体来说，外盘棉花下跌，国内盘面跟随下跌，不过短期国内旧作供应偏紧，加上需求改善预期，对 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 价格存在支撑，下方空间有限。操作上，建议暂时观望。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 14025 | -215 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20020 | -120 | | | 棉花期货前2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing stable prices with a slight upward trend in certain products, driven by rising raw material costs and positive market sentiment towards future demand [1][3][4][6]. Price Trends - As of Friday, the price for 201J2/2B 1.0 macro steel coil is reported at 7300 CNY/ton, and 201J1/2B 1.0 at 8000 CNY/ton, both showing an increase of 100 CNY/ton compared to the end of July [1]. - The price for 201J1 five-inch hot-rolled steel has risen to 7650 CNY/ton, up 150 CNY/ton from the end of July [1]. Raw Material Costs - Continuous increases in raw material prices are providing cost support, with copper prices rising to 79350 CNY/ton, an increase of 500 CNY/ton from the previous week [3]. - The cost of 201J2 private cold-rolled steel has increased by 89 CNY/ton compared to the previous week, indicating stronger cost support [3]. Inventory Levels - In the Wuxi market, the inventory of 200 series steel has decreased by 0.28 million tons to 62,000 tons, with cold-rolled inventory decreasing by 0.41 million tons and hot-rolled inventory increasing by 0.13 million tons [4]. Market Sentiment and Demand - The initial week saw a significant increase in futures prices, leading to a corresponding rise in spot market prices, with traders raising prices by 50-100 CNY/ton [6]. - As the week progressed, market sentiment shifted, leading to price reductions of 30-50 CNY/ton as traders sought to increase sales volume, resulting in a decrease in overall transaction volume [6]. - The market remains optimistic about the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season, with expectations for increased downstream demand [6]. Future Outlook - The steel market is expected to maintain stable prices in the short term, with 201J2/J5 cold-rolled steel projected to fluctuate between 7000-7500 CNY/ton [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views Plastic - Supply - demand contradiction eases, with strong bottom support. The "Golden September and Silver October" traditional consumption season is coming, downstream demand shows signs of recovery, and supply pressure eases, but there is still inventory pressure. It is expected that the LL main contract will fluctuate in the range of 7200 - 7500, and short - selling opportunities should be watched [8]. PP - There is significant trend pressure, and it will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Although the supply side maintains high pressure, the downward space of the market is limited. It is expected that the PP main contract will fluctuate weakly, and the range of 6950 - 7300 should be watched [9]. Summary by Directory Plastic Market Changes - On August 29, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7287 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 63 yuan/ton or - 0.86%. The average price of LDPE was 9650 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.40%; the average price of HDPE was 7982.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.09%; the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7591.18 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.09%. The LLDPE South China basis was 304.18 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 90.81%; the 5 - 9 month spread was - 68 yuan/ton (- 5), with the basis widening and the month spread narrowing [8][11]. Fundamental Changes - **Cost and Profit**: WTI crude oil was at 64.01 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 5.35 US dollars/barrel from the previous month; Brent crude oil was at 67.46 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 4.32 US dollars/barrel from the previous month. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1080 yuan/ton (+30). The profit of oil - based PE was - 305 yuan/ton, an increase of 168 yuan/ton from the previous month; the profit of coal - based PE was 936 yuan/ton, a decrease of 206 yuan/ton from the previous month [8]. - **Supply**: The production start - up rate of polyethylene was 78.68%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points from the previous month. The weekly output of polyethylene was 61.78 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%. The maintenance of petrochemical enterprise equipment remained at a high level, and the maintenance loss this week was 13.20 tons, an increase of 0.92 tons from the previous week [8][32]. - **Demand**: The overall domestic agricultural film start - up rate was 17.46%, an increase of 4.83% from the previous month; the PE packaging film start - up rate was 49.56%, an increase of 1.49% from the previous month; the PE pipe start - up rate was 30.17%, an increase of 1.34% from the previous month [8][39]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of plastic enterprises was 56.20 tons, an increase of 0.36 tons or 0.64% from the end of last month [8]. Main Operating Logic - The traditional consumption season is coming, downstream demand recovers, and supply pressure eases. However, due to the large amount of production capacity to be put into operation in the second half of the year, there is still resistance to upward breakthrough. The short - term supply - demand contradiction eases, which strongly supports the market [8]. Key Points of Attention - Downstream demand, Fed rate cuts, Sino - US talks, Middle East situation, and crude oil price fluctuations [8]. PP Market Changes - On August 29, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6974 yuan/ton, a decrease of 144 yuan/ton from the previous month [9][53]. Fundamental Changes - **Cost and Profit**: WTI crude oil was at 64.01 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 5.35 US dollars/barrel from the previous month; Brent crude oil was at 67.46 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 4.32 US dollars/barrel from the previous month. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1080 yuan/ton (+30). The profit of oil - based PP was - 327.71 yuan/ton, an increase of 40.90 yuan/ton from the previous month; the profit of coal - based PP was 364.08 yuan/ton, a decrease of 212.60 yuan/ton from the previous month [9][70]. - **Supply**: The start - up rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 80.00%, an increase of 3.06 percentage points from the previous month. The weekly output of PP pellets was 80.88 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.86%; the weekly output of PP powder was 7.39 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.29% [9][77]. - **Demand**: The average downstream start - up rate was 49.74% (+1.37). The start - up rate of plastic weaving was 42.30% (-1.20), the start - up rate of BOPP was 60.40% (+0.40%), the start - up rate of injection molding was 57.44% (+1.64%), and the start - up rate of pipes was 36.37% (+0.20%) [9][83]. - **Inventory**: The domestic PP inventory was 53.85 tons (-5.91%); the inventory of two major oil companies decreased by 12.93% month - on - month; the inventory of traders decreased by 1.81% month - on - month; the port inventory increased by 2.73% month - on - month [9][92]. Main Operating Logic - The weekly output of PP has increased again, and the supply side remains loose. Although downstream demand is still weak, there is an expectation of an increase in start - up due to the consumption season and low prices. The downward space of the market is limited [9]. Key Points of Attention - Downstream demand, Fed rate cuts, Sino - US talks, Middle East situation, and crude oil price fluctuations [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Beijing real estate market is undergoing a transformation driven by policy changes and market dynamics, with a focus on product quality and customer needs rather than merely price competition [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "Golden September and Silver October" sales season is approaching, and the market is expected to see a cautious recovery, although it will take time for a full rebound [7]. - Current policies in Beijing have been relaxed, leading to a heightened focus on what constitutes a "good house," which should reflect genuine customer needs rather than just regulatory standards [3][5]. Group 2: Company Strategy - The company emphasizes enhancing product quality over price reductions, believing that true value comes from tangible improvements in design and service [3][5]. - The company has adopted a collaborative approach in land acquisition, partnering with local state-owned enterprises and quality developers to mitigate risks and leverage local market knowledge [9]. Group 3: Customer Insights - Customers, particularly high-end buyers, are becoming more discerning and rational in their purchasing decisions, leading to longer decision-making cycles [5][6]. - The company is adapting to the changing preferences of younger customers, focusing on aesthetics, quality, and lifestyle needs in their projects [7][10]. Group 4: Product Development - The company is committed to continuous interaction with customers to refine product offerings, viewing clients as co-creators in the development process [5][6]. - Projects like the Xiangshan Yuet have incorporated customer feedback into design elements, enhancing the overall living experience [5][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the trends of steel and ore diverged, with rebar and hot-rolled coils being weak, while iron ore was relatively strong [68]. - The marginal effects of news such as capacity reduction and military parade began to decline, weakening the price support, and the market focus returned to fundamentals [68]. - The weekly apparent demand for rebar continued to rise slightly, but the off - season demand remained weak, and social inventories continued to increase, putting pressure on the later - stage fundamentals. The situation of hot - rolled coils was relatively better, with demand expected to improve, but it was dragged down by rebar [68]. - Although the molten iron output decreased slightly, it remained at a high level. The domestic inventory decreased month - on - month, and combined with the firm raw material prices, it supported the iron ore price [68]. - The market will enter the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" later, and whether the demand can pick up is the focus of attention. Technically, the price shows a bearish trend, and short - term short - side operations are recommended, but attention should be paid to the sudden intraday violent price fluctuations caused by the sentiment of capacity reduction [68]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis 3.1.1 One - week Data Changes | Project | Change | | --- | --- | | PB powder price (yuan/wet ton) | Increased from 767 to 779, up 12 [6] | | Bahun powder price (yuan/wet ton) | Increased from 810 to 816, up 6 [6] | | PB powder spot landing profit (yuan/wet ton) | Decreased from - 6.77 to - 11.35, down 4.58 [6] | | Bahun powder spot landing profit (yuan/wet ton) | Decreased from 13.39 to - 2.61, down 16 [6] | | Australia's shipment volume to China (10,000 tons) | Increased from 1347.5 to 1658.2, up 310.7 [6] | | Brazil's shipment volume to China (10,000 tons) | Decreased from 1065.5 to 811.7, down 253.8 [6] | | Imported iron ore port inventory (10,000 tons) | Decreased from 14444.2 to 14388.02, down 56.18 [6] | | Imported iron ore arrival volume (10,000 tons) | Decreased from 2703.1 to 2462.3, down 240.8 [6] | | Imported iron ore port clearance volume (10,000 tons) | Decreased from 341.04 to 334.14, down 6.9 [6] | | Iron ore port trading volume (10,000 tons) | Decreased from 81.9 to 60.9, down 21 [6] | | Average daily molten iron output (10,000 tons) | Decreased from 240.75 to 240.13, down 0.62 [6] | | Steel enterprise profitability rate (%) | Decreased from 64.94 to 63.64, down 1.3 [6] | 3.1.2 Other Aspects Including iron ore port spot price, iron ore futures - spot basis, iron ore import profit, iron ore shipment volume, iron ore port inventory and steel mill inventory, iron ore arrival volume and port clearance volume, steel enterprise production situation, iron ore port average daily trading volume and steel mill average daily molten iron, but no specific analysis content is provided other than data [8][13][16] 3.2 Market Status Analysis 3.2.1 One - week Data Changes | Project | Change | | --- | --- | | Shanghai rebar price (yuan/ton) | Decreased from 3280 to 3270, down 10 [37] | | Shanghai hot - rolled coil price (yuan/ton) | Decreased from 3400 to 3380, down 20 [37] | | Blast furnace operating rate (%) | Decreased from 83.36 to 83.2, down 0.16 [37] | | Electric furnace operating rate (%) | Decreased from 75.69 to 75.1, down 0.59 [37] | | Rebar blast furnace profit (yuan/ton) | Decreased from 67 to 33, down 34 [37] | | Hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit (yuan/ton) | Decreased from 95 to 66, down 29 [37] | | Rebar electric furnace profit (yuan/ton) | Decreased from - 93 to - 124, down 31 [37] | | Rebar weekly output (10,000 tons) | Increased from 214.65 to 220.56, up 5.91 [37] | | Hot - rolled coil weekly output (10,000 tons) | Decreased from 325.24 to 324.74, down 0.5 [37] | | Rebar weekly social inventory (10,000 tons) | Increased from 432.51 to 453.77, up 21.26 [39] | | Hot - rolled coil weekly social inventory (10,000 tons) | Increased from 282.55 to 285.78, up 3.23 [39] | | Rebar weekly enterprise inventory (10,000 tons) | Decreased from 174.53 to 169.62, down 4.91 [39] | | Hot - rolled coil weekly enterprise inventory (10,000 tons) | Increased from 78.89 to 79.68, up 0.79 [39] | | Rebar weekly apparent consumption (10,000 tons) | Increased from 194.8 to 204.21, up 9.41 [39] | | Hot - rolled coil weekly apparent consumption (10,000 tons) | Increased from 318.18 to 321.71, up 3.53 [39] | | Building material trading volume (tons) | Decreased from 93906 to 83808, down 10098 [39] | 3.2.2 Other Aspects Including the summary price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, rebar and hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai, but no specific analysis content is provided other than data [42][44] 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Analysis - It includes aspects such as blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates, rebar and hot - rolled coil actual production, steel profits, rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory, building material trading volume, apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils, steel exports, real estate development investment and sales data, and manufacturing PMI. However, no specific analysis content is provided other than data [46][49][53]

Group 1 - In August, the average price of new residential properties in first-tier cities increased by 6.88% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.48% [1] - The average price of new residential properties in second-tier cities rose by 1.64% year-on-year, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a year-on-year decline of 1.06% [1] - The average price of second-hand residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 4.17% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.55% [1] Group 2 - Recent policy adjustments in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai have relaxed purchase restrictions, allowing eligible buyers to purchase multiple properties outside the city center [2] - The central government has reiterated its goal of stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to boost market confidence and lead to a series of supportive policies in September [2] - The traditional peak sales season in September and October is anticipated to increase market activity, with developers expected to accelerate the launch of new projects in core cities [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August 2025, the Iron Ore 2601 contract rose 3.55%. The iron ore spot has been fluctuating recently. Last week, global shipments declined slightly, and port inventories decreased marginally. Due to blast furnace maintenance in Tangshan and sintering machine production restrictions in Shandong, demand decreased slightly. In the short term, iron ore will maintain a fluctuating trend with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. The supply is stable. Blast furnace maintenance in steel mills in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas is clear, and other regional steel enterprises are also undergoing maintenance. Next week, the daily average hot metal production will be affected by over 40,000 tons, but the impact time is limited. After next week, iron ore demand will return to a high level, and port inventory accumulation is not obvious. There is a multi - empty game in downstream steel, but the medium - and long - term macro narrative is still upward. Attention should continue to be paid to policy implementation and terminal demand [5][35]. - According to Mysteel, the average price of iron ore in August was $101.2 per ton. The decline in iron ore supply is greater than that in demand. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased slightly to 33.158 million tons month - on - month, still at a relatively high level, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.92 million tons this year. On the demand side, hot metal production declined slightly and remained at a medium - high level. In terms of inventory, the iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China decreased by 561,800 tons month - on - month and is currently at 144 million tons. In August, with the decline in market sentiment, the black sector generally fluctuated and corrected, and iron ore fluctuated. In September, the black sector enters the peak season. The recovery of downstream demand may support the black sector to stabilize and rebound, and iron ore may fluctuate strongly [6][38]. Summary by Directory 1. Disk Analysis - **Futures Price**: In August 2025, the Iron Ore 2601 contract rose 3.55% [10] 2. Important Market Information - The "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting High - Quality Urban Development" was released, aiming to promote the construction of "good houses" and complete communities, and improve the real - estate development model [17]. - In August, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing prosperity level [17]. 3. Supply - side Situation - As of July 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 104.62 million tons, a decrease of 1.33 million tons from the previous month, and the import average price was $91.41 per ton, a decrease of $1.47 per ton from the previous month [22]. - As of June 2025, the iron ore shipment volume from Australia was 71.156 million tons, an increase of 2.908 million tons from the previous month, and that from Brazil was 27.158 million tons, a decrease of 889,000 tons from the first half of the month [25]. 4. Demand - side Situation - Last week, the daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 2.4013 million tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons from the previous week and an increase of 192,400 tons year - on - year [29]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Recently, the iron ore spot has been fluctuating. Last week, global shipments declined slightly, and port inventories decreased marginally. Due to blast furnace maintenance in Tangshan and sintering machine production restrictions in Shandong, demand decreased slightly. In the short term, iron ore will maintain a fluctuating trend with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. The supply is stable. Blast furnace maintenance in steel mills in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas is clear, and other regional steel enterprises are also undergoing maintenance. Next week, the daily average hot metal production will be affected by over 40,000 tons, but the impact time is limited. After next week, iron ore demand will return to a high level, and port inventory accumulation is not obvious. There is a multi - empty game in downstream steel, but the medium - and long - term macro narrative is still upward. Attention should continue to be paid to policy implementation and terminal demand [5][35]. - According to Mysteel, last week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 137.6302 million tons, a decrease of 821,800 tons month - on - month; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.1864 million tons, a decrease of 71,000 tons; the number of ships at ports was 98, an increase of 6. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 143.8802 million tons, a decrease of 561,800 tons month - on - month; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3414 million tons, a decrease of 69,000 tons. In terms of components, the inventory of Australian ore was 61.3031 million tons, a decrease of 1.2872 million tons; the inventory of Brazilian ore was 54.2676 million tons, an increase of 598,700 tons; the inventory of traded ore was 92.2802 million tons, an increase of 146,900 tons; the inventory of coarse powder was 112.9016 million tons, an increase of 424,100 tons; the inventory of lump ore was 16.689 million tons, a decrease of 971,100 tons; the inventory of concentrate powder was 11.3859 million tons, an increase of 223,300 tons; the inventory of pellets was 2.9037 million tons, a decrease of 238,100 tons. The number of ships at ports was 101, an increase of 4 [36]. 6. Market Outlook - According to Mysteel, the average price of iron ore in August was $101.2 per ton. The decline in iron ore supply is greater than that in demand. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased slightly to 33.158 million tons month - on - month, still at a relatively high level, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.92 million tons this year. On the demand side, hot metal production declined slightly and remained at a medium - high level. In terms of inventory, the iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China decreased by 561,800 tons month - on - month and is currently at 144 million tons. In August, with the decline in market sentiment, the black sector generally fluctuated and corrected, and iron ore fluctuated. In September, the black sector enters the peak season. The recovery of downstream demand may support the black sector to stabilize and rebound, and iron ore may fluctuate strongly [6][38]. 7. Operation Strategy - **Single - side**: It is recommended to take a long - biased approach on dips. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Opportunistically sell deep out - of - the - money put options [39]

| 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 号 证监许可【2012】1087 | | | | | 黑色板块研究员：魏云 | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 | | | | | 电话：0931-8894545 | | | | | 邮箱：497976013@qq.com | | | | | 报告日期：2025 年 1 | 9 | 月 | 日星期一 | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：上周螺纹 2601 合约下跌 1.06%。 报告日期：2025 年 9 月 1 日星期一 基本面：据 mysteel，上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 83.2%， 环比减少 0.16%，同比增加 6.79%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 90.02%， 环比减少 0.23%，同比增加 7.06%；钢厂盈利率 63.64%，环比减 少 1.30%，同比增加 59.74%；日均铁水产量 240.13 万吨，环比 减少 0.62 万吨，同比增加 19.24 万吨。受环保及 ...