Group 1: Tariff Changes - China's tariff on U.S. imports decreased from 125% to 10%, while the U.S. tariff on Chinese imports dropped from 145% to 30%[1] - The previous market expectations for tariff rates were between 45% and 54%, indicating a significant reduction beyond expectations[1] - The weighted average tariff rate for U.S. imports from China in 2024 is approximately 10%, slightly lower than the 12% calculated based on 2017 import values[2] Group 2: Trade Impact - U.S. imports from China increased by 8.9% during the three weeks following the tariff imposition, averaging $1.24 billion per day[4] - The reduction in tariffs is expected to restore trade to a relatively normal state, although the current 30% tariff is still higher than last year's 12%[3] - High-tech products, previously subject to a 25% tariff, now face a combined tariff of 55%, which may limit the decline in exports to the U.S.[5] Group 3: Market Reactions - The capital market may experience a boost in risk appetite, with short-term stock market performance expected to strengthen[7] - International gold prices have retreated over 3%, nearing the low point of $3,202 per ounce observed on May 1[8] - U.S. Treasury yields for 10-year and 30-year bonds rose by 5-6 basis points following the tariff reductions, with yields reaching 1.68% and 1.94% respectively[8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since April, tariff policies have significantly influenced global asset pricing, and the trading logic of the domestic bond market has shifted from concerns about liability shortages and monetary constraints to speculating on fundamental changes under tariff policies and expectations of monetary easing through policy hedging. The market trading characteristics and yield curve shapes vary at different stages of tariff games [4]. - The substantial easing of the China - US tariff game alleviates the suppression of the export chain by trade frictions, boosts economic growth expectations to some extent, and may have a negative impact on the bond market. After the release of the joint statement, the market pricing logic may change, with the equity market rising and the bond market facing significant callback pressure [9]. - Currently, the easing of China - US tariff policies and the implementation of domestic growth - stabilizing policies may reduce the "safe - haven premium" of the bond market and increase interest rate volatility and upward risks. The implementation of the central bank's financial policies may lead to a situation of "good news exhausted." The long - term interest rate has risen rapidly, and the market may be sensitive to negative factors [10]. - Looking ahead, considering the potential recurrence of tariff policies and the need to further consolidate the foundation of domestic economic recovery, the bond market faces headwinds. When the 10 - year Treasury yield is in the range of 1.7% - 1.8%, trading opportunities for long positions can be grasped [13]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tariff Policy and Bond Market Deduction - **March - end to early April: Tariff increase shock period**: The implementation of Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy led to a general decline in global risk assets. Funds flowed into the bond market for safety. Benefiting from expectations of monetary easing and rising risk - aversion sentiment, the long - term interest rate in the domestic market declined smoothly, and the yield curve showed a bull - flattening trend [5]. - **Mid - April to late April: Tariff game and waiting period**: Against the backdrop of high - tariff policies, market expectations of a marginal easing of the China - US tariff game, the announcement of a 1.3 - trillion - yuan ultra - long - term special treasury bond issuance plan, and the stable policy stance of the Politburo meeting led to a multi - factor tug - of - war in the market. The bond market oscillated, and the yield curve continued to flatten [6]. - **Since May: Period of policy implementation and tariff easing signal release**: After the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, the market faced a situation of "good news exhausted." With the release of tariff easing signals, the adjustment pressure on the bond market, especially the long - term interest rate, gradually increased. The improvement in export data and the release of the joint statement on China - US economic and trade talks may boost economic growth expectations and have a negative impact on the bond market, causing the yield curve to show a bear - steepening trend [8][9]. Interest Rate Repricing under Tariff Easing - **Spread between 10 - year Treasury and 7 - day OMO rate**: As of May 12, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yield rose to 1.69%, approaching the key point of 1.7%. The spread between the 10 - year Treasury and the 7 - day OMO rate has significantly recovered. If the long - term interest rate continues to face pressure and the 10 - year Treasury yield adjusts above 1.7%, allocation opportunities can be gradually grasped, with a key point of 1.75% for evaluation [10][11]. - **Spread between 10 - year Treasury and funding rate**: Since the beginning of this year, the bond market has shown an obvious negative carry phenomenon. In April, with the central bank's liquidity support and policy rate cuts, the spread between the 10 - year Treasury and the funding rate gradually repaired, and the bond market returned to a positive carry state. Under the easing of the China - US tariff game, the short - and medium - term bond varieties still have some support, while the long - term bonds may face adjustment pressure, and the yield curve may steepen in the short term [12].

Group 1 - The report indicates a high probability of short-term fluctuations in the bond market, suggesting maintaining duration and waiting for opportunities as the best strategy [2][3] - The market is divided into two main viewpoints: the bullish camp believes in the positive impact of recent monetary policy easing on short-term bonds, while the cautious camp warns of potential profit-taking pressure on long-term bonds [3][4] - The overall sentiment among fixed-income buyers is neutral to slightly bullish, with 47% of institutions holding a bullish view, emphasizing the importance of liquidity and monetary policy support [4][14] Group 2 - The seller sentiment index has decreased slightly, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish market outlook, with 50% of institutions maintaining a bullish stance due to favorable monetary policy conditions [13] - The buyer sentiment index has increased, reflecting a neutral to slightly bullish perspective, with 47% of institutions optimistic about the central bank's easing measures [14] - The report highlights the recent increase in trading volume and turnover rates for government bonds, indicating a more active market environment [22][34] Group 3 - The report notes a narrowing basis for the TS/TL contracts, while the IRR for the TS contract has decreased, suggesting a mixed outlook for different bond maturities [41][43] - The cross-period spreads have widened overall, indicating potential opportunities for short-term strategies in the bond market [49][50] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy changes and market sentiment as they can significantly impact bond yields and investor behavior [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The 5-year local government bond ETF (159972) has shown a slight increase and is experiencing active trading, with significant developments in the US-China trade negotiations impacting market sentiment [2][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of May 12, 2025, the 5-year local government bond ETF (159972) rose by 0.05%, with the latest price at 116 yuan [1]. - Over the past six months, the ETF has accumulated a total increase of 2.09% [2]. - The ETF's latest scale reached 4.598 billion yuan, marking a new high in nearly a year [2]. Group 2: Market Activity - The ETF experienced a turnover rate of 18.8% during trading, with a transaction volume of 864 million yuan, indicating active market participation [2]. - The average daily transaction volume over the past month was 1.425 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Economic Context - Recent US-China trade talks in Geneva have reportedly made "substantial progress" regarding tariff negotiations, which may influence market dynamics [2]. - The recent monetary policy adjustments, including interest rate cuts, have not met market expectations, leading to a steepening of the bond market curve [2]. - The bond market remains optimistic due to the anticipated decline in funding rates and the upcoming deposit rate cuts, while the progress in US-China trade talks introduces uncertainty [2]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The 5-year local government bond ETF primarily invests in medium to long-term local government bonds, making it suitable for duration management and tactical allocation, offering relatively high yield potential with low credit risk [2].

Group 1 - The yield curve showed divergence last week, with a notable decline in the short to medium term and a slight increase in the long end [1] - The central bank announced a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut and interest rate reduction, leading to a more relaxed liquidity environment that directly benefits the short to medium term [1] - Following the RRR and interest rate cuts, some institutions began to take profits on long-term bonds, compounded by positive developments in US-China trade negotiations and favorable tourism and export data for May Day [1] Group 2 - The central tendency of funding rates is expected to decline, which will continue to support the bond market, with yields likely to experience strong fluctuations at low levels [1] - In the medium term, as the central tendency of funding rates decreases, yields are expected to break through previous lows [1] - The government bond ETF (511520) saw a net inflow of over 1.6 billion in the past 10 days, with a total scale exceeding 46.2 billion, making it the largest bond ETF in the market [1]

固收周度点评 20250511 货币政策的增量信号 2025 年 05 月 11 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：谭逸鸣 研究助理：何楠飞 执业证号：S0100522030001 执业证号：S0100123070014 邮箱：tanyiming@mszq.com 邮箱：henanfei@mszq.com 5/8，债市全线走强，曲线牛陡。早盘降息落地，带动资金利率显著下行， 提振债市做多热情。日内股市走强对债市形成一定压制，涨幅一度收窄，但资金 利率的破位下行对债牛形成较强支撑。当日 1Y、5Y、10Y、30Y 国债收益率分别 变动-3.3、-1.5、-0.9、-1BP 至 1.41%、1.5%、1.63%、1.84%。 5/9，债市未能延续昨日涨势。资金仍延续平稳宽松态势，但或受止盈情绪 影响，叠加午后权益市场走强、关税博弈下 4 月出口增速环比回落但仍显韧性， 债市演绎调整行情。当日 1Y、5Y、10Y、30Y 国债收益率分别变动 0.4、-0.5、 0.2、0.5BP 至 1.42%、1.5%、1.64%、1.84%。 ➢ "双降"落地，曲线走陡 本周（5/6-5/9）债市震荡走强。5/7"双降 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's monetary policy focus has shifted towards stabilizing growth, reducing the likelihood of significant adjustments in the bond market similar to Q1 2025, while presenting opportunities for capital gains in the bond market [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The Q1 2025 monetary policy report shows minimal changes in wording compared to Q4 2024, but clear shifts in the central bank's stance are evident [1] - The main narrative for the bond market moving forward is expected to be "increased external pressure → prioritization of stable growth → reduction in money market and deposit rates → downward shift in bond yield curve" [1] - Two significant changes in monetary policy tools were noted: the suspension of government bond purchases on January 10 and the modification of MLF operations on March 24 to fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multi-price bidding [1][2] Group 2: Government Bond Operations - The central bank's suspension of government bond purchases is described as "temporary," with plans to resume based on market supply and demand conditions [2] - This suspension reduces the interest rate risk associated with holding government bonds, suggesting a likelihood of resuming purchases if rates rise significantly for macroprudential reasons [2] Group 3: MLF Operation Reform - The central bank has clarified that MLF will transition from a policy interest rate tool back to a liquidity provision tool [3] - The recent announcement on May 7 regarding reserve requirement ratio cuts and new structural tools indicates a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy stance [3] Group 4: Insights from the Q1 2025 Monetary Policy Report - The Q1 2025 report introduced six sections instead of the usual four, providing additional insights into policy assessments [4] - Section 4 emphasizes the need for improved management of interest rate risks for investors, indicating significant macroprudential influences on monetary policy execution and bond market operations [4] - Section 5 highlights that China's government debt is supported by assets, suggesting substantial room for fiscal policy expansion, with monetary policy actively complementing fiscal measures [4] - Section 6 addresses the imbalance between strong supply and weak demand in the real economy, indicating that future monetary policy will likely focus on boosting effective demand, particularly in consumer spending and service sectors [4]

截至2025年5月9日 09:56，30年国债ETF博时(511130)上涨0.23%，最新价报113.11元。拉长时间看，截至2025年5月8日，30年国债ETF博时近2周累计上涨 1.10%。流动性方面，30年国债ETF博时盘中换手5.05%，成交3.22亿元。拉长时间看，截至5月8日，30年国债ETF博时近1月日均成交27.31亿元。 2025年5月7日，国务院新闻办公室在北京举行新闻发布会，介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，并答记者问。 开源证券指出，后续随着降准降息落地，以及加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使用，社融存款增速、财政支出增速有望延续上升趋势，推动 现金流量表方向进一步向上。 数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。30年国债ETF博时最新融资买入额达3191.71万元，最新融资余额达4754.85万元。 截至5月8日，30年国债ETF博时近1年净值上涨16.15%，指数债券型基金排名3/378，居于前0.79%。从收益能力看，截至2025年5月8日，30年国债ETF博时自 成立以来，最高单月回报为5.35%，最长连涨月数为4个月，最长连涨涨幅为10.58%，涨跌月数比为9 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 8, 2025, the Guokai ETF (159650) rose by 0.05%, reaching a historical high of 106.72 yuan, with a trading volume of 8.14 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 26.92% [3] - Over the past week, the average daily trading volume of the Guokai ETF was 10.74 billion yuan [3] - The Guokai ETF has seen a net inflow of 87.63 million yuan over the last seven trading days [4] Group 2: Policy Impact - The People's Bank of China announced a series of monetary policy measures, including interest rate cuts and the expansion of structural tools, which exceeded market expectations [3] - Following the policy rate cuts, the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and deposit rates are expected to decline, stabilizing bank interest margins [3] Group 3: Fund Performance - The Guokai ETF's net asset value increased by 5.53% over the past two years, with a historical monthly gain probability of 87.88% [4] - The fund has experienced a maximum drawdown of 0.43% this year, which is the smallest among comparable funds [5] - The management fee for the Guokai ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, making it the lowest among comparable funds [5]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing fluctuations with a potential strengthening trend in credit bonds as leverage levels may gradually recover due to low funding costs [1][7]. Market Performance - On May 7, the bond market showed weakness, with government bond futures closing down across the board. The 30-year main contract fell by 0.62%, while the 10-year main contract decreased by 0.19% [2]. - The yield on the 10-year government bond increased by 1.25 basis points to 1.7075%, and the 30-year government bond yield rose by 2.7 basis points to 1.89% [2]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 1,955 billion yuan at a rate of 1.50%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 3,353 billion yuan for the day [5]. - The Shibor rates for overnight and 7-day terms decreased by 4.5 basis points and 4.6 basis points, respectively, indicating a continued easing of funding conditions [5]. Institutional Insights - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that the bond market may see increased volatility in May and June, with a higher probability of interest rates breaking lower [7]. - Guosheng Fixed Income anticipates a gradual recovery in market leverage, with credit bonds likely to strengthen from the short end [7]. - Huachuang Securities emphasizes the importance of the trend in secondary market repurchase rates, predicting a narrowing of the yield curve as funding rates approach 1.4% [7].