2025年05月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：多PX空PTA | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：基差持续上涨，多PX空PTA | 2 | | MEG：持续去库，但盘面上方空间有限，多PTA空MEG | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏弱 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：弱势运行 | 7 | | 沥青：华南降价，震荡偏弱 | 9 | | LLDPE：偏弱运行 | 12 | | PP：价格小跌，成交一般 | 14 | | 烧碱：暂时是震荡市 | 15 | | 纸浆：震荡偏强 | 17 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 19 | | 甲醇：短期震荡，中期趋势仍偏弱 | 20 | | 尿素：内需偏弱，出口支撑，震荡运行 | 22 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 24 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 26 | | LPG：民用气走弱，近端价格承压 | 27 | | PVC：偏弱运行 | 30 | | 燃料油：夜盘大幅回跌，短期重回震荡走势 | 32 | | 低硫燃料油：跟随原油下探，外盘现货高低硫价差继续收窄 | 32 | | 集运指数（欧线）：近月高位震荡，10-12反套持 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - Styrene: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - PX: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - PTA: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - Short Fiber: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - Bottle Chip: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - Methanol: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - Urea: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - PVC: One green star, representing a bearish trend with limited trading operability [1][7] - Caustic Soda: One red star, representing a bullish trend with limited trading operability [1][7] - Glass: One green star, representing a bearish trend with limited trading operability [1][8] - Soda Ash: One green star, representing a bearish trend with limited trading operability [1][8] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows a complex situation with different trends for various products. Some products face supply - demand imbalances, cost changes, and seasonal factors that affect their prices and market outlooks [2][3][4][5][6][7][8] Summary by Product Methanol - The methanol market is expected to be weak. Coastal olefin plant utilization has increased, but imports have led to port inventory accumulation. Coal prices are falling, and domestic production is high, with post - holiday inventory build - up expected [2] Urea - Urea futures prices are falling. Agricultural demand is scattered, and compound fertilizer production is decreasing. Exports are becoming clearer, and production enterprises have large inventory accumulations. The short - term market will be weakly volatile [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures rose slightly. Macro news has boosted market sentiment, but polyethylene demand is in the off - season, and the polypropylene market is in a state of low supply and demand [4] Polyesters - The polyester industry has different trends. PX and PTA prices rebounded, but PX supply - demand is weakening. Ethylene glycol prices followed the rebound but face future pressure. Short - fiber prices rebounded, and bottle chips are in the peak season [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices are falling due to cost reduction and supply - demand imbalance. There is new production expected in June, and exports may weaken. Caustic soda inventory is decreasing, but demand is not strong, and prices are under pressure [7] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices are falling due to high inventory and upcoming rainy seasons. Soda ash prices are also falling, with inventory pressure and expected supply increase [8]

Group 1 - The recent decline in European shipping futures is attributed to three main reasons: insufficient price increases in the spot market, macroeconomic disturbances, and a temporary easing of supply-demand fundamentals [2][3][5] - Shipping companies attempted to raise prices on the European route, but the market remains skeptical about the effectiveness of these increases, especially after a price cut on May 27 [2] - The European Union has lowered its economic growth forecast for the Eurozone, which dampens expectations for import demand, compounded by ongoing trade policy uncertainties from the U.S. [3] Group 2 - The end of the rush period for U.S. shipping has led to a slowdown in inventory replenishment by cargo owners, resulting in a return of capacity that was previously diverted to the European route [4] - On the supply side, a significant increase in U.S. shipping cancellations in May has led to a reallocation of capacity to the European route, increasing supply [5] - The traditional retail inventory replenishment season in Europe has not yet started, leading to a current market characterized by "high prices but low activity" [5] Group 3 - Future attention should be focused on the Red Sea detour ratio, which remains above 75%, as this detour reduces effective capacity by about 30%, providing support for price floors [6] - If the situation in the Red Sea worsens or if trade policies in Europe and the U.S. ease, prices could potentially break previous highs [6] - The current shipping index for Europe is in a phase of "macroeconomic expectation adjustment" and "seasonal industry competition," necessitating close monitoring of shipping companies' pricing strategies and geopolitical developments [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply - The planned domestic asphalt production in May 2025 is 2.318 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. The sample capacity utilization rate this week is 31.6994%, a decrease of 3.30 percentage points. Sample enterprise output is 529,000 tons, a decrease of 9.41%. Refineries have reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - Demand - The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 30.8%, a decrease of 0.10 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged; the modified asphalt开工率 is 12.332%, an increase of 1.07 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 31%, an increase of 4.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 36.8%, an increase of 2.50 percentage points [7]. - Cost - The daily asphalt processing profit is 0.05 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7. The profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased by 48.58%. Crude oil has weakened, and cost support is expected to weaken in the short term [7]. - Inventory - Social inventory is 1.346 million tons, a decrease of 2.53%; factory inventory is 826,000 tons, a decrease of 5.27%; port diluted asphalt inventory is 17,000 tons, an increase of 54.55%. Social and factory inventories are continuously decreasing [7]. - Market Outlook - The market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3455 - 3507 in the short term. There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factor is that the relatively high price of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand [7][9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Analysis** - In May 2025, the planned asphalt production increased, but the capacity utilization rate decreased this week. Sample enterprise output decreased, and refineries reduced production to relieve supply pressure, with potential pressure increase next week [7]. - **Demand Analysis** - The current demand is lower than the historical average, with different trends in the开工率 of various types of asphalt [7]. - **Cost Analysis** - Crude oil weakened, and the cost support for asphalt is expected to weaken in the short term. The asphalt processing profit decreased, and the profit difference with delayed coking increased [7]. - **Inventory Analysis** - Social and factory inventories are continuously decreasing, while port diluted asphalt inventory is increasing [7]. - **Market Outlook** - The market is expected to have a narrow - range fluctuation in the short term, affected by positive factors such as relatively high crude oil prices and negative factors like weak demand [7][9][10]. 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - **Market Overview** - Presented data on various contracts' prices, inventory,开工率, etc. For example, the prices of different contracts showed different trends, and inventory and开工率 data also changed significantly [14]. - **Price and Spread Analysis** - Included the analysis of basis,主力合约价差, asphalt - crude oil price spread, and the ratio of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil. These data reflect the relative price relationships in the market [16][19][22][29]. - **Profit Analysis** - Analyzed asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt, showing the profitability of asphalt production [36][39]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - Covered aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume,开工率, and maintenance loss on the supply side. These data reflect the production and supply capacity of asphalt [42][44][47]. - **Inventory Analysis** - Analyzed exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory ratio, reflecting the inventory status of asphalt [63][68][71]. - **Import and Export Analysis** - Presented the trends of asphalt export and import, as well as the import price spread of South Korean asphalt [74][77]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - Analyzed aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction, downstream machinery demand, and asphalt开工率), reflecting the demand situation of asphalt [80][83][86]. - **Supply - Demand Balance** - Provided a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data [106].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 29 日 对二甲苯：多 PX 空 PTA PTA：聚酯加大减产力度，多 PX 空 PTA MEG：单边逢高空，多 PTA 空 MEG 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-05-28 | 6590 | 4672 | 4311 | 6386 | 3469 | | 2025-05-27 | 6706 | 4740 | 4387 | 6456 | 3512 | | 2025-05-26 | 6674 | 4724 | 4393 | 6430 | 3530 | | 2025-05-23 | 6652 | 4716 | 4403 | 6450 | 3508 | | 2025-05-22 | 6614 | 4702 | 4411 | 6452 | 3505 | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年5月28日 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：中美谈判取得进展，互降关税。USDA5月报：25/26年度产量下降，消费增 加，期末库存不变。海关：4月纺织品服装出口241.9亿美元，同比增1.5%。4月份我国 棉花进口6万吨，同比减少82.2%；棉纱进口12万吨，同比减少1.4%。农村部4月24/25 年度：产量616万吨，进口150万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存831万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14595，基差1265（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：中国农业部24/25年度4月预计期末库存831万吨；偏空。 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方，偏多。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏空，净持仓空增，主力趋势偏空；偏空。 6：预期：中美谈判互降关税，90天窗口期，外贸纺织企业启动抢出口生产，郑棉主力 09短期反弹至前期缺口附近，上方卖压增加，进一步上冲动力减弱，短期维持13200- 13500区间横盘整理。 大越期货投资咨询部 ...

2025 年 5 月 28 日 燃料油：日盘跌势延续，短期偏弱震荡 低硫燃料油：夜盘大幅下跌，外盘现货高低硫 价差走强 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | | 日 涨跌 | 昨日结算价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2507 | 元/吨 | 2.972 | | -2. 14% | 2.982 | 0. 34% | | | | FU2508 | 元/吨 | 2.982 | | -0.53% | 2.886 | -3.22% | | | | LU2507 | 元/吨 | 3.512 | | -0. 51% | 3.505 | -0. 20% | | | | LU2508 | 元/吨 | 3.505 | | -0. 14% | 3, 439 | -1.88% | | | | | | 昨日成交 | | 成交变动 | 昨日特仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 期货 | FU2507 ...

2025年05月28日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：多PX空PTA | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：长丝检修落地，多PX空PTA | 2 | | MEG：单边逢高空，多PTA空MEG | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏弱 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：弱势运行 | 6 | | 沥青：区间震荡，出货转淡 | 8 | | LLDPE：偏弱运行 | 10 | | PP：价格小跌，成交一般 | 12 | | 烧碱：后期仍有压力 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：弱势运行 | 18 | | 尿素：内需偏弱，出口支撑，震荡运行 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 24 | | LPG：民用气继续企稳，盘面支撑走强 | 25 | | PVC：偏弱运行 | 28 | | 燃料油：日盘跌势延续，短期偏弱震荡 | 30 | | 低硫燃料油：夜盘大幅下跌，外盘现货高低硫价差走强 | 30 | | 集运指数（欧线）：高位震荡，10-12反套持有 | 31 | | 短纤：短期震荡市 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 5 月 27日） 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 区间震荡 | 短期继续降息可能性较低 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各国债期货均延续震荡走势，全天窄幅整理。中长期来看，政策面适度宽松，目前的 国债价格基本没有隐含的降息预期，国债期货底部具备较强支撑。另外由于国内政策面效果需要等待 经济指标验证，当前国内实体部门的信贷需求偏弱，而海外美联储货币政策鹰派对汇率端有所抑制， 短期内国内继续降息的可能性较低，国债期货上行空间受限。总的来说，预计短期内国债期货保持震 荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年5月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：中美谈判取得进展，互降关税。USDA5月报：25/26年度产量下降，消费增 加，期末库存不变。海关：4月纺织品服装出口241.9亿美元，同比增1.5%。4月份我国 棉花进口6万吨，同比减少82.2%；棉纱进口12万吨，同比减少1.4%。农村部4月24/25 年度：产量616万吨，进口150万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存831万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14606，基差1221（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：中国农业部24/25年度4月预计期末库存831万吨；偏空。 4、盘 ...