Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market has support and pressure in the near term. There is continuous pressure from new cotton supply, but yarn mills are actively replenishing stocks. In the long - term, it depends on policies and weather. Strategies include selling high and buying back the spread between January and May contracts and going long on far - month contracts at low prices [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Data Domestic Cotton Futures - CF01 on November 26 was 13625, down 20 (-0.15%) from November 25; CF05 was 13585, up 5 (0.04%); CF01 - 05 was 40, down 25 [3] Domestic Cotton Spot - In Xinjiang on November 26, it was 14700, up 101 (0.69%); in Henan, 14896, up 48 (0.32%); in Shandong, 14951, up 41 (0.27%); Xinjiang - main contract basis was 1075, up 121 [3] Domestic Yarn Futures and Spot - Domestic yarn futures CY on November 26 was 20070, up 5 (0.02%); domestic yarn spot C32S price index was 20660, unchanged (0.00%) [3] US Cotton Spot - US cotton spot CT was 64 (USD/ pound), unchanged; the arrival price was 73.30, up 0.3 (0.41%); 1% quota delivery price was 12830, up 51 (0.40%); sliding - scale duty delivery price was 13868, up 31 (0.22%) [3] Spread Data - Yarn - cotton spread (futures) was 6445, up 25; yarn - cotton spread (spot) was 1038, down 20; the spot internal - external spread was 2121, down 10 [3][4]

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is titled "Sugar Data Daily" by ITG Guomao Futures [3] - The report date is November 27, 2025 [4] - The analyst is Xie Wei with futures qualification number F03087820 and investment consulting number Z0019508 [4] Group 2: Market Data Domestic Sugar Market - In Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi, the price on November 26, 2025, was 5615 yuan, with no change, and the basis to 2601 was 236, up 8 [4] - In Rizhao, Shandong, the price was 5800 yuan, with no change, and the basis to 2601 was 321, up 8 [4] - SR01 price was 5379 yuan, down 8; SR05 price was 5309 yuan, down 16; SR01 - 05 spread was 70, up 8 [4] International Market - The exchange rate of RMB to USD was 7.1018, down 0.0166; the exchange rate of Brazilian Real to RMB was 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of Indian Rupee to RMB was 0.084, down 0.0004 [4] - ICE raw sugar主力 price was 14.9, unchanged; London white sugar主力 price was 573, up 3; Brent crude oil主力 price was 61.9, unchanged [4] Group 3: Core Viewpoint - The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, putting pressure on raw sugar prices to decline. The supply pressure of domestic new crops has increased year - on - year. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will face upward pressure and mainly follow the trend of raw sugar [4] Group 4: Other Data - The domestic sugar industrial inventory and Brazilian sugar out - of - quota import profit data are presented, with the import profit at 2000 [4] - Graphs show historical data of Liuzhou - 01 basis and Zhengzhou sugar 1 - 5 month spread [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **PTA**: TA maintains a high - maintenance state, downstream shows no obvious pressure, India revokes BIS certification, so TA's inventory accumulation slope is not high, and the cost - end PX has a good pattern. Attention should be paid to the opportunities of going long in the positive spread at low prices and expanding processing fees [3]. - **MEG**: With supply reduction and high - opening of polyester, the inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down. The coal - making efficiency is at a low level, and the valuation compression space may be limited. Short - term selling of put options can be considered, while the long - term pattern is expected to be weak due to new device launches and warehouse receipt pressure [6]. - **Polyester Short Fiber**: In the short term, the inventory pressure is limited, but in the long term, as the downstream enters the off - season and new device launches are approaching, the pattern may weaken. The current processing fee is relatively neutral, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [6]. - **Natural Rubber**: The national explicit inventory is stable at a non - high level, and the Thai cup - rubber price is stable with rainfall affecting tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [9]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price Changes**: Naphtha price changes from 62.5 to 63.4, PX CFR Taiwan from 558 to 573, PTA inner - market spot from 824 to 833, etc. The PTA spot average daily trading basis is 2601(-34) [3]. - **Device Changes**: Honggang's 2.5 - million - ton device restarts. Some proximal TA devices are under maintenance, the start - up rate decreases, polyester load rises, inventory decreases, basis strengthens slightly, and spot processing fees improve [3]. MEG - **Price Changes**: Northeast Asia ethylene price remains at 730, MEG outer - market price from 452 to 463, etc. The MEG spot basis is around +13 for 01 [6]. - **Device Changes**: Hongsifang's 300,000 - ton device restarts; Sinochem Quanzhou's 500,000 - ton device is under maintenance. Proximal domestic oil - making increases load, coal - making has some maintenance and load reduction, overall start - up decreases, overseas device restart is postponed, port inventory accumulates [6]. Polyester Short Fiber - **Price Changes**: 1.4D cotton - type short - fiber price changes from 6340 to 6385, etc. The spot price is around 6315, and the market basis is around - 100 for 01 [6]. - **Device and Market Situation**: The device operation is stable, the start - up rate is maintained at 97.5%, sales improve slightly, and inventory is basically flat. The downstream demand is stable, but in the long term, the pattern may weaken [6]. Natural Rubber - **Price Changes**: The price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber changes from 1815 to 1825, and the weekly change is - 25. There are also various price spreads and processing profit changes [9]. - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory is stable, Thai cup - rubber price is stable, and rainfall affects tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [9]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: Ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remains at 730, pure benzene (CFR China) from 660 to 685, etc. There are also changes in domestic profits of styrene and its downstream products [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is neutral [4][9] Core Viewpoint - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, the domestic inventory is decreasing, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4] Summary by Directory Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to decrease, and tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is high [4][6] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2023 full latex (non - deliverable) decreased on November 26th, and the spot price is resistant to decline [8][6] - **Inventory**: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and year - on - year. There is seasonal cancellation of exchange inventory warrants [4][14] - **Import**: The import volume has declined [20] - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising, tire production is at a record high for the same period, but tire industry exports are declining [23][29][32] Basis - The spot price is 14,650, and the basis is - 545, showing a bearish signal. The basis weakened on November 26th [4][35] Long - Short Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - **Likely to Fall**: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run in a relatively strong manner on December 1, 2025. Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber will maintain a volatile trend in the short - term (within a week) and medium - term (two weeks to one month), and show a relatively strong trend during the day [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Trend**: The short - term and medium - term trends are volatile, and the intraday trend is relatively strong. The reference view is a relatively strong operation [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: As domestic natural rubber producing areas in Yunnan and Hainan are approaching the off - season, the supply of domestic full - latex is expected to decline. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic. However, the macro sentiment has weakened due to the poor US non - farm payrolls data in September. There is a divergence between bulls and bears in the short - term rubber market. On the night of Wednesday, Shanghai rubber futures stabilized in a volatile manner with a slight rebound. It is expected to maintain a volatile and relatively strong trend on Thursday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Trend**: The short - term and medium - term trends are volatile, and the intraday trend is relatively strong. The reference view is a relatively strong operation [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: The recent macro sentiment is acceptable. The slight decline of domestic and international crude oil futures on the night of Thursday has weakened the rebound momentum of synthetic rubber futures. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the synthetic rubber market has shifted from "expectation - driven" to "reality - dominated". Driven by the stable rebound of domestic and international crude oil futures prices, synthetic rubber futures showed a volatile and stable trend on the night of Wednesday with a slight increase. It is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend on Thursday [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The steel price of rebar 2601 is expected to continue the low - level oscillatory operation, with a short - term, medium - term, and intraday view of oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation on the weak side respectively, and an overall view of oscillation on the weak side due to weak fundamentals [1]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is oscillation on the weak side, and the overall view is oscillation on the weak side. The core logic is that the fundamentals are weak and the steel price is oscillating at a low level [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed little. Construction steel mills have resumed production, leading to an increase in output and relatively high inventory, so supply pressure still exists. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar has improved with a month - on - month increase in high - frequency demand indicators, but the sustainability is questionable. The downstream industries are still weak, and demand is expected to decline seasonally, dragging down the steel price. Although the steel price has oscillated and rebounded recently, the demand is weakening and supply is increasing, putting pressure on the steel price. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: The trading of high - yield margins weakens, and there is a technical rebound [2][4] - Soybean oil: Mainly in a range - bound oscillation, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil should be widened [2][4] - Soybean meal: During the roll - over period, it may still be mainly in a range - bound oscillation [2][10] - Soybean: The spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates [2][10] - Corn: Oscillating with an upward bias [2][13] - Sugar: Pay attention to the new sugar price quotes [2][17] - Cotton: Pay attention to the trend of the spot basis [2][22] - Eggs: The volume of culled chickens increases, providing expected support [2][28] - Pigs: The inventory reduction node is approaching, and the near - term pressure is increasing [2][30] - Peanuts: Pay attention to the spot market [2][34] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil 3.1.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures: Palm oil's closing price (day session) was 8,440 yuan/ton with a 0.96% increase, and (night session) 8,416 yuan/ton with a - 0.28% decrease; soybean oil's closing price (day session) was 8,150 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase, and (night session) 8,150 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change [5] - Spot: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) was 8,290 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; first - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) was 8,470 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [5] - Basis: Palm oil (Guangdong) was - 150 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) was 320 yuan/ton [5] - Spread: The spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 290 yuan/ton [5] 3.1.2 Macro and Industry News - From November 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area increased by 3.34% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.41% month - on - month, and the production increased by 5.49% month - on - month [6] 3.1.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0 [9] 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean 3.2.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures: DCE soybean 2601's closing price (day session) was 4094 yuan/ton with a - 0.56% decrease, and (night session) 4098 yuan/ton with a - 0.12% decrease; DCE soybean meal 2601's closing price (day session) was 3015 yuan/ton with a + 0.20% increase, and (night session) 3013 yuan/ton with a - 0.26% decrease [10] - Spot: In Shandong, the price of soybean meal (43%) was 3030 - 3100 yuan/ton, remaining flat or increasing by 30 yuan [10] - Industry Data: The trading volume of soybean meal was 13.65 million tons per day, and the inventory was 105.65 million tons per week [10] 3.2.2 Macro and Industry News - On November 26, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher due to Chinese procurement demand. Since October, China has purchased about 350 million tons of US soybeans, about 30% of the 1200 - million - ton target [10][11][12] 3.2.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean is 0 [12] 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures: C2601's closing price (day session) was 2,235 yuan/ton with a 0.22% increase, and (night session) 2,234 yuan/ton with a - 0.04% decrease; C2603's closing price (day session) was 2,232 yuan/ton with a 1.00% increase, and (night session) 2,233 yuan/ton with a 0.04% increase [14] - Spot: The price in Guangdong Shekou was 2,440 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [14] - Basis: The main 01 basis was 5 yuan/ton [14] 3.3.2 Macro and Industry News - The northern corn bulk shipping port price increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong Shekou price increased by 30 yuan/ton [15] 3.3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of corn is 0 [16] 3.4 Sugar 3.4.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures: The futures main price was 5379 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [17] - Spot: The mainstream spot price was 5640 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [17] - Basis: The mainstream spot basis was 261 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [17] 3.4.2 Macro and Industry News - The 25/26 Indian sugar export quota is 150 million tons. Brazil's October sugar production increased by 1% year - on - year, and exports increased by 13% year - on - year. China's October sugar imports were 75 million tons (+ 21 million tons) [17] 3.4.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of sugar is 0 [20] 3.5 Cotton 3.5.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures: CF2601's closing price (day session) was 13,625 yuan/ton with a - 0.15% decrease, and (night session) 13645 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase; CY2601's closing price (day session) was 20,070 yuan/ton with a 0.02% increase, and (night session) 20090 yuan/ton with a 0.10% increase [22] - Spot: The price of northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,536 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [22] - Basis: The northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton - CF601 basis was 910 yuan/ton [22] 3.5.2 Macro and Industry News - The domestic cotton spot trading was stable, with spinning mills mainly making rigid - demand purchases. ICE cotton futures continued to rebound due to the rising expectation of US interest rate cuts [23][24] 3.5.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0 [25] 3.6 Eggs 3.6.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures: The closing price of eggs 2512 was 2,919 yuan/500 kg with a - 0.31% decrease; the closing price of eggs 2601 was 3,549 yuan/500 kg with a 0.22% increase [28] - Spot: The Liaoning spot price was 2.90 yuan/jin [28] 3.6.2 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of eggs is 0 [28] 3.7 Pigs 3.7.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures: The price of pigs 2601 was 11540 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; the price of pigs 2603 was 11365 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the price of pigs 2605 was 12060 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan [31] - Spot: The Henan spot price was 11430 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [31] - Basis: The pigs 2601 basis was - 110 yuan/ton [31] 3.7.2 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of pigs is - 1 [32] 3.8 Peanuts 3.8.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures: PK601's closing price was 8,186 yuan/ton with a 3.99% increase; PK603's closing price was 8,176 yuan/ton with a 3.73% increase [34] - Spot: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 9,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [34] - Basis: The Liaoning 308 common peanut basis was 1,624 yuan/ton [34] 3.8.2 Spot Market Focus - In Henan, the price of Huangludian white - sand common peanuts was about 3.9 yuan/jin, and the price of Xinxiang large peanuts was about 4.2 yuan/jin [35] 3.8.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of peanuts is 0 [36]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The upward space for the 01 contract is limited as the import volume in December is expected to remain high, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction and high port inventory of methanol cannot be resolved in the 01 contract. It is recommended to continue holding the short - put position on the 01 contract and not to chase the high price [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2067 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.48%); MA05 closed at 2188 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.45%); MA09 closed at 2219 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.14%) [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Prices in different regions showed mixed trends. For example, in Shandong, it increased by 17.50 yuan/ton (0.81%), while in Guangdong, it decreased by 5.00 yuan/ton (-0.25%) [1]. - **Price Differences**: The difference between Taicang spot and MA was - 12.00 yuan/ton, up 7.50 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. 3.2 Upstream Costs - **Coal Spot Prices**: The prices of Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 615 yuan/ton, 690 yuan/ton, and 690 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.16 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. 3.3 Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: The profit of coal - based methanol increased by 70.00 yuan/ton (94.59%) to 144.00 yuan/ton, while the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained unchanged at - 1330.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Downstream Profits**: The profit of acetic acid increased by 32.97 yuan/ton (6.47%), while the profits of MTBE, formaldehyde, and other downstream products decreased [1]. 3.4 Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated within a narrow range, opening at 2075 yuan/ton, closing at 2067 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1.276 million lots and a position of 1.2004 million lots, showing a decrease in volume and position [1]. - **Foreign Information**: Two methanol plants with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country are under maintenance, and another plant with a capacity of 1.65 million tons is also planned to be shut down for maintenance soon [1]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - Continue to hold the short - put position on the 01 contract (viewpoint score: 0) [1].

Industry Investment Ratings - Thread Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled Coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★★★ [1] - Coking Coal: ★★★ [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★★★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is mainly in a range-bound oscillation, with the demand being weak and the supply pressure gradually easing [2] - The iron ore market is expected to oscillate, with a generally loose fundamental situation but short-term liquidity disturbances in some ore types [3] - The coke market is likely to show a weak oscillation, with general coking profits and a continuous slight decline in daily production [4] - The coking coal market may experience a weak oscillation, with a slight decrease in production and a general terminal market [5] - The silicon manganese market has a downward shift in the expected bottom support, with an increase in the expected coal mine supply guarantee [6] - The ferrosilicon market has the bottom support strength facing a test, with an increase in the expected coal mine supply guarantee and a decline in export demand [7] Summary by Category Steel - The steel futures market oscillated today, with an improvement in the apparent demand for thread steel and a slight increase in the demand for hot-rolled coils [2] - The downstream acceptance capacity is insufficient, and steel mills continue to operate at a loss, with a high possibility of further blast furnace production cuts in the future [2] - The overall domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports have declined from their highs, with the spot prices remaining relatively firm [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market oscillated today, with a decline in global shipments but still stronger than the same period, and a rebound in domestic arrivals to a high for the year [3] - The demand for steel is at a low level, and ironmaking is in a seasonal production cut trend, with a slowdown in the production cut speed [3] - The iron ore fundamentals are generally loose, but some ore types may still experience short-term liquidity disturbances [3] Coke - The coke futures market oscillated today, with general coking profits and a continuous slight decline in daily production [4] - The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory has increased slightly, with the overall market supply being abundant [4] - The coke market is expected to show a weak oscillation, with attention paid to the impact of environmental protection policies [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures market showed a weak oscillation today, with a slight decrease in production and a general terminal market [5] - The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory has decreased slightly, with the overall market supply being abundant [5] - The coking coal market is expected to experience a weak oscillation, with attention paid to the impact of environmental protection policies [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese futures market oscillated today, with an increase in the expected coal mine supply guarantee and a decline in the expected power cost and chemical coke price [6] - The demand for silicon manganese is at a high level, and the inventory has increased slowly, with the overall market supply being abundant [6] - The silicon manganese market has a downward shift in the expected bottom support, with attention paid to the impact of policy changes [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures market oscillated today, with an increase in the expected coal mine supply guarantee and a decline in the expected power cost and blue coke price [7] - The export demand for ferrosilicon has declined, and the secondary demand has increased marginally, with the overall demand still showing resilience [7] - The ferrosilicon market has the bottom support strength facing a test, with attention paid to the impact of policy changes [7]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 11 月 26 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 现实格局弱稳，钢矿延续震荡 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.06%日跌幅，移仓换月中，量仓收 缩。现阶段，移仓换月叠加仓单偏低，短期利多支撑钢价低位回升，但 需求将季节性走弱，而供应有所增加，基本面并无实质性改善，钢价继 续承压，上行驱动不强，预计钢价延续低位震荡运行态势，关注需求表 现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.03%日跌幅，移仓换月中，量仓 收缩。目前来看，市场情绪回暖，而热卷供需格局有所 ...