1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports [1][4][6] 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Post - holiday apparent demand for steel has recovered, but there was significant pre - holiday slab inventory accumulation, requiring steel mills to cut production to ease inventory pressure. The price decline has factored in most of the oversupply expectations. The cost of carbon elements on the cost side is supported, while the cost of iron elements may decline due to the expected drop in hot metal. Steel prices have fallen significantly, compressing steel mill profits. Unilateral positions should be on hold. The January contracts for rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to stabilize around 3000 and 3200 yuan respectively and enter a sideways consolidation phase. Consider a long - carbon and short - iron arbitrage, specifically a long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil strategy. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is expected to continue to narrow [1] Iron Ore Industry - Last week, iron ore futures continued to decline in a sideways pattern. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased week - on - week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased. Based on recent shipment data, the average future arrival volume is expected to decline. On the demand side, the steel mill profit margin slightly decreased, hot metal production dropped from its peak, and the steel mill restocking demand weakened. The iron ore market is shifting from a state of tight balance to oversupply, and weak finished product prices are dragging down raw materials. Unilateral positions should be on hold, with a reference range of 730 - 800. An arbitrage strategy of long - coking coal and short - iron ore is recommended, and consider buying out - of - the - money put options on Iron Ore 2601 at high prices [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Last week, coke futures rose in a sideways pattern. Recently, the spot and futures markets have not been in sync, with port trade quotes rebounding, and on the 17th, major coking enterprises proposed a second price increase. The coking industry's price adjustment lags behind that of coking coal, leading to losses and a decline in coking plant operations. On the demand side, steel mill hot metal production has dropped from its peak, steel prices are weak, and steel mill profits are shrinking. The overall inventory is slightly lower than the mid - level, and it is a passive destocking by downstream. Speculative investors are advised to go long on Coke 2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800, and consider a long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [6] - Last week, coking coal futures rose in a sideways pattern. The spot auction prices in Shanxi have recovered, and some coal types have significantly rebounded. The coking coal price shows signs of bottoming out. On the supply side, major coal - producing areas have resumed production after the holiday, but recent mine accidents have led to expectations of supply reduction. On the demand side, hot metal production has slightly declined, and coking plant operations have slightly decreased but remain at a relatively high level. The overall inventory is slightly lower than the mid - level, and downstream has started active restocking. Unilateral positions should be long on Coking Coal 2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300, and consider a long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3200, 3110, and 3220 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of + 10, - 10, and - 10 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3270, 3190, and 3220 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10, 0, and - 10 yuan/ton [1] Cost and Profit - The billet price was 2920 yuan/ton with no change, and the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton with no change. The cost of electric - arc furnace rebar in Jiangsu decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 3300 yuan/ton, while the cost of converter rebar increased by 13 yuan/ton to 3153 yuan/ton. Profits in different regions and for different products showed various changes [1] Production - The daily average hot metal production was 240.9 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons (- 0.3%). The production of five major steel products was 857.0 tons, a decrease of 6.4 tons (- 0.7%). Rebar production was 201.2 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons (- 1.1%), with electric - arc furnace production increasing by 3.1 tons (13.5%) and converter production decreasing by 5.4 tons (- 3.0%). Hot - rolled coil production was 321.8 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons (- 0.4%) [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products was 1582.3 tons, a decrease of 18.5 tons (- 1.2%). Rebar inventory was 641.1 tons, a decrease of 18.6 tons (- 2.8%), and hot - rolled coil inventory was 419.2 tons, an increase of 6.3 tons (1.5%) [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume was 9.5 tons, a decrease of 0.7 tons (- 6.7%). The apparent demand for five major steel products was 875.4 tons, an increase of 124.0 tons (16.5%). The apparent demand for rebar was 219.8 tons, an increase of 66.6 tons (43.5%), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 315.6 tons, an increase of 20.5 tons (7.0%) [1] Iron Ore Industry Price and Spread - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore powders showed slight changes. The basis of the 01 contract for different powders also changed, with the 5 - 9 spread increasing by 0.5 yuan/ton (2.4%), the 9 - 1 spread remaining unchanged, and the 1 - 5 spread decreasing by 0.5 yuan/ton (- 2.3%) [4] Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports (weekly) was 3045.8 tons, an increase of 437.1 tons (16.8%). The global shipment volume (weekly) was 3207.5 tons, a decrease of 71.5 tons (- 2.2%). The national monthly import volume was 10522.5 tons, an increase of 61.5 tons (0.6%) [4] Demand - The average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 241.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons (- 0.2%). The average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports (weekly) was 315.7 tons, a decrease of 20.7 tons (- 6.1%). The national monthly pig iron production was 6979.3 tons, a decrease of 100.5 tons (- 1.4%), and the national monthly crude steel production was 7736.9 tons, a decrease of 229.0 tons (- 2.9%) [4] Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports (weekly) was 14278.27 tons, an increase of 192.1 tons (1.4%). The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 8982.7 tons, a decrease of 63.5 tons (- 0.7%). The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) remained unchanged at 21 days [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Price and Spread - The prices of different types of coke and coking coal showed various changes. For example, the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1561 yuan/ton, while the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) decreased by 11 yuan/ton to 1603 yuan/ton. The basis and spreads of different contracts also changed [6] Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants was 65.3 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons (- 1.3%). The daily average production of 247 steel mills was 241.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons (- 0.2%). The production of Fenwei sample coal mines increased, with raw coal production increasing by 18.2 tons (2.2%) and clean coal production increasing by 11.8 tons (2.8%) [6] Demand - The hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 241.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons (- 0.2%). The demand for coke and coking coal is affected by steel mill production changes [6] Inventory - The total coke inventory was 891.9 tons, a decrease of 17.9 tons (- 2.0%). The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 6.6 tons (- 10.3%), and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 11.4 tons (- 1.7%). For coking coal, the inventory of Fenwei coal mine clean coal decreased by 11.0 tons (- 9.9%), while the inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 38.3 tons (4.0%) [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For the 2601 contract of coking coal, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is rising, and the reference view is a volatile approach. The core logic is that strong expectations still exist, and coking coal runs strongly [1]. - For the 2601 contract of coke, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is slightly stronger in a volatile state, and the reference view is a volatile approach. The core logic is that strong cost support leads to coke oscillating strongly [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - Production: As of the week ending October 17, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 77.9 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.7 thousand tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.6 thousand tons [5]. - Imports: Since October 8, the Ganqimaodu Port has resumed operations, and the daily number of passing vehicles has returned to around 1100 - 1300 [5]. - Demand: The combined daily average output of coke from sample coking plants and steel mills was 111.23 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.27 thousand tons [5]. - Inventory: As of the week ending October 17, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 997.37 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 38.31 thousand tons, and the coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 788.32 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.19 thousand tons [5]. - Overall: The fundamentals of coking coal lack support, but recent weather in major production areas and anti - involution factors have driven the main coking coal futures contract to maintain a strong and volatile operation [5]. Coke (J) - Production: As of the week ending October 17, the combined daily average output of coke from coking plants and steel mills was 111.23 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.27 thousand tons [6]. - Demand: The daily average output of hot metal from 247 steel mills nationwide was 240.95 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.59 thousand tons [6]. - Inventory: This week, the coke inventories of both upstream and downstream in the industrial chain have decreased. The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 57.29 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.55 thousand tons; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 639.44 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.38 thousand tons [6]. - Overall: The supply and demand of coke have both decreased, with a more obvious reduction on the supply side, and the overall inventory in the industrial chain has declined. The fundamentals are relatively neutral, and the upward driving force mainly comes from the supply support of coking coal on the cost side and the expected policy benefits [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Gold**: The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel, currently possibly at the end of the trend. In the short - term, the market may maintain high - level oscillations. In the long - term, the long - term support factors remain unchanged, and gold has a solid foundation for long - term growth. It is recommended to wait and see in the medium - term, and for the current week, the main gold contract 2512 is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level, and it is advisable to buy on dips [7][8][11]. - **Silver**: The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is in a strong upward stage, currently at the end of the trend. In the short - term, it is necessary to be vigilant against fluctuations caused by high - level profit - taking and the easing of the geopolitical situation. In the long - term, the upward logic remains unchanged, and the silver price is expected to continue the upward trend in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to wait and see in the medium - term, and for the current week, silver is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level, and it is advisable to buy on dips [32][33][37]. 3. Summary by Catalog Gold Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel, currently possibly at the end of the trend [7]. - **Trend Logic**: Last week, the gold price continued to soar under multiple positive factors, but there was an obvious correction on Friday. This week, the market may maintain high - level oscillations. In the long - term, factors such as continuous gold purchases by global central banks, damage to the US dollar credit system, and the continuation of the monetary easing cycle support the long - term rise of gold [7]. - **Mid - line Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: For the gold contract 2512, be vigilant against technical corrections caused by the departure of profit - taking orders, with the lower support level at 898 - 903, and it was recommended to wait and see [10]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The main gold contract 2512 is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the upper resistance level at 985 - 1000 and the lower support level at 950 - 965 [11]. - **Related Data Situation** - Data on the price trends of Shanghai gold and COMEX gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury bond yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference are presented in graphical form [19][22][24] Silver Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is in a strong upward stage, currently at the end of the trend [32]. - **Trend Logic**: Last week, silver reached a phased high, driven by factors such as structural shortages in the London spot market, strengthened expectations of Fed interest rate cuts, continuous reduction of domestic inventories, and increased capital activity. In the long - term, the upward logic remains unchanged, and the silver price is expected to continue the upward trend in the fourth quarter, but short - term fluctuations need attention [32]. - **Mid - line Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [33]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: It was expected that silver would mainly oscillate at a high level, and it was recommended to buy on dips, with the lower support range at 10700 - 11000 [36]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: Silver is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the lower support range at 10940 - 11240 [37]. - **Related Data Situation** - Data on the price trends of Shanghai silver and COMEX silver, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference are presented in graphical form [44][46][48]

期货研究报告 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 10 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡思路 | 政策面扰动不断，焦煤期货震荡 | | | | | | | | 运行 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空交织，焦炭区间震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 may maintain a weak and volatile trend due to the weak supply - demand structure and weak macro - expectations [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 may maintain a stable and volatile trend as the supply - side expectations change and previous negative factors are digested [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2512 may maintain a weak and volatile trend due to systemic risks, OPEC+ production increase, and the possible end of the Israel - Palestine conflict [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of October 12, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 45.6 tons, a decrease of 0.05 tons from the previous period. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire and full - steel tire sample enterprises decreased due to holiday shutdowns. In September 2025, the logistics industry prosperity index and new order index increased, and the heavy - truck market sales increased significantly [8][9]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of October 10, 2025, the domestic methanol average operating rate was 80.38%, and the weekly output increased. The operating rates of downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, etc., changed slightly. The inventory in ports increased, while the inland inventory decreased [10][11][12]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of October 10, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US decreased. The US crude oil daily output, commercial inventory, and strategic reserve inventory changed. The international crude oil futures price declined, and the net long positions of WTI and Brent decreased [13][14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rubber | 14250 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 14900 yuan/ton | +5 yuan/ton | - 650 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2325 yuan/ton | - 2 yuan/ton | 2319 yuan/ton | +21 yuan/ton | +6 yuan/ton | - 21 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 421.8 yuan/barrel | - 0.1 yuan/barrel | 445.9 yuan/barrel | - 0.1 yuan/barrel | - 24.1 yuan/barrel | +0 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Relevant Charts - **Rubber**: There are charts of rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, etc. [17][19][21][25] - **Methanol**: There are charts of methanol basis, methanol 1 - 5 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, etc. [30][32][36] - **Crude Oil**: There are charts of crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, etc. [43][45][49]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For lead, the supply - tight pattern has improved, part of the demand was released in September, there is a large pressure for lead ingot inventory accumulation, and prices may be under pressure [1]. - For zinc, the fundamental situation of Shanghai zinc continues the weak trend of strong supply and weak demand, and with macro - disturbances, prices are under pressure. There is a need to be vigilant about overseas structural risks [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Data**: On the previous trading day, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots rose 0.15% from the previous day, and the closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract rose 0.35% from the previous day. The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic disk) was $1,986.00, up 0.43%, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.62, down 0.08% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise but hard to fall, not yet affecting smelter operations. Some smelters have maintenance plans, with a slight fluctuation in primary lead production. For recycled lead, previously - maintained smelters are resuming production, increasing supply. On the demand side, the terminal market shows no significant improvement, the peak - season effect is not evident, and dealers mainly digest inventory [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily hold off on trading [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: On the previous trading day, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots fell 0.90% from the previous day, and the Shanghai zinc main contract fell 0.92% from the previous day. The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic disk) was $2,940.50, down 0.44%, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 7.49, down 0.48% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, zinc ore processing fees are rising. Affected by the low internal - external price ratio, smelters mainly purchase domestic ores. In October, domestic TC may still decline. On the supply side, smelter profits and production enthusiasm have improved, with an obvious trend of increased production. On the demand side, there is no significant improvement, and the zinc ingot export window may open [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily hold off on trading [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price trends of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are characterized by cost bottom - support and wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data** - Ferrosilicon 2511: Closing price is 5376, down 2 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 82,305 and an open interest of 62,164. Ferrosilicon 2601: Closing price is 5352, up 30, trading volume is 109,840, and open interest is 189,336. - Silicomanganese 2511: Closing price is 5732, up 6, trading volume is 9,208, and open interest is 15,602. Silicomanganese 2601: Closing price is 5746, up 8, trading volume is 166,961, and open interest is 372,302 [2]. - **Spot Data** - Ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia has a price of 5180 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is priced at 5680 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. Manganese ore Mn44 block is 39.8 yuan/ton - degree, and semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 710 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Difference Data** - The spot - futures price difference of ferrosilicon is - 196 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton; that of silicomanganese is - 66 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton. - The near - far month price difference of ferrosilicon 2511 - 2601 is 24 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton; that of silicomanganese 2511 - 2601 is - 14 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. - The cross - variety price difference of silicomanganese 2511 - ferrosilicon 2511 is 356 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton; that of silicomanganese 2601 - ferrosilicon 2601 is 394 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On October 14, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Gansu was in the range of 5100 - 5250 yuan/ton, while in Qinghai it was 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton). The price of 75 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi, Gansu, and Inner Mongolia was 5850 - 6000 yuan/ton, while in Ningxia and Qinghai it decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon was 1040 - 1060 dollars/ton (down 10 dollars/ton), and that of 75 was 1110 - 1140 dollars/ton (down 10 dollars/ton). The price of 6517 silicomanganese in the north was 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, and in the south it was 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton [2]. - A northern representative steel mill's October ferrosilicon inquiry price was 5600 yuan/ton (compared to 5800 yuan/ton in September), and the October silicomanganese tender inquiry price was 5750 yuan/ton, 250 yuan/ton lower than the September price. Industry insiders predict that the final price of large mills may increase by 100 - 150 yuan/ton [2][4]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The range of trend strength is an integer within the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [4].

2025 年 10 月 15 日 工业硅：弱势供需格局 多晶硅：本周会议陆续召开，盘面看涨对待 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） | 8,520 | -285 | -90 | 5 | | | | Si2511成交量（手） | 287,277 | 45,724 | -105,425 | -84,528 | | | | Si2511持仓量（手） | 162,674 | -3,048 | -44,303 | -114,631 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | 49,990 | 1,250 | -1,290 | - | | | | PS2511成交量（手） | 297,703 | 50,727 | 139,591 | - | | | | PS2511持仓量（手） | 81,388 | - ...

| | | | | 铅锌日评20251015：沪铅或有承压；沪锌关注海外结构性风险 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/10/15 | | 指标 单位 | | 今值 | 变动 | 近期趋势 | | | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | 元/吨 | 16,875.00 | -0.30% | | | 沪铅期现价格 | | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 17,050.00 | -0.26% | | | | | 沪铅基差 | 元/吨 | -175.00 | -5.00 | | | | | 升贴水-上海 | 元/吨 | | - - | | | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 | 美元/吨 | -45.35 | -7.13 | | | | | 升贴水-LME 3-15 | 美元/吨 | -69.40 | 5.80 | | | 价差 | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 | 元/吨 | - | -5.00 | | | | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 | 元/吨 | -10.00 | 5.00 | | | 铅 | | 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 | 元/吨 | - ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-10-15） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：个别矿点有停、限产等情况，多数大矿仍以正常生产为主。近期部分焦企适当刚需采购， 影响线上竞拍资源成交价格多有上涨。但在一定恐高心态下，煤矿新签订单仍不佳，市场观望增多，考 虑焦企利润偏低，炼焦煤上涨空间较小；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1260，基差106.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存781.1万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存819.3万吨，总样本库存1895.4万吨， 较上周减少76.2万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线下方；中性 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净多，多减；偏多 6、预期：焦钢企业开工维稳，加之终端钢厂铁水维持高位，对原料煤需求尚可。但焦钢 ...