1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the nickel market's surplus pattern is hard to change, with nickel prices expected to adjust at a low level, and stainless - steel is expected to see price changes affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand. For both, it is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude for now [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary Nickel - This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel first rose and then fell, with a weekly increase of 1.06% and an amplitude of 3.03%. As of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 122,180 yuan/ton. In terms of the outlook, the Fed has different views on interest rate cuts. The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has recovered, and domestic nickel ore port inventories have increased rapidly. Newly invested electrolytic nickel projects are being put into production slowly, and some smelters have cut production due to losses. The demand from stainless - steel plants and new - energy vehicles is increasing, but the surplus pattern in the nickel market remains unchanged. Technically, it will maintain a range - bound shock. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Stainless Steel - This week, stainless steel fluctuated widely, with a weekly increase of 0.39% and an amplitude of 1.41%. As of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 12,780 yuan/ton. In terms of the outlook, the cost of raw materials has increased, and the support from raw material costs has strengthened. Although the production profit of steel mills has shrunk, the production schedule has increased due to the arrival of the traditional consumption season. The downstream demand is expected to increase, and the domestic inventory is in a de - stocking trend. Technically, the short - selling atmosphere is relatively strong, and it is facing pressure at the MA60 line. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Price Changes - As of October 10, the closing price of Shanghai nickel was 122,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 810 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 12,805 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton from last week. The average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week; the average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) in the whole country was 955 yuan/nickel, the same as last week [13]. Basis Changes - As of October 10, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 123,850 yuan/ton, with a basis of 1,670 yuan/ton; the closing price of stainless steel was 13,700 yuan/ton, with a basis of 895 yuan/ton [18]. Ratio Changes - As of October 10, the price ratio of Shanghai nickel to stainless steel on the SHFE was 9.54, an increase of 0.03 from last week; the price ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.34 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.12 from last week [25]. Net Long Position Changes - As of October 10, 2025, the net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel was - 37,172 lots, a decrease of 5,542 lots compared to September 26, 2025. The net long position of the top 20 in stainless steel was - 3,446 lots, a decrease of 3,279 lots compared to September 26, 2025 [31]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation Supply Side - **Nickel Ore and Electrolytic Nickel Production**: As of September 26, the nickel ore inventory in major domestic ports was 14.0937 million tons, an increase of 92,600 tons from last week. As of October 10, the production profit of electrowon nickel was 950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 975 yuan/ton from last week. In August 2025, the electrolytic nickel production was 36,695 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The import volume of refined nickel and alloys in August 2025 was 24,426.841 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.11%; from January to August, the cumulative import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 158,615.111 tons, a year - on - year increase of 180.61% [37][38][43]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of October 10, the SHFE nickel inventory was 33,119 tons, an increase of 5,619 tons from last week. The LME nickel inventory was 237,378 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons from last week [49][50]. Demand Side - **Stainless Steel Production and Trade**: In August 2025, the total output of stainless crude steel was 3.3156 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.26%. Among them, the output of 400 - series was 570,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23%; the output of 300 - series was 1.7379 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.34%; the output of 200 - series was 1.0073 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.05%. In August 2025, the stainless steel import volume was 113,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44,500 tons; the export volume was 370,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24,800 tons. From January to August, the cumulative net import volume was - 1.8351 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 256,800 tons [54]. - **Regional Inventory**: As of October 3, the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel in Foshan decreased by 32,000 tons from last week, and the inventory in Wuxi decreased by 43,400 tons from last week [59]. - **Production Profit**: As of October 10, the production profit of stainless steel was - 238 yuan/ton, a decrease of 97 yuan/ton from last week [63]. - **Downstream Industries**: From January to August 2025, the new housing construction area was 398.0101 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.5%; the housing completion area was 276.9354 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17%; the real estate development investment was 603.0919 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. In August 2025, the air - conditioner output was 16.8188 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.27%; the household refrigerator output was 9.4532 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.31%; the household washing - machine output was 10.1318 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%; the freezer output was 2.2423 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.76%. In August 2025, the new - energy vehicle production was 2.815 million units, a year - on - year increase of 32.3%; the sales volume was 2.857 million units, a year - on - year increase of 40.4%. The excavator output was 27,590 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.2%; the large - and medium - sized tractor output was 26,682 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.7%; the small - sized tractor output was 9,000 units, the same as last year [67][70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc rebounded from a low level, with a weekly increase of 2.04% and an amplitude of 2.59%. It is expected that zinc prices will stabilize and adjust. Macroscopically, there are differences in the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts. Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, the growth of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, the profit space of smelters is large, and the production enthusiasm has increased. The output of refined zinc has reached a high level. However, the overseas zinc ore is tight, resulting in an expansion of import losses and a decrease in the inflow of imported zinc. The demand side is affected by the real - estate sector, but there are some bright spots in the automobile and home - appliance sectors. Technically, the short - selling atmosphere has weakened. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc rebounded from a low level, with a weekly increase of 2.04% and an amplitude of 2.59%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 22,270 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroscopically, there are differences in the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts. Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, the growth of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, the profit space of smelters is large, and the production enthusiasm has increased. The output of refined zinc has reached a high level. However, the overseas zinc ore is tight, resulting in an expansion of import losses and a decrease in the inflow of imported zinc, and the export window is expected to open. The traditional peak season effect is dull, and the real - estate sector is a drag, while the automobile and home - appliance sectors have some bright spots. The domestic social inventory has increased, and the LME inventory has continued to decline. Technically, the short - selling atmosphere has weakened, and attention should be paid to the competition around MA60 [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: This week, the price of Shanghai Zinc futures rose, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased. As of October 10, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc was 22,270 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan/ton or 1.02% from September 25, 2025. As of October 9, 2025, the closing price of London Zinc was 3,014 US dollars/ton, up 2.5 US dollars/ton or 0.08% from October 3, 2025 [8]. - **Net Position and Total Position**: As of October 10, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc was 65 lots, an increase of 8,155 lots from September 25, 2025. The total position of Shanghai Zinc was 215,372 lots, a decrease of 23,090 lots or 9.68% from September 25, 2025 [12]. - **Price Spreads**: As of October 10, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from September 25, 2025. The lead - zinc futures price spread was 5,130 yuan/ton, an increase of 175 yuan/ton from September 25, 2025 [16]. - **Premium and Discount**: As of October 10, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,340 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan/ton or 1.73% from September 25, 2025. The spot discount was 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week. As of October 9, 2025, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was 66.8 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8.62 US dollars/ton from October 2, 2025 [22]. - **Inventory**: As of October 10, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 37,950 tons, a decrease of 1,850 tons or 4.65% from October 3, 2025. The Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventory was 106,950 tons, an increase of 8,940 tons or 9.12% from last week. As of October 9, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 136,100 tons, an increase of 800 tons or 0.59% from September 25, 2025 [25]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream**: In July 2025, the global zinc ore output was 1.0762 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.73% and a year - on - year increase of 10.28%. In August 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 467,301.43 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.51% and a year - on - year increase of 30.83% [31][32]. - **Supply - side - Global**: According to ILZSG data, in July 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1993 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 75,300 tons or 6.7%. The global refined zinc consumption was 1.1691 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10,100 tons or 0.87%. The global refined zinc surplus was 30,200 tons, compared with a deficit of 35,000 tons in the same period last year. According to WBMS, in June 2024, the global zinc market supply - demand balance was - 27,800 tons [37][38]. - **Supply - side - Domestic**: In August 2025, the zinc output was 651,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.8%. From January to August, the cumulative zinc output was 4.836 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. In August 2025, the refined zinc import volume was 25,656.83 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.59%, and the export volume was 310.91 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 84.57% [41][44]. - **Downstream - Galvanized Sheets**: From January to August 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of domestic major enterprises was 853,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.36%. In August 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 42,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.27%, and the export volume was 335,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.19% [47]. - **Downstream - Real Estate**: From January to August 2025, the new housing construction area was 398.0101 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.54%. The housing completion area was 276.9354 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.94%. The funds in place for real - estate development enterprises were 6.431803 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, personal mortgage loans were 885.679 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.5% [52][53]. - **Downstream - Infrastructure**: In August 2025, the real - estate development climate index was 93.05, a decrease of 0.28 from last month and an increase of 0.81 from the same period last year. From January to August 2025, the infrastructure investment increased by 5.42% year - on - year [58]. - **Downstream - Home Appliances**: In August 2025, the refrigerator output was 9.4532 million units, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. From January to August, the cumulative refrigerator output was 70.1891 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. The air - conditioner output was 16.8188 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.3%. From January to August, the cumulative air - conditioner output was 199.6462 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.8% [61]. - **Downstream - Automobiles**: In August 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 2,856,590 units, a year - on - year increase of 16.44%. The production volume was 2,815,413 units, a year - on - year increase of 12.96% [65].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overnight, due to continuous data shortages and increased uncertainty about the future, U.S. Treasuries, U.S. stocks, gold, and crude oil all declined. After the holiday, the domestic A-share market had a good start, with the index breaking through the previous oscillation platform with increasing volume. However, individual stocks did not form a resonance, and the market had a fragmented breakthrough. A slow bull market is certain at the index level, but it is currently difficult for individual stocks to make money by tracking the market trend. The strategy is to maintain a long position in the Shanghai 50 Index, and the position of the CSI 1000 can be switched to the CSI 500. In terms of industry sectors, only large-cap stocks should be selected instead of small-cap stocks. Attention should be paid to the technology sector, but the focus should not be overly concentrated on computing power. [3][12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The U.S. federal government shutdown led to the non - release of the initial jobless claims on Thursday. Fed officials' remarks indicated a split within the Fed regarding future interest rate cuts. Williams supported further rate cuts due to the slowdown in the labor market, while Barr advocated for caution, and Kashkari agreed with Barr. Overnight, most peripheral assets declined, the U.S. dollar index rose, U.S. Treasury yields increased at both short and long ends, gold fell, the three major U.S. stock indexes declined, the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index fell, and the offshore RMB exchange rate appreciated. Geopolitical changes and the Fed's attitude towards rate cuts remain key points to monitor. [1][5] 1.2 Domestic Market Review - After the holiday on Thursday, the market had a good start. The broader market rose 1.32% with a high - opening and oscillating trend, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.73%. The market showed a significant index rebound but a polarization of individual stocks. Benefiting from the rise of overseas gold during the holiday, the cyclical sector rose, and the technology sector was internally divided. The market trend was fragmented. Sectors such as non - ferrous metals, steel, coal, and public utilities led the gains, while media, real estate, social services, and automobiles led the losses. There were 3109 rising stocks and 2184 falling stocks in the whole market. Although 100 stocks reached the daily limit, the performance of stocks with consecutive daily limits in the previous trading session was poor, and the profit - making effect was weak. On October 9, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued four announcements to implement export controls on related items such as super - hard materials, some rare - earth equipment and raw materials, some medium - heavy rare earths, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials. [2][6] 1.3 Important Information - **Fed Officials' Views**: Williams supported further rate cuts as the labor market may further slow down; Barr believed rate cuts should be cautious as the current interest rate is moderately restrictive; Kashkari basically agreed with Barr. - **U.S. Labor Statistics**: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics recalled some employees to compile the CPI report, and it is expected to be released during the government shutdown. - **International Events**: The first - stage Gaza cease - fire agreement officially took effect. Trump said he would go to Egypt to attend the signing ceremony of the Gaza cease - fire agreement. Japan's LDP President Takashi Hayao stated that there was no intention to cause excessive depreciation of the yen. Li Qiang met with Kim Jong - un at the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea in Pyongyang. China and India will resume direct flights by the end of October. The Ministry of Commerce included foreign entities such as anti - drone technology companies in the unreliable entity list. The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs implemented export controls on relevant items with obvious dual - use military and civilian attributes, such as some medium - heavy rare earth - related items, lithium battery and artificial graphite anode material - related items. The Ministry of Commerce announced decisions on export controls of rare - earth - related technologies and overseas rare - earth items. [7][11] 1.4 Today's Strategy - The same as the core view mentioned above. [3][12] 2. Futures Market Tracking - **Performance**: Tables show the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change percentages, basis, and other data of futures contracts for the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, including different contract delivery months such as 2510, 2511, 2512, and 2603. [14] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Tables present the trading volume, trading volume changes, trading amount, trading amount changes, open interest, open interest changes, weekly position increases, net positions, and changes in net positions, short - position open interest, and long - position open interest for different futures contracts and their corresponding indexes. [15] 3. Spot Market Tracking - **Market Performance**: Tables display the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading amounts, price - to - earnings ratios, and their historical quantiles of major indexes such as the Wind All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, as well as various industry sectors. [37] - **Market Style Impact**: Tables show the impact of market styles (cyclical, consumption, growth, finance, and stability) on the price changes of the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, including the number of stocks, weights, and daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions. [38][39] - **Valuation and Other Data**: Charts show the valuations of important indexes, Shenwan valuations, market average daily trading volume, average daily turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks in the two markets, index trading amount changes, stock - bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect data, margin trading balances, and margin trading net purchases and their proportions in A - share trading amounts. [41][47] 4. Liquidity Tracking - Charts show the central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest rate levels. [53]

Core Viewpoint - The recent statements from Federal Reserve officials indicate a shift away from expectations of interest rate cuts, emphasizing the need to control inflation rather than stimulate the economy, which could lead to a re-evaluation of investment strategies in gold and Bitcoin [1][3][26]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - Cleveland Fed President Mester warns against loosening policies too quickly, stating that current inflation remains above the 2% target, and hasty rate cuts could undermine previous inflation control efforts [5]. - Atlanta Fed President Bostic dismisses the need for rate cuts this year, predicting core inflation to rise to 3.1% by year-end and unemployment to reach 4.5% [5]. - Fed Vice Chair Jefferson acknowledges the dilemma of rising inflation risks while recognizing employment risks, suggesting a cautious approach to policy adjustments [7]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's hawkish comments, gold prices fell sharply, with New York futures dropping from $4,012 to $3,926, marking the largest single-day decline in two weeks [11]. - Bitcoin also experienced a significant drop, falling from $116,000 to $112,800, as institutional buying paused amid reduced expectations for rate cuts [13]. - The S&P 500 index declined by 1.1%, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose to 4.3%, indicating a shift of funds from riskier assets to safer investments [15]. Group 3: Adjusted Market Predictions - Institutions have revised their rate cut expectations, with Deutsche Bank's previous forecast of three cuts in Q4 being overturned [16]. - Invesco has lowered its forecast to two cuts by year-end, while ICBC International warns that excessive easing could damage policy credibility, suggesting a gradual rate cut approach [18]. - This shift implies a significant reduction in the previously anticipated "easy money" environment that supported gold and Bitcoin prices [19]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Adjustments - The Fed's stance suggests a transition from betting on rate cuts to closely monitoring economic data [21]. - Investors are advised to focus on key indicators such as the upcoming Fed meeting on October 28 and weekly jobless claims to gauge employment pressures [23]. - A recommended asset allocation includes maintaining 10% in gold (primarily physical) and reducing Bitcoin exposure to 3% of discretionary funds, while avoiding leveraged contracts [23]. Group 5: Long-term Value Perspective - Despite the Fed's cautious approach, the fundamental logic for gold and Bitcoin remains intact, as long as M2 money supply continues to grow and currency devaluation persists [26]. - The previous "rapid growth model" for assets is expected to shift to a "volatile upward trend," emphasizing the importance of long-term holding strategies over short-term speculation [30].

Market Overview - US stock market experienced a decline after reaching intraday historical highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices on October 10, 2023 [3][5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 243.36 points, a decrease of 0.52%, at 46,358.42 points; Nasdaq fell 18.75 points, down 0.08%, to 23,024.63 points; S&P 500 dropped 18.61 points, a decline of 0.28%, to 6,735.11 points [6] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve's third-in-command, John Williams, expressed support for further interest rate cuts within the year to address potential labor market slowdowns [8] - Williams noted that the US economy is not on the brink of recession and that inflation prospects have improved compared to earlier in the year [8] - Fed Governor Christopher Waller emphasized caution regarding further rate cuts, focusing on inflation risks while acknowledging vulnerabilities in the labor market [8] Tesla's Safety Investigation - Approximately 2.9 million Tesla vehicles equipped with the Full Self-Driving (FSD) system are under investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) due to safety concerns [12] - Reports indicate that the FSD system has been linked to multiple incidents, including running red lights and causing collisions, with some resulting in injuries [12] Ferrari's Stock Performance - Ferrari's stock plummeted by 15%, marking its worst trading day since going public, following updates to its annual and 2030 revenue guidance [20][22] - The company slightly raised its 2023 revenue forecast to exceed €7.1 billion and adjusted its EBITDA expectations to €2.72 billion or more [22] - Analysts noted that Ferrari's long-term growth projections have been downgraded, with a compound annual growth rate of 6% expected by 2030, significantly lower than the previously suggested 10% [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The gold price may experience a short - term decline due to the end of the Middle - East conflict and the full pricing of positive factors [12][13]. - The US dollar index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [17][18]. - US stock index futures are likely to maintain a relatively strong trend after the impact of the government shutdown event subsides [21]. - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to maintain a short - term high - level trend, and it is recommended to allocate stock index futures evenly [26][27]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate and bottom out in the short term, and it is advisable to lay out medium - term long positions on dips [28][29]. - Palm oil prices are expected to continue to rise due to Indonesia's biodiesel policy [31]. - ICE raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar are expected to have a weak rebound in the fourth quarter [36][37]. - Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and short - term callback risks need to be noted [39][40]. - The price of thermal coal is expected to continue to decline seasonally [41]. - Iron ore prices are relatively resistant to decline in the short term, but steel mills may face production cut pressure in mid - to late October [42]. - The price of red dates may rebound in the short term, and attention should be paid to the acquisition price in the production area [45]. - The spot price of polysilicon may remain flat, and the price of components is expected to fluctuate in the short term [47][48]. - It is advisable to go long on industrial silicon on dips, but be cautious when chasing highs [52]. - For lead, it is advisable to wait for a pullback to lay out medium - term long positions and pay attention to positive spread arbitrage opportunities [53]. - For zinc, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and there are positive spread arbitrage opportunities [55]. - For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies and the reverse spread arbitrage opportunity between LC2511 - 2512 [57]. - The copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to take a long - position approach [60][61]. - The downward space of the LPG contract is limited, and it is advisable to pay attention to opportunities to shrink PDH profits [64]. - The CEA price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [66]. - The natural gas price is recommended to be treated with a bearish mindset [68]. - The downward space of the caustic soda futures price may be limited [71]. - The pulp market is expected to oscillate weakly [73]. - The PVC price is difficult to decline further, and attention should be paid to domestic policy benefits [76]. - The supply - demand contradiction of bottle chips may accumulate in the fourth quarter, and there is pressure on processing fees [78]. - It is advisable to stop profiting on short positions of urea gradually [81]. - It is advisable to stop profiting on positions to shrink the styrene - benzene spread [83]. - It is advisable to short sell soda ash on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [85]. - It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and shorting soda ash 2601 [86]. - The container freight rate index 12 - contract is recommended to be treated with an oscillating mindset [88][89]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Middle - East cease - fire agreement and full pricing of positive factors lead to a high - level correction of gold prices. Gold prices may fall due to short - term profit - taking by bulls [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump may impose more sanctions on Russia, and the Fed is cautious about further interest rate cuts. The US dollar index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [14][17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - TSMC's Q3 revenue exceeded expectations. Amid the vacuum of macro data, the market is sensitive to AI industry news. After the impact of the government shutdown event subsides, US stock index futures are expected to maintain a relatively strong trend [19][20][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3900 points, reaching a new high in nearly a decade. The stock market showed strong sentiment on the first trading day after the holiday, and it is recommended to allocate stock index futures evenly [22][26][27]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 612 billion yuan. Due to weak terminal demand, the bond market strengthened against the stock market. It is expected to oscillate and bottom out in the short term, and it is advisable to lay out medium - term long positions on dips [28][29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia plans to implement the mandatory B50 biodiesel plan next year, which will tighten the global palm oil supply - demand pattern. Palm oil prices are expected to continue to rise [30][31]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar production was strong in the first half of September, but the high - temperature and drought weather may lead to a decrease in production later. ICE raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar are expected to have a weak rebound in the fourth quarter [35][36][37]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The sales volume of heavy - duty trucks and the CMI index increased in September. After the holiday, the steel price continued to oscillate, and the market entered the peak - season demand verification period. Short - term callback risks need to be noted [38][39][40]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - The supply of thermal coal was not loose during the National Day, but the demand was seasonally weak. The price is expected to continue to decline seasonally [41]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Brazilian mining company Minerita signed a contract with Metso. Iron ore prices are relatively resistant to decline in the short term, but steel mills may face production cut pressure in mid - to late October [42]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - Red dates in Xinjiang are entering the drying period. The price of the futures main contract rose after the holiday. The current inventory is at a relatively high level, and the price may rebound in the short term [43][44][45]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - India imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese solar cells and components. The polysilicon spot price may remain flat, and the component price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [46][47][48]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Two departments aimed to regulate price competition. The seasonal inventory change of industrial silicon is not obvious. It is advisable to go long on dips, but be cautious when chasing highs [50][52]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead was at a discount, and the domestic lead inventory decreased. The price of lead is expected to oscillate and rise. It is advisable to wait for a pullback to lay out medium - term long positions and pay attention to positive spread arbitrage opportunities [53]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc was at a premium, and the domestic zinc inventory decreased slightly. The zinc price is recommended to be treated with a wait - and - see attitude in the short term, and there are positive spread arbitrage opportunities [54][55]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zangge Mining's subsidiary obtained mining rights. The lithium carbonate market is in a situation of strong reality and weak expectation. It is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies and the reverse spread arbitrage opportunity between LC2511 - 2512 [56][57]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Indonesia introduced policies to help SMEs obtain mining rights, and Teck Resources lowered its copper production forecast. The copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to take a long - position approach [58][59][60]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The price of Middle - East LPG changed, and some PDH devices had maintenance plans. The downward space of the LPG contract is limited, and it is advisable to pay attention to opportunities to shrink PDH profits [62][63][64]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price increased slightly. The carbon market supply - demand structure is balanced and loose, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [65][66]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory increased. The natural gas price is recommended to be treated with a bearish mindset [67][68]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong was adjusted flexibly after the holiday. The downward space of the caustic soda futures price may be limited [70][71]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp was mostly stable. The pulp market is expected to oscillate weakly [72][73]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price decreased. The price is difficult to decline further, and attention should be paid to domestic policy benefits [74][76]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips was adjusted slightly. The supply - demand contradiction of bottle chips may accumulate in the fourth quarter, and there is pressure on processing fees [77][78]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea enterprise inventory increased. It is advisable to stop profiting on short positions of urea gradually [79][81]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports increased. It is advisable to stop profiting on positions to shrink the styrene - benzene spread [82][83]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers increased. It is advisable to short sell soda ash on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [84][85]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass manufacturers increased significantly. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and shorting soda ash 2601 [85][86]. 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The throughput of major ports increased from January to August. The container freight rate index 12 - contract is recommended to be treated with an oscillating mindset [87][88][89].

Market Overview - US stock market closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 243.36 points (0.52%) at 46,358.42, the Nasdaq down 18.75 points (0.08%) at 23,024.63, and the S&P 500 down 18.61 points (0.28%) at 6,735.11 [4] - The Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices reached intraday historical highs before retreating [2] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve's Williams supports further interest rate cuts within the year to address potential labor market slowdowns [6] - Fed Governor Barr emphasizes caution regarding further rate cuts, focusing on inflation risks while acknowledging vulnerabilities in the labor market [7] Tesla Investigation - Approximately 2.9 million Tesla vehicles with Full Self-Driving (FSD) may have safety issues, leading to a federal investigation [10] - Reports indicate that FSD has been linked to multiple accidents, including running red lights and other traffic violations [10] Ferrari Stock Performance - Ferrari's stock plummeted 15%, marking its worst trading day since going public [16][17] - The company updated its revenue guidance for the year to exceed €7.1 billion, slightly above the previous target of "not less than €7 billion" [20] - For 2030, Ferrari anticipates revenue of €9 billion and adjusted EBITDA of at least €3.6 billion, indicating a compound annual growth rate of 6%, which is lower than the previously suggested 10% [21][22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint expressed by Michael Barr is the concern that further interest rate cuts may exacerbate inflation risks, making the decision for potential cuts in October a "difficult choice" [1] - Barr indicated that the decision to cut rates in September was primarily based on a cautious assessment of the labor market, suggesting that if there were no concerns about the labor market, a cut would not have been necessary [1] - He emphasized the importance of balancing various objectives, including price stability and full employment, which reflects the independence of the central bank [1] Group 2 - In terms of macroeconomic fundamentals, Barr stated that the overall household balance sheet situation is relatively good and that there is no evidence of an economic boom driven by credit [2] - He noted that the wealth effect may be contributing to consumer spending growth [2] - Regarding balance sheet operations, Barr mentioned that the progress in balance sheet normalization has been quite smooth and highlighted the importance of having effective policy rate "ceiling tools" [2]

昨夜，美股集体收跌。 其中，道指跌0.52%报46358.42点，标普500指数跌0.28%报6735.11点，纳指跌0.08%报23024.63点。 中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌2.03%。个股方面，禾赛科技跌超7%，小鹏汽车跌超5%， 蔚来跌超5%，小马智行跌逾5%，好未来跌超4%。 现货黄金则在今早开盘后走高。 美股的集体走低主要还是受政府"停摆"影响，由于政府"停摆"关键经济数据延迟发布，市场流动性受 限。 美国总统特朗普当天表示，鉴于美国国会在重启政府问题上似乎仍陷于僵局，他计划削减一些受民主党 欢迎的联邦项目。 特朗普称，他们"将进行永久性的削减，而且只会削减民主党的项目"。 美联储方面，对于降息，多位官员再度表态，不过明显存在分歧。 美联储"三把手"、纽约联邦储备银行行长威廉姆斯明确表态，支持在今年内进一步下调利率，以应对劳 动力市场可能出现的急剧放缓风险。他还表示，并不认为美国经济处于衰退的边缘。通胀前景不像今年 早些时候那么可怕。劳动力市场疲软将有助于抑制通胀。 美联储理事巴尔表示，美联储在进一步降息方面应保持谨慎，他明显偏向通胀风险，尽管他也承认"基 本平衡"的劳动力市场存在潜在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The long-term neutral interest rate has slightly increased, but the extent is not significant. Current policies may have a moderate restrictive effect [1] Group 1 - The progress of reducing the balance sheet has been very smooth so far [1] - There are concerns that a rate cut in October could fuel inflation in the U.S. [1] - While a rate cut may benefit the job market, it carries inflation risks [1]