Group 1: Policy Signals - The April Politburo meeting emphasized "stabilizing employment, economy, market, and expectations" amid external risks, marking a shift towards high-quality development and proactive policy adjustments[1] - The government plans to implement flexible and unconventional policies based on changing circumstances, focusing on timely incremental reserve policies and counter-cyclical adjustments[1] Group 2: Employment and Market Stability - The April 28 press conference highlighted coordinated efforts to stabilize domestic demand and employment, with initiatives like "trade-in" subsidies and support for service consumption[2] - The May 7 press conference focused on stabilizing the stock and real estate markets, including measures like lowering public housing loan rates by 0.25 percentage points and increasing long-term capital market participation[2] Group 3: Incremental Policies and Financial Support - The 90-day tariff "grace period" serves as a crucial window for implementing existing policies and preparing incremental measures, with strong export performance expected to continue into May[3] - The central bank's recent policies, including comprehensive reserve requirement cuts and structural monetary policy rate reductions, aim to lower commercial banks' funding costs and facilitate loan rate reductions[3] Group 4: Fiscal Policy and Revenue Trends - In Q1, broad fiscal revenue fell by 2.6% year-on-year, below the initial target of 0.2%, while fiscal expenditure increased by 5.6% due to government debt financing[4] - The issuance of local government bonds is expected to accelerate, with new special bonds projected to grow by 36.5% compared to Q1[4] Group 5: Future Focus Areas - If tariff negotiations progress positively, future policies may shift towards long-term institutional reforms and structural support, emphasizing consumer relief and income growth as key drivers for consumption[5] - Service consumption recovery remains critical, with current levels at only 87.7% of historical trends, indicating significant potential for policy-driven growth[5]

欧元兑美元涨0.26%，现报1.1116。美国财长贝森特淡化了与欧盟迅速达成贸易协议的可能性，称欧盟 存在"集体行动问题"，这阻碍了谈判。"我认为美国和欧洲可能会慢一点，"贝森特在利雅得举行的沙 特-美国投资论坛上被问及关税谈判进展时表示。"我个人认为，欧洲可能存在集体行动问题；比如意大 利想要的东西与法国不同。但我相信，最终我们会达成令人满意的结果，"他继续说道。贝森特对与亚 洲贸易伙伴达成协议较为乐观。他表示，美国已经与日本进行了"非常富有成效的讨论"，并称赞了与印 尼"非常积极"的沟通。他还提到了与韩国和泰国的谈判。他表示："在我这边，进展非常顺利"。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints Urea - Despite high domestic urea daily production, short - term maintenance led to a decline. The release of aid - related export orders from May to June and the upcoming summer top - dressing season are expected to support the market. However, price increases will be cautious, and the market is likely to fluctuate at a high level in the near term [5]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices continued to fluctuate at a high level. In the short term, after the market digests macro - level positives, it may focus on the impact of geopolitical factors on supply. Oil prices are expected to remain at a relatively high level. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading, and consider strategies to capture volatility on the options side [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The supply - demand outlook is improving, but the current spot supply is still loose. Consider opportunities such as long PX05 and short crude oil [18]. - PTA: Supply - demand may gradually weaken, and the absolute price will follow the cost side. TA01 is expected to oscillate between 4800 - 5000 [18]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply - demand will gradually weaken, and there is pressure on the upside in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to port inventory and upstream - downstream operating rates [18]. - Short Fiber: The processing fee is expected to be compressed, and the absolute price will follow the cost side. PF02 is expected to operate between 6800 - 7100 [18]. - Bottle Chip: The supply - demand situation remains loose, and the absolute price will follow the cost side. Consider short - term short - selling strategies [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The supply is in a concentrated maintenance phase, and the demand from the alumina industry is improving. The spot price is rising, and the futures market is strong. Consider short - term short - selling opportunities near the resistance level of 2550 [26]. - PVC: Although the futures market has strengthened slightly, the supply - demand surplus problem persists. It is recommended to wait and see during price rebounds and consider short - selling in the medium term [26]. Styrene - In the short term, styrene is expected to remain strong, but be cautious about chasing high prices. The operating range of 06 is expected to move up to 7000 - 7600. Pay attention to the continuity of spot transactions [29]. Polyolefins (PE and PP) - The supply pressure of plastics will gradually decrease in May. The supply pressure of PP will ease slightly in the second quarter. Pay attention to the restocking and export situation of plastic products [32]. Methanol - The inland valuation has downward pressure, and the supply - demand situation is loose. The port has entered a inventory - building period. It is recommended to short the MA09 contract at high prices [35][37]. Summary by Directory Urea Futures Prices - On May 12, the 01 contract closed at 1801 yuan/ton, up 0.61% from May 9; the 05 contract closed at 1925 yuan/ton, down 0.52%; the 09 contract closed at 1897 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; the methanol main contract closed at 2270 yuan/ton, up 1.93% [1]. Futures Contract Spreads - On May 12, the spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 124 yuan/ton, up 14.48% from May 9; the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts was 28 yuan/ton, down 33.33% [2]. Upstream Raw Materials - As of May 13, the prices of upstream raw materials such as anthracite small pieces, steam coal, and synthetic ammonia remained unchanged compared to May 12 [3]. Spot Market Prices - As of May 13, domestic and international spot prices of urea remained unchanged [3]. Supply - Demand Overview - Daily data: Domestic urea daily production decreased by 1.20% to 19.72 million tons on May 8 compared to before. - Weekly data: Domestic urea weekly production increased by 0.21% to 139.60 million tons; factory inventory decreased by 10.58% to 106.56 million tons; port inventory increased by 12.71% to 13.30 million tons [5]. Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - On May 13, Brent crude oil was at 64.96 dollars/barrel, up 1.64% from May 12; WTI was at 61.96 dollars/barrel, up 0.02%; SC was at 474.80 yuan/barrel, up 1.34% [14]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Prices - On May 12, Brent crude oil (July) was at 64.96 dollars/barrel, up 1.6% from May 9; WTI (June) was at 61.95 dollars/barrel, up 1.5% [18]. Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - On May 12, POY150/48 price was 6675 yuan/ton, up 1.4% from May 9; FDY150/96 price was 6845 yuan/ton, up 1.7% [18]. PX - related - CFR China PX was at 785 dollars/ton on May 12, unchanged from May 9 [18]. PTA - related - PTA East China spot price was 4840 yuan/ton on May 12, up 2.7% from May 9 [18]. MEG - related - MEG port inventory was 75.1 million tons on May 12, down 6.8% from May 6 [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures Prices - On May 12, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2593.8 yuan/ton, up 1.2% from before; East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price was 4660 yuan/ton, unchanged [22]. Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - FOB East China port caustic soda was at 395 dollars/ton on May 8, down 1.3% from May 1 [22]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - Caustic soda industry operating rate was 87.5% on May 9, up 1.3% from May 2; PVC total operating rate was 77.9%, up 1.4% [24]. Styrene Upstream and Related Prices - On May 12, Brent crude oil (July) was at 64.96 dollars/barrel, up 1.6% from May 9; WTI (June) was at 61.95 dollars/barrel, up 1.5% [29]. Styrene - related - Styrene East China spot price was 7530 yuan/ton on May 12, up 5.0% from May 9 [29]. Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - EPS ordinary material (East China) was at 8250 yuan/ton on May 12, down 1.2% from May 9 [29]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Pure benzene East China port inventory was 13.40 million tons on May 7, up 10.7% from April 30; styrene East China port inventory was 6.25 million tons, down 15.3% [29]. Polyolefins (PE and PP) Prices and Spreads - On May 12, L2505 closed at 7282 yuan/ton, up 0.72% from May 9; PP2505 closed at 7100 yuan/ton, up 0.34% [32]. Operating Rates and Inventory - PE device operating rate was 84.1% on May 12, down 0.91% from before; PP device operating rate was 79.7%, up 7.2% [32]. Methanol Prices and Spreads - On May 12, MA2505 closed at 2338 yuan/ton, up 2.10% from May 9; the spread between MA2505 and MA2509 was 68 yuan/ton, up 7.94% [35]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Methanol enterprise inventory was 30.391% on May 12, up 7.26% from before; upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 75.65%, up 1.64% [35].

品种 国内前日期货 收盘价 （元/吨） 国内基差 （元/吨） 前日LME3月 期收盘价 (美元/吨） LME现货升贴水 （CASH-3M） （美元/吨） LME库存 （吨） LME库存日 度变化 （吨） 铜 78,590 -30 9,420 23.87 190,750 -1,025 铝 19,945 0 2,383 -5.34 401,525 -2,025 锌 22,725 415 2,617 -27.37 169,850 -475 镍 125,920 -2,730 15,548 -198.42 197,754 84 铅 16,955 -190 1,958 5.95 251,800 -1,625 锡 263,050 -1,130 31,636 15.00 2,790 85 数据来源：Wind，申银万国期货研究所 数据来源：Wind，申银万国期货研究所 国 内 市 场 基 差 L M E 现 货 升 贴 水 铜 铝 锌 镍 铅 锡 基差 -30 0 415 -2,730 -190 -1,130 -30 0 415 -2,730 -190 -1,130 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 元 ...

消息人士称，打击数字盗版和假货是美越关税谈判的一部分。 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 5 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 元/吨，折人民币价格 6520 元/吨，基差收窄 86 元/吨至-4 元/吨。 | | | --- | --- | | 江浙涤丝产销局部放量，平均产销估算在 110-120%。国内一套年 | | | 产 75 万吨聚酯瓶片新装置已于上周末出料，目前负荷仍在提升 | | | 中；另一年产 75 万吨装置于 4 月初停车检修，目前也在重启出料 | | | 中。5.12 华东主港地区 MEG 港口库存约 75.1 万吨附近，环比上 | | | 期减少 3.9 万吨。PX 集中检修，供应较前期明显收紧，下游 PTA | | | 检修还在继续，但聚酯开工负荷未下降，需求持续支撑价格偏强。 | | | PTA 加工差有所修复，自身检修继续，下游聚酯端高开工高库存， | | | 需求持续存在支撑，短期内 PTA 现货价格则跟随成本端偏强震 | | | 荡，后市关注 PTA 装置变动及原油市场波动。五月上半月乙二醇 | | | 外盘到货稀少，国内装置检修与重启交替，国产货增量较为有限。 | | | 供需预期修正下，五月乙二醇去库将 ...

据报道，泰国已向美国提交了关税提案以供谈判。(第一财经) ...

【逻辑】昨日不锈钢盘面震荡上行，现货价格小幅调涨，市场信心回暖，部分贸易商因库存偏低，选择 限量出货或提高报价，市场整体成交活跃度提升。宏观方面，昨日中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布， 美国将暂停24%对华加征关税90天，并取消此前部分关税措施，但仍保留10%的关税，关税谈判结果整 体略超预期对情绪有一定带动。近期矿端价格相对坚挺，铬矿现货源紧缺，叠加铬铁供应过剩得到明显 修复，铬铁价格偏强。菲律宾部分矿山6月资源已在洽谈中，镍矿价格小幅回调，1.4%镍矿FOB为40左 右；印尼5月二期镍矿内贸升水维持+26-27不变，内贸基价上涨0.65-1美元，整体价格小幅上涨，雨季影 响下镍矿供应仍偏紧。镍铁价格弱稳运行，最新成交940元/镍（到厂含税），铁厂暂停报价。国内钢厂 部分检修减产但力度不足，不锈钢排产维持高位，假期后钢厂持续到货，供应过剩格局加剧。需求具有 一定韧性但仍缓慢修复中，制造业订单回暖较慢，采购以刚需补库为主。社会库存周度数据基本持稳， 仓单近期一定减少，库存压力稍缓。总体上，矿端对价格有一定支撑，原料镍铁价格松动，短期供需矛 盾有所扩大，库存压力稍缓。短期宏观改善市场情绪修复，但供需矛盾强化之下基 ...

Group 1: Trade Negotiation Outcomes - The US will retain 10% of the 20% tariff on fentanyl and suspend 90% of the remaining 24% tariffs for 90 days, while canceling all tariffs imposed on April 8 and 9[1] - China will suspend the implementation of the 24% tariffs on US goods for the initial 90 days, retaining 10% on these products and canceling other subsequent tariffs[1] - The tariff reductions exceed previous investor expectations, potentially raising the volatility center of the domestic equity market[1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - A-shares opened higher and closed up, with significant gains in sectors like power equipment, machinery, and electronics, confirming the positive outlook[2] - The market's risk appetite is expected to increase further due to the positive signals from the US-China negotiations, with potential recovery in the export chain[2] - The current A-share risk premium is influenced by domestic credit cycles and the US dollar cycle, with a reasonable P/E ratio estimated at 21x compared to the current 19x[4] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Short-term recommendations include increasing allocations to technology and export sectors, while maintaining a cautious stance on industries with high US exposure[5] - Mid-term strategies should focus on sectors benefiting from internal certainty, such as public funds and industries with improved earnings forecasts[5] - The Hong Kong market is expected to show relative returns, with recommendations to increase allocations in technology and consumer sectors[6]

这是从大的结构的角度来看，从空间的角度，明天这个位置压力在哪里？其实就在第二条这个斜线就是 3509 3494 3439，这个地方有一条斜线拉过来，这应该是短线这个地方我们找到的最近的一条斜线也是 最大的一个最近的压力点，这就是上证指数现在这个地方的一种状态。明天的应对，我相信大家应该多 多少少应该心里面有点感觉了，因为有几次的大事件作为参照，有情绪的释放作为参照，再加上短线这 个位置可以参照的空间。 面对这种盘面，在这个阶段里面我们其实也可以有一些参考，比如说我们可以参考10月8号，也可以参 考12月10号，同时我们可以反向参考2025年的4月7号，也就是说一种短线的某一个方向的极端情绪或者 氛围出来了以后，市场一般都会走向一种小的高潮，要么就是抛售的高潮，有可能就是买入的高潮。所 以抛开当下这个位置指数的结构不讲，那么明天这个位置应该是一个情绪的释放点，我们我们应该怎么 应对？那我们就看刚才我所讲的那三个位置，这个市场最终它的实际上的走势和我们的情绪是怎么去反 应？那么我们简单的回到指数的结构，今天下午多多头也是顺应了一分钟级别，三买的框架就是没有跌 破3350，然后呢拉起来收在了3369，所以明天一高开 ...