Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The US and China issued a joint statement on the Geneva trade talks, reducing tariffs on each other's goods significantly, which is expected to benefit export-oriented companies with international supply chain advantages [2] - The company Bruker has been actively launching new products since May, enhancing its innovation capabilities and product diversity [2] Chapter Summaries Chapter 1: Real Estate and Home Furnishing Industry - New home sales in 33 cities totaled 2.0064 million square meters from May 10 to May 16, showing a year-on-year decrease of 13.78% but a month-on-month increase of 30.76% [23] - In major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, new home sales showed varying year-on-year and month-on-month changes, with Beijing experiencing a 4.93% increase year-on-year [37] Chapter 2: Paper Industry - The average price of hardwood pulp was 4236 CNY per ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 1.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 26.7% [15] Chapter 3: Textile and Apparel Industry - Domestic cotton prices as of May 16 were reported at 14577 CNY per ton, with year-on-year decreases of 9.8% [16] - E-commerce sales for major apparel brands showed varied performance, with Anta down 27.3% year-on-year [16] Chapter 4: Gold and Diamond Industry - COMEX gold closed at 3205.3 USD per ounce, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 36.84% [17] Chapter 5: Export Chain - In April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year-on-year, with furniture and apparel exports showing declines [18] Chapter 6: Medical Aesthetics - The report highlights the approval of several injectable medical aesthetic products, indicating growth in the sector [20]

北京时间18日晚间消息，美国财长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）回应穆迪下调美国信用评级称，他不太相 信穆迪，穆迪评级"落后于指标"。贝森特称，美国GDP增长速度将超过债务增长速度。 关于关税，贝森特表示，会达成很多地区性的协议。贝森特称，美国正将关税讨论集中在18个关键贸易伙伴 上。贝森特还表示，他周六确实与沃尔玛首席执行官麦克米伦进行了交谈，沃尔玛将承担部分关税。 而关于美联储的立场，贝森特表示："美联储并未断言关税会导致通胀，他们只是说不确定，目前处于观望模 式。" 值得关注的是，近期，随着贸易紧张局势的缓和，美股持续反弹，不过也有华尔街分析师发出警告称，反弹可 能过度。到目前为止，贸易框架还远未达成协议。如果没有具体的贸易解决方案，市场波动可能会再次出现。 美国财长发声 贝森特声称，降级与拜登政府的支出政策有关，该政府曾将其吹捧为对优先事项的投资，包括应对气候变化和 增加医疗保险覆盖面。"我们不是在过去100天里陷入这种状况的。" 贝森特称，这是拜登政府及过去四年继承 的支出所致，"我们决心削减开支并推动经济增长"。 贝森特还透露，他周六与沃尔玛首席执行官道格·麦克米伦（Doug McMi ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the U.S.-China tariff negotiations are in three phases: the first phase is pessimistic, the second phase shows recovery, and the third phase remains a long-term "game" with a specific order and rhythm that should not be rushed. The progress and reduction of tariffs are better than market expectations, leading to significant inflows into U.S. stocks and improved market sentiment. Currently, comprehensive tariffs from the U.S. on China remain around 50% + 24% pending, suggesting that while the "deadlock has been broken," the "final outcome is still far off" [1] - In the context of major assets recovering to their April 3 highs, A-shares are expected to maintain a period of high-level fluctuations. The report suggests focusing less on indices and more on bottom-up performance opportunities, reducing chasing of rallies and preparing for the market in June and July [1][5] - The report ranks major asset classes for the third phase of tariffs, indicating that among QDII investable assets, German stocks are preferred over Japanese and Hong Kong stocks, followed by U.S. stocks and U.S. Treasuries. Gold is suggested for short-term trading opportunities around the 3100-3150 range [1][6] Group 2 - The A-share market is experiencing a strong rebound due to the easing of U.S.-China tariff agreements, but there is a risk of subsequent pullbacks as most broad indices have filled gaps from early April, limiting upward space. The report emphasizes a strong motivation for funds to realize gains [5][36] - The report highlights that the valuation of the CSI 300 has recovered to within one standard deviation, moving away from extreme undervaluation. It also notes that public fund positions have been adjusted downwards, and the market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations with a focus on structural opportunities in dividend stocks and sectors benefiting from domestic demand [5][36] - In the Hong Kong market, trading sentiment remains low, with net selling from southbound funds. The report indicates that the focus of increased buying is on defensive sectors, while technology stocks have seen significant net selling [39][40] Group 3 - The report indicates that the U.S. stock market is showing medium-level positions, with recent economic data being mixed and not supporting stagflation assumptions. The report suggests maintaining a wave trading strategy and being cautious about profit-taking [32][36] - The report notes that the Japanese stock market has seen a significant pullback, suggesting that investors should gradually take profits as the index approaches previous highs [33] - The report emphasizes that the overall sentiment in the Hong Kong market is pessimistic, with a shift towards defensive sectors and significant selling in technology stocks. The report also highlights the recent improvement in domestic economic fundamentals, which is favorable for the Hong Kong market [39][44] Group 4 - The report suggests a focus on high-dividend cash flow and small-cap technology stocks in the A-share market, indicating a "barbell" strategy for investment. It emphasizes the importance of sector selection, particularly in banking, electricity, innovative pharmaceuticals, and robotics [36][46] - The report indicates that the small-cap style is currently favored, with short-term market interest rates declining, benefiting small-cap performance. However, it warns of potential trading crowding risks in the CSI 2000 [47] - The report highlights the ongoing demand for gold as a hedge against tariffs and potential economic weakness in the U.S. in June, suggesting that gold remains a good choice for short-term trading opportunities [48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold [7]. Core Views - The easing of US-China tariffs is expected to positively impact metal demand, with a focus on the economic fundamentals following the tariff negotiations [1][2]. - Gold prices have fluctuated due to lower-than-expected US inflation and dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, indicating a potential for future price recovery depending on tariff negotiations [1][36]. - The copper market is cautious due to high tariff levels, but inventory reductions provide some support for prices [2]. - Aluminum prices are supported by low inventory levels and positive macro sentiment following substantial progress in US-China tariff talks [2]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have been affected by a 2.3% year-on-year increase in the US CPI for April, which was lower than expected, leading to a decrease in gold prices [1]. - Powell's comments suggest a higher tolerance for inflation, which may lead to fluctuations in gold prices based on tariff negotiations [1][36]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are under pressure due to ongoing tariff concerns, but a reduction in global copper inventory to 572,000 tons provides some support [2]. - Aluminum prices are buoyed by low inventory levels, with domestic social inventory dropping below 600,000 tons [2]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices have stabilized, with carbon lithium futures rising by 1.3% to 65,000 yuan/ton, while supply pressures are expected to persist [3]. - The lithium market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with a 9% decrease in carbon lithium production this week [3]. Key Companies to Watch - Recommended companies include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and others in the non-ferrous metals sector [1][2][3].

川普迫使对手妥协？专家警告市场波动 美国总统川普近期在访问中东国家期间，于阿拉伯联合大公国与企业高管会面时表示，美国将在「未来两到三周内」单方面对多国实施新的关税，且这一 关税税率将更高。 据《金融时报》报导，美国总统川普近期在访问中东国家期间，于阿拉伯联合大公国与企业高管会面时表示，美国将在「未来两到三周内」单方面对多国 实施新的关税，且这一关税税率将更高。他表示，财政部长贝森特（Scott Bessent）和商务部卢特尼克（Howard Lutnick）将「发送信函，基本上是通知各 国」，以明确各国「在美国做生意需要支付的费用」。 关税谈判进展缓慢 回顾今年4 月初，川普宣布行政命令，计画对所有进口商品征收至少10% 的普遍关税，并对多国实施更高的「对等关税」。不过或许由于关税对全球经济 带来的巨大冲击，随后川普宣布将关税生效时间延后90 天，仅维持10% 的基准关税，为美国与各国提供了谈判空间。 然而，时至今日，关税谈判的进展却显得非常缓慢。根据公开报导，美国目前仅与英国达成了一项有限的贸易协议；与此同时，美国与中国虽然也互砍关 税，美国将对中国商品的关税从145% 降至30%，中国则将对美国商品的关税 ...

Core Points - The EU and the US have officially begun tariff negotiations after a period of stalemate, with discussions covering tariffs, digital trade, and investment opportunities [1] - The EU has rejected the 10% tariff agreement reached between the US and the UK, indicating it will not serve as a template for their negotiations [2][5] - The EU has proposed a retaliatory tariff plan amounting to €95 billion, targeting US products such as Boeing aircraft, automobiles, and bourbon whiskey [2] Tariff Negotiation Focus and Stance - The US currently maintains a 25% additional tariff on EU steel, aluminum, and automobiles, with a recent announcement of a "reciprocal tariff" measure that raised tariffs on all European imports [3] - The EU has suspended €21 billion in retaliatory tariffs and reduced the "reciprocal tariff" from 20% to 10% until July 8 to facilitate negotiations [3] - EU officials emphasize the need for a calm approach and caution against yielding to US pressure for quick resolutions, with some US tariffs likely to remain, particularly in steel and automotive sectors [3] US Concerns and EU Response - The US has raised concerns regarding the EU's value-added tax, digital services regulations, food standards, and tariffs on certain US goods [4] - The EU has firmly stated it will not accept US demands to eliminate value-added tax or weaken digital regulations and taxation [5]

智通财经5月16日电，韩国贸易部长AHN SAYSHE表示，作为关税谈判的一部分，韩国代表团将于下周 访问美国进行技术会谈；已经与美国建立了正式的谈判框架。 ...

韩国贸易部长：代表团将于下周访美进行技术会谈，作为关税谈判的一部分。 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that the Fed is adjusting its overall policy framework, stating that zero interest rates are no longer a baseline scenario and that there is a need to reconsider the language around labor market slack and average inflation rates, with April PCE expected to drop to 2.2% [1] - Fed official Barr warned that while the U.S. economic fundamentals are solid, supply chain disruptions related to tariffs could lead to slower economic growth and rising inflation [1] - Barclays revised its forecast for U.S. economic growth from -0.3% to 0.5%, no longer expecting a recession in the second half of 2025 [1] Group 2: Global Economic Forecasts - Goldman Sachs raised its GDP growth forecast for South Korea in 2025 from 0.7% to 1.1% and for Vietnam from 5.3% to 5.5% [3] - The Bank of Mexico cut its interest rate by 50 basis points to 8.50%, with an expected average core inflation rate of 3.4% for the fourth quarter, up from a previous forecast of 3.3% [3] Group 3: Currency and Trade Developments - Reports suggest that the U.S. is considering unilaterally modifying its trade agreement with Japan during tariff negotiations [4] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 1,065 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, unchanged from previous levels [4] - Japan's first-quarter GDP fell short of expectations, leading markets to anticipate a delay in interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [4] - European Central Bank Governing Council member Kazaks stated there is no need to rush into rate cuts, indicating that market expectations for the next meeting are appropriate [4] - Barclays adjusted its Eurozone economic growth forecast from -0.2% to 0%, while cautioning that uncertainty risks remain [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices may experience short - term wide - range fluctuations due to factors such as low concentrate processing fees, stable domestic downstream demand, and the need to monitor US tariff negotiations, exchange rates, inventory, and basis changes [1]. - Zinc prices may also have short - term wide - range fluctuations. With the expected improvement in concentrate supply and potential recovery of smelting supply, the previous decline in zinc prices has partially digested the production growth expectation, and factors like US tariff negotiations and exchange rates need to be watched [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be mainly oscillating strongly in the short term. Although the demand for electrolytic aluminum is weakening, the better - than - expected result of the Sino - US tariff negotiation has a positive impact [1]. - Nickel prices may follow the non - ferrous sector and show an oscillatingly strong trend in the short term, as there are both positive and negative factors in the nickel market [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - session copper prices closed. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices are testing smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and improving, with high growth in power investment driven by the power grid, continuous growth in household appliance production, and potential for increased copper demand in the automotive sector due to higher new - energy penetration. The narrowing decline in real - estate data is also a factor. Short - term copper price fluctuations are affected by US tariff negotiations, exchange rates, inventory, and basis [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price data is unavailable. The domestic basis is 380 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 9,577 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is 39.74 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 184,650 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 925 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic automobile production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, household appliances are performing well, and the decline in real - estate data is narrowing. The market expects a significant improvement in concentrate supply this year and a possible recovery in smelting supply. The previous decline in zinc prices has partially digested the production growth expectation. Short - term zinc price fluctuations are influenced by US tariff negotiations, exchange rates, and smelting output [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 22,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is 195 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,725 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 22.38 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 165,175 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 1,875 tons [2]. Aluminum - The night - session main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed down 0.07%. The Sino - US tariff negotiation result is better than expected, which is beneficial to non - ferrous demand and prices. Fundamentally, the future supply - demand of alumina is expected to be loose, but some manufacturers have low profits and are undergoing maintenance. Further decline in futures prices requires a continued weakening of bauxite prices and the resumption of production by alumina manufacturers. The operating rate of most aluminum - processing sectors has declined slightly, and there is an expectation of reduced downstream orders. However, due to the better - than - expected tariff negotiation result, Shanghai aluminum is expected to be mainly oscillating strongly in the short term [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 20,290 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is 60 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,489 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 0.39 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 397,275 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 2,025 tons [2]. Nickel - The night - session main contract of Shanghai nickel closed up 0.16%. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is still tight, leading to rising nickel ore prices and cost transfer to downstream enterprises. The new Indonesian tariff policy may increase local nickel product prices. Precursor manufacturers have sufficient raw - material inventory and low purchasing enthusiasm, and nickel - salt enterprises have a production - reduction expectation, which may lead to a moderate increase in nickel - salt prices. Stainless - steel demand is mediocre, and prices are mainly oscillating. In the short term, nickel prices may follow the non - ferrous sector and show an oscillatingly strong trend [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 124,400 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 2,160 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 15,799 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 191.87 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 199,146 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 714 tons [2]. Lead - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 16,905 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 160 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,005 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 4.83 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 250,675 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 400 tons [2]. Tin - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 264,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is 750 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 32,974 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 127.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 2,745 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 30 tons [2].