国内白糖工业库存 巴西糖配额外进口利润 2000 ------ 19/20 ------- 20/21 ------ 21/22 ------ 22/23 ------ 22/23 ------- 23/24 - - 24/25 800 C 1500 1000 500 600 0 -500 -1000 400 -1500 -2000 -2500 200 =2017 == 2018 == 2020 2016 · 0 2021 · =2022 == 2023 = =2024 == 2025 10月 11月 12月 1月 2月 4月 5月 6月 7月 9月 3月 8月 柳州-01基差 郑糖1-5月差 500 1000 800 400 600 300 400 200 200 100 0 0 -200 -400 -100 -200 6月21日 7月21日 8月21日 9月21日 10月21日 11月21日 12月21日 5月21日 =SR1801-SR1805 =SR1901-SR1905 =SR2001-SR2005 SR1701-SR1705 = SR2101-SR2105 -- SR2201-SR2205 -- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being weak [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: weak. The reference view is weak operation [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: As domestic natural rubber production areas in Yunnan and Hainan are approaching the off - season, the supply of domestic full - latex is expected to decline. The downstream automobile production and sales data in the rubber market are optimistic. However, the macro - sentiment weakened due to the significantly worse - than - expected US September non - farm payrolls data released last weekend. The Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and weak trend in the night session last Friday, and are expected to maintain this trend on Monday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: weak. The reference view is weak operation [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: The recent macro - sentiment is okay, but the slight decline of domestic and international crude oil futures on Thursday night weakened the rebound momentum of synthetic rubber futures. The downstream automobile production and sales data in the rubber market are optimistic, and the synthetic rubber market has shifted from "expectation - driven" to "reality - dominated". The macro - sentiment weakened due to the significantly worse - than - expected US September non - farm payrolls data released last weekend. The domestic synthetic rubber futures showed an oscillatory and weak trend in the night session last Friday, and are expected to maintain a weak trend on Monday [7].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1、据卓创资讯数据监测统计，本周四双胶纸库存天数较上周四上升0.78%，本周增幅环比扩大0.24个百分点。出版订单尚未大规模提货，纸 厂库存消耗进度不快，且部分纸企为供应出版订单提前备库，导致行业处于累库状态。 2、据卓创资讯数据统计，本周双胶纸开工负荷率在51.90%，环比下降0.30个百分点，本周降幅环比收窄0.03个百分点。规模产线基本正常 排产，江苏地区仍存检修情况，市场开工水平整体调整不大。 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai Jun ...

2025 年 11月 23 日 香 商 临近注销期,关注近月 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 张 航 本周价格走势:工业硅盘面价格先涨后跌,现货价格上涨;多晶硅盘面先涨后跌,现货报价稳定 工业硅运行情况:本周工业硅盘面先涨后跌,周中市场交易有机硅股票好转带来的乐观预期,但周五受 宏观商品影响亦同步回落,周五收于 8960 元/吨。现货市场价格上涨，SMM 统计新疆 99 硅报价 9000 元/ 吨（环比+150),内蒙 99 硅报价 9150 元/吨(环比+50)。 多晶硅运行情况:本周多晶硅盘面先涨后跌,市场交易平台公司、政策等叙事,盘面再次上涨抬升,但 周五亦有所回落，周五盘面收于 53360 元/吨。多晶硅现货市场来看,上游报价持续坚挺,关注下游补库的 实际成交价格。 供需基本面:工业硅本周行业库存累库;多晶硅上游库存累库 88工业硅供给端，周度行业库存小幅累库。据咨询商统计，本周西南地区及新疆地区开工减少，甘肃开工 小增,整体周产环减。具体而言,西南地区10月底开始逐步减产,按照枯水期电价折算西南枯水期成本在 10000-10500元/吨,此将会带来进一步 ...

中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 美国 9 月份数据整体利空，但是此前已经有计价，数据情绪提前被交易。黄金短期 | | | 长线持有 | 大驱动较少，长线交易为主，避免陷入情绪交易。黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确 | | ★ | | 定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 白银跟随黄金上下波动，美联储态度和数据结果影响市场对于金银的交易，白银弹 | | 白银 | 长线持有 | 性大更大。长期来看白银基本面来看全球政策刺激白银需求，供需缺口持续变，宽 | | ★ | | 松货币投放提供流动性。关注 11500 附近支撑。长线多单持有 | | | | 美 9 月非农喜忧参半，新增就业超预期但失业率走高，美联储 12 月降息分歧严重， | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 海内外铜库存累库，铜隔夜高开低走，承压回落，关注下方 8 万 5 关口支撑，中长 | | ★ | | 期，铜依旧看多。 | | 锌 | | 锌供需双弱，消费淡季，国内锌锭出口窗口打开，海外伦锌库存增加，软挤仓风险 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Beans meal (short - term), Rapeseed meal (short - term), Rapeseed oil (short - term), Cotton (medium - to - long - term) [1] - **Bearish**: Palm oil, Red dates, Live pigs (near - term) [1] - **Neutral**: Soybean oil, Cotton (short - term) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Beans meal**: Short - term consolidation, look for short - term long opportunities after adjustment, focus on Brazilian soybean planting weather [1][3] - **Rapeseed meal**: Short - term stop - falling and consolidation, with a tendency to rebound, pay attention to the follow - up progress of China - Canada trade [1][6] - **Palm oil**: Weak consolidation, with inventory accumulation expected in November, hold off on going long for now [1][8] - **Soybean oil**: Short - term oscillation, limited adjustment space, look for long opportunities after adjustment [1] - **Rapeseed oil**: Short - term bullish, fundamental is strong, be cautious about shorting [1] - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish, short - term weak oscillation, consider range trading; medium - to - long - term, look for low - buying opportunities [1][12] - **Red dates**: Rebound under pressure, maintain a bearish attitude in the long - run, short - term wait - and - see [1][14] - **Live pigs**: Oscillate weakly in the near - term, consider rolling short - selling and reverse arbitrage; may enter a new cycle after H2 2026 [1][17] 3. Summaries by Variety Beans meal - **Market situation**: Futures price is 3017 yuan/ton, down 0.17%; national average spot price is 3079.71 yuan/ton, down 0.39% [2] - **Inventory**: As of November 14, 2025, national port soybean inventory is 992.6 million tons, down 40.8 million tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory is 747.71 million tons, down 1.87%; bean meal inventory is 99.29 million tons, down 0.57% [3] - **Analysis**: Brazilian rainfall is expected to be slightly lower than normal in the next 15 days. Spot oil mills' sales pressure is down. US - China soybean import tariff issue remains unresolved. Look for short - term long opportunities after adjustment [1][3] Rapeseed meal - **Market situation**: Futures price is 2412 yuan/ton, down 0.29%; national average spot price is 2500.53 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - **Inventory**: As of November 14, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory is 0 million tons; rapeseed meal inventory is 0.2 million tons, down 0.3 million tons week - on - week [6] - **Analysis**: Canada can't cancel tariffs on China, new Australian rapeseed will arrive at the port on November 22, bearish for market sentiment. But the contract rebounded after short - sellers took profits. It may stop falling and rebound [1][6] Palm oil - **Market situation**: Futures price is 8646 yuan/ton, down 2.33%; national average price is 8755 yuan/ton, down 1.16% [7] - **Inventory**: As of November 14, 2025, national commercial inventory is 65.32 million tons, up 9.36% week - on - week [8] - **Analysis**: Malaysian palm oil exports in the first 20 days of November weakened, price fell. Inventory accumulation is expected in November, hold off on going long [1][8] Cotton - **Market situation**: Futures price of main contract (CF2601) is 13465 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; US cotton main contract is 63.78 cents/pound, down 0.15% [9] - **Inventory**: National commercial inventory is 328.24 million tons, up 43 million tons; Xinjiang commercial inventory is 270.51 million tons, up 39 million tons [9] - **Analysis**: USDA's negative data increased the global stock - to - use ratio, pressuring US cotton. Domestic supply is high, but new cotton sales are fast. Short - term range trading, medium - to - long - term low - buying [1][12] Red dates - **Market situation**: Futures price of main contract (CJ2601) is 9300 yuan/ton, up 0.11% [13] - **Inventory**: 36 sample enterprises' inventory is 9840 tons, up 299 tons week - on - week [13][14] - **Analysis**: New jujube production is expected to be 500,000 - 600,000 tons, supply is excessive. Maintain a bearish attitude, short - term wait - and - see [1][14] Live pigs - **Market situation**: Futures price of main contract (lh2601) is 11440 yuan/ton, down 1.04%; national average spot price is 11810 yuan/ton, up 0.60% [15] - **Inventory**: National sample enterprise pig inventory is 3844.62 million heads, up 0.15%; slaughter volume is 11.9653 million heads, up 11.85% [15] - **Analysis**: Near - term supply is loose, Q4 will see cost - based competition. Long - term, a new cycle may start after H2 2026 [1][17]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For gold, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "oscillating", the intraday view is "oscillating and slightly stronger", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". The core logic is that the Fed has turned hawkish and the expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased. Also, the U.S. non - farm payroll data exceeded market expectations, initially leading to a positive market atmosphere but later a general decline in assets. [1][3] - For copper, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "strong", the intraday view is "oscillating and slightly stronger", and the reference view is "long - term bullish". The core logic is macro - level easing and mine - end production cuts. Additionally, after the U.S. September non - farm payroll data was released, market sentiment fluctuated, and the spot copper trading improved with a slight decrease in social inventory. [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **Price Movement**: The market style switches frequently in the short - term. Initially, the market was optimistic with strong performance in stocks and commodities, but later assets showed a general decline. [3] - **Core Logic**: The U.S. non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, the U.S. economy was better than expected, the market's interest rate cut expectation increased, the U.S. dollar index declined, and the U.S. Treasury yield decreased. Technically, the support at the $4000 mark for New York gold and the 920 - yuan mark for Shanghai gold can be observed. [3] Copper (CU) - **Price Movement**: The copper price opened high and closed low last night, and the main contract price fell below the 86,000 - yuan mark. [4] - **Core Logic**: After the U.S. September non - farm payroll data was released, the market risk preference decreased. In the industry, the spot trading improved, and the social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased slightly on Thursday. Technically, the support at the 86,000 - yuan mark should be noted. [4]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 11 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 供需格局弱稳，钢价延续震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 服 务 国 家 走 向 ...

数据来源:SMM WIND | 碳酸锂日评20251121:谨防冲高回落 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期(日) | 2025-11-20 | 2025-11-19 | 2025-11-13 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 近月合约 | 收盘价 | 98880.00 | 99060.00 | 86400.00 | -180.00 | | | | | 99300.00 | 87660.00 | 连一合约 | 收盘价 | 98980.00 | -320.00 | 14 - | 99160.00 | 87840.00 | 收盘价 | 99300.00 | -140.00 | 连二合约 | | | | 收盘价 | -140.00 | 连三合约 | 99160.00 | 99300.00 | 87620.00 | 2 | 99300.00 | -320.00 | 收盘价 | 98980.00 | ...

2025 年 11 月 21 日 沥青：跟随原油弱势运行 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2601 | 元/吨 | 3,058 | 0.43% | 3,058 | 0.00% | | | BU2602 | 元/吨 | 3,073 | 0.16% | 3,070 | -0.10% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | 期货 | BU2601 | 手 | 317,665 | 135,611 | 172,183 | (8,998) | | | BU2602 | 手 | 71,605 | 34,168 | 99,962 | (3,168) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 30110 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | ...