美联储保尔森：若通胀降温，美联储或可进一步降息。不会立即出台任何额外降息举措。 乌克兰军事情报局局长布达诺夫表示，他接受乌克兰总统泽连斯基的邀请，领导总统办公室。 数据显示，1月5日上海白银现货价格报价18280元/千克，相较于期货主力价格(18247元/千克)升水33元/ 千克。 委内瑞拉局势——①美对委发起"三小时闪电战"，代号"绝对决心"。②委副总统代行总统职权。③特朗 普威胁委代理总统，还称"绝对需要格陵兰岛"。④美国解除加勒比海空域限制。⑤欧盟发布有关声明， 未谴责美国。⑥马杜罗预计于当地时间5日在纽约"首次出庭"。 丹麦首相敦促特朗普停止威胁接管格陵兰岛。此前美高官妻子暗示很快拿下格陵兰岛。 【白银期货最新行情】 1月5日 收盘价(元/千克) 当日涨跌幅 成交量(手) 持仓量(手) 沪银主力 18247 1.16% 671811 238881 【机构观点】 芝加哥交易所一周内第二次上调保证金，银价大幅回落，假期内地缘冲突频发，美国空袭委内瑞拉，假 日后早间银价再度明显反弹。沪银溢价扩大至800元/克，沪银将补涨早间涨幅。银价大幅反弹，情绪依 旧强劲，地缘担忧下有支撑，但支撑或较为短暂，震荡为主。沪 ...

Core Viewpoint - CICC forecasts that the capital return rate of listed banks in Hong Kong will remain at a high level of 10% to 17% by 2026, supported by strong tangible net asset return rates and a dividend and buyback return rate of approximately 7% [1] Group 1 - In the past year, Hong Kong bank stocks have performed well, primarily due to an unexpected increase in tangible net asset return rates [1] - CICC anticipates that the market will enter a rate-cutting cycle this year, with the Federal Reserve's December dot plot indicating potential rate cuts of 1 to 2 times in 2026 and 0 to 1 time in 2027, leading to a rate drop to 3% [1] - Despite expectations of a narrowing net interest margin for Hong Kong banks due to the anticipated rate cuts, the decline in net interest income is expected to remain in the low single digits, supported by slight asset growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Producer Price Index (PPI) serves as a leading indicator for the Consumer Price Index (CPI), influencing currency exchange rates through its impact on inflation and monetary policy [1]. Group 1: Transmission Mechanisms - Positive Transmission: Rising PPI indicates increased production costs, leading to higher CPI, prompting potential interest rate hikes by the central bank, which can strengthen the domestic currency [1]. - Blocked Transmission: If PPI rises but CPI remains stable due to competitive market pressures, the central bank may not need to raise rates, resulting in a lack of significant currency movement [2]. - Negative Transmission: Continuous negative PPI growth suggests economic contraction, leading to potential interest rate cuts and depreciation of the domestic currency [3]. Group 2: PPI Structure Analysis - Input-driven PPI Increase: If PPI rises due to higher import prices of commodities, it may worsen trade balances and not lead to currency appreciation, potentially causing depreciation [4]. - Demand-driven PPI Increase: A rise in PPI due to strong domestic demand can lead to higher CPI, increasing the likelihood of interest rate hikes and strengthening the domestic currency [5]. Group 3: Key Influencing Variables - Market Reaction to PPI: The foreign exchange market's response to PPI data is primarily based on the deviation of actual values from market expectations rather than the data's absolute changes [6]. - Significant Positive Deviation: A much higher-than-expected PPI can heighten inflation and interest rate hike expectations, leading to a rapid appreciation of the domestic currency [6]. - Significant Negative Deviation: A much lower-than-expected PPI can alleviate inflation concerns, potentially leading to interest rate cuts and a weakening of the domestic currency [7]. Group 4: Long-term Implications of PPI and CPI Divergence - Persistent PPI above CPI: This scenario can squeeze corporate profits, suppressing investment and income growth, which may hinder long-term economic growth [10]. - Persistent PPI below CPI: This situation can expand corporate profits but may create inflationary pressures, requiring the central bank to balance growth and inflation [10]. Group 5: Summary of PPI's Impact on Currency - Short-term Impact: The effect of PPI on currency is influenced by the deviation from expectations, with unexpected increases in demand-driven PPI likely to strengthen the currency, while input-driven increases or lower-than-expected PPI may suppress it [11]. - Long-term Impact: The transmission of PPI to CPI is crucial; smooth transmission leading to policy adjustments can result in currency fluctuations, while blocked transmission diminishes PPI's influence on currency [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that silver prices are experiencing fluctuations, with paper silver trading above 16.864, opening at 16.926, and showing a 4.69% increase [1] - The dollar index has continued its rebound, reaching a near two-week high, which is putting pressure on silver prices [1] - The market is anticipating key economic data, particularly the non-farm payroll report, to assess the true state of the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's policy direction [1] Group 2 - The current discussion around interest rate cuts, alongside concerns about U.S. debt risks and trade policies, is contributing to the macro backdrop that supports the rise in silver prices [1] - Technical analysis shows that paper silver prices are in an upward trend, with the Bollinger Bands indicating a reduction in upward momentum [2] - Support levels for paper silver are noted between 15.50 and 16.50, while resistance levels are identified between 16.70 and 17.50 [2]

今日优选 美军"闪击"委内瑞拉，马杜罗预计5日在纽约"首次出庭" 沙特空袭也门东部迈赫拉省 特朗普威胁要就伊朗骚乱事件进行干涉 欧佩克+八国同意第一季度暂停增产 美联储保尔森：不会立即出台任何额外降息举措 超越特斯拉！比亚迪问鼎2025年全球纯电销量冠军 国家大基金大比例增持中芯国际H股 男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 新年首个交易日，美股三大股指走势分化，道指收盘涨0.66%，标普500指数涨0.19%，纳指跌0.03%，盘中一度涨超1%。芯片股飙升，美光科技(MU.O)涨超 10%，英特尔(INTC.O)涨6.7%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数大涨4.38%，百度(BIDU.O)涨超15%，阿里巴巴(BABA.N)涨6.2%。 港股2026年首个交易日迎来开门红。香港恒生指数收复26000点关口，收涨2.76%，报26338.47点；恒生科技指数涨幅4%，报5736.44点；。从板块表现来 看，市场呈现普涨态势，生物医药、科网、黄金、银行、券商等多个赛道联袂走高。其中科网股表现亮眼，百度集团涨9.35%，网 ...

来源：环球市场播报 华尔街押注降息潮的到来与强劲的企业盈利，足以推动美股再录得一年上涨。 2023至2025年，标普500指数及其他美国主要股指已连续三年实现两位数百分比涨幅。步入牛市第四 年，众多大盘股的估值已处高位，经济前景也更趋模糊。当前市场虽不乏积极因素，令投资者与分析师 抱有期待，但部分人士担忧，这些利好不足以支撑股市延续2025年的上涨势头。 至少相较于以往的市场周期，本轮牛市已步入尾声。若标普500指数在2026年实现连续第四年上涨，这 将成为自2007年以来最长的连涨周期——彼时该基准指数曾完成过一波为期五年的上涨行情。据道琼斯 市场数据统计，在该指数的历史上，连续四年及以上上涨的走势仅出现过五次。 未来数日，投资者将通过12月非农就业报告，再次审视美国经济的健康状况。企业也即将开启新一轮财 报季，摩根大通、富国银行、花旗集团等大型银行的业绩报告都将在未来几周内陆续发布。 2025年的这轮涨势并非仅局限于美股。黄金与白银价格创下了自1979年以来的最佳年度表现，债券市场 也迎来了2020年以来的最好行情。散户投资者掀起的新一轮投机热潮，催生了一批新的迷因股，还推动 期权交易量再度刷新历史纪录。 ...

Core Viewpoint - HSBC forecasts that China will implement a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut by 2026, supported by a series of easing policies and resilient exports, aiming for a 5% economic growth in 2025 [1] Economic Growth Outlook - Global economic growth is expected to remain stable in 2026, with a slowdown in trade export growth, while strong investments in artificial intelligence will support investment and trade growth in the next two years [1] - China is projected to achieve around 5% economic growth in 2025, aided by easing policies introduced since Q4 2024 and resilient export performance [1] Structural Transformation - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," where China will continue its structural transformation and maintain reasonable growth, with domestic demand, including consumption and investment, becoming the main driver of growth [1] Fiscal Policy - The Central Economic Work Conference has proposed maintaining a necessary fiscal deficit, with HSBC estimating the fiscal deficit rate target for 2026 to remain at a relatively high level of 4% [1] - The issuance scale of local government special bonds and special treasury bonds is expected to be similar to that of 2025 to support consumption and major project investments [1] Monetary Policy - There is potential for a further interest rate cut of 20 basis points in 2026, along with a possible reserve requirement ratio cut of 50 basis points [1]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices opened slightly higher but turned to decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.03%, S&P 500 down 0.05%, and Nasdaq down 0.08% [1] - Individual stocks showed mixed results, with Nvidia opening up over 1% after announcing a $5 billion acquisition of Intel shares through a private placement [1] - Nike shares rose over 2% following news that Apple CEO Tim Cook significantly increased his stake in the company by purchasing approximately 50,000 shares, raising his ownership by 90% [1] - Trump Media & Technology Group saw a rise of over 6% after announcing plans to distribute digital tokens to shareholders [1] - Chinese stocks showed a mixed performance, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index declining over 1%, and NIO dropping over 8% while XPeng and Li Auto fell more than 4% [1] Economic Indicators - International precious metals experienced volatility, with spot gold rising slightly while silver's decline narrowed to 2.95% [2] - The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims fell by 16,000 to 199,000, marking one of the lowest levels this year, which reflects the typical volatility during the holiday season [2] - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes indicated that most officials believe further rate cuts would be appropriate if inflation decreases as expected, although some officials suggested maintaining rates for a period [2] - The minutes from the December 9-10 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting highlighted internal divisions within the Fed and the challenges faced in recent decision-making [2]

"哈塞特作为一段时间以来的领跑者，其当选基本已被市场消化；但沃什或沃勒上任后可能不会那么快 降息，对美元更为有利，"Monex Inc外汇交易员Andrew Hazlett表示。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 野村外汇策略师Yusuke Miyairi表示："美联储将是第一季度美元走势的最大影响因素。不仅是1月和3月 的会议，也包括杰罗姆·鲍威尔任期结束后谁将接任美联储主席。" 由于市场已将明年至少两次降息计入价格，美国的政策路径与部分发达国家同行出现分歧，进一步削弱 了美元的吸引力。 数据显示，美元布仓短暂看多后，本月恢复悲观立场；自4月份关税引发对于美国经济的担忧以来，对 美元的悲观看法持续主导市场。 美元势将录得八年来最大的年度跌幅，投资者认为，若下一任美联储主席如预期般采取较为深度的降息 措施，美元将进一步走弱。 目前来看，一切都取决于美联储的动向，以及将由谁来接替鲍威尔。 今年迄今，彭博美元即期指数已下跌8.1%。在特朗普4月宣布"解放日"关税后美元大跌，随后随着他激 进地行动，以确保明年任命一位鸽派人士担任美联储主席，美元持续承压。 由于市场已将明年至少两次降息计入价格，美国的政策路径与 ...

投资者静待年末经济数据出炉并为新年持仓做梳理，美国 10 年期国债收益率周三小幅下行。 截至美国东部时间凌晨 4：10，10 年期美债收益率下跌 1 个基点，报 4.112%；2 年期美债收益率同样 走低约 1 个基点，最新报 3.446%。 经济数据方面，美国截至 12 月 27 日当周的首次申领失业金人数数据，将于美国东部时间上午 8：30 发 布。 这是2025 年最后一项重磅经济数据，投资者将通过这份数据进一步寻找美联储未来货币政策利率路径 的线索。 美联储周二公布了 12 月 9-10 日货币政策会议纪要，此次会议最终投票决定再次降息，而纪要显示，本 次降息投票的分歧程度，比最终投票结果体现的更为激烈。 会议纪要发布后，美股维持小幅下跌走势，交易员小幅上调了对美联储明年 4 月再度降息的押注。 责任编辑：郭明煜 投资者静待年末经济数据出炉并为新年持仓做梳理，美国 10 年期国债收益率周三小幅下行。 截至美国东部时间凌晨 4：10，10 年期美债收益率下跌 1 个基点，报 4.112%；2 年期美债收益率同样 走低约 1 个基点，最新报 3.446%。 | SYMBOL | ← | COMPANY | ...