中信证券：出海可能是新的方向 A股继港股后也逐步转为增量市场，最重要的是不断寻找新的存在预期差且未来能够形成资金共识的板块，半 年报季后的出海可能是新的方向。从半年报预告来看，出海依旧是强劲的业绩超预期线索之一。从过去几年的 经验来看，出海对企业ROE和利润率的抬升作用明显，出海本身也是积极"反内卷"并提高利润率的一种形式； 从未来的趋势来看，一旦讲通全球收入敞口逻辑，会带来股票端配置的稳定性和估值溢价，这是新兴市场跨入 成熟市场的必经之路。 今年出海作为业绩最好的线索之一，却因为贸易战导致行情剧烈波动且一直呈现零散的自下而上驱动状态，随 着8月后贸易战预期逐步稳定、半年报季结束，出海可能会再次形成板块性行情。配置上，从当下到半年报季 结束，依然建议围绕恒科、有色、通信、创新药、军工和游戏轮动，当下更偏恒生科技。 国泰海通：科技主题仍是主线 6月以来主题交易热度持续回升，热点主题结构分化。海外云厂商业绩指引乐观叠加英伟达CEO黄仁勋来华的 积极表态，维持推升AI产业相关主题热度且有显著资金净流入，近期活跃的创新药主题再度走强；"反内卷"政 策催化密集，但市场强分歧下股价波动加剧，稳定币与跨境支付主题有所回调。 ...

Weekend Major Events - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, aiming to construct five cascade power stations primarily for power transmission and local consumption in Tibet [1] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission announced the establishment of China Yajiang Group Co., Ltd., which will be managed by the State Council [2] Regulatory Actions - The State Administration for Market Regulation conducted administrative talks with major food delivery platforms, urging them to comply with relevant laws and promote rational competition to foster a healthy ecosystem in the food service industry [3] Industry Development Plans - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to release a work plan to stabilize growth in ten key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, focusing on structural adjustments and eliminating outdated production capacity [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting innovation in future industries such as humanoid robots, the metaverse, and brain-computer interfaces, aiming to cultivate new industries and develop new growth drivers [6] - A meeting was held to discuss the regulation of the new energy vehicle industry, emphasizing price monitoring and shortening supplier payment terms to ensure product safety and quality [7] Market Analysis and Predictions - CITIC Securities suggests that the "going abroad" strategy may be a new direction for A-shares, with strong performance expected from companies expanding internationally, particularly as trade war expectations stabilize [9] - CITIC Construction Investment anticipates a continuation of structural market trends, with new sectors being crucial for investment success, while traditional sectors may underperform [10] - Guotai Junan highlights that the market is transitioning to seek new scenarios as the mid-year earnings season concludes, with domestic ROE recovery becoming clearer [12] - Shenwan Hongyuan notes that A-shares maintain strength due to stable capital market policies and a connection between short-term economic highlights and mid-term supply-demand improvements [13] - Dongfang Caifu emphasizes that the market is likely to experience a slow bull trend, with "anti-involution" policies providing support for overcapacity industries [14] - Xinda Strategy indicates that the recent performance of cyclical stocks may signal the mid-term upward trend of the bull market [15] - Everbright Strategy predicts that the market may reach new highs in the second half of the year, driven by fundamental and liquidity factors [16] - China Galaxy suggests that the A-share market is likely to maintain a volatile upward trend, with a focus on policy areas following the upcoming Central Political Bureau meeting [18] - Huaxi Securities believes a new round of upward momentum is underway, with a focus on high-growth sectors and stable dividend assets for long-term investment [19]

Core Viewpoint - The article summarizes significant recent events and the latest assessments from securities analysts regarding the A-share market's future direction, highlighting a positive outlook driven by various factors including structural changes and policy support [1][12]. Group 1: Major Events - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, focusing on power delivery and local consumption needs [2]. - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission announced the establishment of China Yajiang Group Co., Ltd., which will be managed by the State Council [3]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation conducted talks with major food delivery platforms to ensure rational competition and compliance with relevant laws [4]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to release a work plan to stabilize growth in ten key industries, including steel and petrochemicals [5]. - A special action to combat the smuggling of strategic minerals has been initiated by the National Export Control Work Coordination Mechanism [6]. Group 2: Securities Analysts' Insights - CITIC Securities suggests that "going overseas" is a way to counteract domestic competition, with expectations for a sector rally post mid-year reporting season, particularly in technology and materials [13]. - CITIC Jiantou emphasizes the continuation of structural market differentiation, with new sectors being crucial for investment success [14]. - Guotai Junan highlights that the market is transitioning to seek new scenarios, with domestic ROE recovery becoming clearer [16]. - Shenwan Hongyuan notes that A-shares maintain strength due to stable capital market policies and a connection between short-term highlights and mid-term supply-demand improvements [17]. - Dongfang Caifu indicates that the market is likely to maintain a slow upward trend, with a focus on sectors benefiting from domestic consumption and technological advancements [18]. - Xinda Strategy points out that the recent performance of cyclical stocks may signal the onset of a mid-term bull market [19]. - Everbright Strategy anticipates that the market may reach new highs, driven by fundamental and liquidity factors [21]. - China Galaxy suggests that the A-share market is likely to maintain a stable upward trend, with a focus on policy signals from upcoming meetings [23]. - Huaxi Securities believes a new upward trend is underway, emphasizing high-growth sectors and stable dividend assets as key investment areas [24].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Insights - The sports brands reported steady growth in Q2 2025, with Anta Sports, Li Ning, and other brands showing varying degrees of year-on-year growth [3][14] - Anta's retail sales for its main brand, FILA, and other brands grew by low single digits, mid single digits, and 50-55% respectively, although there was a slight slowdown compared to Q1 [3][14] - Li Ning's overall sales (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) achieved low single-digit growth, with a net increase of 11 stores in Q2 [3][14] - Xtep International's main brand saw low single-digit growth, while Saucony exceeded 20% growth [3][14] - 361 Degrees reported approximately 10% growth for its main brand and children's clothing, with e-commerce growth around 20% [3][14] Summary by Sections Weekly Investment Insights - The consumer sector is expected to benefit from policy support and a recovery in domestic demand, with recommendations to focus on major home appliances, pet products, small appliances, and brand apparel [5][20] - Key companies to watch include Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric, Anta Sports, Li Ning, and 361 Degrees [5][20] Market Data - The home appliance sector saw a weekly increase of 1.5%, with specific segments like white goods and small appliances showing positive growth [21] - The textile and apparel sector increased by 0.24%, with cotton prices rising by 1.59% to 15,508 RMB per ton [23][21] Industry News - Pop Mart, a trendy toy company, announced a significant increase in revenue and net profit for Q2, while Ciele Athletics entered the Chinese market through a partnership with a major sports retailer [37][39] Upstream Tracking - The report includes tracking of raw material prices and shipping trends, which are crucial for understanding cost pressures in the industry [6.1][6.2][6.3]

宏观·要闻 1—6月全国吸收外资4232.3亿元人民币 据商务部网站消息，2025年1—6月，全国新设立外商投资企业30014家，同比增长11.7%；实际使用外 资金额4232.3亿元人民币，同比下降15.2%。 从行业看，制造业实际使用外资1090.6亿元人民币，服务业实际使用外资3058.7亿元人民币。高技术产 业实际使用外资1278.7亿元人民币，其中，电子商务服务业、化学药品制造业、航空航天器及设备制造 业、医疗仪器设备及器械制造业实际使用外资分别增长127.1%、53%、36.2%、17.7%。 重要会议召开：战略矿产走私出口"零容忍、出重拳" 据商务部网站消息，2025年7月19日，国家出口管制工作协调机制办公室组织商务部、公安部等单位， 在广西南宁召开打击战略矿产走私出口专项行动推进会，总结通报前期进展成效，全面分析当前打私形 势，对专项行动进行再部署、再推进。 会议指出，专项行动启动以来，各有关部门深入贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，成立专班、迅速行 动，制定方案、明确任务，对战略矿产走私出口"零容忍、出重拳"，不断加大执法办案力度，侦办了一 批战略矿产非法出口案件，抓获了一批走私犯罪嫌疑人， ...

Core Insights - The article highlights significant developments in the global expansion of companies, particularly focusing on TikTok's negotiations in Canada, Blackstone's withdrawal from the TikTok US acquisition, and the rapid localization efforts of Temu in the UK [3][5][9][11]. Group 1: TikTok Developments - TikTok is urgently seeking negotiations with the Canadian government to avoid the shutdown of its local operations, which were ordered due to national security concerns [5]. - Blackstone has reportedly exited the consortium aimed at acquiring TikTok's US operations, adding uncertainty to the ongoing negotiations [9]. Group 2: Temu's Expansion - Temu plans to increase the proportion of local orders in the UK to 50% by the end of 2025, currently boasting 22 million users in the region [11]. - The platform has seen a 68% year-over-year increase in global monthly active users, reaching 417 million, with Latin America showing a remarkable 122% growth [11][12]. Group 3: SHEIN and Manus - SHEIN's India app has surpassed 2 million downloads within six months of its relaunch, with over 20,000 products available on the platform [14]. - Manus has disclosed its technical experiences while transitioning to overseas markets but did not address the reasons for its exit from China [16][17]. Group 4: Company Challenges - The lawnmower robot company Supoman has filed for bankruptcy, attributed to technological stagnation and declining market share [19]. - Inditex plans to reintroduce its budget brand Lefties in France to compete with low-cost rivals like SHEIN [25]. Group 5: Investment and Financing - Several Chinese venture capital firms are restarting USD fundraising, targeting over $2 billion, focusing on AI and new consumer sectors [32][34]. - Substack has completed a $100 million Series C funding round, increasing its valuation by nearly 70% since 2021 [34][35]. Group 6: Market Entries and Regulations - Couche-Tard has abandoned its $47 billion acquisition of Seven & i Holdings due to negotiation breakdowns [27]. - Thailand has classified 19 e-commerce platforms, including Shopee and Lazada, as "high-risk," subjecting them to mandatory regulations [31].

Group 1: Foreign Investment - In the first half of 2025, China attracted foreign investment amounting to 423.23 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 15.2% [1] - A total of 30,014 new foreign-invested enterprises were established, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [1] - The manufacturing sector attracted 109.06 billion RMB, while the service sector attracted 305.87 billion RMB [1] - High-tech industries received 127.87 billion RMB in foreign investment, with significant growth in e-commerce services (127.1%), chemical pharmaceuticals (53%), aerospace equipment (36.2%), and medical instruments (17.7%) [1] Group 2: Regulatory Developments - The People's Bank of China released a draft regulation to standardize interbank market brokerage activities, prohibiting brokerage institutions from participating in primary bond issuance and over-the-counter bond business [3] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced a pilot program for the continuation of corporate bond issuance and the expansion of asset-backed securities, aimed at meeting reasonable financing needs and enhancing market liquidity [4] Group 3: Corporate Performance - Over 1,500 listed companies in A-shares have disclosed their half-year performance forecasts, with 676 companies expecting positive results, accounting for approximately 43% [5] - 26 companies anticipate a net profit increase exceeding 1,000% [5] - 193 companies are expected to turn losses into profits, with positive forecasts concentrated in hardware, chemicals, and machinery sectors [5] Group 4: Industry Meetings and Actions - A meeting was held by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the State Administration for Market Regulation to discuss the regulation of the electric vehicle industry, with 17 major automotive companies in attendance [8] - The Ministry of Commerce organized a meeting to combat the smuggling of strategic minerals, emphasizing a "zero tolerance" policy and increased law enforcement efforts [2] Group 5: Mergers and Acquisitions - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the merger of China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation and China Shipbuilding Heavy Industry Corporation, allowing for the issuance of 3.053 billion new shares [10] Group 6: New Listings and IPOs - Hangzhou Yushu Technology Co., Ltd. has completed its listing counseling filing with the Zhejiang Securities Regulatory Bureau [11] - Bullish Company, involved in cryptocurrency trading and media, has submitted registration documents for an IPO on the New York Stock Exchange [12]

Group 1 - The performance of A-shares is expected to benefit from overseas expansion, which is a strong indicator of exceeding expectations in earnings [1] - The market is transitioning to seek new scenarios as the mid-year earnings forecast season comes to an end [2] - A-shares are anticipated to show a slight upward trend in July, supported by stable export conditions and potential breakthroughs in technology sectors [3] Group 2 - The domestic economic recovery path is becoming clearer, with factors such as anti-involution policies and the relative advantage of A-shares compared to other markets [2] - The equity market is likely to maintain a strong oscillating trend due to positive signals from domestic policies and improving earnings in certain sectors [4] - Key investment areas include technology growth sectors, traditional cyclical industries benefiting from policy changes, and financial sectors with high dividend yields [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the A-share market is gradually transitioning into an incremental market, similar to the Hong Kong stock market, with a focus on identifying sectors with expected discrepancies that can form consensus among investors [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The upcoming earnings season may present opportunities for companies expanding overseas, which has shown to be a strong indicator of performance exceeding expectations [1] - Historical data suggests that overseas expansion significantly enhances companies' Return on Equity (ROE) and profit margins, serving as a proactive measure against domestic competition and improving profitability [1] - The logic of global revenue exposure is expected to provide stability in stock allocation and valuation premiums, marking a necessary transition for emerging markets into mature markets [1] Group 2: Current Market Conditions - Despite being a key performance indicator this year, overseas expansion has faced volatility due to trade wars, resulting in a fragmented bottom-up driving state [1] - As expectations regarding trade wars stabilize post-August and the earnings season concludes, there is potential for overseas expansion to generate a sector-wide market trend [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a focus on sectors such as aerospace, non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, innovative pharmaceuticals, military industry, and gaming, with a current preference for Hang Seng Technology [1]

Summary of ShengTian Network Conference Call Company Overview - ShengTian Network is focusing on three main business segments: scene business, gaming business, and social platform [2][3][4] Key Points and Arguments Scene Business - The company is transitioning from traditional internet cafes to e-sports hotels and cloud gaming, covering PC, Web, and large-screen terminals [3][4] - The company provides SaaS services for cloud gaming and has extended into advertising [3] - There has been a rebound in internet cafe numbers post-pandemic, contributing to short-term revenue and profit [2][3] Gaming Business - ShengTian Network has acquired game IP operation capabilities through mergers and has successfully launched mobile and C-end games [2][3] - Plans for 2025 include launching a pet-catching SLG hybrid game and "Dynasty Warriors 8," with several games signed for the Steam platform [2][3][4] - The gaming segment is expected to become a significant pillar of future performance [3][4] Social Platform - The "DaiDai" product has provided stable revenue, with increased demand for companionship and cloud social services driven by PC traffic growth [2][4] - The "GeiMai" platform is an AI application content trial platform, enhancing model selection, tuning, and localization capabilities [2][4] AI Initiatives - ShengTian Network is actively investing in AI, including AI glasses and smart cockpit hardware, and developing AI applications on the GeiMai platform [2][5] - The company has built strong application capabilities, optimizing computing power and training for specific vertical materials [5] - To address the challenge of low payment acceptance for AI applications in China, the company has launched virtual podcast and companionship services [6][7] International Market Opportunities - The overseas market shows a strong willingness to pay for AI applications, with high profit margins in vertical products [8] - The company has launched two overseas products: an AI social product and an AI tool product, both achieving initial success [8] - Plans to enhance international competitiveness include launching the AI game "YanLing QiYue" overseas [3][8] Market Trends - The PC gaming market has shown signs of recovery, driven by the release of multi-platform games and an increase in 3A titles [14] - The company is expanding its internet cafe presence to attract more users, particularly women, and modernizing the environment [14] Future Outlook - ShengTian Network aims to improve its industry ranking and become a top player by 2026, despite regulatory challenges [19][20] - The company expects stable operations in the coming quarters, with support from Alibaba to boost revenue [25] - Upcoming game releases include a hybrid pet game and "Dynasty Warriors 8," with a focus on overseas distribution [27][28] Additional Insights - The gaming companionship market has three main demands: team formation, leveling assistance, and emotional support [15][16] - Modern social needs are diverse, with many seeking short-term companionship and shared experiences through the internet [17][18] - The company is focusing on AI social companionship products with diverse character designs to enhance user experience [9][10] Conclusion - ShengTian Network is strategically positioning itself across multiple segments, leveraging AI and gaming to drive future growth while addressing challenges in domestic and international markets [2][3][4][5][8][19][20]