镍与不锈钢日评20251121:考验支撑有效性 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-11-20 | 2025-11-19 | 2025-11-13 | 近两周走势 | 较昨日变化 | 1 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 115250.00 | 115650.00 | 118500.00 | -400.00 | 1 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 115380.00 | 115830.00 | 118930.00 | -450.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 1 | 期货连二合约 | 119100.00 | 收盘价 | 115580.00 | 115980.00 | -400.00 | | | | | 1 | 115940.00 | 119340.00 | -320.00 | 期货连三合约 | 收盘价 | 116260.00 | 1 | 115380.00 | 115650.00 | 118930.00 | -270.00 | ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 21 日 PVC：不宜追空，低位震荡 | | 陈嘉昕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | chenjiaxin2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | PVC 基本面数据 | | | | | 01合约期货价格 | 华东现货价格 | 基差 | 1-5月差 | | 4456 | 4420 | -36 | -311 | 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 【现货消息】 国内 PVC 盘中价格持续震荡下跌，受房产市场需求预期偏弱，相关大宗价格预期持续偏空，叠加现货 供应表现充足，加重市场短期看弱预期，现货受成本支撑表现坚挺，实盘成交重心降幅有限，华东地区电石 法五型现汇库提在 4400-4500 元/吨，乙烯法在 4500-4650 元/吨。 【市场状况分析】 PVC 期货跌至历史低位水平，且绝对估值处于低位，部分装置因亏损幅度较大，存在减产预期，因此短 期不宜追空。不过冬季仍是氯碱企业检修淡季，即使存在新增检修，其规模或有限，对 03 合约之前的期货 合约而言，仍然面临高开工、弱需求的格局 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - The market has support at the bottom, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and tire operating rates are at a high level [4] 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply starts to increase; downstream consumption is high, with seasonal rebounds in automobile production and sales and tire production reaching a new high in the same period, but tire industry exports are declining [4][23][26][29][32] - **Inventory**: Exchange inventories (warehouse receipts) are seasonally cancelled, Qingdao area inventories have recently rebounded, and import volumes have declined [14][17][20] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) fell on November 20th, and the US dollar quotation in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone is available [8] - **Basis**: The basis strengthened on November 20th, with the current spot price at 14,850 and a basis of - 400 [4][35] 3.3 Multi - Empty Factors - **Bullish Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Increasing supply, negative domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The lithium carbonate market is in a "strong reality, strong expectation" situation, with demand - driven growth and short - term price fluctuations mainly due to capital. Industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon markets are affected by factors such as commodity price declines and the weakening of previous positive news, with both facing supply - demand imbalances and high inventories [1][8][10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures contract 2601 dropped 0.32% to 98,980 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price, with the total open interest exceeding one million lots [1]. - **Core Logic**: The core driver is demand expectation. The demand for lithium carbonate in power batteries and energy storage is strong. There is a rush to install power cells in the new energy vehicle market due to the phased - out of new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policies, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to reach about 60% from November to December. The energy - storage battery installation is expected to grow by over 40% in 2026. The weekly inventory reduction also confirms strong demand. Recently, capital has become the main driver of price [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall open interest of lithium carbonate futures declined. The 2601 contract was still under bullish control, but there was a large - scale reduction of positions in the afternoon, causing the price to correct. The 5 - minute cycle is expected to fluctuate in the short term, while the 2 - hour cycle remains bullish, with the long - short dividing line at 87,220 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the context of "strong reality, strong expectation", the operation strategy is to go long on dips. Avoid contrarian trading when the futures price corrects [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures contract 2601 dropped 3.35% to 9,075 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price [8]. - **Core Logic**: The impact of the news of silicone joint price - support on industrial silicon futures has gradually faded. The overall commodity decline and the weak fundamental situation of industrial silicon, including weak supply - demand and high inventory, have led to continued pressure on the short - term market [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall open interest of industrial silicon futures decreased. The 2601 contract continued to decline with position reduction, indicating bullish control. There was an entry opportunity using the "Three - Line Resonance Method" at 10:35, with a profit - loss ratio of 1:1 to less than 1:2. The 5 - minute cycle shows a short - term weak trend, while the 2 - hour cycle remains bullish, with the long - short dividing line at 8,945 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Due to the large price fluctuations affected by policies and news, it is recommended to wait and see. Intraday operations can refer to the 8:30 morning live - broadcast and the Band Winner indicator [8]. - **Concerns**: The planned 30% production reduction of silicone starting from December 1st, if implemented successfully, will be a significant negative factor for industrial silicon. There are also more winter - related disturbing factors such as environmental protection production restrictions [8]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Market Trend**: The polycrystalline silicon futures contract 2601 dropped 3.98% to 52,450 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price [10]. - **Core Logic**: The positive impact of industrial silicon on polycrystalline silicon yesterday has faded, and combined with the overall commodity decline, polycrystalline silicon has declined. The supply - demand situation of polycrystalline silicon has not changed much, with weak supply - demand and lack of driving forces. The production in November is expected to be 127,000 tons, and the inventory has slightly increased recently [10][13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall open interest of polycrystalline silicon futures slightly increased. The 2601 contract saw bulls taking profits in the morning, and then it turned to bearish control with a large - scale increase in positions in the afternoon. There was an entry opportunity using the "First K Breakthrough Method" at 13:35, with a profit - loss ratio of 1:2. The 5 - minute cycle shows a weak trend, while the 2 - hour cycle remains bullish, with the long - short dividing line at 52,210 yuan/ton [13]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Due to large price fluctuations affected by policies and news and still being in the oscillation range in the 2 - hour cycle, it is recommended to wait and see. Intraday operations can refer to the 8:30 morning live - broadcast and the Band Winner indicator [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Instead, it offers investment suggestions for various futures contracts in different sectors. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic stock index shows resilience, with overall volatility decreasing and waiting for stabilization. The A - share market is in a repricing adjustment, with short - term fluctuations and limited downside risks. [2] - The bond market may continue to fluctuate narrowly, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield facing resistance around 1.8%. [2] - Precious metals are expected to find support at certain levels, with a suggestion to buy on dips. [2] - Different commodities in the black, non - ferrous, energy - chemical, and agricultural sectors have different price trends and corresponding investment strategies. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Domestic stock index futures are in a state of repricing adjustment. Short - term fluctuations are common, and it is recommended to wait and see. In case of a deep one - day decline, a bull spread of put options can be arranged. [2] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to fluctuate narrowly. For the TL2512 contract, the fluctuation range is expected to be between 115.9 - 116.7, and an interval operation strategy is recommended. [2] Precious Metals - **Gold**: It is expected to find support around $4000 (925 yuan). A strategy of buying on dips is recommended, and selling out - of - the - money put options is suggested. [2] - **Silver**: It follows the trend of gold and is expected to find support around $49 (11,800 yuan). A light - position trial long strategy on dips is recommended. [2] Black Commodities - **Steel**: The volume of rebar and hot - rolled coil is expected to increase, and the spread between them is expected to widen. Rebar and hot - rolled coil should respectively focus on the support levels of 3000 and 3200. [2] - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to fluctuate, with a reference range of 750 - 800, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended. [2] - **Coking Coal**: It is viewed bearishly, with a reference range of 1100 - 1200. [2] - **Coke**: It is also viewed bearishly, with a reference range of 1600 - 1700. [2] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is expected to fluctuate, with a reference range of 85,500 - 87,500. [2] - **Aluminum**: Different aluminum - related contracts have different expected price ranges. Some may have short - term downward space. [2] - **Zinc**: Supported by supply reduction expectations, with a reference range of 22,200 - 22,800, and long positions should be held. [2] - **Tin**: The price is expected to be strong, and long positions should be held. [2] Energy - Chemical Commodities - **PX**: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. [2] - **PTA**: The medium - term supply - demand outlook is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. A rolling reverse spread strategy for TA1 - 5 is recommended. [2] - **Short - fiber**: Similar to PTA, with a focus on reducing processing fees on rallies. [2] - **Bottle - chip**: The supply - demand pattern in November remains loose, and it follows the cost - end trend. [2] - **Ethanol**: There is short - term rigid demand support, but supply is high, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. [2] - **Benzene**: The supply - demand is relatively loose, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended. [2] - **Styrene**: It may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. [2] - **LLDPE**: The price changes little, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended. [2] - **PP**: Due to unexpected maintenance, the downward space is limited, and short - position stop - profit is recommended. [2] - **Methanol**: The port market continues to weaken, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of narrowing MTO in the 05 contract. [2] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to be weak, and a bearish view is recommended. [2] - **PVC**: The supply - demand contradiction remains, and a bearish strategy is recommended. [2] - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern is weakening, and a strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended. [2] - **Glass**: It is expected to be weak, and a bearish view is recommended. [2] - **Natural Rubber**: Supported by overseas raw materials, the price is rising, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended. [2] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to face pressure at the upper level, and a mid - term strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended, with attention to the pressure around 10,800. [2] Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic supply is loose, and attention should be paid to the support around 3000. [2] - **Pig**: There are signs of stabilization in the spot market, and a 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy should be held. [2] - **Corn**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2100 - 2200. [2] - **Edible Oils**: The price is rising, and the P contract may reach 8900 in the short term. [2] - **Sugar**: Under the pressure of production increase, it is expected to be weak. [2] - **Cotton**: With a global bumper harvest and weak domestic downstream trading, it is expected to be weak. [2] - **Egg**: The supply is still loose, and short - position stop - profit should be gradually carried out on dips for the 2512 contract. [2] - **Apple**: It may fluctuate around 9500 in the short term. [2] - **Jujube**: It is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support around 9000. [2]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 巴西未来十五天降雨预计略低于正常水平。目前现货油厂销售压力下降，存在挺价 | | 豆粕 | | 心理。中美会晤结果显示，美豆进口关税问题仍未得到有效解决。贸易成本叠加巴 | | | 短线整理 | 西种植升水可能，市场看多情绪炒作，美农 11 月报告显示美豆期末库存虽然环比 | | ★ | | 回落，但与 8 月期末库存预估一致。本周国内大豆及豆粕库存环比回落，短线关注 | | | | 调整后逢低短多机会，关注巴西大豆种植天气情况。 | | | | 近日加方表示暂无法取消对中国关税，导致市场对于中加贸易关税改善预期降温。 | | 菜粕 | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨。港口库存依然同比偏高叠加豆粕调整，昨日菜粕延 | | ★ | 短线回落整理 | 续回落调整。短线关注调整后看多机会。做空谨慎对待。关注中加贸易后续进展。 | | | | 棕榈油阶段性进入供需转弱状态，11 月马棕榈油前 15 日出口数据环比较弱，累库 | | 棕榈油 | | 预期依然存在，短期阶段性调整行情。近日进口盘面利润快速回升修复，但印度进 | ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 20 日 棉花：期价维持震荡走势 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2601 | 元/吨 | 13,485 | 0.67% | 13500 | 0.11% | | | CY2601 | 元/吨 | 19,795 | 0.58% | 19820 | 0.13% | | | ICE美棉3 | 美分/磅 | 63.94 | -0.78% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2601 | 手 | 300,328 | 65,926 | 932,869 | -8,891 | | | CY2601 | 手 | 15,613 | -1,999 | 20,982 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日变 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures, all of which are "oscillating weakly" with a medium - term "oscillating" view [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [5]. - **Core Logic**: The market has digested the positive news in advance, and the US soybean export data is weak, especially the sales to China far below expectations. The cost support for the domestic soybean meal market exists but lacks continuous driving force. The domestic supply is loose, with high port soybean inventories, increased oil mill operating rates leading to high soybean meal inventories. The arrival of previously purchased Argentine soybean meal has further expanded the supply and increased supply pressure concerns, causing the futures price to weaken [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [7]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term trends depend on external markets like soybean oil and the bio - diesel policy expectations of major producing countries. The current situation of loose supply and weak demand in the palm oil market is the main pressure. The short - term futures price will continue to oscillate, and it is necessary to pay attention to Malaysian production and export data, the final implementation of the US bio - diesel policy, and changes in global vegetable oil trade flows [7]. Other Related Information - **Price Calculation Method**: For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price, and the rise - fall range is calculated accordingly [2]. - **Strength and Weakness Definition**: A decline of more than 1% is considered weak; a decline of 0 - 1% is oscillating weakly; a rise of 0 - 1% is oscillating strongly; a rise of more than 1% is strong. Oscillating strongly/weakly only applies to intraday views [3]. - **Time - Cycle Definition**: Short - term is within one week, and medium - term is from two weeks to one month, with the previous day's night - trading closing price as the benchmark [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly in the short - term and on the day, and show a volatile trend in the medium - term [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Variety Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term view**: Weak [1] - **Medium - term view**: Volatile [1] - **Intraday view**: Weak [1] - **Reference view**: Weakly run [1] - **Core logic**: As domestic natural rubber producing areas in Yunnan and Hainan are approaching the end of the harvest season, the supply of domestic full - latex is expected to decline. Meanwhile, the domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic. After a previous steady rebound, the rubber market has entered a stage of long - short divergence. On Wednesday night, the 2601 contract of Shanghai rubber futures maintained a weakly volatile trend, and the futures price closed slightly lower. It is expected to maintain a weakly volatile trend on Thursday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term view**: Weak [1] - **Medium - term view**: Volatile [1] - **Intraday view**: Weak [1] - **Reference view**: Weakly run [1] - **Core logic**: The recent macro sentiment is okay, but the slight decline of domestic and international crude oil futures on Wednesday night weakened the impetus for the continuous rebound of synthetic rubber futures. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the synthetic rubber market has shifted from "expectation - driven" to "reality - dominated". Under the long - short divergence, the synthetic rubber futures showed a volatile and stable trend on Wednesday night, with the futures price slightly rebounding. It is expected to maintain a weak trend on Thursday [6].

GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 红枣期货：抄底需谨慎，震荡筑底是主基调 金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/11/20 11月19日红枣期货2601合约结算价收于9332元/吨，但当前市场仍不具备明确重仓抄底条件，短多对待。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 从基本面看，旧季库存同比增幅超120%，新枣集中下树进度达6-8成，供需压力尚未缓解；消费端旺季未 启，销区采购谨慎，需求缺乏实质支撑。不过期现价差已收敛，期货对现货呈现贴水状态，且仓单注册量 偏低，旧枣贴水交割规则限制了跌幅，盘面下跌空间收窄。 技术面来看，合约跌破万点后进入震荡区间，趋势的反转不是三五天就能改变的，需要足够的震荡筑底时 间。 虽然有些品种反转快一点例如烧碱、锰硅等；那些持仓量巨大，产业链牵涉广泛的品种例如铜、铝、双焦 等品种往往需要更长的横盘时间。 只有足够的时间才能完成多空力量的转换，也只有足够的时间才能让产业供需发生改变。投 ...