Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strategies previously suggested in the semi - annual report for corn, hog, and egg futures have been verified by the market. Corn futures showed a downward trend, hog futures first rose and then declined, and egg futures also trended downwards [6][9]. - For corn, the short - term price may remain weak due to the approaching peak of new grain supply, while the medium - term presents a wide - range trading opportunity, and the long - term maintains a pricing logic related to import substitution and planting cost [124]. - The hog market is in the bottom - grinding phase. The short - term is affected by strong supply and weak demand, the medium - term has supply increase expectations, and the long - term supply situation depends on factors such as sow inventory and production efficiency [127]. - For eggs, the short - to medium - term prices are under pressure due to the end of the holiday stocking period, and the long - term supply pressure may re - emerge if the chicken culling rate is lower than expected [134]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Corn Macro Logic - Internationally, the macro - driving force is gradually weakening; domestically, it is mainly reflected in industrial policies [124]. Industrial Logic - The industry has entered a passive inventory - building cycle, with attention on policies such as reserve acquisitions, auctions of targeted rice/imported corn, and grain import policies [124]. Supply and Demand Logic - **Supply**: Globally, the corn supply situation is tightening, while in the US, there is significant supply pressure. In China, there is a long - term corn supply - demand gap, and the pricing logic based on substitutes remains. In the medium - term, factors like new - year yield and planting cost are key, and in the short - term, the new grain price started high and then dropped, with the upcoming peak supply in October [124]. - **Demand**: In 2025, the hog production capacity increased, and the存栏 of egg - laying and meat - producing poultry remained high, providing rigid support for corn consumption. Deep - processing consumption is relatively stable [124]. Variety Viewpoint - Short - term: The new grain price may remain weak. The lower support on the futures market is around the planting cost of new - season corn, and the upper pressure is related to the wheat - corn price difference. - Medium - term: Conduct band trading based on new - season corn factors, and focus on band - buying opportunities supported by reserve policies. - Long - term: Maintain the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost, and pay attention to import policies and grain auctions [124]. Trading Strategy - Adopt an interval trading strategy in the medium - to long - term. In the fourth quarter, focus on band - buying opportunities supported by planting cost around 2100 yuan/ton [124]. Hog Macro Logic - Domestically, pay attention to the interaction between CPI and hog prices, and focus on industrial policy directions [125]. Industrial Logic - Under the guidance of capacity - reduction policies, the structure of the hog - breeding market may change. Market share is concentrating on leading enterprises, but the implementation of sow - reduction policies and its impact on supply are still uncertain [125]. Supply and Demand Logic - **Supply**: In the fourth quarter, the supply will continue to increase. The supply pressure in the first half of 2026 remains significant, and it may start to ease in the second half of 2026, depending on factors such as MSY and slaughter weight [126]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand for hogs is relatively stable, showing seasonal patterns. The increase in consumption during the end - of - year season may be limited [126]. Market Viewpoint - The hog price is in the bottom - grinding phase. The short - term is pressured by strong supply and weak demand, the medium - term has supply increase expectations, and the long - term supply situation depends on sow inventory and production efficiency. The possibility and amplitude of a seasonal rebound in the fourth quarter depend on the slaughter weight [127]. Operation Suggestion - The hog market is in the second half of the second half of the small cycle of passive capacity reduction due to diseases. The futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. For contracts before 2605, the supply is mainly determined by supply - demand logic, while for contracts after 2605, it depends on the implementation of capacity - reduction policies [128]. Egg Macro Logic - Domestically, pay attention to raw material prices, CPI changes, and the impact of meat and vegetable prices in the second half of the year [132]. Industrial Logic - The egg - laying chicken breeding industry has been profitable for four years, and the scale - up rate continues to increase, which will change the industry's structure and production efficiency [132]. Supply and Demand Logic - **Supply**: The egg - laying chicken inventory is at a high level, and the supply pressure persists. The current high inventory and the low chicken culling rate may lead to continued supply pressure in the fourth quarter [132]. - **Demand**: After the pre - holiday stocking period, the supply - demand situation is expected to be loose from October to November. The consumption support for egg prices may be weakened due to the extended holiday stocking period [133]. Variety Viewpoint - Short - to medium - term: The end of holiday stocking leads to slower sales and rising inventory, pressuring egg prices. Long - term: Pay attention to the chicken culling rate, as the current low culling rate may cause supply pressure to re - emerge in the fourth quarter [134]. Trading Strategy - The futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Before large - scale chicken culling, adopt a short - selling strategy for near - term contracts. Egg - breeding enterprises can also consider selling - hedging opportunities for contracts 2607 and 2608 [135].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Coke**: As of the week ending September 26, the combined daily coke output of independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1127,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 5900 tons. The profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 34 yuan/ton, with losses widening by 17 yuan/ton, suppressing coking enterprises' production enthusiasm. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2,423,600 tons, a weekly increase of 13,400 tons. This week, coke inventory shifted downstream. The inventory of independent coking plants and ports decreased, while the inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 166,400 tons to 6,613,100 tons, and the total industrial chain coke inventory increased by 52,300 tons to 9,204,100 tons. Overall, the coke fundamentals have limited drivers, policy uncertainty decreases, market waiting - and - seeing sentiment rises, and pre - holiday capital outflows lead to the weak operation of coke futures [5][32]. - **Coking Coal**: Pre - holiday risk - aversion sentiment was released. Since the night session last Friday, JM2601 has continuously reduced positions with a downward - trending price, indicating that the market is mainly characterized by long - position holders taking the initiative to exit. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of coking coal is not obvious, supply is slowly recovering, and demand is stable. The fundamentals lack support, and the recent "anti - involution" policy disturbances have eased, resulting in strong market waiting - and - seeing sentiment. As of the week ending September 26, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 772,000 tons, a weekly increase of 11,000 tons but 25,000 tons lower than the same period last year. At the import end, the number of Mongolian coal trucks passing through the 288 port continued to rise, approaching 8000 trucks per week. The combined daily output of sample coking plants and steel mills was 1127,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 5900 tons. Overall, the impact of previous production capacity verifications was basically realized in September, the positive "anti - involution" expectations slowed down, the actual supply of coking coal recovered marginally, and pre - holiday long - position holders' risk - aversion demand led to the oscillatory correction of the main contract. During the holiday, focus on changes in economic policy expectations and whether an increase in coal mine accidents will lead to stricter safety supervision [6][33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - **Manufacturing PMI**: China's manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 51.0%, up 0.2 percentage points; medium - scale enterprises' PMI was 48.8%, down 0.1 percentage points; small - scale enterprises' PMI was 48.2%, up 1.6 percentage points. Among the five sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI, the production index and the supplier delivery time index were above the critical point, while the new order index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were below the critical point [7]. - **Coking Coal Price in Xingtai**: On September 30, the coking coal prices in the Xingtai market remained stable. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal was 1490 yuan/ton, and the price of 1/3 coking coal was 1170 yuan/ton, both being ex - factory cash - inclusive prices effective from the 1st [9]. Spot Market - **Coke and Coking Coal Prices**: Provided the price quotes and changes of coke and coking coal in different markets such as Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Ganqimao Port, and Jingtang Port, including week - on - week, month - on - month, year - on - year, and compared with the same period changes [11]. Relevant Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Included charts of coke inventory in 230 independent coking plants, port coke inventory, 247 steel - mill coking plant coke inventory, and total coke inventory [14][15][17]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Included charts of coking coal inventory at mine mouths, in ports, in all - sample independent coking plants, and in 247 sample steel mills [19][22][24]. - **Other Charts**: Included charts of domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal wire rod and screw - thread steel procurement, washing - plant production, and coking - plant operation [25][28][30]. Future Outlook - **Coke**: The analysis of coke's supply, demand, and inventory was the same as the core view, concluding that the weak operation of coke futures was due to limited fundamentals, decreased policy uncertainty, increased market waiting - and - seeing sentiment, and pre - holiday capital outflows [32]. - **Coking Coal**: The analysis of coking coal's supply, demand, and market sentiment was the same as the core view, suggesting that the oscillatory correction of the main contract was due to pre - holiday risk - aversion, limited fundamentals, and marginal supply recovery. Attention should be paid to economic policy expectations and safety supervision during the holiday [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for L and PP, the unilateral strategy is neutral [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints - **PE**: The cost - side support weakens due to falling oil prices. The supply is increasing as more maintenance devices are restarting. Although the downstream demand has a slight improvement before the double - festivals, the follow - up is insufficient, and the demand is still weak, which restricts the upward space of PE. After the festivals, social inventory may accumulate [2]. - **PP**: The cost support is weak. The supply is expected to increase as the number of maintenance devices decreases. The demand is marginally improving but still recovering slowly, and the demand support is limited. The weak demand restricts the upward space of PP, and the low profit also limits its downward space [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Key Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 7181 yuan/ton (+22), and that of the PP main contract is 6903 yuan/ton (+10). The LL North China spot price is 7120 yuan/ton (-20), and the LL East China spot price is 7140 yuan/ton (+0). The PP East China spot price is 6750 yuan/ton (+0). The LL North China basis is -61 yuan/ton (-32), the LL East China basis is -41 yuan/ton (-22), and the PP East China basis is -153 yuan/ton (-10) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 81.8% (+1.5%), and the PP operating rate is 75.5% (+0.6%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is -1.8 yuan/ton (-55.8), the PP oil - based production profit is -631.8 yuan/ton (-55.8), and the PDH - based PP production profit is -264.0 yuan/ton (-39.2) [1]. - **Import and Export**: The LL import profit is -56.7 yuan/ton (-1.9), the PP import profit is -532.6 yuan/ton (-1.9), and the PP export profit is 15.3 US dollars/ton (+0.2) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 32.9% (+6.1%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 52.4% (+0.6%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 43.9% (+0.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 61.4% (+0.0%) [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The cost - side support weakens as OPEC+ increases oil production in November, driving the oil price down. The supply is increasing as more maintenance devices restart. The demand has a slight improvement before the double - festivals, but the follow - up is insufficient, and the demand is still weak, which restricts the upward space of PE [2]. - **PP**: The cost support is weak due to the falling international oil price. The supply is expected to increase as the number of maintenance devices decreases. The demand is marginally improving but still recovering slowly, and the demand support is limited [3]. 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: L and PP are neutral [4]. - **Inter - period**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [4]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★ (Long - term holding) [1] - Silver: ★★ (Holding positions over the holiday) [1] - Copper: ★★ (Long - term holding) [1] - Zinc: ★ (Rebound) [1] - Lead: ★ (Weak) [1] - Tin: ★★ (Strong) [1] - Aluminum: ★ (Rebound under pressure) [1] - Nickel: ★ (Rebound under pressure) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★ (Rebound) [1] - Polysilicon: ★ (Cautiously bullish) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★ (Wide - range oscillation) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The risks such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the US government shutdown, along with the dovish statements of Fed officials, support the long - term investment value of gold and silver. The long - term bullish logic for gold and silver remains unchanged, but short - term risks need to be noted [1][3][4]. - The copper market is affected by factors such as supply contraction expectations and strategic resource attributes. It is recommended to take different strategies for short - term and long - term investments [1][6][7]. - The zinc market shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the long - term. It is advisable to be cautious during the holiday and maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [1][10][11]. - The lead market is currently in a short - term weak trend due to factors such as the resumption of production of lead enterprises and weak downstream demand [1]. - The tin market has a strong upward trend due to supply disruptions and supported terminal consumption [1]. - The aluminum market faces challenges such as reduced overseas bauxite arrivals and unsmooth destocking, resulting in a rebound under pressure [1][14]. - The nickel market has a situation of over - supply in refined nickel and uncertain downstream consumption of stainless steel, so it is recommended to wait and see [1][18][19]. - The industrial silicon market has a situation of reduced supply and increased downstream stocking, with short - term cost support and high inventory coexisting [1]. - The polysilicon market has production uncertainties in October, but strong policy expectations support the price [1]. - The lithium carbonate market has increasing production and continuous destocking. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average [1][22][23]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Conditions**: Gold and silver have reached new highs, supported by risk events such as the US government shutdown and the Russia - Ukraine conflict [2][3]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern. Silver follows the trend of gold and is also supported by other metal sentiments and strong demand [3][1]. - **Strategy**: Long - term multi - orders can be held over the holiday, and short - term multi - orders should be held lightly. Pay attention to short - term sentiment fluctuations if the US fiscal bill is resolved [4]. Copper - **Market Conditions**: Shanghai copper has reached a new high this year, with an increase in the closing price of the main contract and changes in various indicators such as inventory and price differentials [5][6]. - **Logic**: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the supply contraction expectation of the copper smelting industry is increasing. High copper prices suppress demand, and the domestic social inventory has increased [6][7]. - **Strategy**: Short - term speculative multi - orders are recommended to take profit and prepare for empty or light positions during the holiday. Long - term strategic multi - orders can be held, and industrial selling hedging should be actively arranged [7]. Zinc - **Market Conditions**: Shanghai zinc has stopped falling and rebounded, with changes in price, trading volume, inventory, and other indicators [9][10]. - **Logic**: The supply of zinc concentrates is relatively loose in 2025. Domestic zinc ingot social inventory has decreased, and the risk of soft squeezing in LME zinc continues. However, in the long - term, supply will increase and demand will decrease [10][11]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to be empty or hold light positions during the holiday. In the long - term, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [11]. Aluminum - **Market Conditions**: Aluminum prices have rebounded under pressure, and alumina has shown a relatively weak trend [13]. - **Logic**: Overseas bauxite arrivals are expected to decrease, domestic aluminum ingot destocking is not smooth, and downstream processing industry start - up rates have slightly increased [14]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term, paying attention to the changes in the start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises [15]. Nickel - **Market Conditions**: Nickel prices have rebounded, and stainless steel has slightly recovered [17]. - **Logic**: The impact of the political situation in Indonesia on nickel ore supply is limited. The supply of refined nickel is in excess, and the downstream consumption of stainless steel is uncertain [18]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Conditions**: The main contract LC2511 opened low and went high, with the late - session gains narrowing [21]. - **Logic**: Supply has not significantly contracted, demand has released positive signals, and the total inventory has been decreasing for 7 consecutive weeks [22]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average in the range of [73500 - 75000] [23].

Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil: Short - term rebound height is limited, recommend light - position trading during the holiday [2][4]. - Soybean oil: US soybeans are in a weak oscillation, and the upside space for soybean oil is difficult to open [2][4]. - Soybean meal: Oscillating, recommend avoiding risks during the long holiday [2][13]. - Soybean: Oscillating [2][12]. - Corn: Pay attention to the listing of new grain [2][15]. - Sugar: Narrow - range consolidation [2][20]. - Cotton: Both domestic and international cotton futures are weak [2][25]. - Eggs: Light - position trading during the holiday [2][29]. - Pigs: The bottom of the spot market has not appeared [2][31]. - Peanuts: Pay attention to the weather in the producing areas [2][36]. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,234 yuan/ton (-0.02%), and night - session was 9,214 yuan/ton (-0.22%); soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,150 yuan/ton (-0.15%), and night - session was 8,120 yuan/ton (-0.37%) [5]. - **News**: Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to decline to about 1.7 million tons by the end of the year due to seasonal production slowdown and increased exports. MPOB urges the government to increase the 2026 appropriation for oil palm replanting to 280 million ringgit [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both - 1 [10]. Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Fundamental Data**: DCE Soybean 2511's daily - session closing price was 3938 yuan/ton (-0.05%), and night - session was 3926 yuan/ton (-0.13%); DCE Soybean Meal 2601's daily - session closing price was 2933 yuan/ton (-0.54%), and night - session was 2931 yuan/ton (-0.20%) [12]. - **News**: On September 29, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly lower due to expected high yields in the US and insufficient Chinese demand [12][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean and soybean meal trend intensities are both 0 [14]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: C2511's daily - session closing price was 2,159 yuan/ton (-0.78%), and night - session was 2,151 yuan/ton (-0.37%); C2601's daily - session closing price was 2,135 yuan/ton (-0.09%), and night - session was 2,128 yuan/ton (-0.33%) [15]. - **News**: Northern corn port - collection prices are 2220 - 2240 yuan/ton, and container port - collection prices for new grain are 2240 - 2260 yuan/ton [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [19]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: Raw sugar price is 15.92 cents/pound (0.09), mainstream spot price is 5830 yuan/ton (-10), and futures main - contract price is 5479 yuan/ton (1) [20]. - **News**: Brazilian sugar production in the second half of August increased by 18% year - on - year. Conab lowered the 25/26 Brazilian sugar production forecast to 44.5 million tons [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is 0 [23]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2601's daily - session closing price was 13,350 yuan/ton (-0.41%), and night - session was 13245 yuan/ton (-0.79%); ICE US cotton 12 was 65.4 cents/pound (-1.40%) [25]. - **News**: The new - cotton pre - sale quotes in the domestic cotton spot market continue to increase, and the cotton yarn market's trading atmosphere is average [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [28]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2510's closing price was 2,918 yuan/500 kg (-1.15%), and Egg 2601's closing price was 3,352 yuan/500 kg (-0.24%) [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [29]. Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: Henan's spot price is 12430 yuan/ton (-150), Sichuan's is 11900 yuan/ton (-200), and Guangdong's is 12710 yuan/ton (-200) [33]. - **Trend Intensity**: Pig trend intensity is - 1 [34]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts is 8,600 yuan/ton (+100), PK510's closing price is 7,800 yuan/ton (0.21%), and PK511's is 7,822 yuan/ton (0.49%) [36]. - **News**: In the spot market, peanut prices in different regions are generally stable, affected by weather and supply [37]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [40].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term and intraday views of soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil are all "oscillating weakly", and the medium - term views are all "oscillating". The overall market sentiment is weak as the National Day holiday approaches, with market volatility decreasing and funds showing risk - aversion [5][7][8] Group 3: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Intraday view: Oscillating weakly; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Reference view: Oscillating weakly. With the approaching of the National Day holiday, the market sentiment has weakened, the price fluctuation of soybean products has narrowed, the domestic supply pressure remains unresolved, the downstream pre - holiday stocking is basically over, the inventory pressure of oil mills' soybean meal still exists, and the negative basis has not been repaired [5] Palm Oil (P) - Intraday view: Oscillating weakly; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Reference view: Oscillating weakly. The sharp decline in international oil prices has dragged down the oil market. Although the palm oil industry chain still has support, as the holiday approaches, market funds are risk - averse, resulting in the short - term palm oil futures price oscillating weakly [8] Others - For soybean meal 2601, factors affecting the market include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operation rhythm, and stocking demand. For soybean oil 2601, factors include US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory. For palm 2601, factors include biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see) [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see) [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Timber: ★☆★ (The meaning is not clearly defined in the given content) [1] - 20 - rubber: Not clearly interpretable from the symbol "ななな" [1] - Natural rubber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see) [1] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and analyses for various soft commodities including cotton, pulp, sugar, apple, timber, 20 - rubber, natural rubber, and butadiene rubber. It assesses the supply, demand, and inventory situations of each commodity and gives corresponding investment strategies such as waiting and seeing, maintaining a bullish or bearish stance [1][2][3][4][6][7][8] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline, with weak spot trading and strong pre - sales of new cotton. Due to low old - crop inventory, new cotton sales may be good at the beginning of the new harvest. The purchase price of seed cotton followed the futures price down. Xinjiang cotton is likely to have a bumper harvest, but the specific output estimate ranges from 720 to 770 million tons. Ginners are cautious about new cotton purchase, and there is unlikely to be a scramble for purchase. The domestic production - demand gap may narrow significantly due to the bumper harvest. Weak peak - season demand and poor spinning profits drag down cotton prices. Although Sino - US trade negotiations sent positive signals, details need further tracking. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton is weak, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the production progress in the central - southern region accelerated in the second half of August, with increased cane crushing and high sugar - making ratio, leading to a significant year - on - year increase in sugar production. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated weakly. The sales rhythm this year is fast, and the spot pressure is relatively light. The market's focus has shifted to the next season's output estimate. After July, rainfall in Guangxi was good, and the vegetation index of sugarcane increased year - on - year, indicating a relatively good output expectation for the 25/26 season. Attention should be paid to subsequent weather and sugarcane growth [3] Apple - The futures price was strong. For the new - season apples, the coloring of early - picked Fuji was slow, and the quality of ordered goods was average. Late - maturing Fuji began to remove bags, and the fruit size was smaller this year. Due to the good price of early - maturing apples, farmers are bullish, and the opening price of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be high. However, the output in the 25/26 quarter is expected to change little year - on - year, and there is no bullish driver on the supply side. In Shaanxi, farmers' bullish sentiment led to an increase in fruit retention, and the cold - storage inventory after the late - maturing apples are harvested in October may be higher than expected, so a bearish strategy is maintained [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU (natural rubber futures) continued to decline slightly, NR (20 - rubber futures) first declined and then rose, and BR (butadiene rubber futures) continued to fall. The domestic prices of natural and synthetic rubber were stable with a downward trend, the port price of butadiene in the overseas market was stable, and the raw material prices in Thailand generally declined. The global natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period, and there is more rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas. The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants dropped significantly last week, with some plants under maintenance and some restarting. The operating rate of upstream butadiene plants increased. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires increased slightly, and that of semi - steel tires decreased slightly. Tire enterprises maintained normal production, and the inventory of finished tires continued to increase. They will arrange holidays during the National Day. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 461,200 tons last week, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber decreased to 12,200 tons, and the port inventory of Chinese butadiene increased to 27,800 tons. With the approaching National Day holiday, demand is expected to decline, supply pressure is high, inventory reduction is difficult, and the external environment is poor. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [6] Pulp - Zhengzhou pulp futures dropped significantly, reaching a new low. The spot price of coniferous pulp was 5,300 yuan/ton for Moon brand and 5,250 yuan/ton for Russian coniferous pulp in the Yangtze River Delta region, and the price of broad - leaf pulp was 4,250 yuan/ton for Goldfish brand and remained stable. As of September 25, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.033 million tons, a decrease of 79,000 tons from the previous period, a 3.7% month - on - month decline. The digestion of warehouse receipts was slow, and the warehouse receipts of broad - leaf pulp still suppressed the near - month contracts. China's pulp imports in August 2025 were 2.653 million tons, a decrease of 227,000 tons from the previous month. The current port inventory is high year - on - year, pulp supply is relatively abundant, demand is average, and downstream paper mills continue to implement cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement strategies. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The port spot price increased by 10 yuan. The arrival volume increased last week. The quotation of New Zealand radiata pine in October increased, but the domestic spot price remained weak, reducing traders' import willingness. The overseas quotation is still high, and the domestic spot price is difficult to improve, increasing traders' pressure. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and the domestic supply may remain low. The port inventory decreased significantly last week, indicating strong peak - season demand and smooth inventory reduction. The total log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Considering the improved supply - demand situation and relatively low spot price, a bullish strategy is maintained [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Alumina: No clear indication from the symbol, but it's in a weak - running state [1][3] - Casting Aluminum Alloy: No clear indication from the symbol [1] - Zinc: ☆☆, indicating a long/short bias with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the market [1] - Lead: ☆☆, same as above [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Tin: No clear indication from the symbol [1] - Lithium Carbonate: No clear indication from the symbol [1] - Industrial Silicon: No clear indication from the symbol [1] - Polysilicon: No clear indication from the symbol [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, mine production, inventory changes, and market sentiment. Different metals are in different market states, with some showing upward or downward trends, while others are in a state of shock [2][3][4] Summary by Metals Copper - On Monday, Shanghai copper closed up in shock. The spot copper was reported at 82,210 yuan, and the Shanghai copper discount was 5 yuan. The supply absence of Grasberg for two quarters affected the balance sheet and the price shock center. Technically, LME copper showed potential for a trend breakthrough, and the MA20 moving average provided strong support. After the long - term damage to the supply of major copper mines, funds poured in and increased positions, driving up the price. The support level of LME copper rose to $10,000, and the Shanghai copper index was around 79,700 - 80,300 yuan, with 83,000 - 85,000 yuan being the high - level area [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly today, with a spot discount of 10 yuan in East China. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 25,000 tons compared to last Thursday. The destocking before the National Day was neutral, and the apparent consumption in September was basically flat year - on - year. The demand was resilient but lacked highlights. Shanghai aluminum was expected to oscillate between 20,500 - 21,000 yuan. Casting aluminum alloy followed the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, and the Baotai spot quotation remained at 20,400 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the expected adjustment of the tax rate policy increased enterprise costs, making it more resilient than Shanghai aluminum. However, the industry inventory was at a high level, and the peak - season demand remained to be seen. The operating capacity of alumina exceeded 98 million tons, and the industry inventory continued to rise. The supply surplus was obvious, and the domestic and foreign spot prices continued to decline. The current price still had a profit for the production capacity in Shanxi and Henan, so it was not enough to trigger production cuts. The weak - running support of alumina was around the June low of 2,800 yuan [3] Zinc - As the National Day holiday approached, the downstream restocking was coming to an end. The production expectation of Huoshaoyun zinc smelter was strengthening, and the zinc fundamentals were weakening. Short - sellers increased their positions significantly. The weighted position of Shanghai zinc increased by 20,700 lots to 251,000 lots, and the main contract touched a minimum of 21,665 yuan/ton. The average price of domestic concentrate TC in October was significantly reduced by 300 yuan/metal ton. With the poor smelting profit of imported ore, the domestic mines were less willing to offer concessions. The support level of Shanghai zinc was still to be concerned at 21,500 yuan/ton. The LME zinc inventory was low, so beware of the possible sudden soft squeeze on the overseas market during the holiday. It was recommended that short - sellers close their positions before the holiday to avoid uncertainties during the National Day holiday [4] Lead - The previously overhauled primary lead smelters resumed production one after another. After the profit of secondary lead smelters was repaired, the resumption of production also increased. The downstream restocking before the holiday was basically over, and the long holiday brought short - term oversupply. The lead fundamentals were weakening, and the long - positions of Shanghai lead accelerated to leave the market. The market dropped significantly, erasing the monthly increase in a single day. The supply of lead concentrates was still tight, and the cost support around 16,500 yuan/ton was still to be concerned [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel was running weakly, and the market trading was dull. The premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,300 yuan, the premium of imported nickel was 325 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel was 25 yuan. The price of high - nickel ferrochrome was quoted at 956 yuan per nickel point. Recently, the upstream price support rebounded slightly and was further hyped up due to the political situation turmoil, pushing up the price level of the nickel industry chain. The pure nickel inventory decreased by 600 tons to 40,900 tons, the nickel ferrochrome inventory decreased by 600 tons to 28,700 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory increased by 12,000 tons to 909,000 tons. The long - position themes of Shanghai nickel were exhausted, and the nickel price was running weakly, about to start a downward trend [7] Tin - Shanghai tin closed down in shock, and the MA40 moving average provided support. Pay attention to the performance of LME tin at $34,500 in the evening. On the supply side, pay attention to the change in the refined tin operating rate after the major factories resume production after the holiday. On the demand side, the domestic tin upstream and downstream continued the destocking rhythm and actively restocked before the holiday. Pay attention to the inventory change after the holiday, and the actual demand still lacked highlights. The tin price was difficult to break out of a trend market for the time being. After the restocking was over, it was recommended to hold a light position and wait and see during the holiday [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate oscillated, and the market trading was dull. The total market inventory decreased by 700 tons to 136,800 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 33,000 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 1,400 tons to 61,000 tons. After the price dropped rapidly, the downstream took the opportunity to take delivery, and the trader inventory decreased by 1,140 tons to 42,000 tons. The middle - stream began to be cautious. The transfer of cargo rights was mainly from the upstream to the downstream. The low - level support of the lithium carbonate futures price emerged, but the selling actions in the industry chain were basically completed. After the interest rate cut was implemented and the anti - involution tide ebbed, the price was under pressure from the expected end. Still pay attention to the news on September 30th [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures decreased in position and fell back to 8,600 yuan/ton, partly affected by the weakening sentiment of the coking coal market. The spot price of Xinjiang 421 silicon was reduced by 50 yuan/ton to 9,200 yuan/ton. Although the expected reduction in the polysilicon production schedule in October was limited, the drag on the demand for industrial silicon was relatively controllable. However, the time node of production cuts in the Sichuan and Yunnan production areas of industrial silicon was still uncertain, and the supply - side contraction rhythm was not clear. From the current supply - demand pattern, it was difficult to form an effective driving force to support the continuous upward movement of the price, and the upward space was still restricted. As the National Day holiday approached, it was recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures market oscillation narrowed. With the gradual advancement of policies, the sentiment gradually returned to rationality. The production reduction intensity of polysilicon in October might be less than the previous market expectation, and the overall output contraction of the industry was limited. The industry was still in the period of high - level inventory accumulation, and the rise of the spot price slowed down. The short - term market was expected to maintain an oscillating operation. As the National Day holiday approached, it was recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings but provides trend intensities for each commodity, which can be used as a reference for investment ratings: - **Weak or Bearish**: Synthetic rubber, rubber,纯碱, with trend intensities of -1 [17][11][64] - **Neutral**: PX, PTA, MEG, LLDPE, PP,烧碱,甲醇,尿素,苯乙烯, LPG,丙烯, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil,集运指数（欧线）, with trend intensities of 0 [7][8][9][33][37][43][56][59][60][71][75][77][79] - **Bullish**: Glass, with a trend intensity of 1 [51] Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various energy - chemical commodities, including their current market conditions, supply - demand situations, and future trends. Most commodities are expected to show different degrees of price fluctuations in the short - to - medium term, affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, cost support, and policy changes. Traders are advised to pay attention to position management before the National Day holiday [2]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Unilateral trend may remain weak, with 1 - 5 reverse spread. PXN should take profit. Weak demand and high inventory pressure during the National Day holiday limit upward drive. Domestic PX开工率 is 86.7% (+0.4%), and Asian PX开工率 is 78% (-0.2%) [7]. - **PTA**: Unilateral trend may remain weak, with 1 - 5 reverse spread. Rebound in PTA processing fees on 01/05 contracts should be shorted. Demand pressure is high, and supply - demand imbalance persists. PTA负荷 is 76.8% (-) [8]. - **MEG**: Unilateral trend may remain weak, with 1 - 5 reverse spread. Supply pressure eases marginally with upcoming maintenance plans. Polyester开工率 is 90.3% (-1.3%), and post - holiday inventory pressure may increase [9]. Rubber - **Market Situation**: The market is in a weak - oscillating state. Futures prices have declined, and trading volume has increased. Multiple tire raw material prices have dropped, reducing tire production costs [10][11][13]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Situation**: It is in a weak operation. High supply pressure and inventory accumulation lead to downward pressure on prices. However, the decline rate may slow down due to valuation factors [17]. Asphalt - **Market Situation**: Cost support exists, but factory inventories continue to accumulate. Production has increased, and different regions show different inventory trends. The market may follow the oil price in a range - bound oscillation [18][30]. LLDPE - **Market Situation**: In the short term, it is relatively strong, and in the medium term, it may oscillate. Cost support is strong, demand from the agricultural film industry is improving, and inventory pressure is low [32]. PP - **Market Situation**: It is expected to be in an oscillating market. Short - term demand has improved, cost support is strong, and supply - side low - profit factors limit price fluctuations [36]. Caustic Soda - **Market Situation**: It is suppressed by weak reality but strongly supported by cost. The market is in a wide - range oscillation, with multiple factors such as supply - demand, export, and cost in play [41]. Pulp - **Market Situation**: It is in a weak - oscillating state. The import market shows a differentiation pattern of weak coniferous pulp and strong broad - leaf pulp, affected by supply - demand and cost factors [44][48]. Glass - **Market Situation**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The market price fluctuates, and the trading atmosphere varies by region. Some downstream factories have orders before the holiday, but overall, the market is affected by factors such as price and demand [51]. Methanol - **Market Situation**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term. High inventory pressure restricts the upward space, while policy expectations provide support [55]. Urea - **Market Situation**: It will oscillate before the National Day and trend weakly in the medium term. Short - term price stability is due to pre - holiday order collection, while long - term pressure comes from weak domestic demand [58][59]. Styrene - **Market Situation**: Short - term empty orders should be closed before the National Day. High inventory problems persist, but low - valuation speculation may occur [61]. Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The spot market changes little. Supply remains high, and downstream demand is weak. The market is expected to adjust weakly and stably [64]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: It has strong short - term support, and attention should be paid to cost changes [67]. - **Propylene**: It runs weakly in the short term, affected by factors such as supply - demand and price differentials [68]. PVC - **Market Situation**: It oscillates at a low level. Although there is support from anti - deflation and anti - involution factors, high - inventory and weak - demand fundamentals persist [74]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: Its strong trend continues, and it is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [77]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It oscillates strongly, and the price differential between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market narrows slightly [77]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Market Situation**: It is in an oscillating market, and attention should be paid to the emotional impact of price increase announcements. Freight rates have declined, and the market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and exchange rates [79].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to low - buying opportunities for methanol. Although the short - term upward drive is limited due to high port inventory and low downstream profit, considering the low price of East China spot, traditional downstream peak season, and potential gas restriction in Iran, the port inventory pressure may decrease, and it is advisable to wait for long - buying opportunities [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Information - **Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased by 1 yuan/ton (-0.04%) to 2355 yuan/ton, MA05 dropped 4 yuan/ton (-0.17%) to 2384 yuan/ton, and MA09 fell 6 yuan/ton (-0.26%) to 2343 yuan/ton [1] - **Spot Prices**: Increases were seen in some regions like Taicang (up 10 yuan/ton, 0.44% to 2257.50 yuan/ton) and Guangdong (up 15 yuan/ton, 0.67% to 2265 yuan/ton), while prices in some areas remained unchanged, and Inner Mongolia rose 5 yuan/ton (0.24%) to 2090 yuan/ton [1] - **Cost Prices**: Coal prices decreased, with Bohai Rim Q5500 down 10 yuan/ton (-1.87%) to 525 yuan/ton, Datong Q5500 down 15 yuan/ton (-2.49%) to 587.50 yuan/ton, and Yulin Q6000 down 7.5 yuan/ton (-1.22%) to 605 yuan/ton. Industrial natural gas prices in some areas remained stable [1] 2. Profit Information - **Methanol Production Profit**: Coal - based methanol profit remained at 328.50 yuan/ton, and natural - gas - based methanol profit stayed at - 422 yuan/ton [1] - **Downstream Profit**: Northwest MTO profit decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-32.89%) to - 40.40 yuan/ton, and East China MTO profit dropped 21 yuan/ton (-3.49%) to - 623.07 yuan/ton. Acetic acid profit increased 1.08 yuan/ton (0.20%) to 548.11 yuan/ton, while other downstream products' profits remained stable [1] 3. Important Information - Domestic methanol futures: The main contract MA2601 first rose then fell, opening and closing at 2355 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 556,255 lots and open interest of 885,132 lots, showing increased volume and decreased open interest [1] - Foreign information: A 1.75 - million - ton methanol plant in Southeast Asia is restarting after a short - term shutdown for maintenance [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Pay attention to opportunities for buying on dips [1]