Group 1 - The report highlights that the financing demand in the real economy remains to be boosted, particularly in traditional industries, which require further monetary policy support. The current cautious stance of the central bank may lead to continued pressure on the bond market in March, but a potential "targeted reserve requirement and interest rate cut" is expected to materialize in the second quarter, guiding a new downward trend in the bond market [6][14][19] - In February 2025, the total social financing (TSF) increased by 22,333 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7,374 billion yuan. The government bonds contributed significantly to this increase, with a year-on-year rise of 10,956 billion yuan, marking the highest level in recent years. However, the growth of special bonds was limited, with only an additional 1,000 billion yuan in the first two months [8][11][14] - The report indicates that the short-term outlook for the bond market is less favorable, with interest rates likely to rise above 1.90% by the end of March due to banks' needs to realize OCI floating profits. However, in the long term, interest rates are expected to decline again as monetary policy loosening takes effect [6][14][19] Group 2 - The report notes that the central bank believes the current monetary policy is sufficiently utilized, and there may not be a strong necessity for further easing in the short term. The central bank's cautious approach, combined with obstacles in credit issuance, may lead to different market reactions in the short and long term [11][13][14] - The financing willingness of enterprises and residents remains low, particularly in traditional sectors, which still require monetary policy support. The report suggests that the second quarter may see the implementation of monetary policy measures to stimulate financing demand in the real economy and alleviate banking operational pressures [14][19][27] - The report recommends gradually positioning investments around the end of March to capitalize on the anticipated easing of monetary policy in the second quarter, which could drive a new round of strength in the bond market [14][19][27]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The inflation rate in February showed a year-on-year decrease of 0.7%, which is lower than the market expectation of -0.4% and the previous value of 0.5% [3][9] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) also decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, which is below the market expectation of -2.1% but higher than the previous value of -2.3% [5][20] - The report indicates that the CPI and PPI are expected to remain low, with CPI fluctuating between 0-1% in the near term, while PPI is anticipated to show slight recovery [7][27] Data Summary - February CPI year-on-year growth was -0.7%, with a month-on-month decrease of -0.2% [3][9] - February PPI year-on-year growth was -2.2%, with a month-on-month decrease of -0.1% [5][20] - The core CPI for February showed a year-on-year decrease of -0.1%, marking the first negative growth in nearly four years [4][10] Specific Analysis - The report highlights that the CPI's decline is primarily due to the significant drop in food prices, which fell by 3.3% year-on-year, contributing to over 80% of the total CPI decline [4][10] - The PPI's decline is attributed to seasonal factors related to the Spring Festival, slow post-holiday resumption of production, and falling prices of some international commodities [5][20] - The report notes that the core CPI's negative growth reflects weak demand and a need for improved supply-demand relationships to stabilize prices [7][30] Outlook - The report anticipates that the CPI will experience low fluctuations in the near term, while the PPI is expected to gradually recover as the impact of seasonal factors diminishes [7][27] - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining a loose monetary policy to support economic recovery and stabilize prices [7][30] - The bond market is expected to face short-term adjustments, but the long-term trend remains unchanged, with a forecast for the 10-year government bond yield to stabilize between 1.8% and 2.0% [7][30]

在到达止损位时，必须坚定止损，绝对不能拖延，心存侥幸地做希望交易，让"跌了 - 有希望"的人性弱点在脑子里发酵和强化。越拖延越下不了手，直到 情绪奔溃，越怕止损在最高点，越有可能止损在（收益率的）最高点。 ——笔记哥《应对》 犹记得，去年4月以来，央妈每次苦口婆心、提示风险，债农总是不屑一顾、名曰"倒车接人"。而近期债市"倒车撞人"，终于让债农认清谁才是市场的 Queen。 不打你，不是打不过你，而是舍不得打疼你。娃儿们可长点心吧！ 【笔记20250310— 30年国债升破2.0%（-午后股市回升+2月通胀数据低于预期+资金面平衡宽松=中上)】 资金面均衡宽松，长债收益率明显上行。 央行公开市场开展965亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有970亿元逆回购到期。此外，今日国库现金定存中标总量1500亿元。合计净投放1495亿元。 资金面均衡宽松，资金价格较为平稳，DR001与DR007均在1.8%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.03.10) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 ...

Core Viewpoint - Since the beginning of the year, the funding environment has remained tight, particularly with a noticeable increase in short-term interest rates. The article explores the remaining government debt supply for the first quarter, the liquidity gap in March, and whether the funding situation will improve [1][4]. Group 1: Funding Tightness - The funding environment has been tight since the start of 2025, with the central bank increasing the scale of reverse repos. Despite this, the pressure on liquidity has slightly eased from January to February, with a reduction in liquidity stratification [1][4]. - The central bank's operations included a resumption of 14-day reverse repos before the Spring Festival, while the scale of medium-term lending facility (MLF) continued to decrease. The buyout reverse repo operations have provided significant support for medium to long-term liquidity [5][6]. Group 2: Government Debt Supply - In March, it is estimated that the issuance of government bonds will reach approximately 1.4 trillion yuan, with a net financing scale of nearly 650 billion yuan after accounting for 712.2 billion yuan in maturing bonds. Local government bonds are expected to total around 1.3 trillion yuan, resulting in a combined net financing scale of over 1.8 trillion yuan for government debt [2][14]. Group 3: Liquidity Outlook - The liquidity gap in March is projected to be around 260 billion yuan, indicating some pressure on the funding environment. However, after the "Two Sessions," funding rates are expected to trend towards easing, with the central bank's net injection likely to increase marginally [3][19]. - The article suggests that the central bank may primarily use buyout reverse repos to supplement medium to long-term liquidity during the phase of increased government debt supply, which could lead to a decrease in funding rates, especially for short-term bonds [19].

看法说多了，自己都信了，以至于错了还在坚持，甚至自己都知道错了，也为了面子而坚守，找各种理由说服自己继续坚持。这是在潜移默化中自己迷失 自己。 1月LPR按兵不动、符合预期，资金面有所缓和、资金价格仍不便宜，债市利率小幅上行。 周末主席同特朗普通电话，市场对中美关系的悲观预期有所缓和。早盘债市情绪偏弱，10Y国债利率小幅高开在1.65%。1月LPR报价保持不变，符合预 期。股市冲高回落，10Y国债利率小幅下行至1.64%。午后存单表现持续偏弱，利率小幅上行至1.647%。 今日全球市场的焦点无疑是"懂王登基"，从发行虚拟币"夫妻双双把韭割"，到计划上任后立即签署100项行政命令，只有你想不到，没有懂王做不到。不 过影响今日债市的核心变量并非中美关系改善的叙事，而依旧是资金面，虽较上周有所改善，但也谈不上宽松，资金价格仍然偏贵。本周三有9595亿元逆 回购到期，"救我救我"，希望央妈能包个春节红包给大家开心过年。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250120— 懂王登基，流量变现（-周末中美元首通电话-资金面偏紧=小上)】 资金面先紧后松，长债收益率小幅上行。 央行公开市场开展1230亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有 ...

3、十年国债期货主力合约刷新史高，已经把周三周四挖的坑都填回去了。注意这个是期货合约，一些现货的etf可能离史高还差几分钱。就像前面说的， 明年预期下调40-50bp，这样的背景下债市的价格很难靠人为打压。说实话债市目前最大的风险来自股市，一旦股市突然暴起狂牛，会有大量抛售债券转 投股市，9月底那一波已经证明了这个逻辑，a股不雄起的话，债牛无人能挡。 我来叻～帮大家把周末的事情捋一下。 1、首先是回溯一下周五，20日，12月份的LPR一如预期，没有任何变化。5年期的维持3.6%，1年期的3.1%。最近甚至有部分地方（比如广州）的银行上 调了房贷利率，从2.x%涨回到了3%，但这并非因为当地房市回暖反弹，而是因为银行的息差太小造成经营压力，被迫又往回调。在这种背景下LPR短期 很难继续下跌，需要一点时间来消化存贷的息差压力。 整个2024年LPR一共下调过3次，分别是2月份下调0.25%，7月份下调0.1%，10月份下调0.25%，另外银行还把前几年上浮比例的部分也取消了，这些在客 观上很大幅度降低了月供的压力。缓解了楼市的压力。 至于明年，我已经讲过好几遍了，大概是下调40-50bp的预期，诸位到时候就喜迎2 ...

【笔记20241119— （+供给担忧有所缓解-股市小幅上涨+资金面均衡偏松=中下)】 2400006 2.3125/2.3180/2.2850/2.2850 -2.50 昨晚北京跟进取消普宅标准，早盘债市情绪平稳，10Y国债利率在2.11%附近震荡。 上午小作文传"年内发行2万亿的60%、降低长期和超长期比例"，带动债市情绪修复。发改委发布会无增量信息，股市小幅下 跌，10Y国债利率小幅下行至2.10%附近。 下午股市转为上涨，但地方债一级发行利差较低，叠加"核武器法令"相关消息，债市利率下行至2.093%。 今日债市表现较强，除小作文的神助攻外，或有部分资金博弈明日LPR报价（虽然概率低）。小作文难以证实/证伪，但本周后 半周新增供给规模较高，届时或将迎接真金白银的考验。 【今日盘面】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率明显下行。 央行今日公开市场开展2883亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.50%。今日1255亿元逆回购到期。净投放1628亿元。 上午资金面均衡，午后偏宽松。 240011 2.1100/2.1125/2.0930/2.0930 -1.70 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2024. 11. ...

fron Vinger 19.83% 近5年分位数 56. 99% 40.86% 近5年分位数 32. 70% 25.11% 近5年分位数 50. 24% 20交易日涨跌 20交易日涨跌 20交易日涨跌 60交易日涨跌 10.08% 近10年分位数 29.50% 60交易日涨跌 29.39% 近10年分位数 35. 65% 60交易日涨跌 16.58% 近10年分位数 22.27% 年初至今涨跌 -10.39% 近20年分位数 44. 29% 年初至今涨跌 -33.94% 近20年分位数 7.26% 年初至今涨跌 -17.40% 近20年分位数 64.83% 北京:中原房地产领先指数 市场价:浮法平板玻璃:4.8/5mm:全国 30大中城市:商品房成交面积 754.00 -1.44% ▼ 765.00 42.41 前值 1274.00 0.00% ▼ 前值 1274.00 15.46% ◀ 前值 36.73 近5年走势 近5年走势 近5年走势 -18.22% 近5年分位数 0.00% -40.76% 近5年分位数 5. 33% 近1年涨跌 近1年涨跌 30自然日涨跌 161.11% 近5年分位数 3. 50% ...

每日债市复盘 10Y国开(240205) 20240430 2.480 较上一交易日: ↓ 5.35 BP 2.460 政治局会议:要灵活 运用利率和存款准备 2.440 金率等政策工具 2.420 2.400 今日央行大额净投放,PMI数据基本符合预 期,股市小幅下跌,债市利率大幅下行。 2.380 2.360 。今日关注: ☆ 明日关注: b 资金面: 均衡 2.340 OMO净投放4380亿元 4月官方制造业PMI: 美联储议息会议 (5.2) 2.320 R001: 2.00%; R007: 2.09% 50.4, 前值50.8 五一假期消费数据 2.300 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30 11:00 11:30 12:00 12:30 13:00 13:30 14:00 14:30 15:00 15:30 16:00 16:30 17:00 ...