Group 1 - The US dollar index has been on a downward trend since the beginning of the year, with a 10.8% drop in the first half, marking the largest decline since 1973 [1] - The decline in the dollar index reflects a shift in global investor attitudes towards dollar assets, indicating a gradual erosion of the dollar's "privileged halo" as a dominant and safe-haven asset [1][2] - Predictions suggest that the dollar index will continue to decline, with major banks forecasting a further drop of about 3% by the end of 2026 [3][4] Group 2 - The attractiveness of US dollar assets has diminished, with significant sell-offs in US Treasury bonds following the introduction of "reciprocal tariffs" in April 2025, leading to a loss of investor confidence [3][5] - The US labor market's weakness and rising unemployment rates are contributing to the bearish outlook on the dollar, with the unemployment rate reaching 4.6% in November, the highest since October 2021 [4][5] - Political factors are also influencing the independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, raising concerns about potential aggressive easing measures that could further weaken the dollar [5][6] Group 3 - The dollar's status as the world's dominant currency is facing unprecedented challenges, with its share in global foreign exchange reserves dropping to 56.32%, the lowest in 30 years [7] - Experts highlight that the decline of the dollar's dominance could lead to increased instability in the global economy and financial markets, as investors seek to hedge against currency risks [6][7] - The long-term outlook suggests a shift towards a more diversified currency system, with potential growth for other international currencies and assets like gold [9][10]

1. Report Investment Rating - Platinum: ETF shows significant incremental growth, with an expected oscillatory upward trend [1] - Palladium: Demonstrates upward elasticity and is expected to continue strengthening [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the fundamentals of platinum and palladium, including price, trading volume, position, ETF position, inventory, price spread, and exchange rate data. It also provides macro - and industry - related news, and gives the trend intensity of platinum and palladium [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 527.55 with an 8.61% increase; gold - exchange platinum closed at 497.89 with a 5.64% increase; New York platinum continuous contract closed at 1931.50 with a 3.05% increase; London spot platinum closed at 1906.20 with a 3.90% increase. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 455.15 with a 7.38% increase; RMB spot palladium closed at 395.00 with a 2.33% increase; New York palladium continuous contract closed at 1,725.00 with a 3.76% increase; London spot palladium closed at 1,646.50 with a 2.52% increase [1] - **Trading Volume and Position**: Guangzhou platinum trading volume was 97,796, a decrease of 119 from the previous day, with a position of 30,716, an increase of 6,066. NYMEX platinum trading volume was 50,662, an increase of 4,232, and the position was 51,116, a decrease of 3,125. Guangzhou palladium trading volume was 58,188, an increase of 3,302, and the position was 10,036, an increase of 2,402. NYMEX palladium trading volume was 9,919, an increase of 1,430, and the position was 21,368, an increase of 378 [1] - **ETF Position**: The previous day's platinum ETF position (in ounces) was 3,217,562, an increase of 28,589; the previous day's palladium ETF position (in ounces) was 1,126,123, an increase of 1,869 [1] - **Inventory**: NYMEX platinum inventory (in ounces, previous day) was 614,561, unchanged; NYMEX palladium inventory (in ounces, previous day) was 189,230, unchanged [1] - **Price Spread**: PT9995 to PT2606 price spread was - 29.66, a decrease of 15.23 from the previous day; Guangzhou platinum 2606 contract to 2610 contract price spread was 1.65, an increase of 2.20; the cost of buying Guangzhou platinum 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage was 6.52, an increase of 0.49 [1] - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index was 98.40, an increase of 0.18%; the US dollar against the RMB (CNY spot) was 7.04, a decrease of 0.06%; the US dollar against the offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 7.03, a decrease of 0.12%; the US dollar against the RMB (6M forward) was 6.96, an increase of 0.04% [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Federal Reserve's joint survey shows that tariffs continue to trouble enterprises, and prices are expected to rise by 4% next year [4] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller said that monetary policy is still in a restrictive range, with room for interest rate cuts. The employment market indicates that the Federal Reserve should continue to cut interest rates [4] - US media reported that if Putin rejects the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, the US will impose new sanctions on Russia's "shadow fleet", and the White House responded that there is no new decision for now [4] - US and Russia will hold talks on the Russia - Ukraine conflict in Miami this weekend [4] - Venezuelan navy escorts the transportation of petroleum by - products [4] - The US has agreed to modify the tariff rates of some commodities in the notice on Swiss tariffs, and expects to reach a trade agreement by the first quarter of 2026 [4] - The European Parliament has approved an agreement to phase out Russian natural gas imports by the end of 2027 [4] - The Bank of Thailand has no current plan to tax gold - related transactions [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Platinum trend intensity: 1; Palladium trend intensity: 1. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [- 2,2] interval, with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - The Fed's resumption of Treasury bond purchases has led to a marginal easing of liquidity expectations, and the tone of China's Central Economic Work Conference is positive. The short - term risk of a continuous decline in copper prices is small, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [5]. Aluminum - Global aluminum inventories continue to decline, and are at relatively low levels compared to the same period in previous years. With overseas supply disruptions and loose macro - policies, aluminum prices are strongly supported. If inventories continue to decline, aluminum prices are expected to rise further after an oscillatory adjustment [8]. Lead - Lead ore inventories are basically flat, the operating rate of primary lead is declining, while the operating rate of recycled lead is rising. With the ebb of the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market, it is expected that lead prices will operate weakly in a wide range in the short term [10]. Zinc - Zinc ore inventories are decreasing, domestic zinc ingot inventories are decreasing, and LME zinc ingot inventories are slowly increasing. After the ebb of the non - ferrous metals sentiment, Shanghai zinc may give back some of its gains [12]. Tin - Although the current tin market demand is weak and supply is expected to improve, with low downstream inventories, the bargaining power is limited. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [14]. Nickel - The surplus pressure of nickel is still large. It is necessary to wait for ferronickel to further decline in price before testing the cash cost of the pyrometallurgical production line. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [17]. Lithium Carbonate - The cancellation of 27 expired mining rights in Yichun has no real impact on supply, but the expectation of supply - demand pattern repair cannot be falsified. Due to the large intraday price fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to fundamental dynamics and changes in positions [21]. Alumina - After the rainy season, the shipping from Guinea is gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is resuming production. The alumina smelting capacity surplus pattern is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market has entered the traditional off - season, and the supply pressure is expected to ease. The market is currently in a tight - balance pattern, and prices are oscillating widely. It is recommended to wait and see [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively firm, and there are continuous supply disruptions. The demand is relatively volatile, and there is delivery pressure. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [30]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Market Information - The price of silver hit a new high, and copper prices rose. LME copper inventories increased by 325 to 166,925 tons. Domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 to 45,000 tons. The domestic spot copper import loss was about 1,000 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference widened [4]. Strategy Viewpoint - The short - term risk of a continuous decline in copper prices is small, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The operating range of the Shanghai copper main contract is 91,600 - 94,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is 11,600 - 11,900 US dollars/ton [5]. Aluminum Market Information - The LME aluminum cancelled warrants continued to increase, and aluminum prices rose. The SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions decreased slightly, and futures warehouse receipts decreased. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum bar inventories decreased [7]. Strategy Viewpoint - Aluminum prices are strongly supported. If inventories continue to decline, aluminum prices are expected to rise further after an oscillatory adjustment. The operating range of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 21,900 - 22,300 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2,870 - 2,940 US dollars/ton [8]. Lead Market Information - On Wednesday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 0.59% to 16,741 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S fell 1 to 1,943 US dollars/ton. Domestic social inventories increased slightly [9]. Strategy Viewpoint - It is expected that lead prices will operate weakly in a wide range in the short term [10]. Zinc Market Information - On Wednesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.30% to 22,976 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S fell 4.5 to 3,058.5 US dollars/ton. Domestic zinc ingot social inventories decreased [11]. Strategy Viewpoint - After the ebb of the non - ferrous metals sentiment, Shanghai zinc may give back some of its gains [12]. Tin Market Information - On December 17, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 328,600 yuan/ton, up 1.72%. The operating rate of tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi is stable at a high level but lacks upward momentum. The demand for tin ingots has declined, and inventories have increased [13]. Strategy Viewpoint - Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract operating range is 300,000 - 335,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin operating range is 39,000 - 43,000 US dollars/ton [14]. Nickel Market Information - On Wednesday, nickel prices rebounded after hitting a low. The spot premiums of various brands were stable, and the price of ferronickel weakened [16]. Strategy Viewpoint - The surplus pressure of nickel is still large. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The short - term operating range of Shanghai nickel is 110,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is 13,000 - 15,500 US dollars/ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate rose 4.45%. The LC2605 contract closed up 7.97% [20]. Strategy Viewpoint - Due to large intraday price fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to fundamental dynamics and changes in positions. The operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 104,800 - 112,300 yuan/ton [21]. Alumina Market Information - On December 17, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.5% to 2,619 yuan/ton. The spot price in Shandong decreased, and overseas prices also decreased. Futures warehouse receipts decreased [23]. Strategy Viewpoint - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [24]. Stainless Steel Market Information - On Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,380 yuan/ton, up 0.49%. Spot prices in some markets increased, and raw material prices were stable. Social inventories decreased [26]. Strategy Viewpoint - The market is currently in a tight - balance pattern, and prices are oscillating widely. It is recommended to wait and see [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The cast aluminum alloy rebounded, the weighted contract positions decreased, and the volume shrank. The inventory of domestic three - place aluminum alloy ingots decreased [29]. Strategy Viewpoint - Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [30].

新华财经北京12月18日电美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）17日表示，尽管美国通胀持 续放缓，货币政策仍处于限制性区间，未来存在进一步降息空间，但"没有必要急于行动"。 沃勒被视为下一任美联储主席的潜在人选之一，并预计将于18日与特朗普会面。被问及此事时，沃勒回 应称："自己也是这么听说的。"但他明确强调将坚决捍卫美联储独立性。"我花了20年时间研究和捍卫 央行独立性及其重要性，在这方面我留下了大量研究和记录。" 美国劳工统计局即将发布因政府停摆而推迟的10月和11月就业数据。威廉姆斯在活动后对记者表示，预 计报告将显示"就业增长相对缓慢，且劳动力市场逐渐降温的迹象"。但他同时表示，现在讨论2026年1 月FOMC会议选项"还为时过早"。 （文章来源：新华财经） 威廉姆斯强调，今年的三次降息是基于"使通胀过高与就业疲软两大风险大致平衡"的考量。"我们无法 确切知道明年的贸易政策、通胀或经济会发生什么，但我认为我们为此做好了充分准备。" 沃勒在公开采访中指出，当前联邦基金利率水平较其估算的"中性利率"高出最多约100个基点。他预 计，通胀将在2026年前继续降温，并支持以"稳步 ...

再看伦铜，周三一度涨了2%，最终收涨1.25%，报11737美元/吨，其他基本金属也跟着走高。这背后其 实是投资者在等一个关键数据——周四要发布的通胀数据，这数据直接关系到美联储接下来的降息节 奏。芝加哥联储行长都放话了，预计2026年经济增长强劲，要是真这样，利率还有进一步下降的空间。 对于铜这种工业金属来说，美联储的货币政策、全球经济复苏节奏，都是影响需求的核心因素，大家盯 着数据就对了。 最亮眼的还要数贵金属，金价涨到了4344美元/盎司，眼看就要碰纪录高位，白银更是涨了4.42%，铂金 都冲到2008年以来的最高水平了。这波上涨还是离不开避险情绪的推动，一方面是委内瑞拉的局势越来 越紧张，美国不仅封锁还威胁地面打击，另一方面大家也在盯着美国的通胀数据，想从中判断美联储的 政策方向。黄金作为传统避险资产，在这种不确定性高的环境下，自然成了不少投资者的"定心丸"。 聊到这，肯定有朋友问，帮主，中长线该怎么布局？别急，这就给大家上干货策略。首先，油价方面， 短期地缘风险会带来波动，但中长期还是要回归供需基本面，咱们可以关注后续制裁落地情况和全球需 求复苏的节奏，逢低布局相关优质标的，别追高；其次是铜等基本金 ...

央视新闻报道，当地时间12月17日，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒表示，美国货币政策目前仍处于限制性区间，美联储在未来具备进一步降息的空 间。沃勒称，降息并不存在迫切性，美联储可以"稳步地"将政策利率逐步向中性水平靠拢，以应对通胀放缓但经济仍具韧性的局面。 此前，美联储12月会议宣布降息25BP，符合市场一致预期。点阵图显示2026年仍将降息一次，与市场预期2026年2次降息不符合。另外，美联储超预 期宣布将每月买入约400亿美元短债。 据CME"美联储观察"，美联储明年1月降息25个基点的概率为24.4%，维持利率不变的概率为75.6%。到明年3月累计降息25个基点的概率为44.4%，维 持利率不变的概率为46%，累计降息50个基点的概率为9.5%。 美股主要股指集体大跌 当地时间12月17日，美股三大股指集体下跌，截至收盘，道指下跌0.47%，连续4个交易日下跌；纳指跌1.81%，标普500跌1.16%。 美股科技七巨头齐跌，特斯拉跌4.64%，英伟达跌3.81%，谷歌跌3.15%，脸书、苹果下跌超1%，七巨头市值合计蒸发超4000亿美元。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | | -- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is not overly pessimistic. Fed's policy and domestic economic work conference set a positive tone. Different metals have different price trends based on supply - demand and other factors. For short - term trading, it is recommended to be cautious and mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [4][7] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **行情资讯**: US November non - farm data was better than expected, unemployment data was worse than expected, and the US dollar index declined. LME copper 3M contract closed down 0.57% to $11,619/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 91,830 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 725 to 166,600 tons, and the domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts increased by 0.4 to 46,000 tons [3] - **策略观点**: Fed's bond - buying makes liquidity expectations marginally loose, and the domestic central economic work conference has a positive policy tone. The copper ore supply is tight, the refined copper supply is expected to increase, but the downstream operating rate is stable. Short - term copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the SHFE copper main contract operating range of 91,200 - 93,000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M at $11,500 - 11,800/ton [4] Aluminum - **行情资讯**: South32's Mozal aluminum plant will enter maintenance in March 2026. LME aluminum closed up 0.26% to $2,882/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,825 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions decreased by 16,000 to 625,000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,000 to 77,000 tons. Global aluminum inventories are at a relatively low level [6] - **策略观点**: Global aluminum inventories are decreasing, with support from overseas supply disruptions and loose macro - policies. Although there are some negative factors, if inventories continue to decline, aluminum prices may rise after adjustment. The SHFE aluminum main contract operating range is 21,700 - 22,100 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M is at $2,850 - 2,910/ton [7] Lead - **行情资讯**: On Tuesday, the SHFE lead index closed down 1.07% to 16,840 yuan/ton, and the total long - short position was 82,500 lots. LME lead 3S fell by $27 to $1,944/ton, and the total position was 180,500 lots. The domestic social inventory of lead ingots increased slightly by 80 tons to 23,700 tons [9] - **策略观点**: Lead ore inventory is basically stable, the operating rate of primary lead is declining, and that of secondary lead is rising. The downstream battery enterprise operating rate is rising. The domestic lead ingot social inventory is at a relatively low level, but the SHFE lead monthly spread remains low. It is expected that lead prices will be weak in a wide range in the short term [10] Zinc - **行情资讯**: On Tuesday, the SHFE zinc index closed down 1.74% to 23,045 yuan/ton, and the total long - short position was 207,500 lots. LME zinc 3S fell by $91 to $3,063/ton, and the total position was 236,000 lots. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 2,500 tons to 125,700 tons [11] - **策略观点**: The visible inventory of zinc ore is decreasing, and the TC of zinc concentrate is declining. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots is decreasing, and the LME zinc inventory is slowly increasing. After the non - ferrous metals sentiment fades, SHFE zinc may give back some of its gains. The Fed's policy stimulus is limited before March 18 next year [12] Tin - **行情资讯**: On December 16, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 320,620 yuan/ton, down 2.07%. The operating rate of tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi is stable but lacks upward momentum. The demand for tin ingots has declined in the off - season, and the high tin price suppresses downstream purchasing willingness. The national main social inventory of tin ingots increased by 311 tons to 8,245 tons last week [13] - **策略观点**: Although the current tin market demand is weak and supply is expected to improve, due to low downstream inventory, the bargaining power is limited. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract operating range is 300,000 - 335,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin is at $39,000 - 43,000/ton [14] Nickel - **行情资讯**: On Tuesday, nickel prices were weak. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 112,290 yuan/ton, down 2.09%. The spot premium of various brands was stable, and the price of nickel ore was stable, while the price of nickel iron weakened [16] - **策略观点**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large. The price of refined nickel has dropped significantly, and the premium of refined nickel has reached the support level. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The short - term operating range of SHFE nickel is 110,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M is at $13,000 - 15,500/ton [17] Lithium Carbonate - **行情资讯**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 97,569 yuan, up 1.35%. The LC2605 contract closed at 100,600 yuan, down 0.46% [20] - **策略观点**: The lithium carbonate market opened high and closed low. There are differences in the market regarding supply release and demand realization. The probability of a weak adjustment in the lithium price range is relatively high. The reference operating range of the LC2605 contract is 97,800 - 103,200 yuan/ton [21] Alumina - **行情资讯**: On December 16, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.15% to 2,606 yuan/ton, and the total long - short position decreased by 6,000 to 606,000 lots. The Shandong spot price dropped by 5 yuan/ton to 2,670 yuan/ton, with a premium of 129 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 2,400 tons to 246,200 tons [23] - **策略观点**: After the rainy season, the shipment from Guinea is gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is复产. The alumina smelting capacity is in excess, and the inventory is increasing. However, the current price is close to most manufacturers' cost lines, and the probability of production cuts is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [24] Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**: On Tuesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,320 yuan/ton, down 1.28%. The spot price in Foshan and Wuxi decreased. The raw material prices were stable, and the futures inventory decreased by 1,018 tons. The social inventory increased to 1.0636 million tons, a decrease of 1.55% [26] - **策略观点**: The stainless - steel market is in the traditional off - season, and the trading atmosphere is light. The raw material price has increased slightly, and the supply pressure is expected to ease. The market is in a tight balance, and prices fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [26] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**: The main AD2602 contract of cast aluminum alloy closed down 0.33% to 20,950 yuan/ton. The weighted contract positions decreased to 29,000 lots, and the trading volume was 5,700 lots. The domestic mainstream ADC12 price decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly to 48,800 tons [29] - **策略观点**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively firm, and there are continuous supply - side disruptions, providing support for prices. However, demand is unstable, and there is交割 pressure. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [30]

本文字数：1204，阅读时长大约2分钟 2025.12. 17 作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 美国股市周二走势分化，标普500指数连续第三个交易日下跌，医疗保健和能源板块走弱成为主要拖 累；纳斯达克指数则在科技股支撑下小幅收高。投资者继续消化因政府停摆而延迟公布的经济数据， 以判断美联储明年的货币政策走向。 截至收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.62%，报48114.26点；标普500指数下跌0.24%，报6800.26 点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.23%，报23111.46点。 大型科技股涨跌不一。大型科技股走势分化。七巨头中，特斯拉上涨3.07%，创历史收盘新高； Meta上涨1.49%，英伟达上涨0.81%；微软上涨0.33%；苹果上涨0.18%；亚马逊微涨0.01%。谷 歌A股下跌0.54%。博通上涨0.44%，甲骨文上涨2.02%。 中概股表现分化。阿里巴巴下跌0.53%，拼多多下跌1.25%，京东收平；百度上涨0.40%，富途控股 上涨0.93%，蔚来上涨0.80%，小鹏汽车上涨0.87%。 经济数据方面，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，11月非农就业岗位增加6.4万个，较10月有所回升，但 在贸易政策不确 ...

*医疗保健板块领跌，辉瑞下调前景引发板块抛售 *11月非农就业小幅回升，但失业率升至4.6% 【市场概述】 经济数据方面，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，11月非农就业岗位增加6.4万个，较10月有所回升，但在 贸易政策不确定性升温的背景下，11月失业率升至4.6%。与此同时，另一份数据显示，10月美国零售 销售持平，低于经济学家预期的0.1%增幅。 市场人士表示，近期数据受政府停摆影响明显，统计过程存在扰动，短期内难以形成清晰判断。 芝加哥FHN Financial宏观策略师威尔·康珀诺尔表示，当天的数据"并未释放明确方向性信号"。他表 示，失业率升至4.6%是最值得关注的变化，但劳工统计局在技术说明中已明确提示，11月数据的误差 幅度明显偏高。 *债券收益率回落，黄金走强，油价大幅下挫 美国股市周二走势分化，标普500指数连续第三个交易日下跌，医疗保健和能源板块走弱成为主要拖 累；纳斯达克指数则在科技股支撑下小幅收高。投资者继续消化因政府停摆而延迟公布的经济数据，以 判断美联储明年的货币政策走向。 截至收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.62%，报48114.26点；标普500指数下跌0.24%，报6800.26点 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, exceeding the Dow Jones estimate of 45,000 [5] - The healthcare sector contributed significantly with 46,000 new jobs, while construction added 28,000 jobs and social assistance added 18,000 jobs [5] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest level since September 2021, with a loss of 105,000 jobs in October primarily due to over 150,000 federal employees leaving [6] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a low probability of further rate cuts, with a 24.4% chance of a rate cut in January and a 78% chance of keeping rates unchanged [8] - Following the release of the employment data, the Fed's benchmark interest rate is currently set in the range of 3.5% to 3.75% after three consecutive cuts since September [8] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank is in a wait-and-see mode due to data interruptions and economic uncertainty, emphasizing the need to monitor employment creation closely [8]