国内沪金，积存金走势： 国国内黄金随着过国际市场的超涨，沪金，积存金也出现大涨空间，当前沪金最高在818附近，积存金最高811 附近，这波趋势上涨很难想象出有如此大的空间。还是维持张德盛之前的看法，这波国内金，看涨不猜顶，多 头趋势下绝对不做多，只能等待回落做多，没有其他的什么方式，方法。这波走成这样，做了多也看不了那么 多，等待回落多。本周还是等数据公布后，再看具体的交易。 一篇文章的牵引，可能看不出什么，但是长长久久的精准分析，才是我们稳步提升利润的主要途径。可能你见 过太多的分析，也见过太多的盈利，然而亏损还是跟随你，那是因为你总喜欢综合分析操作，而市场本身就是 多数必死，少数必盈的抉择。综合分析，不如只跟一人，虽然没人能保证百分百盈利，但是，我们只要建立入 场、出场、风控三位一体的平衡术，实现稳定盈利即可。积少成多，其实也没那么难。 黄金走势分析： 黄金多头趋势不变，上涨不猜顶，日内交易原则，等待回落做多，下方支撑3525，3500，确认低点后再做有效 交易。现在黄金不用做过多分析，在美联储的降息环境下，黄金被主力，市场推动上涨，并且上涨无法猜顶， 在这种情况下，建议只有一个就是做多，但每次的上涨也无 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The macro - sentiment is generally stable, and the market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate cut in September. Geopolitical factors are bullish, and OPEC+ is likely to keep the production policy unchanged after October. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [1][2]. - For asphalt, the short - term price is mainly volatile, with strong cost support and a slight decline in supply at the beginning of September, driving the industry chain to continue destocking [3][4]. - High - sulfur fuel oil has high supply and inventory in Asia, and the supply pressure in the third quarter is less than expected. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a continuous decline in spot premium, with increasing supply and no specific demand drivers [5][6]. - PX prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, with the start - up rate increasing in Asia and the downstream PTA having a restart plan in the fourth quarter, and there is still an expectation of destocking [8][9]. - PTA's September start - up rate will be repaired upwards, but there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter [11][12]. - Ethylene glycol's overall start - up rate will increase at a high level in September, and the visible inventory is expected to rise in the middle and late September [13][14]. - Short - fiber prices follow the raw materials, and the short - fiber processing fee is expected to be supported with some factories having production reduction plans in September [15]. - Polyester bottle - chip prices are expected to be volatile, with relatively abundant supply and the downstream demand transitioning from peak to off - peak season [18]. - Pure benzene prices are expected to be volatile, with an expected increase in port inventory and lack of upward drivers in the supply - demand side. Styrene still faces the pressure of inventory accumulation [19][21]. - Propylene prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, with the market tending to be loose overall and strong support from the upstream raw material end [22][23]. - Plastic PP prices are expected to be volatile and weak, with new production capacity expected to be put into operation and the peak - season demand likely to be weak [24][25]. - PVC prices are still under pressure, with weak supply - demand reality and expectations. Caustic soda's medium - term supply - demand expectation is still favorable, but there is large near - end game [29]. - Soda ash prices are expected to be weak in the short term, with increasing supply and weakening macro - drive [32]. - Glass prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, with stable supply and uncertain demand improvement [34][35]. - Methanol prices should be shorted on rallies, with increasing supply and high port inventory [36][37]. - Urea prices are expected to be volatile, with the domestic supply being loose and the demand showing a downward trend, but the Indian tender has a certain support for the market [38]. - Double - offset paper production is difficult to increase significantly, with weak demand and limited cost support [40][41]. - Log prices are in a weak balance in the short term, and the medium - and long - term market needs to pay attention to supply and demand changes [42][43]. - Pulp prices can be lightly tested for long positions in the SP11 contract [45][46]. - BR prices should hold short positions in the BR10 contract, and natural rubber should hold long positions in the RU01 contract [49][52]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2510 contract settled at $65.59, up $1.58/barrel, +2.47% month - on - month; Brent2511 contract settled at $69.14, up $0.99/barrel, +1.45% month - on - month [1]. - **Related News**: Trump will ask the Supreme Court for a quick ruling on the tariff case, and he also called for a "substantial" interest rate cut by the Fed. The US manufacturing PMI in August rose slightly to 48.7 but was still below the boom - bust line [1]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - sentiment is stable, geopolitical factors are bullish, and OPEC+ is likely to keep the production policy unchanged after October. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the Brent contract operating in the range of $68.5 - $69.5/barrel [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2510 closed at 3549 points at night (- 0.06%), and BU2512 closed at 3492 points at night (+0.00%). The spot price in Shandong rose by 30 yuan/ton, and that in South China rose by 10 yuan/ton [3]. - **Related News**: In the Shandong market, the increase in crude oil and futures prices boosted market sentiment, and the terminal demand was relatively stable. In the Yangtze River Delta market, the supply increased slightly, and the inventory was at a medium - low level. In the South China market, the price was slightly pushed up due to improved market sentiment and demand [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term price is mainly volatile, with strong cost support and a slight decline in supply at the beginning of September, driving the industry chain to continue destocking [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to be volatile and strong; for the spread, the asphalt - crude oil spread is volatile; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU01 contract closed at 2830 at night (- 0.39%), and LU11 closed at 3530 at night (- 0.34%). The high - sulfur Sep/Oct spread in the Singapore paper - cargo market was $0.8/ton, and the low - sulfur Sep/Oct spread was $2.38/ton [5]. - **Related News**: The Dangote refinery in Nigeria exported the first batch of gasoline to North America at the end of August, and the RFCC unit resumed operation on August 22. There were no transactions in the Singapore spot window on September 2 [5]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur fuel oil has high supply and inventory in Asia, and the supply pressure in the third quarter is less than expected. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a continuous decline in spot premium, with increasing supply and no specific demand drivers [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to be weakly volatile; for the spread, pay attention to the short - term contango opportunity for low - sulfur fuel oil [8]. PX - **Market Review**: The PX2511 main contract fluctuated and sorted out, closing at 6834 during the day (- 32/- 0.47%) and 6862 at night (+28/+0.41%). The PX spot price was estimated at $846/ton, down $2/ton month - on - month [8]. - **Related News**: A factory in East China postponed the restart of its PX and PTA units. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: Geopolitical conflicts and US sanctions on some oil - producing countries pushed up oil prices. The Asian PX start - up rate continued to increase, and the downstream PTA had a restart plan in the fourth quarter, with an expectation of destocking [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to be volatile at a high level; for the spread and options, it is recommended to wait and see [11]. PTA - **Market Review**: The TA601 main contract fluctuated and sorted out, closing at 4756 during the day (- 16/- 0.34%) and 4766 at night (+10/+0.21%). The PTA spot basis continued to weaken [11]. - **Related News**: Some PTA units were restarting or shutting down, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [11][12]. - **Logic Analysis**: The September start - up rate will be repaired upwards, but there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to fluctuate and sort out; for the spread and options, it is recommended to wait and see [13]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The EG2601 futures main contract closed at 4339 (- 88/- 1.19%) during the day and 4363 (+24/+0.55%) at night. The spot basis was at a premium of 85 - 88 yuan/ton to the 01 contract [13]. - **Related News**: The ethylene glycol inventory in East China's main ports decreased by 5.1 tons week - on - week, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were light [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: The overall start - up rate will increase at a high level in September, and the visible inventory is expected to rise in the middle and late September [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to be volatile and weak; for the spread, it is recommended to do basis positive spread; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [14]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: The PF2510 main contract closed at 6438 during the day (- 30/- 0.46%) and 6446 at night (+8/+0.12%). The price of straight - spun polyester staple in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was stable [15]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were light, and a factory in Xinjiang restarted its 200,000 - ton straight - spun polyester staple unit [15]. - **Logic Analysis**: Short - fiber prices follow the raw materials, and the short - fiber processing fee is expected to be supported with some factories having production reduction plans in September [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to fluctuate and sort out; for the spread and options, it is recommended to wait and see [16]. Polyester Bottle - Chip - **Market Review**: The PR2511 main contract closed at 5910 (- 40/- 0.67%) during the day and 5928 at night (+18/+0.30%). The polyester bottle - chip market transaction atmosphere was average [16][18]. - **Related News**: The export quotation of polyester bottle - chip factories was partially lowered [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is expected to be volatile, with relatively abundant supply and the downstream demand transitioning from peak to off - peak season [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to fluctuate and sort out; for the spread and options, it is recommended to wait and see [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: The BZ2503 main contract of pure benzene and styrene futures closed at 5936 during the day (- 74/- 1.23%) and 6012 at night (+76/+1.28%); the EB2510 main contract closed at 6934 during the day (- 79/- 1.13%) and 7018 at night (+84/+1.21%). The spot price of pure benzene in East China decreased by 20 yuan/ton [18][19]. - **Related News**: A new cracking ethylene unit in Shandong Yulong plans to be put into operation in mid - September [20]. - **Logic Analysis**: Pure benzene prices are expected to be volatile, with an expected increase in port inventory and lack of upward drivers in the supply - demand side. Styrene still faces the pressure of inventory accumulation [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to fluctuate and sort out; for the spread, it is recommended to go long on pure benzene and short on styrene; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [22]. Propylene - **Market Review**: The PL2601 main contract closed at 6405 (- 18/- 0.28%) during the day and 6425 at night (+20/+0.31%). The propylene price in Shandong rose slightly [22]. - **Related News**: The listing price of propylene of Sinopec East China Sales Company was stable [22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The propylene market is generally loose, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short term, with strong support from the upstream raw material end [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to fluctuate and sort out; for the spread and options, it is recommended to wait and see [24]. Plastic PP - **Market Review**: The mainstream transaction price of LLDPE in North China decreased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton, and the mainstream transaction price of PP拉丝 in North China decreased by 30/0 yuan/ton [24]. - **Related News**: The PE maintenance ratio decreased by 0.8 percentage points, and the PP maintenance ratio increased by 0.84 percentage points [24]. - **Logic Analysis**: There is new production capacity expected to be put into operation for plastic PP, and the peak - season demand is likely to be weak, so the price is expected to be volatile and weak [25][26]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to be volatile and weak; for the spread and options, it is recommended to wait and see [26]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The domestic PVC powder market price was slightly adjusted, and the caustic soda price in Shandong was stable, while the price in Jiangsu increased [26][27]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was basically unchanged, and the price of caustic soda in Shandong Jinning was stable [28][29]. - **Logic Analysis**: PVC prices are still under pressure, with weak supply - demand reality and expectations. Caustic soda's medium - term supply - demand expectation is still favorable, but there is large near - end game [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, PVC is recommended to maintain a short - selling idea, and caustic soda is recommended to wait and see; for the spread and options, it is recommended to wait and see [30]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures main 01 contract closed at 1267 yuan (- 4/- 0.3%) during the day and 1280 yuan at night (13/1.0%). The SA9 - 1 spread was - 115 yuan [31]. - **Related News**: Some soda ash production equipment had changes in operation status, and the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The soda ash supply increases, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term, with weakening macro - drive [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to be weak; for the spread, it is recommended to go long on FG01 and short on SA01, and pay attention to the 1 - 5 backwardation strategy in the first half of the month; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [33]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures main 01 contract closed at 1134 yuan/ton (- 3/- 0.26%) during the day and 1141 yuan/ton at night (7/0.62%). The 9 - 1 spread was - 179 yuan [34]. - **Related News**: The spot price of float glass increased slightly, and the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises increased [34][35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The glass supply is stable, and the demand improvement is uncertain. The price is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to be volatile and weak; for the spread, it is recommended to go long on FG01 and short on SA01; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [36]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2393 (+15/+0.63%). The production - area and consumption - area prices were reported [36]. - **Related News**: The international methanol (excluding China) production increased, and the device capacity utilization rate increased [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international device start - up rate is stable, the import is gradually recovering, and the port inventory is increasing. The domestic supply is loose, and it is recommended to short on rallies [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is recommended to short at high levels; for the spread, it is recommended to wait and see; for options, it is recommended to sell call options [38]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures fluctuated widely and closed at 1746 (+9/+0.52%). The ex - factory price was stable [38]. - **Related News**: The daily urea production increased, and India tendered for 200,000 tons of urea [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic supply is loose, and the demand is showing a downward trend, but the Indian tender

新世纪期货|聚酯策略月报 2025-09-02 能化组 电话：0571-87923821 邮编：310000 地址：杭州市下城区万寿亭 13 号 网址 http://www.zjncf.com.cn 相关报告 风险: 9月聚酯展望 -- 原料扰动加剧,金九等待考验 观点摘要: PX: 9 月,预计油价震荡偏弱。PX 负荷波动不大,仅有福海创装置、天津石化检修 恢复,大樹负荷有提升预期,福佳计划内检修,PX供应端波动不大,需求方面,过 低的加工差加剧 PTA 装置减停产,PX需求计划外减少。PX 供需未有利好支撑,叠加 成本端预期偏弱,预计 Px 价格弱势为主。 PTA: 9 月 PTA 价格可能不能过于乐观,加工费依旧低位运行。随着传统消费旺季临 近,聚酯负荷逐步提升,PTA供需延续去库,但中期 PTA 装置计划检修少,且有 PTA 新装置投产预期,另外聚酯需求淡季回落。成本端变数较大,且 PTA 供需格局近强 远弱,限制 PTA 价格反弹空间。 MEG: 短期来看,MEG 市场结构表现中性,港口库存低位运行为主。价格回落至低位 过程中聚酯工厂以及合约商存在补货需求。但是 MEG 远月存在累库预期，01 合约 ...

主动权益基金发行回暖。 今年以来，伴随A股市场回暖，以及主动权益基金业绩回升，主动权益基金新发产品数量和规模均出现稳步攀升，近日还 出现了单日募集超50亿元的盛况。 9月2日，招商基金旗下招商均衡优选混合基金发布募集规模上限的公告称，决定设置基金的募集规模上限为50亿元。据 券商中国记者了解，招商均衡优选混合基金在9月2日发售首日的募集规模就超过了50亿元，为维护投资者长期利益，提 前结束募集。在招商均衡优选混合基金募集成立后，其有望成为今年发行规模最大的主动权益基金。 值得注意的是，主动权益基金发行持续升温，新发规模连破年内纪录，若招商均衡优选混合基金以50亿元规模成立，有 望成为今年新发规模最大的主动权益基金。 截至9月2日，今年募集规模超50亿元的基金共有10只，分别为2只FOF和8只债券型基金。权益基金中，今年仅有2只ETF 联接基金募集规模超过了40亿元。 发行规模居前的主动权益基金分别是大成洞察优势、易方达价值回报、中欧核心智选和华商致远回报，发行规模均在20 亿至25亿元之间。其中大成洞察优势混合于7月16日成立，发行规模达24.61亿元，在当时创下年内主动权益基金首发规模 新高。 发行首日募集 ...

周五发布的美国就业报告，可能将显示一幅劳动力市场温和回暖的景象，但这或许不足以改变美联储的 降息预期。 据追风交易台消息，美银美林分析师Shruti Mishra在最新研报中表示，强于预期的就业增长可能难以撼 动市场对于9月份降息的定价，因为潜在的疲软信号和美联储主席的鸽派立场已经为政策宽松铺平了道 路。 美银预计，周五公布的美国8月非农就业人数将增加9万人，高于7月份的7.3万人和7.5万人的市场普遍预 期。该行指出，尽管首次申请失业金人数的四周均值仍处于温和水平，同时续请失业金人数出现下降， 这些因素共同支撑了就业增长小幅加速的判断。 然而，报告强调，市场焦点将集中在对7月非农的修正值上。考虑到今年以来每月初值均被下修，以及7 月较低的调查问卷回收率，该数据存在被大幅下修的可能，这或将揭示出比预期更持久的劳动力市场疲 软。 美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的鸽派言论已然设定了基调，即需要非常强劲的数据才 能阻止9月的降息。报告认为，虽然其官方预测仍是"维持利率不变"，但风险已"明显地转向降息一 侧"。 7月非农仍有下修风险 历史数据修正的趋势，已成为评估美国劳动力市场真实健康状况的关键。 报告强 ...

贵金属的狂欢盛宴还在演绎。 近来，金银价格蒙眼狂奔，资本市场情绪持续高涨。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 演員集部 | 涨跌幅 V | 总市值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601069 | 西部黄金 | 26.51 | +2.41 | 10.00% | 241.51亿 | | 000506 | 招金黄金 | 10.32 | +0.51 | 5.20% | 95.87 Z | | 600489 | 中金黄金 | 18.11 | +0.35 | 1.97% | 877.85 Z | | 600547 | 山东直金 | 36.29 | +0.38 | 1.06% | 1623.41亿 | | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 √ | 总市值 | | 03330 | 灵宝面金 | 16.320 | +0.720 | 4.62% | 210.03亿 | | 01818 | 招金矿业 | 27.440 | +0.620 | 2.31% | 972.03亿 | | 00621 | 坛金矿业(新) | 0.600 | +0.010 | 1.69% ...

来源：滚动播报 摩根士丹利在8月底修正了他们对美联储今年将降息两次的预期。他们重申，预计美联储将在9月份降 息，但警告称，这并非板上钉钉的事。摩根士丹利指出，强劲的就业人数或关税推动的通胀大幅上升， 可能会推迟美联储本月降息的计划。他们补充称，美联储内部的辩论也是一个障碍，可能会出现分歧， 因为一些政策制定者可能认为，美联储过早仓促降息。但另一方面，就业人数大幅下降，加之市场对前 置降息的押注，可能会迫使美联储更快采取行动。话虽如此，摩根士丹利仍然认为，美联储明年将继续 走鸽派路线。该机构仍然假美联储在2026年每季度降息一次，终端利率为2.75%至3.00%。 ...

基本面分析： 金十数据中心显示，全球最大黄金上市交易基金(ETF)截至09月02日持仓量为990.56吨，较上日增持12.88吨，上月止净增持24.60吨。 债务危机与政治风险交织，英、德、法多国长期国债收益率攀升至多年高位。阿根廷主权债及汇率暴跌，财政部紧急干预汇市。特朗普将请求最高法 院"快速裁决"全球关税案，警告败诉将带来 "前所未见的震荡"，胜诉则股市会大涨。财长贝森特对最高法院支持关税有信心，同时准备备选方案。与此同 时，特朗普持续施压美联储，侵蚀市场对美联储独立性的信心，加剧市场避险情绪，将金银价格推向创纪录高位。美国8月ISM制造业指数48.7，连续六个 月萎缩，新订单略有回暖，价格波动趋缓，产出下滑。市场押注美联储9月降息25基点的概率超92%，迭加黄金消费旺季，金价连涨六日有望再创新高。周 二，长期收益率上行令英镑和日元等非美货币承压，尽管美元指数六个交易日以来首次收涨，但得益于降息预期升温，地缘政治和贸易摩擦下的弹性避险 需求，周二现货黄金大涨收报于3533.25美元/盎司，日内波动于3470.16至3540.02美元间。投资者聚焦非农数据，以寻找9月份降息幅度线索，若就业疲软 或触发50 ...

Group 1 - The recent surge in the Chinese financial market is characterized by a strong appreciation of the Renminbi and the A-share market, attracting global attention [1][2] - Since August, the offshore Renminbi has appreciated nearly 1000 basis points against the US dollar, with a total increase of approximately 3000 basis points since early April [1] - The Renminbi's strength is supported by multiple internal and external factors, including a weakening US dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] Group 2 - China's economic resilience is a crucial foundation for the Renminbi's strength, with a cumulative export growth rate of 6.1% from January to July and a rebound in trade settlement [2] - The A-share market has seen significant activity, with margin trading balances exceeding historical highs, reaching approximately 2.3 trillion yuan [2] - Foreign capital inflows into the Chinese stock market have indirectly supported the Renminbi's appreciation from around 7.2 to 7.13 since early August [2] Group 3 - The market is focused on whether the Renminbi can break the psychological barrier of 7.0, with expectations of continued appreciation driven by a strong middle rate [3] - Analysts suggest that the Renminbi may experience a rapid convergence of onshore and offshore rates, with potential upward movement towards 7.1 [3] - Despite the positive outlook, challenges remain, particularly in the real estate market and private demand, which may limit the extent of the Renminbi's and A-share market's strength [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and increased market risk aversion, with both London spot gold and New York futures reaching historical highs [2][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Performance - As of September 3, London spot gold surpassed $3540, peaking at $3546.9, while New York futures exceeded $3600, reaching $3616.9, marking a year-to-date increase of 37% [3]. - The Shanghai gold futures contract rose by 1.2% to ¥813.74 per gram, with a peak of ¥816.78, while the Shanghai spot gold price increased by 1.1% to ¥810.80 per gram [3]. - Gold ETFs have shown strong performance, with 14 gold ETFs rising over 29% year-to-date, and six gold stock ETFs increasing over 60%, led by the Yongying CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry ETF at 67.17% [3]. Group 2: Silver Market Performance - Silver prices also maintained an upward trend, with New York silver futures reaching $41.99 and London spot silver hitting $40.9, both the highest levels since 2012 [4]. - The Shanghai silver futures contract reached ¥9864 per kilogram, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 31% [4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Impact - Analysts from Morgan Stanley predict a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with expectations of another cut by year-end, historically leading to significant increases in gold and silver prices [5]. - The market anticipates a nearly 90% probability of a rate cut in September, with potential for two cuts within the year [5]. Group 4: Global Economic Factors - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, particularly following President Trump's actions, have heightened market anxiety, contributing to the rise in gold prices as a safe-haven asset [6]. - Emerging market countries are diversifying their foreign exchange reserves by increasing gold holdings, with global gold demand projected to rise by 3% year-on-year to 1249 tons by Q2 2025 [7]. Group 5: Future Price Projections - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data release on September 5 is expected to significantly influence gold prices, with predictions of a slowdown in the labor market [8]. - Analysts suggest that if historical trends repeat, gold prices could rise to approximately $3700 per ounce during the initial months of a rate cut cycle, with a long-term outlook suggesting potential for prices to exceed $5000 [9].