Core Viewpoint - The increasing enthusiasm of depositors to save money is driven by concerns over unemployment and health emergencies, as well as the perceived risks associated with higher-yield investment products like stocks and funds [1]. Group 1: Deposit Trends - In the first eleven months of 2025, residents' deposits increased by 120.6 billion yuan [1]. - The decline in deposit interest rates has been noted since 2023, with the three-year fixed deposit rate dropping from 3.25% to 1.75%, resulting in a decrease of 1,500 yuan in annual interest income for a 100,000 yuan deposit [6]. Group 2: Recommendations for Depositors - Depositors should consider moving funds to joint-stock banks, which typically offer higher interest rates than state-owned banks, while still being safer than village and commercial banks [6]. - For deposits exceeding 200,000 yuan, purchasing large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) is advisable, as they offer higher rates and transferability [6]. - A diversified asset allocation strategy is recommended to counteract the inability of deposit rates to outpace inflation, with examples provided for conservative investors [9]. Group 3: Liquidity and Safety - Maintaining liquidity is crucial; depositors are advised to avoid locking all funds in long-term deposits to prevent losses from early withdrawals due to emergencies [12]. - A suggested strategy includes keeping a portion of funds in short-term large-denomination CDs while locking the remainder in longer-term deposits [12]. Group 4: Bank Stability Concerns - The number of small bank failures is expected to rise, with recent examples including Baoshang Bank and Liao Yang Rural Commercial Bank [17]. - Depositors should ensure their banks display deposit insurance symbols, diversify their deposits across multiple banks, and understand the difference between deposits and investment products to ensure coverage in case of bank failures [17].

土耳其政府上调燃油、烟草及酒精饮品的定额消费税，此次涨幅低于生产者通胀水平。政策制定者此举 旨在支持央行放缓物价上涨的努力。 根据周三《官方公报》发布的一项决议，政府将汽油和柴油的定额税提高6.95%，烟草与酒精饮品的定 额税提高7.95%。 土耳其官方通讯社阿纳多卢通讯社援引财政部消息称，土耳其每年1月和7月会根据前六个月生产者价格 指数（PPI）的变动情况，对所谓的"定额消费税"进行两次调整。此次最新加税幅度小于同期生产者价 格涨幅，核心目的是为抑制通胀提供支持。 责任编辑：陈钰嘉 土耳其政府上调燃油、烟草及酒精饮品的定额消费税，此次涨幅低于生产者通胀水平。政策制定者此举 旨在支持央行放缓物价上涨的努力。 根据周三《官方公报》发布的一项决议，政府将汽油和柴油的定额税提高6.95%，烟草与酒精饮品的定 额税提高7.95%。 土耳其官方通讯社阿纳多卢通讯社援引财政部消息称，土耳其每年1月和7月会根据前六个月生产者价格 指数（PPI）的变动情况，对所谓的"定额消费税"进行两次调整。此次最新加税幅度小于同期生产者价 格涨幅，核心目的是为抑制通胀提供支持。 责任编辑：陈钰嘉 ...

（央视财经《第一时间》）2025年，美国对绝大多数贸易伙伴征收所谓"对等关税"，经合组织2025年12月初发布最新经济展望报告，称美国关税对全球经济 的影响正在进一步显现，并传导至消费端。美国消费者也不例外，不少美国民众表示，超市里所有的东西都在涨价，他们被迫改变购物习惯。 作为美国零售行业巨头之一，沃尔玛超市一贯主打低价战略，吸引了不少低收入家庭来此采购。2025年，"性价比"成了当前美国消费者在采购时最看中的因 素。沃尔玛自有品牌商品通常是同类型中较为实惠的选择。以美国人常喝的咖啡为例，最新数据显示，每磅（约454克）咖啡粉的平均零售价格同比上涨了 近35%。一款净含量为12盎司（约340克）的沃尔玛自有品牌咖啡目前售价为6.98美元（约合人民币48.8元），如果一个美国家庭每周只喝掉1包这样的咖 啡，一年也得多花近100美元（将近700元人民币）。 但是通胀并不仅仅是报告中的数字，对于普通民众来说，每一次在超市结账时，都能真实地感受到价格的上涨。从一袋咖啡粉到一盒牛肉馅，价格的变化意 味着每个家庭都要拿出更多的钱来支付。有美国经济学家表示，预计未来几个月，关税成本将逐步传递给消费者，这一过程将会是漫长且 ...

最新数据显示，2025年11月美国消费者价格指数同比上涨2.7%，低于9月的3%与市场普遍预期的3.1%，呈现出通胀降温的迹象。 作为美国零售行业巨头之一，沃尔玛超市一贯主打低价战略，吸引了不少低收入家庭来此采购。2025年，"性价比"成了当前美国消费者在采购时最看重 的因素。沃尔玛自有品牌商品通常是同类型中较为实惠的选择。以美国人常喝的咖啡为例，最新数据显示，每磅咖啡粉也就是约454克的平均零售价格同比 上涨了近35%。这款净含量为12盎司，也就是约340克的沃尔玛自有品牌咖啡目前售价为6.98美元，约合人民币48.8元。如果一个美国家庭每周只喝掉1包这 样的咖啡，一年也得多花近100美元、将近700元人民币。 通过美国家庭的必备食材牛肉也能直观体现出物价的上涨。如今，牛肉馅的每磅平均零售价同比上涨约16%，而牛腿肉价格的涨幅则更加明显，同比上 涨约25%。美国的常见食物如汉堡、千层面等都离不开牛肉，肉价上涨使得很多消费者不得不改买鸡肉甚至豆类和蛋类等来替代。 央视网消息：2025年，美国对绝大多数贸易伙伴征收所谓"对等关税"，经合组织2025年12月初发布最新经济展望报告，称美国关税对全球经济的影响正 在 ...

Summary of the 2026 Fixed Income Strategy Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the fixed income market and monetary policy outlook for 2026, emphasizing government bonds and credit strategies. Key Points and Arguments Monetary Policy Expectations - A moderate easing of monetary policy is anticipated in 2026, with a potential interest rate cut likely after the Spring Festival, although the probability of a January cut is low [1][3] - The central bank may maintain liquidity through reverse repos or reserve requirement ratio cuts to support government bond issuance [1][4] Inflation and Economic Indicators - Inflation is expected to rebound in 2026, with CPI averaging around 0.5%, PPI at approximately -1.1%, and GDP deflator at about 0.3% [1][5] - This inflation rebound is projected to raise the 10-year government bond yield by nearly 10 basis points, keeping the annual interest rate around 1.8-1.85% if a 10 basis point cut occurs [1][5] Investment Strategies - A 2-3 year credit carry strategy is recommended, with a net carry of over 40 basis points, potentially yielding returns of 2-2.1% [1][10] - Focus on low-frequency, high-probability, high-reward strategies, particularly in the context of rising interest rate expectations for 5-year and 10-year bonds [1][10] Government Bond Supply and Fiscal Policy - Government bond supply pressure is expected to peak in the first quarter, May-June, and August-September, with the central bank likely providing liquidity support during these periods [1][18] - Fiscal expansion is anticipated, but at a slower pace than the previous year, with total fiscal scale projected to reach around 15 trillion yuan [1][16] Credit and Local Government Bonds - Local government bonds should be monitored for issuance rhythm and supply pressure, with a recommendation to increase allocation under a loose monetary policy [6][18] - Credit bonds should be selected based on corporate fundamentals and industry outlook, with a focus on high-quality enterprises during economic recovery [6][38] Convertible Bonds and Equity Strategies - The convertible bond market is expected to exhibit institutional characteristics, with high premium new bonds favored [3][27] - Strategies should adapt to equity market performance, increasing exposure to high-conversion value convertible bonds when market conditions are favorable [7][8] Risk Management and Market Environment - The overall market environment in 2026 is expected to remain stable, with limited upward movement in interest rates unless inflation significantly exceeds expectations [12][19] - Emphasis on capturing opportunities through logical, high-probability strategies, particularly around anticipated interest rate cuts [12][10] Specific Investment Recommendations - Short-term strategies should focus on short-end government bonds, policy financial bonds, and certificates of deposit, particularly 2-3 year credit bonds and 5-year government bonds [11][19] - Long-end active bonds may be considered if the central bank exceeds expectations in rate cuts or bond purchases; otherwise, short-term high-frequency trading is advised [11][19] Conclusion - The 2026 fixed income market is characterized by a cautious yet optimistic outlook, with strategies focusing on credit carry, local government bonds, and convertible bonds, while maintaining vigilance against potential risks in the credit market [12][38]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call records focus on the U.S. Treasury market and interest rate outlook for 2026, with insights from various financial institutions including Barclays, HSBC, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, and Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Core Insights and Arguments U.S. Treasury Market Outlook 1. **Yield Curve Dynamics**: - Barclays predicts a steepening of the yield curve, with 2-year yields expected to drop to 3.1% and 30-year yields remaining around 4.7%, resulting in a 2s30s spread of 160 basis points [6][10]. - HSBC anticipates a bear steepening of the yield curve, projecting a 10-year yield of 4.30% by the end of 2026 [15][19]. - Morgan Stanley suggests that the Fed's rate cuts may be less than market expectations, with a forecast of only 50 basis points of cuts [25][26]. 2. **Federal Reserve Policy**: - The new leadership at the Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a more dovish stance, potentially lowering rates below neutral levels [6][7]. - The Fed is projected to end quantitative tightening (QT) and begin purchasing T-bills to maintain adequate reserves, with an estimated purchase of $330 billion in T-bills in 2026 [10][31]. 3. **Fiscal Deficit and Inflation**: - The fiscal deficit is expected to remain around 6% of GDP, approximately $1.9 trillion, with inflation projected to stabilize around 2% [6][10][25]. - Concerns about inflation resurgence due to fiscal expansion and tariff impacts are highlighted, with core PCE inflation expected to remain above 2% [41][48]. Supply and Demand Dynamics 1. **Net Supply Projections**: - A significant reduction in net supply of U.S. Treasuries is anticipated, with a decrease of approximately $470 billion to $1.2 trillion in 2026 [6][58]. - Investment-grade corporate bonds are expected to see an increase in net supply, driven by mergers and acquisitions [58]. 2. **Market Demand**: - Bank demand for mid-term Treasuries is expected to rebound due to regulatory changes [9]. - Continuous inflows into bond funds are supporting demand, particularly for MBS, which are favored due to their attractive spreads [58][62]. Investment Recommendations 1. **Asset Recommendations**: - Barclays recommends going long on 2-year Treasuries to capitalize on anticipated rate cuts [10]. - HSBC suggests positioning in the belly of the curve (5-year Treasuries) for lower structural risk and positive carry [21]. - Deutsche Bank advises a cautious approach to long-dated Treasuries, predicting underperformance relative to swaps [39]. 2. **Strategic Themes**: - "Carry is king" is emphasized as a core investment strategy, focusing on high-yield bonds and leveraged loans due to their attractive coupon rates in a stable interest rate environment [41][47]. - The potential for a bear steepening of the yield curve is noted, with strategies to exploit this dynamic [21][47]. Other Important Insights - The reports highlight a complex economic landscape characterized by resilient growth, sticky inflation, and the dual risks of fiscal deterioration and inflation rebound [7][17]. - The impact of AI-driven capital expenditures and fiscal stimulus from legislation like the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) is noted as a potential growth driver [41][48]. - The need for caution regarding economic recession risks and policy uncertainties is emphasized, particularly in relation to tariffs and Fed independence [26][37]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the U.S. Treasury market outlook and associated investment strategies for 2026.

国际贵金属巨震，现货黄金一度拉升小幅上涨，截至发稿，现货白银跌幅收窄至2.95%。 分析称，美国上周首次申领失业救济的人数降至今年以来的最低水平之一，凸显了假日期间数据的波动 性。 晚间，美股三大指数高开后小幅跳水，均转为下跌。黄金、白银盘中拉升。 12月31日晚间，美股三大指数小幅高开，道琼斯指数涨0.03%，标普500指数涨0.05%，纳斯达克综合指 数涨0.08%。截至发稿，三大指数均下跌。 个股方面，英伟达开盘涨超1%。消息面上，据媒体报道，英伟达公司披露，已通过私募方式完成50亿 美元英特尔公司股份的收购。 耐克涨超2%。消息面上，公司获蒂姆・库克大举增持公司股票，据金融数据提供商Verity披露，苹果公 司首席执行官蒂姆・库克同时担任这家运动服饰制造商的董事，此次增持了约5万股耐克股票，其持股 比例增幅高达90%。 特朗普媒体科技集团（DJT）一度涨超6%。消息面上，公司宣布计划向股东分发数字代币（Digital Token）。 中概股走势分化，纳斯达克中国金龙指数走低，盘中下跌超1%。蔚来跌超8%，小鹏汽车、理想汽车均 跌逾4%。 美国劳工部周三公布的数据显示，截至12月27日当周，首次申领失业 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：金十数据 特朗普借选民对经济不满的浪潮，成功连任入主白宫，承诺降低物价并开创国家的"黄金时代"。 他的政府目前表现如何？尽管经历了一些剧烈起伏，但美国经济在2025年似乎将交出一份稳健的增长答 卷——经济学家预计这一趋势将在2026年延续。 数据显示，得益于韧性十足的消费者和企业投资，美国经济在第三季度以两年来最快的速度扩张。 然而，亮眼的整体数据掩盖了一些不那么乐观的细节。就业增长乏力且仅集中在少数几个行业，而高企 的物价仍是一大隐忧，延续了困扰其前任乔·拜登的负担能力危机。 劳动力市场 在关税引发的动荡、外国游客减少以及人工智能在职场兴起的多重冲击下，美国求职者度过了艰难的一 年。11月失业率升至4.6%——2025年内上升了0.5个百分点——创下自2021年以来的最高水平。 招聘活动整体不温不火，且就业增长绝大部分集中在医疗保健和社会援助领域：若剔除该板块，今年就 业人数实际上不增反降。制造业已连续七个月流失岗位。 在职人员的工资涨幅有所降温。最新数据显示，包括平均时薪和就业成本指数在内的指标正以2021年以 来最慢的速度增 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes indicate that inflation remains above target, and there are rising risks in the labor market [1] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending December 27 were reported at 199,000, lower than the expected 220,000, marking a new low since November 29 [1] - Ethereum has shown the strongest net capital inflow among public chains since 2025, with approximately $4.2 billion, while several chains experienced significant outflows [1] Group 2 - Vitalik Buterin emphasizes the importance of technological diffusion and decentralization strategies to prevent excessive concentration of power in modern society [2] - Bitwise has submitted applications for 11 cryptocurrency ETFs to the SEC, with a strategy of investing 60% of assets directly in the underlying cryptocurrencies and 40% in ETPs related to those cryptocurrencies [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's December monetary policy meeting minutes reveal significant internal disagreements regarding the decision to lower interest rates and future monetary policy expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - On December 10, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to between 3.50% and 3.75%, with a vote of 9 in favor and 3 against, marking the highest number of dissenting votes since 2019 [1]. - Some officials expressed that the decision to ease monetary policy was a delicate balance due to various economic risks, indicating that they could have supported maintaining the current rate [2]. Group 2: Diverging Opinions - There is a growing divide among policymakers regarding whether inflation or unemployment poses a greater risk to the U.S. economy, leading to a more intense "hawk-dove" debate [2]. - Many officials believe that further rate cuts are appropriate if inflation decreases as expected, while others suggest maintaining rates for a period to assess the delayed impacts of recent monetary policy on the labor market and economic activity [2]. Group 3: Market Implications - The anticipated rate cuts are seen as beneficial for U.S. equities, particularly for small and mid-cap companies, with expectations of a continued market uptrend until 2026 [2]. - The potential for further rate cuts may weaken the U.S. dollar, which could favor emerging market stocks and local bonds [3]. Group 4: Short-Term Treasury Purchases - The Federal Reserve has initiated a "mini QE" through a short-term Treasury bond purchase program, with plans to buy approximately $220 billion in short-term Treasury bills over the next 12 months [4][5]. - As of December, the Fed had already purchased about $38 billion in short-term Treasury bills and plans to conduct two more purchasing operations in January [5]. Group 5: Reserve Management - The purchases are intended for reserve management and are not considered traditional QE, with the likelihood of true QE being low unless the U.S. faces a recession or systemic financial risks [6].