Group 1 - Silver market showed a rebound on Monday morning, with a focus on long positions due to the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields, which increased from a five-month low of 3.994% to 4.06%, marking a rise of approximately 1.12% [1] - The upcoming retail sales report is expected to be a key indicator that will impact consumer demand and the yield curve, especially ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting [3] - The dollar index experienced a slight increase of 0.08% to 97.60, but remains near a one-and-a-half-month low, with a weekly decline of 0.12% [3] Group 2 - The geopolitical tensions are rising, particularly with U.S. President Trump's reaffirmation of sanctions against Russia, which may further strain transatlantic relations [3] - The Ukrainian drone forces have targeted a major Russian refinery, which could impact oil production and prices, as the refinery has an annual output of 20 million tons [4] - Gold is seen as a safe haven amid uncertainty, with expectations that if the Federal Reserve signals a dovish stance, gold prices could easily surpass the $3,700 mark, aiming for a mid-term target of $3,900 set by UBS [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the inflation in the US in September met market expectations, clearing the last obstacle for the Fed to restart the interest - rate cut process in September. The expectation of Fed's interest - rate cut has pushed up the US stock market, which has partially weakened the safe - haven demand for gold. However, the expectation of improved industrial demand brought by the Fed's interest - rate cut has led to the upward movement of precious metals. Gold has started a new upward trend, and this trend may continue until the spring and summer of 2026. Investors are advised to maintain a long - bias trading strategy, and short - hedgers can appropriately reduce their hedging ratios. Silver, with its strong industrial attributes, will also rise following the gold price and may even outperform gold in terms of gains due to its high volatility [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: London gold is trading strongly above $3600 per ounce, and London silver has broken through the $42 per ounce mark. The gold price had a sideways shock from late April to August to digest the high - valuation pressure. With the Fed's interest - rate cut, the gold price broke through the resistance in early September and started a new upward trend [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 837.07, up 0.45%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 10,066, up 2.41%; Gold T + D closed at 830.30, up 0.51%; Silver T + D closed at 10,039, up 2.73% [5]. - **Medium - term Market**: From late April to early August, London gold fluctuated widely between $3100 - $3500 per ounce to digest the high - valuation pressure. Since August, the US employment and inflation situation has supported the Fed to restart the interest - rate cut process. Geopolitical risks also provide safe - haven demand for gold. From late August to early September, various factors jointly pushed the gold price to break through the $3500 per ounce mark, starting a new upward trend that may last until the spring and summer of 2026 [5]. 3.2 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - **US Economic Data**: In August, the US consumer price had the largest increase in seven months, mainly due to rising housing and food costs. However, the number of initial jobless claims surged last week, and the Fed is still expected to cut interest rates next Wednesday. The CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year in August, both being the largest increases since January. The core CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month and 3.1% year - on - year in August, consistent with the July increase. The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending September 6 increased by 27,000, reaching 263,000 after seasonal adjustment, the highest since October 2021 [17]. - **European Central Bank**: The ECB maintained interest rates as expected and was optimistic about growth and inflation, which curbed the market's expectation of further borrowing - cost cuts. ECB President Lagarde said that economic risks were "more balanced" than in June, but the inflation outlook was still more uncertain than usual. The ECB currently expects the inflation rate to be 1.9% in 2027, lower than the 2.0% forecast in June, and the core inflation rate to be 1.8%, also lower than the 2% target [17]. - **Trade - related News**: The US will pressure the G7 to raise tariffs on India and China for buying Russian oil. The US Commerce Secretary said that the US could reach a trade agreement with India if India stops buying Russian oil [18]. - **US Treasury Budget**: In August, the US budget deficit decreased by $35 billion or 9% year - on - year to $345 billion, as Trump's tariffs boosted net tariff revenues by about $22.5 billion. The cumulative deficit for the fiscal year as of August increased by $76 billion or 4% to $1.973 trillion, the third - highest in history [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The weak performance of the US employment data in August, the core CPI annual rate of consumer - end inflation meeting expectations and the previous value, more Fed officials supporting interest rate cuts, and Trump's continuous pressure or potential replacement of Fed officials have led the market to expect that the Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December. Geopolitical risks such as the Russia - related conflicts are difficult to resolve, and central banks of many countries around the world are continuously buying gold, which may make precious metal prices prone to rise and difficult to fall [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: - Shanghai gold futures active contract: Closing price on 2025 - 09 - 12 was 834.22 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 170,217.00 and an open interest of 109,267.00. The inventory was 52,950.00 (in ten - gram units) [1] - Spot Shanghai gold T + D: Closing price was 830.34 yuan/gram, trading volume was 36,270.00, and open interest was 206,336.00 [1] - COMEX gold futures active contract: Closing price was 3,680.70 dollars/ounce, trading volume was 147,566.00, and open interest was 385,713.00. The inventory was 38,914,490.82 (in troy ounces) [1] - London gold spot: Closing price was 3,546.30 dollars/ounce [1] - SPDR gold ETF holding: 974.80 tons, with a change of - 3.15 tons [1] - iShare gold ETF holding: 457.86 tons [1] - **Silver**: - Shanghai silver futures active contract: Closing price on 2025 - 09 - 12 was 10,035.00 yuan/ten - gram, trading volume was 301,985.00, and open interest was 219,328.00. The inventory was 1,240,187.00 (in ten - gram units) [1] - Spot Shanghai silver T + D: Closing price was 9,772.00 yuan/ten - gram, trading volume was 304,080.00, and open interest was - 78,720.00 [1] - COMEX silver futures active contract: Closing price was 41.32 dollars/ounce, trading volume was 66,072.00, and open interest was 133,690.00. The inventory was 527,423,229.52 (in troy ounces) [1] - London silver spot: Closing price was 42.26 dollars/ounce [1] - E - iShare silver ETF holding: 15,230.57 tons [1] - Canada PSLV silver ETF holding: 6,129.64 tons [1] 2. Price Ratios and Spreads - **Gold**: - Spread between near - month and far - month contracts: For Shanghai gold, it was 1.72; for COMEX gold, it was 2.50 [1] - Basis (spot - futures): For Shanghai gold, it was - 3.88; for COMEX gold, it was 14.25 [1] - **Silver**: - Spread between near - month and far - month contracts: For Shanghai silver, it was - 75.00; for COMEX silver, it was - 0.02 [1] - Basis (spot - futures): For Shanghai silver, it was - 15.00; for COMEX silver, it was - 0.35 [1] 3. Other Market Data - **Commodities**: - INE crude oil: Closing price was 475.30 yuan/barrel [1] - ICE Brent crude oil: Closing price was 66.31 dollars/barrel [1] - NYMEX crude oil: Closing price was 62.24 dollars/barrel [1] - Shanghai copper futures: Closing price was 81,060.00 yuan/ton [1] - LME copper spot: Closing price was 10,067.50 dollars/ton [1] - Shanghai rebar: Closing price was 3,127.00 yuan/ton [1] - Dalian iron ore: Closing price was 799.50 yuan/ton [1] - **Interest Rates**: - SHIBOR: 1.37% and 1.66% [1] - US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield: 4.0100% [1] - US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield: 1.7900% [1] - 10 - year Treasury break - even inflation: 2.3600% [1] - **Exchange Rates**: - US dollar index: 97.5299 [1] - US dollar - RMB central parity rate: 7.1019 [1] - Euro - RMB central parity rate: 8.3326 [1] - **Stock Indices**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 3,875.3094 [1] - S&P 500: 6,584.2900 [1] - UK FTSE 100: 9,283.2900 [1] - France CAC40: 7,825.2400 [1] - Germany DAX: 23,770.3300 [1] - Nikkei 225: 44,768.1200 [1] - South Korea Composite Index: 3,344.2000 [1] 4. Important Information - The US government is facing a "shutdown" crisis again because the Democrats demand to add the subsidy extension of the Affordable Care Act to the government appropriation bill. If the subsidy expires, the medical insurance premiums of about 22.4 million Americans will rise significantly, causing political backlash [1] - It is the "central bank super - week", and major central banks such as the Fed, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan will announce their interest rate decisions [1] 5. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to mainly set up long positions when the price drops. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3,650 - 3,750 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 800 - 810 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 840 - 850 yuan/gram. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 38 - 39 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 41 - 43 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 9,000 - 9,500 yuan/ten - gram and the resistance level around 10,000 - 10,500 yuan/ten - gram [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weak performance of the US employment data in August, the core CPI annual rate of consumer - end inflation meeting expectations and the previous value, more Fed officials supporting interest rate cuts, and Trump's continuous pressure or potential replacement of Fed officials have led the market to expect that the Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points consecutively in September, October, and December. Combined with geopolitical risks such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data Summary **Gold** - Shanghai Gold: The closing price was 4.25 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 36,270 and a position of 206,336. The price difference between the near - month and far - month contracts was 1.72, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 3.88 [1]. - International Gold: The closing price of the COMEX active futures contract was 3,680.70, with a trading volume of 147,566 and a position of 385,713. The London gold spot price was 3,546.30 dollars/ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF held 974.80 tons, and the iShare Gold ETF held 457.86 tons [1]. **Silver** - Shanghai Silver: The closing price was 9,772.00 yuan/ten - grams, with a trading volume of 304,080 and a position of - 78,720. The price difference between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 75.00, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 15.00 [1]. - International Silver: The closing price of the COMEX active futures contract was 41.32, with a trading volume of 66,072 and a position of 133,690. The London silver spot price was 42.26 dollars/ounce. The US iShare - Silver ETF held 15,230.57 tons, and the Canadian PSLV Silver ETF held 6,129.64 tons [1]. Important Information - The US government is facing a "shutdown" crisis again due to the Democrats' demand to include the subsidy extension of the Affordable Care Act in the government appropriation bill. If the subsidy expires, the medical insurance premiums of about 22.4 million Americans will rise significantly [1]. - The "Central Bank Super Week" is coming, and major central banks such as the Fed, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan will announce their interest rate decisions [1]. Trading Strategy - The main strategy is to buy on price dips. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 and the resistance level around 3,650 - 3,750. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 800 - 810 and the resistance level around 840 - 850. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 38 - 39 and the resistance level around 41 - 43. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 9,000 - 9,500 and the resistance level around 10,000 - 10,500 [1].

近日，国际能源与资源市场风云再起。美国总统特朗普率先发声，表示正考虑启动针对俄罗斯的第二阶段经济制裁。随后，美国财政部长贝森特进一步强化 了这一立场，明确表示将与欧洲盟友联手，对任何继续进口俄罗斯石油的国家加征二级关税，这一举措直指俄罗斯经济命脉。从经济规模来看，由27个成员 国组成的欧盟加上美国，其庞大的市场体量确实令任何贸易伙伴都不敢轻视。在这场博弈中，中国和印度作为俄罗斯石油的主要进口国，其能源采购策略直 接影响着国际能源市场的稳定。面对压力，两国并未表现出任何退让迹象，依然保持着稳定的采购节奏，展现出坚定的立场。 9月9日，在东方经济论坛上，俄罗斯负责稀土金属事务的高级官员迪穆哈梅多夫发表重要声明。他表示俄罗斯愿意与美国在稀土金属领域展开互利贸易，前 提是美国解除对俄罗斯基于稀土的高科技产品出口限制。这番表态实际上是为双方合作设定了明确条件。俄罗斯自然资源部公布的数据显示，该国拥有15种 稀土金属，总储量高达2870万吨，其中已开发或准备开发的储量达380万吨。这一表态立即引发国际社会广泛关注，各方都在评估美俄若达成协议可能带来 的影响。 国际舆论对此反应不一。有人认为这是俄罗斯在西方制裁压力下的妥协 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - Gold has surpassed US Treasury bonds to become the most favored asset among global central banks, reflecting a growing recognition of its value as a reserve asset [1][3] - The share of gold in global central bank reserves has exceeded that of US Treasury bonds for the first time since 1996, indicating a significant shift in asset allocation strategies [1] - Over 90% of surveyed central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, marking a 17 percentage point increase from the previous year, the highest since the survey began in 2019 [7] Group 2: Reasons for Central Bank Preference - The decline of the Bretton Woods system and geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have led to a loss of trust in the US dollar, prompting central banks to increase gold purchases [1][5] - The high level of US national debt, which has surpassed $37 trillion, has further eroded confidence in the dollar, with the debt-to-GDP ratio reaching approximately 126.8% [3] - Political polarization in the US has increased uncertainty in policies, leading to a preference for gold as a hedge against potential risks associated with the dollar system [5][7] Group 3: Investment Strategies - For investors who have not yet invested in gold but are optimistic about its future, a gradual accumulation strategy is recommended to mitigate risks associated with high volatility [8] - Investors already holding gold may consider adjusting their positions based on market conditions, particularly around key events such as the Federal Reserve's meetings [8] - Different investment products are available for various risk appetites, including gold stocks, ETFs, and balanced funds, catering to aggressive, moderate, and conservative investors [10][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Volatile [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of gold continued to rise and hit a new high, driven by geopolitical risks and the strengthening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The US inflation rebounded as expected, and the employment market continued to weaken. The divergence between hawks and doves at the upcoming Fed interest rate meeting is expected to increase. After the price of gold reached a record high, the game between bulls and bears intensified, and market volatility increased. Attention should be paid to the short - term correction risk [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The domestic basis (spot - futures) was - 3.88 yuan/gram, with a weekly change rate of - 1.8%. The domestic - foreign futures price difference (domestic - foreign) was - 8.62 yuan/gram, with a weekly change rate of - 56.2%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 22.2% to 52,950 kilograms, while the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.11% to 38,914,491 ounces. The SPDR ETF holding volume decreased by 0.73% to 974.80 tons, and the CFTC gold speculative net long position decreased by 1.4% to 166,417 lots. The US Treasury yield decreased by 1.0% to 4.06%, and the US 10 - year real interest rate decreased by 4.3% to 1.69% [11] 3.2 Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 3.2.1 US Financial Market - The US overnight secured financing rate was 4.41%. Oil prices rose 3.8%, and the US inflation expectation was 2.37%. The US dollar index fell 0.22% to 97.55, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.06%, the S&P 500 index rose 1.59%, and the VIX index dropped to 14.76. The real interest rate dropped to 1.69%, and the gold price rose 1.6% [17][19][21] 3.2.2 Global Financial Markets - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed country stock markets mostly rose, with the S&P 500 rising 1.59%. Developing country stock markets also mostly rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.52%. US Treasury bonds fell slightly, German bonds rose, and the US - Germany spread was 1.35%. The UK Treasury bond yield was 4.67%, and the Japanese bond yield was 1.59%. The euro appreciated 0.14%, the pound sterling appreciated 0.34%, the yen depreciated 0.17%, and the Swiss franc appreciated 0.18%. Non - US currencies mostly appreciated [22][26][28] 3.3 Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The gold speculative net long position slightly decreased to 166,000 lots, and the SPDR Gold ETF holding volume dropped to 974 tons. The RMB showed a volatile trend, and Shanghai gold remained at a discount. Gold and silver prices rose, and the gold - silver ratio dropped to 86.3 [32][35] 3.4 Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: China's August social retail sales and industrial added value; Japan's market closed. Tuesday: US August retail sales and September NAHB housing index. Wednesday: US August new housing starts and building permits; Bank of Canada interest rate meeting decision. Thursday: Fed and Bank of England September interest rate meetings. Friday: Bank of Japan September interest rate meeting [36]

Group 1: Market Dynamics - A sustained move under the 52-week moving average indicates the presence of sellers, potentially driving prices toward $61.12 and $60.26, which could trigger further downside momentum [1] - Overcoming the 52-week moving average suggests the return of buyers, with initial resistance at $64.56 and $65.41, followed by a swing top at $66.03, which could lead to a surge towards $68.70 [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - Recent price increases in crude oil were driven by a Ukrainian drone attack that suspended crude loadings at a major Russian port, raising concerns about potential reductions in Russian crude exports [3] - Despite the temporary lift from geopolitical events, Brent and WTI benchmarks fell sharply, indicating market skepticism towards price rallies without substantial supply disruptions [4] Group 3: Economic Indicators - U.S. economic indicators have raised concerns about demand prospects, with revised jobs data showing 911,000 fewer jobs created than previously estimated, alongside a 0.4% increase in the Consumer Price Index, the largest since January [5] - The combination of slower job growth and persistent inflation raises doubts about the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates soon, which may stall economic activity and reduce energy consumption [6]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has surged past a 40-year historical high, reaching $3,674.27 per ounce, surpassing the inflation-adjusted record of $3,590 from 1980 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have increased approximately 5% in September and nearly 40% since the beginning of the year [2]. - The recent spike in gold prices is attributed to rising unemployment claims in the U.S., which reached 263,000, a three-year high, alongside persistent core inflation and economic uncertainty [3]. - Despite the international market's enthusiasm, the domestic retail market and gold funds experienced a slight pullback on September 13 [3][4]. Group 2: Retail Pricing Strategies - Major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook have set gold jewelry prices at 1,078 yuan per gram, showing a slowdown in momentum compared to previous surges [4]. - Gold funds, such as Huaan Gold and Bosera Gold, reported minor declines of around 0.36%, with prices around 758 yuan and 748 yuan respectively [5][6]. - Different pricing strategies among retailers are notable, with some stores like Baoqing Silver Tower offering gold at 1,036 yuan per gram, significantly lower than mainstream prices [8]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The current gold price increase is fundamentally different from the speculative frenzy of the 1980s, reflecting deeper uncertainties in the global economy and geopolitical landscape [10][11]. - The investment environment has become more complex, with lower barriers to entry for gold investments through various ETF products, leading to a significant increase in institutional buying [14]. - Central banks have become major buyers of gold, diversifying their foreign reserves and reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar, which has bolstered gold's position as a reserve asset [15][16]. Group 4: Future Projections - Analysts from Goldman Sachs predict that gold prices could reach $3,700 by the end of 2025 and potentially exceed $4,000 by mid-2026 [17]. - A more aggressive scenario suggests that if there is a large outflow from dollar assets, gold prices could soar to between $4,500 and $5,000 [18]. - The ongoing global economic uncertainties, geopolitical risks, and continued central bank purchases are expected to support gold prices in the long term [22].

Group 1: Currency and Economic Indicators - The US dollar index showed no clear trend this week, experiencing fluctuations influenced by US employment and inflation data, closing at 97.63 [1] - US employment performance was weaker than expected, and the PPI unexpectedly declined, despite the CPI reaching a new high, leading to increased market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [1] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut next week, with focus on the updated dot plot which will determine the future trajectory of gold prices [1] Group 2: Gold Market - Gold prices achieved a historical high of approximately $3674 per ounce, marking a significant increase of nearly 40% this year, exceeding $1000 in value [1] - Following the new historical high, gold prices experienced a rapid decline, indicating a potential for a correction of over $100 due to a lack of new bullish support [3] - The short-term outlook for gold appears weak, with indications of a possible pullback after a strong performance since late August [3] Group 3: Oil Market - Oil prices initially rebounded to around $64 but later retreated, indicating a weak overall trend with a potential for further declines, particularly towards the $60 support level [5] - Geopolitical tensions, including Israeli airstrikes and EU sanctions against Russia, have contributed to fluctuations in oil prices, with the market showing signs of weakness [3][5] - The sentiment for WTI crude oil is at a historical low according to the CFTC report, reflecting bearish market conditions [3]