Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the transportation industry [2] Core Insights - The shipping sector remains at a high level of prosperity, with oil tanker market conditions particularly strong due to geopolitical tensions and sanctions impacting oil supply [6][17] - The infrastructure sector is advised to focus on individual stocks that provide stable dividend assets, with a recommendation for Wanhua Express [18] - The aviation industry shows an upward trend in fundamentals for 2026, with significant increases in passenger volume and ticket prices during the Spring Festival [21][34] - The express delivery sector is expected to see a return to mid-to-high single-digit growth rates in 2026, with a focus on valuation and competitive positioning [20][21] Shipping Sector Summary - Oil tanker market conditions are buoyed by geopolitical risks, with VLCC rates at $124,000/day, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [13][55] - The dry bulk market has seen fluctuations, with the BDI index at 1923 points, down 10.5% week-on-week [53] - Recommendations include focusing on oil tanker and dry bulk stocks such as COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [6][17] Infrastructure Sector Summary - Weekly data shows significant growth in freight traffic, with road truck traffic at 56.83 million vehicles, a 506.1% year-on-year increase [18][59] - Port throughput reached 281.597 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 53.3% [18][59] - The report suggests focusing on stable cash flow assets in the port sector, highlighting their current undervaluation [18] Aviation Sector Summary - During the Spring Festival, passenger traffic increased by 8.3% year-on-year, with domestic ticket prices rising by 6.1% [21][34] - The report anticipates that 2026 will be a year of profit elasticity for the aviation industry due to improved supply-demand dynamics and lower fuel prices [34] - The report emphasizes monitoring Spring Festival data and its impact on market sentiment [34] Express Delivery Sector Summary - The express delivery industry saw a 13.6% year-on-year growth in business volume for 2025, with a slowdown expected in 2026 [20][21] - The report highlights the competitive landscape and the potential for valuation recovery in the sector [20] - Recommended stocks include SF Express, ZTO Express, and YTO Express [21]

国泰君安期货·原油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 赵旭意 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020751 日期：2026年2月8日 GuotaiJunanFuturesallrightsreserved,pleasedonotreprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 宏观 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | | 原油：地缘风险仍未解除， | 利率、贵金属与油价走势比较 | OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 欧美炼厂开工率 | 美欧各类油品库存 | 基差 | | 轻仓过节 | 海外服务业数据 | 非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 中国炼厂开工率 | 亚太各类油品库存 | 月差 | | | 中国信用数据 | 美国页岩油产量 | | | 内外盘原油价差 | | | | | | | 净持仓变化 | SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures 2 观点综述 01 本周原油观点：地缘风险仍未解除，轻仓 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The copper market is experiencing a decrease in prices, with LME copper down 1.65% to $12,855.0 per ton and Shanghai copper down 3.45% to ¥100,100 per ton. Supply-side indicators show an increase in copper inventory and a decrease in processing fees, while demand remains stable due to ongoing orders from major clients [1][14] - The aluminum market has seen LME aluminum prices drop by 3.49% to $3,026.00 per ton, with domestic aluminum rod inventory increasing. The overall operating rate for aluminum processing has decreased, indicating a mixed demand scenario [2][15] - Gold prices have risen by 6.57% to $4,988.6 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and changes in U.S. Treasury yields. The market is showing strong volatility, influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts and inflation concerns [3][16] - The rare earth sector is witnessing price increases, particularly in praseodymium and neodymium, with exports showing signs of recovery. The report suggests a positive outlook for demand and pricing in this sector [4][35] - Tungsten prices have increased significantly, supported by tight supply conditions and strategic stockpiling initiatives in the U.S. The report indicates a bullish outlook for tungsten prices [4][38] - Lithium prices have decreased, with carbonate lithium averaging ¥148,000 per ton, reflecting a decline in production and market adjustments. The report notes a potential turning point in the lithium market [4][52] - Cobalt prices have decreased by 5.6% to ¥420,000 per ton, with market conditions remaining stable but facing supply concerns. The report anticipates upward pressure on prices in the long term due to structural shortages [5][53] Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price decreased by 1.65% to $12,855.0 per ton, with an increase in domestic inventory and a decrease in processing fees. The operating rate for copper processing is expected to decline as the industry approaches the Chinese New Year [1][14] Aluminum - LME aluminum price fell by 3.49% to $3,026.00 per ton, with an increase in aluminum rod inventory. The overall operating rate for aluminum processing decreased, indicating a mixed demand scenario [2][15] Precious Metals - Gold price increased by 6.57% to $4,988.6 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical risks and changes in U.S. Treasury yields. The market is experiencing strong volatility [3][16] Rare Earths - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium increased, with exports showing signs of recovery. The report suggests a positive outlook for demand and pricing in this sector [4][35] Tungsten - Tungsten prices increased significantly, supported by tight supply conditions and strategic stockpiling initiatives in the U.S. The report indicates a bullish outlook for tungsten prices [4][38] Lithium - Lithium prices decreased, with carbonate lithium averaging ¥148,000 per ton. The report notes a potential turning point in the lithium market [4][52] Cobalt - Cobalt prices decreased by 5.6% to ¥420,000 per ton, with market conditions remaining stable but facing supply concerns. The report anticipates upward pressure on prices in the long term [5][53]

Core Viewpoint - The forced sale of the Chinese-acquired UK chip company Future Technology Devices International Limited (FTDI) due to national security concerns has significant implications for Chinese enterprises' overseas mergers and acquisitions, prompting a reevaluation of geopolitical risks in such transactions [1][7]. Group 1: Background of FTDI and Acquisition - FTDI, established in March 1992 and based in Glasgow, is a key player in the global USB bridge chip design market, holding nearly 20% market share [2]. - In early 2021, a Chinese consortium acquired approximately 80.2% of FTDI through Dongguan Feite Holdings, with a total transaction value of about $414 million, funded by domestic and overseas financing [2][3]. - The acquisition was part of a competitive bidding process involving multiple international and Chinese companies, with the Chinese consortium ultimately winning [3]. Group 2: Regulatory Developments - The UK government initiated a national security review of the FTDI acquisition in November 2022, leading to a decision in November 2023 that mandated the Chinese consortium to divest its stake due to potential national security risks [3][6]. - The UK High Court upheld the forced sale decision in February 2025, reinforcing the requirement for the Chinese consortium to sell its shares [3]. Group 3: Financial Implications for Chinese Companies - Chinese listed companies, including Delian Technology and Huapengfei, have disclosed potential significant financial impacts due to the forced sale, with Delian estimating a loss exceeding 200 million RMB and Huapengfei projecting a loss over 19 million RMB [5]. - The uncertainty surrounding the final outcomes of the divestiture and its financial implications remains a concern for these companies [5]. Group 4: Broader Industry Impact - The FTDI case highlights the increasing scrutiny of Chinese investments in foreign companies, with geopolitical factors now playing a more prominent role in merger and acquisition decisions [7]. - The Chinese consortium is actively seeking additional time to manage the divestiture process and minimize losses, while facing challenges in finding buyers due to the designation of "national security risk" [6][7].

来源：汇金网 2月2日-2月6日当周，国际原油市场经历了剧烈震荡，多空力量在高位展开了极为激烈的博弈。地缘政治紧张局势的反复与美国经济数据的疲软交织在一 起，令交易员在"供应风险"与"需求担忧"之间艰难抉择。尽管周线录得下跌，终结了此前的六周连涨，但周五的反弹与周K线呈现的典型技术形态，预示着 下一阶段的行情可能面临方向性的抉择。 本周走势回顾：一场多空力量的高位肉搏 本周，两大国际基准原油价格走出了"过山车"般的行情，波动率显著放大。 美国WTI原油期货价格本周开盘即遭遇重挫，周一暴跌超过5%，创下近期最大单日跌幅。然而，跌势并未持续，周二和周三油价迅速反弹，几乎收复了周 初的全部失地。这种强势未能延续至周四，油价再度下跌超过2%。周五，市场情绪再次逆转，油价在盘中下跌后顽强收高。最终，WTI原油周线下跌 3.14%，终结了自去年年底以来的连续上涨势头。 布伦特原油期货的走势与WTI基本同步。周一同样大幅下挫近5%，随后在周二、周三分别反弹2.3%和1.1%。周四转跌后，周五跟随WTI一同收涨。 更为关键的是，从技术形态上看，WTI原油的周K线收出了一根典型的 "长腿十字星" 。这根K线具有极小的实体（几乎 ...

这还不是最魔幻的。 当你觉得金价全面暴涨时，转头去看银行的实物投资金条，工行的"如意金"报价 1114.57元/克，建行"建行金"1136.8元/克。 金店首饰和银行金条，每克价差竟然高达450元以上！ 这金 价，到底在玩什么"双面游戏"？ 我们普通人是该跟风"追涨"，还是该冷静"看戏"？ 2026年2月5日，走进任何一家大商场的金店柜台，你都会感受到一种火热又焦灼的气氛。 周大福的足 金首饰价格牌标着1566元/克，比前一天直接涨了71元。 老凤祥的牌子更"亮眼"，1576元/克。 周生生是 1570元/克。 六福、金至尊等品牌也全部跟涨，单日涨幅普遍超过4.7%。 如果你昨晚睡前看到金价暴跌，还在偷偷高兴想着"抄底"，那今早（2月5日）的金店报价可能会让你瞬 间清醒。 仅仅一夜之间，周大福、老凤祥这些头部品牌的足金999价格，每克跳涨了70多元。 周生生的 报价直接摸到了1570元/克。 前一天还在为每克1490多元纠结要不要下手，一转眼，买10克首饰就要多 掏七百多块。 与金店人声鼎沸的"零售价"形成鲜明对比的，是银行里相对"冷静"的投资金条价格。 中国银行的自有 品牌"中银金"标价1143.65元/克 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Oil price volatility has increased this week, and the rebound height may be limited without clear signals of production cuts or a significant escalation of geopolitical situations [4] - PX supply and demand are expected to ease, and PTA prices are expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term due to weak downstream demand [4] - Ethylene glycol is in a situation of supply surplus, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [5] - Pure benzene and styrene are generally cautiously bullish, but there is a risk of correction [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - This week, oil prices fluctuated sharply due to geopolitical and Fed policy uncertainties. Tensions in the Middle East, concerns about potential supply disruptions, a reduction in US crude oil production due to force majeure, a decrease in US crude oil inventories, and a decline in the US dollar index supported oil prices [4] - OPEC+ announced a suspension of the production increase plan for the first three months of 2026 at the end of 2025, but the long - term production increase trend remains unchanged. Non - OPEC+ producers are expected to contribute an output increase of 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026 [4] PX & PTA - Domestic PX load remained unchanged, and processing fees fell to around $300/ton. With the end of some device maintenance, PX supply and demand are expected to ease, and attention should be paid to the subsequent terminal restocking [4][10] - This week, PTA devices remained unchanged, factory inventories started to accumulate, and downstream operations weakened significantly. There is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation in February. The polyester industry's operating rate will decline rapidly, and the overall maintenance intensity exceeds that of the same period last year [4] - The current spot price of PTA is 5,068 yuan/ton, with a weekly average capacity utilization rate of 76.29%. Factory - in inventory days increased to 3.72 days. PTA processing fees are 422 yuan/ton. As future supply recovers and downstream demand weakens, PTA prices are expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term [16] MEG - At the beginning of the month, there are plans for large Saudi contract ships to enter the warehouse, and the near - term arrivals are still relatively high. The arrivals will gradually decrease from mid - February [5] - The seasonal inventory accumulation from January to February is at a high level since 2021, and the future expectation is difficult to reverse. Polyester demand is weak, the supply - demand of ethylene glycol is imbalanced, and device losses are expanding [5] - The current price of ethylene glycol is around 3,600 yuan/ton, which has a certain support. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to overseas situations [5] BZ & EB - The operating rate of pure benzene has increased, and there are expectations of restarting multiple domestic related devices, so the overall supply is expected to rise. This week, the pure benzene port inventory remained flat but is still at a high level [5][38] - It is expected that during the Spring Festival, the load reduction of styrene will be limited under high profits, while other varieties with weak profits may have obvious load reductions. In February, the overall demand will remain stable month - on - month, and it is expected to gradually enter a seasonal inventory accumulation pattern [5] - The overall operating rate of downstream 3S is not high, showing an inventory reduction trend. With the subsequent resumption of some devices and the high inventory of pure benzene, there is a risk of correction. Pure benzene and styrene are generally cautiously bullish [5] Polyester Industry - The weekly average capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry is 79.53%, a decrease of 2.34 percentage points from last week. As the Spring Festival approaches, multiple devices are under maintenance, and the domestic polyester industry output continues to decline significantly [30] - The operating rate of sample enterprises in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving industry is 22.47%, a decrease of 19.94% from the previous data. The average number of terminal weaving order days is 6.35 days, a decrease of 0.35 days from last week. The average level of terminal weaving finished product inventory is 26.08 days, a decrease of 2.72 days from last week [30]

Group 1 - International gold prices rebounded, reaching $4832.08 per ounce with a daily increase of 1.16% and a year-to-date rise of 11.91% [1] - Silver prices experienced significant volatility, initially dropping to $64.035 per ounce, a new low for 2026, before rebounding to $71.967 per ounce, marking a daily increase of 1.50% and a year-to-date increase of 0.54% [1] - The recent "V-shaped" rebound in precious metal prices is attributed to multiple factors, including rising geopolitical risks, easing expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies, and technical short-covering by investors [1] Group 2 - Silver's one-month implied volatility has surpassed 100%, marking the most extreme level since 1980, driven by speculative trading rather than industrial demand [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported that silver futures have reached an implied volatility of 117.40%, with extreme price movements observed, including daily fluctuations exceeding 30% [4] - Market analysts predict that despite current volatility, structural support for precious metals remains, with forecasts suggesting an average gold price of $6000 per ounce and silver at approximately $105 per ounce for the year [4]

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - On February 6, the closing price of Shanghai gold futures was 1090.12 yuan per gram, reflecting a decrease of 2.02% with a trading volume of 494,742 lots and an open interest of 163,840 lots [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 1094.00 yuan per gram, indicating a premium of 3.88 yuan per gram over the futures price [1] - The gold market is currently in a complex phase where long-term narratives remain unchanged, but short-term valuations are under pressure due to the incorporation of optimistic expectations [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In January, the number of layoffs in the U.S. surged to 108,400, with only about 5,300 new job openings, marking the worst performance for the same period in 17 years [2] - Job vacancies in December dropped significantly to 6.54 million, the lowest since 2020 [2] - Initial jobless claims unexpectedly increased by 22,000 to 231,000 [2] Group 3: Institutional Insights - Baocun Futures noted that while gold and silver prices fell together, they exhibited divergent performance, with gold showing short-term resilience [3] - The long-term driving factors for gold, such as concerns over the U.S. dollar credit system and geopolitical risks, remain strong [3] - The gold-silver ratio rebounded while precious metals declined, aligning with historical patterns [3]

长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 CCMN现货市场评述：今日长江现货成交价格23130-23170元/吨，跌190元，贴水170-贴水130，涨30 元；广东现货23105-23155元/吨，跌230元，贴水160-贴水110，涨25元；上海地区23120-23160元/吨， 跌190元，贴水180-贴水140，涨30元。 宏观层面，凯文·沃什的提名短期内对美元构成"利好"，其暂时缓解了市场对美联储独立性极端担忧， 避免了信任危机瞬间爆发。他丰富的个人经验与出色的沟通能力，有助于稳定市场短期预期。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 2月6日亚市时段，美元指数在97.90附近窄幅震荡，近期总体延续自四年低点95.57的反弹态势。随着紧 张局势升级，美国建议公民撤离伊朗，关键外交谈判面临严重分歧与军事威胁。地缘危机"紧急升级信 号"引发避险买盘，周五亚欧时段，现货黄金震荡上行，带动有色金属板块情绪部分修复，限制铝价跌 幅。外交博弈在军事压力不断加剧的背景下展开，美国持续在海湾地区集结兵力，特朗普总统近期措辞 强硬，威胁若德黑兰不满足美国一系列要求，将对其发动军事打击。美国 ...