Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in international gold prices, which have consistently broken through key thresholds, reaching historical highs, and the resulting impact on the futures and options markets [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - International gold prices have shown strong performance, recently surpassing $3,400 and $3,500 per ounce, with COMEX gold futures reported at $3,440 per ounce, marking a 0.43% increase [1]. - Spot gold prices reached a high of $3,500.12 per ounce, setting a new historical record [1]. Group 2: Options Market Activity - The surge in gold prices has triggered significant activity in the options market, particularly a phenomenon known as "doomsday wheel," which occurs in the days leading up to options expiration [3]. - Several deep out-of-the-money call options for gold futures saw dramatic price increases, with some contracts experiencing gains of up to 9,800% [3]. Group 3: Futures Market Dynamics - Gold futures have attracted substantial capital inflow, with total funds in gold futures reaching approximately 980.4 billion yuan, surpassing major stock index futures [8]. - The total open interest in gold futures has increased significantly, reaching a historical high of 453,000 contracts, up from 392,000 contracts earlier in the month [9]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Risks - Despite the bullish sentiment towards gold, some institutions are cautioning about potential short-term adjustments due to the rapid price increases and changing market conditions [10]. - The increase in market volatility has led trading firms to raise margin requirements and price limits for gold futures to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations [9].

华侨银行策略师克里斯托弗 - 王(Christopher Wong)指出，特朗普解雇鲍威尔的潜在举动，将带来严重的市场冲击。这不仅会破坏央行独立性这一重要原则， 还可能导致美国货币政策政治化，从而引发市场的不安。一旦美联储的信誉受到质疑，美元的信心基础将被动摇，资金会加速流向黄金等避险资产。 High Ridge Futures 金属交易总监 David Meger 则认为，在关税紧张局势持续升温的背景下，黄金作为避风港的属性愈发凸显。尽管市场偶尔会出现回调和获 利了结的情况，但从长期来看，黄金价格仍有望维持横盘到走高的趋势。 Kitco Metals 的高级分析师 Jim Wyckoff 却持有不同观点。他表示，当前黄金价格每日的大幅波动，是这轮成熟牛市接近尾声的早期信号。不过，市场顶部 的到来，更多是时间上的临近，而非单纯取决于价格的走势。各方观点不一，也让黄金市场的未来走向变得更加扑朔迷离，投资者在这样复杂的市场环境 中，也将面临前所未有的挑战与机遇。 这一轮黄金市场的剧烈波动，背后是多重因素的交织作用。新一轮美元疲软的态势持续发酵，特朗普对美联储的持续批评加剧了市场的不确定性，而久拖未 决的贸易战更是 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for gold is "Bearish" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - London gold soared 6.6% to $3,237 per ounce. The 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.49%, inflation expectations dropped to 2.23%, real interest rates rose to 2.26%, the US dollar index tumbled 2.84% to 100, the S&P 500 index rebounded 5.7%, the RMB rose slightly, and the Shanghai gold shifted from a premium to a discount [2] - The sharp rise in gold was driven by the inflow of funds due to the triple slump in the US stock, bond, and exchange markets. The erratic US tariff policy and the escalating retaliatory tariffs between the US and China increased market risk aversion, which was fundamentally beneficial to gold. The extreme tariff policy also led to capital outflows from the US, weakening the US dollar and benefiting gold [2] - US economic data showed a decline in inflation pressure in March, but food prices continued to rise, and future tariffs would cause further price increases. The University of Michigan consumer confidence index in April decreased, while the one-year inflation expectation climbed [2] - There is a risk of overheating in the short-term market sentiment. The positions and trading volume of Shanghai gold have increased significantly, and there was profit-taking by long positions overseas last week. The short-term postponement of additional tariffs and exemptions for certain commodities by the US reduced the possibility of conflict escalation, and the Fed's potential market intervention also eased the selling pressure [3] - After the strong rise of gold, long positions have become crowded in the short term. Tariff developments will increase market volatility, and attention should be paid to the risk of a correction [4] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Gold High-Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The internal basis (spot - futures) was 0.45 yuan/gram, with a weekly change of 0.52 yuan and a change rate of -742.9%. The internal - external futures price difference was -9.19 yuan/gram, with a weekly change of -11.28 yuan and a change rate of -539.0% [11] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 3 kilograms to 15,678 kilograms, while the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 495,732 ounces to 44,575,964 ounces [11] - The SPDR ETF holding volume rose by 20.35 tons to 953.15 tons, and the CFTC gold speculative net long positions decreased by 38,088 hands to 138,465 hands [11] - The US Treasury yield increased by 0.47 percentage points to 4.48%, and the US dollar index decreased by 3.15 points to 99.77 [11] - The SOFR was 4.37%, with a weekly decrease of 0.02 percentage points. The US 10-year breakeven inflation rate dropped by 0.0431 percentage points to 2.2336% [11] - The S&P 500 index increased by 289 points to 5,363, and the VIX volatility index decreased by 7.8 points to 37.6 [11] - The gold cross - market arbitrage trading volume decreased by 0.1 to 7.2, and the US 10-year real interest rate increased by 0.58 percentage points to 2.26% [11] 2. Financial Market Related Data Tracking 2.1 US Financial Market - The US overnight secured financing rate was 4.37%. Oil prices dropped 3.1%, and US inflation expectations fell to 2.23% [17] - The US dollar index tumbled 2.8% to 100, and the US Treasury yield was 4.49%. The S&P 500 index rebounded 5.7%, and the VIX index dropped to 37.56 [19] 2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed country stock markets declined, while the S&P 500 index rebounded 5.7%. Developing country stock markets also fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 3.11% [22] - Real interest rates rose to 2.25%, and gold prices soared 6.6%. The spot commodity index closed higher, and the US dollar index tumbled [23] - The euro rose 3.53%, the British pound rose 1.53%, the Japanese yen rose 2.31%, and the Swiss franc rose 5.34% [26] - US and German bond yields increased, and the US - German yield spread widened to 1.92%. The British government bond yield was 4.75%, and the Japanese government bond yield was 1.32% [27] - The US dollar index dropped 2.84% to 100, and most non - US currencies appreciated [28] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - Gold speculative net long positions decreased to 138,000 hands, and the SPDR Gold ETF holding volume increased to 953 tons [31] - The RMB depreciated slightly, and the internal - external price difference fluctuated narrowly. Gold and silver prices soared, and the gold - silver ratio dropped to 100 [35] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: China's March foreign trade and financial data; US March New York Fed inflation expectations [36] - Tuesday: Germany and Eurozone April ZEW economic sentiment index; US April New York Fed manufacturing index and March import price index [36] - Wednesday: China's Q1 GDP, March retail sales, and industrial added - value data; US March retail sales and April NAHB housing index [36] - Thursday: ECB interest rate meeting; US March new housing starts, building permits, and initial jobless claims [36] - Friday: Japan's March CPI; US stock market closed for Good Friday [36]

，多空交投分歧。操作上，建议暂时观望。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 119280 | 640 05-06月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -140 | -10 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 14486 | -149 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 80225 | -4461 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -1883 | 3259 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 202938 | 630 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 33256 | -3669 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 13818 | 570 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 26028 | -1138 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#镍现货价(日,元/吨) | 121750 | -850 现货均价:1#镍板:长江有色(日,元/吨) | 121850 | -850 | ...

最新一期外汇储备数据出炉。4月7日，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2025年3月末，我国外汇储备规模为32407亿美元，连续16个月保持在3.2万亿美 元关口上方。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用下，当月外汇储备规模上升。 另据央行官网更新的官方储备资产数据，截至2025年3月末，我国黄金储备7370万盎司，较2月末增长9万盎司。面对金融市场的动荡，有分析人士指出，央 行继续稳健地增持黄金，更多是出于应对地缘政治新风险点和不确定性、顺应市场避险情绪、对冲其他类别金融资产波动性的考虑。 中信证券首席经济学家明明在接受北京商报记者采访时指出，2025年3月，受主要经济体宏观经济数据、财政货币政策及预期等因素影响，美元指数下跌， 全球金融资产价格总体下跌。截至3月28日，在岸人民币汇率为1美元对7.2637元人民币，离岸人民币汇率为1美元对7.2697元人民币，较2月末分别升值 0.28%和0.35%。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用下，当月外汇储备规模上升。 黄金储备"五连增" 4月7日，受到美国"对等关税"政策影响，全球金融市场一片震荡，黄金价格波动加剧。央行在黄金储备方面的动作，也受到更多关注。 外 ...

更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 煤化工产业链周报 Coal Chemical Industry Chain Weekly Report 摘要 行情回顾 能源化工团队 | 作者： | 夏聪聪 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3012139 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0012870 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578010 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年04月07日星期一 市场避险情绪升温，煤化工板块走势偏弱。甲醇、PVC、烧碱承压 回落，上方五日均线附近阻力明显。尿素期货涨势暂缓，重心冲高 后回落。 煤炭市场 【交易策略】关税政策加剧市场波动，避险情绪升温，尿素盘面存 在回调可能，多单建议离场，上方1930-1950附近承压，下方支撑 在1850-1860附近。 ●烧碱 上游煤炭市场维稳运行，报价与前期持平。产地主流煤矿生产平稳 ，货源供应充裕，到矿拉运车辆增加，多数煤矿库存保持在低位水 平，暂无库存压力。下游刚需接货为主，需求步入淡季，支撑力度 偏弱。煤炭市场供需宽松，市场存在下行压力。 ●甲醇 【市场逻辑】成本端 ...

沪铝或维持震荡偏弱运行 华龙期货投资咨询部 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色板块研究员：刘江 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 研究报告 铝周报 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：451591573@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 7 日星期一 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 上周，沪铝期货主力合约 AL2505 价格以震荡下行行情为主。 价格范围在 20335 元/吨附近至最高 20635 元/吨左右。 【基本面分析】 美国关税大超预期，市场避险情绪升温。电解铝现货价格或 维持震荡偏弱运行，升贴水维持在平水状态。氧化铝库存小幅下 降，库存水平处于历史低位。全国铝棒库存继续下降，库存水平 仍处于历史高位。沪铝库存下降明显，库存水平处于近年来较低 位。LME 铝库存小幅下降，注销仓单占比小幅上升。 【后市展望】 短期内，铝价或以震荡偏弱趋势为主。 （一）期货价格 根据上海期货交易所数据统计，上周，沪铝期货主力合约 AL2505 价格以震荡下行行情 为主。价格范围在 2033 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a decline of 2.86% during the week of March 31 to April 4, ranking it low among all primary industries. Industrial metals saw a significant drop of 4.36%, driven by heightened concerns over the U.S. and global economic downturn due to unexpected tariff policies [1][15] - The report highlights that the recent U.S. tariff policies have significantly increased market risk aversion, leading to a notable retreat in industrial metal prices. However, the macroeconomic framework suggests a bullish outlook for gold in the medium to long term [4][47] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.28%, with the non-ferrous metals sector declining by 2.86%, underperforming the index by 2.59 percentage points. Among sub-sectors, the industrial metals segment dropped by 4.36% [15][1] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of April 4, LME copper closed at $8,780 per ton, down 10.36% week-on-week. SHFE copper was at 78,860 CNY per ton, down 3.31%. The supply side remains constrained, while demand is affected by high prices [2][32] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $2,379 per ton, down 6.63%, and SHFE aluminum at 20,420 CNY per ton, down 1.90%. Social inventory decreased, indicating a faster destocking rate [3][39] - **Zinc**: LME zinc closed at $2,657 per ton, down 7%, and SHFE zinc at 23,155 CNY per ton, down 3.94%. Both LME and SHFE inventories decreased [42] - **Tin**: LME tin closed at $35,378 per ton, down 2.32%, while SHFE tin was at 287,790 CNY per ton, up 2.27%. Inventory changes were mixed [44] Precious Metals - **Gold**: As of April 4, COMEX gold closed at $3,056.10 per ounce, down 1.99%, while SHFE gold was at 739.04 CNY per gram, up 4.05%. The recent U.S. tariff policies have heightened market risk aversion, boosting gold's safe-haven appeal [4][45][48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a significant decline of 2.86% during the week of March 31 to April 4, ranking it low among all primary industries [15] - Industrial metals prices have sharply retreated due to heightened market concerns over the U.S. and global economic downturn following unexpected tariff policies [1][25] - The report expresses a bullish outlook on gold in the medium to long term, despite short-term volatility due to liquidity shocks [4][47] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.28%, with the non-ferrous metals sector declining by 2.86%, underperforming the index by 2.59 percentage points [15] - Among sub-sectors, the industrial metals segment saw a notable drop of 4.36%, while the precious metals sector decreased by 1.24% [15] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of April 4, LME copper closed at $8,780 per ton, down 10.36% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at 78,860 CNY per ton, down 3.31% [2][32] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $2,379 per ton, down 6.63%, and SHFE aluminum at 20,420 CNY per ton, down 1.90% [3][39] - **Zinc**: LME zinc closed at $2,657 per ton, down 7%, and SHFE zinc at 23,155 CNY per ton, down 3.94% [42] - **Tin**: LME tin closed at $35,378 per ton, down 2.32%, while SHFE tin was at 287,790 CNY per ton, up 2.27% [44] Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $3,056.10 per ounce, down 1.99%, while SHFE gold was at 739.04 CNY per gram, up 4.05% [45][48] - The report highlights that the U.S. effective tariff rate has surged to 22.5%, the highest since 1909, intensifying market fears regarding economic downturns and boosting gold's safe-haven appeal [47]

文 ｜ 明明 余经纬 秦楚媛 彭阳 周昀锋 王楠茜 王淦 耶鲁研究 表明若美国平均关税税率提升1%，则PCE会提升0 . 1% 。我们测算对等关税若全部落地（不考虑反制措施），美国加权平均关税税 率将提升1 7 . 9%，对应推升美国PCE 1 . 8%左右，会对美国经济产生较大的负面冲击。对等关税落地的时间差或为各个国家与美国谈判的窗 口，并且白宫公告表明"如果贸易伙伴采取重大措施补救非互惠贸易安排并在经济和国家安全事务上与美国保持一致，则降低关税"。当前泰 国、韩国等国家已表示将与美国就关税问题进行谈判。因而最后对等关税最终是否会全部落地还需观察等待，存在部分国家积极谈判后关税税 率下降或被豁免的可能性。 市场避险情绪浓厚，美联储降息预期升温。 特朗普对等关税落地推动1 0年期美债利率大幅下行，美股期货集体跳水，纳指期货跌幅至4%，市 场预期年内美联储降息次数升至3次。考虑特朗普关税落地后将在一季度后的美国通胀中显现，并且市场通胀预期已经在今年一季度明显上 升，因而此轮美联储降息或将较为被动，或会在就业等经济数据明显恶化后才重启降息。 ▍ 大类资产后续如何演绎？ 北京时间4月3日凌晨，美国总统特朗普在白宫 ...