Workflow
中美贸易关系
icon
Search documents
五矿期货农产品早报-20250728
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 01:15
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - North American weather restricts the upside of US soybeans, and they are expected to trade in a range due to low valuation; domestic soybean meal remains weak due to pig production capacity control policies and inventory accumulation [2]. - The external soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, lacking a clear directional driver, while domestic soybean import costs are rising slightly due to a single - supply source and may be difficult to decline without substantial improvement in Sino - US soybean trade [2]. - EPA policy, long - term B50 policy expectations, and limited Southeast Asian supply boost the annual operating center of edible oils, but there are still bearish factors due to the significant year - on - year recovery of Southeast Asian palm oil production [6]. Summary by Directory Soybean/Meal Important Information - US soybeans closed lower on the night of last Friday. North American weather is favorable, restricting the upside, and they are expected to trade in a range. Domestic soybean meal is weak due to pig production capacity control policies and inventory accumulation. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable over the weekend, with the East China price at 2840 yuan/ton. Last week, soybean meal sales were average, but提货 remained high, and downstream inventory days decreased slightly to a medium - level in history. MYSTEEL statistics show that 2.2389 million tons of soybeans were crushed last week, and 2.3726 million tons are expected to be crushed this week [2]. - The US soybean growing area is expected to have normal rainfall and high temperatures in the next two weeks, which is generally beneficial for growth. In Brazil, the premium has stabilized and rebounded. The external soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, lacking a clear directional driver, while domestic soybean import costs are rising slightly due to a single - supply source and may be difficult to decline without substantial improvement in Sino - US soybean trade [2]. - The import cost of external soybeans is affected by low valuation, EPA policy, and the fact that Brazil is the sole supplier from September to January, resulting in volatile trading. However, with the global oversupply of protein raw materials, there is insufficient upward momentum for soybean import costs. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal oversupply situation, and the spot market is expected to start destocking at the end of September [4]. Trading Strategy - The soybean meal market is a mix of bullish and bearish factors. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, waiting for progress on Sino - US tariffs and new drivers from the supply side. For arbitrage, pay attention to widening the spread of the 09 contract between soybean meal and rapeseed meal when the spread is low [4]. Edible Oils Important Information - High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports in June had different trends: an expected increase of 5.31% - 12% in the first 10 days, a 5.29% - 6.16% decline in the first 15 days, a 3.57% - 7.31% decline in the first 20 days, and a 9.2% - 15.22% decline in the first 25 days. SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 35.28% in the first 10 days of July 2025, 17.06% in the first 15 days, and 6.19% in the first 20 days [6]. - In the second quarter of 2025, Brazil's biodiesel production increased by 5.6% year - on - year to 2.08 million tons, and the production from January to June reached 3.97 million tons (+7.3%). This has stimulated the consumption of soybean oil as a raw material, with its usage in biofuel production increasing by 10% to 1.6 million tons from April to June [6]. - Domestic palm oil fluctuated and declined last Friday, and the net long positions of foreign - funded institutions in the three major edible oils decreased slightly. Overall, EPA policy, long - term B50 policy expectations, and limited Southeast Asian supply boost the annual operating center of edible oils, but there are still bearish factors due to the significant year - on - year recovery of Southeast Asian palm oil production [6]. - Domestic spot basis levels are stable at low levels. The basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou is 09 + 30 (0) yuan/ton, the basis of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu is 09 + 130 (0) yuan/ton, and the basis of rapeseed oil in East China is 09 + 120 (0) yuan/ton [8]. Trading Strategy - Fundamentally, the US biodiesel policy draft exceeds expectations, Southeast Asian palm oil has limited production growth potential, low inventories of Indian vegetable oils create rigid demand, and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia support the price center of edible oils. For palm oil, if demand countries maintain normal imports and production remains at a moderate level from July to September, inventories in producing areas may remain stable, supporting a firm and volatile price. There may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to the B50 policy in Indonesia. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upside is restricted by factors such as the expected annual increase in edible oil production, high palm oil production in producing areas, the undetermined RVO rules, macro - factors, and adjustments in demand from major importing countries. It is recommended to view it with a volatile perspective [9]. Sugar Key Information - Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to fluctuate on Friday. The closing price of the September contract was 5876 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.17% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups quoted 6030 - 6090 yuan/ton, up 0 - 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; Yunnan sugar - making groups quoted 5830 - 5870 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; and processing sugar mills' mainstream quotes were in the range of 6160 - 6210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The basis between Guangxi spot and the main Zhengzhou sugar contract (sr2509) is 154 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week ending July 23, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 76, down from 77 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 3.3408 million tons, up 246,500 tons from the previous week [11]. Trading Strategy - China is currently in the best window period for sugar imports in the past five years, and the pressure of import supply may increase in the second half of the year. Assuming that the external price does not rebound significantly, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton Key Information - Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to fluctuate on Friday. The closing price of the September contract was 14,170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.07% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (CCIndex 3128B) was 15,340 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis between the Xinjiang machine - picked cotton price and the main Zhengzhou cotton contract (CF2509) is 1170 yuan/ton [14]. - As of the week ending July 25, the operating rate of spinning mills was 67.6%, down 1.9 percentage points from the previous week but up 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of weaving mills was 37.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous week and 0.8 percentage points from the same period last year; the weekly commercial inventory of cotton was 2.31 million tons, down 150,000 tons from the previous week but up 90,000 tons from the same period last year [14]. Trading Strategy - Although the Sino - US trade agreement has not been finalized, the price of Zhengzhou cotton has rebounded to the level before the announcement of US equivalent tariffs, partially reflecting the positive expectation. Fundamentally, downstream consumption has been average recently. The market also expects that sliding - scale import quotas may be issued in the third quarter, which is a potential bearish factor for cotton prices [15]. Eggs Spot Information - Egg prices in China weakened over the weekend, with some areas remaining stable. The price of large - sized eggs in Heishan remained at 2.9 yuan/jin, while the price in Guantao dropped 0.18 yuan to 3 yuan/jin. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level, and the market supply is sufficient, although high - quality large - sized eggs are in short supply. After consecutive price increases, terminal sentiment has become more cautious, but consumption is in the traditional peak season. It is expected that demand will be weak at the beginning of this week and then strengthen, and egg prices may rise again after a small decline [17]. Trading Strategy - High temperatures have led to a decline in egg - laying rates, alleviating supply pressure and triggering market stocking sentiment. The spot price bottomed out earlier and rose more than expected, causing short - position holders in the near - month contracts to flee. However, with a high premium, long - position holders still lack confidence. In the short term, the near - month contracts will fluctuate mainly following the spot price, lacking a clear trend. For the 09 and subsequent post - festival contracts, the earlier bottoming of the spot price further reduces the sentiment of culling hens. With limited cost changes and an expected continuous increase in theoretical supply, the upside of the spot price is limited, and the high - price period is expected to be short. Continue to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds [18]. Pigs Spot Information - Pig prices in China remained stable over the weekend, with some areas showing small fluctuations. The average price in Henan dropped 0.01 yuan to 14.12 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped 0.01 yuan to 13.31 yuan/kg. In the northern market, farmers' enthusiasm for selling increased, and downstream buyers pressured prices, leading to price declines in most areas. In the southern market, farmers mostly maintained stable prices and waited and watched, with overall prices showing little change and remaining stable. It is expected that pig prices will be mostly stable today with some local declines [20]. Trading Strategy - The market is trading on the government's intervention in reducing pig production capacity, which has restructured the original logic of oversupply. The valuations of all contracts on the futures market have increased significantly, especially for the long - term contracts. For the near - term contracts, although the theoretical supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, the pre - release of pressure through active weight reduction and the possibility of active weight gain due to the large price difference between fat and standard pigs reduce the possibility of a significant inventory reduction in the early fourth quarter, and the spread between contracts may move towards a positive structure. For the long - term contracts, the long - term government regulation of sow production capacity cannot be disproven for now, and the spread is more likely to be in a reverse structure. With the industry structure in the process of restructuring, the uncertainty of unilateral trading increases. It is recommended to focus more on spread trading opportunities [21].
国泰君安期货研究周报:农产品-20250727
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-27 12:58
2025年07月27日 国泰君安期货研究周报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油:宏观情绪消退,基本面或有回踩 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油:缺乏有效驱动,关注中美谈判结果 | 2 | | 豆粕:关注中美经贸会谈,盘面震荡 | 7 | | 豆一:基本面稳定,关注技术面波动 | 7 | | 白糖:区间整理,内强外弱 | 13 | | 棉花:预计维持震荡偏强走势 | 20 | | 生猪:强预期弱现实,关注路径变化 | 27 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 7 月 27 日 棕榈油:宏观情绪消退,基本面或有回踩 豆油:缺乏有效驱动,关注中美谈判结果 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读: 上周观点及逻辑: 棕榈油:国内宏观情绪偏好将棕榈油顶至三年高位,但基本面缺乏强驱动,没有强供给题材的上涨需 要较强的下游需求进行承接,印度承接乏力的情况下价格高位难以继续上冲,棕榈油 09 合约周跌 0.31%。 豆油:中美贸易谈判临近,豆系紧张情绪抬头, ...
蛋白粕周报:国内压力增大,外盘成本支撑-20250726
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-26 12:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The external soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, with no clear directional driver yet. However, the import cost of domestic soybeans is in a state of small - scale upward fluctuation due to a single supply source, and it may be difficult to decline before the Sino - US soybean trade improves substantially. - The domestic double - meal market: the domestic soybean meal spot price has followed the futures price down this week. The domestic market has weak trading volume, and the inventory days of feed enterprises have slightly decreased to 8.19 days, slightly higher than the same period last year. The soybean purchase agreement, soybean meal shipping, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' promotion of reducing soybean meal consumption have suppressed the valuation of soybean meal. - Overall, the soybean meal market is intertwined with long and short factors. It is recommended to try long positions at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the high end, waiting for progress in Sino - US tariffs and new drivers on the supply side. For arbitrage, pay attention to widening the spread of the soybean meal - rapeseed meal 09 contract [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Soybeans**: This week, US soybeans fluctuated weakly. The pressure of a good harvest due to favorable weather and the positive impact of trade agreements on exports were intertwined. The USDA July monthly report maintained the US soybean production level at about 118 million tons in the 25/26 season, with the crushing volume increased by 1.36 million tons and the export volume decreased by 1.91 million tons. The inventory increased by about 410,000 tons month - on - month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio in the 25/26 season increased from 6.68% to 7.06%. South American old - crop soybeans are also in a state of good harvest, and the global soybean supply still exceeds demand. The USDA monthly report reduced the export of Brazilian soybeans in the 24/25 season, and the global soybean inventory - to - sales ratio in the 25/26 season increased from 29.54% to 29.65%. - **Domestic Double - Meal**: This week, the domestic soybean meal spot price followed the futures price down. Information such as possible soybean purchase agreements, soybean meal shipping, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' promotion of reducing soybean meal consumption has suppressed the valuation of soybean meal. As of July 22, the shipping volume in March was 13.79 million tons, 10.29 million tons in April, 11.81 million tons in May, 12.72 million tons in June, 10.5 million tons in July, 8.84 million tons in August, 6.2 million tons in September, and 1.06 million tons in October. The shipping progress indicates that the domestic soybean inventory may decline around the end of September, and the domestic soybean - related prices may bottom out and fluctuate before that. - **Strategy Recommendations**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to try long positions at the low end of the soybean meal cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the high end, waiting for progress in Sino - US tariffs and new drivers on the supply side. For arbitrage, pay attention to widening the spread of the soybean meal - rapeseed meal 09 contract [9][10][11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: Figures 1 and 2 show the spot prices of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong respectively over the years. - **Basis of Main Contracts**: Figures 3 and 4 show the basis of the soybean meal 09 contract and the rapeseed meal 09 contract respectively. - **Spreads**: Figures 5 - 8 show various spreads such as the soybean meal 09 - 01 spread, the soybean meal 09 - rapeseed meal 09 spread, etc. - **Fund Positions**: Figures 9 and 10 show the net long positions of US soybean and US soybean meal managed funds respectively [17][19][22][25]. 3.3 Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: Figures 11 - 14 show the US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and excellent - good rate respectively over the years. - **Weather Conditions**: Figures 15 and 16 show the weighted precipitation in the US soybean - producing areas and the Canadian rapeseed - producing areas respectively, with forecasts up to August 9, 2025. - **El Niño Situation**: Figures 17 - 20 show the CFS El Niño outlook, La Niña occurrence probability, and the impact of La Niña on precipitation in North America and climate in South America. - **US Soybean Processing and Related Data**: Figures 21 - 24 show the US soybean processing profit, the spot price of No. 1 yellow soybeans in central Illinois, the US monthly soybean processing volume, and the NOPA soybean oil inventory. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: Figures 25 - 28 show the US soybean's total export contracts signed with China in the current market year, the sales completion rate of the current year, the total export contracts signed in the current market year, and the cumulative export shipment volume to China. - **China's Oilseed Imports**: Figures 29 and 30 show the monthly import volume and forecast of soybeans and rapeseeds in China. - **China's Oil Mill Processing Situation**: Figures 31 and 32 show the soybean processing volume and rapeseed processing volume of major oil mills in China [31][34][36][46][50][53][55]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: Figures 33 and 34 show the soybean port inventory and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills. - **Protein Meal Inventory**: Figures 35 and 36 show the soybean meal inventory and forecast of coastal major oil mills and the rapeseed meal inventory of coastal major oil mills. - **Protein Meal Processing Profit**: Figures 37 and 38 show the processing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the processing profit of imported rapeseeds in coastal areas [59][62][64]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Soybean Meal Demand Data**: Figures 39 and 40 show the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills in the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal. - **Breeding Profit**: Figures 41 and 42 show the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers [67][69].
五矿期货农产品早报-20250725
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 00:38
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, with no clear directional driver yet. The domestic soybean import cost is oscillating and slightly rising due to a single - supply source. The soybean or protein supply is still in surplus, and the domestic soybean meal market has a complex situation of multiple long and short factors [2][4]. - The palm oil market is influenced by various factors. The US biodiesel policy and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia support the price, but the high - level production forecast, high production in producing areas, and other factors limit the upside space [6][9]. - The domestic sugar market may face increased import supply pressure in the second half of the year, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline if the external market price does not rebound significantly [12]. - The cotton market has shown a partial rebound, but the downstream consumption is average, and the potential issuance of sliding - scale import quotas is a negative factor [15]. - The egg market is currently stable with limited trading. The short - term price is guided by the spot price and lacks a clear trend, while the post - festival contracts after September may offer short - selling opportunities [18][19]. - The pig market has a short - term divergence between futures and spot prices. The market has expectations of capacity reduction in the future, but the hedging pressure is high. Attention should be paid to the pressure after the seasonal rebound [22]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **Important Information**: North American weather is favorable, limiting the upside space of US soybeans. The domestic soybean meal futures prices fell at night on Thursday, and the spot prices dropped significantly. The downstream inventory days are higher than the same period last year. The domestic soybean import cost is affected by a single - supply source and is oscillating slightly upward [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The soybean meal market has multiple long and short factors. It is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing profit and supply pressure at the higher end, waiting for new drivers from the Sino - US tariff situation and the supply side [4]. Oil - **Important Information**: The high - frequency export data of Malaysian palm oil shows different trends in different periods. The production in July has increased. The MPOB expects an increase in the production and export of Malaysian palm oil in 2025, while the GAPKI expects a decrease in Indonesia's palm oil exports. The domestic palm oil is oscillating, and the net long positions of foreign - funded institutions in the three major oils have changed slightly [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The palm oil price is rising due to the optimistic sentiment in the commodity market. The US biodiesel policy supports the price, but the upside space is limited by factors such as high - level production expectations, high production in producing areas, and uncertain RVO rules. It should be regarded as an oscillating market [9]. Sugar - **Important Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rose slightly on Thursday. The spot prices of sugar in different regions showed different trends. The sugarcane yield and sugar content in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased in June [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The domestic sugar market is in a good import profit window, and the import supply pressure may increase in the second half of the year. If the external market price does not rebound significantly, the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to oscillate on Thursday. The spot price of cotton in Xinjiang increased slightly. The weather in major cotton - producing areas is favorable, and the expected yield per unit of new cotton in 2025 is expected to increase [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Although the Zhengzhou cotton price has rebounded, the downstream consumption is average. The potential issuance of sliding - scale import quotas in July - August is a negative factor [15]. Egg - **Important Information**: The egg prices in most regions are stable, with only a few adjustments. The inventory of eggs in the market is small, the demand in the sales areas is stable, and the trading volume is average [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: High temperatures have reduced the egg - laying rate, and the supply pressure has eased. The short - term price is guided by the spot price and lacks a clear trend. The post - festival contracts after September may offer short - selling opportunities [19]. Pig - **Important Information**: The domestic pig prices continued to fall on Thursday. The market supply is sufficient, and the terminal consumption is weak [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: There is a short - term divergence between futures and spot prices in the pig market. The market has expectations of capacity reduction in the future, but the hedging pressure is high. Attention should be paid to the pressure after the seasonal rebound [22].
五矿期货农产品早报-20250724
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 01:16
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean and soybean meal markets are facing a complex situation with both bullish and bearish factors. The overall trend is expected to be range - bound. The domestic soybean import cost may be difficult to decline before the Sino - US soybean trade improves [2]. - The palm oil market is affected by multiple factors such as bio - diesel policies and production levels. It is expected to be volatile, with potential upside in the fourth quarter but limited by various negative factors [2][9]. - The domestic sugar market may see a downward trend in the future due to potential import pressure, assuming no significant rebound in the external market [12]. - The cotton market has limited upside potential due to potential issuance of import quotas and general downstream consumption [15]. - The egg market lacks a clear trend in the short - term, and for post - festival contracts, short - selling opportunities after rebounds can be considered [18]. - The pig market has high - valued futures but faces risks such as over - hedging and potential supply pressure after the seasonal rebound [21]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean/M粕类 - **Market Situation**: Wednesday night, US soybean and soybean meal futures declined. The good North American weather restricts the upside, but low valuation, good old - crop sales, and biodiesel policies support demand. The domestic soybean import cost is rising slightly due to a single supply source. The domestic soybean meal market is characterized by low valuation, high short - term supply, active downstream pick - up, and cost support for 9 - 1 month soybean purchases [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the soybean meal market having both bullish and bearish factors, it is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, while waiting for progress on Sino - US tariffs and new supply - side drivers [4]. Fats and Oils - **Important Information**: Malaysian palm oil export data shows different trends in different periods in June, and production increased in July. As of July 15, 2025, the total vegetable oil inventory in Indian ports increased by 18% in half a month. The domestic palm oil market was volatile on Wednesday, and the net long positions of foreign capital in the three major fats and oils decreased slightly [6][7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The palm oil market is expected to be volatile. There is a potential for price increase in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy, but the upside is limited by factors such as annual - level production increase expectations and uncertain RVO rules [9]. Sugar - **Key Information**: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to fluctuate. The 9 - month contract of Zheng sugar closed at 5834 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The import of syrup and premixed powder decreased year - on - year in 2025 [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The domestic sugar market may see a downward trend in the future due to potential import pressure, assuming no significant rebound in the external market [12]. Cotton - **Key Information**: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to fluctuate. The 9 - month contract of Zheng cotton closed at 14180 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The national new cotton yield per mu in 2025 is expected to increase by 2.5% [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Although the Zhengzhou cotton price has rebounded, the downstream consumption is average, and the potential issuance of import quotas in July - August is a negative factor for cotton prices [15]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: The national egg price mainly increased. The main production area's average price rose to 3.31 yuan/jin. The egg market trading was stable, and the egg price is expected to be mostly stable with a few increases [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term egg market lacks a clear trend and is mainly guided by the spot price. For post - festival contracts, short - selling opportunities after rebounds can be considered [18]. Pigs - **Spot Information**: The domestic pig price mainly declined. The production side's sales were active, but the consumption side was weak, and the pig price is expected to continue to be weak [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures market is highly valued, but there are risks such as over - hedging and potential supply pressure after the seasonal rebound [21].
美菲总统白宫会晤答问中谈及中国,特朗普:可能会在“不远的将来”访华
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-07-23 03:32
Group 1 - President Trump indicated a potential visit to China in the near future during a meeting with Philippine President Marcos [1][3] - Trump emphasized that the U.S. has a good relationship with China and does not mind the Philippines maintaining friendly ties with China [4] - A trade agreement was reportedly reached between the U.S. and the Philippines, with the U.S. imposing a 19% tariff while the Philippines will open its market with zero tariffs [4] Group 2 - The context of Trump's statements comes amid a de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions, with a third round of trade talks scheduled in Sweden [4] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin mentioned that discussions may include China's purchases of oil from Russia and Iran, indicating a broader scope for negotiations [4] - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterated its consistent stance on tariffs and expressed hope for constructive dialogue to enhance U.S.-China relations [4]
五矿期货农产品早报-20250723
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 01:26
Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Agricultural Products Morning Report of Wukuang Futures on July 23, 2025, covering multiple agricultural product sectors including soybeans, oils, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs [1] Group 2: Soybean and Meal Core View - The U.S. soybean night session declined on Tuesday. Good North American weather limits the upside, but with slightly low valuation, strong old - crop sales, and biodiesel policies supporting demand, it is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. The domestic soybean meal spot prices were mixed on Tuesday, with transactions being average and提货 reaching 190,000 tons, and downstream inventory days exceeding last year's level. The domestic soybean crushing volume was 2.3055 million tons last week and is expected to be 2.2351 million tons this week [2] Transaction Strategy - The external soybean import cost is oscillating due to low valuation, EPA policy support, and single - source supply from Brazil from September to January, but the overall soybean or protein supply is still in surplus. The domestic soybean meal market has low valuation, short - term high supply, active downstream提货, and medium - to - high inventory days for feed enterprises. However, the soybean procurement from September to January has cost support due to Sino - U.S. tariffs. It is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range, pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, and wait for progress on Sino - U.S. tariffs and new supply - side drivers [4] Group 3: Oils Important Information - High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 to 10 are expected to increase by 5.31% - 12%, from June 1 to 15 are expected to decrease by 5.29% - 6.16% month - on - month, and from June 1 to 20 are expected to decrease by 3.57% - 7.31% month - on - month. SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 35.28% from July 1 to 10, 17.06% from July 1 to 15, and 6.19% from July 1 to 20 in 2025. As of July 15, 2025, India's total vegetable oil inventory at ports has risen to 855,679 metric tons, a surge of 18% in just half a month compared to June 30 [6] Core View - The domestic palm oil oscillated on Tuesday. With a positive sentiment in the commodity market, the net long positions of foreign capital in the three major oils may start to decline. The EPA policy, the long - term B50 policy expectation, and limited Southeast Asian supply boost the annual operation center of oils, but the Southeast Asian palm oil production has recovered significantly year - on - year, and there are still negative factors. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [7] Transaction Strategy - The recent optimistic sentiment in the commodity market has pushed the palm oil price to continue rising. The U.S. biodiesel policy draft exceeding expectations supports the oil price center. If demand countries maintain normal imports and palm oil production in producing areas remains at a neutral level from July to September, the inventory in producing areas may remain stable, and there may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upside is restricted by factors such as annual - level production increase expectations, high palm oil production in producing areas, undetermined RVO rules, and weak edible demand in major demand countries. It should be viewed as oscillating [9] Group 4: Sugar Important Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to oscillate. The closing price of the September contract was 5,823 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups quoted 6,010 - 6,090 yuan/ton, down 0 - 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; Yunnan sugar - making groups quoted 5,820 - 5,860 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; processing sugar mills' mainstream quotes were in the range of 6,180 - 6,220 yuan/ton, down 0 - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis between Guangxi spot and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract (sr2509) was 187 yuan/ton. In June 2025, China imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. From January to June 2025, China imported 459,100 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 492,400 tons. As of June in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, China imported 1.0983 million tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 269,500 tons [11] Transaction Strategy - China is currently in the best import profit window in the past five years, and the import supply pressure may increase in the second half of the year. Assuming that the external price does not rebound significantly, the Zhengzhou sugar price is more likely to continue to decline [12] Group 5: Cotton Important Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price was weakly oscillating. The closing price of the September contract was 14,225 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton or 0.28% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B Xinjiang machine - picked delivery price was 15,330 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis between the 3128B Xinjiang machine - picked delivery price and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2509) was 1,105 yuan/ton. According to the latest weekly crop growth report data from USDA, as of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 57%, up 3 percentage points from the previous week, rising for the fourth consecutive week and reaching the highest level in the same period in four years; the squaring rate was 71%, up 10 percentage points from the previous week and 8 percentage points lower than the same period last year; the boll - setting rate was 33%, up 10 percentage points from the previous week and 7 percentage points lower than the same period last year [14] Transaction Strategy - Although the Sino - U.S. trade agreement has not been finalized, the Zhengzhou cotton price has rebounded to the level before the announcement of U.S. equivalent tariffs, partially reflecting positive expectations. In terms of fundamentals, the recent downstream consumption is average. The market expects that sliding - scale import quotas may be increased from July to August, which is a potential negative factor for cotton prices [15] Group 6: Eggs Important Information - National egg prices were mostly stable, with a few rising and a few slightly falling. The average price in the main producing areas rose 0.04 yuan to 3.23 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained unchanged at 2.7 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao rose 0.11 yuan to 3.18 yuan/jin. The remaining egg inventory is not large, the demand in the sales areas has slightly improved, and dealers' purchasing enthusiasm is okay. The egg market trading is stable, and today's egg prices are expected to mostly rise and a few remain stable [17][18] Transaction Strategy - High temperatures have led to a decline in egg - laying rates, alleviating supply pressure and igniting market stocking sentiment. The spot price bottomed out earlier and the increase was higher than expected, causing short - sellers in the near - month contracts to flee. However, long - sellers lack confidence under the high premium, and the price will mainly oscillate in the short term, lacking a clear trend. For contracts after September, the earlier bottoming of the spot price further reduces the sentiment of culling hens. With limited cost changes and the expectation of continuous increase in theoretical supply, continue to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds, and be aware of the risks of spot price fluctuations and large open interest [19] Group 7: Pigs Important Information - Domestic pig prices generally fell yesterday. The average price in Henan dropped 0.05 yuan to 14.48 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 13.57 yuan/kg. Farmers are actively selling pigs, and the market supply is sufficient. High temperatures and rainfall have suppressed pork demand. Today's pig prices may be stable or decline [21] Transaction Strategy - In the short term, the increase in basic supply is limited, and there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation. After digesting the selling pressure in the middle of the month, the spot price may rise again in August, but it is difficult to reach a new high. The futures price has obvious support at the valuation end due to the discount. For the September contract, focus on buying on dips. Starting from the fourth quarter of the second half of the year, the inventory accumulation period will gradually begin. The replenishment of散户 pens and the increase in basic supply will add pressure to the pre - Spring Festival market. However, the futures price has already factored in the expectation in advance, and the premium for far - month contracts is insufficient. For off - season contracts such as November, wait for short - selling or hedging opportunities after the price rebounds, and avoid excessive short - selling [22]
中美大消息!直线大涨!
中国基金报· 2025-07-22 13:37
Core Viewpoint - The suspension of the antitrust investigation against DuPont China Group by the State Administration for Market Regulation is seen as a positive development amid improving Sino-U.S. relations [2][3]. Group 1: DuPont China Group - The State Administration for Market Regulation has paused the antitrust investigation against DuPont China Group [2][3]. - Following the announcement, DuPont's stock price surged over 2% in pre-market trading [6]. - The investigation was initiated after the U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, which led to a significant drop in DuPont's stock price [9]. Group 2: Rare Earth Magnet Exports - In June, China's exports of rare earth magnets to the U.S. increased to over seven times the amount exported in May, reaching 353 tons, a 660% growth [10]. - Overall, China exported 3,188 tons of rare earth magnets globally in June, a 157.5% increase from May, although this represents a 38.1% decline compared to the same period in 2024 [11]. - Analysts expect further recovery in rare earth magnet exports in July as more exporters obtain licenses [12].
五矿期货农产品早报-20250722
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 00:48
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean and meal market is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. The domestic soybean import cost may be difficult to decline before the substantial improvement of Sino - US soybean trade. The domestic soybean meal market is multi - faceted, and trading strategies should be adjusted according to different price levels and policy developments [3][5]. - The palm oil market is affected by factors such as the US biodiesel policy and the Indonesian B50 policy, but the upside is limited by factors like annual - level production increase expectations and high production in palm - producing areas. It is expected to fluctuate [9]. - The domestic sugar market may face increased import supply pressure in the second half of the year. If the external market price does not rebound significantly, the domestic sugar price is likely to continue to decline [12]. - The cotton market has potential negative factors such as the possible issuance of sliding - scale import quotas from July to August, and the downstream consumption is average [15]. - The egg market is in a state of short - term oscillation. For post - festival contracts, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the rebound [18]. - The pig market has limited short - term supply increase, and the 09 contract can be considered for buying at low prices. For off - season contracts such as 11, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the rebound [21]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **Important Information**: On Monday, the US soybean night session declined, while the US soybean oil rose. The good old - crop sales and biodiesel policy support demand, but the good North American weather limits the upside. The domestic soybean meal spot price increased slightly, with good trading volume. The oil mill's soybean meal inventory is close to 1 million tons, and the port soybean inventory is around 8 million tons. The buying of ships after September is relatively scarce. The US soybean production area has less rainfall and higher temperatures in the next two weeks, and the Brazilian premium has stabilized after a slight decline [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The external soybean import cost fluctuates, and the overall supply of soybeans or protein is still in surplus. The domestic soybean meal market is multi - faceted. It is recommended to try long positions at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing margin and supply pressure at the high end, waiting for the progress of Sino - US tariffs and new drivers on the supply side [5]. Oils - **Important Information**: The high - frequency export data of Malaysian palm oil shows different trends in different periods. The production in July increased compared to the previous period. The total inventory of vegetable oils in Indian ports increased significantly in half a month. The domestic palm oil declined on Monday, and the net long positions of foreign capital in the three major oils began to decline. The EPA policy is beneficial, but there are still negative factors in the oil market. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The optimistic sentiment in the commodity market promotes the continuous rise of palm oil. The US biodiesel policy supports the oil price center. If the demand countries maintain normal imports and the production in palm - producing areas is at a neutral level from July to September, the inventory in the producing areas may remain stable, and there may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upside is limited. It is expected to fluctuate [9]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to oscillate. The spot price of sugar in different regions had different changes. The import volume of sugar in June 2025 increased year - on - year, but the cumulative import volume from January to June decreased year - on - year [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The domestic sugar market is in the best import profit window in the past five years, and the import supply pressure may increase in the second half of the year. If the external market price does not rebound significantly, the domestic sugar price is likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price declined slightly. The spot price of cotton increased slightly. The operating rates of spinning and weaving factories decreased, and the cotton commercial inventory decreased. The cotton import volume in June decreased significantly year - on - year [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Although the Sino - US trade agreement has not been finalized, the Zhengzhou cotton price has rebounded. The downstream consumption is average, and the possible issuance of sliding - scale import quotas from July to August is a potential negative factor for cotton prices [15]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: The national egg price is mostly stable, with individual slight adjustments. The market trading is stable, and the egg price is expected to be mostly stable, with a few rising and a few slightly falling [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: High temperatures lead to a decrease in egg - laying rates, and the supply pressure is relieved. The short - term market oscillates, lacking a clear trend. For post - festival contracts, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the rebound, and be aware of the risks of spot price fluctuations and large positions [18]. Pigs - **Spot Information**: The domestic pig price rose and fell in different regions yesterday. The demand is weak, and the pig price is expected to rise, fall, or remain stable today [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term supply increase is limited, and the 09 contract can be considered for buying at low prices. For off - season contracts such as 11, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the rebound, and be aware of the risks of price fluctuations [21].
关注中美能否达成协议,豆粕短期或震荡偏强
Hua Lian Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 02:24
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of uncertain Sino-US trade relations, it is expected that soybean meal and rapeseed meal may fluctuate with a slightly upward trend [3][4]. - The key factors to watch include the weather conditions in US soybean - producing areas, the arrival of imported soybeans, domestic demand for soybean meal, and Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Viewpoints - **US Soybeans**: The growth of US soybeans is currently good based on the excellent - good rate. There is a potential drought risk at the end of July, and the weather in August, the critical growth period, needs close attention. The market is also concerned about whether countries can reach agreements with the US, especially the Sino - US agreement, which is crucial for the domestic soybean meal market [3]. - **South America**: It is currently the peak export season for Brazilian soybeans, and the premium of Brazilian soybeans has slightly rebounded [3]. - **Domestic**: In the next two months, the arrival of imported soybeans will continue to increase, the inventory of soybean meal will rise, the pressure on oil mills due to full storage will increase, and the spot basis of soybean meal will be weak [3]. Strategy Viewpoints and Outlook - **Unilateral**: It is recommended that the support level for soybean meal 2509 be around 2850. For options, it is advisable to wait and see [4]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Outlook**: Monitor the weather in US soybean - producing areas, the arrival of imported soybeans, domestic demand for soybean meal, and Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations [4]. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Price Movement**: Last week, soybean meal futures fluctuated with a slightly upward trend due to the expectation of a Sino - US agreement. The July USDA report was neutral to bearish as it lowered the export forecast for US soybeans in the 25/26 season and raised domestic crushing, resulting in an increase in ending stocks from 295 million bushels in June to 310 million bushels [13]. - **Futures Spread**: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is fluctuating widely and is currently at a historically low level, so it is recommended to wait and see. The 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal is fluctuating weakly, and it is also recommended to wait and see [17][20]. - **Spot Basis**: The spot basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is presented in the report, but no specific analysis is provided [21]. Supply - Side - **US Soybean Sales**: As of July 10, 2025, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the market year was 271,850 tons [30]. - **US Soybean Crushing**: As of the week of July 11, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.46 per bushel, with a 1.23% increase from the previous week and an 8.21% decrease compared to the same period last year [36]. - **Chinese Imports**: In June 2025, China imported 12.264 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 1.6544 million tons from May and a 10.35% increase compared to June 2024. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import of soybeans was 49.37 million tons, a 1.83% increase year - on - year [39]. Demand - Side - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding**: The report presents data on pig prices, pig - grain ratios, pig - raising profits, chicken - raising profits, etc., but no specific analysis is provided [54][63]. Inventory - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory**: As of July 11, the national port soybean inventory was 6.5749 million tons, a 3.31% increase from the previous week and an 11.18% increase year - on - year. The domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 886,200 tons, a 7.76% increase from the previous week and a 27.32% decrease year - on - year [71]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Inventory**: As of July 11, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 146,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons from the previous week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 15,100 tons, an increase of 10,500 tons from the previous week [76].