Core Insights - The recent negotiations between China and the U.S. in Kuala Lumpur signal a commitment to dialogue and cooperation rather than confrontation, providing a boost to the global economy [1] Group 1: Trade Agreements - The U.S. will eliminate the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspend the 24% tariff on Chinese products, easing some economic pressure on China [3] - Both countries agreed to pause their respective export control measures, including investigations into maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors, allowing for a temporary respite [3] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The negotiations reveal a consensus based on mutual respect and equal consultation, indicating a shift in international dynamics where the U.S. is perceived to be losing its dominant position [4] - China's strategic patience and adaptability in global affairs are highlighted, showcasing its ability to leverage its strengths to compel the U.S. to acknowledge its status [6] Group 3: Rare Earths and Global Positioning - China has decided to temporarily suspend new regulations on rare earth export controls, maintaining its dominant position in this critical sector [6] - This move sends a strong signal that China possesses retaliatory capabilities against external pressures, emphasizing the potential costs for the U.S. if it continues its aggressive stance [6] Group 4: Future Cooperation - The outcomes of the Kuala Lumpur negotiations reflect a broader response to globalization, with countries seeking paths for cooperation and development [8] - If both nations continue to engage in dialogue based on equality and mutual benefit, it could lead to a new phase of development in both economic and international order restructuring [8]

Report Information - Report Name: "豆粕月报" [1] - Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Report Theme: "升水修复，重新起航", "阶段性协议达成 豆粕谨慎偏强" [4][5] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Supply side: Important data such as the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans and the adjustment of the new-season yield per unit are unavailable due to the US government shutdown. Based on weather conditions, there is room for a downward adjustment of the new-season US soybean yield per unit, and the new-season US soybeans may experience a certain reduction in production. In late October, China and the US reached a phased trade agreement. If implemented as the US announced, US soybean export data is expected to return to normal levels, reducing the pressure on the ending stocks of new-season US soybeans. In Brazil, the new-season sowing is progressing orderly, with the possibility of a record-high yield. Global soybean supply is abundant due to Brazil's continuous output [7][62]. - Demand side: In October, the trading of soybean meal was lackluster, with a strong wait-and-see attitude in the market. Terminal demand is relatively stable, with high inventories of pigs and laying hens. Although there is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long term, it does not affect the short - to medium - term demand for feed. Future demand may fluctuate periodically but is generally optimistic [7][62]. - Outlook: The 01 basis of spot ran at a low level in October and is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The agreement between China and the US is positive for CBOT soybeans, driving up the cost of imported soybeans in China and significantly boosting the price of soybean meal. Short - term support for CBOT soybeans is obvious, and soybean meal can be treated with a cautious bullish attitude [7][62]. - Strategy: (1) For spot traders, the basis will fluctuate narrowly in November; (2) For futures speculators, the 01 contract should be treated with cautious bullishness [7][63]. - Important Variables: The implementation of China - US trade, the resumption time of US reports and the adjustment of yield per unit, and the weather in Brazil [7][63] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Upstream: Planting and Export 3.1.1 Soybean Supply - US: Due to the government shutdown, the October USDA report is missing. According to the September report, the new - season US soybean planting area is about 81.1 million acres, with a year - on - year decrease of 600,000 acres. The harvest area is about 80.3 million acres, with a year - on - year decrease of 580,000 acres. The yield per unit is adjusted from 53.6 bushels to 53.5 bushels. The ending stocks of the 25/26 US soybean season are 300 million bushels. Considering the relatively low harvest area and dry weather in the main producing areas from August to September, there is a possibility of a downward adjustment of yield per unit and production [9]. - South America: The USDA maintains the production of this season's Brazilian soybeans at 169 million tons, with an expected increase to 175 million tons in the next season. The production of Argentina is 50.9 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.69 million tons [9]. - Growth Progress and Good - to - Excellent Rate: As of September 28, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 62%. As of October 24, the US soybean harvest rate was estimated to be between 80% - 88%. As of October 25, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 34.4%. The planting rate in Mato Grosso, the largest producing state, reached 60.05% as of October 24 [10]. - Weather: The US soybean harvest is nearing completion, and the impact of previous weather will be reflected after the resumption of reports. The market is focusing on the weather in Brazil. Overall, the sowing progress of the new season is expected to be normal [10]. 3.1.2 Exports of Major Producing Countries - Brazil: The USDA expects Brazil to export 102.1 million tons of soybeans in the 2024/25 season. In September, Brazil exported 7.398 million tons of soybeans, a year - on - year increase of 21.2%. ANEC expects exports in October to be around 7 million tons. After the China - US phased agreement, Brazilian soybean exports may decline to a relatively low level [17][20]. - US: The USDA expects the US to export 51.03 million tons of soybeans in the 2024/25 season. In July 2025, the US exported 1.751 million tons of soybeans, a year - on - year increase of 17%. If China purchases US soybeans as announced, US soybean exports are expected to remain stable, but the actual situation remains to be observed [21]. 3.2 Midstream: China's Soybean Import and Crushing 3.2.1 China's Soybean Import - In September, China imported 12.869 million tons of soybeans, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. As of the end of September in the 24/25 season, China's cumulative soybean imports were 1086.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. It is expected that this year will break the record of soybean import volume. The procurement volume in the fourth - quarter shipping period is insufficient, and the port soybean inventory will be high in the near future and then gradually decrease [30][32]. 3.2.2 China's Soybean Crushing and Inventory - Crushing Profit: In late October, the external CBOT soybeans fluctuated strongly, while the domestic soybean meal price was relatively weak, and the overall crushing profit weakened. As of October 30, the spot and disk crushing gross margins of Brazilian imported soybeans in November were - 207 yuan/ton and - 252 yuan/ton respectively; for US Gulf soybeans in November, the spot and disk crushing gross margins were - 237 yuan/ton and - 282 yuan/ton respectively [43]. - Crushing Volume and Operating Rate: As of the week of October 24, the actual operating rate of 111 oil mills was 66.39%, and the actual crushing volume was 2.0485 million tons. It is expected that the operating rate and crushing volume will decrease in the future [43]. - Soybean Inventory: As of October 24, the commercial inventory of soybeans in major domestic oil mills was 6.9349 million tons, a decrease of 2.3% from the previous week. The soybean inventory will remain high and enter the seasonal destocking stage after November [44]. 3.3 Downstream: Feed and Breeding 3.3.1 Trading and Inventory of Soybean Meal - As of October 24, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 940,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. In October, the trading of soybean meal was lackluster. Terminal demand is relatively stable, and future demand is generally optimistic [49]. 3.3.2 Pig Breeding - Breeding Profit: As of October 31, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 89.33 yuan/head, and the profit per purchased piglet was - 179.72 yuan/head [53]. - Pig Slaughter: From October to December this year, the month - on - month increase or decrease rates of pig slaughter are expected to be 3.1%, - 0.4%, and 0.5% respectively. From now until May next year, it will be basically stable or slightly increasing [53]. - Feed Production: In September, the national industrial feed production was 30.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. From January to September 2025, the total national industrial feed production was 246.53 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6% [54]. 3.3.3 Poultry Breeding - Broilers: At the end of October, the price of white - feather broilers was 7.26 yuan/kg, slightly stronger. The short - term market supply is sufficient, and the price will fluctuate at a low level [58]. - Laying Hens: In October, the breeding profit continued to be weak. As of the end of September, the monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.368 billion, a year - on - year increase of 6.0%. It is expected that the inventory of laying hens will remain high in the early fourth quarter and may decline at the end of the year [59]. 3.4 Later Outlook and Strategy - Outlook: The basis of spot is expected to fluctuate narrowly in November. The agreement between China and the US is positive for CBOT soybeans, driving up the price of soybean meal. Short - term support for CBOT soybeans is obvious, and soybean meal can be treated with a cautious bullish attitude [62]. - Strategy: (1) For spot traders, the basis will fluctuate narrowly in November; (2) For futures speculators, the 01 contract should be treated with cautious bullishness [63]. - Important Variables: The implementation of China - US trade, the resumption time of US reports and the adjustment of yield per unit, and the weather in Brazil [63]

1. Reported Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Fundamentals**: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25BP for the seventh time this year and will end balance - sheet reduction by the end of the year. Sino - US leaders' meeting eases trade restrictions. In the domestic market, Q3 GDP growth slowed to 4.8%, September CPI dropped 0.3% year - on - year, industrial added value rose 6.2% year - on - year and 0.6% month - on - month, and retail sales increased 3.0% year - on - year. The USDA halted data updates due to a government shutdown. Supply may be slightly tight in 2025/26 after the contraction of the high - yield expectation. Seed cotton acquisition costs are 6.0 - 6.3 yuan/kg, and the processing progress is slower than last year. Cotton commercial inventory is seasonally increasing, expected to be at a low level at the end of October. In September 2025, cotton imports continued to rise month - on - month, with 680,000 tons imported from January to September, a 69.9% year - on - year decrease. In October, the textile market had average trading, mainly for rigid demand. Terminal domestic textile and clothing consumption is resilient, while external demand is weak, but export expectations have improved after the tariff cut delay [6][57]. - **Outlook**: In November, during the peak processing period of Xinjiang cotton, trading may slowly rise due to a slight increase in production and hedging pressure. The acquisition price of seed cotton has rebounded, increasing processing costs and expected hedging pressure levels. Sino - US trade is in a phased easing period, and the export competitiveness of downstream textile and clothing enterprises may improve. Market expectations for new - year cotton demand have improved [6][57]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips, conduct 1 - 5 reverse spreads, and buy call options [6][57]. - **Important Variables**: Listing progress, industrial policies, and macro - policies [6][57]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In October, the main US cotton contract showed a V - shaped trend, with a 0.9% monthly decline. Due to the US government shutdown, multiple data stopped updating, and US cotton followed Zhengzhou cotton [8]. - Zhengzhou cotton rose after a decline in October, with a 3.4% monthly increase. The expected cotton production in the new year decreased due to lower yields in southern Xinjiang. The acquisition price of seed cotton rebounded, boosting the market, but there is still hedging pressure [10]. 3.2 Global Cotton Supply and Demand - The USDA's September report adjusted the 2025/26 global cotton supply - demand situation. US production increased by 0.2 million tons, India's ending inventory increased by 48,000 tons, China's ending inventory decreased by 229,000 tons, and Brazil remained unchanged. Globally, production increased by 231,000 tons to 2.5621 billion tons, trade volume increased by 52,000 tons to 1.9031 billion tons, consumption increased by 183,000 tons to 2.5872 billion tons, and ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 1.5924 billion tons, a 1.04% month - on - month decrease [12]. 3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand 3.3.1 New - Year Production Estimate - In September 2025, the China Cotton Association predicted an increase in national cotton production. The national cotton planting area was 44.823 million mu, a 1.8% year - on - year increase, and the expected total output was 7.278 million tons, a 9.2% year - on - year increase. Xinjiang's output was 6.972 million tons, a 10.1% year - on - year increase, while the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins saw output declines [17]. 3.3.2 Cotton Acquisition and Processing - As of late October, cotton picking and acquisition in Xinjiang were progressing smoothly. Due to lower - than - expected yields in southern Xinjiang, acquisition prices rose, with northern Xinjiang at 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg and southern Xinjiang at 6.3 - 6.4 yuan/kg. As of October 30, 2025, the national cumulative inspection was 1.68 million tons, with 1.6636 million tons in Xinjiang [19]. 3.3.3 Inventory - In mid - October, commercial cotton inventory was 1.7202 million tons, up 698,500 tons from the end of last month, and industrial inventory was 809,300 tons, down 36,200 tons. Commercial inventory is seasonally increasing, expected to be at a low level at the end of October. Industrial inventory decreased slightly, and yarn and fabric inventory days also decreased [23]. 3.3.4 Cotton Import Volume - In September 2025, 95,000 tons of cotton were imported, a 22,300 - ton year - on - year decrease and a 22,300 - ton month - on - month increase. From January to September, 680,800 tons were imported, a 69.9% year - on - year decrease [28]. 3.3.5 Textile Enterprise Processing - As of October 24, spinning mills' cotton inventory was 27.4 days, unchanged from last week; yarn inventory was 27.8 days, up 0.3 days; weaving mills' yarn inventory was 7.7 days, down 0.2 days; and cotton fabric inventory was 31.6 days, up 0.3 days. The yarn and fabric load indexes were 51.4% and 51.9% respectively. The cotton yarn market had average trading, and the cotton fabric market was dull [30]. 3.3.6 Textile Demand - In September 2025, retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 123.1 billion yuan, a 5.3% year - on - year increase. From January to September, cumulative retail sales were 1.0613 trillion yuan, a 3.8% year - on - year increase. In September, textile and clothing exports were 24.4 billion US dollars, a 1.5% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, cumulative exports were 221.7 billion US dollars, a 0.3% year - on - year decrease. Domestic demand is resilient, while external demand is weak, but export expectations have improved [46]. 3.4 Summary and Future Outlook The content is the same as the core views of the report [6][57].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall cotton harvest progress in Xinjiang has exceeded 80%. As of October 30, 2025, the cumulative national new - year cotton notarized inspection volume was 168 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 45.95%. New cotton supply will continue to increase, pressuring cotton prices. Downstream demand is relatively flat, and cloth mills' finished products are slightly accumulating inventory. Although the Sino - US trade situation is improving, the US still imposes higher tariffs on Chinese textile and clothing exports than on Southeast Asian countries [1]. - In the short - term, the output in southern Xinjiang is lower than expected, and the new cotton purchase price is relatively firm. There is still hedging pressure around 13,600 - 13,800, and downstream demand is weak, lacking upward momentum for cotton prices. In the long - term, domestic textile production capacity has expanded significantly, increasing the rigid demand for cotton. Although domestic cotton production has increased, there is still a need to import foreign cotton, but the probability of further increasing import quotas is low, so the new - year domestic cotton supply and demand may still be tight [3][16]. - The trend of cotton prices is expected to be a wide - range shock, with the CF2601 contract in the range of 13,400 - 13,800. Short - term short - selling of CF2601 and long - term long - position layout of CF2605 at low levels are recommended. Pay attention to the CF1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity and the opportunity to widen the cotton - yarn spread [22]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply side: The overall cotton harvest progress in Xinjiang is over 80%, and new cotton supply is increasing. The purchase price in southern Xinjiang is relatively firm, while that in northern Xinjiang has slightly decreased [1]. - Demand side: Downstream load is basically stable. Some yarn mills are making price - based purchases, but overall demand is flat, and cloth mills' finished products are accumulating inventory. The US still imposes 35% - 50% tariffs on Chinese textile and clothing exports [1]. - Near - term trading logic: Southern Xinjiang's output is lower than expected, and the purchase price is firm. There is still hedging pressure around 13,600 - 13,800, and downstream demand is weak [3]. - Long - term trading logic: Domestic textile production capacity has expanded, increasing cotton demand. Although domestic production has increased, there is a need to import foreign cotton, but the probability of increasing import quotas is low, so supply and demand may be tight [16]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Market trend: Wide - range shock, with the CF2601 contract in the range of 13,400 - 13,800. - Strategy: Short - term short - selling of CF2601, long - term long - position layout of CF2605 at low levels. Pay attention to the CF1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity and the opportunity to widen the cotton - yarn spread [22]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range forecast: The monthly price range of cotton is 13,400 - 13,800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0767 and a historical 3 - year percentile of 0.153 [20]. - Risk management strategies: For inventory management, short Zhengzhou cotton futures and sell call options. For procurement management, buy Zhengzhou cotton futures and sell put options [20]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Futures data: Zhengzhou cotton 01, 05, and 09 contracts all rose slightly this week. - Spot data: CC Index 3128B, 2227B, and 2129B all rose slightly. - Spread data: CF1 - 5 spread was - 10, CF5 - 9 spread was - 150, and CF9 - 1 spread was 160. - Import price: FC Index M rose by 1.33%, and FCY Index C32s fell by 0.13%. - Yarn data: Futures and spot prices of yarn both rose slightly [21][23]. 2. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: The US canceled the 10% fentanyl tariff on Chinese goods and suspended the 24% reciprocal tariff for another year in the new round of Sino - US consultations. As of October 23, the national new cotton picking, delivery, processing, and sales rates all increased year - on - year. In September, China's clothing and textile retail sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month. In September 2025, cotton product exports and Japan's clothing imports increased [23][24]. - Negative information: As of October 15, the national commercial cotton inventory increased by 68.37% compared to the end of September [25]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Follow the progress of cotton processing and production determination in Xinjiang. Pay attention to the release of the USDA report, US cotton seedling conditions, and export situation [26]. 3. Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend and capital movement: Zhengzhou cotton tried to rise this week but lacked momentum. The 01 contract's positions decreased, and market sentiment was cautious [37]. - Month - spread structure: The current cotton month - spread shows a contango structure starting from the 01 contract. Near - month contracts are relatively weak due to increased supply and hedging pressure, while far - month contracts are expected to have tight supply and demand at the end of the year. After Sino - US consultations, the near - month trend was slightly stronger, but the overall C structure remained, and there is still pressure above the 01 contract [40]. - Basis structure: This week, as Zhengzhou cotton rebounded and new cotton supply increased, the basis further declined. The basis of the same - quality spot is between CF01 + 1000 - 1350 [44]. 4. Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Downstream Spinning Profit Tracking - Xinjiang yarn mills have cost advantages and maintain certain profits, while inland mills were slightly in the red in the third quarter. Currently, yarn prices are basically stable, new cotton purchase prices are firm, and the immediate spinning profit of domestic yarn mills has slightly declined [46]. 4.2 Import Profit Tracking - China is a large cotton importer. This year, cotton import profits are considerable, but the import quota is low. The additional 200,000 - ton sliding - scale tariff quota issued in August has limited impact on the market. In September 2025, China's cotton imports were 1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 300,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 200,000 tons [48]. 5. Supply and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - New - year Xinjiang cotton is gradually coming onto the market. A bumper harvest is basically certain, but the output increase may narrow due to lower yields in southern Xinjiang and lower lint percentage in most areas. It is tentatively estimated that the new - year cotton import volume will be 1.1 million tons. Domestic cotton consumption is not overly pessimistic due to the expansion of Xinjiang's spinning capacity and high operating rates [51].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that China is adopting a tougher stance in negotiations compared to the first Trump administration, requiring corresponding returns for any concessions made [2] - On October 30, the leaders of China and the U.S. reached a consensus to not expand high tariffs and export controls, although fundamental issues remain unresolved [2] - Both countries are in a precarious state, maintaining pressure while showing signs of easing tensions [2] Group 2 - China has postponed the new rare earth export controls originally set for December 1 by one year [4] - The U.S. has delayed its effective embargo measures on subsidiary companies and the imposition of "port fees" on Chinese vessels for one year, while China has also postponed its countermeasures for the same duration [6] - Trump expressed confidence in the outcomes of the summit, claiming that all issues reached consensus, yet underlying instability factors persist [6]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The crude oil market faces medium - term supply - demand pressure due to OPEC+ production increases, although short - term support exists from Sino - US trade war easing [2]. - Precious metals are in a high - level volatile platform, and investors should wait for a stable and low - volatility entry opportunity [3]. Summary by Category - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ may increase the December production quota by 137,000 barrels per day on November 2nd, and the market has a downward risk despite short - term support [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The Fed cut interest rates as expected, but Powell's hawkish stance and policy divergence among officials, along with Sino - US tariff cuts, lead to market sentiment swings [3]. - **Copper**: After hitting a record high, the copper price has a short - term callback, but the long - term potential remains, and bulls can hold at 86,500 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term trend is slightly bullish, but the upside space is limited due to general domestic inventory and consumption [5]. - **Zinc**: The LME zinc inventory is low, supporting the high - level operation of LME zinc, but there is short - term callback pressure. The export window of zinc ingots is open, and the market expects an increase in exports in November [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel market is weak, with high - nickel pig iron prices falling and inventories changing [10]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are expected to be short - term bearish, and investors can hold short positions based on 285,000 [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price is strong, and the market is concerned about inventory reduction and policy increments, with a short - term bullish and volatile outlook [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price has a slight increase, but the short - term upside space is limited due to potential supply and demand weakening [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price is volatile, and the market needs to wait for the implementation of enterprise production cuts in November to improve the supply - demand pattern [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipment is high, and the demand support for prices is weakening. The market is expected to be in high - level oscillation [16]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: There is an expectation of a third price increase, but the coking profit is average, and the market should pay attention to the impact of Sino - US leader negotiations [17][18]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The demand for ironmaking maintains a high level, but the iron production in Tangshan may decline. The supply and demand of both are relatively stable [19][20]. Group 2: Chemicals Core Views - Most chemical products face various supply - demand and cost - related challenges, with different price trends. Summary by Category - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil's support may be unsustainable, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. Low - sulfur fuel oil is weak, but there may be supply contractions [22]. - **Asphalt**: The "peak season" demand is weaker than expected, and the long - term de - stocking slowdown limits the upside space [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The fundamentals are improving, and the near - month contract is in a slightly bullish oscillation [24]. - **Urea**: The supply exceeds demand, but demand and cost provide some support, and the short - term price is low [25]. - **Methanol**: The near - term port inventory pressure is high, and the demand is weak, but it may gradually stop falling and stabilize [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: The import volume is high, and the market is under pressure. The focus is on port inventory accumulation [27]. - **Styrene**: The price may continue to be weak due to cost and inventory concerns [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The cost support weakens, and the downstream demand decreases, leading to price declines or narrow - range adjustments [29]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC has cost support but weak fundamentals, while caustic soda is in a state of inventory accumulation and price decline [30]. - **PX and PTA**: The supply of both is increasing, and the market is in a weak oscillation without more positive news [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply and demand are expected to lead to inventory accumulation, and the price follows the market decline [32]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber may face inventory accumulation in November, and bottle - chip demand is weakening [33]. - **Glass**: The market is in a weak situation, and the price decline space is limited at a low valuation [34]. - **Natural Rubber, Synthetic Rubber, etc.**: The strategy is bullish, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities should be noted [35]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing, and the long - term is in a supply - surplus pattern, with a strategy of shorting at high prices [36]. Group 3: Agricultural Products Core Views - Sino - US trade relations affect the agricultural product market, and the supply - demand situation of each product varies. Summary by Category - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Sino - US trade is easing, and the market should pay attention to policies on US soybean imports and price quotes [37]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: In the short term, soybean meal is expected to be stronger than oil, and attention should be paid to palm oil supply and Sino - US soybean trade [38]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The uncertainty of rapeseed - related trade is high, and rapeseed meal is expected to rebound in the short term while rapeseed oil is under pressure [39]. - **Corn**: The supply is abundant, and the price may continue to be weak at the bottom. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade and corn imports [41]. - **Hogs**: The futures price is falling due to potential supply pressure, and there may be a second bottom - testing next year [42]. - **Eggs**: The price is supported by rising vegetable prices, and the futures price is rising. Wait for a short - selling opportunity in the fourth quarter [43]. - **Cotton**: The new cotton cost provides some support, but the market is in a weak peak season. The short - term rise is a rebound with limited space [44]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic market focuses on the new - season sugar production estimate [45]. - **Apples**: High - quality apples have stable high prices, but low - quality apples may cause inventory pressure later [46]. - **Timber**: The low inventory supports the price, but the supply and demand situation is complex [47]. - **Pulp**: The port inventory is high, the supply is loose, and the demand is average. The operation is mainly short - term or wait - and - see [48]. Group 4: Financial Products Core Views - The A - share market may maintain a relatively strong pattern in the medium term, and the bond market is in a repair stage. Summary by Category - **Stock Index**: The A - share market fell with technology stocks adjusting. The Sino - US economic and trade negotiation results are positive for the medium - term market sentiment, and the focus should be on the technology growth sector [49]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bond futures are slightly bullish. The Japanese central bank may raise interest rates, and the domestic bond market is entering a repair stage [50].

Macro Strategy - The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Trump on October 30 resulted in a series of agreements aimed at easing trade tensions, which is expected to boost short-term market sentiment [2][3]. - Key outcomes include the cancellation of the 10% "fentanyl tariff" by the US and a one-year suspension of the 24% "reciprocal tariff" on Chinese goods, with corresponding adjustments from China [2][3]. - The US will also pause the implementation of its export control rules for one year, while China will suspend its related measures, indicating a temporary easing of restrictions [2][3]. - The meeting lasted approximately 1 hour and 40 minutes, shorter than the market's expectation of 3-4 hours, which may indicate ongoing uncertainties in the trade relationship [3][5]. Market Impact Analysis - The agreements are expected to enhance market risk appetite and attract global capital to reallocate into Chinese assets, particularly benefiting sectors with high export ratios to the US, such as consumer electronics, home appliances, and textiles [6]. - The technology sector, especially semiconductors and AI, may see valuation recovery due to the suspension of export controls, while the shipping and shipbuilding sectors will benefit from the pause in the US's 301 investigations [6]. - The overall improvement in the economic environment is likely to boost confidence in US-listed Chinese companies, particularly in relation to the TikTok issue [6][7]. Key Areas of Focus - Tariff adjustments are expected to directly benefit export industries, leading to reduced costs and improved profit margins for companies with significant US export business [7]. - The suspension of export controls will positively impact high-tech industries, reducing uncertainties in the global semiconductor and electric vehicle supply chains [7]. - The pause in the 301 investigations will alleviate pressure on China's shipping, port machinery, and logistics companies, stabilizing global shipping prices and supply chains [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall Market**: The market is influenced by multiple factors including geopolitical events, trade relations, and supply - demand dynamics. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders has brought positive signals to the market, but various commodities still face different supply - demand situations and price trends [2][21][37]. - **Commodities**: Different commodities show diverse price trends. Some are under pressure due to supply surpluses, while others are supported by factors such as demand recovery or supply shortages. The report provides specific analysis and trading suggestions for each commodity. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices fluctuated. Brent 12 - contract fell 0.28%. The mid - term supply - demand pressure on crude oil remains due to OPEC +'s continuous production increase, but the easing of the Sino - US trade war provides short - term support. There is still a downside risk [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil followed the crude oil's oscillating trend. High - sulfur fuel oil's support may be limited in the long - term, and the mid - term supply pattern is expected to be loose. Low - sulfur fuel oil is generally weak, but supply may contract due to refinery incidents. There are opportunities to go long on the high - low sulfur spread [22]. - **LPG**: The near - month LPG contract continued to be strong. The decrease in supply and increase in demand due to improved chemical profits and cold weather support the price [24]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals rebounded. The Fed's rate cut and Powell's hawkish remarks, along with the Sino - US tariff reduction, led to volatile market sentiment. Wait for the market to stabilize before participating [3]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: After reaching a record high, copper prices pulled back. The long - position can be held above 86,500 [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated. The short - term trend is slightly strong, but the upside space is limited [5]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory is at a low level, supporting the high - level operation of LME zinc. There is a short - term callback pressure on the external market. Zinc ingot exports are expected to increase, and it is not recommended to short - sell Shanghai zinc in the fourth quarter [8]. - **Lead**: High lead prices suppress downstream demand. However, LME lead is in the process of destocking, and there may be opportunities for cross - market positive arbitrage [9]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices are weak, with the center of gravity tending to move down due to over - supply in the industry [10]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are expected to be short - sold, and the short - position can be held below 285,000 [11]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is in surplus, and the price is weak with limited rebound space [7]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the price of aluminum and is difficult to have an independent market due to high inventory levels [6]. Chemicals - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC has recovered from a low level, but the fundamental situation is still weak. Caustic soda continues to accumulate inventory, and the price is expected to be low [30]. - **PX & PTA**: Supply is increasing, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. The anti - arbitrage strategy is recommended [31]. - **Methanol**: The near - term port inventory pressure is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly but may gradually stop falling [26]. - **Urea**: The supply exceeds demand, but demand and cost support the price. The short - term market is expected to operate at a low level [25]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the trade situation has improved. Domestic soybean arrivals are sufficient, and bean meal inventory has decreased slightly. Pay attention to policies on US soybean imports [37]. - **Corn**: The supply of new corn in the Northeast is increasing, and the price is under pressure. Pay attention to the import situation after the Sino - US trade improvement [41]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and Zhengzhou cotton also declined slightly. New cotton costs have increased, providing some support, but the market is still cautious due to weak demand [44]. - **Sugar**: International sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic market focuses on the new - season output forecast. The output expectation in Guangxi is relatively good [45]. Others - **Shipping**: The current booking demand in November is weak, but the cargo volume is expected to recover in late November. Airlines may raise prices, and it is advisable to go long on the freight index of container shipping (European line) at low levels [21]. - **Equity Market**: A - shares fell with heavy volume, and futures indices also declined. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations have positive effects on the medium - term market sentiment. Focus on the technology - growth sector [49]. - **Bond Market**: Treasury bond futures oscillated strongly. The bond market is entering a recovery phase, and the steepening of the yield curve is expected to end [50].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, and non-ferrous metals. It assesses market trends, fundamental factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies based on the current market situation [20][23][26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Investment Logic**: On Thursday, the stock index fluctuated again. In the morning, the market was strong, but in the afternoon, it dived and then oscillated downward. Due to investors' profit - taking and concerns about the technology stocks, the short - term stock index will fluctuate again and wait for re - pricing after the quarterly reports [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Buy on dips without chasing high prices; Arbitrage: IM\IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; Options: Bull spread on dips [22]. Treasury Futures - **Investment Logic**: On Thursday, most treasury futures closed higher. The central bank's net injection of short - term liquidity eased the market's funds. The long - end may catch up in price, and the market should be cautious about chasing the TS contract [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Try to go long on the TL contract on dips; Arbitrage: Pay attention to potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities [24]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Investment Logic**: Trade relations are improving, which benefits US soybeans. However, the international soybean supply is abundant, and the domestic soybean meal supply has improved, with pressure on prices. Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Slowly build short positions in far - month contracts; Arbitrage: Try M35 reverse arbitrage; Options: Sell strangle strategy [28]. Sugar - **Investment Logic**: Internationally, the global sugar production is increasing, and the Brazilian sugar production is expected to be high. The ethanol's support for sugar has weakened, and the international sugar price is bearish. Domestically, the increase in sugar production may be less than expected, and the suspension of some imports may support the price in the short term [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The international sugar price is bearish, and the domestic market may be slightly stronger in the short term. Consider shorting on rallies; Arbitrage: Short US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar; Options: Wait and see [30]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Investment Logic**: High - frequency data shows that the production and export growth of Malaysian palm oil in October have declined, and it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory slightly. Domestic soybean oil may gradually reduce inventory, and rapeseed oil is gradually de - stocking. The oil market is in a bottom - grinding stage [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consider going long on dips; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [34]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Investment Logic**: The US corn futures have declined, and the US corn production is at a high level. The supply of Northeast Chinese corn has increased, and the price is weak. The North China corn price has stabilized and rebounded. The 01 contract of corn is expected to fluctuate weakly [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Go long on the 12 - contract of US corn on dips, go long on the 01 - contract of Chinese corn lightly, and try to go long on the 05 and 07 - contracts of Chinese corn in the long - term; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [36]. Live Pigs - **Investment Logic**: The overall supply pressure of live pigs still exists, although the scale of enterprise slaughter has decreased, and the number of secondary fattening has increased, which has a certain supporting effect on the price. The pig price is expected to be under pressure [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consider building a small number of short positions; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell strangle strategy [38]. Peanuts - **Investment Logic**: Peanut prices have stabilized. The supply of imported peanuts has decreased, and the prices of peanut oil and peanut meal are stable. The oil mills have not purchased in large quantities. The 01 - contract of peanuts is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Try to go long on the 01 and 05 - contracts of peanuts lightly; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [42]. Eggs - **Investment Logic**: The number of laying hens is still at a high level, and the demand is average. The egg price is expected to be weak. Recently, the increase in the number of culled chickens and downstream replenishment have led to a slight rebound in the spot price. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consider closing out previous short positions and wait and see; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [47]. Apples - **Investment Logic**: The quality of new - season apples is poor, the excellent fruit rate is low, and the cost of making warehouse receipts is high. The market is worried about the short shelf - life of cold - stored apples. The expected low storage volume may support the price, but the upward space is limited [51]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consider closing out previous long positions and wait and see; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [51]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Investment Logic**: The cotton purchase is at its peak, and the purchase price is stable with a slight increase. The demand has not changed much. The improvement in Sino - US relations may support the Zhengzhou cotton price, which is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger [55]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The US cotton is expected to fluctuate, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [55]. Black Metals Steel - **Investment Logic**: The night - trading steel price fluctuated weakly. This week, the steel production recovery accelerated, and the demand continued to recover, with an accelerated inventory reduction. However, there are still pressures from high plate inventory, slow capital release in the fourth quarter, and the fading macro - influence [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Maintain range - bound fluctuations; Arbitrage: Consider going long on the hot - rolled coil and short on the rebar spread; Options: Wait and see [59]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Investment Logic**: The current macro - sentiment is positive, and the coking coal fundamentals are good, but the steel demand is uncertain, which restricts the upward space of raw materials. It is expected to fluctuate in the near future, and it is recommended to wait for dips to go long [61]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait for dips to go long; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [61]. Iron Ore - **Investment Logic**: The iron ore price fell at night. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weakening domestically. The iron ore price is expected to be under pressure at a high level [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Bearish at a high level; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [64]. Ferroalloys - **Investment Logic**: The market sentiment has cooled down. The supply and demand pressures of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese still exist. They can continue to be used as short - side configurations in the sector [65]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Continue as short - side configurations; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [66]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - **Investment Logic**: There are both bullish and bearish factors in the precious metals market. The market is expected to enter a high - level shock adjustment period in the short term [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold long positions in Shanghai gold and silver cautiously; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [71]. Copper - **Investment Logic**: Macro - factors are not favorable, and the supply side of copper mines has more disturbances. The supply is relatively tight, and the consumption is weak. The copper price has a short - term correction [73]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The short - term copper price corrects slightly, pay attention to support and resistance levels, and go long on dips in the long term; Arbitrage: Hold cross - market cash - and - carry arbitrage and consider cross - period cash - and - carry arbitrage after domestic inventory decline; Options: Wait and see [74]. Alumina - **Investment Logic**: The supply and demand of alumina are still in significant surplus, but there are expectations of production cuts. The price rebounds slightly at a low level, but there are still pressures on the rebound amplitude [77]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The price will fluctuate at a low level; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [77]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Investment Logic**: The macro - situation is uncertain, but the Sino - US economic and trade consensus is positive. The overseas supply is tight, and the domestic consumption is resilient. The aluminum price is expected to rise after the market sentiment stabilizes [80]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The aluminum price is expected to rise after the market sentiment stabilizes; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [80]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Investment Logic**: The macro - expectations are volatile. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, the demand is resilient, and the price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots will maintain a strong shock [85]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The aluminum alloy price will rise with the aluminum price; Arbitrage: Consider long AD and short AL arbitrage; Options: Wait and see [85]. Zinc - **Investment Logic**: The domestic zinc concentrate market is short of supply, and some smelters may reduce production in November. The consumption is expected to weaken, but the export window is open, which can relieve the supply - surplus situation [90]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold profitable long positions and pay attention to export volume and new smelter production; Arbitrage: Consider buying SHFE and selling LME in advance according to export conditions; Options: Wait and see [90]. Lead - **Investment Logic**: Some lead - storage enterprises have reduced production due to high lead prices and high downstream inventory. The supply of recycled lead may increase, and the lead price may decline [94]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see, and consider shorting if the production of recycled lead increases; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [94]. Nickel - **Investment Logic**: The supply and demand of nickel are loose, but there is cost support. The nickel price will maintain a range - bound operation [98]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wide - range shock; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell the 2512 - contract strangle combination [99]. Stainless Steel - **Investment Logic**: The supply and demand of stainless steel are weak, and it is difficult to obtain production profits. The social inventory has increased slightly [101]. - **No trading strategy content provided specifically for the logic above, but based on the general format, it should be summarized if available.**

Trade Relations - The meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi resulted in a trade truce, with the U.S. cutting fentanyl tariffs from 20% to 10%, leading to a cumulative tariff on China of 47% [3][4] - China has committed to purchasing soybeans, although no specific dollar amount or tonnage was provided, creating uncertainty in the grain market [5][6] - China is expected to reopen rare earth exports for one year and potentially reduce chemicals needed for fentanyl production [4][8] Market Reactions - The market reaction has been mixed, with some fluctuations in equity and commodity markets following the meeting [10][13] - Rare earth stocks are experiencing varied performance, with MP Materials down approximately 0.7% [14] - The agricultural sector is under scrutiny, particularly regarding China's past failures to meet soybean purchase commitments under previous agreements [11][12] Energy Sector - There are discussions about China potentially buying U.S. oil, especially from Alaska, but current inventory levels in China are high, leading to skepticism about immediate purchases [21][22] - OPEC Plus may increase production due to supply disruptions from Russian sanctions, aiming to regain market share and manage U.S. shale production [24] - Geopolitical dynamics, including military movements in Venezuela, could impact oil resources and OPEC Plus's influence [25][26]