1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: BR Rubber [1] - **Bearish**: Industrial Silicon, Palm Oil [1] - **Neutral (Oscillation)**: Bonds, Agricultural Products, Alumina, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium), Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Soybeans, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, Ethylene Glycol, Benzene - Naphtha, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the stock index is expected to continue its weak trend, but the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of the stock index next year [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks [1] - The market sentiment is volatile, and there are opportunities to go long at low levels for some products [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Short - term weak operation, long - term upward potential. Investors can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment period [1] - **Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned. Pay attention to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Aluminum**: High - level wide - range oscillation due to limited industrial drive and fluctuating macro sentiment [1] - **Alumina**: Weak domestic fundamentals, short - term price rebound but limited upward drive [1] - **Zinc**: Fundamentals improved, cost center shifted up, but price is under pressure. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1] - **Nickel**: After a sharp decline, there is a demand for position - reduction repair. Short - term trading is recommended, and the long - term supply of primary nickel is in surplus [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term trading is recommended, waiting for opportunities to sell on rallies [1] - **Tin**: Short - term oscillation, long - term bullish. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities during corrections [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Supported by the cooling of the US CPI in November, but short - term volatility risks need to be vigilant [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Bearish due to increased production in the northwest, reduced production in the southwest, and decreased production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December [1] - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, marginal improvement in terminal installation in the fourth quarter, and strong price - holding and low - delivery willingness of large enterprises [1] - **Lithium**: In the traditional peak season of new energy vehicles, with strong energy - storage demand, increased production on the supply side, and the potential to break through previous highs [1] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Roll over and take profits on cash - and - carry positions. Valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - **Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon**: Prices are under pressure due to weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation [1] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Supply and demand provide support, valuation is low, but short - term price fluctuations are strong [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After a decline, there are signs of stabilization. Pay attention to winter - storage replenishment by downstream enterprises this week [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Short - term short - selling is recommended due to continuous negative high - frequency data and high pressure on the origin [1] - **Soybeans**: Pay attention to the negative impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: It is recommended to short the 05 contract as the near - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be exhausted [1] - **Cotton**: The market is currently supported but lacks a driving force. Pay attention to relevant policies and market conditions in the future [1] - **Sugar**: There is a consensus on short - selling, but there is strong cost support below. Pay attention to changes in the capital side [1] - **Wheat and Corn**: The short - term decline is limited by farmers' price - holding sentiment and downstream stocking demand before the Spring Festival [1] - **Pulp**: Unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see, and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread [1] - **Logs**: The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly as it approaches the delivery month [1] - **Live Pigs**: Production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemical Industry - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: Affected by OPEC+ production - suspension, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports [1] - **Bitumen**: Follows crude oil in the short term, with high profit and possible falsification of the 14th - Five - Year Plan's rush - demand [1] - **BR Rubber**: Bullish due to improved cost - side support, increased sales, and high operating rates [1] - **PTA and Short - Fiber**: The PTA device operates at a high load, and short - fiber prices follow costs closely [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices decline due to inventory accumulation and weakening cost support [1] - **Benzene - Naphtha**: There is slight cost - side support, but overall production economy is negative, and inventory is high [1] - **Urea, Propylene, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: Prices oscillate due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, cost changes, and reduced anti - involution sentiment [1] - **LPG**: The market is affected by geopolitical factors, and prices oscillate after a decline. Pay attention to the impact of natural gas on near - month prices [1] Other - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price increase in December was less than expected, and the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose [1]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - All recommended investment stances for corn, live pigs, and eggs are "wait - and - see" [1][3] 2. Report's Core View - For corn, in the short - term, the spot price fluctuates due to a mix of long and short factors, and the progress of farmers' grain sales should be monitored; in the medium - term, there is seasonal selling pressure before the Spring Festival after New Year's Day, and the upside of the spot price is limited, with a wide - range trading approach recommended; in the long - term, the pricing logic is import substitution plus planting cost, with a focus on policy guidance [1] - For live pigs, in the short - term, the approaching Winter Solstice boosts short - term stocking sentiment, but the upward space of pig prices is limited due to supply pressure; in the medium - term, the expected increase in supply before March next year restricts price increases, and the supply pressure may ease from April; in the long - term, supply pressure exists before September next year and may weaken after September if sow inventory continues to decline [1][3] - For eggs, in the short - term, egg prices operate in a low - level range, and attention should be paid to downstream consumption and inventory changes; in the medium - term, the supply pressure of eggs has not been fully released, and the continuous upward momentum of the spot is limited; in the long - term, the continuous expansion of egg - laying hen farming scale may limit the upward space driven by chicken culling [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn 3.1.1. Market Review - Last night, the corn futures fluctuated within a narrow range. As of the night - session close, the 2603 contract fell 0.27% to 2190 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.2. Important Information - The purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises in China were mainly weak and stable yesterday. The average purchase price in Northeast China was 2115 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and that in North China was 2271 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - The prices at north - south ports were slightly weaker and stable yesterday. The purchase price of second - grade corn with 15% moisture at Jinzhou Port was 2240 - 2250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the bulk grain transaction price at Shekou Port was 2400 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - On December 18, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1163 lots to 53277 lots compared with the previous trading day [1] - On December 18, the wheat - corn price difference in Shandong was 220 yuan/ton, narrowing by 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - China's corn imports in November 2025 totaled 560,000 tons, the highest this year. The cumulative imports from January to November were 1.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86.08%; the cumulative imports from October to November in the 2025/26 season were 920,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 67.27% [1] 3.1.3. Market Logic - In the short - term, the spot price fluctuates due to a mix of long and short factors, and the progress of farmers' grain sales should be monitored; in the medium - term, there is seasonal selling pressure before the Spring Festival after New Year's Day, and the upside of the spot price is limited. The auction of policy - sourced grains in the second quarter next year may form an effective supply; in the long - term, the pricing logic is import substitution plus planting cost, with a focus on policy guidance [1] 3.1.4. Trading Strategy - Adopt a range - trading approach in the medium - and long - term; currently, it is recommended to wait and see or focus on short - term trading. The support levels for the 2601 contract are 2200 - 2220, and those for the 2603 contract are 2180 - 2190 [1] Live Pigs 3.2.1. Market Review - Yesterday, live pig futures fluctuated weakly. The 2603 contract fell 1.18% to 11325 yuan/ton [1] 3.2.2. Important Information - The national average price of live pigs was 11.7 yuan/kg yesterday, up 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day. It is expected that the pig prices will rise and fall mixed this morning [1] - According to official data, the inventory of reproductive sows in October 2025 was 39.9 million, falling below 40 million for the first time in 17 months [1] - The number of new - born piglets increased month - on - month from January to September this year (only decreased in July), indicating an increasing trend in live pig slaughter before March next year; the number of new - born piglets decreased month - on - month in October, and the supply pressure may ease from April next year [1] - As of December 18, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 124.47 kg, an increase of 0.09 kg from the previous week [1] - On December 18, the price difference between fat and standard live pigs was 0.35 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] - On December 18, the number of live pig futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 823 lots [1] 3.2.3. Market Logic - In the short - term, the approaching Winter Solstice boosts short - term stocking sentiment, but the upward space of pig prices is limited due to supply pressure; in the medium - term, the expected increase in supply before March next year restricts price increases, and the supply pressure may ease from April; in the long - term, supply pressure exists before September next year and may weaken after September if sow inventory continues to decline [1][3] 3.2.4. Trading Strategy - The 2601 contract follows the basis - repair logic of spot trading, and attention should be paid to the impact of warehouse receipt quantity on the market; the 2603 contract's pressure has been verified and returns to range operation; the far - month contracts trade the expected difference in capacity reduction driven by policies. If the sow inventory continues to decline, low - buying opportunities after September next year can be considered [3] - The pressure level for the 2601 contract is 11400, and the support level moves down to 11000; the pressure levels for the 2603 contract are 11500 - 11600, and the short - term support level returns to 11200; the pressure level for the 2605 contract is 12000, and the support level is 11800; the pressure levels for the 2607 contract are 12700 - 12800, and the support level is 12500; the pressure level for the 2609 contract is 13600, and the short - term support level is 13400. Attention should be paid to the direction after the range breakout [3] Eggs 3.3.1. Market Review - Yesterday, egg futures showed a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength. The 2602 contract fell 0.48% to 2916 yuan/500KG [3] 3.3.2. Important Information - The spot price of eggs was mainly stable with a slight increase yesterday. The average price in the main production areas was 3.04 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day, and that in the main sales areas was 3.4 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [3] - The inventory was slightly increased and stable yesterday. The average inventory in the national production link was 1.01 days, an increase of 0.01 days from the previous day, and the inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, unchanged from the previous day [3] - In terms of culled chickens, the average price of Hy - Line brown old hens in the mainstream market was 3.94 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. As of December 18, the weekly culling age of old hens was 486 days, unchanged from the previous week [3] - According to Zhuochuang Information, the inventory of laying hens in November was about 1.352 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52% and a year - on - year increase of 5.30%. The theoretical estimated inventory of laying hens in December is 1.345 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52% [3] 3.3.3. Market Logic - In the short - term, egg prices operate in a low - level range, and attention should be paid to downstream consumption and inventory changes; in the medium - term, the supply pressure of eggs has not been fully released, and the continuous upward momentum of the spot is limited; in the long - term, the continuous expansion of egg - laying hen farming scale may limit the upward space driven by chicken culling [3] 3.3.4. Trading Strategy - Previously, it was continuously suggested to pay attention to the trading opportunities of the near - month contracts to collect the premium after the price increase. Currently, it is recommended to wait for the confirmation of inventory accumulation again and then consider short - selling opportunities for the near - month contracts. In the medium - and long - term, it is necessary to focus on whether the chicken culling behavior driven by low prices can continue and whether the culling intensity can start the actual capacity reduction, and then determine the trading direction for next year. Currently, it is difficult to effectively clear the capacity before the second quarter next year, and the supply pressure still exists. Whether the second quarter can be a turning point depends on the chicken culling situation in the first quarter [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-18 生猪备货开始，需求驱动反弹 油脂：昨日继续偏弱运行 蛋白粕：国储拍卖持续，双粕或震荡偏弱 玉米/淀粉：多空交织，盘面僵持 生猪：备货逐渐开始，需求驱动反弹 天然橡胶：关注短期压力位力度 合成橡胶：多头情绪延续偏强 棉花：政策端故事提振棉价 白糖：供应压力边际增大，糖价承压 纸浆：期货来回波动，现货持续走低 双胶纸：刚需购销为主，纸价平稳运行 原木：供应压力边际缓解，原木平稳运行为主 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 生猪观点：备货逐渐开始，需求驱动反弹 主要逻辑：冬至备货逐渐开始，需求阶段性改善，驱动猪价低位反弹，但 考虑到生猪供应压力依旧存在，价格波动区间预计有限。（1）供应：短 期，12月二育大猪开始出栏，据涌益监测，12月上旬二育存栏总量环比- 16.99%，大猪供应市场。中期，2025年上半年全国能繁母猪产能尚在高位 波动，并且1月~10月新生仔猪数量持续环比增加，按照养殖周期推算，预 计2026年4月之前商品猪出栏量持续过剩。长期，2025年三季度能繁母猪 产能开始出现去化 ...

华西证券主要观点如下： 事件 商务部2025年12月16日公布对原产于欧盟的进口相关猪肉及猪副产品反倾销调查的最终裁定，最终认定 原产于欧盟的进口相关猪肉及猪副产品存在倾销，国务院关税税则委员会根据商务部的建议作出决定， 自2025年12月17日起，对原产于欧盟的进口相关猪肉及猪副产品征收反倾销税。反倾销税率为 4.9%-19.8%。 欧盟为我国重要的猪肉进口来源，前三季度进口占比超过50% 2025年前十个月，中国进口相关猪肉及猪副产品193万吨，其中从欧盟进口99万吨，占比51%，欧盟成 员国西班牙为我国第一大猪肉及副产品进口国，前十个月进口46万吨，占比24%。前三季度我国猪肉产 量4368万吨，猪肉及副产品进口量176万吨，占产量比例4%，欧盟进口91万吨，进口占比51.49%，总产 量占比2.08%，反倾销裁定落地有望部分程度缓解国内猪肉供应压力。 智通财经APP获悉，华西证券发布研报称，反倾销税落地有望部分程度缓解国内供应压力，叠加亏损推 动的主动去产能和政策引导的被动去产能同时进行，看好产能去化带来的价格反转，继续推荐生猪养殖 板块，具体标的选择方面，推荐关注成本低、低负债且有成长性的优质标的， ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating for pig farming is "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - The final ruling on anti-dumping duties on EU pork imports is expected to alleviate domestic supply pressure to some extent, with anti-dumping tax rates set between 4.9% and 19.8% [2][5] - The EU is a significant source of pork imports for China, accounting for over 50% of imports in the first three quarters of 2025, with Spain being the largest supplier [3] - Domestic pig prices have been persistently low, leading to increased losses for farmers, with self-breeding farmers experiencing losses for 13 consecutive weeks as of mid-December 2025 [4] Summary by Sections Event Overview - The Ministry of Commerce announced the final ruling on anti-dumping investigations against EU pork imports, confirming the existence of dumping practices [2] Analysis and Judgment - In the first ten months of 2025, China imported 1.93 million tons of pork, with 990,000 tons from the EU, representing 51% of total imports [3] - The domestic pig farming sector is undergoing both active and passive capacity reduction due to ongoing losses and policy guidance, with the number of breeding sows decreasing to below 40 million [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on pig farming stocks, particularly those with low costs and strong growth potential, such as: 1. Lihua Co., which has seen a continuous decline in costs since 2024, with a target cost of 12 yuan/kg by year-end [5] 2. Muyuan Foods, which maintains profitability despite low pig prices and has a strong integrated business model [5] 3. Shuanghui Development, benefiting from stable meat product sales and expected cost advantages in 2025 [5]

养殖ETF（159865）跟踪的是中证畜牧指数（930707），该指数从沪深市场中选取业务涉及畜禽养殖、 饲料加工等领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映畜牧业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。中证畜牧 指数覆盖了畜禽养殖、饲料及动保等多个细分领域，具有较强的行业代表性。 注：数据来源wind，权重数据截至2025年9月15日，养殖ETF"含猪量"约60%意为生猪含量口径为申万三 级行业中涉及生猪养殖、畜禽饲料、动物保健III相关标的权重之和。规模数据和含猪量数据变化波动， 不预示未来表现。如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析 参考，不预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数 仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择 与风险等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 根据wind数据，养殖ETF（159865）盘中净流入2600万份，资金抢筹布局。 消息面，商务部2025年12月16日公布对原产于欧盟的进口相关猪肉及猪副产品反倾销调查的最终裁定， 最终认定原产于欧盟的进口相 ...

国泰期货认为，2025年四季度政策督促与市场亏损刺激产能去化，但是，仍未见恐慌情绪。伴随亏损加 剧及政策推进，未来有望初步体现去产能效果，供应总量同比转降。需求端，2026年上半年价格中枢较 低，但是，恰逢季节性淡季，亏损阶段行业现金流收紧，需求弹性减弱，若恐慌底出现后，2026年下半 年市场情绪回暖，博取周期反转的投机需求将得到提振，届时弹性或释放。 本次反倾销税政策的落地，为处于周期底部的生猪养殖业带来了明确的积极信号。投资布局上，建议遵 循"养殖先行，动保饲料随后"的产业链传导逻辑，并密切关注能繁母猪存栏、猪价及企业月度销售等高 频数据以验证趋势。 12月16日，商务部发布终裁公告，裁定原产于欧盟的进口相关猪肉及猪副产品存在倾销，并决定自2025 年12月17日起，对欧盟上述进口产品征收反倾销税，税率为4.9%-19.8%，实施期限5年。 商务部新闻发言人16日在答记者问时表示，当前，国内产业经营困难，要求保护的呼声强烈。在此背景 下，商务部依法依规开展调查，广泛听取各利害关系方意见，充分保障各方权利，客观、公平、公正得 出调查结论。裁决报告表明，自欧盟进口的相关猪肉及猪副产品存在倾销，给中国国内产业造 ...

鸡蛋：最近鸡蛋现货企稳，不过在价格逼近成本线后，上涨驱动逐渐走弱。 短期供应仍然宽松，需求在双节备货阶段尚无明显亮点，淘鸡方面虽然有一定产 能下降，但是总的仍然超出往年同期很多，预估节前很难出现趋势性行情。节后 如果淘鸡和存栏出现超淘，价格可能出现逐渐走出价格洼地的可能性，但是短期 内这种驱动暂时较弱，预估短期内震荡为主。 生猪：从 2025 年 7 月开始，生猪养殖行业步入去产能阶段，10 月末全国能 繁母猪存栏量降至 3990 万头，月环比下滑 1.1%，10 月产能去化有所提速。供应 宽松的格局难以迅速扭转，能繁母猪存栏绝对值仍处高位，仔猪供应充裕，这决 定了至少到 2026 年上半年，商品猪的理论供给量都将保持充裕。短期来说，数 据显示，12 月份规模企业计划出栏量环比增加约 3.2%，虽然按出栏天数折算的 日均量微降，但在行业普遍悲观预期下，整体出栏压力依然庞大。这意味着现在 甚至于 2 月前后，生猪现货供应压力仍然较大，不过近月存栏尤其是能繁殖母猪 存栏下降 ，让明年远月合约存在上涨的可能性，不过时间上至少在春节后，这 种价格才会在盘面上慢慢体现。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][35] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector experienced a slight decline, with the agricultural index down by 0.08%, ranking 10th among 31 primary industries [4][12] - The pig price is fluctuating at a low level, with expectations of continued capacity reduction due to oversupply [5][15] - The white feather chicken market shows stable chick prices and a slight increase in meat chicken prices, supported by holiday stocking [6][28] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural sector saw a minor decline, with the agricultural index down 0.08% [12] - The animal health and pig farming sectors led the gains due to ongoing low pig prices [13] 2. Livestock Industry Chain Tracking 2.1 Pigs - Pig prices are fluctuating around 11 CNY/kg, showing a trend of bottoming out [5][15] - Supply exceeds demand, with expectations of continued increases in pig output due to prior increases in piglet supply [15][18] - The industry is currently experiencing overall losses, with expectations that pig prices have not yet reached their lowest point [18] 2.2 White Feather Chicken - As of December 12, chick prices are stable at 3.7 CNY/chick, with an average profit of approximately 0.8 CNY per chick [6][28] - Meat chicken prices have increased by 1.39% to 3.65 CNY/jin, supported by holiday demand [6][28] 3. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices continue to decline, with an average price of 5393 CNY/ton as of December 12, down 56 CNY from the previous week [30] - Soybean prices have decreased, with Brazilian soybeans at 3762 CNY/ton and U.S. soybeans at 4329 CNY/ton, both down 2.1% [30] - Corn prices are rising, with an average price of 2299 CNY/ton, up 19 CNY from the previous week [30]

2025 年 12 月 15 日 政策与市场双轮驱动，有望迎周期拐点 ---2026 年生猪期货年度行情展望 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001894 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 报告导读： 货 研 究 所 我们的观点：2025 年产业新格局基本形成，集团延续增量趋势，育种端口利润扩大，规模场及散户部分转为专业育肥模式， 放养模式大幅扩张，市场灵活性再度增强，原料及管理的双驱动带动成本中枢进一步下移。2026 年上半年供应增量趋势难 改，现货价格将寻周期底，若跌破现金流成本，或刺激产能淘汰加速；2026 年下半年库存周期处于低位，三季度投机补库需 求托底，四季度常规需求抬升，价格中枢较上半年或上移，给出微利格局判断。 我们的逻辑：供给端，2025 年四季度政策督促与市场亏损刺激产能去化，但是，仍未见恐慌情绪，对于 2026 年三季度的整 体供应影响有限，伴随亏损加剧及政策推进，四季度有望初步体现去产能效果，供应总量同比转降；需求端，2026 年上半年 价格中枢较低，但是，恰逢季节性淡季，亏损阶段行业现金流收紧，需求弹 ...