Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in pig prices is driven by emotional factors and seasonal consumption recovery, with a focus on the sustainability of secondary fattening entry [2][3] Pig Farming Sector - The concentration of large pig sales has led to a decrease in large pig inventory, widening the price gap and increasing the enthusiasm for secondary fattening, with a sales proportion of 2.09% from October 11-20, up by 1.07 percentage points [1][2] - The national average pig price on October 24 was 11.81 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.63 yuan/kg week-on-week [2] - The average weight of pigs sold continues to decline, with an average weight of 127.90 kg for the week of October 24, down by 0.35 kg week-on-week [2] - Long-term expectations indicate a downward shift in pig prices, with increasing losses in farming and enhanced expectations for capacity reduction policies, which may lead to a long-term upward shift in the price center [1][3] Cattle Sector - Short-term prices for beef cattle have slightly declined, while long-term trends suggest a potential upward cycle for beef prices due to previous long-term losses leading to capacity clearance [4] Dairy Sector - Raw milk prices are currently at a cyclical low, with a price of 3.04 yuan/kg as of October 17, remaining stable week-on-week but down 31% from the cyclical high [4] - The ongoing losses in raw milk are expected to drive continued capacity reduction, potentially stabilizing prices in the future [4] Poultry Sector - The price of white chickens remains stable, with a price of 6.88 yuan/kg as of October 24, reflecting a slight increase week-on-week [5] - Egg prices have decreased, with an average price of 6.06 yuan/kg, while chick prices remain stable [5] Agricultural Products - Soybean meal prices have rebounded from a low, with a current price of 2984 yuan/ton as of October 24, down by 26 yuan/ton week-on-week [7] - The futures market for soybean meal showed a recovery, with the main contract closing at 2933 yuan/ton, up by 65 yuan/ton week-on-week [7]

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the first agricultural ETF (159275) showing significant gains, driven by rising prices in key components like edible fungi and poultry feed [1][3]. Market Performance - The agricultural ETF (159275) opened with a maximum intraday increase of 1.84%, closing with a gain of 1.53% [1]. - Key stocks in the sector, such as Zhongxing Junye and Tiankang Biology, saw substantial increases, with some stocks reaching their daily limit [1]. Price Trends - As of October 24, 2025, the average price of live pigs in China was 11.81 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.63 CNY/kg but a year-on-year decrease of 5.74 CNY/kg [2][3]. Industry Insights - Short-term price increases in pig farming are attributed to seasonal consumption recovery and heightened second fattening sentiment, while long-term trends indicate a downward shift in pig prices, leading to increased production losses [3]. - The agricultural sector's valuation remains relatively low, with the market's first agricultural ETF showing a price-to-book ratio of 2.53, placing it in the lower 25.1% of the past decade [3]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current low prices of live pigs are putting pressure on cash flow for farming entities, potentially accelerating capacity reduction in the industry [4]. - Continuous monitoring of breeding sow inventory is recommended as the industry faces significant losses and ongoing regulatory policies [4]. - The agricultural ETF (159275) is highlighted as a key investment opportunity, tracking the CSI Agricultural Index, with a focus on leading companies in the sector [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, hold a wait-and-see attitude towards treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Range trading for coking coal and rebar, sell call options for glass [1][7][8] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Cautiously hold long positions in copper on dips, buy aluminum on dips after pullbacks, hold a wait-and-see attitude or short nickel on rallies, range trade tin, gold, and silver [1][10][12] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and PTA are expected to fluctuate; short the 01 contract of soda ash [1][21][23][34] - **Cotton Spinning Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate strongly; PTA is expected to fluctuate at a low level; apples are expected to fluctuate strongly; dates are expected to fluctuate [1][37][38][39] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short pigs on rallies, short eggs on rallies, corn is expected to fluctuate weakly, bean meal is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and oils are expected to have limited corrections [1][40][42][46] Core Views - The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products, taking into account factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and policy changes [1][5][7] - It suggests specific trading strategies for each product, such as range trading, buying on dips, or selling call options [1][7][8] - The report also highlights key factors to watch for each product, including macro data, policy changes, and supply and demand dynamics [22][24][25] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and be bullish in the long term. Consider buying on dips [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to fluctuate. Hold a wait-and-see attitude and pay attention to important financial policies [1][5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Market sentiment is bullish, and prices are expected to be strong in the short term due to tight supply [6][7] - **Rebar**: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. Consider buying the RB2601 contract near 3000 [7] - **Glass**: Fundamental conditions are deteriorating, and the market is expected to be weak. Consider selling call options on the 01 contract [8][9] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Prices are expected to fluctuate higher in the short term. Consider holding a small long position on dips and avoid chasing highs [10] - **Aluminum**: Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. Consider taking profits on long positions on rallies and pay attention to tariff developments [12] - **Nickel**: Supply is expected to be abundant in the long term. Hold a wait-and-see attitude or short on rallies [17] - **Tin**: Prices are expected to fluctuate. Range trade with reference to the 12 contract's range of 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton [18] - **Gold and Silver**: Prices are expected to have support in the medium term but are in a short-term adjustment. Range trade and pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision [19][20] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Expected to fluctuate. The 01 contract is temporarily watched in the range of 4600 - 4800 [21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to fluctuate weakly. The 01 contract is temporarily watched for resistance at 2450 [23][24] - **Styrene**: Expected to fluctuate. Watch the range of 6300 - 6700 [24][25] - **Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate. Watch for support at 15,000 [26][27] - **Urea**: Expected to fluctuate. The 01 contract's range is referenced at 1600 - 1700 [28][29] - **Methanol**: Expected to fluctuate. The 01 contract's operating range is referenced at 2230 - 2330 [30][31] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to fluctuate weakly. The L2601 contract is watched for support at 7000, and the PP2601 contract is watched for support at 6600 [31][32] - **Soda Ash**: Adopt a short strategy for the 01 contract [34][35][36] Cotton Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Expected to fluctuate strongly due to positive factors such as production and trade negotiations [37] - **PTA**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level. Watch the range of 4400 - 4700 [37][38] - **Apples**: Prices are expected to be strong due to factors such as quality and delivery costs [38] - **Dates**: Expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to price changes after the new season's centralized listing [39] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Prices are under pressure in the medium term. Adopt a short strategy for the 01, 03, and 05 contracts and be cautious about bottom-fishing for the 07 and 09 contracts [40][41][42] - **Eggs**: Prices are expected to rebound under pressure. Short on rallies for the 12 and 01 contracts and pay attention to factors such as culling and policies [42] - **Corn**: Expected to fluctuate weakly. Adopt a short strategy for the 11 contract and watch for the 1 - 5 reverse spread [43][44] - **Bean Meal**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level. Consider buying on dips for the M2601 contract and use options to hedge risks [44][45][46] - **Oils**: Expected to have limited corrections. Wait for the correction to end and then go long for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils [46][51]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The pig farming sector is expected to benefit from recent policies and market forces that promote capacity reduction, leading to long-term performance improvements [3][36] - The current trend in grain prices is upward, indicating a favorable fundamental outlook for planting and seed industries, highlighting significant investment opportunities [3][36] - The pet food sector is experiencing growth, with increasing recognition of domestic brands and continuous market expansion [3][36] Summary by Relevant Sections Pig Farming - The current pig price is weak, with the average price for external three yuan pigs at 11.82 yuan/kg, a week-on-week increase of 5.82% [10][44] - The industry is entering a phase of capacity reduction, with pig prices expected to stabilize and potentially rise in the long term due to policy support [7][10] Poultry - White feather broiler prices have shown slight increases, with the current price at 6.88 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 0.15% [13][44] - The yellow feather broiler prices continue to remain strong, indicating a stable market environment [21][44] Feed Sector - Corn prices have decreased slightly, while soybean meal and wheat prices have increased, indicating a mixed market for feed ingredients [23][44] - The average price of pig feed is 3.37 yuan/kg, showing a slight decrease of 0.30% [44] Bulk Agricultural Products - Natural rubber prices have risen, with the current price at 15,335 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 4.36% [30][44] - The report indicates that the down cycle for bulk agricultural products is nearing its end, with signs of recovery in certain segments [30][44]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [71]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly decline of 1.36% [13][14]. - The report highlights a downward trend in pig prices, with the industry currently facing losses, and anticipates further price declines in the short term [3][20]. - The poultry sector shows signs of stabilization, particularly for yellow-feathered chickens, while white-feathered chickens continue to face price pressures [4][34]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, despite ongoing losses in the dairy sector [5][39]. - The planting industry is experiencing short-term supply pressures, but there is potential for improvement if grain production decreases significantly [6][46]. - Feed prices have stabilized, and the aquaculture sector is showing positive price trends for certain species [58]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2889.08 points, down 1.36% week-on-week, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.88% [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Swine Farming - National pig prices are at 11.82 yuan/kg, with a weekly increase of 5.82%. The average weight of pigs at slaughter is 127.90 kg, indicating high inventory levels despite price declines [20][21]. - The industry is expected to continue facing losses, with a recommendation to focus on low-cost, high-quality enterprises like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [3][21]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens is 6.88 yuan/kg, showing slight increases, while profits for parent stock chickens have improved [32][34]. - The report suggests that if consumer demand recovers, poultry prices may rebound [34]. 2.3 Livestock - Live cattle prices in Shandong are at 27.12 yuan/kg, with expectations for price increases as the consumption season approaches [5][39]. - The dairy sector is under pressure, but there are signs of potential recovery in raw milk prices next year [5][39]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are at 2174.29 yuan/ton, with fluctuations expected due to new crop releases and external uncertainties [45][46]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring grain prices and potential production declines [46]. 2.5 Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices remain stable, with specific fish prices showing upward trends, particularly for shrimp and certain fish species [58][63].

Group 1 - The agricultural and fishery ETF (159275) showed stable performance with a price increase of 0.4% and a trading volume of 696,000 yuan, bringing the fund's total size to 207 million yuan [1] - Key performing stocks included Honghui Fruits and Vegetables, Yisheng Shares, and Zhongxing Mushroom Industry, with increases of 3.28%, 3.13%, and 1.66% respectively [1] - Conversely, stocks such as Xiaoming Shares, COFCO Technology, and Zhongshui Fishery experienced declines of 4.07%, 3.53%, and 1.8% respectively [1] Group 2 - The 14th World Pig Industry Expo will be held from October 18 to 20, 2025, in Changsha, showcasing over 800 global enterprises and focusing on new technologies in the pig farming industry [1] - New Hope Liuhe invested 20 million yuan in September to establish a biotechnology company, enhancing its feed production and aquaculture business [1] - The pig farming industry is facing supply pressure with ongoing price declines, while poultry farming is impacted by avian influenza, creating uncertainty in breeding stock [2] Group 3 - The pig industry is entering a regulatory phase, with authorities aiming to stabilize prices through capacity reduction, although short-term pressures remain due to increased market supply [2] - The animal health sector is seeing improved competition dynamics, with clinical trials for African swine fever vaccines enhancing market expectations [2] - The pet food market is experiencing rapid growth, with domestic brands gaining traction despite limited impacts from tariffs on exports [2]

Group 1 - The agricultural sector is experiencing adjustments, yet funds are increasingly investing in related ETFs, with nearly 2 billion yuan accumulated since September 29 [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting on October 21 to enhance grain yield through technology integration and support for genetically modified crops, benefiting related seed and planting companies [1] - In September, listed pig companies reported a decline in sales revenue, totaling 21.647 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.74% and a month-on-month decrease of 10.77%, primarily due to falling pig prices [2] Group 2 - The average selling price of pigs dropped over 30% year-on-year and 5.42% month-on-month, reaching the lowest level since 2022 [2] - The Ministry of Agriculture and other authorities are focusing on controlling production capacity and reducing weight, which is expected to accelerate capacity reduction in the fourth quarter [2] - The current valuation of the agricultural sector is relatively low, with the agricultural ETF's price-to-book ratio at 2.54, indicating a good investment opportunity [2] Group 3 - Recent fluctuations in pork and piglet prices, along with increased slaughter rates, indicate a tightening supply in the pig farming industry [3] - The number of breeding sows is decreasing, and self-breeding operations are facing losses, leading to enhanced capacity reduction motivation [3] - In the livestock sector, beef prices are expected to rise in the medium to long term, while dairy prices remain low, and poultry prices are stable [3] Group 4 - The first agricultural ETF (159275) tracks the CSI Agricultural Index, with major holdings in leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, comprising about 40% of the index [4] - The ETF focuses on high-concentration industries, with over 90% of the top ten industries in agriculture, breeding, and feed sectors [4] - Investors can also access the agricultural ETF through linked funds for broader exposure [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The increase in the live hog 2601 contract price is a game between long - term inflection point expectations and short - term fundamentals. It's a pre - pricing of future supply - demand repair rather than a direct reflection of current fundamentals. One should closely monitor the speed of capacity reduction and the pace of consumption recovery, not over - chase the rise, and treat it as a short - term long position [3]. - The A - share market is expected to continue to fluctuate upward at a high level tomorrow [6]. - For gold, due to its large short - term fluctuations, it's advisable to avoid short - term long positions [10]. - For iron ore, the terminal situation has not actually improved after the holiday, iron water may decline periodically. If it breaks below the important support again, a large adjustment may occur. In the long - term, supply is expected to be loose with the commissioning of the Simandou project [14][15]. - For glass, daily melting changes little, inventory has continued to accumulate this week. The follow - up drive mainly lies in policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for the supply side. The market is currently in a pessimistic atmosphere [18][19]. - For eggs, the inventory of laying hens is increasing, and egg supply is sufficient, suppressing the price rebound. But considering the current price and cost, there is a short - term long opportunity [21]. - For pulp, the price in Shandong is stable today. China's cumulative pulp imports from January to September were 2706 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. Domestic port inventories remain high, and it is expected to run weakly, to be treated as low - level fluctuations [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - Live Hog 2601 Contract - The market shows a "near - weak, far - strong" pattern, and the 2601 contract has become the focus of capital game due to its anti - decline characteristics [3]. - The upward momentum comes from three aspects: capacity reduction expectations (the elimination rate of retail investors has risen to 8% in September), policy support signals (central reserve purchase and storage), and seasonal logic (anticipation of the consumption peak season before the 2026 Spring Festival) [3]. - There are short - term pressures: the current live hog inventory is 440 million, the proportion of large - weight hogs has reached a new high this year, the spot average price is only 10.72 yuan/kg, and the supply - demand pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. The bearish sentiment is dominant in the technical aspect, and the sustainability of the rise is to be tested [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The three major A - share indexes opened higher and moved higher today, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing with a mid -阳线. The trading volume increased compared with yesterday. It is expected to continue to fluctuate upward at a high level tomorrow [6]. Technical Analysis - Gold - Gold has large short - term fluctuations, and it's advisable to avoid short - term long positions [10]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - After the holiday, the terminal situation has not improved, and iron water may decline periodically. If it breaks below the important support again, a large adjustment may occur [14]. - In the short - term, there are long - term agreement negotiations and accident interferences on the supply side. In the long - term, the supply is expected to be loose with the commissioning of the Simandou project [15]. Technical Analysis - Glass - Daily melting changes little, inventory has continued to accumulate this week. The follow - up drive mainly lies in policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for the supply side. The market has broken below important support recently, and the pessimistic atmosphere is strong [18][19]. Technical Analysis - Eggs - The inventory of laying hens is increasing, and egg supply is sufficient, suppressing the price rebound. Based on the current price and cost, each laying hen is expected to lose 16.90 yuan in the future, presenting a short - term long opportunity [21]. Technical Analysis - Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong is stable today. China's cumulative pulp imports from January to September were 2706 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. Domestic port inventories remain high, and it is expected to run weakly, to be treated as low - level fluctuations [25].

畜牧板块今日早盘拉升，机构指出，当下"猪价+疫情+调控"三重因素加速生猪产能去化： 1、低猪价：产能去化的核心压力 （1）价格现状：自9月15日起，生猪养殖已进入亏损区间（行业平均成本约13元/公斤），目前每头育 肥猪亏损约250–300元。10月下旬全国生猪均价约11元/公斤，#为近6年同期最低点 （2）影响传导：仔猪市场崩溃，6–7公斤仔猪价格从上半年450–500元/头暴跌至150元/头（生产成本约 250–300元/头），出现"有价无市"和滞销。 （3）去化条件：上市猪企资产负债率普遍较高，若低价（11元/公斤）持续3–4个月，前期盈利消耗殆 尽，甚至导致连续亏损，则产能去化或将加速。 2、非洲猪瘟疫情：冬季催化因素 （1）季节性规律：病毒喜冷怕热，冬季（10月至次年1月）北方防控压力显著上升。 （2）当前风险主要有三：①抗体阳性率异常高；②天气异常加剧传播；③养殖端防控松懈：猪价低迷 或导致养殖户减少防疫投入。 3、产业政策：主动调控产能 （1）政策密集出台：2025年农业农村部联合多部门召开5次产能调控会议，最近一次（9月16日）要 求：①头部25家企业至2026年1月底减少能繁母猪100万头；② ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The increase in the price of the live hog 2601 contract is essentially the market's early pricing of the future supply - demand repair, a game between the long - term inflection point expectation and the short - term fundamentals. It is not advisable to chase the high, and it should be treated as a short - term long position. For other commodities, different trading suggestions are given based on their respective fundamentals and technical aspects [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - Live Hogs - The live hog 2601 contract price increase is due to the market's early pricing of future supply - demand repair. The market shows a "near - weak, far - strong" pattern, and the 2601 contract becomes the focus of capital game [3] - The upward momentum comes from three aspects: capacity reduction expectation (the elimination rate of retail investors has risen to 8% in September), policy support signals (central reserve purchases), and seasonal logic (anticipation of the consumption peak season before the Spring Festival in 2026) [3] - Short - term pressure exists as the current live hog inventory is 440 million, the proportion of large - weight hogs has reached a new high this year, the spot average price is only 10.72 yuan/kg, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. The technical side is still dominated by bears [3] Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The three major A - share indexes opened higher and went higher on Monday. The Shanghai Composite Index closed with a negative doji star. It is expected to continue high - level oscillations tomorrow [7][8] Technical Analysis - Gold - The external gold market has significantly adjusted, and Shanghai gold followed with a negative close. The volatility has increased. It is not advisable to chase long positions in the short term, and it is better to buy on dips [12] Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - After the holiday, the terminal situation has not actually improved, and molten iron production may decline periodically. Technically, if it breaks below the important support again, a large - scale adjustment may be triggered [15] - There are short - term supply disruptions due to long - term agreement negotiations and accidents, but in the long run, supply is expected to be loose with the commissioning of the Simandou project [16] Technical Analysis - Glass - The daily melting volume has little change, and inventory has continued to accumulate this week. The future driving factors mainly depend on policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for the supply side [20] - Technically, it has continuously declined and broken below important support, and the market sentiment is pessimistic [19] Technical Analysis - Eggs - The inventory of laying hens continues to increase, and the egg supply is relatively sufficient, suppressing the price rebound. However, according to the current price and cost, each laying hen is expected to lose 16.90 yuan in the future. There are short - term long - position opportunities [23] Technical Analysis - Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong has remained stable today. China's cumulative pulp imports from January to September were 2,706 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. The domestic port inventory remains high. The pulp market is expected to remain weak and should be treated as a low - level oscillation [26]