Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Northeast low - protein soybean prices are stable, supply is tightening, high - protein soybeans are in short supply. With 100% bid - ask success rate of 24099 tons of CGSCC soybeans, soybeans are expected to continue a strong and volatile trend [1] - In the corn market, farmers in Northeast China are more willing to sell after the twelfth lunar month. Feed and deep - processing plants have pre - holiday stocking needs, but with sufficient inventory, the market is cautious. Corn is expected to fluctuate widely before the Spring Festival, and buying on dips can be considered if there is a significant decline [1] - In the first half of 2026, the inventory of laying hens will decline monthly, with significant drops in March and April and a narrowing decline in May. Due to a marginal improvement in inventory, excessive short - selling is not recommended [2] - At the end of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows decreased by 2.9%, and the inventory of live pigs increased by 0.5%. The supply of live pigs around the Spring Festival is expected to be large, and the near - term and spot prices are unlikely to rise continuously. The far - term market depends on recent capacity reduction and the number of breeding sows [2][3] Summary by Related Categories Soybean - Northeast low - protein soybean prices are stable, high - protein soybeans are in short supply, with some 39% protein soybeans at around 2.2 yuan per catty. The 100% bid - ask success rate of 24099 tons of CGSCC soybeans shows market demand support, and soybeans are expected to be strongly volatile [1] Corn - In Northeast China, farmers' willingness to sell increases after the twelfth lunar month, and feed and deep - processing plants have pre - holiday stocking needs. However, with sufficient inventory (more than 30 days), the market is cautious. Corn is expected to fluctuate widely before the Spring Festival, and buying on dips can be considered for significant drops [1] Egg - From chicken - chick replenishment data, the inventory of laying hens will decline monthly in H1 2026, with significant drops in March and April due to low replenishment and accelerated old - hen culling. The decline narrows in May. Due to a marginal improvement in inventory, excessive short - selling is not recommended [2] Pig - At the end of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%, and 101.6% of the normal level; the number of live pigs sold was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4%, and the inventory of live pigs was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5%. The supply around the Spring Festival is large, and near - term and spot prices are unlikely to rise continuously. The far - term market depends on recent capacity reduction and the number of breeding sows [2][3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that while pig prices are rebounding during the peak season, the extent of the increase has narrowed due to ongoing capacity reduction in the pig farming industry, which is slowing down [1] - The pig farming industry is expected to continue capacity reduction under the pressures of rising epidemic risks and policy constraints [1] - The white chicken industry has a high capacity level, suggesting that chicken prices may continue to fluctuate in the medium term, while the yellow chicken industry is at historically low capacity levels, potentially leading to price increases [1] Group 2 - In the animal health sector, core antibiotic prices have recently experienced high-level fluctuations [1] - In the planting industry chain, grain prices of various types have recently increased, and are expected to trend upward in the medium term due to domestic and international factors, which will also support seed price increases [1] - The livestock ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock farming, feed processing, and veterinary medicine to reflect the overall performance of the livestock industry [1]

Group 1: Protein Meal - CBOT soybeans rose due to a weaker dollar, while soybean meal fell and soybean oil increased [2][10] - Brazil's soybean export forecast for January is 3.23 million tons, lower than the previous estimate of 3.79 million tons [2][10] - Domestic protein meal shows strong fluctuations, supported by pre-holiday stocking demand, but limited by arbitrage funds [2][10] Group 2: Oils - BMD palm oil increased, following the upward trend in surrounding markets, supported by good export data and declining production [3][11] - January palm oil exports increased by 7.97%-9.97% month-on-month, while production decreased by 14.81% [3][11] - Domestic oil prices rose, with palm oil leading the increase, while soybean and rapeseed oil followed [3][11] Group 3: Live Pigs - Live pig futures showed weak fluctuations, with the main contract down 1.57% to 11,285 yuan/ton [5][12] - The average price of live pigs in China was 12.7 yuan/kg, down 0.12 yuan/kg week-on-week [5][12] - Increased supply and general demand led to a decline in pig prices, with a recommendation for short-term trading [5][12] Group 4: Eggs - Egg futures showed weak fluctuations, with the main contract down 0.72% to 3,047 yuan/500 kg [6][13] - The national average egg price was 3.94 yuan/lb, up 0.08 yuan/lb week-on-week [6][13] - Short-term pre-holiday stocking supports current prices, but long-term supply pressures may arise due to increased breeding intentions [6][13] Group 5: Corn - Corn futures decreased as funds shifted to the May contract, with near-term contracts leading the decline [7][14] - High purchase prices in the northern ports and strong processing prices support market prices [7][14] - The overall pace of grain sales is slower compared to last year, with stable prices in the sales regions [7][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soybean spot market price is stable with a slight upward trend, and it is expected to continue the oscillatory trend [1]. - The domestic corn spot market atmosphere is strong, with prices rising in the north and falling slightly in the south. It is recommended to view it as wide - range oscillation before the Spring Festival, and consider buying on dips if there is a significant decline [1]. - The egg - laying hen inventory in the first half of 2026 will decline monthly, with significant drops in March and April and a narrowing decline in May. It is not recommended to be overly bearish [2]. - The pig de - capacity process is ongoing. The spot supply is expected to be large around the Spring Festival, and it is difficult for near - month and spot prices to rise continuously. Far - month prices depend on capacity reduction in the past two months and the number of sows [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The domestic soybean spot market price is stable with a slight upward trend. Northeast产区 prices are stable, farmers' asking prices are unchanged, and most traders buy casually and consume inventory. Multi - platform soybean auctions attract attention and have good transactions. There is pre - Spring Festival replenishment demand, but it is difficult for traders to raise prices [1]. Corn - The domestic corn spot market atmosphere is strong, especially in the Northeast. The average purchase price of deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast increased by 0.7% week - on - week, in North China by 0.6% week - on - week, in northern ports by 0.66% week - on - week, and decreased by 0.4% in southern ports week - on - week. The strong pattern weakens from north to south and from production areas to sales areas. Deep - processing enterprises still have pre - holiday replenishment demand, and the increase in grassroots supply does not form pressure. There are concerns about the upside space due to the price inversion between production and sales areas and continuous reserve auctions. It is recommended to view it as wide - range oscillation before the Spring Festival and consider buying on dips if there is a significant decline [1]. Egg - Based on chick - replenishment data, the inventory of egg - laying hens in the first half of 2026 will decline monthly. The inventory decline is most significant in March and April due to low previous chick - replenishment and accelerated culling of old hens. In May, the decline narrows, and the industry enters a supply - demand adjustment transition period. The market is fluctuating, and there is no obvious driving factor. Since the inventory margin has improved slightly compared to the second half of last year, it is not recommended to be overly bearish [2]. Pig - At the end of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%, and it was 101.6% of the normal reserve. In October 2025, the sow inventory was 39.9 million. In 2025, the national pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4%. At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5%. The pig de - capacity process is ongoing. The spot supply is expected to be large around the Spring Festival. The demand has increased, but it is difficult for near - month and spot prices to rise continuously. Far - month prices depend on capacity reduction in the past two months and the number of sows [2][3].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Views - The report highlights a continued decline in average prices for live pigs, with December showing an increase in the number of pigs slaughtered but a decrease in average selling prices. The average price for live pigs in December was 11.5 yuan/kg, down 1.82% month-on-month and down 27.15% year-on-year [2][12] - The report anticipates that the ongoing capacity reduction policies will lead to a long-term increase in the price center for live pigs, benefiting low-cost and high-quality pig farming companies [36] - The beef market is expected to see a long-term upward trend in prices due to a decrease in the number of breeding cows and the implementation of import restrictions on beef, which will tighten market supply [38] - In the poultry sector, the end of the vaccination period has led to a significant increase in the supply of chicken, resulting in a drop in chick prices. However, the egg market is experiencing a price increase due to pre-holiday stocking [46][51] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - December saw a total of 17 listed pig companies slaughter 17.9872 million pigs, an increase of 6.8% month-on-month and 8.87% year-on-year [11] - The average selling price for pigs in December was 11.5 yuan/kg, reflecting a downward trend due to oversupply [12] - The report notes a slight recovery in the average weight of pigs slaughtered, which was 128.89 kg as of January 22 [25] 2. Cattle Industry - The price of calves has continued to rise, with the price for fattening bulls at 25.66 yuan/kg and calves at 33.09 yuan/kg as of January 23 [38] - The report indicates that the supply of beef is expected to tighten, leading to a favorable long-term price outlook [38] 3. Poultry Industry - The end of the vaccination period has resulted in a drop in chick prices to 2.2 yuan/chick, while chicken prices remain stable at 7.5 yuan/kg [46] - The egg market is seeing an increase in prices, with the average price for eggs at 7.93 yuan/kg, up 0.64% week-on-week [46] 4. Seed Industry - The report discusses the strengthening of intellectual property protection in the seed industry, which is expected to enhance market order and accelerate the commercialization of genetically modified organisms [59]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Pre - holiday inventory accumulation falling short of expectations, the late Spring Festival and other supply - demand mismatch factors led to an unexpected increase in egg spot prices during the pre - holiday stocking period. The near - term contracts on the futures market followed the increase rationally. However, after the egg - farming industry returned to profitability, the market's inventory accumulation sentiment has clearly emerged. It is highly likely that the supply - side pressure will be postponed, which may keep the egg prices under pressure in the first half of the year after the Spring Festival. Considering the limited decline in the current inventory and the uncertainty of future capacity reduction, under the assumption of low and relatively stable cost, the post - holiday near - term contracts are more likely to be anchored to the cost. For the far - end contracts, due to the expectation of recovery in chicken replenishment, it is difficult to achieve excess profits. Currently, the premiums of each futures contract are still relatively high. The recommended strategy is to short on rebounds [2][17]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Pre - holiday Stocking Period: Spot Prices Rose More than Expected - Since New Year's Day, stimulated by pre - holiday stocking sentiment, egg spot prices have been rising continuously, with the increase approaching that of the peak season in the first half of September. As of late January, the price in Hebei Guantao, an external - sales production area, was above 3.6 yuan per catty, a nearly 30% increase from the low point at the beginning of the month. In Henan, an internal - sales production area, the spot price has exceeded 4 yuan per catty. As a result, the egg - farming industry returned to profitability after 3 months [4]. - The abnormal rise in egg prices was driven by several factors: a. The production capacity decreased month - on - month. The inventory scale peaked and declined in September last year. The number of newly - hatched chickens since July last year decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The number of slaughtered laying hens increased significantly, and the average age of hens dropped below 490 days. The proportion of small eggs dropped to 13.81%, significantly lower than the peak of 18.86% last year, while the proportion of large eggs rose to 42.81% [5]. b. The late Spring Festival led to a delay in demand, and the hoarding sentiment boosted the price increase. Due to the late Spring Festival and insufficient early - stage inventory accumulation, there was an unexpected price increase, and local hoarding speculation further amplified the short - term increase. c. The continuously strong prices of substitutes such as vegetables and pork also supported the rise in egg prices. Since January, short - sellers in the futures market have covered their positions to repair the basis, and the near - term contracts have been particularly strong, but still more restrained compared to the spot market [5]. 3.2 Market Inventory Accumulation Sentiment Emerged - The unexpected price increase brought the egg - farming industry back to the profit range. The current high spot valuation and high premium of the far - end futures contracts on the market reflect the market sentiment. However, the inventory is still high and the age structure of hens is young, and there is still uncertainty in the supply - side rhythm. If the market's optimistic expectations are over - advanced, the expected capacity reduction may slow down or even stop. Currently, signs of inventory accumulation sentiment have emerged [10]. - a. The age of slaughtered hens has risen counter - seasonally from 484 days to 490 days, and the number of slaughtered hens has decreased, indicating an increase in the sentiment of delaying hen slaughter. Considering the young age structure of hens, molting during the festival and a new peak in egg - laying after the festival are common practices, which will increase the post - festival supply pressure [10]. b. The sentiment of replenishing chicken chicks and young hens has emerged. The prices of chicken chicks and egg - laying chicks have risen for 4 consecutive weeks. In December, the number of replenished chickens stopped falling and increased. Xiaoming Co., Ltd.'s chicken chick sales and prices increased by 8.3% and 19.6% respectively in December, and the utilization rate of breeding eggs at sample points has risen from 57% at the beginning of the year to 68% currently, indicating that the market's replenishment sentiment is on the rise [13]. 3.3 Post - festival and Longer - term Egg Prices will be Anchored to the Cost - The market is closely watching the changes in inventory. However, inventory changes are uncertain and will be dynamically adjusted based on current and future expected profits. As long as there is an expectation of profit, the reduced production capacity can be quickly replenished through increased replenishment or delayed hen slaughter. The key factor is the change in the cost. As long as the cost remains at the current low level and there is a profit in expectation or reality, it is difficult to achieve future capacity reduction [16]. - In the short - term, although the spot price increased more than expected during the pre - holiday stocking period, during the festival, demand will disappear while supply remains the same, so inventory accumulation is inevitable. Except in extremely short - supply years, egg prices will almost always fall below the cost line. In the long - term, with the upcoming spring chick - replenishing season, considering the low cost, high expectations, and a 4 - 5 - month egg - laying period after hatching, it is not necessary or inevitable for the production capacity to continue to decline. Under the condition of low cost, it is difficult to achieve excess profits in the far - end contracts [16].

Group 1 - The Livestock ETF (159865) rose over 2.1%, attracting institutional attention due to capacity and policy developments [1] - In poultry farming, frequent outbreaks of avian influenza overseas create uncertainty for the introduction of grandparent stock, which is expected to benefit the white feather chicken industry chain prices in the medium to long term [1] - In the pig farming sector, pig prices are fluctuating, with group farms increasing output while smallholders continue to hold back on sales. Supply pressures remain, and policy guidance may accelerate capacity reduction [1] Group 2 - The animal health industry faces demand pressure from the breeding cycle perspective, but the launch of new products by various companies provides growth momentum [1] - In the seed industry, attention should be paid to the progress of biological breeding expansion and the promotion of genetically modified corn [1] - The pet sector is experiencing limited impact from export order disruptions, while the domestic market continues to show growth trends, with domestic brands increasing market share [1] Group 3 - The Livestock ETF (159865) tracks the CSI Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock farming, feed processing, and animal health from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets to reflect the overall performance of related securities [1] - The index covers the entire industry chain from farming to animal health, providing a comprehensive representation of the industry [1]

研究报告 能繁去化不及预期 供应压制磨底延续 华龙期货投资咨询部 研究员：刘维新 期货从业资格证号：F3073404 投资咨询资格证号：Z0020700 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：305127042@qq.com 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 市场对上半年生猪出栏压力延续的担忧持续升温，引发盘面 集中抛压，上周生猪期货盘面震荡走弱，截至上周五收盘，生猪 期货主力 LH2603 合约报 11565 元/吨，涨 0.26%。 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2026 年 1 月 26 日星期一 上周猪价先涨后跌，周均价重心上移，全国生猪出栏均价报 12.87 元/公斤，环比上涨 1.42%；仔猪周均价 343.33 元/头，环 比涨 11.09%，养殖户节前提前补栏控成本、集团场刚性补栏及部 分区域产能去化共同提振需求；二元母猪市场交投清淡，二元母 猪均价 1431 元/头，后备养殖户补栏积极性偏低；淘汰母猪价格 随猪价回暖上行，全国均价 9.77 元/公斤，环比涨 2.84%，养殖 端惜淘情绪浓厚；标肥价差环比走扩至-0.75 元/公斤，气温走低 ...

Group 1: Corn Market - Domestic futures prices have both surpassed 2300, but without significant tightness in the fundamentals, price pressures arise from timing mismatches in stocking needs and spatial mismatches due to regional adjustments [4][13] - This week, corn arrivals are concentrated, with Guangdong expected to receive 534,000 tons; on the 23rd, state grain reserves auctioned 144,000 tons of corn, with a transaction volume of 132,000 tons, achieving a transaction rate of 91% [4][13] - The corn main contract is expected to observe support around 2250, with potential upward movement towards 2330 [5][14] Group 2: Soybean Meal Market - U.S. cold wave weather raises concerns over winter wheat yield losses and processing plant shutdowns, while South American weather presents temporary risk premiums, leading to a rebound in CBOT soybeans [5][14] - Forecasts indicate favorable rainfall in most of Brazil for the coming week, beneficial for soybean growth, but continuous rainfall may delay harvesting; Argentina's main production areas still face drought risks [5][14] - The rebound in the U.S. market provides marginal support for meal prices, while concerns over potential tightness in domestic soybean supply and uncertainties in reserve release schedules also offer some support [5][14] Group 3: Egg Market - The spot price for eggs remains stable, with the average price in Hebei at approximately 3.51 yuan per jin, unchanged from the previous day; previous strong performance has led to a stagnation in price growth [6][16] - The total replenishment volume for 2025 is expected to decrease by approximately 42.2 million birds compared to 2024, but will still maintain a high level of about 1.015 billion birds [6][16] - Short-term support from pre-Spring Festival stocking may lead to a rebound, but caution is advised for potential post-holiday corrections; medium-term strategies should focus on the established trend of capacity reduction [6][16] Group 4: Pork Market - The average price of live pigs in major production areas is approximately 13.05 yuan per kilogram; profits from self-breeding and purchased piglets are nearing breakeven, indicating a significant alleviation of industry losses [7][17] - The improvement in pig farming profits and rising piglet prices signal short-term market recovery, but supply pressures are expected to persist into the first half of 2026 [7][17] - Current market recovery may hinder the path of capacity reduction, potentially limiting the upward space for spot prices [7][17]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Swine Breeding Sector Industry Overview - The swine breeding sector is undergoing significant structural changes, with small farms being eliminated and large breeding groups expanding. This cycle is expected to see a more pronounced capacity reduction than previous cycles, with cost control and cash flow management becoming critical [1][2]. Key Insights and Arguments - Historical data indicates that when the cumulative reduction of breeding sows reaches approximately 3%, stock prices begin to rise. The industry has experienced deep losses for three consecutive months, and a faster capacity reduction is anticipated, benefiting companies with cost advantages and strong cash flow [1][2]. - As the New Year approaches, frozen meat inventories at slaughterhouses are increasing, and consumer demand remains strong. Some large groups are taking advantage of this to raise pork prices, although the reluctance of small farmers to sell may exert downward pressure on prices [1][4]. - From 2021 to 2023, the market saw a significant exit of small breeding entities, while large-scale groups expanded. The reduction in breeding sows during this period was 8.3% and 9.1% respectively, with listed companies increasing their sow inventory by 3.5% [5]. Market Dynamics - The public fund holding ratio in the sector has increased significantly, driven by the cumulative capacity reduction rather than merely the duration of the cycle. For instance, when the cumulative reduction reached 5.2% in Q3 to Q4 of 2021, the public fund holding ratio rose from 0.96% to 1.16% [6]. - The industry is expected to face challenges in the first half of 2026, with some companies predicting pork prices could drop below 10 yuan/kg. The large-scale capacity reduction has not yet formally begun, and cash flow consumption is severe [3][7]. Price Trends and Future Outlook - Currently, pork prices in northern regions have risen from 11.5 yuan/kg to around 12 yuan/kg, but the reluctance of small farmers to sell may lead to future price pressures [4]. - The overall health of pig herds has improved, leading to a significant reduction in the demand for vaccines and veterinary drugs, which has decreased from 120-180 yuan to around 50 yuan [9]. - The efficiency of breeding has improved, with the number of piglets weaned per sow per year (PSY) increasing from approximately 17-18 to over 28 in many large groups, contributing to lower overall breeding costs [8]. Additional Important Points - The current low pork prices, if sustained for over three months, could lead to the exit of some large breeding farms from the market, highlighting the importance of monitoring capacity reduction in the industry [12]. - In regions like Hunan and Jiangxi, the market dynamics are influenced by local demand and cash flow pressures faced by small farms, with some potentially being taken over by larger groups [10][11]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the critical factors affecting the swine breeding sector, including market dynamics, price trends, and the implications of capacity reductions on investment opportunities.