1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The polyolefin market is currently facing a continuous imbalance between supply and demand, which suppresses prices. High production expectations were realized in Q3, with new production capacity gradually released. In November, the demand is expected to weaken, and the cost side also lacks support. Overall, the downward pressure on polyolefin prices is expected to continue, and the market may fluctuate in the bottom range, with weak support from potential phased restocking demand due to low absolute prices [7][75][76]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Quarterly Performance**: In Q1, different upstream production rhythms led to different supply pressures for plastics and PP. In Q2, the market declined due to tariff impacts and weak demand. In Q3, the market was driven by policies, with a temporary rebound followed by a decline. In October, new production capacity and weakening cost support led to significant price drops [12][13]. - **Spot Market**: In October, the PE market declined. The monthly average price of LLDPE was 7,225 yuan/ton, down 2.41% month - on - month and 15.40% year - on - year. The monthly average price of LDPE was 9,325 yuan/ton, down 2.73% month - on - month and 14.31% year - on - year. In the PP market, the monthly average price of East China PP raffia was 6,585 yuan/ton, down 3.37% month - on - month and 13.25% year - on - year [14]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Production and Capacity - **PP Production**: In September 2025, China's PP total production was 3.2754 million tons, down 6.20% month - on - month and up 9.84% year - on - year. The loss due to maintenance was still high, but the overall production level increased. In November, some maintenance devices will restart, and the loss due to maintenance is expected to decrease [15]. - **PE Production**: In October 2025, PE production was expected to be 2.7806 million tons, up 10.48% month - on - month. The start - up load rate increased. In November, the maintenance loss is expected to be about 470,000 tons [16]. - **New Capacity**: New capacity from Guangxi Petrochemical, ExxonMobil Huizhou, and BASF Zhanjiang will gradually be released [29]. 3.2.2. Import and Export - **PE**: In September 2025, PE imports were 1.022 million tons, up 7.58% month - on - month and down 10.04% year - on - year. Exports were 99,000 tons, down 14.5% month - on - month and up 63.55% year - on - year [31]. - **PP**: In September 2025, PP imports were 290,100 tons, up 17.46% month - on - month and down 2.96% year - on - year. Exports were 237,600 tons, up 21.98% year - on - year [31]. 3.2.3. Inventory - After the National Day holiday, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased. As of the end of October, the inventory level was 675,000 tons, down 85,000 tons year - on - year. The inventory of PP commercial enterprises was 595,100 tons, and the social sample inventory of PE was 527,400 tons, up 2,900 tons month - on - month [33]. 3.2.4. Cost and Profit Analysis - **Coal**: In October, the coal market was stable to weak. The average profit of coal - based PE was 197.05 yuan/ton, down 431.21 yuan/ton from the previous month. The average profit of coal - based PP was - 258.13 yuan/ton, down 492 yuan/ton month - on - month [36]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ continued to increase production, and the market was worried about oversupply. The average profit of naphtha - based PE was 46.68 yuan/ton, up 186.8 yuan/ton month - on - month. The average loss of oil - based PP was - 246.15 yuan/ton, an increase of 106.4 yuan/ton month - on - month [37]. - **Propane**: In October, the domestic propane price fluctuated downward and then stabilized. The average profit of PDH - based PP was - 808.19 yuan/ton, a decrease in losses of 384.27 yuan/ton compared to the previous month [38]. 3.2.5. Downstream Demand - **PE**: In October, the downstream start - up rate of PE increased in most cases. The demand for agricultural films and pipes showed different trends, and overall, the demand for raw materials had limited support [52]. - **PP**: In October, the start - up rate of most PP downstream industries remained high, but the new orders had limited continuity, and the support for prices was limited [53]. 3.2.6. White Goods Production - In November 2025, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 2.847 million units, down 17.7% year - on - year. The domestic production schedule growth slowed down significantly in Q4, and the export decline narrowed [66][67]. 3.3. Market Outlook The polyolefin market will continue to be pressured by weak cost support and a loose supply - demand situation. Although the low absolute price may stimulate phased restocking demand, the market is expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation [75][76].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the largest hotel group will emerge in China, driven by supply-side reform in the hotel industry [1] - As of 2024, the chain rate of hotels in China is 40%, compared to 72% in the US and 44% in the EU, indicating significant room for growth in China's hotel chain market [1][2] - The potential for growth exists in both first and second-tier cities as well as in third and fourth-tier county markets, with a particular emphasis on the substantial growth potential in third and fourth-tier cities [2] Group 2 - The hotel industry is experiencing increased pressure in the existing market due to a decrease in business travel and a rise in inbound tourism, highlighting the potential of the county tourism market [2] - The trend towards franchise hotels is expected to lower the cost of re-establishing franchises and brands, driving supply-side transformation in the industry [2] - The competition within the industry is seen as a norm that can lead to continuous improvement in supply-side dynamics, with a shift from single units to chains and from star ratings to brands [2] Group 3 - Huazhu Group is enhancing its product matrix, recently launching the Haiyou fully self-service hotel, which has a construction cost of 57,100 yuan per room and a total investment of 3 million yuan for 45 rooms [3] - The company introduced a new brand, "All Seasons Grand View," as part of its strategy to focus on brand development as a core competitive advantage [3] - The vision of Huazhu is to become the foundational infrastructure of the accommodation industry in China [3]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the new brand "All Seasons Grand View" by Huazhu Group marks a strategic re-commitment to redefine the Chinese hotel industry for the next 20 years, emphasizing the importance of local culture and design in the hospitality sector [1][3][15] Group 1: Brand Development - The new brand "All Seasons Grand View" was unveiled at the 2025 Huazhu Partners Conference, celebrating Huazhu's 20th anniversary [1][3] - Huazhu's existing mid-range brand, All Seasons, has achieved a significant scale with nearly 3,500 locations nationwide, recognized as the fastest-growing mid-range hotel brand [3][5] - Huazhu's founder predicts that All Seasons and HanTing will rank among the top two single-brand hotels globally in the near future [3][5] Group 2: Market Positioning - The hotel industry is transitioning from rapid expansion to a focus on high-quality development, particularly in the mid to high-end market [7][8] - There is a notable disconnect between current hotel offerings and the actual needs of contemporary Chinese consumers, particularly in service and design [7][8] - The emergence of a "Chinese design" wave is seen as an opportunity for Huazhu to cater to the preferences of a new generation of Chinese consumers [5][8] Group 3: Strategic Vision - Huazhu aims to create a world-class brand rooted in Eastern culture, addressing the genuine needs of Chinese consumers [8][10] - The company emphasizes efficiency and scale as key competitive advantages, with over 12,000 hotels across 19 countries by 2025 [10][13] - The launch of All Seasons Grand View is positioned as a culmination of Huazhu's 20 years of experience and a starting point for future growth [10][15]

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of Industrial Securities in Q3 2025 shows significant growth in revenue and net profit, driven by market recovery and improved asset management [1][2]. Financial Performance - Total operating revenue (excluding other business income) reached 9.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 39.7%, with a quarterly revenue of 3.9 billion RMB, up by 8.2 billion RMB sequentially [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.52 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 91%, with a quarterly net profit of 1.19 billion RMB, up by 3.8 billion RMB sequentially [2]. Return on Equity (ROE) Analysis - The company's ROE improved significantly to 4.1%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, with a quarterly ROE of 1.9%, up by 0.6 percentage points sequentially [3]. - Financial leverage at the end of the reporting period was 3.81 times, an increase of 0.15 times year-on-year and 0.2 times sequentially [3]. - The asset turnover ratio was 3.9%, up by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, with a quarterly asset turnover ratio of 1.6%, up by 0.3 percentage points sequentially [3]. - The net profit margin was 27.2%, an increase of 7.3 percentage points year-on-year, with a quarterly net profit margin of 30.8%, up by 4.1 percentage points sequentially [3]. Balance Sheet Overview - Total assets (excluding client funds) amounted to 235.4 billion RMB, an increase of 27.26 billion RMB year-on-year, with net assets of 61.9 billion RMB, up by 4.91 billion RMB year-on-year [3]. Debt and Income Analysis - Interest-bearing liabilities totaled 148.9 billion RMB, up by 15.67 billion RMB sequentially, with a quarterly cost of debt at 0.5%, down by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - Revenue from heavy capital business increased to 4.67 billion RMB, with a quarterly revenue of 2.09 billion RMB, up by 4.3 billion RMB sequentially [4]. - Brokerage business revenue showed significant growth, reaching 2.16 billion RMB, with a quarterly revenue of 0.92 billion RMB, up by 58.6% sequentially and 137.8% year-on-year [7]. Investment Banking and Asset Management - Investment banking revenue was 420 million RMB, with a quarterly revenue of 200 million RMB, up by 100 million RMB sequentially [8]. - Asset management revenue was 110 million RMB, with a quarterly revenue of 40 million RMB, remaining stable year-on-year [9]. Regulatory Metrics - The risk coverage ratio was 334.9%, down by 19.5 percentage points from the previous period, with risk capital reserves at 12.6 billion RMB, up by 790 million RMB [10]. - The net capital was 42.1 billion RMB, up by 2% from the previous period, with a net stable funding ratio of 185.8%, down by 23 percentage points [10]. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from supply-side reforms and growth in asset management, with upward adjustments to earnings forecasts for 2025/2026/2027 [10]. - Projected EPS for 2025/2026/2027 is 0.42/0.44/0.47 RMB, with a target price of 8.72 RMB based on a 1.30 times PB valuation for 2026 [10].

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The report highlights significant price recovery in the polysilicon industry under the "anti-involution" policy, with major companies showing improved performance [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of collaboration among leading photovoltaic companies to escape low-price competition and achieve higher quality development [14] - The report identifies three key areas of focus: supply-side reform price increase opportunities, long-term growth opportunities from new technologies, and industrialization opportunities from perovskite GW-level layouts [14] Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Generation 1.1 Photovoltaics - The average price increase for the four main materials in the photovoltaic industry chain reached nearly 35% in Q3, marking the best quarterly performance in three years [14] - Major companies like Daqo Energy and GCL-Poly have reported improved profits, with Daqo achieving a net profit of 73.48 million yuan in Q3 [14] - A coalition of 17 leading companies is being formed to stabilize prices and improve product quality [14] 1.2 Wind Power & Grid - Goldwind Technology signed a 3GW wind power project in Saudi Arabia, expanding its global presence to 48 countries [15] - The project will provide a full lifecycle solution, and Saudi Arabia aims to derive 50% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030 [15] - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in wind turbine manufacturing and high-voltage cable technology [15][18] 1.3 Hydrogen & Energy Storage - The first "green methanol" project in China was launched in Jilin, showcasing a new model for green liquid fuel production [19] - The report indicates a strong focus on energy storage, with a significant number of projects and a bidding price range for storage systems between 0.4300 yuan/Wh and 0.8500 yuan/Wh [19][24] - Companies with high growth potential in energy storage are highlighted, including Sungrow Power Supply and Kehua Tech [27] 2. New Energy Vehicles - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate reached 103,500 yuan/ton, a 72.5% increase from the previous month, indicating tight supply conditions [28] - The report notes that the price of lithium iron phosphate has also increased, suggesting further price increase potential across various battery materials [28] - Key companies to watch include Tianqi Lithium, Hunan Yueneng, and Enjie [28][29]

Core Viewpoint - The largest hotel group is expected to emerge from China, with significant opportunities in the supply-side reform of the hotel industry [1]. Group 1: Market Potential - As of 2024, the chain rate of hotels in China is projected to be 40%, compared to 72% in the U.S. and 44% in the EU, indicating substantial room for growth in China's hotel chain market [2]. - The hotel industry in China has considerable potential for growth, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities, despite a decrease in business travel and an increase in inbound tourism [3]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The current market pressure is increasing due to a growing stock market, but the county-level tourism market presents significant opportunities [3]. - Competition within the industry is seen as a norm, with appropriate competition driving continuous supply-side improvements [3]. Group 3: Company Strategy - Huazhu Group is enhancing its product matrix, recently launching the Haiyou fully self-service hotel, which has a construction cost of 57,100 yuan per room and a total investment of 3 million yuan for 45 rooms [3]. - The company aims to establish itself as a brand-centric organization, aspiring to become the foundational infrastructure of China's accommodation industry [3].

Core Insights - The Chinese county-level hotel market has significant potential, driven by factors such as a large population base, infrastructure development, and a growing tourism market, with supply-side reform being the biggest opportunity for the hotel industry in the future [1][3] Industry Overview - The chain rate of the Chinese hotel market is projected to be around 40% in 2024, indicating substantial opportunities for growth in the chain hotel sector, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities [3] - The hotel industry is experiencing a shift from simple expansion to focusing on high-cost performance hotels, including mid-range and tech-integrated self-service hotels, to provide better emotional value and service to customers [5] Company Developments - Huazhu Group plans to launch a new brand called "Huazhu Daguan" and expand its self-service hotel brand "Haiyou," which operates with a low staff-to-room ratio, significantly reducing labor costs [4] - The investment return for self-service hotels is relatively short, with new construction costs starting at approximately 57,000 yuan per room and renovation costs at around 25,000 yuan per room, making it a low-cost investment option [4] Market Dynamics - The hotel industry is transitioning into a stock competition era, where key operational metrics such as occupancy rates and average room rates are increasingly linked to city tiers, necessitating a focus on both revenue enhancement and cost optimization [5] - The rise of AI technology is expected to further enhance customer experience and operational efficiency in the hotel sector [3][5]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic stocks have collectively risen, with significant increases observed across various companies, indicating a positive market sentiment in the solar energy sector [1]. Company Performance - Xinte Energy (01799) saw a price increase of 8.49%, reaching 8.560, with a trading volume of 236.99 million and a market capitalization of 12.241 billion [2]. - GCL-Poly Energy (03800) increased by 5.30% to 1.390, with a trading volume of 530 million and a market capitalization of 42.409 billion [2]. - GCL-New Energy (00451) rose by 4.41% to 0.710, with a trading volume of 549,400 and a market capitalization of 1.104 billion [2]. - Sunshine Energy (00757) increased by 4.08% to 0.102, with a trading volume of 16,400 and a market capitalization of 0.339 billion [2]. - Xinyi Solar (00968) saw a 2.73% increase to 3.760, with a trading volume of 10.1 million and a market capitalization of 34.393 billion [2]. - Other companies such as Kaisheng New Energy (01108), Xinyi Energy (03868), and Fuchai Glass (06865) also reported positive price movements ranging from 1.28% to 2.14% [2]. Industry Developments - According to a report by Shanghai Securities News, GCL Group's chairman, Zhu Gongshan, mentioned that 17 leading companies in the photovoltaic sector have signed agreements for joint capacity storage [2]. - Shenwan Hongyuan released a research report stating that polysilicon is a key focus for combating industry competition, and the establishment of a joint platform will accelerate supply-side reforms in polysilicon [2]. - The report also indicated that the ongoing efforts to combat competition are leading to noticeable recovery in industry prices and profitability, with expectations for price increases starting in Q3 2025 under a "not below cost sales" pricing regulation [2].

Core Viewpoint - The solar energy stocks have collectively risen, driven by positive developments in the industry, particularly the establishment of a joint storage capacity among leading companies in the domestic photovoltaic sector [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - New Special Energy (01799) increased by 8.75%, reaching HKD 8.58 [1] - GCL-Poly Energy (03800) rose by 6.06%, reaching HKD 1.39 [1] - Xinyi Solar (00968) saw a 3.83% increase, reaching HKD 3.8 [1] - Flat Glass Group (601865) gained 2.39%, reaching HKD 12.44 [1] Group 2: Industry Developments - GCL-Poly Chairman Zhu Gongshan announced that 17 leading companies have signed agreements regarding joint storage capacity during a recent interview [1] - The establishment of a joint platform is expected to accelerate supply-side reforms in the polysilicon sector, as noted in a report by Shenwan Hongyuan [1] - The ongoing efforts to combat "involution" are leading to noticeable recovery in industry prices and profitability [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - By the third quarter of 2025, the polysilicon industry is anticipated to begin price increases under regulations requiring sales at "not lower than cost," gradually recovering above the comprehensive cost line [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights the dual drive of domestic demand and military trade in the radar business of Guorui Technology, indicating a potential for sustained performance improvement due to asset restructuring and increasing defense spending [9][11][12] - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a supply-side reform led by a coalition of 17 companies, aiming to stabilize prices and improve profitability through coordinated production and quality management [14][19] Guorui Technology (600562) Insights - The company is positioned as a leading radar enterprise backed by significant technological resources from the China Electronics Technology Group Corporation, with a focus on radar equipment and related systems [11] - Continuous growth in defense spending and the need for upgraded military equipment are expected to drive revenue from military radar devices [11][12] - The company anticipates a significant increase in military trade business, supported by recent geopolitical conflicts and rising global military expenditures [11][12] - Civilian radar applications are also expected to contribute to revenue growth, particularly in meteorological and air traffic management sectors [11][12] Photovoltaic Industry Insights - The establishment of a joint platform by 17 photovoltaic companies is aimed at addressing supply-side issues, particularly in the polysilicon segment, which is crucial for cost and profit distribution across the industry [14][19] - The "anti-involution" strategy is showing positive results, with prices recovering and profitability improving as companies adhere to a "not below cost sales" policy [19] - The report suggests that the photovoltaic sector is on a path to recovery, with expectations for improved market performance as the supply-side reforms take effect [19] Market and Economic Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points reflects a cautious approach to economic expansion, with ongoing uncertainties in the job market and inflation levels [10][12] - The report indicates that the economic outlook remains mixed, with potential implications for investment strategies in various sectors, including defense and renewable energy [10][12]