Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the policy stance of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Walsh, emphasizing "pragmatic monetarism" which aims to control inflation while addressing President Trump's interest in interest rate cuts, ultimately seeking to correct market distortions caused by excessive quantitative easing (QE) and achieve convergence in the "K"-shaped economy [2]. Group 1: "Balance Sheet Reduction + Rate Cuts": New Fed Chairman's Policy Proposals - Walsh's notable policy proposal is "rate cuts + balance sheet reduction" (QT), asserting that the Fed must take responsibility for inflation, which he attributes to prolonged QE post-crisis. He believes QT is necessary to control inflation, and once inflation risks are mitigated, it will create room for rate cuts [3][7]. - The policy proposals reflect a reform in monetary policy mechanisms. Walsh criticizes the Fed's large balance sheet, claiming QE distorts market incentives. He advocates for reducing bank reserves through balance sheet reduction to enhance lending willingness, transitioning from a "sufficient reserves" to a "scarce reserves" framework [4][8]. Group 2: The White House and Wall Street Balance: Why Trump Chose Walsh - Trump's criticism of current Chairman Powell as "Mr. Too Late" led to speculation about other candidates, but Walsh, favored by Wall Street, offers a balance between maintaining Fed independence and aligning with Trump's rate cut demands. His "pragmatic monetarism" reflects a commitment to controlling inflation while accommodating Trump's interests [4][12]. - The QT approach is seen as "responsible balance sheet management," correcting the idea of "infinite support" for demand-side policies, while rate cuts aim to enhance supply capabilities from an industrial policy perspective. This aligns with Trump's supply-side reform agenda [4][12]. Group 3: Pragmatic Monetarism: Speculations on Walsh's Governance Approach - Based on the quantity theory of money, QT is indeed a tool for controlling inflation. Evidence includes the CPI dropping from 9% to around 3% after the Fed announced passive balance sheet reduction in 2022. However, QT has limits, as recent liquidity issues in the repo market have led to a halt in QT and the initiation of Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) [5][16]. - Operationally, a series of deregulatory measures for banks, such as relaxing capital constraints and optimizing the Fed's temporary discount tools, could provide more room for QT. However, transitioning to a "scarce reserves" framework is challenging, and liquidity issues will constrain QT until bank reserves return to adequate levels. Trump's policies for manufacturing and real estate require credit expansion, which depends on sufficient reserve levels [5][16].

宏观专题报告 美联储将迎来供给侧改⾰者 !如何理解 Warsh（沃什）的货币政策框架？ 2026 年 1 ⽉ 31 ⽇ （ü）美联储资产负债表和 QE：Warsh 历来批评量化宽松（QE），但这不意味着他就 任后会⼤规模的对美联储持有的各种资 产进⾏缩 减。结合其对货币、财 政、通 胀 间关系 的理解来看，缩表的本质还是 为了更好的进⾏降 息， 并控制通胀预期。 （ß）货币与财政的关系：Warsh 认为财政部在尊重货币政策的前提 下应和美联储协 作，以清晰而审慎地向市场描述未来的资产负债表规模和所期望实现的⽬标。但同时， 美联储与财政部的合作也可能意味着，如果没有 Bessent 的 同意与配合，Warsh 也不 会开启⼤规模的量化紧缩。 （´）通 胀 ：对 于 Warsh 来说，" 通 胀 是 ⼀种选择"。其关于缩表的论述本质上是为了 通 过 控 制货币 数 量 和稳定通胀预期来 控 制通胀 ， 也 即缩表有利于通胀预期的稳定。 Warsh 并不会因为担忧近期的通胀⻛险而拒绝降 息， 他也表达过 在 AI 提升⽣ 产效率 的情况下，这类进步会在通胀稳定下⽀持更⾼的增⻓。 （Æ）⾦ 融 监 管 ：Warsh ...

宏观专题报告 美联储将迎来供给侧改⾰者 !如何理解 Warsh（沃什）的货币政策框架？ 2026 年 1 ⽉ 31 ⽇ （ü）美联储资产负债表和 QE：Warsh 历来批评量化宽松（QE），但这不意味着他就 任后会⼤规模的对美联储持有的各种资 产进⾏缩 减。结合其对货币、财 政、通 胀 间关系 的理解来看，缩表的本质还是 为了更好的进⾏降 息， 并控制通胀预期。 （ß）货币与财政的关系：Warsh 认为财政部在尊重货币政策的前提 下应和美联储协 作，以清晰而审慎地向市场描述未来的资产负债表规模和所期望实现的⽬标。但同时， 美联储与财政部的合作也可能意味着，如果没有 Bessent 的 同意与配合，Warsh 也不 会开启⼤规模的量化紧缩。 （´）通 胀 ：对 于 Warsh 来说，" 通 胀 是 ⼀种选择"。其关于缩表的论述本质上是为了 通 过 控 制货币 数 量 和稳定通胀预期来 控 制通胀 ， 也 即缩表有利于通胀预期的稳定。 Warsh 并不会因为担忧近期的通胀⻛险而拒绝降 息， 他也表达过 在 AI 提升⽣ 产效率 的情况下，这类进步会在通胀稳定下⽀持更⾼的增⻓。 （Æ）⾦ 融 监 管 ：Warsh ...

当地时间1月30日，美国总统特朗普终于宣布了下任美联储主席人选：美联储前理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）。沃什在正式履职前尚需美国国会参议院的批准。 8年前，特朗普在第一个任期挑选美联储主席人选时，鲍威尔与沃什是两个主要竞争者，特朗普选择了 鲍威尔。这一选择后来让特朗普懊悔不已。现在，特朗普选择了两人中的另一个。或许，特朗普以为， 他若在8年前就选择了沃什，就不用那么后悔了。 无论是第一任期，还是第二任期，房地产商出身的特朗普对于利率有着自己的强烈看法，他常常炮轰鲍 威尔降息太慢、太少。鲍威尔的美联储任期将于5月中旬结束，他还将主持3月、4月两次议息会议。 这场鲍威尔的"继承人之战"持续了数月时间，且异常激烈。除了沃什，主要角逐者还包括白宫国家经济 委员会主任凯文·哈西特（Kevin Hassett）、美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher J. Waller）、贝莱 德集团全球固定收益首席投资官里克・里德（Rick Rieder）。上述4人都在不同时期登上了头号候选人 的宝座。 沃什出生于1970年4月，工作经历横跨政、商、学三界。 沃什目前是斯坦·德鲁肯米勒家族办公室Duquesne的 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Real Estate Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the real estate industry in China, particularly the impact of policies and market dynamics on the sector's performance and future outlook [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - The issuance of real estate REITs by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is expected to significantly change the real estate industry by improving liquidity, reducing financing costs (expected at 3.6%), and re-evaluating land assets [1][5]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development in real estate, requiring state-owned enterprises to avoid large-scale losses and high debt levels, with real estate investment growth expected to align with GDP growth (projected at least 4.5%) [1][6][7]. - The secondary market is anticipated to focus on fundamentals in March and April, with a potential stabilization in the second half of the year, particularly for leading companies and core cities [1][8]. - Despite a general pessimism in the real estate sector, the disclosure of risk performance has been thorough, leading to a valuation recovery and an upward trend in the overall market index [1][9]. Important but Overlooked Content - The real estate sector's stock performance has been in line with expectations, with stock prices typically leading transaction volumes, which in turn precede property prices [3]. - The property sector's dividend and special dividend rates remain strong, with an expected rise in CPI to around 1.5%, enhancing price stability and service trade elasticity for property companies [3][11]. - Companies benefiting from supply-side reforms and high-quality development, such as China Resources, Poly, and China Overseas, are highlighted as key investment opportunities [10]. - The potential for companies like Beike and Wo Ai Wo Jia to show resilience in the second quarter is noted, especially if policy expectations are realized [12]. - The focus on internal renovations rather than just external facade improvements is emphasized as a more certain path for enhancing living experiences and driving industry growth [14]. Conclusion - The real estate industry is at a pivotal moment, with policy changes and market dynamics creating both challenges and opportunities. Investors are encouraged to focus on companies that align with high-quality development goals and those that can leverage the benefits of REITs to improve their financial positions.

首席点评：贵金属巨震 当地时间 1 月 29 日，美国总统特朗普表示，他将在下周公布美国联邦储备委员会下一任主席的提名人选。特 朗普当天早些时候在社交媒体上批评美联储主席鲍威尔 " 再次拒绝降息 " ，并声称美国利率应该在世界上处于 最低水平。特朗普还称，美联储下一任主席将 " 干得不错 " ，美联储目前利率 " 高得不可接受 " 。 1 月 29 日，国务院办公厅发布《加快培育服务消费新增长点工作方案》，提出聚焦交通服务、家政服务、网络视听服 务、旅居服务、汽车后市场服务、入境消费 6 个重点领域，以及演出服务，体育赛事服务，情绪式、体验式服 务 3 个潜力领域，加快培育服务消费新增长点，促进服务消费提质惠民，为经济高质量发展提供有力支撑。国 际贵金属期货普遍收涨， COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.32% 报 5410.80 美元 / 盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 1.98% 报 115.78 美元 / 盎司。 重点品种：贵金属、原油、铝 贵金属： 贵金属一度大幅下挫，随后震荡回升。近期国际金价持续飙升并迭创历史新高，这是地缘政治格局剧 烈动荡、全球政治经济秩序动摇与流动性环境持续宽松共同作用的必然结果。今年 ...

Core Insights - The meeting emphasized the importance of expanding domestic demand as a strategic initiative, aligning with national development goals and the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][2] Group 1: Economic Strategy - The government aims to enhance supply-demand coordination, deepen supply-side reforms, and optimize supply structure by eliminating outdated production capacity [2] - There is a focus on promoting digital, intelligent, and green transformation of traditional industries to improve the quality of products and services [2] - The meeting highlighted the need to release demand-side potential through the implementation of consumption quality enhancement projects and the acceleration of urban and rural commercial system construction [2] Group 2: Investment and Development - The government plans to optimize investment structure and enhance the role of government investment in alignment with major national strategies [2] - There is an emphasis on stimulating private investment and encouraging participation in major projects and new infrastructure construction [2] - The meeting discussed the importance of improving investment quality and effectiveness to sustain development momentum [2] Group 3: Employment and Social Welfare - The meeting underscored the need to solidify the foundation of domestic demand by enhancing consumption capacity and implementing an employment-first strategy [2] - Special incentive policies will be developed for key groups, such as college graduates, to gradually expand the middle-income group [2] - There is a commitment to increasing human capital investment and reforming vocational education to cultivate high-quality technical talent [2] Group 4: Food Safety in Rural Areas - The meeting addressed the significance of food safety in rural collective dining, emphasizing the need for risk management and responsibility accountability [3] - A focus on enhancing service efficiency and establishing a simple reporting mechanism for collective dining safety was discussed [3] - The meeting also highlighted the importance of emergency response mechanisms and strengthening grassroots regulatory capabilities to ensure effective handling of food safety incidents [3]

美元趋势贬值：中国资产是长期的矛，实物资产是短期的 盾 20260127 摘要 美国通过降低长期按揭贷款利率和增持长债来刺激经济，但这种措施难 以长期维持，且商品价格上涨导致美元进一步贬值，实际购买力恶化。 中国受益于美国燃烧服务业和居民部门，可释放购买力，且供给侧改革 使其能更好应对全球商品通胀，有望保持相对优势。 大宗商品价格上涨具短期防御特征，金融资本寻求避险资产，包括黄金 和 AI 等新兴技术领域，但高 ROE 科技股回报率或下降。 避险资金流向实物资产，表明原有交易结构失衡。黄金对冲美元信用恶 化，SpaceX 等项目为金融资本提供出口。 全球需求疲软，通胀压力积累，美国及其金融资本不断寻找避险方向， 从科技到实物资产轮动，加剧经济不稳定性。 中国通过供给侧改革、减少对美债依赖等措施脱离美国债务周期，增强 政策自主性和供应能力，成为进攻性资产。 美国需求秩序崩塌将冲击依赖其供应链的新兴市场，而中国经济体量大 且稳定，能更好应对，并加速人民币国际化。 Q&A 如何看待美元贬值对大类资产的影响？ 美元贬值和大宗商品价格上涨在当前市场环境中是一个危险信号。这种现象通 常表明全球经济秩序尚未稳定，具有较强的 ...

| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | 2026/1/28 | 星期三 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | | | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | IF当月 | IF下月 | IF下季 | IF隔季 | | | | | | | | 前两日收盘价 | 4713.80 | 4719.40 | 4701.60 | 4653.40 | 前日收盘价 | 4714.80 | 4718.20 | 4703.00 | 4653.40 | | | 涨跌 | -7.60 | -9.60 | -6.00 | -9.80 | 沪深300 | 涨跌幅 | -0.1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The essence of the cyclical performance of the tool industry is the fluctuation of tool prices, with the rising price of tungsten carbide becoming a decisive factor for the long-term upward cycle of tools [1][2] Group 1: Cycle Judgment - The end of price deflation marks the beginning of an upward cycle in the tool industry [1] - Tool demand is positively correlated with industrial added value, indicating a long-term increase in demand [1] - Tungsten carbide, accounting for 52% of the main BOM cost, is the core factor affecting the industry cycle [1][2] Group 2: Tungsten Price Trend - Domestic tungsten ore mining indicators are expected to decrease by 6.45% year-on-year by 2025, leading to a tightening global supply [2] - The CAGR of tungsten consumption in China from 2020 to 2024 is projected to be 5.52%, with a growing global supply-demand gap [2] - Tungsten is a strategic metal in defense and high-end manufacturing, with export controls implemented to maintain national security [2] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The tool industry is experiencing a supply-side reform with a trend towards industry consolidation and a decline in foreign imports [3] - From 2018 to 2022, China's tool import value decreased from 14.8 billion to 12.6 billion, while export value increased from 18 billion to 23.2 billion [3] - Private enterprises are showing significant innovation advantages and market vitality, while state-owned enterprises face management and innovation challenges [3] Group 4: Fundamental Evidence - The tool industry is establishing an upward cycle with synchronized improvement in financial statements [4] - Revenue and net profit growth rates for the first three quarters of 2025 are 23.12% and 13.62% respectively, indicating an industry turning point [4] - The cash flow situation is improving, with positive operating cash flow returning in the first half and first three quarters of 2025 [4]