Investment Rating - The investment rating for the photovoltaic industry is "Positive" and is maintained [11] Core Viewpoints - The current round of anti-involution in the photovoltaic sector has shown initial effectiveness, with a clearer direction for supply-demand improvement and beta recovery. The market is expected to continue upward momentum due to low holdings and valuations, alongside subsequent catalysts [4][8][22] - The core drivers for the ongoing photovoltaic market are the strengthening and elevation of price expectations, which can be tracked through two main aspects: progress on production/sales restrictions and the transmission of terminal component prices [9][40] Summary by Sections Initial Effects of Anti-Involution - The anti-involution actions in the photovoltaic sector have begun to yield initial results, with significant price increases observed in silicon materials and wafers. The prices of batteries and components have also risen, although full transmission of these price increases will take time [7][18] Clear Direction and Low Valuations - This is the second round of anti-involution for the photovoltaic industry, with a more mature and pragmatic approach compared to the first round. The political backing is stronger, and the timeline for achieving goals is clearer, increasing the likelihood of successful implementation [8][25] Potential Production and Sales Restrictions - Future actions may include production and sales restrictions to further optimize supply-demand dynamics. The strictness of these measures is expected to exceed last year's quota system, with regulatory oversight mechanisms in place to ensure compliance [9][40] Component Price Trends - The price of components is a critical indicator to monitor. Price increases in components suggest successful price transmission within the industry, which is essential for the recovery of upstream profitability. The acceptance of price increases may vary between domestic and international markets [10][40] Market Sentiment and Valuation - The photovoltaic sector is currently at a relatively low valuation, with significant room for growth. The holdings in the sector have decreased, indicating a potential for upward movement in stock prices as the anti-involution measures take effect [29][34]

关于日本经济和泡沫时代的这些内容我相信在目前互联网比较发达的背景下大家其实是可以搜索到非常多的这些内容和素材的这部分内容我觉得我不应该浪费太多的时间跟大家去重复的去讲那么今天我主要想通过我收集到的两张图表来跟大家聊一聊日本过去的60年以来一个比较清晰的脉络和路径 当然了这一定会对于当下的中国来说我觉得是有着非常多可以值得我们去参考和思考的地方 那当然了这组数据的历史部分不太容易获得我相信我们从比较多的这些数据库里比如说我用了彭博 我用了ICON我还用了CEIC等等这些数据库都没有办法去获得我们说较长的历史部分我试图去寻找的大概是从1960年左右开始到现在的一些日本的数据 当然了我们说到了90年代尤其到了90年代以后的日本数据还是比较全的但是这之前我们说是有比较大的一块空白的我们更多人可能大家是通过对于那段历史对于日本的那段历史的社会的一些描述来去感知当时的情况但是数据并不是很全 那于是我大概拜托了如果很多认识我的朋友应该知道在2012年13年安倍晋三上台之前我们专门的去日本做过比较详细的这种调研和生活过一段时间 我重新的委托了之前去日本做调研的大阪社科一些领域的友人他们通过翻阅日本内阁府的经济计算年报的数据和 ...

8月10日零时钟声敲响，宁德时代位于江西宜春的枧下窝矿区全面停止采矿作业。据媒体报道，该矿区 在采矿证到期未获续期后进入无限期停产状态。此消息一经传出后，碳酸锂期货价格11日开盘应声涨 停，期货市场的情绪又被点燃，宁德时代A股当日剧烈震荡，顽强收涨0.07%，港股则明显更为坚挺， 低开高走后收盘涨幅近2.5%。 对于此消息，宁德时代11日上午也在互动平台正式回应：公司在宜春项目采矿许可证8月9日到期后，确 已暂停了开采作业，并称"公司正按相关规定尽快办理采矿证延续申请，待获得批复后将尽早恢复生 产，该事项对公司整体经营影响不大"。 宁德时代纠结的股价反应，则折射出市场的疑虑——在"反内卷"政策主导新能源上游资源配置的背景 下，这一纸停产通知究竟是无奈之举，还是一场精心设计的产业棋局？ 不可否认的是，合规困境与成本压力为此次停产事件提供了逻辑支撑。合规方面，宁德时代枧下窝矿区 采矿证到期前未能完成续期，直接原因是宜春市自然资源局要求辖区内8家锂矿企业必须在9月30日前提 交储量核实报告并解决矿种审批合规问题。更深的背景则是2024年中央环保督察组对当地锂云母开采污 染的点名批评，使得地方政府在矿权审批上更审慎。 ...

Investment Rating - The report focuses on identifying investment opportunities in industries that are expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, particularly in coal, steel, and building materials sectors, which are characterized by high levels of internal competition and effective policy execution [7][19]. Core Insights - The report addresses key questions regarding the existence of a clear investment theme in the market, the establishment of a systematic and quantifiable analysis framework for industry selection, and the roadmap and timeline for investments [7]. - The macroeconomic context highlights that industrial profits are under pressure, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) experiencing negative growth for 33 consecutive months as of June 2025, leading to intensified competition within industries [7][14]. - The "anti-involution" policy has emerged as a national agenda aimed at optimizing industry structures and restoring profitability, driven by strong policy guidance [7][19]. - A dual-dimensional analysis model was constructed to evaluate the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on various industries, focusing on execution efficiency and the degree of internal competition [7]. - The investment conclusion emphasizes a focus on supply-side clearing, with coal, steel, and building materials industries expected to achieve rapid supply-side clearing and a V-shaped recovery in profitability due to their characteristics of high internal competition and high execution efficiency [7][19]. Summary by Sections Current Macroeconomic Background - Industrial enterprises are facing profit pressures, with the PPI continuing to contract, indicating a challenging environment for profitability [9][14]. - The report notes a significant correlation between PPI and industrial profits, suggesting that a recovery in prices is essential for profit recovery [14]. Model and Methodology - A quantitative model was developed to screen industries that would benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, focusing on execution efficiency and internal competition levels [7]. Conclusions and Strategies - The report suggests that industries such as coal, steel, and building materials are likely to be the first to experience supply-side clearing and profitability recovery, making them core areas of focus for investment [7][19].

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收深度报告 固收深度报告 20250811 "反内卷"政策能否复制供给侧改革？—全 方位对比及债市影响剖析 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 重点行业 ◼ 政策举措 2025 年 08 月 11 日 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 徐沐阳 执业证书：S0600523060003 xumy@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《"债不弱，股不强"格局下转债仍 将扮演必要角色》 2025-08-10 《绿色债券周度数据跟踪（20250804- 20250808）》 2025-08-09 东吴证券研究所 1 / 22 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ "反内卷"与供给侧改革全方位对比 ◼ 背景动因 ◼ 2015 年，我国经济正从过去的高速增长期转向中高速增长，工业领域的 产能过剩问题加剧，特别是煤炭、钢铁等传统重工业部门产能利用率持 续走低，全球大宗商品价格调整，企业经营承压。2015 年 11 月 10 日, 中央财经领导小组第十一次会议首次提出"供给侧 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, China's exports exceeded expectations, but container throughput dropped sharply at the beginning of August, and if the trend continues, August may be a turning point [1][11]. - Although the month - on - month PPI growth rate rebounded in July, the year - on - year growth rate remained unchanged. If commodity prices can hold up in August, the year - on - year PPI growth rate may rebound, but the rebound amplitude is expected to be limited [2][17]. - The real estate market continues to be sluggish, with new home sales area at a historical low and the second - hand housing market deteriorating [2][21]. - The bond market is in a volatile state this week. Looking forward, the bond market has investment value, and bond yields may break previous lows [3][35]. Summary by Directory 1. Domestic Economic Data Tracking (1) Export Exceeded Expectations - In July, China's export value was $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, far exceeding the Wind consensus forecast of 5.8% [11]. - Due to the "rush to export", the cumulative growth rate of export value has deviated from the annual average of the new export order index. Exports to the EU and ASEAN remained resilient, while those to the US continued to decline [11]. - Container throughput continued to rise in July but dropped sharply at the beginning of August. If the trend continues, August may be a turning point [1][11]. (2) Supply - side Reform Has Not Been Transmitted to PPI - In July, the year - on - year PPI remained at - 3.6%, the same as in June, due to the base effect. However, the month - on - month PPI growth rate rebounded by 0.2 percentage points compared to June [15][17]. - If commodity prices can hold up in August, the year - on - year PPI growth rate may rebound. However, the rebound amplitude is expected to be limited because the price increase in the upstream is difficult to be transmitted downstream, and overall demand needs to recover. Currently, only the mining and raw material sectors are showing price increases, accounting for about 25% [2][19]. 2. Real Estate Policy Effect Tracking - The Real Estate Market Continued to Perform Sluggishly - The sales area of new homes in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to decline seasonally, remaining lower than the same period in 2024. The sales area of new homes in first - and third - tier cities was lower than in 2024, while that in second - tier cities was basically the same as last year. All are hovering at historical lows [2][21]. - As of July 28, the listing price index of second - hand housing continued to decline overall. The listing price index in first - tier cities rebounded slightly, while those in second - and third - tier cities continued to fall [2][21]. 3. Treasury Bonds: Policy Disturbance Cooled Down, and the Bond Market Remained Volatile - The bond market was relatively stable this week. The central bank conducted a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operation, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan, sending a signal of explicit support [35]. - The upward trend brought by supply - side reform cooled down this week, and the impact on the bond market was not significant. Due to the unfalsifiable expectation of economic recovery brought by policy expectations, the bond market remained volatile [35]. - Looking forward, the overall view is bullish, with short - term volatility expected. The probability of interest rates continuing to decline is relatively high, and it will take time to test the policy effects [35].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the macroeconomic environment in China, focusing on economic cycles, monetary policy, and supply-side reforms. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Cycle Recovery**: The disparity between corporate and household deposit growth is a leading indicator of economic cycles, which has shown signs of recovery over the past 6-9 months, indicating that the worst economic period may be behind [1][2][16]. 2. **Policy Direction**: The Politburo meeting emphasized the release of existing policy effects rather than introducing new stimulus measures, suggesting a shift away from extraordinary policy reliance [1][4]. 3. **Monetary Policy Shift**: The period of the most accommodative monetary policy is over, with a focus on structural functions rather than broad easing. The large scale of precautionary savings among residents poses challenges for the central bank [1][5][17]. 4. **Impact of Household Savings**: The shift of household deposits towards financial investments has improved market liquidity, but it also presents challenges for the central bank in balancing tightening and easing measures [1][6][7]. 5. **Stock vs. Bond Market Dynamics**: Policies have significantly impacted the stock market, enhancing its attractiveness compared to bonds. Despite economic indicators not showing significant recovery, the stock market has seen an increase in its floating ratio due to policy interventions [1][8][12]. 6. **Supply-Side Reforms**: Current supply-side reforms focus on improving energy efficiency in high-energy-consuming industries and enhancing market competition through legal and market-oriented measures [3][9][10]. 7. **Anti-Competition Policies**: The anti-involution policies are aimed at optimizing market competition and addressing issues like improper scale competition and local protectionism, with a focus on legal frameworks rather than administrative measures [11][22]. 8. **Future Economic Indicators**: The next few months are critical for observing leading economic indicators, which could trigger an earlier shift from bonds to stocks if they show sustained improvement [12][19]. 9. **Consumer Policy Outlook**: Consumer policies in the second half of the year are expected to remain stable, focusing on measures to stabilize retail sales, including subsidies and financial incentives [20][21]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Investment Trends**: A decline in manufacturing investment is anticipated, which historically has led to positive outcomes for PPI, suggesting that a reduction in investment could be beneficial for the economy in the long run [19]. 2. **Household and Corporate Deposit Dynamics**: The current state of household and corporate deposit growth is crucial for understanding future economic pressures and consumer behavior, with a noted historical low in the deposit gap [16]. 3. **Long-Term Economic Adjustments**: The adjustments in monetary policy and economic strategies are expected to lead to upward revisions in economic cycles and price assessments, which could negatively impact bonds while improving equity attractiveness [14][18].

Group 1: Historical Insights - The previous supply-side reform period (2016-2017) saw significant pressure on consumption profits due to insufficient transmission of cost pressures from upstream resources and raw materials, leading to a general decline in profit growth across the consumption sector [1][12][21] - During the 2016-2017 period, despite strong demand-side policies, the ability of the consumption sector to pass on cost increases was limited, resulting in a divergence between revenue and profit growth [1][12][17] - Consumer confidence index rose from 103.7 in December 2015 to 122.6 in December 2017, indicating a strong demand environment during the previous reform [12][17] Group 2: Current "Anti-Internal Competition" Insights - The current "anti-internal competition" policy is expected to impose more stringent constraints on supply, particularly in sectors like automotive and express delivery, which may stabilize prices more quickly compared to the previous reform period [1][21] - The consumption sector is facing a more severe demand-side challenge now, with consumer confidence at low levels and growth relying more on "value-for-money" rather than brand premium pricing [1][21] - In July, the retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 1.826 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, but the growth rate significantly slowed from June's 13.3% [1][21] Group 3: Sector-Specific Observations - In the energy and resources sector, coal demand is expected to rise during peak seasons, with July's domestic raw coal production at 42.107 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [22][23] - The real estate sector experienced a significant decline in transaction volume, with July's average daily transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities down 32.3% month-on-month and 18.6% year-on-year [35][37] - The manufacturing sector showed resilience, with strong performance in machinery and equipment exports, and heavy truck sales performing well [5][10]

Inflation Overview - July CPI remained flat year-on-year at 0.0%, better than the market expectation of -0.1% and consistent with prior predictions[1] - Month-on-month CPI increased by 0.4%, compared to a previous value of -0.1%, aligning with seasonal trends[1] - July PPI recorded a year-on-year decline of -3.6%, matching the previous value and falling short of the market expectation of -3.4%[1] CPI Components - Service prices rose by 0.6% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.26 percentage points to the CPI increase[2] - Industrial consumer goods prices increased by 0.5% month-on-month, contributing about 0.17 percentage points to the CPI[2] - Food prices decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year, impacting CPI by approximately -0.29 percentage points[5] PPI Insights - PPI's month-on-month decline of 0.2% was influenced by seasonal factors, including high temperatures and increased rainfall affecting construction demand[7] - Prices in the non-metallic mineral products sector fell by 1.4%, while coal mining prices decreased by 1.5%[7] - The prices of high-tech products, such as aircraft manufacturing, rose by 3.0%, indicating a shift towards high-end industrial development[9] Market Outlook - The market is expected to exhibit a dual bull structure in equities and bonds in the second half of the year, supported by a potential easing of US-China trade relations[1] - A-shares are anticipated to experience a structural rally characterized by alternating low-volatility dividends and technology growth[1] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to decline to around 1.5% amid low probability of large-scale domestic demand stimulus[1]

科技制造产业月报（2025 年 8 月） 反内卷政策如何重塑制造业？ 产业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 （1）短期：低效产能退出，集中度提升，行业利润率回升。通过遏制低价竞 争和淘汰落后产能，迫使低效企业退出市场，加速行业洗牌。头部企业凭借技 术、规模和管理优势扩大市场份额，提升行业集中度。随着低端产能出清，市 场竞争趋于理性，企业定价能力增强，叠加政策对产能扩张的约束，行业利润 率有望持续回升。尽管可能伴随中小企业倒闭和短期就业压力，但这一调整为 后续的产能升级腾挪出市场空间。 （2）中期：反内卷政策正在重塑中国产业竞争的本质，即从"价格战"转向 "价值战"，技术替代成本成为核心竞争力。光伏 N 型电池、氢基炼钢等技术 突破印证了这一趋势，推动资源向高附加值领域集聚。制造业有望形成"研发 -创新-利润增长-再投入"的良性循环，带动高端装备、新材料等新兴产业溢价 能力提升，实现产业质量的系统性跃升。 （3）长期：全球竞争力重塑，推动价值链跃升。中国制造业的国际竞争优势 正经历结构性转变，凭借全球最完整的工业体系以及持续的技术突破和升级， 中国在供应链稳定性、产业配套效率和数字化转型等方面将逐渐构建起新壁 垒。 ...