Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on gold and silver futures from July 7th to July 11th, 2025, covering market analysis, trading strategies, and relevant data for both metals [1][2] Gold Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly at the end of the trend. Short - term fluctuations are driven by the dollar and Fed policy expectations, while long - term factors like de - dollarization, fiscal deficits, and central bank gold purchases support the price. It is recommended to wait and see [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is upward, possibly at the end of the trend [7] - **Judgment Logic**: Last week, the gold price was mainly influenced by the dollar and Fed policy expectations. Dollar weakness and rising rate - cut expectations drove the price up in the first half of the week, while better - than - expected non - farm data led to a price drop in the second half. Geopolitical risks and inflation data provided intermittent support. In the long run, de - dollarization, fiscal deficits, and central bank gold purchases (95% of central banks plan to increase holdings in 2025) support the price, but short - term data fluctuations and position adjustments should be watched [7] - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [8] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The short - term trend of the gold main contract 2510 was bearish, with support at 754 - 760 and resistance at 784 - 790 [11] - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The short - term trend of the gold main contract 2510 remains bearish, with support at 754 - 760 and resistance at 784 - 790 [12] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The report presents data on Shanghai gold and COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, the dollar index, the US dollar against the offshore RMB, the gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price differences through charts [19][21][23] Silver Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is sideways, currently at the beginning of the trend. Although short - term fluctuations are intensifying, silver shows an upward - moving central tendency due to its "safe - haven + industrial" dual attributes. It is recommended to wait and see [31] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is sideways, currently at the beginning of the trend [31] - **Judgment Logic**: Last week, silver prices fluctuated upward. Bullish factors included weakened dollar credit, Fed rate - cut expectations, resilient industrial demand, and technical breakthroughs. Bearish factors were better - than - expected non - farm data delaying rate cuts and high silver inventories (global visible inventory of 15,523 tons). Despite short - term volatility, the upward - moving central tendency remains unchanged [31] - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [31] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The silver contract 2510 was expected to be strong, with support at 8400 - 8500 and resistance at 8900 - 9000 [33] - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The silver contract 2510 is still expected to be strong, with support at 8400 - 8500 and resistance at 8900 - 9000 [33] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The report shows data on Shanghai silver and COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price differences through charts [39][41][43]

Core Viewpoint - The international bond market is facing significant turmoil, particularly with the ongoing issues surrounding U.S. debt, as major economies like China, the U.S., and Japan grapple with rising debt levels and associated risks [1][4][35]. Group 1: U.S. Debt Situation - China has significantly reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, now holding approximately $750 billion, nearly half of its peak [1]. - The U.S. government debt has reached over $30 trillion, with interest payments skyrocketing to over $1.1 trillion, leading to unsustainable fiscal pressures [8][35]. - The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is concerning, with a significant portion of government spending now allocated to interest payments, raising fears of a potential debt crisis [8][21]. Group 2: Credit Rating and Market Demand - The U.S. has seen multiple downgrades in its sovereign credit rating due to political gridlock and rising debt levels, which has diminished investor confidence [10][11]. - A recent auction of U.S. debt saw $72 billion go unsold, indicating a lack of demand for U.S. Treasury bonds [11]. - The Federal Reserve has stepped in to purchase over $40 billion in U.S. debt in May alone, highlighting the imbalance between supply and demand in the bond market [12][13]. Group 3: Japan's Debt Challenges - Japan's debt stands at approximately 1,323 trillion yen (around $9.2 trillion), which is 219% of its GDP, raising significant market concerns [24][35]. - The Bank of Japan has been actively purchasing government bonds to stabilize prices, but this approach is unsustainable in the long term [26][30]. - Japan faces a lack of investment attractiveness due to low bond yields and high credit risk, leading to a potential sell-off in its bond market [29][30]. Group 4: China's Debt Management - China's total debt is approximately 88.1 trillion yuan (around $12.3 trillion), with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 65%, which is relatively lower compared to the U.S. and Japan [35][40]. - The Chinese government has been proactive in managing its debt, reducing interest rates to alleviate the burden on borrowers and stimulate economic growth [41]. - Despite challenges such as hidden local government debts, China's economic resilience and growth potential provide a more favorable outlook compared to the U.S. and Japan [41][43].

Group 1: Rise of the Renminbi - The Renminbi has become the world's second-largest trade financing currency and the third-largest payment currency, marking a significant shift in the global economic landscape [1][5] - The rapid rise of the Renminbi is attributed to the differences in data sources, with China’s independent Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) facilitating significant trade volumes that bypass Western systems [3][5] - Despite the Renminbi's international reserve share being only 2.18%, its influence in trade financing has surpassed the Euro, indicating a substantial underlying economic strength [5][12] Group 2: Challenges to Dollar Dominance - The U.S. dollar's dominance is being challenged by internal issues such as the U.S. debt crisis, inflation, and frequent interest rate adjustments, which have eroded investor confidence [9][11] - The U.S. military's perceived inability to maintain global security, as evidenced by conflicts like the Israel-Palestine situation, further diminishes the dollar's appeal as a safe haven currency [11] Group 3: Internal Drivers of Renminbi Growth - China's expansion of trade partnerships, particularly with Russia and African nations, has significantly increased the use of the Renminbi in international trade [12][14] - The Renminbi is viewed as a more stable alternative to the dollar, especially in times of global economic uncertainty, making it an attractive option for countries seeking to diversify their currency reserves [12][14] Group 4: Future Outlook - The potential decline of dollar hegemony is imminent, but the Renminbi's rise will require sustained efforts to enhance its international influence and the adoption of its payment systems [14][16] - The transition from dollar dominance to a more multipolar currency system will take time, and the Renminbi must continue to build its credibility and usage in global transactions [16]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve faces intense pressure regarding interest rate decisions, with significant implications for U.S. debt and economic stability, as political and financial dynamics intertwine [1][3][10] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a willingness to lower interest rates if inflation is under control, leading to a surge in market expectations for a July rate cut from 18.6% to 77.3% [1] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are evident, with some members advocating for immediate rate cuts, reflecting a shift in sentiment amid political pressures [3][8] - The Fed's dot plot reveals a split among committee members, with some predicting no rate cuts until 2025, while others foresee at least two cuts, highlighting uncertainty in monetary policy direction [8] Group 2: U.S. Debt and Economic Implications - The U.S. national debt has reached $36.2 trillion, with interest payments projected to exceed military spending and rise to $952 billion by 2025, indicating a growing fiscal burden [1][3] - A report warns that the U.S. debt exhibits characteristics of a "Ponzi scheme," with debt-to-GDP ratio at 123%, significantly above the 60% international warning threshold [6] - The potential for a debt crisis in 2025 is underscored by the need to refinance $9.3 trillion in maturing debt, which constitutes one-third of total public debt [3][6] Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Following Powell's comments, the S&P 500 index rose by 1.11%, while U.S. Treasury yields fell, indicating a strong market reaction to the prospect of rate cuts [4] - Economic indicators present a mixed picture, with a healthy unemployment rate of 4.2% contrasted by rising initial jobless claims and a significant drop in consumer confidence [6][8] - The impact of tariffs under Trump's policies is projected to increase inflation, with potential long-term economic consequences [6][8] Group 4: Global Economic Context - The trend of de-dollarization is accelerating, with central banks globally reducing their dollar reserves, leading to a 57.4% share of dollar reserves, the lowest in 30 years [6] - The shift towards gold as a reserve asset is evident, with countries like Poland, China, and Turkey increasing their gold holdings, reflecting a loss of confidence in the dollar [6][10] - The Federal Reserve's decisions are seen as critical in determining the future of the dollar's dominance in the global financial system [10]

Market Activity - The A-share market remains active with trading volumes exceeding 1 trillion yuan for 19 consecutive trading days as of June 24, indicating sustained investor enthusiasm [1] - The margin trading balance in the A-share market has been above 1.8 trillion yuan for 15 consecutive trading days in June, reaching 18,220.06 billion yuan, which accounts for 2.25% of the A-share circulating market value [1] - In June, there were 12 trading days where the margin buying amount exceeded 100 billion yuan [1] Margin Trading Trends - A brokerage firm in East China reported a month-on-month increase in margin trading balances since the beginning of the year, with a notable rise in high-value clients [3] - Margin trading balances are used to gauge market activity and investor sentiment, with a peak of 19,460.86 billion yuan in March, the highest since 2015 [4] - Following a decline in April, margin trading has stabilized between 1.7 trillion and 1.8 trillion yuan since May [4] Sector Preferences - The top five sectors favored by margin trading funds from June 16 to June 23 include electronics, non-bank financials, computers, biomedicine, and power equipment, with respective market value shares of 3.17%, 2.75%, 4.29%, 2.71%, and 2.91% [4] - Recent stocks with significant increases in margin balances include Haike Xinyuan, Chizheng Co., Huawai Design, Yihua New Materials, and Yishi Precision [4][5] Investment Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent recovery in leveraged funds indicates increased investor confidence in the market [5] - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with improving performance, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and brokerage firms, as well as stablecoin concept stocks that have recently gained traction [6] - The outlook for the A-share market in the second half of the year is optimistic, with expectations of foreign capital inflows and a focus on high-quality companies in finance, consumption, and pharmaceuticals [7] Investment Strategies - Key investment themes for the second half of the year include the recovery of the real estate cycle, overlooked consumer demand, and increased capital expenditure in high-tech sectors [8] - Recommended investment opportunities include financials with high dividends, emerging technology sectors, and cyclical consumer goods that are expected to benefit from improved competition and supply-demand dynamics [8] - The Chinese equity market is anticipated to outperform overseas markets, with strong policy support for growth sectors likely to attract more attention to emerging high-growth areas [8]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.20」 贵金属市场周报 联储释放鹰派信号，金价短期持续承压 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 取 更 多 资 讯 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 ◆ 行情回顾：受美元走强以及强于预期的鹰派美联储基调影响，本周贵金属市场震荡走弱。政策面上， 美联储于6月18日维持利率按兵不动，并在最新点阵图中维持今年两次降息的中位预期，但鲍威尔强 调关税对通胀的传导性或令未来降息路径更为缓慢，本次较为鹰派的发言短线提振美元并施压金价。 近期多项美国经济数据展现疲软态势，进一步加剧了市场对经济前景的担忧。美国5月零售销售、房 地产和工业产出均弱于预期，零售销售环比下降、房屋开工和制造业产出出现回落，凸显经济活动 正面临明显放缓；此外，上周初请失业金人数意外攀升，也暗示劳动力市场韧性有所减弱，经济数 据走弱也将为美联储未来降息提供依据。世界黄金协会发布的调查显示，73家央行中有76%预计未来 五年将持续增持黄金以分散对美元资产的依赖，凸显 ...

国盛证券表示，5月美国CPI录得2.4%，低预期的通胀和高频就业数据的走弱使得市场定价美联储降 息，美债利率下滑推动黄金上涨。此外，中东地缘局势出现新的转折点，市场避险情绪推升国际金价打 破盘整震荡行情走势，金银比出现了一定成的回升，黄金将再次反弹至高位。 东吴证券指出，过去一周美元指数下行叠加地缘冲突加剧，黄金录得环比大幅上行。展望未来，若中东 地缘冲突进一步恶化导致原油价格上行，叠加我们预计美国再通胀进程将显著加快，黄金或持续受益于 实际利率的下行。 （本文机构观点来自持牌证券机构，不构成任何投资建议，亦不代表平台观点，请投资人独立判断和决 策。） 金价走强背景下，相关黄金ETF方面，上海金ETF（159830）盘中涨0.65%，成交额超1400万元。 上海金ETF（159830）紧密跟踪上海金（SHAU.SGE）；费率方面，上海金ETF（159830）管理费率 0.25%，基金托管费率为0.05%，均低于同标的产品平均水平，同时该ETF支持T+0交易。该ETF还配置 了场外联接基金（联接A：014661，联接C：014662）。 消息面上，据中国证券报，受中东地缘局势危机影响，近日国际原油、黄金价格携手 ...

Group 1: Oil Market Insights - On June 13, international crude oil prices surged significantly, with WTI crude futures rising over 14% to a peak of $77.62 per barrel, the highest since January 21 of this year [1][2] - Domestic crude oil futures also saw a spike, reaching a limit-up price of 535.2 yuan per barrel, marking a new high since April 7, before closing at 529.9 yuan per barrel, up 7.9% [2] - Analysts attribute the surge in oil prices to escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East, a weaker dollar due to lower-than-expected U.S. CPI data, and strong fundamentals in the oil market [2][4] Group 2: Gold Market Developments - International gold prices also rose sharply, with London spot gold exceeding $3440 per ounce, reaching a high of $3444.49 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures hitting $3467 per ounce, both marking new highs since April 22 [1][3] - The increase in gold prices is driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and a decline in U.S. economic data, which has raised expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [3][5] - Domestic gold futures also experienced significant gains, with the main contract closing at 794.36 yuan per gram, up 1.72%, and peaking at 801.14 yuan per gram, the first time surpassing 800 yuan per gram since May 9 [3] Group 3: Future Price Projections - Analysts suggest that while short-term volatility in oil prices is expected due to market speculation, gold may exhibit stronger long-term performance due to its monetary and safe-haven attributes [4][5] - The potential for gold prices to reach between $3000 and $3200 per ounce for long positions, with a possibility of surpassing $3500 per ounce if geopolitical conflicts persist, is highlighted [5] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the shift in monetary policy are likely to support gold prices, with projections indicating a potential rise to $3800 per ounce in the future [5]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Spot gold prices surpassed $3,370 per ounce, currently at $3,372.26, with a 0.52% increase [1] - Gold ETF (159937) rose by 1.01%, with a turnover rate of 0.57% and a transaction amount of 163 million yuan [1] - Gold has become the second-largest reserve asset globally, with its share in foreign exchange reserves rising to 20%, surpassing the euro [3] - The dollar's market share in global reserves is declining, projected to drop by 2 percentage points in 2024, while the euro's share slightly increases [3] Group 2: Economic and Trade Developments - The first meeting of the China-U.S. economic and trade negotiation mechanism took place in London, achieving a consensus on key economic issues [4] - Both sides aim to enhance cooperation and reduce misunderstandings following the recent discussions between the two countries' leaders [4] Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The U.S. CPI rose by 2.4% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month in May, with core CPI at 2.8% year-on-year, both figures below expectations [5] - Following the CPI data, there is increased speculation on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 75% probability of a cut before September [5] Group 4: Jewelry Market Trends - Gold jewelry prices have exceeded 1,000 yuan per gram, with various brands reporting prices between 1,003 and 1,009 yuan per gram [6] - Gold futures prices have retreated about 2% from the historical high set in April, with forecasts suggesting gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-next year [6] - Long-term investment in gold ETFs is recommended due to their low cost and diverse trading options, as well as their role in hedging against economic downturns [6]

若债务违约真的发生，美国的信用体系将遭遇重创，美元在全球供应链中的地位可能动摇。美元作为全球主要结算货币，依赖美国主权信用。一 旦违约，全球股市可能暴跌，避险资产如黄金和美债的收益率倒挂将大幅攀升，全球经济复苏也可能因此遭遇重大冲击。尽管CBO推迟了"X 日"的预测，问题的本质并未得到有效解决。市场对"美式债务游戏"的信任已经逐渐消耗，长期来看，这可能加速全球去美元化进程。 美国债务违约风险的"X日"临近，美联储的最新发声引发市场关注。与此同时，亚洲散户纷纷趁机低买美股，短期获利后迅速撤离。对于这一局 面，特朗普政府仍在推动政策以扩大财政赤字，并对解决美国债务危机做出一系列大胆尝试。 2025年初，美国债务上限重新生效。目前，美国财政部通过采取"非常规措施"来维持财政运转，这些措施包括临时会计操作等，避免了立即触发 债务违约。美国历史上已进行过103次债务上限的提升，然而此次违约风险日益严峻。美国国会预算办公室（CBO）预测，如果债务上限未能如 期提高，特朗普政府可能会在2025年8月中旬耗尽这些"非常规措施"，最迟会在9月底面临"X日"——即无法再偿还债务，进入违约状态。 虽然该预测比CBO三月的预期有所推 ...