Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices has sparked intense discussions about future price movements, with predictions ranging from a rise of 2000 RMB per gram to a drop of 500 RMB per gram [1] Group 1: International Gold Market Trends - The long-term trend of international gold prices has been upward, driven by global economic uncertainties that make gold a preferred safe-haven asset [3] - Central banks have been significant players in the gold market, with record-high purchases aimed at enhancing financial stability and responding to global economic conditions [3][5] Group 2: Domestic Gold Price Predictions - Some analysts predict that by early 2026, gold prices could reach 4500 USD per ounce, translating to approximately 2500 RMB per gram in the domestic market [5][9] - Current domestic gold prices hover around 1000 RMB per gram, indicating a substantial gap from the predicted target of 2000 RMB per gram [5][11] Group 3: Market Sensitivity and Influencing Factors - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are highly sensitive to market sentiment and policy changes, which can lead to significant price volatility [7] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertain U.S. economic policies continue to bolster gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [7][9] Group 4: Long-term Price Stability - Predictions suggest that by 2026, domestic gold prices will likely stabilize around 1500 RMB per gram, reflecting moderate adjustments in line with international gold prices [11] - The trend of de-dollarization and sustained central bank demand for gold are expected to support long-term price stability [9][11]

各位朋友好，我是帮主郑重，20年财经老炮儿，专唠中长线投资那些事儿。今儿咱聊聊国际金价这事儿——最近金价又开始往上窜了，不少朋友问我：这波 涨势能稳住不？咱得好好掰扯掰扯。 以色列和美军联手空袭也门荷台达港，胡塞武装直接放话要报复，这火药味浓得能点着美股。再加上俄乌冲突还在拉锯，资金慌不择路往黄金里钻。就像打 仗时老百姓囤粮食，现在全球资本也在囤黄金避险，这就是为啥金价能扛住美元反弹往上走。 再来说说央行的动作。世界黄金协会的数据显示，一季度全球央行净买了244吨黄金，虽说比去年少了点，但这相当于每天买2.7吨，比某些小国全年的产量 还多。中国央行更是连续16个月增持，官方储备都快摸到2300吨了。这些大金主们用真金白银给金价撑腰，这基础能不稳吗？ 不过，帮主得泼盆冷水。美联储这只"鹰"虽然暂时不加息，但6月降息的概率已经降到34%，要是美国经济数据继续走强，降息预期还得往后推。到时候美 元可能更强，金价就得承压。而且黄金ETF最近资金流动有点纠结，4月底有1689亿资金撤离，但5月6号又有4.8亿进来，这说明市场分歧挺大，短期波动少 不了。 先给大伙报个数：5月6号现货黄金冲到了3369美元一盎司，上海金交 ...

整体来看，尽管短期需警惕技术性回调风险，但多重宏观因子仍支撑黄金长期走牛：美元指数中枢下 移、全球滞胀风险升温、央行购金常态化形成三重复合驱动，黄金作为避险资产和财富保值的价值凸 显。 2025年开年以来，国际黄金市场呈现持续走强态势，领跑全球大类资产。虽然4月3日受美国加征关税政 策冲击，黄金价格随全球风险资产同步下挫，但其凭借优异的流动性优势率先实现V型反弹。4月22日 盘中更创下3500美元/盎司历史新高，成功突破关键整数阻力位。 多重因素推动之下，黄金成为资本投资的较优选择，在投资者的争相追逐中表现亮眼。本轮黄金上涨的 核心驱动要素包括：1、信用体系重构：特朗普政府重启关税政策引发美元资产抛售潮，美股、美债及 美元指数同步承压。美联储政策独立性遭受质疑，全球货币体系稳定性降低，黄金作为终极信用对冲工 具的价值凸显。2、地缘政治溢价：俄乌冲突常态化与美伊核谈判僵局形成双重风险敞口，叠加中东局 势持续紧张，避险需求维持高位运行。3、央行储备多元化：Q1全球央行黄金净购入量达224吨，中俄 等新兴经济体增持规模同比激增38%，机构配置需求形成强力支撑。 中期维度来看，后市黄金依然处于上涨通道，首先，全球去美 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices have recently declined, with the latest data showing a drop to 782 yuan per gram, down from previous highs [1] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to three main factors: a shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations, easing geopolitical tensions, and technical profit-taking [1] - There is a notable divergence between physical gold and paper gold, with physical gold demand remaining strong as evidenced by the premium on Au99.99 in the Shanghai Gold Exchange [1] Group 2 - A price comparison among major banks reveals a maximum price difference of 13 yuan per gram, indicating that larger banks tend to have higher pricing due to brand premium and channel costs [2] - Investors can benefit from purchasing gold through bank apps, which typically offer prices 2-3 yuan lower per gram compared to counter prices [2] Group 3 - Investors are advised to monitor U.S. non-farm payroll data and CPI indicators, consider asset allocation with gold comprising 10%-15% of their portfolio, and choose low-fee investment channels like gold ETFs [3] - Caution is advised against blindly shorting gold, ignoring currency fluctuations, and making all-in bets due to the high volatility of gold [3] - Historical data indicates a 67% probability of seasonal declines in gold prices during April-May, but an average increase of 6.8% in the following third quarter [3]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 高位调整 | 特朗普战术上口风放缓，但谈判过程仍然不确定，脱钩仍是主要矛盾，购金力 量仍然较多，长期看，国际秩序破坏，不确定困扰持续，各经济体购金动力积 | | | | 极，黄金是成为未来秩序的重要筹码。长期战略配置价值持续存在【766-800】 | | | | 关税放缓缓解了经济增长忧虑，白银等基本金属情绪有所好转，但长期看细则 | | 白银 | 宽幅调整 | 落地尚需时日。白银弹性大跟随黄金和基本金属波动，仍处于大的震荡区间附 | | | | 近，操作上区间思路对待，秩序将改变，金银比或短期失效。【8000-8500】 | | | | 特朗普改口降低对华关税，但只是缓兵之计，其不确定性是市场主要风险来源，政 治局会议临近，市场情绪回暖，国内需求韧性显现，库存连续去化，短期多单谨慎 | | 铜 | 反弹 | | | | | 持有，回调背靠下方均线把握逢低试多机会，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间 | | | | 【76500，79500】 | | 锌 | 反弹承压 | 锌精矿供应平稳增长，终端需求偏弱，锌 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 短期调整不改黄金强势逻辑。G2 大国多方面博弈剧烈，特朗普要求鲍威尔下 | | 黄金 | 强势 | 台，多国或流动性释放刺激经济经济。长期看，国际秩序破坏，不确定困扰持 | | | | 续，各经济体购金动力积极，黄金长期战略配置价值持续存在【740-780】 | | | | 基本面上全球需求释放或再现，商品市场波动剧烈，尽管中国和欧洲刺激预期 | | 白银 | 宽幅调整 | 较大，但是短期需警惕流动性危机。品种属性方面，白银弹性大跟随黄金和基 | | | | 本金属波动，仍处于大的震荡区间附近，操作上区间思路对待。【8000-8500】 | | | | 特朗普，美国关税政策的不确定性加剧市场恐慌和混乱，美元指数走弱，铜延续反 | | 铜 | 反弹 | 弹，短期铜背靠下方均线，把握逢低试多机会，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间 | | | | 【75000，77000】 | | 锌 | 反弹承压 | 海内外库存累积，终端需求偏弱，锌震荡偏弱，空单可部分逢低止盈兑现，中 | | | | 长期看，锌供 ...

Group 1: Market Trends and Economic Indicators - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose sharply from 4.0% to approximately 4.5% in two trading days, despite weakening economic fundamentals[1] - The recent sell-off in long-term U.S. Treasuries reflects tightening liquidity and/or rising risk premiums rather than economic fundamentals[2] - The U.S. recession risk is increasing, leading to more interest rate cut expectations being priced into short-term Treasuries[2] Group 2: Capital Flows and Trade Policies - Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs are expected to reduce capital account surpluses, leading to capital outflows from the U.S. and selling of dollar assets[3] - The U.S. budget resolution passed in February plans to increase deficits by $2.8 trillion over the next ten years, with an average deficit rate of 5.7%[3] - The net issuance of U.S. Treasuries is expected to rise this year, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances and putting upward pressure on Treasury yields[3] Group 3: Long-term Implications and Global Trends - The goal of being a financial and manufacturing powerhouse may be incompatible, as tariffs could distort prices and increase global inefficiencies[3] - The acceleration of global de-dollarization is anticipated, with increased demand for non-dollar safe-haven assets like gold[5] - The volatility of U.S. Treasury yields is expected to increase due to the conflicting impacts of capital flows and economic fundamentals[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market index by more than 15% over the next six months [4][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 303.64 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.49%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 32.05 billion yuan, up 51.76% year-on-year [4]. - The company's main metal production saw significant increases, with copper production at 1.07 million tons and gold production at 73 tons, reflecting growth rates of 6% and 8% respectively [4]. - The company has made substantial progress in resource exploration, with significant discoveries in various regions, enhancing its resource reserves and production capacity [4]. - The report anticipates continued growth in copper and gold prices, driven by supply disruptions and increasing demand from the renewable energy sector, which supports the company's revenue growth outlook [4]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 20.37%, an increase of 4.56 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 12.97%, up 3.92 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The forecast for 2025 and 2026 projects earnings per share of 1.44 yuan and 1.75 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 12.57 and 10.34 [5].