转自：新华财经 新华财经北京11月19日电 本周伊始，国际现货金价震荡企稳。尤其是周一（11月18日），国际金价盘 中跌破4000美元关口后企稳回升，日涨0.54%。随着金价日K线走出带有长下影线的小阳线形态，短期 暂时守稳4000美元整数，预计或将维持震荡反复行情。 基本面上分析来看，美国政府停摆结束已告一段落，美联储降息预期降温成为抑制当前金价的最大影响 因素。近期，美联储官员的表态显示内部分歧进一步加深，美联储降息概率从早期的80%以上降至60% 左右，而随着多位美联储官员先后发表鹰派表态，市场对12月降息的预期进一步降低，特别是美联储副 主席杰斐逊明确表示"进一步降息需要缓慢推进"之后，市场对12月降息的押注一度降至40%左右。目前 虽有部分美联储官员仍然支持降息，但或仍将是"风险管理式"的预防性降息。 与此同时，地缘政治方面再现不确定性，特朗普暗示可能扩大在拉丁美洲的军事行动范围，这一表态可 能推升市场的避险需求。 综合而言，降息预期继续对短期金价形成压制作用，而地缘局势的紧张限制了金价的下行空间。从基本 面看短期金价将继续维持震荡横盘格局。不过，部分央行持续增持黄金，全球去美元化的货币重构背景 没 ...

Core Points - The article discusses the contrasting treatment of countries by the United States regarding trade with Russia, highlighting a proposed 500% tariff on nations maintaining such trade, particularly targeting India [1][3][5] Group 1: U.S. Sanctions and Tariffs - The U.S. has a history of inconsistent policies, recently emphasizing sanctions against countries trading with Russia, proposing a 500% tax [1][3] - In 2025, the U.S. government granted Hungary a one-year exemption from energy sanctions, allowing continued imports of Russian oil, while simultaneously pushing for tariffs on other nations [3][5] - The U.S. has implemented over 15,000 sanctions against Russia since the onset of the Ukraine conflict, with more than 3,500 led by the U.S. [6][8] Group 2: India's Oil Trade with Russia - India has significantly increased its imports of Russian oil, which constituted 35% of its total oil imports by Q3 2025, up from 4.2% in 2022 [10] - Indian refineries process Russian crude oil, with approximately 20% of the refined products exported to Europe and the U.S., generating substantial profits due to lower prices [11] - The U.S. has accused India of profiting from low-priced Russian oil, while India has been exploring alternative payment mechanisms to mitigate the impact of U.S. sanctions [18][20] Group 3: U.S. Double Standards - The U.S. imports significant amounts of Russian goods, including 22% of its nuclear fuel and 18% of titanium, while maintaining a narrative of sanctions against Russia [13][15] - The effectiveness of U.S. sanctions has been questioned, with reports indicating that Russia's economy grew by 2.3% in 2024 despite sanctions [15][16] - The U.S. sanctions policy appears to favor allies who comply with its demands, as seen in Hungary's exemption due to energy agreements, contrasting with India's refusal to accept similar conditions [20][24] Group 4: Global Economic Implications - The article suggests that the U.S. approach to sanctions is fostering a trend towards de-dollarization, with countries like India, Turkey, and Brazil seeking non-dollar trade settlements with Russia [22][24] - The share of regional currency settlements in global trade has increased from 12% in 2022 to 18% in 2025, indicating a shift towards a multipolar economic landscape [22] - The U.S. unilateral sanctions are perceived as undermining its credibility and may lead to a decline in its hegemonic status in global affairs [24]

Core Viewpoint - Recent hawkish comments from multiple Federal Reserve officials have raised concerns about inflation, dampening expectations for interest rate cuts. The end of the U.S. government shutdown has reduced the short-term appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset, but ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions may continue to drive demand for safe-haven investments like gold [1]. Group 1: Economic Environment - The U.S. government is facing multiple issues despite the end of the shutdown, contributing to macroeconomic uncertainty [1]. - Geopolitical tensions are likely to persist, which may stimulate safe-haven demand for gold [1]. Group 2: Gold Price Outlook - Short-term gold prices are expected to remain volatile, while the medium to long-term outlook suggests potential upward movement due to factors such as the Federal Reserve potentially starting a rate-cutting cycle, increasing uncertainty in overseas macroeconomic policies, and a global trend towards de-dollarization [1]. - Investors are advised to consider gradual accumulation of gold during price dips, with a focus on direct investment in physical gold and specific gold-related ETFs [1].

Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett indicated that the GDP is expected to decline by 1.5% in the fourth quarter due to the government shutdown, signaling a slowdown in economic momentum which may weaken the dollar and enhance the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - Hassett's dovish statement suggests that there are few reasons to avoid interest rate cuts, which aligns with market expectations for a shift in monetary policy, potentially lowering interest rates and reducing the holding costs of gold, thus providing fundamental support for gold prices [1] - The chaotic economic data and uncertainty create a favorable environment for gold prices, as the government shutdown has resulted in a significant loss of $1.5 trillion, with the full impact taking weeks or months to clarify, leading investors to seek hard assets like gold to hedge against uncertainty [1] Structural Changes - Deep structural changes globally are undermining the dollar system, with European financial stability officials discussing the establishment of an alternative liquidity support mechanism to the Federal Reserve, aiming to reduce reliance on the U.S. under the Trump administration [2] - This movement reflects a continued trend of de-dollarization and deep concerns regarding the reliability of U.S. political and policy frameworks, which could ultimately weaken the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency [2] - A loss of confidence in the dollar could significantly enhance gold's monetary attributes and its function as a store of value [2] Technical Analysis - Gold (XAUUSD) has shown a strong upward trend, reaching a high of approximately 4244.9 before a pullback, with bullish momentum indicated by the price crossing above the MA60, suggesting potential for further upward movement [5] - The CCI indicator is in the overbought zone and may indicate a short-term pullback opportunity, with a strategy focused on finding support levels to enter long positions [5] Trading Strategy - For gold, a long position is suggested around 4199.0 with a stop loss at 4189.0 and a target range of 4220.0 to 4244.9 [6] - Silver (XAGUSD) has also shown a strong upward trend, with the price crossing above MA20 and MA60, indicating continued bullish momentum [9] - A long position for silver is recommended around 52.94 with a stop loss at 52.70 and a target range of 54.29 to 55.50 [10] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases include the Eurozone's adjusted trade balance for September, U.S. retail sales for October, and PPI figures for October, which may impact market sentiment and trading strategies [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to pending expectations regarding U.S. economic policies and geopolitical tensions, while the long-term logic supporting gold investment remains intact [1][2][3] Group 1: Recent Market Dynamics - Gold prices have stabilized around $4000 per ounce after experiencing significant volatility [1] - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. Supreme Court's decision on tariffs could lead to a weakening of the U.S. government's fiscal capacity, potentially boosting gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - Divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts in December contributes to the current market uncertainty, with a 70% probability of a 25 basis point cut being projected [2] Group 2: Long-term Support for Gold - The shift in U.S. monetary policy remains a key driver for gold prices, with recent economic data indicating no significant improvement in the U.S. economy [2] - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, including the Russia-Ukraine situation and tensions in Venezuela and Iran, continue to provide strong support for gold prices [2][3] - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with China's reserves reaching 74.09 million ounces, marking the 12th consecutive month of increases [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The new tax policy on gold in China makes gold ETFs an attractive investment option, offering tax benefits, low costs, and high liquidity [4] - Shanghai Gold ETF (159834) is highlighted as a superior choice compared to traditional gold ETFs due to its broader investment scope and lower transaction costs [5][6] - The overall precious metals sector has shown significant growth, with the precious metals index up 67.93% year-to-date, while other metal sectors have outperformed, indicating a recovery and growth opportunity in the broader metals market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in gold and gold stocks are primarily due to a temporary easing of risk aversion, leading to some profit-taking, but the long-term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged [2][4] Group 1: Market Performance - After a significant rise since August, COMEX gold peaked at $4,398 per ounce in late October and has since consolidated around the $4,000 mark, closing at $4,007.8 on November 7, with a slight increase of 0.42% [2] - As of November 7, domestic gold ETFs have seen a total net subscription of 27.3 million shares in November, with the largest being Huaan Gold ETF, which gained 6.97 million shares [3] Group 2: Investment Trends - Several funds have begun recommending gold ETFs, with a notable allocation of 15% to Huaan Gold ETF by a wealth management product, reflecting a strategic shift towards gold amid increased market volatility [4] - The fund managers believe that the recent gold price adjustments are indicative of a temporary easing of geopolitical risks, and they anticipate a new cycle for gold driven by its monetary attributes in response to dollar credit issues [4] Group 3: Tax Implications and Investment Strategy - The recent tax changes on gold do not directly affect gold prices but increase the transaction costs for physical gold, while gold ETFs remain unaffected as they do not involve physical delivery [5] - It is recommended to adopt a dollar-cost averaging strategy for long-term investments in gold ETFs, with a suggested allocation of 5% to 15% of total assets [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices, particularly around the $4000 per ounce mark, have raised questions about its investment value, with a notable increase in inflows into gold ETFs despite recent price corrections [3][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - After reaching a new high of $4398 per ounce in late October, COMEX gold has since corrected and is currently stabilizing around $4000 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.42% to $4007.8 per ounce on November 7 [1]. - The total net subscription for gold ETFs has reached approximately 273 million shares since the beginning of November, indicating strong investor interest [4]. Group 2: Fund Inflows and Performance - Several gold ETFs have experienced a rebound, with some products seeing a cumulative increase of over 3% from November 5 to November 7, 2023 [4]. - The largest domestic gold ETF, Huaan Gold ETF, has seen a net subscription of 69.7 million shares, while another ETF, Huaxia Gold ETF, followed closely with 67 million shares [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Outlook - Fund managers suggest that the recent adjustments in gold prices are primarily due to a temporary easing of risk aversion, but the long-term investment logic for gold remains intact [5]. - The ongoing trend of de-dollarization and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to support gold's long-term performance, with recommendations for investors to consider a systematic investment approach in gold ETFs, maintaining a portfolio allocation of 5% to 15% [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The global technology sector is under pressure due to concerns over the valuation bubble in US tech stocks, but the Hong Kong tech sector remains attractive for long-term investment due to stable domestic fundamentals, potential continuation of the Fed's interest rate cuts, and ongoing innovation in domestic companies [1]. Fund Flow Analysis - Despite recent fluctuations in the Hong Kong tech sector, funds continue to flow into ETFs, with the Hang Seng Tech ETF (513130) attracting a total of 2.13 billion yuan over three trading days (November 3-5), making it the only ETF tracking the Hang Seng Tech Index to exceed 2 billion yuan in inflows during this period [1]. - On November 5, the Hang Seng Tech ETF saw a record single-day net inflow of 1.2 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception on May 24, 2021, with a trading volume of 6.809 billion yuan, up 26% from the previous day [1]. Fund Performance - The Hang Seng Tech ETF has experienced positive growth in fund shares for eleven consecutive trading days (October 21 - November 5), with a net subscription of 1.572 billion shares on November 5, bringing the total fund size to 55.188 billion shares, a new record since its inception [1]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index, closely tracked by the ETF, includes 30 strong R&D internet and manufacturing tech companies, showcasing a significant "global valuation gap" with current P/E and P/B ratios at approximately 53% and 44% of those of the Nasdaq Index, respectively [1]. Market Dynamics - According to CICC, the Hong Kong market has been active and leading globally this year, characterized by a highly structured rotation, with capital inflows driven by both global "de-dollarization" narratives and domestic investors seeking higher returns amid a lack of investment opportunities [1]. - The Hang Seng Tech ETF is positioned as a key tool for investors looking to allocate to core assets in the Hong Kong tech sector, benefiting from its large scale, superior liquidity, and low management fee of 0.2% per year [1]. Management and Experience - The manager of the Hang Seng Tech ETF, Huatai-PB Fund, is one of the first ETF managers in China, with over 18 years of experience in ETF operations, having launched several leading ETFs in the A-share market [1].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal mining sector is experiencing a correction, but the mining ETF (561330) has shown a year-to-date increase of over 80%, indicating potential for re-entry after the pullback [1]. Group 1: Copper Market Insights - The copper market is facing supply disruptions, with Antofagasta, a major Chilean copper producer, announcing that its 25-year copper production may only meet the lower guidance limit due to inflation-related capital expenditure cuts [3]. - Several projects, including Kamoa-Kakula and Grasberg, have lowered their medium-term production guidance by nearly 500,000 tons, leading to a significant reduction in copper supply growth compared to last year [3]. - The mid-term copper supply is expected to remain tight, providing upward support for copper prices [3]. Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - After a rapid increase over the past two months, gold prices are experiencing heightened volatility, but the long-term upward trend remains intact [3]. - Factors such as excessive money supply, fiscal deficit monetization, and global geopolitical instability are driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - The combination of a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle, increased macroeconomic uncertainty abroad, and a global trend towards de-dollarization is expected to support gold prices in the medium to long term [3]. Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Outlook - According to Dongfang Securities, the non-ferrous metals sector is entering a new cycle driven by supply-demand balance, resource strategic importance, and the transformation of old and new industries [4]. - Industrial metals like copper are gaining attention due to improved supply-demand dynamics, while strategic resources such as lithium and rare earths are seeing sustained demand growth amid the energy transition [4]. - Overall, the non-ferrous metals industry is benefiting from structural supply-demand contradictions and the overlapping demands of new and old industries, exhibiting independent operational characteristics [4]. Group 4: Mining ETF (561330) Performance - The mining ETF (561330) has outperformed the CSI Non-Ferrous Index by nearly 10% year-to-date as of October 31, 2025, due to its concentrated holdings in leading companies [5]. - The ETF tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Theme Index, which consists of 37 components, with the top ten stocks accounting for 7.26% of the index, indicating a more precise capture of market trends compared to the broader index [5]. - The higher concentration of gold, copper, and rare earths in the mining ETF, which makes up 54.9% of the index, enhances its responsiveness to favorable catalysts in these sectors [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant decline in gold prices, dropping nearly $500 per ounce in seven trading days, is attributed to improved risk appetite due to easing U.S.-China trade tensions and potential central bank gold sales [1][2][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - As of October 28, spot gold prices fell to $3,886.3 per ounce, down from a peak of $4,381.11 per ounce [1]. - Gold-related ETFs experienced declines, with 14 ETFs dropping over 3.5%, and the largest decline seen in the gold fund ETF (159812) at 3.66% [1]. - The price of silver also dropped significantly, with a decline of 3.36% followed by an additional 2.2% drop, bringing its price down from $54.453 per ounce to around $46 per ounce, marking a maximum retracement of 16% [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Analysis - Analysts suggest that the easing of U.S.-China trade relations and reduced risk aversion are key factors contributing to the decline in gold prices [2][6]. - Despite the recent downturn, long-term factors such as expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts may support gold prices in the future [2][6]. - Market analysts believe that the current price adjustments are a temporary consolidation phase rather than a signal of a peak in gold prices, with expectations of a potential rise above $4,500 per ounce next year [6][7]. Group 3: Company Performance - Despite the drop in gold prices, companies like Zijin Mining reported a revenue of 254.2 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 10.33% [5]. - Hunan Gold's third-quarter revenue reached 127.58 billion yuan, up 117.91% year-on-year, with a net profit increase of 63.13% [6]. - The performance of gold companies remains strong, with significant year-on-year growth in revenues and profits, indicating resilience despite market fluctuations [5][6].