Group 1: Inflation Data - The core CPI in the US rose by 3.1% year-on-year in July, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, marking the largest increase since January [1] - The overall CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with falling gasoline prices helping to moderate overall inflation, but rising prices for other goods indicate the impact of tariffs [1][3] - Excluding food and energy, the prices of major commodities rose by 0.2% for the second consecutive month in July [3] Group 2: Price Increases in Specific Sectors - Shoe prices surged by 1.4% in July, the highest monthly increase in over four years, following a 0.7% rise in June [3] - Furniture and bedding prices increased by 0.9% in July, while outdoor equipment prices rose by 2.2%, the highest level in over two years [3] - Prices for toys saw a slight increase of 0.2% in July after larger increases in previous months [5] Group 3: Tariff Impact on Consumer Prices - The tariffs are expected to lead to significant price increases for clothing and textiles, with estimates suggesting a 40% rise in shoe prices and a 38% rise in clothing prices by 2025 [3] - The average tariff rate in the US is projected to reach 17.3%, the highest since 1935, with expectations that it could exceed 18% [7] - Economists predict that the overall inflation rate in the US will rise to around 3.5% by the end of the year [6] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be gradual rather than sudden, leading to a slow decline in purchasing power [8] - The overall effect of tariffs on prices may be more of a one-time adjustment rather than a sustained increase [9] - Financial markets have shown sensitivity to economic growth and inflation data, with recent weak labor market data contributing to market reactions [10]

Core Viewpoint - The July inflation data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates stable inflation, primarily due to a significant drop in energy prices, which lowers the barriers for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][3]. Inflation Data Summary - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous month and falling short of the market expectation of 2.8%. Month-on-month, it rose by 0.2%, consistent with market expectations, but the increase narrowed by 0.1 percentage points compared to June [1]. - Energy prices were a major drag on the CPI, with a year-on-year decline of 1.6% in July, a drop that expanded by 0.8 percentage points from June. Month-on-month, energy prices fell by 1.1%, contrasting with a 0.9% increase in June [1]. Employment Data Summary - Non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the market expectation of 110,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. Additionally, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down the non-farm employment figures for May and June, with May's jobs revised from 144,000 to 19,000 and June's from 147,000 to 14,000 [3]. Federal Reserve's Position - Several Federal Reserve officials have indicated a strong likelihood of interest rate cuts due to the cooling labor market. The Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve, Michelle Bowman, expressed support for three rate cuts in 2025 and urged for a rate cut to begin in September [4]. - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted that the evidence of a weakening labor market and the absence of persistent inflation from tariffs suggest that the timing for rate cuts is approaching, potentially requiring more than two cuts this year [5]. Inflation Risks and Economic Outlook - Analysts have expressed skepticism regarding the Treasury Secretary's view on tariffs, noting that service inflation remains stubborn. The core goods inflation year-on-year rose to 1.2% in July, up from negative values in March, with used car prices showing a nearly 5% increase [6]. - Concerns about the lagging effects of tariffs on prices suggest that their impact will become more apparent in the third and fourth quarters, with warnings about potential re-inflation risks [7]. The anticipated slowdown in U.S. GDP growth from 2.6% in 2024 to below 2% in 2025 reflects the broader economic risks associated with prolonged high interest rates and tariff impacts [7].

招商宏观研报称，美国7月CPI同比2.7%，小幅低于市场预期的2.8%，主因能源和食品价格降温；核心 CPI则体现出服务价格的反弹。本月，关税敏感型商品的涨价仍属局部现象、且涨幅较上月边际放缓， 海外市场对于关税通胀传导超预期的风险解除，美元指数回落，政策敏感型的美债2年前收益率小幅下 行，海外市场对美联储9月降息的预期强化，对美股三大指数形成提振。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that inflation has not worsened, leading to market speculation about a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][12]. Economic Indicators - The CPI for July met expectations, with the overall index showing stability [5]. - The housing index increased by 0.2%, contributing significantly to the CPI rise, while food prices remained flat and energy prices fell by 1.1%, with gasoline prices decreasing by 2.2% [6]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3%, up from 0.2% in June, with notable increases in healthcare, airfare, entertainment, household goods, and used cars, while lodging and communication indices declined [6]. Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, U.S. stock futures rose, with major indices opening higher, reflecting investor optimism regarding potential rate cuts [1][2]. - The probability of a 0.25% rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September increased to 87%, up from 57% the previous month, according to the CME FedWatch Tool [13]. Inflation Dynamics - Analysts suggest that the July CPI data does not indicate excessive inflation, supporting the feasibility of a rate cut in September [7]. - The impact of tariffs on inflation is seen as gradual, with some economists noting that inflation pressures appear manageable, which is a positive signal for the Federal Reserve [9]. - Deutsche Bank forecasts a divergence in short-term core inflation trends, with a three-month annualized rate expected to rise to 2.7%, while the six-month rate may drop to 2.4% due to price increases in tariff-sensitive goods [10]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to have sufficient confidence to resume rate cuts in September as long as inflation remains under control [7][12]. - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman indicated that the actual trajectory of core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation may be closer to the 2% target than reported, suggesting that the risks of sustained inflation from tariffs are diminishing [13].

Core Insights - W.W. Grainger reported Q2 2025 sales of $4.55 billion, exceeding analyst estimates of $4.53 billion, while earnings per share (EPS) were $9.97, slightly below expectations of $10.07 [1][2] - The company revised its full-year 2025 adjusted EPS and margin outlook downward, despite strong growth in its Endless Assortment segment, which saw a 19.7% year-over-year sales increase [1][14] Financial Performance - Revenue (GAAP) increased by 5.6% year-over-year, driven primarily by the Endless Assortment unit [2][5] - Gross profit margin decreased to 38.5%, and operating margin fell to 14.9%, attributed to higher costs from U.S. tariffs on imports [2][7] - Free cash flow was reported at $202 million, reflecting increased capital expenditures [2][8] Business Overview - W.W. Grainger operates as a major distributor of industrial supplies and MRO solutions, serving over 4.5 million clients globally [3] - The company employs a dual model: High-Touch Solutions for complex procurement and the Endless Assortment platform for simpler transactions [3][4] Segment Performance - The Endless Assortment segment, including Zoro and MonotaRO, experienced significant growth, with sales up 19.7% [5][10] - High-Touch Solutions North America saw slower growth at 2.5%, with profitability impacted by tariff-related inflation [6][11] Strategic Focus - The company emphasizes technology-driven enhancements and supply chain resilience, with ongoing investments in eProcurement tools [4][12] - Management highlighted the importance of managing input costs and adapting pricing strategies to maintain profitability [4][12] Guidance and Future Outlook - Full-year 2025 adjusted diluted EPS is now expected to range from $38.50 to $40.25, down from previous estimates [14] - Sales growth outlook for 2025 has been raised to 4.4% to 5.9%, indicating continued top-line momentum despite lower profitability expectations [14][15] - Capital spending is projected to increase to $0.55 billion to $0.65 billion for fiscal 2025 [16]

Core Viewpoint - The global foreign exchange market experienced significant events in July, with central banks in developed economies maintaining a cautious stance while emerging market central banks opted for rate cuts to stimulate their economies [1][6]. Group 1: Developed Economies Central Banks - In July, several developed economies' central banks, including the Reserve Bank of Australia, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Canada, decided to pause interest rate cuts amid ongoing external risks and economic uncertainties [2][3]. - The Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly paused rate cuts, with a vote of 6 in favor and 3 against, indicating internal divisions regarding further easing [2]. - The European Central Bank also paused its rate cuts, with market expectations suggesting a potential 25 basis point cut in September if trade negotiations fail [2][3]. Group 2: Emerging Economies Central Banks - In contrast, several emerging market central banks, such as Malaysia, Indonesia, Turkey, and Russia, implemented rate cuts to boost economic growth [6][7]. - Malaysia's central bank cut its overnight policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, marking its first rate adjustment in two years [6]. - Turkey's central bank significantly reduced its benchmark rate by 300 basis points to 43%, while Russia's central bank lowered its rate by 200 basis points to 18%, both actions exceeding market expectations [6][7]. Group 3: Market Implications - The divergence in monetary policy between developed and emerging economies is increasingly influencing international investors' expectations and strategies [8]. - Emerging markets are anticipated to become attractive investment destinations in the second half of the year due to global economic slowdowns and policy divergences [8]. - The future market trends will depend on the Federal Reserve's policy direction, geopolitical developments, and the economic resilience of emerging markets [8].

Group 1: Economic Policy Insights - The Politburo meeting on July 30 emphasized the good performance of major economic indicators and the need to maintain policy continuity and stability [4] - Fiscal policy in the third quarter may focus on leveraging existing policies, with a possibility of increased fiscal measures in the fourth quarter [4] - Monetary policy may prioritize reform measures and structural monetary policy tools rather than lowering policy interest rates [4] Group 2: Infrastructure Investment Opportunities - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project is expected to boost demand in various sectors, including basic chemicals, construction materials, and machinery [7] - The project is anticipated to enhance energy efficiency and improve fiscal revenue and employment in Tibet, potentially stimulating infrastructure investment and GDP growth [7] - Companies directly related to the project may experience short-term catalysts, but long-term focus should be on project progress and its economic impact [7] Group 3: Hong Kong IPO Market Analysis - The Hong Kong stock market has been active in 2025, outperforming major global markets, particularly the A-share market [9] - Hong Kong has become the largest IPO financing market globally in 2025, with significant inflows of southbound capital and many companies, including A-share firms, listing there [9] - Notable post-IPO performance has been observed, with some stocks trading significantly higher in Hong Kong compared to their A-share counterparts, igniting investor interest in IPO investments [9] Group 4: Vietnam Economic Performance - Vietnam's GDP grew by 8.0% year-on-year in Q2 2025, marking the highest growth rate for a second quarter in 2023, and 7.5% for the first half of 2025 [11] - The industrial and service sectors showed accelerated growth, with industrial GDP increasing by 8.3% and service GDP by 8.1% [11] - The Vietnamese government has raised its GDP growth target for 2025 from 8.0% to a range of 8.3% to 8.5%, reflecting the country's economic resilience [11] Group 5: U.S. Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates, aligning with market expectations, while some officials expressed concerns about inflation risks from tariffs [15] - The Fed's commitment to independence suggests that interest rate cuts may be delayed, especially if tariff pressures continue [15] - The decision-making process involves a committee, indicating that changes in leadership would not necessarily alter the monetary policy direction [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The Fed's July FOMC meeting maintained the federal funds rate as expected, with two dissenters advocating a 25 - basis - point cut. Powell's hawkish stance reduced market expectations for a September rate cut, and after the meeting, yields on 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year US bonds rose. The probabilities of rate cuts in September, October, and December dropped to 43%, 64%, and 87% respectively [3]. - The Fed will continue to be data - dependent, and its policy is in a "moderately restrictive" range. It will only shift to a more neutral stance when the risks to inflation and employment are "fully balanced," implying a greater focus on inflation currently. The Fed will make decisions based on future data and has left room to delay rate cuts [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fed Meeting Outcomes - The Fed's July FOMC meeting kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4 - 1/4 to 4 - 1/2 percent. Governors Bowman and Waller voted against, preferring a 25 - basis - point rate cut, which was in line with their previous statements [3][8]. - After the meeting, yields on 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year US bonds rose by 6, 5, and 2 basis points respectively. The probabilities of rate cuts in September, October, and December according to CME FedWatch dropped to 43%, 64%, and 87% respectively [3]. Powell's Press Conference Key Information Tariff Impact on Inflation - Powell emphasized that the transmission of tariffs to inflation is in the early stage, with monthly tariff revenue reaching $30 billion, and only a small part borne by exporters. Upstream companies and retailers plan to pass on costs to consumers [5]. - He believed that there is still a long way to assess the full impact of tariffs, suggesting that there may not be a clear judgment even in September [5]. - He stated that the Fed "looking through" temporary inflation only means not raising rates, not a reason for rate cuts, and the Fed will ensure the "one - time" nature of the impact [5]. Labor Market - The labor market is robust but has downward risks. Although new job growth has slowed significantly, the unemployment rate is low, and indicators such as the quit rate and the ratio of job openings to the unemployed are relatively stable. However, the low unemployment rate is due to both a slowdown in labor demand and a reduction in labor supply caused by immigration policies [5]. Economic Growth - Powell downplayed the recognition of "moderate" economic growth slowdown in the meeting statement, saying that the weakening of GDP and final private consumption was in line with expectations. He reiterated that policy focuses on the dual goals of "inflation and employment," suggesting that as long as the job market is stable, the growth slowdown is not enough to trigger a policy shift [6]. Uncertainty - Powell thought the level of uncertainty was the same as in June. Although the current estimate of tariff levels has converged, future uncertainty is still high, and the meeting statement removed the expression of "reduced uncertainty" [6]. Inflation - Powell expected that excluding tariffs, current inflation remains above the 2% target. The composition of inflation pressure has changed, with sticky service inflation easing and tariff increases pushing up prices of some goods [6]. Fed Independence - Powell firmly stated that the Fed will not consider government fiscal needs to maintain its independence, warning that if the Fed loses independence, the government could manipulate rate cuts to influence elections [7]. Future Policy Outlook - The Fed will continue to be data - dependent, and its current policy is in a "moderately restrictive" range. It will only shift to a more neutral stance when the risks to inflation and employment are "fully balanced," implying a greater focus on inflation currently [7]. - There will be two rounds of employment and inflation data before September, and the Fed will make decisions based on future data, leaving room to delay rate cuts [7]. Suggestions - Powell's statements seem to be somewhat inconsistent with the economic assessment in the FOMC statement. It is recommended to follow the statements of other voting members to determine if this reflects the overall tendency of the committee [7]. - Powell's avoidance of giving a September rate - cut guidance may trigger stronger pressure from the Trump administration [7].

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell did not provide guidance on a potential interest rate cut in September, stating it is too early to assert whether the Fed will lower the federal funds rate as the financial markets expect [1][4][10] - Current interest rates are deemed "moderately restrictive," with inflation slightly above the 2% target, and the labor market remains strong with low unemployment [10][14][29] - The Fed is prepared to adjust its policy stance based on upcoming economic data and the balance of risks, with significant data expected before the September meeting [11][30][46] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Activity - Inflation has significantly decreased from its mid-2022 peak but remains slightly above the 2% target, with the overall PCE price index rising by 2.5% over the past 12 months [6][14] - Service inflation has slowed significantly, while goods inflation is rising, influenced by tariffs that have begun to impact prices [6][14][19] - Economic activity has shown signs of slowing, primarily due to reduced consumer spending, with GDP growth for the first half of the year at approximately 1.2% compared to 2.5% the previous year [4][13][36] Group 3: Labor Market - The labor market remains balanced, with unemployment rates low and indicators similar to those from a year ago, despite a slowdown in job growth [5][40] - Wage growth is slowing but still outpaces inflation, indicating a stable labor market overall [5][14] - The Fed is closely monitoring the labor market for potential downtrends, as both labor demand and supply are decreasing [40][41] Group 4: Tariffs and Their Impact - The impact of tariffs on inflation is still being assessed, with the process of price transmission expected to be slower than previously anticipated [8][9][19] - There is a reasonable assumption that the inflationary effects of tariffs may be temporary, but there is also a risk that these effects could become more persistent [8][9] - The Fed is committed to using its tools to prevent temporary price increases from evolving into sustained inflation [9][20] Group 5: Future Outlook - The Fed will continue to evaluate all evidence and data to determine the appropriate policy stance, with a focus on balancing inflation and employment risks [7][30][46] - The upcoming months will provide critical data that could influence the Fed's decision on interest rates, with a focus on achieving the dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability [28][30][46] - The Fed emphasizes the importance of timing in policy adjustments to avoid unnecessary harm to the labor market while addressing inflation concerns [20][30]

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.17% at 3,615 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.77% and the ChiNext Index dropped 1.62%[17] - The Hang Seng Index declined 1.36% to 25,176 points, marking a five-day losing streak, with significant drops in major tech stocks[13] - U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.38% at 44,461 points and the S&P 500 down 0.12% at 6,362 points, while the Nasdaq rose 0.15% to 21,129 points[11] Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q2 was reported at 3.0%, significantly improving from a contraction of 0.5% in Q1[31] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with a shift in focus towards the perception of tariff-induced inflation as a one-time event, impacting future rate cut expectations[7] Commodity and Currency Movements - International oil prices rose over 1%, with WTI crude oil reaching $70.0 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical tensions and sanctions[28] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.9% to 99.82, marking a two-month high, while gold prices fell by 0.8% to $3,295.8 per ounce[28] - Copper prices plummeted by 18% after the U.S. excluded refined copper from new tariffs, leading to significant market volatility[5] Corporate Earnings Highlights - Microsoft reported Q4 earnings exceeding expectations, with net profit of $27.23 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.6%, driven by strong growth in cloud and AI services[9] - Meta's Q2 net profit rose 36% to $18.337 billion, with revenue growth of 22% to $47.52 billion, surpassing market forecasts[9] Bond Market Trends - U.S. Treasury yields rose by 4-7 basis points, with the 2-year yield at 3.94% and the 10-year yield at 4.37% following the Fed's decision to hold rates steady[6] - Asian bond markets showed mixed performance, with Chinese investment-grade bonds remaining stable amid varying yield spreads[31]