Core Insights - W.W. Grainger reported Q2 2025 sales of $4.55 billion, exceeding analyst estimates of $4.53 billion, while earnings per share (EPS) were $9.97, slightly below expectations of $10.07 [1][2] - The company revised its full-year 2025 adjusted EPS and margin outlook downward, despite strong growth in its Endless Assortment segment, which saw a 19.7% year-over-year sales increase [1][14] Financial Performance - Revenue (GAAP) increased by 5.6% year-over-year, driven primarily by the Endless Assortment unit [2][5] - Gross profit margin decreased to 38.5%, and operating margin fell to 14.9%, attributed to higher costs from U.S. tariffs on imports [2][7] - Free cash flow was reported at $202 million, reflecting increased capital expenditures [2][8] Business Overview - W.W. Grainger operates as a major distributor of industrial supplies and MRO solutions, serving over 4.5 million clients globally [3] - The company employs a dual model: High-Touch Solutions for complex procurement and the Endless Assortment platform for simpler transactions [3][4] Segment Performance - The Endless Assortment segment, including Zoro and MonotaRO, experienced significant growth, with sales up 19.7% [5][10] - High-Touch Solutions North America saw slower growth at 2.5%, with profitability impacted by tariff-related inflation [6][11] Strategic Focus - The company emphasizes technology-driven enhancements and supply chain resilience, with ongoing investments in eProcurement tools [4][12] - Management highlighted the importance of managing input costs and adapting pricing strategies to maintain profitability [4][12] Guidance and Future Outlook - Full-year 2025 adjusted diluted EPS is now expected to range from $38.50 to $40.25, down from previous estimates [14] - Sales growth outlook for 2025 has been raised to 4.4% to 5.9%, indicating continued top-line momentum despite lower profitability expectations [14][15] - Capital spending is projected to increase to $0.55 billion to $0.65 billion for fiscal 2025 [16]

Core Viewpoint - The global foreign exchange market experienced significant events in July, with central banks in developed economies maintaining a cautious stance while emerging market central banks opted for rate cuts to stimulate their economies [1][6]. Group 1: Developed Economies Central Banks - In July, several developed economies' central banks, including the Reserve Bank of Australia, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Canada, decided to pause interest rate cuts amid ongoing external risks and economic uncertainties [2][3]. - The Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly paused rate cuts, with a vote of 6 in favor and 3 against, indicating internal divisions regarding further easing [2]. - The European Central Bank also paused its rate cuts, with market expectations suggesting a potential 25 basis point cut in September if trade negotiations fail [2][3]. Group 2: Emerging Economies Central Banks - In contrast, several emerging market central banks, such as Malaysia, Indonesia, Turkey, and Russia, implemented rate cuts to boost economic growth [6][7]. - Malaysia's central bank cut its overnight policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, marking its first rate adjustment in two years [6]. - Turkey's central bank significantly reduced its benchmark rate by 300 basis points to 43%, while Russia's central bank lowered its rate by 200 basis points to 18%, both actions exceeding market expectations [6][7]. Group 3: Market Implications - The divergence in monetary policy between developed and emerging economies is increasingly influencing international investors' expectations and strategies [8]. - Emerging markets are anticipated to become attractive investment destinations in the second half of the year due to global economic slowdowns and policy divergences [8]. - The future market trends will depend on the Federal Reserve's policy direction, geopolitical developments, and the economic resilience of emerging markets [8].

Group 1: Economic Policy Insights - The Politburo meeting on July 30 emphasized the good performance of major economic indicators and the need to maintain policy continuity and stability [4] - Fiscal policy in the third quarter may focus on leveraging existing policies, with a possibility of increased fiscal measures in the fourth quarter [4] - Monetary policy may prioritize reform measures and structural monetary policy tools rather than lowering policy interest rates [4] Group 2: Infrastructure Investment Opportunities - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project is expected to boost demand in various sectors, including basic chemicals, construction materials, and machinery [7] - The project is anticipated to enhance energy efficiency and improve fiscal revenue and employment in Tibet, potentially stimulating infrastructure investment and GDP growth [7] - Companies directly related to the project may experience short-term catalysts, but long-term focus should be on project progress and its economic impact [7] Group 3: Hong Kong IPO Market Analysis - The Hong Kong stock market has been active in 2025, outperforming major global markets, particularly the A-share market [9] - Hong Kong has become the largest IPO financing market globally in 2025, with significant inflows of southbound capital and many companies, including A-share firms, listing there [9] - Notable post-IPO performance has been observed, with some stocks trading significantly higher in Hong Kong compared to their A-share counterparts, igniting investor interest in IPO investments [9] Group 4: Vietnam Economic Performance - Vietnam's GDP grew by 8.0% year-on-year in Q2 2025, marking the highest growth rate for a second quarter in 2023, and 7.5% for the first half of 2025 [11] - The industrial and service sectors showed accelerated growth, with industrial GDP increasing by 8.3% and service GDP by 8.1% [11] - The Vietnamese government has raised its GDP growth target for 2025 from 8.0% to a range of 8.3% to 8.5%, reflecting the country's economic resilience [11] Group 5: U.S. Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates, aligning with market expectations, while some officials expressed concerns about inflation risks from tariffs [15] - The Fed's commitment to independence suggests that interest rate cuts may be delayed, especially if tariff pressures continue [15] - The decision-making process involves a committee, indicating that changes in leadership would not necessarily alter the monetary policy direction [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The Fed's July FOMC meeting maintained the federal funds rate as expected, with two dissenters advocating a 25 - basis - point cut. Powell's hawkish stance reduced market expectations for a September rate cut, and after the meeting, yields on 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year US bonds rose. The probabilities of rate cuts in September, October, and December dropped to 43%, 64%, and 87% respectively [3]. - The Fed will continue to be data - dependent, and its policy is in a "moderately restrictive" range. It will only shift to a more neutral stance when the risks to inflation and employment are "fully balanced," implying a greater focus on inflation currently. The Fed will make decisions based on future data and has left room to delay rate cuts [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fed Meeting Outcomes - The Fed's July FOMC meeting kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4 - 1/4 to 4 - 1/2 percent. Governors Bowman and Waller voted against, preferring a 25 - basis - point rate cut, which was in line with their previous statements [3][8]. - After the meeting, yields on 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year US bonds rose by 6, 5, and 2 basis points respectively. The probabilities of rate cuts in September, October, and December according to CME FedWatch dropped to 43%, 64%, and 87% respectively [3]. Powell's Press Conference Key Information Tariff Impact on Inflation - Powell emphasized that the transmission of tariffs to inflation is in the early stage, with monthly tariff revenue reaching $30 billion, and only a small part borne by exporters. Upstream companies and retailers plan to pass on costs to consumers [5]. - He believed that there is still a long way to assess the full impact of tariffs, suggesting that there may not be a clear judgment even in September [5]. - He stated that the Fed "looking through" temporary inflation only means not raising rates, not a reason for rate cuts, and the Fed will ensure the "one - time" nature of the impact [5]. Labor Market - The labor market is robust but has downward risks. Although new job growth has slowed significantly, the unemployment rate is low, and indicators such as the quit rate and the ratio of job openings to the unemployed are relatively stable. However, the low unemployment rate is due to both a slowdown in labor demand and a reduction in labor supply caused by immigration policies [5]. Economic Growth - Powell downplayed the recognition of "moderate" economic growth slowdown in the meeting statement, saying that the weakening of GDP and final private consumption was in line with expectations. He reiterated that policy focuses on the dual goals of "inflation and employment," suggesting that as long as the job market is stable, the growth slowdown is not enough to trigger a policy shift [6]. Uncertainty - Powell thought the level of uncertainty was the same as in June. Although the current estimate of tariff levels has converged, future uncertainty is still high, and the meeting statement removed the expression of "reduced uncertainty" [6]. Inflation - Powell expected that excluding tariffs, current inflation remains above the 2% target. The composition of inflation pressure has changed, with sticky service inflation easing and tariff increases pushing up prices of some goods [6]. Fed Independence - Powell firmly stated that the Fed will not consider government fiscal needs to maintain its independence, warning that if the Fed loses independence, the government could manipulate rate cuts to influence elections [7]. Future Policy Outlook - The Fed will continue to be data - dependent, and its current policy is in a "moderately restrictive" range. It will only shift to a more neutral stance when the risks to inflation and employment are "fully balanced," implying a greater focus on inflation currently [7]. - There will be two rounds of employment and inflation data before September, and the Fed will make decisions based on future data, leaving room to delay rate cuts [7]. Suggestions - Powell's statements seem to be somewhat inconsistent with the economic assessment in the FOMC statement. It is recommended to follow the statements of other voting members to determine if this reflects the overall tendency of the committee [7]. - Powell's avoidance of giving a September rate - cut guidance may trigger stronger pressure from the Trump administration [7].

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell did not provide guidance on a potential interest rate cut in September, stating it is too early to assert whether the Fed will lower the federal funds rate as the financial markets expect [1][4][10] - Current interest rates are deemed "moderately restrictive," with inflation slightly above the 2% target, and the labor market remains strong with low unemployment [10][14][29] - The Fed is prepared to adjust its policy stance based on upcoming economic data and the balance of risks, with significant data expected before the September meeting [11][30][46] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Activity - Inflation has significantly decreased from its mid-2022 peak but remains slightly above the 2% target, with the overall PCE price index rising by 2.5% over the past 12 months [6][14] - Service inflation has slowed significantly, while goods inflation is rising, influenced by tariffs that have begun to impact prices [6][14][19] - Economic activity has shown signs of slowing, primarily due to reduced consumer spending, with GDP growth for the first half of the year at approximately 1.2% compared to 2.5% the previous year [4][13][36] Group 3: Labor Market - The labor market remains balanced, with unemployment rates low and indicators similar to those from a year ago, despite a slowdown in job growth [5][40] - Wage growth is slowing but still outpaces inflation, indicating a stable labor market overall [5][14] - The Fed is closely monitoring the labor market for potential downtrends, as both labor demand and supply are decreasing [40][41] Group 4: Tariffs and Their Impact - The impact of tariffs on inflation is still being assessed, with the process of price transmission expected to be slower than previously anticipated [8][9][19] - There is a reasonable assumption that the inflationary effects of tariffs may be temporary, but there is also a risk that these effects could become more persistent [8][9] - The Fed is committed to using its tools to prevent temporary price increases from evolving into sustained inflation [9][20] Group 5: Future Outlook - The Fed will continue to evaluate all evidence and data to determine the appropriate policy stance, with a focus on balancing inflation and employment risks [7][30][46] - The upcoming months will provide critical data that could influence the Fed's decision on interest rates, with a focus on achieving the dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability [28][30][46] - The Fed emphasizes the importance of timing in policy adjustments to avoid unnecessary harm to the labor market while addressing inflation concerns [20][30]

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.17% at 3,615 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.77% and the ChiNext Index dropped 1.62%[17] - The Hang Seng Index declined 1.36% to 25,176 points, marking a five-day losing streak, with significant drops in major tech stocks[13] - U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.38% at 44,461 points and the S&P 500 down 0.12% at 6,362 points, while the Nasdaq rose 0.15% to 21,129 points[11] Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q2 was reported at 3.0%, significantly improving from a contraction of 0.5% in Q1[31] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with a shift in focus towards the perception of tariff-induced inflation as a one-time event, impacting future rate cut expectations[7] Commodity and Currency Movements - International oil prices rose over 1%, with WTI crude oil reaching $70.0 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical tensions and sanctions[28] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.9% to 99.82, marking a two-month high, while gold prices fell by 0.8% to $3,295.8 per ounce[28] - Copper prices plummeted by 18% after the U.S. excluded refined copper from new tariffs, leading to significant market volatility[5] Corporate Earnings Highlights - Microsoft reported Q4 earnings exceeding expectations, with net profit of $27.23 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.6%, driven by strong growth in cloud and AI services[9] - Meta's Q2 net profit rose 36% to $18.337 billion, with revenue growth of 22% to $47.52 billion, surpassing market forecasts[9] Bond Market Trends - U.S. Treasury yields rose by 4-7 basis points, with the 2-year yield at 3.94% and the 10-year yield at 4.37% following the Fed's decision to hold rates steady[6] - Asian bond markets showed mixed performance, with Chinese investment-grade bonds remaining stable amid varying yield spreads[31]

中信证券认为，预计美联储将在9月议息会议上再度降息；中金公司表示，美联储9月或难以降息。 美联储7月议息会议维持政策利率不变，为连续第五次会议按兵不动。美联储发表声明称，两位美联储 理事投票反对继续维持利率不变，他们主张将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点。鲍威尔表示，尚未 就9月利率做出任何决定。通胀隐忧风险下，美联储最快何时能降息？以下为部分机构点评汇总： ①中信证券：预计美联储将在9月议息会议上再度降息 中信证券认为，美联储2025年7月议息会议维持政策利率不变，符合市场预期。鲍威尔发言未透露出太 多9月利率调整的前景。本次记者会最值得关注的是美联储对关税通胀的判断再次发生变化，"关税通胀 是一次性的"是鲍威尔当前认为的合理的基准情形。在"关税通胀是一次性的"假设叠加美国经济增长弱 于去年的情况下，"适度限制性的"利率政策应当减少限制性。维持此前观点，预计美联储将在9月的议 息会议上再度降息。 ②华泰证券：美联储9月能否降息主要取决于7-8月经济数据 华泰证券认为，基本面方面，鲍威尔强调就业市场较为稳健（solid），但承认存在下行风险。利率指引 方面，鲍威尔未对9月降息给出明确指引，强调降息决策取决于 ...

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target rate at 4.25%-4.50% and kept the balance sheet reduction pace unchanged at $50 billion per month for U.S. Treasuries and $35 billion per month for MBS[5] - Powell expressed concerns about stagflation risks, indicating that as long as the inflation gap exceeds the employment gap, the Fed will find it difficult to lower interest rates[7] Inflation and Tariffs - As of May, the actual tariff rate for the U.S. was approximately 9.6%, with potential increases to 15%-16% after new tariffs take effect on August 1, and possibly up to 18%-19% when considering specific goods[2] - The effective tariff rate could pose an inflation risk of 30-60 basis points, with the impact on inflation data expected to manifest in September and further affect October-November figures[2] Market Outlook - Short-term volatility in U.S. stocks is anticipated, but the medium-term outlook remains bullish due to trade agreements and supportive government policies[3] - The market currently prices a 45.2% probability of a rate cut in September, indicating that the risk-free rate is no longer a positive factor[8] Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy grew by 1.2% in the first half of the year, down from 2.5% the previous year, with consumer spending slowing and real estate remaining weak[4] - Labor market conditions are showing synchronized declines in demand and supply, with a focus on the unemployment rate as a key indicator[6]

中信证券：预计美联储将在9月议息会议上再度降息 金十数据7月31日讯，中信证券研报表示，美联储2025年7月议息会议维持政策利率不变，符合市场预 期。鲍威尔发言未透露出太多9月利率调整的前景。本次记者会最值得关注的是美联储对关税通胀的判 断再次发生变化，"关税通胀是一次性的"是鲍威尔当前认为的合理的基准情形。在"关税通胀是一次性 的"假设叠加美国经济增长弱于去年的情况下，"适度限制性的"利率政策应当减少限制性。维持此前观 点，预计美联储将在9月的议息会议上再度降息。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming data over the next two months will be crucial for economic outlook, particularly regarding inflation and labor market trends, which may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [1] Group 1 - Ashish Shah from Goldman Sachs Asset Management suggests that if inflation caused by tariffs is milder than expected, or if there are signs of a weakening labor market, the Federal Reserve may resume its easing cycle in the fall [1]