Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★, suggesting "Buy on Dips" [1] - Silver: ★★, recommending "Buy on Rebounds" [1] - Copper: ★★★, indicating "Hold Long Positions" [1] - Zinc: ★, "Cautiously Bullish" [1] - Lead: ★, "Rebound Under Pressure" [1] - Tin: ★★, "Rebound Under Pressure" [1] - Aluminum: ★, "Rebound Under Pressure" [1] - Nickel: ★★, "Rebound Under Pressure" [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★, "Cautiously Bullish" [1] - Polysilicon: ★★, "Cautiously Bullish" [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, "Bullish" [1] Core Views - Gold and silver prices are affected by factors such as US - Russia summit, US policies, and central bank gold purchases. Long - term strategic allocation of gold is recommended, and silver has a long - term upward trend [1][2][3][4] - Copper prices are boosted by overseas copper concentrate disruptions, a weak US dollar, and better - than - expected domestic exports. Short - term long positions should be held, and long - term optimism is maintained [1][7][8] - Zinc shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. Short - term cautious bullishness is advised, and long - term opportunities to short at high prices should be grasped [1][10][11] - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to the off - season effect and weak downstream demand. Short - term shorting on rebounds is recommended [1][14][15] - Nickel prices face pressure on rebounds due to increasing supply and high inventory. Shorting on rebounds is suggested [1][18][19] - Lithium carbonate prices are supported by short - term fundamentals, funds, and sentiment. Long positions should be held [1][22][23] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold prices are at a high level due to factors such as the upcoming Putin - Trump meeting and continuous central bank gold purchases [2] - **Basic Logic**: The US gold tariff issue, high global tariffs, and the upcoming US - Russia summit affect gold prices. In the long - term, the logic of a gold bull market remains unchanged [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, there is clear support for gold at around 770, and silver is in a trading range of 9100 - 9350. Long - term long positions are recommended [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated strongly, testing the pressure level of 79,000 [7] - **Industrial Logic**: There have been continuous disruptions in copper concentrates globally, and domestic copper production has increased. The spot market is tight in the short - term, but downstream demand is weak due to the off - season and high prices [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long positions should be held, and long - term optimism is maintained. Shanghai copper is expected to be in the range of [78000, 80500], and London copper in the range of [9650, 9950] USD/ton [8] Zinc - **Market Review**: London zinc oscillated strongly, while Shanghai zinc traded in a narrow range [10] - **Industrial Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant in 2025, and domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase. Demand from downstream industries shows mixed performance [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term cautious bullishness is advised, and long - term opportunities to short at high prices should be grasped. Shanghai zinc is expected to be in the range of [22400, 23000], and London zinc in the range of [2780, 2880] USD/ton [11] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina prices declined again [13] - **Industrial Logic**: The cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased in July, and inventory increased. Downstream demand is weak. Overseas bauxite imports are high, and alumina supply is expected to be loose [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term shorting on rebounds is recommended, and attention should be paid to the inventory build - up during the off - season. The main operating range for Shanghai aluminum is [20000, 20900] [15] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices faced pressure on rebounds, and stainless steel prices rebounded and then declined [17] - **Industrial Logic**: Nickel ore prices in the Philippines are weak, and domestic refined nickel production increased. Stainless steel inventory pressure re - emerged during the off - season [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Shorting on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel is recommended, and attention should be paid to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [119000, 122000] [19] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 increased in price with increasing positions, rising by more than 5% [21] - **Industrial Logic**: Terminal demand is about to enter the peak season, and there may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch. Production increased, and inventory increased slightly [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long positions should be held in the range of [75000, 81000] [23]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term gold and silver markets may experience strong oscillations. It's not advisable to chase short - term long positions in gold currently. Long - term strategic allocation of gold is recommended in the range of [770 - 796]. Silver has a positive long - term upward trend with a recommended range of [9100 - 9360] [2][97][99] - Multiple factors such as weak US data, high interest - rate cut expectations, geopolitical and trade frictions, and industrial demand structure support the rise of gold and silver prices [97] - In the long - term, central bank gold purchases, weakening US dollar credit, and inflation risks support the gold market [98] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Domestic industrial products follow the "governance of low prices" logic - Domestic industrial products were active this week. The black variety sector rose significantly with the Wenhua Black Chain Commodity Index up over 4%. The new energy index rose 4.29%, and the precious metal index rose 2.91% [12][15] 2. US data dropped significantly, and interest - rate cut expectations are strong - US economic data showed weakness. Unemployment data worsened, and inflation expectations were affected by tariffs. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September reached 100% probability, with an expected 2 - 3 rate cuts throughout the year [11][27][28] 3. China's import and export data are resilient, and attention is paid to the stabilization of the real estate market - From January to July, China's exports and imports showed positive trends. The export growth rate to non - US countries was strong, offsetting the decline in exports to the US. The real estate market in 30 large - and medium - sized cities had a significant decline in transactions, while the land transactions in 100 large - scale cities increased month - on - month [61][63][67] 4. Supported by multiple factors, gold and silver rose significantly this week - Affected by factors such as interest - rate cut expectations, tariff changes, and central bank gold purchases, gold and silver prices rose. The net gold purchase volume of global central banks decreased in the second quarter of 2025, but 95% of central banks are expected to continue to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months. China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for 9 consecutive months. The supply - demand gap of silver in 2025 is expected to narrow [81][92][93]

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets have eased concerns about a global synchronized recession, but the risk of increased tariffs under Trump's administration remains a significant threat to economic stability [1][4][6]. Group 1: Economic Growth Projections - Morgan Stanley revised its global growth forecast for Q4 2023 to 2.6%, up from 2.2% previously, indicating a slight improvement in economic outlook [3]. - The growth expectations for the US and Eurozone have been adjusted from 0.6% to 1.0%, reflecting a less severe impact from tariffs than previously anticipated [4]. - The Federal Reserve Bank of New York predicts that the US economy will slow to a growth rate of 1% by 2025, down from 1.2% in the first half of 2023 [6]. Group 2: Tariff Impacts - The EU's GDP is expected to be adjusted down by approximately 0.5% due to tariffs, with Germany facing an even greater impact of over 0.6% [7]. - Japan's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been lowered from 1.1% to 0.6%, influenced by the recent tariff agreements that reduced auto tariffs from 27.5% to 15% [8]. - China's economy is projected to grow at 4.8% in 2025, a decrease from 5.0% in 2024, largely due to ongoing high tariffs and potential "roundabout exports" facing increased scrutiny [9]. Group 3: Tariff Revenue and Economic Burden - The proportion of tariff revenue to US GDP reached 0.9% in Q2 2023, significantly higher than the historical range of 0.2% to 0.4% since the 1960s [11]. - While increased tariff revenue benefits the US government financially, the burden is likely to be passed on to US businesses and consumers, as well as foreign exporters [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent classification of gold bars by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) as taxable items could disrupt the global gold market and significantly impact Switzerland, the largest refining center for gold [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Implications - The U.S. currently imposes a 39% tariff on Swiss goods, with gold being a major export from Switzerland to the U.S. [2]. - Switzerland exported $61.5 billion worth of gold to the U.S. in the last six months of the previous year, which could result in approximately $24 billion in tariffs based on current rates [3]. - The price of gold has risen by 27% since the end of last year, reaching a historical high of $3,500 per ounce, driven by inflation concerns, tariff risks, and the weakening of the dollar [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The classification of gold bars as taxable items may lead to a significant decline in gold trade between Switzerland and the U.S., as indicated by Christoph Wild, president of the Swiss Precious Metals Manufacturers and Traders Association [4]. - Due to the uncertainty surrounding tariffs, several Swiss gold refiners have temporarily reduced or halted exports to the U.S. [5]. Group 3: Customs Code Importance - The one-kilogram gold bar is the most commonly traded item on the New York futures market and constitutes a substantial portion of Switzerland's gold exports to the U.S. [4]. - Earlier this year, traders rushed to import gold into the U.S. before the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, leading to record-high gold inventories in New York and a temporary shortage in London [4]. - The new CBP document challenges the previous understanding that certain gold products could be exempt from tariffs, highlighting the complexities of customs code classifications [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the nomination of a temporary Fed governor by the US President has boosted market expectations of interest - rate cuts, weakening the US dollar index. However, the 10 - year US Treasury auction was unexpectedly weak, leading to higher Treasury yields. The implementation of the US "reciprocal tariff" has triggered risk - aversion sentiment, cooling global risk appetite. Domestically, China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in economic growth. Trade deficit has decreased, and net exports' contribution to the economy has weakened. Policy support for child - rearing may boost consumption, and the extension of the China - US tariff truce by 90 days has reduced short - term tariff uncertainties. The expectation of a Fed rate cut has opened up space for domestic monetary policy and led to RMB appreciation, increasing domestic risk appetite [3][4]. - Different asset classes have different outlooks: stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at high levels in the short term; bonds are expected to oscillate and correct at high levels; different commodity sectors have varying trends, with some being more volatile and others more stable [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The US dollar index is weakening, US Treasury yields are rising, and risk - aversion sentiment is increasing due to tariff policies. Domestically: Economic growth is slowing, trade deficit is decreasing, and policies are supporting consumption. The extension of the tariff truce and Fed rate - cut expectations are affecting domestic risk appetite [3]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as rare earths, precious metals, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market is rising. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and investors should focus on China - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [4]. Precious Metals - On Thursday, precious metals rose slightly. Trade tensions and weak US economic data, such as poor non - farm payrolls and rising initial jobless claims, have increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September to over 90%. The inflation rebound has made the stagflation feature of the US economy more obvious. Precious metals are expected to remain in a slightly strong oscillating pattern in the short term [5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Thursday, the domestic steel spot market declined slightly, and demand continued to weaken. Steel inventory increased, and apparent consumption decreased. Supply was high due to high steel mill profits. Steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [7]. - **Iron Ore**: On Thursday, iron ore prices weakened. Iron - water production is expected to decline further, and if northern region production restrictions are implemented, ore demand will weaken. Supply has some fluctuations, and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. Glass - On Thursday, the glass futures contract oscillated weakly. Supply pressure is high, but there are expectations of production cuts due to anti - involution policies. Demand from the real - estate industry is weak, and glass prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [8][9]. Ferrous Alloys - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Thursday, prices continued to weaken. Demand from the steel industry is okay. Production in some regions is expected to increase, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [8]. - **Soda Ash**: On Thursday, the soda - ash futures contract oscillated weakly. Supply is in an oversupply situation, demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: German industrial output declined, and new US tariffs have increased global economic pressure. Copper inventory is at a high level, and terminal demand may weaken [10]. - **Aluminum**: Boosted by the expectation of a Fed rate cut, LME aluminum previously led the rise but has now slowed. Fundamentally, domestic and LME inventories are increasing, and short - term upward space is limited [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Waste - aluminum supply is tight, production costs are rising, and it is in the demand off - season. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term but with limited upward space [11]. - **Tin**: Supply - side开工率 has increased significantly, but demand is weak, especially in the photovoltaic industry. Inventories are increasing, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Thursday, the lithium - carbonate futures contract rose significantly. Market concerns about production suspension have increased price volatility, and cautious observation is recommended [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Thursday, the industrial - silicon futures contract rose. The increase in coking - coal prices may drive the price, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [14]. - **Polysilicon**: On Thursday, the polysilicon futures contract declined. The photovoltaic industry has anti - involution expectations, and the spot price provides support. With increasing warehouse receipts, prices are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is waiting for a potential meeting between the US and Russian presidents, and oil prices are falling. Oil prices will continue to oscillate widely, and an oversupply situation may occur at the end of the year [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: It is testing the key resistance level. Port inventory is slightly decreasing, but supply pressure will increase in the future, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [16]. - **Asphalt**: Crude - oil price decline has weakened cost support. Inventory is neutral, and demand is weak. It will continue to oscillate weakly [16]. - **PX**: Due to plant shutdowns, demand has decreased slightly. The supply - demand pattern is still tight, and it will oscillate in the short term, waiting for changes in PTA plants and terminal orders [16]. - **PTA**: Processing fees are low, leading to new plant shutdowns. Spot trading is weak, and downstream demand is slowly recovering. The upside space is limited [16]. - **Short - fiber**: Affected by the decline in crude - oil prices and sector resonance, short - fiber prices are falling. Inventory is accumulating, and it may continue to be weak in the medium term [17]. - **Methanol**: The anti - involution sentiment has cooled, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to supply - demand pressure [17]. - **PP**: The anti - involution sentiment has cooled, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to strong supply and weak demand [17]. - **LLDPE**: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [18]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose. US soybean export sales in the week ending July 31 were higher than expected [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Domestic soybean - meal spot prices are expected to oscillate around 2900 yuan/ton. Rapeseed - meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: Soybean - oil spot trading has improved, and there are opportunities for long - soybean - oil and short - palm - oil arbitrage. Rapeseed - oil fundamentals are stable [20][21]. - **Fats and Oils**: CBOT soybean - oil futures fell, and BMD palm - oil futures rose. Malaysia's palm - oil production and inventory increased in July, and exports were weak. The domestic short - term soybean - palm oil spread may rebound [21]. - **Corn**: Corn futures are falling, and spot prices are weak. Supply is expected to be sufficient in August, and high basis provides some support [21]. - **Pigs**: Farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices, and slaughterhouse orders are expected to increase after the Beginning of Autumn. Pig prices may stabilize [22].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 美联储表态鸽派，关税谈判接近尾声，短期盘面调整。中长期来看，多国货币政策 | | | 回调做多 | 宽松预期，央行买黄金，黄金与其他资产相关性较低，长期黄金继续战略配置。 | | ★★ | | 【770-794】 | | 白银 | | 美国降息预期和中美欧等国宽松财政刺激等支撑作用明显，白银基本面变化不大， | | | 反弹做多 | 工业需求坚挺，供给端增量有限，白银长期向上趋势不变。不过短期白银品种弹性 | | ★★ | | 较大，短期试多长期做多。【9000-9300】 | | | | 海内外宏观政策进入窗口期，铜精矿干扰和美元疲软帮助铜止跌反弹，但是需求淡 | | 铜 | 回调试多 | 季叠加海内外库存累库限制铜反弹空间，短期建议等待铜充分回调后再试多，中长 | | ★★ | | 期依旧看好铜，沪铜关注区间【77500，79500】 | | 锌 | 海外 | LME 锌库存连续去化超预期，国内需求疲软继续累库。锌外强内弱，沪锌跟随 | | | 反弹沽空 | 伦锌止跌反弹，建议锌前期空单止盈兑现后 ...

Group 1 - European companies reported strong earnings, boosting market confidence and leading to a collective rise in European stocks [1][2] - ABN Amro announced a new stock buyback plan after exceeding profit expectations, while Siemens Energy expects to reach the upper limit of its annual performance [2] - Fresenius SE raised its full-year sales forecast, and Bayer's sales exceeded analyst expectations [2] Group 2 - Despite some positive reports, Novo Nordisk's revenue growth fell short of expectations, although its weight-loss drug Wegovy performed better than anticipated [2] - Commodity giant Glencore's earnings did not meet expectations, and it canceled plans to move its primary listing from London to New York [2] - European stock indices showed positive movement, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index opening up by 0.5% and the DAX index also rising by 0.5% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "A" for the textile and apparel industry [1] Core Insights - Adidas reported a 14% year-on-year revenue growth in its brand under constant currency for the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching €12.105 billion, a 7% increase compared to the previous year [4][19] - The report highlights that all regional markets for Adidas achieved double-digit growth under constant currency [20] - The overall textile and apparel sector has shown a decline of 2.14% in the SW textile and apparel index, underperforming the broader market [22] Summary by Sections Company Performance - Adidas' FY2025H1 revenue increased by 7% to €12.105 billion, with a net profit growth of 121% to €798 million [4][19] - The company's gross margin improved by 0.9 percentage points to 51.9%, driven by lower product and transportation costs [5][19] - The report anticipates that for FY2025, Adidas will maintain its guidance of high single-digit revenue growth under constant currency, with operating profit expected to be between €1.7 billion and €1.8 billion [20] Market Dynamics - The textile and apparel sector's retail sales growth for the first half of 2025 was 3.1%, with sports and leisure goods showing a robust growth of 22.2% [11] - The report notes that the SW textile and apparel sector has lagged behind the broader market, with various sub-sectors experiencing declines [22] Regional Performance - In the European market, Adidas' revenue grew by 9% to €3.983 billion, while in North America, it increased by 6% to €2.523 billion [21] - The Greater China market saw an 8% revenue increase to €1.827 billion, and emerging markets experienced an 18% growth to €1.632 billion [21] Valuation Metrics - As of August 1, the PE-TTM for SW textile manufacturing was 20.94, while for SW apparel and home textiles, it was 27.69, indicating high valuation levels compared to historical averages [30]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing high-level fluctuations due to the interplay between policy expectations and economic data, with a focus on U.S. economic performance and monetary policy changes [2][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Data and Monetary Policy - Analysts suggest that the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs is diminishing, leading to a renewed focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations [3][4]. - Weak U.S. employment data and downward revisions of historical data indicate a cooling labor market, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts in upcoming meetings [3][5]. - If U.S. economic indicators, such as retail sales and CPI, continue to show weakness, it could further support expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy [4][5]. Group 2: Precious Metals Market Dynamics - The precious metals market is expected to maintain a high-level trading range, with inflation expectations potentially supporting prices if CPI data confirms rising costs [2][4]. - Gold prices are testing key resistance levels, with analysts noting that a breakthrough above $3,370 per ounce could lead to further gains towards $3,440-$3,450 [4]. - Silver prices are anticipated to follow gold's trend, driven by macroeconomic easing expectations rather than supply-demand fundamentals [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The oil market in the fourth quarter faces greater supply - demand easing pressure due to OPEC+ production increase, but is supported by sanctions risks and peak - season demand. The price of precious metals maintains a buy - on - dips strategy in the shock trend. For most industrial metals, there are short - term supply and demand pressures, and the prices are expected to be volatile. The shipping index is expected to decline, and most agricultural products' prices are affected by factors such as weather and trade policies, showing a volatile pattern [1][2] Summary by Category Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, which brings supply - demand pressure to the oil market in the fourth quarter. After the price correction this week, there is still upward risk due to secondary sanctions on Russian oil. Also, pay attention to the extension of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs by August 12 [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Crude oil leads the decline of oil - related futures. The fundamentals of the high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are weak, and the FU - LU crack spread is expected to remain weak [20] - **Asphalt**: Venezuelan crude oil inflows to China increased by 3.8% in July. The August production plan is lower than that in July, but some refineries may over - produce. Demand in South China recovers slowly, and the overall commercial inventory increases slightly. The price follows the direction of crude oil with limited fluctuations [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The Middle East CP is significantly reduced, but the spot discount narrows. The supply is relatively loose, and the domestic demand has bottom - line support. The spot price has limited room to decline further [22] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals maintain a strong shock. The market is worried about the authenticity of US data and economic prospects, and the interest - rate market expects the Fed to restart rate cuts in September. Adopt a buy - on - dips strategy [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The supply loss rate in the second half of the year is expected to increase. The social inventory increased to 135,900 tons on Monday. Hold short positions [3] - **Aluminum**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots continues to increase, and the demand feedback is negative. The price may be under pressure to fluctuate in the short term, and pay attention to the support around 20,200 yuan. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton in August [4][8] - **Zinc**: The zinc market returns to the fundamental logic of increasing supply and weak demand. The supply of zinc ingots is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. Pay attention to policy changes during the "Golden September and Silver October". Wait for opportunities to short at high positions [7] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The nickel market returns to fundamentals. The upstream price support weakens, and the overall inventory is still high. Actively intervene in short positions as the rebound is in the middle - to - late stage [9] - **Tin**: The tin price declined overnight. Pay attention to the support of the MA60 moving average. Hold short positions at high levels [10] - **Manganese Silicon**: The iron - water output remains high, the production increase rate of silicon - manganese is lower than expected, and the manganese ore price increases slightly. The price bottom gradually rises, but the upside is limited [17] - **Silicon Iron**: The iron - water output is slightly down, the demand is fair, the supply is slightly up, and the inventory is slightly increased. The price is under increasing pressure [18] - **Rare Metals** - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price fluctuates. The downstream replenishes goods as the price drops. The production of smelters decreases week - on - week. Adopt a short - term low - buying strategy [11] - **Cobalt**: The report does not mention cobalt - related content Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price continues to decline with reduced positions. The supply in major production areas increases marginally, and the demand growth in August is uncertain. The price is expected to fluctuate and decline in the short term [12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price slightly declines. The supply continues to put pressure, and the spot processing margin needs to be repaired. Pay attention to the cost and demand in the short and medium terms respectively [26] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price continues to decline due to weak supply - demand and oil - price drag. The supply increases, and the port inventory rises [27] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: The prices follow the raw materials. The short - fiber industry may be boosted in the peak season, and the bottle - chip processing margin is limited by over - capacity [28] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The US soybean may have an early - harvest expectation. The domestic oil - mill soybean - meal inventory increases. The soybean - meal market is expected to fluctuate before the tariff issue is clear [32] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US soybean may have a good harvest. The Chinese soybean oil may strengthen in the medium term. The Malaysian palm oil has weak short - term supply - demand. Adopt a low - buying strategy [33] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The focus is on Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The rapeseed - related futures prices are expected to fluctuate [34] - **Corn**: The continuous release of imported corn affects market expectations. The Dalian corn futures may continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [36] - **Cotton**: The US cotton has normal weather, and the Chinese cotton has slow inventory digestion and weak downstream demand. The 9 - 1 spread may rebound. Adopt a wait - and - see or intraday - trading strategy [39] - **Sugar**: The US sugar is under pressure, and the uncertainty of China's 25/26 sugar - production season increases. The sugar price is expected to fluctuate [40] - **Apple**: The price of early - maturing apples starts to decline. The market focuses on the new - season output estimate. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [41] Others - **Shipping**: The SCFIS European route index declines slightly. The shipping companies' cargo - collection pressure increases, and the short - term view is bearish [19] - **Building Materials** - **Glass**: The glass market is weak with inventory accumulation. The market returns to real - situation trading [29] - **Timber**: The timber demand and supply improve, and the futures price is expected to rise [42] - **Paper Pulp**: The paper - pulp price declines. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. The price may return to low - level fluctuations [43] - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The stock market rises, and the futures - index contracts all close up. The market sentiment is relatively positive in the medium term. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to low - level consumption sectors [44] - **Treasury Bond**: The treasury - bond futures fluctuate. The price spread between near - and far - month contracts widens. The yield curve is expected to steepen [45]