泰国商务部长：五月出口仍然良好。 ...

报告导读： 2025年前5月新增专项债发行16336亿元，同比增长40.7%，有望带动基建实物工 作量回稳。5月建筑业PMI保持扩张，各地工程项目施工继续加快。 前 5 月新增专项债发行加速，有望带动基建实物工作量回稳。 (1)2025 年前 5 月新增专项债发行 16336 亿 元，同比增 40.7% ，发行节奏加快。从月度分布看， 1~5 月单月分别发行 2048 、 3920 、 3635 、 2301 、 4432 亿元，分布较为平均。 (2)2025 年前 5 月发行特殊再融资专项债共 16291 亿元，发行节奏明显前 置。从月度分布看， 1~5 月单月分别发行 1719 、 7823 、 3830 、 2617 、 302 亿元，发行主要集中在一 季度。 2024 年集中在 10 、 11 、 12 月共 21826 亿元， 2023 年在 10 、 11 月共发行 4967 亿元。 (3)2025 前 5 月城投债净融资额 -2248 亿元 (2024 年同期净融资额 -1891 亿元 ) 。从月度分布看， 1~5 月单月净融 资 -693 、 541 、 -617 、 -898 、 -582 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the implications of the depreciation of the US dollar and its impact on global capital flows and economic dynamics, particularly focusing on the US economy and its relationship with non-US economies [1][2][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Dollar Depreciation Certainty**: The trend of dollar depreciation is established due to the changing global capital flow patterns and the decoupling of the US economy from the global economy. This situation is exacerbated by the US's increasing debt levels and the inability to attract capital as before [1][2][3]. 2. **US Fiscal Policy**: The US government has expanded fiscal spending, including increasing transfer payments to residents by nearly 20%, to maintain economic resilience. This has helped stabilize consumer spending despite rising inflation pressures [4][5]. 3. **Inflation and Fed's Role**: The Federal Reserve's inability to control inflation has led to a collapse in its credibility, which in turn undermines the value of the dollar. The Fed's actions, including purchasing long-term bonds, may lead to persistent inflation [4][5]. 4. **Strong US Consumer Demand**: Despite challenges, US consumer demand remains robust, and trade deficits are expected to normalize over time. The depreciation of the dollar creates a favorable export environment for China [6][7]. 5. **Global Manufacturing Cycle**: The global manufacturing sector is entering a cyclical upswing, driven by improvements in supply-side conditions. Non-US economies are expected to perform better, with China's exports likely to exceed expectations [7][8]. 6. **Impact of De-globalization**: The breakdown of globalization allows emerging markets to have more autonomy in their monetary and fiscal policies, leading to enhanced domestic demand and positive growth for non-US economies [8][9]. 7. **US Re-industrialization**: The slow pace of re-industrialization in the US necessitates continued imports of capital goods, consumer goods, and intermediate goods, which is expected to benefit Chinese exports [9][10]. 8. **Chinese Market Dynamics**: The supply-demand balance in the Chinese market is improving, with rising asset prices driven by the appreciation of the yuan and favorable external demand conditions [11][12]. 9. **Core Asset and Financial Sector Outlook**: There is a positive outlook for core assets and the financial sector in China, particularly for insurance companies, as the yuan's appreciation benefits their operations [13][14]. 10. **Export Prospects and US Economic Policy Uncertainty**: Export prospects may exceed expectations, but there is a need to monitor uncertainties in US economic policy. A stable US economy, even without significant growth, can support good export performance [15]. Other Important Insights - The records highlight the structural changes in global capital flows and the potential for non-US economies to thrive in a weaker dollar environment, suggesting a shift in investment strategies towards emerging markets and commodities [1][2][6][8]. - The discussions emphasize the importance of monitoring US economic policies and their implications for global trade dynamics, particularly for countries like China that are positioned to benefit from these changes [15].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.4%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.5%, the STAR Market 50 dropped by 1.5%, the CSI 1000 declined by 0.9%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.2%, and the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.1% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on that day were Beauty Care (+1.1%), Banking (+0.5%), Pharmaceutical and Biological (+0.3%), Transportation (+0.2%), and Media (+0.2%). The worst-performing sectors were Defense and Military (-2.0%), Computer (-1.9%), Electronics (-1.7%), Communication (-1.4%), and Non-Bank Financials (-1.1%) [3][4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1,415.3 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 7.59 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Important Insights Inflation and Economic Policy - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth was -0.1%, consistent with the previous value and better than market expectations of -0.2%. The month-on-month growth was -0.2%, influenced mainly by falling energy prices [5] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year growth recorded -3.3%, slightly below market expectations of -3.2%, with a month-on-month decline of 0.4% due to falling prices of internationally priced bulk commodities [5] Trade Dynamics - In May, China's exports to the United States decreased by 33.6%, primarily due to the high average tariff levels maintained until mid-May when tariffs were officially lowered following negotiations [6] - The market outlook for trade with the U.S. remains pessimistic, but there is potential for a rebound in exports to the U.S. [6]

Supply and Demand - Construction activity shows a significant decline in cement usage, with construction site funding availability lower than the same period in 2024[2] - Industrial production remains at a seasonal high, but some sectors are declining, such as polyester chip production which has dropped to a low level[2][24] - Building demand is weak, with rebar and construction material demand below historical levels[3][31] Prices - International commodity prices for oil, copper, and aluminum are fluctuating, while gold prices have increased[4][39] - Domestic industrial products are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the South China comprehensive index nearing its September 2024 low[4][41] Real Estate - New housing transactions remain at historical lows, with a 7% week-on-week decline in transaction area across 30 major cities, down 41% compared to 2023[5][59] - Second-hand housing transaction volumes are weakening, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showing year-on-year declines of -1%, -15%, and +6% respectively[5][61] Exports - High-frequency export data for the first week of June indicates a potential year-on-year decline of around -8%[6][67] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen a decline in funding rates, with R007 at 1.55% and DR007 at 1.53% as of June 6[5][80] - The central bank has implemented a net withdrawal of 358.6 billion yuan in recent weeks[5][82]

欧洲央行行长拉加德：调查数据显示短期前景趋于疲软。 迫切需要让欧元区更具竞争力和生产力。 更高的关税、欧元升值将使出口更加困难。 国防、基础设施支出应该会提振经济增长。 ...

欧洲央行：贸易政策不确定性将影响投资和出口。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic focus in May is expected to shift towards exports, with internal changes remaining relatively small. The anticipated export growth rate is around 3.5%, while imports are expected to decline by approximately 2% [2][3][11]. Export - Overall export growth is projected to marginally decline but remains within an acceptable range, with a forecasted year-on-year growth of 3.5% in dollar terms for May [3][11]. - High-frequency data indicates a decrease in container throughput at monitored ports, with a year-on-year decline of 6.7% as of May 25, compared to 7.3% at the end of April [4][12]. - The number of container ships from China to the U.S. has decreased significantly, with a year-on-year drop of 20.2% in May, reflecting weak direct exports to the U.S. [4][12]. - Imports from ASEAN countries have also shown a marginal decline, with a year-on-year increase of 6.3% in ship arrivals in May, down from 8.3% in April [4][12]. Domestic Demand - Retail sales are expected to grow by around 5.5% in May, with strong performance in the automotive sector but weaker pricing [5][15]. - Fixed asset investment growth is projected to decline to approximately 3.8% for January to May, influenced by insufficient project availability [5][14]. - Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a year-on-year decline of about 0.4%, while Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to decrease by around 3.5% [6][8]. Financial Data - New social financing is expected to reach 1.9 trillion yuan in May, a decrease of 100 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [6][16]. - M2 money supply is projected to grow by approximately 7.6% year-on-year, while new M1 is expected to increase by around 2.4% [6][16]. Real Estate - Real estate sales are anticipated to show a year-on-year decline of about 3.0% in May, with major cities reporting a decrease of 4.1% [15][16]. Summary - The report highlights a cautious outlook for exports and domestic demand, with specific attention to the automotive and real estate sectors. The financial landscape shows signs of slowing growth in social financing and investment, indicating potential challenges ahead for the economy [2][5][11][15][16].

行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 6 月 5 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 东莞菜油贸易商报价：东莞三菜 09+50 （6 月），一菜 09+250（6 月）。华 东市场豆油基差价格：一豆：6 月上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the mixed performance of various sectors in May, indicating a gradual recovery in certain areas while others continue to face challenges, particularly in real estate and industrial production. Group 1: Power Generation and Industrial Activity - The cumulative power generation from coal-fired power plants increased by 1.9% year-on-year as of May 22, marking the first positive reading of the year [1][7] - Industrial sector operating rates showed mixed results, with steel and coking industries underperforming compared to April, while the textile and apparel sectors improved significantly [8][9] - As of the fourth week of May, the operating rate of high furnaces increased by 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, while coking enterprises saw a 1.6 percentage point increase [8][9] Group 2: Construction and Infrastructure - The construction funding availability rate remained stable compared to the end of April, with a slight increase of 0.07 percentage points to 58.9% as of May 27 [10][11] - The cement shipment rate recorded 40.5%, reflecting a 0.2 percentage point decline year-on-year [10][11] - The oil asphalt operating rate decreased to 27.7% by May 28, down from 34.4% and 30.8% in the previous weeks [10][11] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Sales - The average daily subway ridership in ten major cities increased by 0.8% year-on-year to 61.51 million, although it showed a decline from the previous month [12] - Real estate sales in May showed a reduced decline compared to April, with a 4.1% year-on-year drop in the average daily transaction area across 30 major cities [14][15] - Retail sales of passenger cars maintained a relatively strong state, with a year-on-year increase of 16% from May 1 to 25 [15] Group 4: Appliance Sales and Export Activity - Retail sales of major home appliances remained high, with air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines showing significant year-on-year growth rates of 66.1%, 75.2%, and 85.2% respectively during the week of May 19-25 [16][17] - Container throughput showed a slight slowdown, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0% from May 5 to 25, down from 7.3% in April [18] - The number of container ships sent to the U.S. saw a year-on-year decline of 17.2% as of May 31, indicating a potential shift in export dynamics [18][19]