凯投宏观分析师Paul Ashworth写道："美联储7月会议纪要显示，除了两名希望在7月降息的理事投反对 票外，其他美联储官员普遍认同维持利率不变。就这一点而言，这对9月会议来说是一个略偏鹰派的信 号。但由于纪要的时间早于惨淡的7月就业报告，因此很难从纪要中获得太多关于未来的线索。鉴于后 续发布的数据，这份纪要显然已经过时，美联储主席鲍威尔本周在杰克逊霍尔的演讲，应该会更深入地 揭示9月降息是否已成定局。" 来源：滚动播报 ...

周四，三大指数波动不大，标普500指数连续第三个交易日创历史新高。美国最新公布的PPI数据强于预 期，促使交易商减少对美联储下月降息的押注并令美国国债走低。对货币政策变化最为敏感的两年期国 债收益率一度上涨两个基点，至3.69%，扭转了早些时候的跌势。美元兑一篮子货币亦上涨。利率互换 显示，美联储在9月会议上降息的可能性为90%，而在一天前，市场已经完全消化了美联储9月的降息。 【美股】截至收盘，道指跌11.01点，跌幅为0.02%，报44911.26点；纳指跌2.47点，跌幅为0.01%，报 21710.67点；标普500指数涨1.96点，涨幅为0.03%，报6468.54点。英特尔(INTC.US)涨7.38%，纳斯达克 中国金龙指数跌2.13%，阿里巴巴(BABA.US)跌3.64%。 【欧股】德国DAX30指数涨190.84点，涨幅0.79%，报24380.75点；英国富时100指数涨10.51点，涨幅 0.11%，报9175.74点；法国CAC40指数涨65.37点，涨幅0.84%，报7870.34点；欧洲斯托克50指数涨 47.40点，涨幅0.88%，报5435.65点；西班牙IBEX35指数涨1 ...

Market Overview - The S&P 500 index reached a new all-time high for the third consecutive trading day, while the Dow Jones and Nasdaq experienced slight declines [1] - The latest PPI data in the U.S. exceeded expectations, leading traders to reduce bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month [1] - The two-year Treasury yield rose by two basis points to 3.69%, reversing earlier declines [1] U.S. Economic Indicators - The PPI increased by 0.9% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, marking the highest inflation rate in three years, driven by a surge in service costs [6] - Initial jobless claims decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, indicating that employers are reluctant to lay off workers [7] - The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 6.58%, the lowest since October of the previous year [8] Company-Specific News - Berkshire Hathaway reduced its stake in Apple by 20 million shares while establishing new positions in UnitedHealth and Nucor [8] - Hillhouse Capital's HHLR Advisors reported a total market value of $3.105 billion, with over 90% in Chinese stocks, highlighting a strong preference for quality Chinese assets [9] - The Trump administration is negotiating a potential investment in Intel to support its domestic manufacturing efforts [10] - Apple Watch's blood oxygen tracking feature has returned to the U.S. market after a legal dispute, now allowing data to be displayed on paired iPhones [11]

花旗集团经济学家Faraz Syed分析指出，此次政策声明的整体基调可能呈现中性偏宽松的倾向。若与先 前声明相比，该行对经济预测的调整显示2026年失业率可能小幅攀升且通胀水平有所回落，则政策立场 或将更趋宽松。市场普遍关注此次利率决议的措辞变化，特别是对通胀预期和就业市场前景的评估。分 析人士认为，若联储下调通胀预期并上调失业率预测，可能暗示未来存在进一步放宽政策的可能性。当 前市场定价已基本消化本次降息预期，投资者更关注的是联储对后续政策路径的前瞻指引。 周一（8月11日）亚市早盘，澳元兑美元下跌，目前交投于0.65附近，截止北京时间11:42分，澳元/美元 报价0.6526，上涨0.02%，上一交易日澳元/美元收盘报0.6524。澳洲联储预计将于周二宣布降息25个基 点，将官方隔夜拆款利率从3.85%下调至3.6%。 澳元兑美元0.6465附近可能为澳元兑美元提供支撑，其下方是100日简单移动平均线（SMA）。若跌破 0.6420-0.6415区域（即上周五触及的一个多月低点），将为空头提供新的触发信号。随之而来的下跌可 能拖累现货价格跌破0.6400整数关口，向6月月度震荡低点0.6375-0.637 ...

上周，面对特朗普政府不断要求降息的压力，美联储再次决定维持利率不变。与此同时，特朗普也签署行政命令，对进口 自多个国家和地区的商品额外征收10%到41%不等的关税，加之美国部分经济及就业数据不佳，以上因素打压市场风险偏 好，美国三大股指上周累计下跌。其中，道指下跌2.92%，标普500指数下跌2.36%，纳指下跌2.17%。 上周国际油价上涨 原油期货方面，上周，美国总统特朗普对俄罗斯发出制裁的警告，引发市场对部分石油贸易可能受影响的担忧。与此同 时，美欧达成贸易协议也提振燃料需求预期，推高国际油价。 纽约油价上周累计上涨3.33%，布伦特油价累计上涨 1.80%。 上周国际金价累计上涨近2% 贵金属期货方面，全球贸易局势仍面临很大不确定性，叠加地缘局势骤然紧张，市场避险情绪高涨， 推动国际金价在上 周累计上涨1.92%。 美国新一轮关税措施本周生效 美国实际关税水平将升至1933年以来最高水平 本周，投资者较为关注的仍然是关税方面的消息。当地时间7日，也就是本周四，美国对部分贸易伙伴重新设定的所谓"对 等关税"税率将生效，给全球贸易局势带来了新的不确定性。惠誉评级的最新报告显示，新关税将使美国实际关税税率升 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates, marking the fifth consecutive pause in rate cuts, with Powell indicating no decision has been made regarding a potential rate cut in September [1] - The ADP report showed an increase of 104,000 jobs, contrasting with a previous decrease of 23,000, which negatively impacted gold prices [1] - The second quarter GDP growth was recorded at 3%, exceeding the previous value of 2.4% and the expected -0.5%, further pressuring gold prices [1] - Following the data release, gold prices fell from around $3,330 to a low of $3,267 after the Fed's decision [1] - Analysts suggest that the probability of a rate cut in September has dropped below 50%, although two rate cuts are still anticipated this year if strong data continues [1] - Technically, gold is in a bearish trend, with resistance at $3,310 and support at $3,260 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - The EIA reported an increase in crude oil inventories by 7.698 million barrels to 426.7 million barrels, which was higher than the previous decrease of 3.169 million barrels and the expected decrease of 1.288 million barrels, negatively affecting oil prices [2] - Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.724 million barrels to 22.84 million barrels, exceeding expectations and providing support for oil prices [2] - Trump's threat of additional tariffs on Russia if the Ukraine conflict does not end within ten days raised concerns about potential supply tightness, contributing to rising oil prices [2] - A trade agreement framework between the U.S. and South Korea, which includes a reduction in tariffs and significant investments, is expected to boost short-term oil demand [2] - Technically, oil prices have been fluctuating between $64 and $69.50, with a recent breakout above $69.50 indicating a higher probability of further increases, targeting $71.70 [2] Group 3: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index rebounded after a decline, suggesting that the recent pullback may be nearing its end, with potential for further increases [3] - The index is expected to maintain a range-bound movement in the short term, with key support at 40,500 [3] Group 4: Copper Market - Copper prices experienced a significant drop, reaching the lowest point since early April, erasing gains from the past three and a half months [4] - There are no signs of a bottoming out in the hourly chart, indicating a potential for further declines [4] - Key support for copper is noted at $4.21, with resistance at $4.47 [4]

铜是全球消费量第三大的金属，仅次于铁和铝。根据美国地质调查局的数据，美国大约有一半的铜依赖进口，其中大部分来自智利。 隔夜，美股三大指数一度跳水下跌，截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数跌0.38%，标普500指数跌0.12%，纳斯达克指数涨0.15%。 消息面上，关税迎密集进展。 隔夜，现货黄金市场遭遇了"黑色星期三"，现货黄金价格单日下跌超过1.5%，盘中最低触及3268.02美元，创下6月30日以来新低。今日欧市盘中，黄金 小幅上涨，目前在3310元附近徘徊。 降息预期大变脸！ 首先是，特朗普宣布8月1日起对进口半成品铜等产品征收50%关税。 当地时间7月30日，美国白宫表示，美国总统特朗普签署了一项公告，宣布对几类进口铜产品征收关税。 公告显示，将自8月1日起对进口半成品铜产品（例如铜管、铜线、铜棒、铜板和铜管）及铜密集型衍生产品（例如管件、电缆、连接器和电气元件）普遍 征收50%的关税。 当天，在白宫宣布这一关税后，纽约铜价下跌逾18%。 其次是，特朗普称美国将对韩国征收15%关税。 当地时间7月30日，美国总统特朗普发文称，美国已与韩国达成"全面完整"的贸易协议。根据协议，韩国将向美国提供3500亿美元，用于 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged, with a rare dissent among members, indicating a divided opinion on current monetary policy [3] - The decision to keep the overnight rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% was made with a 9-2 vote, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without changes [3] - The Fed's statement highlighted that while the unemployment rate remains low, economic growth has "slowed somewhat" in the first half of the year, which may support future rate cuts if the trend continues [3] Group 2 - Silver T+D prices experienced significant fluctuations, with a current trading price of 8978 yuan/kg, down 2.15% from the opening price of 9153 yuan/kg [1] - The highest price reached during the day was 9153 yuan/kg, while the lowest dipped to 8936 yuan/kg, indicating a bearish short-term trend [1][4] - Key resistance levels for silver T+D are noted at 9153-9235 yuan/kg, with support levels identified at 8800-8936 yuan/kg [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View - On July 30, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose and then fell during the session. The trading volume was 792,909 lots (+48,749), and the open interest was 272,753 lots (-27,867). The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium increased. The price of spodumene concentrate decreased, while the mica price remained flat. Last week, lithium carbonate production decreased. In terms of downstream demand, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, and the production scheduling of ternary materials rose. In June, the production scheduling of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate decreased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued in June, the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. The production scheduling of energy - storage batteries increased in June. In terms of inventory, the registered warehouse receipts were 12,276 (+0) tons, the social inventory was tight, smelters destocked, and downstream and others restocked. Overall, the commodity sentiment fluctuated greatly, and the exchange's position limit cooled the market. It is expected that the short - term lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely. Operationally, it is recommended to hold put options [3] Summary by Relevant Data Futures Market Data - **Prices**: The closing prices of the near - month contract, the first - continuous contract, the second - continuous contract, and the third - continuous contract of lithium carbonate futures were 70,260 yuan/ton, 70,600 yuan/ton, 70,580 yuan/ton, and 70,580 yuan/ton respectively on July 30, 2025. Compared with the previous day, the near - month contract decreased by 200 yuan/ton, the first - continuous contract decreased by 240 yuan/ton, the second - continuous contract increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the third - continuous contract increased by 20 yuan/ton [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract of lithium carbonate futures was 792,909 lots (+48,749), and the open interest was 272,753 lots (-27,867) [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory was 12,276 tons, with no change compared with the previous day [3] - **Spreads**: The spreads of near - month - first - continuous, first - continuous - second - continuous, and second - continuous - third - continuous were - 340 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively on July 30, 2025. Compared with the previous day, the near - month - first - continuous spread increased by 40 yuan/ton, the first - continuous - second - continuous spread decreased by 260 yuan/ton, and the second - continuous - third - continuous spread remained unchanged [3] - **Basis**: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was 2,350 yuan/ton on July 30, 2025, an increase of 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [3] Spot Market Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 776 US dollars/ton on July 30, 2025, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton compared with the previous day. The average prices of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%), phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 7% - 8%) were 1,140 yuan/ton, 1,775 yuan/ton, 5,675 yuan/ton, and 6,625 yuan/ton respectively, with 0, 0, 75, and 125 yuan/ton changes compared with the previous day [3] - **Lithium Compound Prices**: The average prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic), industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%/domestic, coarse - grained), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%/domestic, micronized), and other lithium compounds had different changes on July 30, 2025, compared with the previous day. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 200 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 150 yuan/ton [3] - **Price Spreads**: The spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and CIF China - Japan - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide were - 7,480 yuan/ton, 2,100 yuan/ton, and - 6,316.85 yuan/ton respectively on July 30, 2025, with 250, - 50, and - 107.96 yuan/ton changes compared with the previous day [3] Inventory Data - The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory on July 24, 2025, was 143,170 tons, an increase of 550 tons compared with the previous week. Among them, the inventory of smelters was 55,385 tons (-2,654 tons compared with the previous week), the inventory of downstream was 42,815 tons (+1,544 tons compared with the previous week), and the inventory of others was 44,970 tons (+1,660 tons compared with the previous week) [3] Industry News - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50% unchanged, and governors Waller and Bowman voted against and advocated for an interest rate cut [3] - On July 30, 2025, Pilbara Minerals announced that its spodumene concentrate production in the fourth fiscal quarter was 221,300 tons, and the sales volume reached 216,000 tons [3] - Non - futures company members or customers are restricted in the single - day opening positions of lithium carbonate futures contracts. For example, the single - day opening position in the LC2509 contract shall not exceed 500 lots, and in the LC2510, LC2511, LC2512, LC2601 contracts, it shall not exceed 2,000 lots [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates, with the probability of a rate cut in September reduced to less than half, leading to a rise in the dollar against most currencies and a drop in gold prices by over 1% [1] - The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its interest rates unchanged, with market attention on potential signals for resuming rate hikes, while the current bearish sentiment for USD/JPY is nearing 80% [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment of 33% and bearish sentiment of 67% [3] - The S&P 500 Index has a bullish sentiment of 34% and bearish sentiment of 66% [3] - The Nasdaq Index has a near-even split with 49% bullish and 51% bearish sentiment [3] - The Dow Jones Index shows 39% bullish and 61% bearish sentiment [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index has a bullish sentiment of 59% and bearish sentiment of 41% [3] - The German DAX 40 Index shows a strong bullish sentiment of 72% and bearish sentiment of 28% [3] Group 3 - In the forex market, the EUR/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 39% and bearish sentiment of 61% [3] - The EUR/GBP pair shows 41% bullish and 59% bearish sentiment [3] - The EUR/JPY pair has a significant bullish sentiment of 78% and bearish sentiment of 22% [3] - The EUR/AUD pair shows a strong bearish sentiment of 86% with only 14% bullish [3] - The GBP/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 31% and bearish sentiment of 69% [3] - The GBP/JPY pair shows 32% bullish and 68% bearish sentiment [3] - The USD/JPY pair has a bearish sentiment of 79% and only 21% bullish [3] - The USD/CAD pair shows a bullish sentiment of 56% and bearish sentiment of 44% [3] - The USD/CHF pair has a strong bullish sentiment of 87% and bearish sentiment of 13% [3] Group 4 - The AUD/USD pair shows a bullish sentiment of 77% and bearish sentiment of 23% [4] - The AUD/JPY pair has a bearish sentiment of 62% with only 38% bullish [4] - The CAD/JPY pair shows 40% bullish and 60% bearish sentiment [4] - The NZD/USD pair has a strong bearish sentiment of 78% with only 22% bullish [4] - The NZD/JPY pair shows 40% bullish and 60% bearish sentiment [4] - The USD/CNH pair has a bearish sentiment of 71% and only 29% bullish [4]