Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the environmental protection industry [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the environmental protection sector is entering a mature phase, leading to improved free cash flow and increased dividends due to reduced capital expenditures. The focus is on enhancing operational efficiency through heat supply and IDC collaborations, which are expected to boost ROE and valuations [12][14]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The environmental protection sector is experiencing a shift towards maturity, with capital expenditures decreasing and free cash flow turning positive in 2023, continuing to improve in 2024. This trend is expected to enhance dividend payouts significantly [12][14]. - The report notes that the waste incineration segment is seeing a decline in capital expenditures, which is positively impacting free cash flow and dividend distributions [12][14]. Company Insights - Huanlan Environment is expanding its heat supply business, leveraging existing waste incineration projects to improve operational efficiency and cash flow. The company has signed multiple heat supply agreements and is expected to increase its heat supply volume significantly in the coming years [9][10][11]. - The report emphasizes the strong dividend potential of several companies, including Junxin Co. with a cash dividend of 507 million yuan in 2024, Green Power with 418 million yuan, and Huanlan Environment with a proposed dividend of 652 million yuan [12][13][14]. Market Developments - The report indicates that the water services sector is also showing stable growth, with a projected revenue of 655 billion yuan in 2024, despite a slight decline due to one-time gains. The sector is expected to benefit from ongoing water price reforms, which will enhance profitability and valuation [16][18][19]. - The report highlights the increasing penetration of new energy sanitation vehicles, with sales growing by 73% in the first five months of 2025, indicating a shift towards more sustainable practices in the industry [26][32]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the environmental protection industry is poised for a new phase of growth driven by market reforms and operational efficiencies. Companies that can effectively manage their cash flows and adapt to changing market conditions are expected to see significant valuation increases [20][24].

Core Viewpoint - The chairman of Sunac China, Sun Hongbin, expressed optimism at the shareholders' meeting, stating that the most difficult times for the company are over, signaling a potential recovery for the firm [2][11]. Debt Restructuring - Sunac China announced a significant breakthrough in its debt restructuring, with a total of approximately $9.55 billion in overseas debt being converted into equity [4][6]. - The debt-to-equity conversion plan has received support from about 75% of the holders of the existing debt, indicating a strong consensus among creditors [6][7]. - The total debt, including both overseas and domestic, amounts to approximately 83.85 billion yuan, equivalent to about 100 tons of gold [7]. Sales Performance - Sunac's project, the Bund No. 1 Phase II, achieved a remarkable sales figure of 9.997 billion yuan in April 2024, marking it as one of the highest-selling projects in Shanghai [9]. - The company reported a cumulative sales figure exceeding 17 billion yuan in the first half of the year, securing the title of the top-selling project in the country [9][10]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Sunac China reported revenues of approximately 74.02 billion yuan, a significant decline of 52% year-on-year, while gross profit turned from a loss of 2.5 billion yuan in 2023 to a profit of 2.89 billion yuan [10]. - However, the loss attributable to shareholders widened from 7.97 billion yuan in 2023 to 25.7 billion yuan in 2024, indicating ongoing financial challenges [10]. Strategic Focus - Sunac is shifting its strategy to focus on major cities and improving project quality, aiming to replicate the success of the Bund No. 1 project [10]. - The company is undertaking a thorough review of its residential projects, implementing tailored strategies for debt restructuring and asset revitalization [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Guangxi Autonomous Region is mobilizing efforts to support Liuzhou in addressing its severe local debt crisis, which has escalated due to a combination of industrial decline and aggressive urban construction policies [1][14]. Summary by Sections Liuzhou's Debt Situation - Liuzhou's local government debt reached 1,042.7 billion yuan by the end of last year, with 788.4 billion yuan attributed to the municipal level [3]. - The city has a debt ratio of 166.39%, the highest among major cities in Guangxi [2]. - Liuzhou's financing platforms have accumulated significant hidden debts, with a total of 2,159.02 billion yuan in interest-bearing liabilities [3]. Financial Challenges - In 2024, Liuzhou's fiscal revenue is projected to be 149 billion yuan, a 4.8% decrease from 2023, while expenditures are expected to rise by 21.7% to 462 billion yuan [4]. - The city's government fund income is anticipated to drop by 53.6% to 60.66 billion yuan, exacerbating the financial strain [4]. Historical Context of Debt Accumulation - Liuzhou's debt issues stem from a history of structural imbalances, characterized by industrial stagnation and aggressive urban development [5]. - The city was once a major automotive hub, but production has declined significantly since 2017, leading to a drop in industrial output [8]. Political and Economic Implications - The debt crisis is not only a financial issue but also reflects deeper political and governance challenges within Liuzhou [14]. - The Guangxi government has proposed a comprehensive debt resolution plan, emphasizing the need for political support alongside financial measures [14]. Future Prospects and Strategies - The Guangxi government has committed to a three-year plan to help Liuzhou achieve a positive financial cycle, focusing on asset revitalization and risk prevention [14]. - Liuzhou aims to leverage artificial intelligence and manufacturing integration as a key strategy for economic recovery, with a target to exceed 100 billion yuan in AI-related industry output by 2027 [15][16].

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on the significant issuance of local government bonds in China, amounting to 5.49 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, primarily aimed at "debt replacement" and supporting infrastructure investment [1][2] - The issuance of refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts reached nearly 1.8 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of about 90%, while new special bonds issued amounted to 2.16 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 50% of the annual quota [1][2] - The urgency of "debt replacement" is highlighted as the primary task for local governments, with 42% of new special bonds in June allocated for this purpose, reflecting the pressing need to address existing debt issues [3][4] Group 2 - The issuance of local government bonds is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year, with plans for approximately 1.69 trillion yuan in new bonds, including 1.47 trillion yuan in new special bonds [6] - The focus on "debt replacement" has somewhat constrained the issuance of new local government bonds, impacting project initiation [6][7] - The government is also exploring innovative uses of special bonds, such as funding investment guidance funds to support strategic emerging industries [7]

化债持续推进，部分环保企业应收问题改善 【】【】[Table_Industry] 环保周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 29 日 156.tcy 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] 环保 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [左前明 Table_Author] 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 郭雪 环保联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525030002 邮 箱：guoxue @cindasc.com 吴柏莹 环保行业分析师 化工行业： 执业编号：S1500524100001 邮 箱：wuboying@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 化债持续推进，部分环保企业应收问题改善 2025 年 6 月 29 日 本期内容提要: ...

广西出台支持柳州市本级一揽子化债方案、柳州市本级防范化解债务风险实施方案，举全区之力支持当 地化债 化解地方债务风险压力较大的广西柳州市迎来重磅支持。 6月25日，广西壮族自治区党委常委会在柳州市召开扩大会议，专题研究柳州市债务化解和经济社会发 展工作。 此次会议指出，化解柳州债务是全区防范化解债务风险的重中之重，将举全区之力支持柳州化解债务。 会议审议通过了自治区支持柳州市本级一揽子化债方案、柳州市本级防范化解债务风险实施方案。 据新华每日电讯，广西壮族自治区财政厅主要负责人介绍，根据自治区支持柳州市本级一揽子化债方 案，自治区将从盘活处置资产、增强财政实力、支持防范风险等方面，出台5方面11条支持措施，覆盖 了柳州市化债工作各个关键环节，力争用三年左右时间，支持柳州市化债和发展工作进入良性循环。 财达证券常务副总经理胡恒松告诉第一财经，此次广西全力支持柳州化债对当地意义重大。短期内债券 市场信心或将回升，企业发债成本有所降低，银企沟通更加顺畅。但从长期来看，助力柳州摆脱债务束 缚，仍需引导地方合理融资，通过发展来化债。此次选择柳州市进行化债或可为广西其他债务负担较重 的地方提供一定参考与借鉴，将有助于这些 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market rebounded from a low level, with the Wind All A rising 0.85% and a trading volume of 1.15 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.31%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.61%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.41%, and the SSE 300 Index rose 0.29%. The index is expected to remain volatile in the future [1]. - Treasury bond futures closed with the 30-year main contract down 0.04%, the 10-year main contract down 0.01%, the 5-year main contract flat, and the 2-year main contract down 0.01%. The bond market is expected to maintain a range-bound pattern [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market rebounded from a low level, with multiple sectors leading the rise and food and beverage showing a significant decline. Overseas geopolitical conflicts have little correlation with the domestic capital market, and the recent weakening of the index is mainly due to selling pressure after the rally in early June. The Lujiazui Forum introduced a series of capital market reform measures, which are important for improving the investment environment and stabilizing market confidence. Fundamental data shows that PPI declined in May, and new RMB loans decreased year-on-year. Credit contraction and insufficient demand are the main contradictions, making it difficult for the index to break through the central level. However, corporate profits improved in H1 2025, and with the support of allocation funds, the index is not likely to fall significantly in the short term [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed with mixed results. The central bank conducted 220.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate, resulting in a net withdrawal of 21.5 billion yuan. The capital market remained loose, with DR001 down 0.4BP and DR007 up 1.4BP. The bond market strengthened slightly in June due to capital factors, but economic resilience is strong under the influence of export rush and stable growth policies. With the approaching of the half-year end, there is marginal upward pressure on funds, and the bond market lacks the momentum to strengthen significantly, so the range-bound pattern is difficult to change [1][2]. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: IH rose 0.66%, IF rose 0.63%, IC rose 0.67%, and IM rose 1.10%. Among the stock indices, the SSE 50 rose 0.41%, the SSE 300 rose 0.29%, the CSI 500 rose 0.61%, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.31% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS fell 0.01%, TF was flat, T was flat, and TL fell 0.02% [3]. Market News - The 12th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference opened in Beijing on the morning of the 23rd, focusing on "further deepening the economic system reform and promoting Chinese-style modernization" [4]. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts showing the trends and basis spreads of IH, IF, IC, and IM main contracts [6][7][9] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report provides charts showing the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis spreads, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][14][17] - **Exchange Rates**: The report provides charts showing the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, and forward exchange rates, as well as the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates [20][21][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, rating adjustments for convertible bonds may be relatively optimistic. With the expectation of economic recovery and policy support such as expanding domestic demand and debt resolution, credit risks are relatively controllable, but industry differentiation and tail risks still need attention [12]. - The A - share market valuation has recovered but remains at a relatively low level in the long - term. The risk premium shows good allocation value. The convertible bond supply is shrinking, and the demand side has certain support. The overall valuation of convertible bonds is in a reasonable range, and the valuation center is expected to fluctuate moderately in the future [15]. - Attention should be paid to popular themes, domestic demand - oriented sectors, high - dividend sectors under the Chinese - characteristic valuation system, and the military industry [15]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1. Convertible Bond Weekly Special Topic and Outlook 3.1.1. Recent Rating Adjustments - As of Friday, 237 convertible bonds have disclosed their 2025 annual follow - up rating announcements, accounting for 50.3% of the total number of convertible bonds in the market. Among the updated - rating convertible bonds, 14 have had their ratings downgraded, and the adjustment ratio of medium - and high - rated convertible bonds is significantly lower than in previous years [10]. - Rating downgrades have a short - term negative impact on convertible bonds, but the overall market impact may be relatively controllable. The prices of convertible bonds with high institutional holdings and rating downgrades have relatively large adjustments, while those with low institutional holdings and relatively low original ratings are less affected [10]. 3.1.2. Weekly Review and Market Outlook - This week, the market showed daily fluctuations and a weekly overall correction. The A - share market's three major indexes rose on Monday, adjusted on Tuesday, rose slightly on Wednesday, fell on Thursday, and adjusted with volume contraction on Friday [14]. - The A - share market valuation has recovered but is still at a relatively low level. The export order rebound has led to a narrow improvement in the May PMI. The convertible bond supply is shrinking, and the demand side has support. The convertible bond valuation is expected to fluctuate moderately in the future. Attention should be paid to different sectors [15]. 3.2. Convertible Bond Market Weekly Tracking 3.2.1. Equity Market Declined, and Pro - cyclical Sectors such as Banks Strengthened - This week, the main equity market indexes declined. Among them, the Wind All - A Index fell 1.07%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.66%. The market style was more inclined to large - cap growth [18]. - Three Shenwan industry indexes rose, and 28 declined. The banking, communication, and electronics industries rose, with increases of 2.63%, 1.58%, and 0.95% respectively [21]. 3.2.2. Convertible Bond Market Declined, and the 100 - yuan Premium Rate Decreased - This week, the convertible bond market declined. The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 0.17%, the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index rose 0.11%, and the Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index fell 0.59%. The average daily trading volume of convertible bonds decreased [23]. - Five convertible bond industries rose, and 24 declined. The non - bank finance, public utilities, and banking industries led the gains, while the media, beauty care, and social services industries led the losses [27]. - Most individual convertible bonds declined. The top five weekly gainers were Jingrui Convertible Bond, Liande Convertible Bond, Tianchuang Convertible Bond, Xuerong Convertible Bond, and Shouhua Convertible Bond. The top five weekly losers were Jinling Convertible Bond, Zhite Convertible Bond, Jindan Convertible Bond, Dongshi Convertible Bond, and Zhongchong Zhuan 2 Convertible Bond [29]. - The weighted conversion value of the whole market increased, and the premium rate rose. The weighted conversion premium rate of the whole market was 48.62%, up 1.02 pct from last weekend. The 100 - yuan parity premium rate was 18.89%, down 1.74 pct from last weekend [34]. 3.2.3. High - Frequency Tracking of Different Types of Convertible Bonds 3.2.3.1. Classification Valuation Changes - This week, the valuations of various types of convertible bonds declined. The valuations of convertible bonds with a parity of 80 - 90 yuan and 100 - 110 yuan declined, while most others increased. The valuations of AAA - rated convertible bonds increased, while those of other ratings decreased. The valuations of large - cap convertible bonds increased, while those of other scale segments decreased [42]. - Since the beginning of 2024, the conversion premium rates of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds have rebounded from the bottom. As of Friday, the conversion premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was below the 35th percentile since 2017, and that of balanced convertible bonds was below the 50th percentile [42]. 3.2.3.2. Market Index Performance - This week, AAA - rated convertible bonds rose, while those of other ratings declined. The AAA convertible bonds rose 0.43%, and AA + convertible bonds fell 0.12% [55]. - This week, large - cap convertible bonds rose, while those of other scales declined. The small - cap convertible bonds fell 0.75%, and the medium - small - cap convertible bonds fell 0.46% [57]. 3.3. Convertible Bond Supply and Clause Tracking 3.3.1. This Week's Primary Plan Issuance - One new convertible bond was listed this week (Hengshuai Convertible Bond), and five issued but unlisted convertible bonds are pending (Luwei Convertible Bond, Dianhua Convertible Bond, Anke Convertible Bond, Xizhen Convertible Bond, and Huachen Convertible Bond). One primary approval was obtained this week, and Maiwei Co., Ltd. (1.967 billion yuan) passed the shareholders' meeting [62]. - From the beginning of 2023 to June 20, 2025, the total number of planned convertible bonds was 92, with a total scale of 146.099 billion yuan [63]. 3.3.2. Downward Revision and Redemption Clauses - This week, 9 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger downward revisions, 15 announced no downward revisions, 5 proposed downward revisions, and 1 actually had a downward revision [66][67]. - Six convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger redemptions, 5 announced no early redemptions, and 1 announced an early redemption. As of the end of this week, 4 convertible bonds were still in the put - option declaration period, and 35 were in the company's capital - reduction settlement declaration period [71][73].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The stock index is expected to fluctuate. Overseas geopolitical conflicts have led to significant fluctuations in commodity prices, but the correlation with China's capital market is lower than in 2022. The recent weakness in the index is due to selling pressure after the rally in early June. Although the current economic situation shows credit contraction and insufficient demand, the improvement in corporate earnings in the first half of 2025 and the support of allocation funds will prevent the A-share index from falling sharply [1]. - The bond market is also expected to fluctuate. The central bank's open market operations have maintained a loose liquidity situation, which has slightly strengthened the bond market in June. However, the strong economic resilience driven by policies and the "front-loading exports" effect mean that the bond market lacks the momentum to rise significantly, and the volatile pattern is difficult to change in the short term [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Stock Index**: The index is expected to fluctuate. Overseas geopolitical conflicts have increased uncertainty, but the impact on the A-share market is limited. The recent weakness is due to short-term selling pressure, and the long - term trend is affected by economic fundamentals such as PPI decline and credit contraction, as well as the improvement in corporate earnings [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate. The central bank's open - market operations maintain loose liquidity, but the strong economic resilience restricts the upward movement of bond prices [1][2]. 2. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On June 19, 2025, compared with the previous day, the prices of IH, IF, IC, and IM all declined, with decreases of 0.68%, 0.82%, 1.05%, and 1.21% respectively [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined, with decreases of 0.54%, 0.82%, 1.20%, and 1.42% respectively [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 30 - year main contract rose 0.16%, while the 5 - year and 2 - year main contracts fell 0.02% and 0.01% respectively, and the 10 - year main contract remained stable [1][3]. 3. Market News - On June 19, the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that it opposes any actions that violate the purposes and principles of the UN Charter and the use or threat of force in international relations. It called on major powers to promote cease - fires and return to dialogue [5]. 4. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The document provides trend charts of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trend charts of each index futures [7][8][9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The document provides trend charts of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, inter - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][15][17]. - **Exchange Rates**: The document provides charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and cross - exchange rates such as euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen [21][22][23]

Core Viewpoint - ST Yigou is divesting its four Carrefour subsidiaries for a total of 4 RMB, aiming to reduce debt burden and improve operational performance [2][5][6]. Group 1: Transaction Details - The transaction involves the sale of 100% equity in Ningbo Carrefour, Hangzhou Carrefour, Zhuzhou Carrefour, and Shenyang Carrefour for a nominal price of 1 RMB each, totaling 4 RMB [2][4]. - The buyer is Shanghai Jiafu Qishu Enterprise Service Partnership, which is being established with the involvement of Youan Law Firm and other partners [4]. - The subsidiaries have ceased operations and carry significant debt, making this divestment a strategic move for ST Yigou [5][6]. Group 2: Financial Impact - The transaction is expected to increase ST Yigou's net profit by approximately 572 million RMB [2][6]. - The financial assessment indicates that the total liabilities of the four subsidiaries are substantial, with Ningbo Carrefour alone having liabilities of 162 million RMB [5][6]. - The divestment is part of a broader strategy to enhance the company's financial health and operational focus on its core business in home appliances and 3C products [2][10]. Group 3: Company Performance - In 2024, ST Yigou reported a revenue of 56.791 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 9.32%, but achieved a net profit of 610 million RMB, marking a turnaround from losses [8]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities improved significantly, reaching 4.586 billion RMB, a 57.56% increase year-on-year [8]. - Despite improvements, the company still faces high debt levels, with an asset-liability ratio of 90.63% as of the end of last year [9].