大类资产与基金周报（20260126-20260130）—— [Table_Title] [Table_Message]2026-02-01 金融工程周报 黄金冲高回落，商品基金涨幅 4.75% [Table_Author] 证券分析师：刘晓锋 电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 证券分析师：孙弋轩 电话：18910596766 E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190525080001 内容摘要 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 [Table_Summary] . 金 融 工 程 周 报 ◼ 大类资产市场概况：1）权益：本周 A 股市场中上证指数收盘 4117.95，涨跌幅-0.44%， 深证成指、中小板指数、创业板指、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、中证 2000、 北证 50 涨跌幅分别为-1.62%、-3.78%、-0.09%、1.13%、0.08%、-2.5 ...

全球宏观及大类资产配置周报 东证衍生品研究院 宏观策略组 2026年2月2日 上海东证期货有限公司 目录 一、宏观脉络追踪 二、全球大类资产走势一览 三、大类资产周度展望 ——贵金属、外汇、美股、A股、国债 四、全球宏观经济数据跟踪 一、宏观脉络追踪 宏观脉络追踪 | | 截至2026/01/30 | 近三个月走势 | 近一周涨跌幅 | 当月涨跌幅 | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发达国家 | 标普500 | | 0.34% | 1.37% | 1.37% | | | 德国DAX | | -1.45% | 0.20% | 0.20% | | | 日经225 | | -0.97% | 5.93% | 5.93% | | | 英国富时100 | | 0.79% | 2.94% | 2.94% | | | 法国CAC40指数 | | -0.20% | -0.28% | -0.28% | | | 韩国KOSPI综合指数 | | 4.70% | 23.97% | 23.97% | | | 加拿大标普/TSX指数 | | -3.69% | 0.66% ...

在低利率环境下，"保本"理财已成历史，叠加权益市场波动加大，固收类产品依然是投资者资产配置的 重要选择。2025年基金四季报披露完毕，华安基金固收产品线交出亮眼答卷。作为长期深耕固收领域的 老牌公募，华安基金精心打造"固收家"产品谱系，涵盖纯债、固收+、流动性管理等三大产品线，适配 全场景资金投资需求。 从整体业绩来看，国泰海通证券数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，华安基金旗下固定收益类基金近三年 收益率为11.08%，近五年收益率为18.38%。 为满足投资者多样化、差异化的投资需求，华安基金"固收家"搭建起三大类产品线，一是纯债基金大 类，包含以信用策略和利率策略为主的产品。二是"固收+"基金类，包含绝对收益低波定位、相对收益 中波定位和工具型高波定位的丰富产品。三是流动性管理基金，包含中短债基和货币基金。 华安基金"固收家"产品线呈现"多点开花"的态势，多只产品业绩突出。具体来看，低波产品线持续发 力，国泰海通证券数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，华安基金旗下纯债类基金近三年收益率为9.61%， 近五年收益率为16.96%。 在纯债基金管理方面，华安基金固收团队构建了"策略模块化、执行标准化"的 ...

Core Insights - The wealth management transformation in the financial industry is at a critical juncture, requiring institutions to possess strong capabilities in asset allocation to ensure continuous value preservation and growth for clients [1][2]. Industry Challenges - The transformation is likened to a challenging summer season, testing the resilience of institutions due to the cyclical nature of the brokerage industry, talent loss, and the need for strategic adjustments in various sectors such as banks, public funds, and trusts [2]. - The end of the fixed income bull market poses significant pressure on banks and wealth management subsidiaries, while public funds face regulatory adjustments and talent retention issues [2]. Key Capabilities for Transformation - Successful transformation hinges on building three core capabilities: timing in large cycles, an integrated research and investment system across multiple assets and strategies, and a product line that can navigate both bull and bear markets [2][3]. Talent as a Driving Force - Two key talent categories are essential for successful transformation: "soul players" with unique insights into asset classes and "mid-to-upper stream players" who can dynamically optimize asset allocation based on guidance from the "soul players" [3]. - The implementation of a platform-based, integrated, multi-strategy research system is becoming standard in the industry, enhancing efficiency and addressing traditional pain points in research and investment [3]. Product Ecosystem Development - The construction of a product line that can withstand market fluctuations is crucial, with a dual-cycle business model that leverages core advantages and digital platforms to create benchmark products during bull markets [4]. - A strategic approach involves capitalizing on market opportunities during bull phases while shifting focus to bank wealth management during bear phases, ensuring a consistent upward trajectory in returns [4].

Macroeconomic Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.08% this week, while the CSI 300 Index futures rose by 0.11%[1] - The yield on ten-year government bonds decreased by 2 basis points to 1.81%[1] - The yield on wealth management products from joint-stock banks settled at 1.85%, while the annualized yield of Yu'ebao remained at 1.00%[1] Asset Performance - Futures for coking coal rose by 2.75%, and iron ore futures increased by 0.13% this week[1] - The commodity futures index increased by 5.71% this week, indicating strong performance in the commodity sector[6] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.40% to 97.12, while international oil prices surged by 7.65% to $65.74 per barrel[4] Investment Strategy - The recommended asset allocation order is: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Currency[4] - The outlook for stocks is positive, with an emphasis on the implementation of "incremental" policies[2] - Bonds are underweighted due to potential short-term impacts from the stock-bond "teeter-totter" effect[2] Economic Indicators - In December, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 5.3% year-on-year, reversing a decline from November[4] - The total fiscal revenue for 2025 was 21.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year, while fiscal expenditure increased by 1% to 28.74 trillion yuan[18] Risks and Considerations - Global inflation may rise again, and there is a risk of unexpected economic downturns in Europe and the U.S.[4] - The geopolitical landscape remains uncertain, which could impact market stability[2]

金融工程| 证券研究报告 —周报 2026 年 2 月 1 日 中银量化大类资产跟踪 权益高点震荡，贵金属外盘现领跌行情 股票市场概览 ◼ 本周 A 股市场整体下跌，港股市场整体上涨，美股市场走势分化，其 他海外权益市场走势分化。 A 股风格与拥挤度 成长 vs 红利：相对拥挤度及超额净值近期处于历史较高位置，需注 意成长风格的配置风险。 小盘vs大盘：相对拥挤度及超额净值均未处于历史高位，小盘风格当 前具有较高的配置性价比。 微盘股 vs 中证 800：相对拥挤度及超额净值持续处于历史高位，需注 意微盘股风格的配置风险。 A 股行情跟踪 A 股估值与股债性价比 A 股资金面 利率市场 ◼ 本周中国国债利率下跌，美国国债利率上涨，中美利差处于历史高位。 证券分析师: 郭策 (8610) 66229081 ce.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522080002 汇率市场 ◼ 近一周在岸人民币较美元升值，离岸人民币较美元贬值。 商品市场 ◼ 本周中国商品市场整体上涨，美国商品市场整体下跌。 风险提示 ◼ 量化模型因市场剧烈变动失效。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资 ...

Macro Economic Overview - The report indicates an increase in volatility in international capital markets, with a recommended asset allocation order of equities > commodities > bonds > currencies [1][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.08% this week, while the ten-year government bond yield decreased by 2 basis points to 1.81% [1][11] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests an overweight position in equities, emphasizing the importance of the implementation of "incremental" policies [2][3] - A cautious stance is recommended for bonds due to potential short-term impacts from the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, leading to an underweight allocation [2][3] - The report maintains a neutral position on commodities, highlighting the need to monitor fiscal spending in 2026 [2][3] Economic Data Insights - Industrial profits for December showed a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, reversing a previous decline [4][18] - The fiscal revenue for 2025 was reported at 21.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year, while fiscal expenditure increased by 1% [4][18] Market Performance - The report notes that the A-share market experienced mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index leading gains while the ChiNext Index saw a decline of 3.78% [36] - In the commodities market, coal futures rose by 2.75%, and iron ore futures increased by 0.13% [1][11] Policy Developments - The report highlights the publication of a significant article by President Xi Jinping on the importance of building a strong financial nation, emphasizing the need for a robust economic foundation and effective financial institutions [4][19] - The State Council issued a plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, outlining 12 policy measures targeting key sectors [4][20]

记者梳理发现，就在美联储公布利率决议的同一天，北京时间1月29日下午，瑞典央行也公布了其2026 年1月利率决议，决定维持现有利率水平在1.75%不变，加上此前同样做出暂停降息举动的加拿大央 行、挪威央行，2026年1月多个西方经济体央行集体"按兵不动"，自2024年开启的新一轮宽松周期似有 放缓迹象。 "当前多国央行宣布暂停降息，应更理解为全球宽松进程的节奏放缓，而非流动性的全面收紧。"在中航 证券首席经济学家董忠云看来，即便海外市场流动性进一步宽松的速度暂时放缓，但当前全球整体流动 性环境仍处于相对宽松的状态，特别是市场对美联储等主要央行在2026年启动降息的预期依然存在，这 也将对流动性形成支撑。 从市场反应看，基于此前各方已对美联储暂停降息有较为充足的预期，美联储宣布维持现有利率水平不 变后，美股主要股指在盘中维持弱势震荡走势，并未出现明显波动，国际贵金属价格则延续近期上涨态 势。 ● 本报记者 胡雨 截至北京时间1月29日中国证券报记者发稿时，1月以来已有美联储、瑞典央行、挪威央行、加拿大央行 等多个西方经济体央行公布最新利率决议，前述央行集体选择按兵不动，降息进程进一步放缓将对全球 资产带来哪些影 ...

在中航证券首席经济学家董忠云看来，当前多国央行宣布暂停降息，应理解为全球宽松进程的节奏放 缓，而非流动性的全面收紧。即使海外市场流动性进一步宽松的速度暂时放缓，但当前全球整体流动性 环境仍处于相对宽松状态，特别是市场对美联储等在2026年启动降息的预期依然存在，这将对流动性形 成支撑。 截至北京时间1月29日中国证券报·中证金牛座记者发稿时，1月以来已有美联储、瑞典央行、挪威央 行、加拿大央行等多个重要经济体央行选择暂停降息。2024年以来新一轮宽松周期有放缓脚步的迹象， 这对大类资产配置会带来怎样的影响值得关注。 大类资产配置该如何调整？权益市场方面，董忠云建议，一方面，聚焦高景气成长赛道，特别是人工智 能产业链（包括算力基础设施、半导体、端侧硬件）及高端制造（机器人、新能源）；另一方面，可配 置高股息红利资产（如银行、公用事业、能源央企等）作为防御底仓。 对于黄金和债市，王开认为，黄金等贵金属短期走高后不排除震荡调整风险，但黄金长期配置逻辑并未 改变。对于债券市场，建议以票息策略为主，不宜过度通过加杠杆博取资本利得。 外围流动性宽松节奏放缓对中国资产影响几何？国信证券首席策略分析师王开认为，实质性影响有限 ...

Performance Overview - As of January 23, 2026, the total scale of fixed income + funds reached CNY 21,780.36 billion, with 1,157 products available, of which 824 achieved historical net value highs last week[2] - The median performance of various fund types for the week (January 19-23, 2026) was as follows: mixed bond type I (0.26%), type II (0.47%), partially bond mixed (0.56%), flexible allocation (0.37%), bond type FOF (0.42%), and mixed type FOF (0.63%) [2] Asset Allocation and Strategy - The macro environment forecast for Q1 2026 indicates a slowdown, with the Shanghai Composite Index, China Government Bond Index, and gold contract AU9999 yielding 1.57%, 0.36%, and 14.08% respectively for January[3] - The recommended industry ETFs for January 2026 include coal, steel, securities companies, and banking sectors, with a weekly return of 1.77% and a cumulative return of 1.41% for the month[3] Absolute Return Strategies - The stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy yielded 0.00% last week, with a year-to-date (YTD) return of 0.51%, while the stock-bond risk parity strategy returned 0.13% last week (YTD 0.43%) [4] - The small-cap value strategy within the stock-bond 20/80 combination showed a notable YTD return of 2.95%, while the cumulative return for the small-cap value strategy with macro momentum model reached 4.36%[4] Risk Assessment - Risks identified include factor failure risk, model mis-specification risk, and historical statistical regularity failure risk[5] High-Performing Products - A total of 824 fixed income + products reached historical net value highs, categorized by risk type: conservative (443), balanced (143), and aggressive (238) [19] - Top-performing products include: - Guangfa Jiajia A with a 9.88% increase over the past year[20] - Qianhai Kaiyuan Yuyuan with a 57.69% increase over the past year[20]