大类资产配置

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大类资产早报-20250729
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 03:21
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the global asset market performance on July 28, 2025, including data on major economies' 10 - year and 2 - year government bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading data [3][5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory Global Asset Market Performance - **Government Bond Yields**: - **10 - year Government Bonds**: In major economies such as the US, UK, France, etc., yields showed various changes. For example, the US 10 - year government bond yield was 4.412 on July 28, 2025, with a latest change of 0.033, a one - week change of 0.182, and a one - month change of 0.209 [3]. - **2 - year Government Bonds**: Different economies also had different yield trends. For instance, the US 2 - year government bond yield was 3.903 on July 28, 2025, with a latest change of 0.022, a one - week change of 0.038, and a one - month change of - 0.061 [3]. - **Exchange Rates**: - **Dollar against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: The dollar against currencies like the South African rand, Russian ruble, etc., had different percentage changes. For example, the dollar - South African rand exchange rate was 5.589 on July 28, 2025, with a latest change of 0.44% and a one - week change of 0.38% [3]. - **Renminbi**: The on - shore and off - shore renminbi exchange rates and the middle - price also had corresponding changes. For example, the on - shore renminbi exchange rate was 7.179 on July 28, 2025, with a latest change of 0.13% and a one - week change of 0.13% [3]. - **Stock Indices**: - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: Indices such as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq had different percentage changes. For example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 6389.770 on July 28, 2025, with a latest change of 0.02%, a one - week change of 1.33%, and a one - month change of 2.98% [3]. - **Other Stock Indices**: Including the Nikkei, Hang Seng Index, etc., also showed different trends. For example, the Hang Seng Index was 25562.130 on July 28, 2025, with a latest change of 0.68%, a one - week change of 2.27%, and a one - month change of 6.19% [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: Different credit bond indices in emerging economies and developed economies, such as emerging economies' investment - grade and high - yield credit bond indices, and the US and euro - zone investment - grade and high - yield credit bond indices, showed different performances [3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 were presented. For example, the closing price of A - shares was 3597.94 with a percentage change of 0.12% [5]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) and its环比 changes of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were given. For example, the PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 13.52 with a环比 change of 0.01 [5]. - **Risk Premium**: Although the specific values were not filled in, the relevant indicators for CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were mentioned [5]. - **Fund Flow**: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, the main board, and other segments were provided. For example, the latest value of A - share fund flow was - 472.56 [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc., were shown. For example, the latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 17423.07 with a环比 change of - 450.30 [5]. - **Main Contract Premium or Discount**: The basis and percentage changes of IF, IH, and IC were presented. For example, the basis of IF was - 13.82 with a percentage change of - 0.33% [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices and Percentage Changes**: The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 108.395, 105.720, 108.400, and 105.785 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.00% each [6]. - **Funding Rates**: The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.4907%, 1.6264%, and 1.5600% respectively, with daily changes of - 20.00 BP, - 6.00 BP, and 0.00 BP [6].
大类资产周报:资产配置与金融工程风险偏好明显抬升,增长和通胀均边际改善-20250728
Guoyuan Securities· 2025-07-28 08:46
Market Overview - The macro environment shows signs of marginal improvement in growth and inflation, with liquidity remaining loose[4] - The CSI 500 index leads the A-share market with a gain of 3.28%, reflecting a structural market rally[4] - The total trading volume in the A-share market increased by 19.3% week-on-week, indicating enhanced investor participation[61] Asset Allocation Recommendations - Fixed Income: Focus on medium to short-duration high-grade credit bonds while avoiding long-duration bonds due to rising interest rate risks[5] - A-shares: Maintain a cautious approach due to valuation pressures, while looking for rotation opportunities in undervalued sectors[5] - Commodities: Overall underweight position, with a focus on opportunities in new energy and domestic demand-related sectors[5] Risk Factors - Key risks include policy adjustments, market volatility, geopolitical shocks, economic data validation risks, and liquidity transmission risks[6] International Markets - Recent U.S. economic data has marginally exceeded expectations, suggesting potential opportunities in U.S. equities[8] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.82%, indicating a weakening dollar which may benefit non-U.S. assets[58] Inflation and Growth Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) continues to show downward pressure, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown marginal improvement, rising by 0.1% year-on-year[53] - The Business Conditions Index (BCI) recorded a value of 49.3, indicating a contraction in business conditions[44]
中银量化大类资产跟踪:融资余额持续上行,小盘成长风格占优行情延续
Bank of China Securities· 2025-07-27 11:03
金融工程| 证券研究报告 —周报 2025 年 7 月 27 日 中银量化大类资产跟踪 融资余额持续上行,小盘成长风格占优行情延 续 股票市场概览 ◼ 本周 A 股上涨,港股上涨,美股上涨,其他海外权益市场走势分化。 A 股风格与拥挤度 成长 vs 红利:成长风格拥挤度及超额净值持续处于历史低位;红利 风格拥挤度近期处于历史较低位置。 小盘 vs 大盘:大盘、小盘风格超额净值及拥挤度均处于历史低位。 微盘股 vs 基金重仓:近期微盘股拥挤度上升至历史较高位置;基金 重仓拥挤度及超额累计净值持续处于历史低位。 A 股行情及成交热度 汇率市场 ◼ 近一周在岸人民币较美元升值,离岸人民币较美元升值。 商品市场 ◼ 本周中国商品市场整体上涨,美国商品市场整体上涨。 ◼ 本周领涨的行业为煤炭、钢铁、有色金属;领跌的行业为银行、综合 金融、通信。本周成交热度最高的行业为建筑、钢铁、轻工制造;成 交热度最低的行业为电子、食品饮料、传媒。 A 股估值与股债性价比 A 股资金面 机构调研活跃度 ◼ 当前机构调研活跃度历史分位居前的行业为房地产、商贸零售、通 信,居后的行业为银行、医药、电子。 利率市场 ◼ 本周中国国债利率上涨 ...
指数基金产品研究系列报告之二百五十一:国泰上证10年国债ETF:T+0交易的中长久期国债投资工具
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-07-25 11:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is still in a long - position channel in the second half of 2025. The exchange - rate constraint has weakened significantly. With the coordinated efforts of monetary and fiscal policies, liquidity is expected to remain loose. The decline in institutional liability costs is expected to bring incremental funds to the bond market. The weak economic fundamentals suggest a low possibility of short - term fiscal policy intensification, and inflation improvement may occur in the fourth quarter [1]. - The allocation value of 10 - year treasury bonds is prominent. They are suitable for asset allocation, with better market depth and breadth. Compared with medium - short - term and ultra - long - term treasury bonds, they have advantages in duration and risk - return ratio [1]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 10 - year Treasury Bond Index can connect treasury bond futures and spot markets. It has high return stability, low volatility, and low risk [1]. - The Guotai Shanghai Stock Exchange 10 - year Treasury Bond ETF has investment value, including low fees, good tracking effect, scarcity, diverse trading mechanisms, and excellent investment performance [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Review of the Interest - Rate Bond Market in the First Half of 2025 - The yield curve of treasury bonds first experienced a "bear - flat" and then a "bull - flat" trend. In Q1 2025, long - term bonds corrected due to tightened funds and bank liability pressure. In April 2025, the bond market quickly turned bullish. From May to June 2025, after the yield declined to a low level, the focus was on exploring spreads [7]. - The bond market in 2025 has three new features: the central bank's policy rate is the bottom of the money market; short - term bonds perform weakly, and long - term bonds are difficult to trade; the overall fundamentals are stable, but tariff pulses have a large impact [13]. 3.1.2 The Bond Market Remains in a Long - Position Channel in the Second Half of 2025 - Liquidity is expected to remain loose in July. The decline in institutional liability costs will bring incremental funds to the bond market, including the reset of bank time deposits and the potential reduction of insurance product preset interest rates [17][21]. - The weak economic fundamentals suggest a low possibility of short - term fiscal policy intensification. Inflation may bottom out in the third quarter, and improvement may occur in the fourth quarter. The bond market is still in a long - position window, but the odds are limited, and the current trading logic may continue to focus on exploring spreads [1][29]. 3.1.3 The Allocation Value of 10 - Year Treasury Bonds is Prominent - 10 - year treasury bonds are suitable for asset allocation as their pricing is based on fundamentals, and their pricing logic is different from that of stocks and commodities [37]. - The 10 - year treasury bond market has better depth and breadth, with large scale, wide participation, high trading activity, and a good futures - spot linkage effect. Its market position may be further consolidated in the future [45]. - Compared with medium - short - term treasury bonds, 10 - year treasury bonds have duration offensive advantages and a coupon safety cushion. Compared with ultra - long - term treasury bonds, they have a better risk - return ratio [49][57]. 3.2 Shanghai Stock Exchange 10 - Year Treasury Bond Index: A Bridge Connecting Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Index Compilation Scheme - The index was launched on March 7, 2013. Its sample bonds are treasury bonds listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange with a remaining maturity between 6.5 and 10.25 years. It uses market - value weighting to reflect the overall performance of treasury bonds in the corresponding maturity range in the Shanghai market [64]. - The specific compilation scheme includes sample bond selection, index calculation, and sample adjustment (regular and temporary adjustments) [67]. 3.2.2 Basic Index Features - The index has high return stability, low volatility, and low risk. Since the base period, its cumulative return has reached 85.76%, with an annualized return of 4.82%, a maximum drawdown of - 6.86%, and an annualized volatility of 2.87% [71]. - All sample bonds are deliverable bonds for T contracts. The index has high concentration, and its duration is generally between 7 and 7.4 years, currently at 7.61 years [74][78]. 3.3 Guotai Shanghai Stock Exchange 10 - Year Treasury Bond ETF 3.3.1 Basic Information - The fund was established on August 4, 2017, by Guotai Fund, with Wang Yu and Wang Zhenyang as fund managers. As of July 18, 2025, its scale is 15.547 billion yuan. The management fee and custody fee are 0.15% and 0.05% respectively [80]. - It is one of the bond funds with the lowest fees, and as an on - exchange product, it does not charge subscription or redemption fees [83]. 3.3.2 Investment Method - The fund mainly invests in the constituent treasury bonds and alternative constituent treasury bonds of the target index (with a proportion of not less than 90% of the fund's net asset value). It uses an optimized sampling replication method to track the target index, aiming for an annualized tracking error of no more than 2%. Since its establishment, the annualized tracking error has been 1.43% [84][87]. 3.3.3 The Only Product Tracking the Shanghai Stock Exchange 10 - Year Treasury Bond Index in the Market - Currently, most domestic interest - rate bond index funds cover policy - financial bond indices, and long - duration interest - rate bond indices and treasury bond indices are relatively scarce. The Guotai Shanghai Stock Exchange 10 - Year Treasury Bond ETF is the only product tracking the Shanghai Stock Exchange 10 - year Treasury Bond Index, with scarcity [91]. 3.3.4 Trading Mechanism - The fund can be traded on the secondary market, and its IOPV is publicly announced, supporting T + 0 trading. It has sufficient liquidity, and the deviation between IOPV and trading price is low [97]. - The fund also supports physical redemption and has a pledge - repurchase business, with a current conversion ratio of about 94.48%, which meets the refinancing needs of investors [102]. 3.3.5 Investment Performance - Since its establishment, the fund has an annualized return of 4.01%, a maximum drawdown of - 4.56%, an annualized volatility of 2.45%, a Calmar ratio of 0.88, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.03. It has achieved positive returns for six consecutive years, and its maximum annual drawdown is generally no more than 3% [103]. - In the past three years, its return has led 92.30% of interest - rate bond index funds [107]. 3.4 Fund Manager Information 3.4.1 Fund Manager Introduction - Guotai Fund was established in March 1998, one of the first batch of standardized fund management companies in China. It has a complete product line and various business qualifications, with a total asset management scale of 114.34 billion yuan [111]. 3.4.2 Fund Manager Introduction - Wang Yu has a master's degree, joined Guotai Fund in January 2016, and currently manages 10 products with a total scale of 23.148 billion yuan [112]. - Wang Zhenyang has a master's degree, joined Guotai Fund in December 2024, and currently manages 4 products with a total scale of 23.302 billion yuan [115].
稳健养老投资的优质选择——景顺长城保守养老目标一年持有(019665&022272)投资价值分析
Huafu Securities· 2025-07-22 08:04
Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: "Core + Satellite" Dual-Layer Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to balance "stability" and "growth" by combining low-correlation asset classes to smooth volatility and achieve returns[4][53] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Core Layer**: Primarily consists of interest rate bonds, supplemented by credit bonds[53] - **Satellite Layer**: Includes high-volatility assets such as equities, overseas assets, and commodities. These assets are allocated across regions and strategies to reduce portfolio drawdowns and achieve stable returns[53] - **Model Evaluation**: The dual-layer structure effectively reduces portfolio volatility while maintaining stable returns, aligning with the fund's conservative investment objectives[4][53] 2. Risk Control System - **Model Construction Idea**: The primary goal is to limit maximum drawdowns to ensure principal safety while pursuing stable annualized returns[54] - **Model Construction Process**: - Strict risk control measures are implemented to ensure a positive return experience for investors at any entry point[54] - Risk budgets are adjusted dynamically to reduce exposure to asset classes with anticipated risks, avoiding "buying the dip" strategies[54] - **Model Evaluation**: The risk control system ensures a smooth investment experience, reducing irrational redemptions and maintaining portfolio management continuity[54] 3. Return Realization Path - **Model Construction Idea**: The model emphasizes a diversified approach to achieve returns through bonds, equities, and commodities[57] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Bond Investments**: Focus on government bonds, supplemented by credit bonds[57] - **Equity Investments**: Core allocation to passive funds, with at least 50% of total equity exposure. The remaining allocation is split between individual stocks and active funds, with intra-day stop-loss and stop-gain mechanisms[57] - **Commodity Strategy**: Utilized as a supplementary return source[57] - **Model Evaluation**: The diversified approach ensures stable returns while mitigating risks through dynamic adjustments and sector/region rotation[57] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. "Core + Satellite" Dual-Layer Framework - **Annualized Return**: 5.16% (A-class), 5.84% (Y-class)[24][28][32] - **Annualized Volatility**: 1.68% (A-class), 1.90% (Y-class)[24][28][32] - **Sharpe Ratio (IR)**: 2.61 (A-class), 2.23 (Y-class)[24][28][32] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -0.88% (both A-class and Y-class)[24][28][32] - **Calmar Ratio**: 5.66 (A-class), 6.33 (Y-class)[24][28][32] 2. Peer Comparison - **Annualized Return (Median)**: 4.76% (peer group)[49] - **Annualized Volatility (Median)**: 4.22% (peer group)[49] - **Sharpe Ratio (Median)**: 0.82 (peer group)[49] - **Maximum Drawdown (Median)**: -3.17% (peer group)[49] - **Calmar Ratio (Median)**: 1.53 (peer group)[49] 3. Performance Rankings - **Sharpe Ratio Ranking**: Top 1.20% among peers[49] - **Maximum Drawdown Ranking**: Top 2.40% among peers[49] - **Calmar Ratio Ranking**: Top 2.20% among peers[49] 4. Additional Metrics - **3-Month Positive Return Probability**: 100% for both A-class and Y-class[33] - **Longest Non-New High Period**: 42 days (A-class), 39 days (Y-class)[40][43] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Multi-Asset Allocation - **Factor Construction Idea**: Diversify across asset classes to reduce correlation and smooth portfolio volatility[53] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Allocate to low-correlation assets such as bonds, equities, and commodities[53] - Adjust allocations dynamically based on market conditions and risk assessments[54] - **Factor Evaluation**: The multi-asset allocation strategy effectively balances risk and return, ensuring stable performance across market cycles[53][54] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Multi-Asset Allocation Factor - **Annualized Return**: 5.16% (A-class), 5.84% (Y-class)[24][28][32] - **Annualized Volatility**: 1.68% (A-class), 1.90% (Y-class)[24][28][32] - **Sharpe Ratio (IR)**: 2.61 (A-class), 2.23 (Y-class)[24][28][32] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -0.88% (both A-class and Y-class)[24][28][32] - **Calmar Ratio**: 5.66 (A-class), 6.33 (Y-class)[24][28][32]
既害怕追高又担心踏空,这类基民该怎么办?
天天基金网· 2025-07-21 11:33
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent stable performance of the A-share market, highlighting that all 31 Shenwan first-level industries recorded positive returns from June 23 to July 18, indicating a structural bull market where holding any sector would yield profits [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The TMT sector, particularly telecommunications and computers, led the gains, while defense, military, and biomedicine also performed well in the growth sector [1] - High-dividend sectors, especially steel, showed strong performance [1] - The ChiNext Index outperformed the ChiNext Composite Index, indicating a potential structural bull market where certain sectors may not outperform the overall market [1] Group 2: Investor Psychology - Investors often experience anxiety about market uncertainty, fearing both missing out on gains and the risk of buying at high prices [2][3] - This anxiety reflects a growing awareness among investors, marking a step towards maturity in investment behavior [2] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The article suggests three levels of construction to address the conflicting emotions of fear and opportunity in investing [2] - The first level emphasizes psychological adjustment, advocating for acceptance of imperfection in market predictions and focusing on building a diversified investment portfolio [3][4] - The second level discusses the importance of asset allocation, recommending a mix of equity and bond investments to smooth out volatility and enhance returns [5][6] - The third level stresses the significance of position sizing and risk management, advising investors to maintain a portion of cash to manage potential market pullbacks effectively [7][8]
管理300亿基金的固收名将离任,下一站或将“奔私”
21世纪经济报道· 2025-07-17 13:53
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in the management of multiple funds at Anxin Fund, particularly focusing on the departure of renowned fund manager Zhang Yifei, who is expected to transition to private equity after his departure [1][2]. Group 1: Zhang Yifei's Background and Career - Zhang Yifei has a master's degree in economics and has held various positions in finance, including roles at Morgan Steel (Shanghai) and the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [3]. - He joined Anxin Fund in September 2012, became a public fund manager in March 2014, and was promoted to Deputy General Manager in May 2023, but left this position less than a year later [3]. Group 2: Fund Management Performance - Zhang Yifei is recognized as a rare "fixed income +" fund manager who has successfully navigated multiple stock and bond cycles, gaining significant market attention, especially after the market turbulence in 2021 [5]. - Under his management, the funds he oversaw achieved notable performance, with a total management scale reaching 32.192 billion yuan [5]. - The Anxin Stable Value Fund, managed by Zhang Yifei, has consistently delivered positive returns every year since its inception, with a total return of 82.45% and an annualized return of 6.1%, while maintaining a maximum drawdown of only 7.2% [5]. Group 3: Transition of Fund Management - Following Zhang Yifei's departure, the management of the funds will be taken over by Li Jun and Huang Wanshu, who are also part of the Anxin Fund's mixed investment team [5].
和保险的大佬聊了聊
表舅是养基大户· 2025-07-17 13:30
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current investment landscape, particularly focusing on the insurance sector's asset allocation strategies and the shift towards equity investments due to the underperformance of the bond market [3][4]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - There is a consensus in the industry that after a downturn in the bond market, investors are looking to equities for returns, although there are concerns about high valuations and the sustainability of upward momentum [3]. - Institutional investors have been net sellers of broad-based ETFs, with over 100 billion sold since mid-April, indicating a cautious approach despite a high risk appetite reflected in the net inflow into industry ETFs [3]. - The insurance sector faces challenges in absolute and relative performance assessments, necessitating a focus on alpha opportunities within the industry [4]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Challenges - Insurance companies are constrained by asset-liability matching requirements, which limits their ability to invest heavily in equities, necessitating a continued allocation to long-duration bonds [4]. - The overall investment process in insurance firms is evolving towards a more team-oriented approach to ensure consistent expectations and performance across different accounts [5][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The insurance sector is experiencing a gradual increase in equity allocation, driven by high costs of liabilities and a mismatch in the speed of asset allocation between fixed income and equities [5]. - The current low interest rate environment has led to a significant increase in insurance premium income, but the sustainability of this growth is questioned due to the potential for asset-liability mismatches [6][9]. Group 4: Research and Analysis - There is a need for cross-research among different asset classes within financial institutions to avoid siloed thinking and enhance overall market understanding [7][8]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the broader market context, particularly the implications of low interest rates on asset valuations and investment strategies [9].
新征程!我的16年生涯回顾与下一站去向
鲁明量化全视角· 2025-07-16 07:35
Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the author's 16-year career in the finance industry, emphasizing the importance of mentorship, professional growth, and the aspiration to become a top fund manager in China [1][2][7]. Group 1: Career Development - The author began their career in 2006 at Pacific Securities, where they received early encouragement to become an excellent fund manager, which became a guiding principle [2]. - Transitioning to Haitong Securities, the author focused on quantitative analysis, contributing to the team's recognition in the market [3]. - The move to CITIC Securities was influenced by a mentor's recognition of the author's research methodology, reinforcing their career aspirations [4]. Group 2: Market Insights and Contributions - In 2018, during a challenging market environment due to US-China trade tensions, the author utilized a quantitative macro-timing system to provide accurate market predictions [4]. - The author played a significant role in providing market stabilization suggestions during the trade conflict, receiving recognition from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [4]. - In 2020, the author led a pivotal investment decision that significantly boosted the company's quarterly performance, marking a high point in their career [5]. Group 3: Future Aspirations - In 2023, the author set a goal to become the top fund manager in China, supported by the leadership's commitment to talent development [7]. - The author achieved the highest annual timing return in their career, reflecting the effectiveness of their research and investment strategies [8]. - The establishment of Shanghai Ruicheng Fund is aimed at fulfilling the author's long-term vision of creating a competitive investment product that leverages quantitative strategies and economic cycle theories [11].
国泰海通|策略:烽火再起:特朗普新关税或冲击风险偏好——大类资产配置周度点评(20250715)
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-07-15 14:10
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article maintains a tactical asset allocation strategy, recommending an overweight in Hong Kong stocks, a standard allocation in gold and RMB, and an underweight in Japanese stocks and US Treasuries [1][2]. - Global market risk appetite has been recovering, driven by the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, marginal improvements in US-China relations, and the resilience of the US economy, leading to strong performance in risk assets like equities and commodities, while safe-haven assets like bonds and gold faced pressure [1][2]. - Trump's announcement of new tariffs may temporarily disrupt market risk appetite, increasing geopolitical uncertainty, but the overall market is expected to adjust back to the previous recovery trend after a brief impact [1][2]. Group 2 - The market is still in the process of repricing US Treasuries based on the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which involves significant fiscal spending increases and may lead to a substantial expansion of the federal deficit [2]. - The article expresses optimism towards Hong Kong stocks due to improving liquidity and risk appetite, while being cautious about Japanese stocks facing inflationary pressures [2]. - Despite short-term pressure on gold from risk appetite fluctuations, global macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties continue to support its allocation value [2].