8年来，公募FOF产品数量和整体规模都显著增长，细分品类更加多元：既包括满足各类型日常理财需 求的低、中、高风险普通FOF基金，也包括目标风险、目标日期等养老FOF产品。 业内人士表示，公募FOF走过8年，规模增长、品类多元，业绩可圈可点，该类产品发展得益于多方面 因素。未来要提升投研等产品服务能力，长期投资业绩是核心。在多资产配置趋势下，我国FOF发展空 间广阔。 规模增长近9倍 （原标题：8年，增长近9倍！） 【导读】公募FOF获批八周年，规模增长近9倍 8年规模增长近9倍 公募FOF发展前景广阔 中国基金报记者 李树超 自2017年9月8日国内首批产品获批至今，公募FOF已走过8年历程。 大类资产配置理念深入人心 天相投顾数据显示，截至今年二季度末，全市场519只公募FOF管理规模为1650.62亿元，与8年前首批6 只FOF合计166亿元的发行规模相比，增长近9倍。 "中国FOF产品8年来的发展可以概括为：起点很高、充满期待、快速冲高、经历阵痛、投资革新、浴火 重生。"国泰基金多资产配置部负责人曾辉称。 曾辉认为，三方面因素推动了FOF发展初期的快速增长：一是监管部门大力引导；二是头部机构高度重 视和 ...

Core Viewpoint - The public fund of funds (FOF) has experienced significant growth over the past eight years, with its scale increasing nearly ninefold, indicating a promising future for the FOF market in China [2][3][5]. Growth and Development - Since the approval of the first batch of public FOF products in September 2017, the number and scale of these products have significantly increased, with a diverse range of categories including low, medium, and high-risk ordinary FOFs, as well as target risk and target date pension FOFs [3][5]. - As of the second quarter of this year, the total management scale of 519 public FOFs reached 165.06 billion yuan, compared to 16.6 billion yuan for the initial six products, marking a growth of nearly nine times [5]. - The rapid growth of FOFs in the early stages can be attributed to three main factors: strong regulatory support, significant investment from leading institutions, and the favorable market conditions during the A-share bull market from 2019 to 2021 [5][6]. Performance and Returns - The average net value growth rate of public FOFs since inception is 12.3%, with nearly 90% of products achieving positive returns, and the highest performance exceeding 120% [7][8]. - The returns of FOF products are primarily derived from strategic and tactical asset allocation, as well as fund selection, with a growing emphasis on long-term stable performance as a core competitive advantage [10][12]. Future Outlook - The future development of public FOFs is expected to focus on enhancing research and investment capabilities, with a strong emphasis on long-term performance and multi-asset allocation strategies [11][12]. - The expansion of FOFs into new asset classes, including commodities, QDII funds, and public REITs, is anticipated to improve risk diversification and broaden sources of returns [16][18]. - The FOF market in China has significant growth potential, especially as the demand for multi-asset investment solutions and personal pension investments continues to rise [12][30]. Challenges and Recommendations - The development of pension FOFs faces challenges such as slow growth, product homogeneity, and insufficient investor awareness [25][27]. - To enhance the competitiveness and market recognition of pension FOFs, it is recommended to improve product design, increase investor education, and provide tailored asset allocation advice [27][28]. - Learning from international experiences, the industry should focus on optimizing institutional design, extending assessment periods, and enriching asset allocation tools to better meet investor needs [29][30].

Group 1: Fixed Income + Product Performance Tracking - As of September 5, 2025, the total scale of fixed income + funds in the market is 1,785.415 billion, with 1,179 products, of which 94 reached historical net value highs last week [2][18] - The median performance of various fund types for the week (September 1-5, 2025) is as follows: mixed bond type I (0.09%), mixed bond type II (0.05%), and bond type FOF (0.14%) [2][12] - The performance of conservative, stable, and aggressive funds for the week is 0.07%, 0.06%, and 0.05% respectively [2][12] Group 2: Major Asset Allocation and Industry ETF Rotation Strategy Tracking - The macro environment forecast for Q3 2025 indicates an inflation scenario, with the performance of major indices as follows: CSI 300 (-0.81%), national debt total wealth index (0.11%), and AU9999 contract (3.78%) [3][22] - Recommended industry ETFs for September 2025 include: Huafu CSI Artificial Intelligence Industry ETF, Guotai CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF, Guotai CSI All-Share Communication Equipment ETF, and GF CSI Media ETF [3][22] - The combined return for the recommended ETFs last week was -3.04%, with a cumulative return of -3.04% for September [3][22] Group 3: Absolute Return Strategy Performance Tracking - The macro-timing driven stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy had a return of -0.15% last week, with a year-to-date (YTD) return of 3.77% [4] - The small-cap growth style in the stock-bond 20/80 combination showed the best performance with a YTD return of 10.99% [4] - The cumulative return for the small-cap growth combination based on a macro momentum model is 12.48% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the growing importance of "fixed income +" funds in the current market environment, driven by long-term capital inflows and the need for balanced investment strategies amid market volatility [4][15]. Group 1: Market Trends - The stock market has experienced a correction after a continuous rise, leading to investor uncertainty about whether to invest [6]. - Long-term capital sources such as insurance funds, bank wealth management, and pension funds have significantly contributed to the growth of "fixed income +" funds, with a notable increase of 270 billion yuan in the first half of the year [8]. Group 2: Performance of "Fixed Income +" Funds - As of August 31, the median return of "fixed income +" funds reached 3.02%, over four times that of pure bond funds, with more than 95% of products achieving positive returns [7]. - The total market size of "fixed income +" funds has surpassed 2 trillion yuan, indicating strong demand and performance in this category [8]. Group 3: Case Study - 景顺长城 Fund - 景顺长城 Fund has emerged as a leader in the "fixed income +" space, with a management scale of 94 billion yuan and a net growth of 38 billion yuan in the first half of the year [9]. - The fund's strong performance is supported by its fixed income team, which has an average experience of over 10 years, and has consistently ranked at the top in absolute returns across various time frames [10][12]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - 景顺长城 employs a diverse range of strategies within its "fixed income +" product line, focusing on asset allocation, stock selection, and risk management to enhance returns [11][13]. - The fund's investment team leverages their expertise in macroeconomic research, credit bonds, and convertible bonds to optimize portfolio performance [10][12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The rise of "fixed income +" funds is seen as a response to low interest rates and the need for stable returns in a rapidly changing stock market [15]. - The investment value of these products is validated by substantial capital inflows, indicating a strong market demand for balanced risk-return profiles [16].

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Macro Scoring Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model evaluates macroeconomic factors to generate scores for various asset classes, reflecting their relative attractiveness under current macroeconomic conditions [16][18]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The model incorporates global macroeconomic factors such as global monetary conditions, global inflation, and global economic sentiment. - Each factor is scored based on its current trend (e.g., uptrend or downtrend) and its historical relationship with asset performance. - The scores are aggregated to produce a final macro score for each asset class, including equities, commodities, and bonds [16][18]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying asset classes with higher expected returns under specific macroeconomic conditions. For example, it currently favors commodities like copper and gold over equities due to the upward trend in global inflation and monetary easing [16][18]. 2. Model Name: US Equity Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model assesses the timing for US equity investments based on macroeconomic and market-specific indicators [19]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses three sub-indicators: economic sentiment, capital flows, and financial stress. - Each sub-indicator is scored, and the aggregated score determines the model's outlook (e.g., bullish, neutral, or bearish) for US equities [19]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shifted its outlook to "bullish" due to improving economic sentiment and capital flows, suggesting a favorable environment for US equities [19]. 3. Model Name: Gold Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates the timing for gold investments based on fiscal and inflationary conditions [21]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The model incorporates indicators such as fiscal deficit expansion, inflation trends, and central bank policies. - The latest reading of the timing indicator is -0.53, reflecting a cautious signal. However, the model acknowledges potential distortions due to lagging data on fiscal expansion [21]. - **Model Evaluation**: Despite the cautious signal, the model suggests that gold remains a strong investment under the anticipated fiscal deficit expansion and rising inflation [21]. 4. Model Name: Crude Oil Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model predicts crude oil price trends based on macroeconomic and market-specific factors [26]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses a "Crude Oil Sentiment Index," which aggregates factors such as demand, inventory levels, the US dollar index, investor expectations, and macroeconomic risks. - The latest index reading is 0.56, indicating a positive outlook for crude oil prices [26][27]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model maintains a bullish view on crude oil, supported by improving demand and reduced macroeconomic risks [26][27]. --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Macro Scoring Model - **Copper**: When the macro score for copper reaches 4, the next month's annualized return for LME copper is 29% [12][16]. - **Gold**: The model indicates a positive outlook for gold under current macroeconomic conditions, though specific return metrics are not provided [16][18]. 2. US Equity Timing Model - **Outlook**: The model has upgraded its view on US equities to "bullish," supported by improving economic sentiment and capital flows [19]. 3. Gold Timing Model - **Indicator Value**: The latest timing indicator value is -0.53, signaling caution, though the model suggests potential upside due to fiscal and inflationary trends [21]. 4. Crude Oil Timing Model - **Indicator Value**: The Crude Oil Sentiment Index is at 0.56, reflecting a positive outlook for crude oil prices [26][27]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: Global Monetary Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Tracks global monetary policy trends to assess their impact on asset prices [16]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is derived from central bank policy rates, liquidity measures, and monetary easing/tightening cycles. - It is used as an input in the macro scoring model to evaluate the attractiveness of risk assets [16]. 2. Factor Name: Global Inflation Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures global inflationary pressures and their implications for asset performance [16]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor aggregates inflation data from major economies and evaluates its trend (e.g., accelerating or decelerating). - It is used to assess the relative attractiveness of inflation-sensitive assets like commodities [16]. 3. Factor Name: Economic Sentiment Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the overall economic sentiment to predict asset class performance [19]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is based on leading indicators such as PMI data, new orders, and consumer confidence indices. - It is a key input in the US equity timing model [19]. --- Backtesting Results of Factors 1. Global Monetary Factor - **Impact**: The upward trend in this factor supports a positive outlook for risk assets, particularly commodities [16]. 2. Global Inflation Factor - **Impact**: The rising trend in this factor favors inflation-sensitive assets like copper and gold [16]. 3. Economic Sentiment Factor - **Impact**: The improvement in this factor supports a bullish outlook for US equities [19].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of constructing a diversified asset allocation strategy to navigate the volatility of the A-share market, especially as it recently surpassed the 3800-point mark. Investors should prepare for both gains and losses, as the market does not guarantee a one-way upward journey [2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - Despite the current bullish sentiment and many funds reaching historical highs, numerous investors redeemed their holdings before the market's rise. Data shows that from 2022 to 2024, the net subscription scale of equity funds continuously shrank, with significant net redemptions in the first and fourth quarters of 2024 [3][4]. - Many investors did not endure the market downturn alongside their funds, resulting in missed opportunities for recent gains [3]. Group 2: Market Volatility and Challenges - The Shanghai Composite Index has a compound annual growth rate of 11.6% since its inception in 1990, but it also has an annualized volatility of 43.71%, which is significantly higher than many other global indices [7]. - Since 2014, the annual maximum drawdown for the CSI 300 and equity fund indices has exceeded 15% in about 60% of the years, with the ChiNext Index experiencing over 15% drawdowns every year since 2014 [8][9]. Group 3: Timing Strategies and Their Limitations - Investors often wish to time the market to buy low and sell high, but this is frequently counterproductive. Missing just a few of the best-performing days can drastically reduce annualized returns [11][14]. - From 2014 to the present, holding equity funds consistently yields an average annual return of around 15%, but missing the top-performing days can lead to significantly lower or even negative returns [14][16]. Group 4: Asset Allocation Strategies - The article suggests that different asset types have varying risk-return characteristics, and a reasonable asset allocation can help reduce portfolio volatility and alleviate the need for timing the market [20]. - Simulations show that adjusting asset allocations, such as incorporating dividend assets and global indices, can lead to smoother net value curves and reduced drawdowns during market declines [24][26][30]. - A final portfolio that includes a mix of equity funds, dividend indices, global indices, gold, and bonds demonstrates significantly improved performance and reduced volatility compared to a portfolio solely invested in equity funds [33][35]. Group 5: Importance of Diversification - The article highlights that diversification in asset allocation is crucial for investors, as it provides the necessary resilience to endure market downturns and ultimately benefit from long-term gains [36]. - The concept of diversification as a "free lunch" in investing is supported by notable figures in finance, emphasizing the need for a well-rounded investment approach [37].

Core Viewpoint - The overall macro analysis indicates a bullish outlook for equity and bond assets, while industrial products are viewed negatively. Gold assets are also favored due to positive macro conditions [1][7]. Macro Analysis - Equity assets are supported by favorable macro conditions, with a positive trend and moderate valuation, indicating capital inflow [2][23]. - Bond assets are also favored on the macro level, although they show a downward trend [2][23]. - Industrial products face negative macro conditions, despite a rising price trend [2][23]. - Gold assets benefit from positive macro conditions and an upward price trend [2][23]. Technical Analysis - The latest trend indicators show upward trends for equity, industrial products, and gold, while bond prices are trending down [12][13]. - The equity risk premium (ERP) is at 52.65%, indicating a moderate valuation level for equity assets [16][17]. Asset Performance Tracking - The fixed ratio combined with macro and technical indicators yielded a return of 2.64% as of August 2025, with an annualized return of 11.96% since April 2006 [3][28]. - The volatility-controlled and risk parity combinations achieved returns of 3.50% and 0.79%, respectively, with annualized returns of 9.50% and 9.63% since April 2006 [30][29]. Summary of Indicators - The macro and technical indicators for various asset classes show a low correlation, averaging around 0.17, suggesting that both should be considered in asset evaluation [21][22]. - The total scores for asset classes indicate a bullish stance on equities and gold, while industrial products are viewed negatively [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - The low interest rate environment poses challenges for traditional investment products, prompting investors to seek alternatives that balance safety, liquidity, and returns [5][6][7]. Group 1: Low Interest Rate Environment - Major banks have collectively lowered deposit rates, with one-year fixed deposit rates dropping below 1%, leading to a search for "deposit alternatives" among investors [5][6]. - The low interest rate trend is expected to persist, affecting the returns of traditional stable products like bank deposits and money market funds [6][7]. - Investors are advised to diversify their asset allocation to balance risk and return, utilizing strategies like "fixed income plus" to enhance yields [6][9]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - A diversified strategy is essential, focusing on high-quality credit bonds and interest rate bonds as core assets, complemented by equities and convertible bonds for yield enhancement [6][9]. - Investors should consider low-volatility fixed income products, which typically have a maximum drawdown of less than 2%, making them suitable for short-term idle funds [7][8]. - The use of AI and quantitative tools is recommended to improve risk management and enhance investment flexibility in a low interest rate environment [6][9]. Group 3: Asset Allocation - In an "asset scarcity" environment, investors should prioritize safety, yield, and liquidity through diversified and dynamic asset allocation [9][10]. - A balanced portfolio should include stocks, bonds, and commodities, utilizing strategies like risk parity and dynamic balancing to optimize risk-return profiles [9][10]. - High-quality, stable dividend-paying stocks are attractive in a low interest rate environment, while growth stocks should be selectively included for potential higher returns [10][11]. Group 4: Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is currently experiencing increased volatility, with a need for investors to balance safety margins and yield flexibility [11][17]. - The outlook for the bond market is neutral, with short-term assets showing higher certainty and long-term assets gradually revealing comparative advantages [17]. - Credit risk in the bond market is expected to decrease, providing opportunities for investment in high-rated credit bonds [11][17].

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Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a comprehensive investment framework that integrates macro, meso, and micro perspectives to identify potential investment opportunities and risks in the current economic environment [2][11]. Macro Analysis - Macro factors can be broken down into three key elements: growth, inflation, and monetary & fiscal policies, with indicators such as PMI, PPI & CPI, and M1 being crucial for observation [3]. - The macroeconomic cycle can be predicted by analyzing these indicators, with specific attention to the experience of past downturns and recoveries [3][4]. - The expectation of mean reversion in macro indicators like PMI and PPI is highlighted as a reliable investment strategy, especially in the context of the current economic conditions [4]. Meso Industry Analysis - Investment should focus on industries in an upward phase of the economic cycle, particularly those with oligopolistic or monopolistic competition structures [5]. - The selection of leading companies within these industries should be based on their market share, profitability, and competitive advantages [5]. - Industry cycles can be assessed using various cycles, with a focus on the utilization rates of production capacity and inventory cycles to determine optimal entry points for investment [6][7]. Micro Financial Analysis - Key financial metrics for evaluating companies include a solid balance sheet with a Debt/Equity Ratio below 70%, a profit and cash flow alignment, and a sustainable payout ratio of over 30% [8][10]. - The importance of free cash flow generation and reasonable valuation multiples (e.g., below 10x P/E or 10x market cap/free cash flow) is emphasized for long-term investment success [9]. - Companies that maintain a consistent dividend payout ratio while reinvesting retained earnings for growth are seen as ideal candidates for investment [10].