智通财经APP获悉，交银国际发布研报称，2025年全球经济韧性普遍超出年初预期，AI科技周期未完待 续，政策保持连贯性。展望2026年，全球经济宏观环境向有序回归，经济增长一定程度上具韧性，利率 或维持限制性水平。在增长韧性、通胀、利率均偏高的环境下，资产配置的核心逻辑向攻守平衡转换。 美债方面，利率中枢"易升难降"格局难改，关注重点仍是长端利率因通胀、财政、政策不确定性而承 压，收益率曲线或趋陡峭化。 交银国际主要观点如下： 港股盈利可期，"慢牛"延续。估值处于合理区间，性价比突出;流动性环境持续改善，南向资金和海外 资金回流;中国经济的结构性亮点(AI 科技、反内卷、内需修复)预计将开始在盈利层面兑现。 美股方面，"泡沫"短期难证伪，风格待转换。科技巨头受益于AI革命和资本支出扩张的科技龙头企 业，凭借强劲的盈利增长和技术壁垒，仍具备估值支撑，但需警惕投资放缓和信贷风险;此外，美股大 小盘分化有望收窄，小盘股和周期股或将迎来补涨机会。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a disparity between perceived market performance and actual investor returns, indicating that many investors are experiencing negative returns despite a general market uptrend [1] - The trading data shows that the peak trading volume occurred in the third quarter, reaching 138 trillion yuan, which is close to the total of 160 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, suggesting that significant capital entered the market during high heat periods [1] - The consumer sector has shown negative growth throughout the year, emphasizing the harsh reality that following market trends often leads to losses for investors [1] Group 2 - A shift from "bull-bear thinking" to "rhythm thinking" is necessary, as the market is characterized by rapid rotation of hot stocks and volatile trading patterns [2] - The proposed strategy of "dividends as a shield, technology as a spear" has been validated, indicating that while holding dividend funds is stable, it lacks sufficient elasticity compared to technology stocks, which are more volatile [3] - The China Securities Dividend Quality ETF (159209) has demonstrated unique advantages, with a dividend yield of 3.88% providing downside protection and a return on equity (ROE) of 23.55% offering upside potential [3] Group 3 - Looking ahead to 2026, the rotation between dividends and technology will remain a key market theme, with the China Securities Dividend Quality ETF recommended as a core holding for balancing defensive and offensive strategies [5] - The current market has entered a phase of differentiation, making broad market rallies unlikely, thus necessitating more refined allocation strategies [5] - In this structural market, selecting the right tools is more important than timing, and balanced allocation is more prudent than taking excessive risks [5]

截至2025年12月8日 10:56，中证A500指数(000510)上涨0.88%，成分股天孚通信(300394)上涨18.67%， 迈为股份(300751)上涨16.69%，罗博特科(300757)上涨10.64%，航天发展(000547)上涨9.04%，烽火通信 (600498)上涨8.66%。A500ETF基金(512050)上涨0.86%， 冲击3连涨。最新价报1.17元。 光大证券认为，市场大方向或仍处在牛市中，不过短期或进入宽幅震荡阶段。与往年牛市相比，当前指 数仍然有相当大的上涨空间，但是在国家对于"慢牛"的政策指引之下，牛市持续的时间或许要比涨幅更 加重要。不过短期来看，市场可能缺乏强力催化，叠加年末部分投资者在行为上可能趋于稳健，股市短 期或以震荡蓄势为主。配置方面，短期关注防御及消费板块，中期继续关注TMT和先进制造板块。 A500ETF基金紧密跟踪中证A500指数，中证A500指数从各行业选取市值较大、流动性较好的500只证券 作为指数样本，以反映各行业最具代表性上市公司证券的整体表现。 数据显示，截至2025年11月28日，中证A500指数(000510)前十大权重股分别为宁德时代( ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the market is experiencing a bullish trend, although it may enter a phase of wide fluctuations in the short term. The current index has significant room for growth compared to previous bull markets, but the duration of the bull market may be more critical than the magnitude of the increase due to government policies promoting a "slow bull" market [2] - The report highlights the attractiveness of fixed-income assets in a low-interest-rate environment, suggesting that the 10-year government bond ETF offers a favorable risk-reward ratio for investors [3] - The report notes that the A-share market is showing signs of recovery, with a focus on defensive and consumer sectors in the short term, while TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors are recommended for medium-term investment [4] Market Data Summary - The A-share market indices showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3902.81, up 0.70%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 13147.68, up 1.08% [8] - The report indicates a slight net inflow into stock ETFs, with small and mid-cap theme ETFs being the main contributors to this inflow [4] - The report also mentions that the issuance of credit bonds increased by 16.86% month-on-month, with a total issuance of 13153.34 billion yuan in November 2025 [7] Industry Research Summary - The report categorizes the electric power equipment and new energy sector into high-growth segments (such as AIDC power supplies, solid-state batteries, hydrogen ammonia, and energy storage) and "anti-involution" segments (including lithium batteries, wind power, and photovoltaics), each presenting unique investment opportunities [12] - The chemical industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability due to macroeconomic improvements and supply-side policy advancements, with a focus on sectors like phosphate chemicals, potassium fertilizers, and lithium battery materials [14] - The report emphasizes the investment potential in the hydrogen ammonia and energy storage sectors, particularly in the context of domestic bidding and overseas opportunities [15]

查看完整报告 点击注册小程序 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周A股市场出现回暖 受市场风险偏好抬升影响，本周A股市场出现上涨。受市场情绪好转、风险偏好抬升影响，本周A股市场 出现上涨，主要宽基指数大多上涨。在主要宽基指数中，创业板指表现最好，涨跌幅为1.9%，而科创50表 现最差，涨跌幅为-0.1%。目前万得全A估值处于2010年以来85.7%分位数。 行业方面，有色金属、通信、国防军工表现相对较好。分行业来看，本周申万一级行业涨跌互现。有色金 属、通信、国防军工等行业表现相对较好，涨跌幅分别达到了5.3%、3.7%、2.8%。相比之下，传媒、房 地产、美容护理等行业表现相对靠后，涨跌幅分别达到了-3.9%、-2.2%、-2.0%。 本周重要事件 经济数据方面，国内11月PMI数据公 ...

【导读】私募高仓位迎年末行情，策略偏向均衡与"高低切" A股已进入今年最后一个月的收官交易期，近期A股市场的震荡调整并未引发私募担忧，不少私募仍保 持高仓位水平。私募排排网数据显示，截至2025年11月21日，股票私募仓位达82.97%，较前一周上升 1.84个百分点，再次刷新年内新高，同时创下近185周新高。 从操作策略看，均衡布局与"高低切"成为私募调仓的关键词。展望2026年，受访私募普遍将企业盈利的 边际改善视为市场核心驱动力，认为A股"慢牛"基础仍在，市场风格有望转向价值与成长更为均衡的格 局。 私募保持高仓位运行 私募排排网最新数据显示，截至2025年11月21日，股票私募仓位达82.97%，较前一周上升1.84个百分 点，不仅刷新年内高点，更是创下近185周的新高。 仓位分布进一步显现了私募的进攻姿态。满仓私募占比已攀升至68.99%；而中等仓位、低仓及空仓私 募比例均有明显下降，分别为18.56%、8.56%和3.89%。这一结构变化显示，更多股票私募机构正倾向 于继续加仓，进一步强化了对后市看好的共识。 相聚资本的投资组合构建体现了"攻守兼备"的思路。其当前持仓大致分为两类：一类是处于周期与 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that private equity funds are maintaining high positions as they approach the end of the year, with a focus on balanced strategies and "high-low cuts" in their portfolio adjustments [2][6] - As of November 21, 2025, the stock private equity position reached 82.97%, an increase of 1.84 percentage points from the previous week, marking a new high for the year and the highest level in nearly 185 weeks [4] - The distribution of positions indicates an aggressive stance among private equity funds, with the proportion of fully invested funds rising to 68.99%, while medium, low, and empty positions have significantly decreased [4] Group 2 - Private equity firms are adopting a balanced approach in their year-end strategies, focusing on high-growth industries and sectors with improved supply-demand relationships, emphasizing fundamental research and valuation matching [7] - The investment strategy of companies like Xiangshi Investment and Chongyang Investment reflects a shift towards "high-low cuts," seeking stocks with dividends and long-term growth potential while avoiding speculative stocks detached from fundamentals [8] - Companies are optimistic about the A-share market for 2026, with expectations of economic recovery and gradual improvement in corporate earnings, which are seen as core drivers for market performance [10] Group 3 - Specific sectors expected to perform well include AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, machinery, and military industries, as well as traditional industries with improved supply-demand dynamics [10] - The article highlights that the copper market is anticipated to have a strong performance in the first half of the year, while the chemical industry is expected to present investment opportunities in the second half [11] - Concerns regarding market risks include changes in global liquidity expectations, potential bubbles in high-valuation sectors, and inflation issues abroad, with oil price fluctuations and U.S. monetary policy being key factors to monitor [11]

Market Overview - A-share market showed signs of recovery this week, driven by improved market sentiment and increased risk appetite, with major indices mostly rising. The ChiNext Index performed the best with a gain of 1.9%, while the STAR 50 Index was the worst performer with a decline of 0.1% [1][7]. Valuation and Sector Performance - The valuation of the Wind All A Index is currently at the 85.7 percentile since 2010. In terms of sector performance, non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, and defense industries performed relatively well, with gains of 5.3%, 3.7%, and 2.8% respectively. In contrast, media, real estate, and beauty care sectors lagged behind, with declines of 3.9%, 2.2%, and 2.0% respectively [2][8]. Important Events - The establishment of the Commercial Space Administration by the National Space Administration marks a significant step for China's commercial space industry. Additionally, U.S. President Trump indicated he might announce the new Federal Reserve Chair nominee in early 2026. Economic data released includes China's November PMI at 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and a surprising decrease of 32,000 in U.S. private sector employment according to the ADP report, reinforcing expectations for further Fed rate cuts [3][9]. Market Trends and Outlook - The market is still in a bull phase, but may experience wide fluctuations in the short term. The recent ADP employment data has heightened expectations for a Fed rate cut in December, contributing to a global market recovery that positively impacts A-shares. As the Central Economic Work Conference approaches, investor expectations for policy support are rising, aiding market recovery. However, the market may lack strong catalysts in the short term, leading to a focus on defensive and consumer sectors, while TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors are expected to be key areas of interest in the medium term [4][10][11].

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） A股平均3-5年会有一轮小的牛熊市，可 能达到3点几星级别，例如2018年初、 2021年初;平均7-10年会有一轮大的牛 市，有可能会达到1星、2星级别，例如 2007年、2015年。 这个更符合一般投资者说的牛市。 也有朋友问，现在是慢牛吗? 慢牛也没有标准的定义。 我们以A股中证全指为例，从2004年底 1000点起步，到2025年11月底，大约在 5700点上下，年化在8%-9%上下，加上 分红在7600点上下，年化在10%上下。 这是经历了多轮牛熊市之后，A股的长期 平均年化。 ,土杯工川町区示中物,以别十九也 在8%上下。 假设长期年化是10%，平均到一个月就 是0.8%上下的涨幅。如果一个月平均上 涨2%,一年对应上涨26%，会远远超过 所有主流经济体股票市场长期收益。 其实没有哪个国家的股票市场，能长期 保持每月2%的上涨速度。 A股的牛市很少是慢牛体现。 通常是闪电般快牛，之后一段时间震荡 或者阴跌。 例如最近一年的上涨，主要出现在2024 年9月下旬，以及2025年8-9月的少数交 易日，真正大涨的交易日，占全部交易 日的7%。 例如2024年9月， ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the adjustment of the risk factor for insurance companies from 0.3 to 0.27, which releases more funds into the market, potentially increasing liquidity in the A-share market [1] - Experts estimate that over 100 billion yuan will flow into the market due to this adjustment, although this amount may not significantly impact the large scale of the A-share market [1] - The adjustment targets core assets such as the CSI 300 index and the CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 index, which are expected to stabilize the market and promote a gradual bull market over time [1] Group 2 - The timing of this adjustment is seen as a response to declining market confidence and shrinking transaction volumes, as well as negative sentiment from significant shareholder reductions [3] - The adjustment is viewed as a measure to boost market confidence and stabilize the index around 3900 points in the short term, with a focus on increasing transaction volumes [3] - The current market situation indicates that while the index may improve, there are still underlying adjustments needed, emphasizing the importance of managing positions to seize opportunities and mitigate risks [3]