Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that lithium carbonate futures have risen significantly due to supply contraction expectations, despite some improvements in the market fundamentals [1][2][3] - As of August 18, the main contract LC2511 reached a peak of 90,100 yuan/ton, closing at 89,240 yuan/ton, marking a 4.67% increase [1] - Analysts highlight that the upcoming traditional peak season raises questions about supply and demand improvements in the lithium carbonate industry [1][2] Group 2 - Weekly lithium carbonate production reached approximately 20,000 tons as of August 14, an increase of 424 tons from the previous week, driven by higher lithium spodumene processing rates [2] - Despite the shutdown of the Jiangxia Wokeng mine by CATL, the impact on lithium carbonate production is expected to be minimal in the short term [2] - Current weekly inventory of lithium carbonate is 142,300 tons, showing a slight decrease of 162 tons, primarily from smelting plants, indicating a trend of "increased production and inventory reduction" as the peak season approaches [2] Group 3 - The price of lithium spodumene has also increased, with some Australian mine auction prices exceeding $1,000/ton, providing strong support for lithium carbonate futures [3] - However, there has been a noticeable decline in new energy vehicle sales since July, with July's domestic sales at 1.037 million units, down 7.8% month-on-month, which could pressure lithium carbonate prices if demand growth slows [3] - Short-term outlook suggests that supply disturbances remain, but demand support from the peak season may keep lithium carbonate prices stable [3] Group 4 - In the medium to long term, sustained high prices of lithium carbonate may incentivize high-cost mines and smelting operations to resume production, potentially increasing supply elasticity and altering the current tight balance [4] - Market sentiment driven by news may have a greater impact than actual changes in fundamentals, with improvements in the lithium salt supply-demand balance relying on substantial reductions in mining output [4] - The production situation in regions like Qinghai and Jiangxi remains uncertain, which could lead to price increases, but the arrival of overseas resources may alleviate domestic supply shortages [4]

Group 1 - The lithium carbonate futures market experienced a significant increase, with the main contract closing up 4.67% at 89,240 yuan/ton, reaching a peak of over 90,000 yuan/ton, marking a new high [1][3] - The spot market mirrored this trend, with battery-grade lithium carbonate index prices rising to 84,794 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,069 yuan/ton from the previous working day [1][3] - Concerns over supply disruptions due to regulatory issues affecting lithium salt production in Qinghai and uncertainties in production from Jiangxi have heightened market anxiety [3][4] Group 2 - The average lithium oxide grade in Jiangxi's lithium mica mines is only 0.2%-0.5%, while the new mineral resources law requires a grade of 20.4% for independent registration as lithium mines, leading to potential production halts [4] - Eight mining companies in Yichun are required to complete resource verification reports by September 30, with risks of production stoppages until mining rights are officially changed to lithium mines [4] - Despite high inventory levels, there are signs of a marginal shift in supply-demand dynamics, with weekly supply slightly increasing and downstream retail sales rising, indicating a potential recovery in market sentiment [5][6] Group 3 - The market remains cautious due to the ongoing approval processes for mining rights in Yichun, which could increase compliance costs and affect price stability [6] - Current lithium resource production halts have not significantly altered the overall supply-demand surplus, and refineries still hold 1-2 months of raw material inventory, limiting short-term supply impacts [6] - The trading logic in the lithium carbonate market has shifted towards macro narratives and expectations surrounding mining rights events, with a focus on the critical deadline at the end of September [6]

格隆汇8月12日｜据一财，上海有色网分析师周致丞表示，9月30日前8家涉锂矿山企业提交储量报告的 难度不容小觑。根据市场观点，缺乏齐全资料的涉事矿山企业需要进行重新勘探与钻探，流程较长必然 导致报告提交逾期；而提交后的审核周期与严格程度更添变数。乐观来看，假设宁德时代枧下窝矿山3 个月后逐步复产，且其他7家矿山未受波及，那么本次风波对碳酸锂供应的总影响约为3万吨~3.5万吨， 对下半年供需平衡影响相对有限；悲观来看，若年底前7家矿山全部因换证停产，叠加宁德时代的影 响，8家矿山波及的锂盐厂月度产出较6~7月高峰期将减少1.5万吨~1.6万吨，约占全国月产量的20%。部 分市场参与者认为面对如此大规模的供应收缩，可能引发市场供需格局的较强调整，碳酸锂价格或将回 升至10万元/吨以上，周致丞分析称。 ...

停产"靴子"落地，让之前纷扰市场的各种"小作文"不攻自破。此后，市场情绪开始发酵。 8月11日，宁德时代在互动平台表示，公司在宜春项目的采矿许可证8月9日到期后已暂停开采作业，正按相关规定尽快办理采矿证延续申请，获得批复后 将尽早恢复生产，该事项对公司整体经营影响不大。 业内人士认为，尽管当前宁德时代枧下窝矿区已确定停产，但该消息已被市场充分计价，停产的实际影响有待进一步观察，投资者应理性看待各类消息。 "宁德时代枧下窝项目停产主要对市场情绪产生扰动，强化了碳酸锂价格的底部支撑。"富宝锂电分析师苏津仪认为，鉴于当前基本面尚未发生根本性逆 转，需警惕市场情绪推升价格后可能出现的理性回调，后续价格走势需观察实际需求与供应的匹配程度。 8月11日，碳酸锂期货午盘收盘全线涨停，主力合约涨8%，报81000元/吨。与此同时，A股锂电池板块大幅高开，天齐锂业、赣锋锂业等个股均涨停。 | | 最新 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂 2508 | 79000 | +6.53% | | 期货 c2508 | | | | 碳酸锂 2509 | 80560 | +7.99% | | 期货 c250 ...

Core Viewpoint - The suspension of lithium mining operations by CATL in Yichun has led to a significant surge in lithium carbonate futures prices and a collective rally in lithium mining stocks, indicating a potential supply shortage in the market [2][4][6]. Industry Impact - On August 11, all lithium carbonate futures contracts hit the daily limit, with the main contract rising by 8% to 81,000 yuan/ton [4]. - The suspension of mining operations is expected to create a supply gap of several thousand tons per month, particularly in the context of a tight supply-demand balance in Q3 [2][8]. - Analysts predict that the supply disruption, combined with the traditional inventory replenishment season, could lead to a significant rebound in lithium prices, positively impacting the overall pricing and profitability of the lithium battery supply chain [2][9]. Company Specifics - CATL announced the suspension of mining operations after the expiration of its mining license on August 9, with plans to expedite the renewal process [6][8]. - The Yichun mining area, which has a lithium-bearing clay resource, has a production capacity of approximately 10,000 tons of lithium carbonate per month, accounting for about 12.5% of domestic production [7][8]. - The overall impact of the suspension on CATL's operations is considered minimal, as the company is working to renew its mining license [6][7]. Market Reactions - Lithium mining stocks in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced significant gains, with companies like Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium seeing stock prices surge by over 20% [2][5]. - Australian lithium stocks also saw substantial increases, with Liontown Resources and Pilbara Minerals rising by over 22% and 17%, respectively [6]. - The market anticipates that if more mines face suspension, the supply shortage could become more pronounced, further driving up lithium prices [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for lithium carbonate is "Bullish" [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices rose again. The closing prices of LC2508 and LC2509 increased by 9.9% and 11.2% respectively. The spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.8%. The prices of lithium hydroxide continued to rise. The short - term price is expected to remain strong, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and the positive spread opportunity between months [2][13]. - The mining end of Ningde Times' Jianxiawo Mining Area is planned to stop production on August 9th with no short - term resumption plan. This will lead to a production loss of about 11% of domestic lithium carbonate, turn the Q3 balance sheet into de - stocking, and narrow the annual balance sheet's inventory accumulation amplitude [4][18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Supply - side Disturbance Materializes, and the Futures Market Rises Again - From August 4th to 8th, lithium salt prices rose. LC2508 and LC2509 closing prices increased by 9.9% and 11.2% respectively. SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot average prices increased by 0.8%. Lithium hydroxide prices continued to rise [2][13]. - In July, Chile exported 23,800 tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, a 40% month - on - month increase and a 9% year - on - year increase. Exports to China were 13,600 tons, a 33% month - on - month increase but a 13% year - on - year decrease. From January to July, the total exports were 149,000 tons, a 6% year - on - year decrease, and exports to China were 96,800 tons, a 17% year - on - year decrease. In July, Chile shipped 10,400 tons of lithium sulfate to China, a 35% month - on - month increase and a 171% year - on - year increase [3][14]. - The mining end of Ningde Times' Jianxiawo Mining Area will stop production on August 9th with no short - term resumption plan. The annual production capacity is 100,000 tons of LCE, and the monthly production of its three supporting lithium salt plants is about 9,000 tons. After the shutdown, the domestic lithium carbonate production loss is about 11% [4][18]. 2. Weekly Industry News Review - Australia is considering setting a price floor to support key mineral projects [20]. - South Korea's POSCO made a $62 million cash offer for the exploration assets of Lithium South Development in Argentina's Hombre Muerto Salar [20]. - A 20,000 - ton/year lithium carbonate project of China Salt Lake went into production and sales on July 31st. The total investment is 2.29 billion yuan, accounting for 17% of the existing lithium carbonate production capacity of China Salt Lake [20]. - In July, Chile's lithium exports to China increased slightly. It exported 13,633 tons of lithium carbonate to China, a 13% year - on - year decrease but a 33% month - on - month increase, expected to arrive at Chinese ports in August - September [21]. - Ningde Times' Jianxiawo Mining Area's mining end will stop production on August 10th with no short - term resumption plan [21]. 3. Key High - frequency Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain 3.1 Resource End: Lithium Concentrate Spot Quotes Rebound - Lithium concentrate spot quotes rebounded [22] 3.2 Lithium Salt: The Futures Market Rebounds Strongly Again - The lithium salt futures market rebounded strongly again [24] 3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Quotes Rise Slightly - The quotes of downstream intermediates rose slightly [37] 3.4 Terminal: China's New Energy Vehicle Inventory Continued to Decline in June - China's new energy vehicle inventory continued to decline in June [43]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in lithium carbonate prices is primarily driven by expectations of production cuts at a major mine in Jiangxi, which has led to market speculation about supply stability [1][2][3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply-demand balance for lithium carbonate is currently relatively stable, but concerns about supply disruptions from the Jiangxi mine are pushing prices higher [2][3]. - As of August 7, weekly lithium carbonate production increased by over 13% to 19,600 tons, while weekly inventory only rose by 692 tons, indicating a slight improvement in downstream demand [2]. - Despite the price increase, some downstream companies are adopting a cautious approach to inventory replenishment due to the rising costs [2][4]. Price Trends and Market Sentiment - Historical data suggests that even if the Jiangxi mine were to stop production, prices might stabilize in the range of 75,000 to 80,000 yuan per ton, supported by strong demand expectations [3]. - The market is currently experiencing upward price pressure due to fears of prolonged production halts and potential regulatory issues at the Jiangxi mine [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that the market's reaction to supply fluctuations may be overblown, and the potential for further price increases could be limited [4]. Future Outlook - The focus will be on the production changes from mica-derived lithium, with concerns about supply shortages potentially leading to increased raw material replenishment by downstream companies [4]. - If lithium carbonate prices remain high, there may be a resurgence in non-mainstream production capabilities, particularly from overseas sources [4]. - Investors are advised to approach market news with caution, as the potential for price increases may be constrained, and excessive speculation could pose risks [4].

8月7日，碳酸锂期货震荡走高，午后涨幅进一步扩大，主力LC2511合约报收72300元/吨，上涨5.36%。 "当前，已临近时间节点，但该矿山的事情仍未有定论，因此盘面容易对此反复博弈。"创元期货分析师 余烁认为，近期波动大多源于信息层面博弈，消息扰动市场情绪，在官方明确公告之前，建议投资者理 性对待。陈婧也认为，在没有官方结论的情况下，市场仍有一定变数，建议投资者谨慎持仓。 业内人士认为，昨日碳酸锂期货上涨的核心原因是江西头部矿山采矿证即将到期的消息传出，以及临近 下游需求端备货旺季，需求端逐步回暖支撑。 富宝锂电分析师苏津仪向期货日报记者表示，当前江西头部矿山因采矿许可证到期续证的消息，虽暂无 官方文件证实，但仍有可能面临短期生产调整，从而引发供应收缩预期。近期，市场情绪或受此扰动， 推动碳酸锂价格中枢上移。 据悉，宜春市自然资源局日前下发相关通知，要求8家矿山编制储量核实报告。兴业期货分析师刘启跃 表示，依据通知，江西涉锂矿山需在9月30日前将矿种变更储量核实报告报送至宜春市自然资源局地质 勘查管理科，如要践行逐级审批机制，四季度相应材料需进一步递交给江西省自然资源厅及国务院自然 资源部，实际取证流程时 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is shifting towards demand - led. The current situation is characterized by over - supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile, and a decrease in lithium spodumene imports. Negative factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline and insufficient willingness to receive goods at the power battery end [8][9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 17,268 tons, a 7.31% week - on - week decrease but higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased week - on - week. The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate increased by 0.37% day - on - week, with a profit of 1,884 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica remained unchanged, with a loss of 6,850 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On August 4th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 2,310 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory decreased by 6.18% week - on - week, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory increased by 7.18% week - on - week, higher than the historical average; other inventories decreased by 2.42% week - on - week, higher than the historical average. The total inventory decreased by 1.00% week - on - week, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 of the market is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [8]. - **Expectation**: In July 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 84,200 physical tons, a 3.27% month - on - month increase. The import volume in July was 18,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 18,500 physical tons, a 2.78% month - on - month increase. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. The CIF price of 6% concentrate has increased day - on - day and is lower than the historical average. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 67,340 - 70,500 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Yesterday's Market Overview**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide showed different degrees of changes. For example, the price of lithium ore decreased by 0.32% - 0.35%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate Market Overview**: Supply - side data shows changes in indicators such as weekly and monthly operating rates, processing costs, and production of lithium carbonate. Demand - side data includes changes in production, inventory, and consumption of lithium - related products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials [18]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over the years. The production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica has also changed. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has decreased year - on - year, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has shown different trends [24]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand balance of lithium ore shows differences in demand, production, import, and export from July 2024 to July 2025 [26]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Import**: The weekly and monthly production, operating rates, and import volumes of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling materials) have changed over time. The production capacity of lithium carbonate has also shown an upward trend [29]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate shows differences in demand, export, import, production, and balance from July 2024 to July 2025 [33]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Export**: The production, operating rates, and export volumes of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization and smelting) have changed over time. The production capacity of lithium hydroxide has also shown an upward trend [36]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide shows differences in demand, export, import, production, and balance from July 2024 to July 2025 [38]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Materials**: The cost and profit of lithium compounds such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and imported lithium carbonate have changed over time. The cost and profit of recycling materials and the purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also show different trends [41][44][47]. 3.7 Inventory - **Inventory of Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The monthly and weekly inventories of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelter, downstream, etc.) have changed over time [49]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price, Production, and Export**: The prices, production, and export volumes of lithium batteries have changed over time. The production and inventory of battery cells and the winning bids of energy storage projects also show different trends [52][55]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The prices, costs, and production volumes of ternary precursors have changed over time. The supply - demand balance shows differences in demand, export, import, production, and balance from July 2024 to July 2025 [58][61]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The prices, costs, and production volumes of ternary materials have changed over time. The processing fees, export, and import volumes also show different trends [64][66]. 3.11 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The prices, costs, and production volumes of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed over time. The monthly operating rates of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium also show different trends [68][71]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicles - **Production, Sales, and Penetration Rate**: The production, sales, export volumes, and sales penetration rates of new energy vehicles have changed over time. The retail - wholesale ratios of hybrid and pure - electric vehicles and the inventory warning and inventory indices of dealers also show different trends [76][77][80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with supply exceeding demand. The downward trend is difficult to reverse due to capacity mismatch [9][12]. - Lithium carbonate 2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 79220 - 81820 [9]. - It is predicted that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [9]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply side: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 18,630 tons, a 2.53% decrease from the previous week, but higher than the historical average. In June 2025, the production was 78,090 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 81,150 tons, a 3.92% increase. The monthly lithium carbonate import volume in June 2025 was 17,698 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,000 tons, a 24.31% increase [8][9]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 94,878.0487804878 tons, a 0.17% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,552 tons, a 1.40% increase. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month [8][9]. - Cost side: The daily - CIF price of 6% concentrate increased, lower than the historical average. The cost of外购 lithium spodumene concentrate was 71,661 yuan/ton, a 4.33% daily increase, with a production profit of 183 yuan/ton. The cost of外购 lithium mica was 77,138 yuan/ton, a 4.21% daily increase, with a production loss of 7,248 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Data**: The futures closing prices of different contracts increased, with the 09 contract rising 5.01%. The basis of different contracts also changed, with the 09 contract's basis decreasing by 24.31%. The prices of upstream lithium minerals, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries showed various trends [14]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate decreased by 0.80%. The daily production cost of lithium spodumene increased by 4.33%, and the monthly processing cost decreased by 2.89%. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in June 2025 was 78,090 tons, and the import volume decreased by 16.31% [17]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly operating rate and production of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate lithium increased. The monthly operating rate and production of ternary materials showed different trends, and the monthly battery loading volume of new energy vehicles increased [17].