Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil may see an upward trend due to concerns about limited inventory growth and potential export increase in August. For soybean oil, the impact of US biodiesel policy has ended, and domestic demand may pick up in August. It is recommended to go long on dips for palm oil and pay attention to the domestic demand recovery for soybean oil [1]. - **Meal and Bean Products**: The US soybean market is under pressure due to the expectation of a bumper harvest and trade uncertainties. Domestic soybean and bean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is oscillating at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see for bean meal [2]. - **Pork**: The spot pork market is weak, with low enthusiasm for secondary fattening, increased slaughter volume, and weak demand. It is expected that the spot price will remain at the bottom, and the near - month contract is under pressure. For the far - month contract, it is not recommended to short blindly, but the impact of hedging funds should be noted [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The corn market is relatively stable in the short term, with limited price increase and decrease. The supply is tight in the third quarter and may be loose in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to policy auctions and the growth of new crops [6]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market has no new drivers, and the overall is bearish. The domestic sugar market has low demand, and the price is under pressure due to the increase in imports. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range high - level oscillation [8]. - **Eggs**: The supply of eggs is sufficient, but the supply of large - sized eggs is tight. The demand may first decrease and then increase this week. The egg price may decline slightly next week but still has an upward space in the spot market, while the futures upside is limited [11]. - **Cotton**: The supply pressure of cotton is increasing marginally, and the demand weakness is weakening marginally. The domestic cotton price may oscillate in the short term and face pressure after the new cotton is on the market [14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On July 28, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8350 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. The futures price of Y2509 was 8226 yuan/ton, up 1.31%. The basis was 144 yuan/ton, down 37.39%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.78% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: On July 29, the spot price in Guangdong was 8920 yuan/ton, down 0.56%. The futures price of P2509 was 8970 yuan/ton, up 0.27%. The basis was - 50 yuan/ton, down 308.33%. The import cost increased by 0.14%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On July 28, the spot price in Jiangsu was 9540 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The futures price of Ol509 was 9492 yuan/ton, up 0.91%. The basis decreased by 26.87%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [1]. Meal and Bean Products - **Bean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures price of M2509 was 2990 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The basis was - 133 yuan/ton, up 5%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 8.9% [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2530 yuan/ton, down 1.17%. The futures price of RM2509 was 2660 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis decreased by 30%. The import profit decreased by 57.84%, and the number of warehouse receipts was 0 [2]. - **Soybean**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3960 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures price of the main contract decreased by 1.68%. The basis increased by 26.89%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.14% [2]. Pork - **Futures**: The price of the 2511 contract was 14125 yuan/ton, down 0.88%. The price of the 2509 contract was 14150 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. The 9 - 11 spread was 25 yuan/ton, up 120%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased [4]. - **Spot**: The prices in Henan, Shandong, Sichuan, and other regions decreased, with the largest decline of 200 yuan/ton in Henan and Shandong [4]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of the 2509 contract was 2302 yuan/ton, down 0.73%. The basis was 48 yuan/ton, up 54.84%. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 6.45%. The import profit decreased by 0.88% [6]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the 2509 contract was 2666 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The basis was 14 yuan/ton, up 566.67%. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 7.89%. The starch - corn spread remained unchanged [6]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract was 5731 yuan/ton, up 0.51%. The price of the 2509 contract was 5867 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The ICE raw sugar price was 16.56 cents/pound, up 0.79%. The 1 - 9 spread increased by 4.9% [8]. - **Spot**: The price in Nanning was 6050 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price in Kunming was 5915 yuan/ton, up 0.6%. The basis in Nanning decreased by 10.73%, and the basis in Kunming increased by 37.14% [8]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract was 3576 yuan/500KG, unchanged. The price of the 08 contract was 3349 yuan/500KG, down 0.33%. The 9 - 8 spread increased by 5.09% [10]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the producing area was 3.20 yuan/jin, down 0.48%. The basis was - 375 yuan/500KG, down 3.55% [10]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract was 13925 yuan/ton, down 1.07%. The price of the 2601 contract was 14025 yuan/ton, down 0.28%. The ICE US cotton price was 67.66 cents/pound, down 0.94%. The 9 - 1 spread was - 110 yuan/ton, unchanged [14]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15431 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The CC Index of 3128B was 15580 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook for each variety, with most being rated as "Oscillating", some as "Oscillating Strongly". For example, steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are in the "Oscillating" category, and the specific ratings are based on the expected price fluctuations within the next 2 - 12 weeks [9][13][14]. 2. Core View of the Report - Overall, there are continuous macro - level positive factors. The continuous rally in the market has spurred mid - stream players such as those in the futures - cash business to build positions, creating a positive feedback loop in the industry chain. Future focus should be on policy implementation and terminal demand performance [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments increased on a week - on - week basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased, which was in line with expectations. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises slightly increased, and the pig iron output of steel enterprises rebounded more than expected, remaining at a high level year - on - year. Iron ore port inventories remained stable, the number of congested ships decreased, and steel mill inventories slightly increased, with total inventories slightly decreasing. With frequent positive news and good fundamentals, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [2]. Carbon Element - The news of coal mine over - production inspections was confirmed to be basically true. The market's expectation of "anti - involution" in the coal industry has deepened. Although some coal mines are resuming production, domestic coal supply is still affected. The Sino - Mongolian border ports have fully resumed customs clearance, and the customs clearance efficiency of Mongolian coal is gradually increasing. Two rounds of coke price increases have been implemented, but coke enterprises' profits are still around the break - even point. Coke supply has tightened, while downstream steel mills have good profits, high production enthusiasm, and are actively replenishing stocks. Coke inventories of coke enterprises are continuously decreasing. It is expected that the short - term futures will oscillate strongly [3]. Alloys Manganese Silicon - With coke entering the price increase cycle, the cost support for manganese silicon is strengthened. The market sentiment is warm, port miners are actively supporting prices, and manganese ore prices are firm. On the supply side, the daily output of manganese silicon has been increasing for 8 consecutive weeks, and manufacturers' profitability has improved significantly. On the demand side, steel mills have good profits, and the downstream demand for manganese silicon remains resilient. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector [3][7]. Silicon Iron - The market sentiment cooled down, and the silicon iron futures price was weak. In the future, the production level of silicon iron is expected to increase, and the downstream steel - making demand remains resilient. The current supply - demand relationship of silicon iron is healthy, and the short - term futures price is expected to follow the sector [7]. Glass - In the off - season, the demand for glass is declining, and the deep - processing demand continues to weaken. Although the sales volume was good at the beginning of the week due to downstream restocking, its sustainability is uncertain. On the supply side, there are still 2 production lines waiting to produce glass, and the daily melting volume is still on the rise. The actual demand is weak, but the policy expectation is strong, and the speculative demand is also strong. In the short term, it is necessary to observe the rhythm and intensity of policy introduction. If policies continue to exceed expectations, there may be a wave of restocking and price increases. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the view of oscillation is maintained [7]. Soda Ash - The long - term oversupply situation of soda ash is difficult to change. In the short term, the "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures price, but it still faces the problem of oversupply after the positive feedback. Currently, the upstream inventory is being transferred, and the delivery warehouses are starting to accumulate inventory [7]. Specific Varieties Steel - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the upward trend of the futures price has slowed down. The expectation of stable growth in key industries such as steel has increased, and the start of a hydropower project has also brought positive expectations. After the continuous rise in the market, the macro - sentiment has cooled, and the spot price increase has slowed. In the off - season, the fundamental contradictions of steel are not obvious. With strong support from furnace materials and lingering macro - sentiment, the futures price is likely to rise and difficult to fall. Future focus should be on policy implementation and off - season demand [9]. Iron Ore - The small - sample pig iron output remained stable, and the ore price slightly decreased. The spot market quotation decreased, and port transactions dropped significantly. Fundamentally, overseas mine shipments increased on a week - on - week basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. The profitability rate of steel enterprises slightly increased, and the small - sample pig iron output of steel enterprises remained stable at a high level year - on - year. Iron ore port inventories remained stable, the number of congested ships decreased, and steel mill inventories slightly increased, with total inventories slightly decreasing. The futures price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but further upward movement requires new driving factors [9]. Scrap Steel - The arrival volume of scrap steel has been low, and the spot price has slightly increased. The fundamentals of scrap steel have deteriorated marginally, but the contradictions are not prominent due to low inventories. On the supply side, the arrival volume this week decreased, and resources are tight. On the demand side, the daily consumption of electric furnaces and full - process steel mills slightly decreased, but the profits of electric furnaces have improved, and the daily consumption of long - process scrap steel has increased significantly. The inventory of scrap steel has slightly increased. The price of scrap steel is expected to follow the sector [10]. Coke - The second - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented, and the upward trend of the futures price has converged. The supply of coke has tightened, while the demand is strong, and the inventory of coke enterprises is continuously decreasing. The supply - demand structure is tight, and there is still an expectation of price increases. In the short term, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [13]. Coking Coal - The market's expectation of "anti - involution" in the coking coal industry is strong, and the upward trend of the futures price continues. The domestic coal supply recovery is slow, and the import volume from Mongolia is high. The demand for coking coal is strong, and the coal mine inventory has decreased significantly. Although the actual impact of over - production inspections on the fundamentals is small, the market sentiment is hyped, and there is still upward space in the short term [13][14]. Glass - The downstream restocking continues, and the spot sales have improved. The demand in the off - season is weak, but the policy expectation is strong, and the speculative demand is also strong. In the short term, it is necessary to observe the policy, and in the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, maintaining an oscillating view [14]. Soda Ash - The upstream inventory is being transferred, and the delivery warehouses are starting to accumulate inventory. The long - term oversupply situation remains, and although there are short - term factors driving up the price, the price is expected to decline in the long term to promote capacity reduction [15][16]. Manganese Silicon - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. The cost is supported, the supply is increasing, and the demand remains resilient. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector, and in the long term, the supply - demand relationship will tend to be loose, and the price will face pressure [17]. Silicon Iron - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the silicon iron futures price has weakened. The production level is expected to increase, and the downstream demand remains resilient. The current supply - demand relationship is healthy. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector, and in the long term, the supply - demand gap will gradually narrow, and the price lacks a continuous upward driving force [18].

Core Insights - The stainless steel market is experiencing price increases, with Wuxi Hongwang's 304 cold-rolled price rising to 12,900 CNY/ton, a daily increase of 100 CNY/ton, and Foshan Hongwang's price also at 12,900 CNY/ton, up by 150 CNY/ton [1] - Nickel ore prices are showing some flexibility, with Philippine 1.3% nickel ore FOB prices dropping to 32-33 USD, while Indonesian nickel ore prices have slightly decreased by 0.03-0.05 USD, maintaining a generally stable trend [2][3] - Domestic stainless steel production is projected to decrease, with an estimated output of 3.2531 million tons in July, down 2.87% month-on-month and 1.67% year-on-year [2] - Social inventory of stainless steel is declining slowly, with Wuxi and Foshan's 300 series social inventory at 525,900 tons, a slight week-on-week increase [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market sentiment is cautiously optimistic despite being in a consumption off-season, with end-user purchases primarily driven by essential restocking [3] - Nickel iron prices remain weak, with recent transactions hitting a new low of 900 CNY/nickel, leading to limited purchasing interest from steel mills due to cost pressures [2][3] - The repair schedule of a stainless steel plant in Guangxi is expected to impact market supply by approximately 80,000 tons over a 25-30 day period [3] Market Outlook - The overall macroeconomic sentiment is positive, with supportive policies expected to be released, particularly in key industries like steel and non-ferrous metals [3] - The stainless steel market is anticipated to experience short-term fluctuations, with a reference trading range of 12,600-13,200 CNY/ton, influenced by policy directions and production cuts from steel mills [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures fluctuated upward with a relatively large increase. Looking ahead, from a macro perspective, the data released last week showed that the US CPI increased year-on-year in June, the PPI was flat month-on-month, and the number of initial jobless claims decreased for the fifth consecutive week, increasing market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September. China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year. Fundamentally, on the supply side, recent weather disturbances in major producing areas have led to a shortage of raw material supply, supporting rubber prices, but there is still a strong expectation of increased supply. Imports increased year-on-year in June. On the demand side, the operating rates of tire enterprises rebounded last week, and finished product inventories remained at a historical high. In the terminal automobile market, automobile production and sales and heavy truck sales improved in June, and continuous consumption stimulus policies in China boosted demand. China's tire exports increased slightly year-on-year in the first half of the year. In terms of inventory, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to decline slightly last week; China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao both increased slightly. In summary, weather disturbances in major producing areas support raw material prices to remain firm, terminal demand has improved, China's macro sentiment is positive, and the commodity market atmosphere has warmed up, driving the rubber market to continue to strengthen. It is expected that the market may maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend in the short term [8][85]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: Last week, the price of the main contract of natural rubber, RU2509, fluctuated between 14,225 - 14,980 yuan/ton, with a relatively large overall increase. As of the close on the afternoon of July 18, 2025, the main contract of natural rubber, RU2509, closed at 14,810 yuan/ton, rising 450 points for the week, a 3.13% increase [6][15]. - **Spot Price**: As of July 18, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state-owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai three smoked sheets (RSS3) was 19,800 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 14,750 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous week. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,290 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton from the previous week [20][22]. - **Basis and Spread**: Taking the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state-owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main contract of natural rubber as the futures reference price, the basis between the two was flat compared with the previous week. As of July 18, 2025, the basis remained at -10 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week. The domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber both increased significantly compared with the previous week [26][29]. Important Market Information - **US Economic Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 7,000 to 221,000 last week, dropping to the lowest level since mid - April, indicating the resilience of the job market. The US CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year in June, the highest since February. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, both lower than market expectations. After the data was released, traders predicted that the Fed would start cutting interest rates in September, with a cumulative nearly two - time rate cut by the end of the year. The US PPI was flat month-on-month in June, and the core PPI was also flat, with the smallest year - on - year increase since the end of 2023. The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in July was 61.8, a five - month high, and the 5 - year inflation expectation was at a five - month low. The Fed's "Beige Book" showed that economic activity increased slightly from late May to early July, but uncertainty remained high [30][31]. - **China's Economic Data**: Foreign institutions collectively raised their GDP growth forecasts for China in 2025. China's GDP in the first half of the year was 66.05 trillion yuan, a 5.3% year - on - year increase. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.8% year-on-year in June, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 4.8%. In the first half of the year, China's total social financing scale increased by 22.83 trillion yuan, and RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan. China's total goods trade import and export value in the first half of the year was 21.79 trillion yuan, a record high for the same period, with exports increasing by 7.2% and imports increasing by 2.3%. The prices of new and second - hand houses in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month in June, but the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. From July 1 - 13, the retail sales of the national passenger car market increased by 7% year-on-year, and the retail sales of the new energy passenger car market increased by 26% year-on-year. In June, China's automobile production and sales increased by 11.4% and 13.8% year-on-year respectively, and heavy truck sales increased by about 29% year-on-year [32][33][34]. Supply - Side Situation - **Natural Rubber Production**: As of May 31, 2025, the production in Thailand's main producing area increased significantly compared with the previous month, and the production in China's and Vietnam's main producing areas increased significantly. The production in Indonesia, Malaysia, and India increased slightly compared with the previous month. The total production of major natural rubber producing countries in May 2025 was 722,700 tons, a 43.05% increase from the previous month [40]. - **Synthetic Rubber Production**: As of June 30, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber production was 703,000 tons, a 3.7% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative production was 4.231 million tons, a 5.4% year - on - year increase [44][48]. - **Import of New Pneumatic Rubber Tires**: As of June 30, 2025, China's import of new pneumatic rubber tires was 9,400 tons, a 3.3% month - on - month increase [52]. Demand - Side Situation - **Tire Enterprise Operating Rates**: As of July 17, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 75.99%, up 3.07% from the previous week, and the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 65.1%, up 0.54% from the previous week [54]. - **Automobile Production and Sales**: As of June 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.7941 million vehicles, a 11.43% year - on - year increase and a 5.5% month - on - month increase; monthly sales were 2.9045 million vehicles, a 13.83% year - on - year increase and an 8.12% month - on - month increase. The monthly sales of heavy trucks were 97,864 vehicles, a 37.14% year - on - year increase and a 10.25% month - on - month increase [57][60][66]. - **Tire Production and Export**: As of June 30, 2025, China's monthly tire outer - tube production was 102.749 million pieces, a 1.1% year - on - year decrease. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 60.31 million pieces, a 2.44% month - on - month decrease [69][74]. Inventory - Side Situation - As of July 18, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 186,640 tons, a decrease of 2,050 tons from the previous week. As of July 13, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.295 million tons, a 0.14% increase. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 797,000 tons, a 0.8% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 498,000 tons, a 0.9% decrease. The total inventory of natural rubber in the bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 636,400 tons, a 0.63% increase [83]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Currently, the global natural rubber supply has entered an increasing period. Recently, major domestic and foreign producing areas have been affected by weather, with firm raw material prices. There are also expectations of production cuts in Hainan and the Leizhou Peninsula in China due to typhoon threats, boosting rubber prices. However, there is still a strong expectation of increased supply. In June 2025, China's total imports of natural and synthetic rubber were 599,000 tons, a 27.2% increase from the same period in 2024 [84]. - **Demand**: Last week, the operating rates of tire enterprises rebounded, and downstream buyers mainly waited and watched while making appropriate replenishments. The finished product inventory of semi - steel tires remained at a historical high. In the terminal automobile market, China's automobile production and sales in June were 2.794 million and 2.904 million vehicles respectively, a 11.4% and 13.8% year - on - year increase. Heavy truck sales increased by 10.25% month - on - month and 37.14% year - on - year in June. China's rubber tire exports in the first half of 2025 were 4.71 million tons, a 4.5% year - on - year increase. Consumption stimulus policies have been continuously introduced in various regions of China [84]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to decline slightly, while China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao both increased slightly [84]. 后市展望 - The price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures fluctuated upward last week with a relatively large increase. Looking ahead, due to weather disturbances in major producing areas supporting raw material prices, improved terminal demand, positive domestic macro sentiment, and a warming commodity market atmosphere, the rubber market is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend in the short term. Key factors to focus on in the future include changes in China's macro sentiment, weather disturbances in major rubber producing areas, changes in terminal demand, the progress of zero - tariff policies, the latest progress of EU anti - dumping investigations, and changes in Sino - US tariffs [85]. Operation Strategy - It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will fluctuate with a slightly stronger trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resistance around 15,000 yuan/ton. In operation, it is recommended to maintain an oscillatory and bullish mindset [9][86].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The short - term trends of various steel - related products are mainly oscillatory, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, profit margins of steel mills, and macro - political and economic situations [2][3][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures rebounded after a decline. Thread demand is short - term stable, production is rising, and inventory depletion is slowing. Hot - rolled coil demand is falling, production remains high, and inventory is slightly accumulating. Blast furnaces still have profits, and hot - metal production is relatively high, alleviating the negative feedback expectation. The downstream industries have problems such as lack of infrastructure recovery sustainability and poor real - estate indicators. The demand expectation is pessimistic, and the production - restriction expectation during the September event supports the futures. It will be mainly oscillatory in the short term [2] Iron Ore - Iron ore futures fell today, and the basis has narrowed recently. The global iron - ore shipment has declined, and there is an expectation of further decline in the future. The domestic arrival volume has decreased but will remain relatively high in the short term, and port inventory has stabilized and increased. Terminal demand in the off - season is as expected, steel mills' profitability is okay, and hot - metal production is high with low willingness to cut production. Geopolitical risks have decreased, and Sino - US trade has shown signs of further relaxation. The fundamentals have little change, and it will be mainly oscillatory in the short term [3] Coke - Coke prices declined during the day. There is an expectation of price increase, but production profits are meager, and daily production is falling from the annual high. Overall inventory has decreased, and traders' purchasing willingness is still low. The carbon - element supply is abundant, and hot - metal production in the off - season has not declined, bringing some optimistic expectations. The futures price has rebounded and is at a premium. It will be mainly oscillatory under inventory pressure [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices declined during the day. Policy may strengthen the control of over - production, affecting production. Coking - coal mine production has been falling, and some mines have reduced production due to environmental inspections. The spot auction market has slightly improved, and terminal inventory has continued to decline. The carbon - element supply is abundant, and hot - metal production in the off - season has not declined, bringing some optimistic expectations. The futures price is at a premium. It will be mainly oscillatory under inventory pressure [6] Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices declined. Due to previous production cuts, inventory has decreased, but weekly production is rising, and inventory is increasing again. The long - term manganese - ore inventory is increasing, and currently, the inventory level is low, increasing the price - holding intention of manganese mines. The spot resources of Comilog oxidized ore are scarce, and the price has slightly increased. It is recommended to try short - selling on rebounds [7] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices declined. Hot - metal production remains above 242. Export demand is about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased, and secondary demand remains high. Supply is decreasing, market transactions are average, and on - balance - sheet inventory is decreasing, but production - end inventory is increasing. Some producers may adopt a trading model to help destock. It is recommended to try short - selling on rebounds [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures companies and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics. It is based on the publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week, and the closing price data is from last Friday, with the weekly change calculated as the change in the closing price from the previous Friday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - **Commodities**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, commodities such as coke, copper, and iron ore had price increases, with coke rising 2.67%, copper rising 2.47%, and iron ore rising 1.92%. Commodities like corn, gold, and palm oil had price decreases, with corn falling 1.04%, gold falling 1.56%, and palm oil falling 1.87%. Crude oil had a significant drop of 12.02% [3]. - **A - shares**: During the same period, the CSI 500 rose 3.98%, the SSE 50 rose 1.27%, and the CSI 300 rose 1.95% [3]. - **Overseas Stocks**: The Nikkei 225 rose 4.55%, the Nasdaq Index rose 4.25%, and the S&P 500 rose 3.44% [3]. - **Bonds**: The 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.64%, the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.30%, and the 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.19% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 1.69%, the US dollar index fell 1.52%, and the US dollar central parity rate fell 0.09% [3]. 3.2大宗商品观点汇总 3.2.1宏观金融板块 - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a low risk - premium rate of the CSI 300, increased issuance of equity - oriented public funds, and sufficient bottom - supporting funds. Bearish factors included short - term difficulty in improving corporate fundamentals, the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, and over - heated market sentiment [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included net liquidity injection by the central bank, weak credit and inflation data, and strong demand for bond allocation. Bearish factors included the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and rising long - term interest rates [4]. 3.2.2能源板块 - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included falling US and Cushing crude oil inventories, reduced Russian exports, and geopolitical tensions. Bearish factors included the decline in geopolitical premiums, expected OPEC production increases, and weak terminal demand [5]. - **Eggs**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included postponed peak - season stocking, approaching stocking season, potential egg - price increases, and reduced supply due to heat. Bearish factors included limited decline in laying - hen inventory, high chick - replenishment volume, high new - production capacity, and postponed downstream stocking [5]. 3.2.3有色板块 - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 5 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, improved risk appetite, and falling global visible inventories. Bearish factors included the substitution effect of recycled copper, weakening downstream procurement, and weakening terminal demand [6]. - **Methanol**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 6 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included limited port - available goods, expected low port inventories, and increased downstream demand. Bearish factors included expected increases in Iranian imports, port inventory accumulation, potential MTO device maintenance, and a loosening supply - demand pattern [6]. 3.2.4贵金属 - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a downward trend in real interest rates, and the strengthening of gold's safe - haven property. Bearish factors included reduced safe - haven demand, capital flowing to risky assets, and technical - level sell - offs [7]. 3.2.5黑色板块 - **Iron Ore**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included increased molten - iron production, expected decline in overseas shipments, and improved macro sentiment. Bearish factors included rising port inventories, increased global shipments, weakening demand for five major steel products, and narrowing basis [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that the steel market in the second half of the year will be influenced by multiple factors, with prices expected to initially decline before rising [1] - Domestic demand for steel is heavily reliant on policy support, with a projected decline in demand for construction steel, although urban renewal may offset some of the decrease [1] - Infrastructure steel demand may improve on a month-on-month basis, but lacks significant growth potential [1] Group 2 - The manufacturing sector is showing weakness in certain areas, requiring support from "two new" policies [1] - Direct exports are expected to remain high, but are unlikely to drive steel prices significantly [1] - Supply-side production is anticipated to fluctuate slightly, with ongoing reductions in crude steel production causing disruptions [1] Group 3 - Iron ore supply pressure is easing, with a projected increase of approximately 13.7 million tons in global iron ore shipments by 2025, while annual foreign ore arrivals are expected to decrease by 15 to 20 million tons year-on-year [1] - Under optimistic assumptions, average molten iron production is expected to be 2.39 million tons per day in Q3, decreasing to 2.28 million tons per day in Q4 [1] - Under pessimistic assumptions, crude steel production may be reduced by 10 to 20 million tons in Q4, leading to significant inventory pressure [1] Group 4 - Recommendations suggest seizing rebound opportunities in undervalued areas while paying attention to the downward pressure from crude steel reduction policies [1] - Risk factors include potential negative impacts from tariffs on exports and strict enforcement of crude steel reduction policies [1] - The demand outlook for coke is not optimistic, with no significant downward expectations for molten iron in the short term, but long-term demand for finished products remains under pressure [1] Group 5 - Coking coal mines are still profitable, but supply pressures persist, with short-term demand for molten iron supported by basic needs [1] - High levels of imports are stable, but price pressures exist, necessitating attention to coal mine safety regulations [1] - The cost of silicon manganese continues to exert pressure, with production control becoming increasingly difficult [1] Group 6 - The difficulty of destocking silicon iron is increasing, with challenges in inventory digestion as steel production declines [1] - The destocking process may accelerate during the peak season, with potential for valuation recovery, although the extent of rebound is limited [1] - Attention is required on production control measures from manufacturers [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report covers a wide range of financial and commodity markets, including macro - strategy, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products. Market conditions are influenced by various factors such as economic data, policy changes, and geopolitical events. For example, the US core PCE data affects gold and stock markets, and policy changes in different countries impact commodity markets [13][21][37]. - Different markets have different outlooks. Some markets are expected to be bullish in the long - term but may face short - term fluctuations, while others are expected to be bearish or remain in a range - bound state [2][21][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US May core PCE price index rose 2.7% year - on - year, exceeding expectations. Inflationary pressure led to a lack of short - term motivation for the Fed to cut interest rates, causing gold prices to decline on Friday. Geopolitical risks did not intensify. Short - term gold prices are expected to be weak with potential for further decline [13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's "Big and Beautiful" bill has entered a short - term deadlock. Although it is expected to pass, the US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term due to the split within the Republican Party and the expected increase in the deficit [15][17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US May core PCE price index growth was higher than expected. The market's risk appetite remains high under the support of the interest - rate cut cycle and upcoming tax - cut bills. However, the current position of US stocks does not fully account for negative factors such as tariff negotiations and economic downturn, so there is a risk of correction [19][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The profits of large - scale industrial enterprises in China declined in May. Treasury bond futures rose as a reaction to the weak stock market. The central bank's support for market liquidity is a key factor for the bullish view, but the market may face short - term fluctuations. Long positions can be held, and buying on dips is recommended [22][24][25]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The profits of industrial enterprises from January to May turned negative, but the stock market has been strong recently. The divergence between the market and fundamentals is increasing. If policies can promote economic recovery, the market will be more stable; otherwise, the sustainability of the market rally will be reduced. It is recommended to allocate evenly among stock indices [26][28][29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - US coal production increased from January to May 2025. Steam coal prices strengthened, with the 5500K coal price remaining stable and low - calorie coal prices rising slightly. High - temperature weather in June improved demand, and supply was slightly affected by safety inspections. It is expected that the demand pressure will ease in July [30][31]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The air - conditioner production orders in July turned negative year - on - year. The iron ore price rebounded slightly this week. Although there is pressure on port inventories in July due to the shipping rush in June, this negative factor has been partially priced in. The overall trend is expected to be range - bound, and steel mill profits may be slightly compressed [32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel plan in 2026. Palm oil production data in Malaysia shows mixed trends, and exports are expected to increase. Palm oil is expected to remain range - bound, and soybean oil is also expected to be range - bound. Attention should be paid to factors such as Indian restocking, US soybean weather, and US biofuel policies [33][34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - A cold front caused frost in the sugar - cane producing areas of southern Brazil. The sugar - cane crushing volume in the first half of June in southern Brazil is expected to decrease by 19.3% year - on - year, and sugar production is expected to decrease by 19.9%. The international sugar market is under supply pressure, but the external market has shown signs of stabilization, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [35][37][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The drought - affected area of US cotton remained at 3% in the week ending June 24. Indian cotton planting area increased slightly. US cotton export contracts declined. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to remain in a low - level range - bound state, and attention should be paid to the USDA's actual planting area report [40][42][43]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills was close to 2.5 million tons last week. The drought - affected area of US soybeans decreased. Imported soybean costs declined, and soybean meal is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The price of US soybeans and soybean meal futures are expected to be supported at certain levels, and attention should be paid to US soybean planting area and inventory reports [44][46]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - South Africa imposed temporary safeguard measures on imported steel flat - rolled products. The production of white goods in July decreased year - on - year. Steel prices rebounded, but the profit margin declined. The steel market may rebound slightly in the short term but faces medium - term pressure [47][49][50]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The growth progress of corn in different regions varies. The spot price of corn is likely to strengthen, but significant price increases may require accelerated inventory depletion. It is recommended to wait and see for old - crop contracts and consider shorting new - crop contracts when the production situation is clearer [52]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between corn starch and tapioca starch narrowed. The substitution effect needs further attention. It is recommended to wait and see due to complex influencing factors [52]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - The national alumina inventory increased slightly. The spot price remained stable, and the weighted index declined slightly. The short - term futures price is expected to be strong due to low inventory and warehouse receipts [53]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - India plans to take measures to address copper supply risks. A new copper project in Canada has released resource data. Short - term macro - expectations are volatile, and the US dollar may continue to weaken. The domestic copper inventory situation is divided. The copper market is expected to be range - bound at a high level, and caution is needed when chasing long positions [55][57]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zhongkuang Resources plans to invest in a lithium salt production project. The short - term lithium price is expected to be slightly bullish. It is recommended to avoid short positions or shift to the LC2511 contract and look for buying opportunities on dips [58][59]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon futures contract rebounded, possibly related to policy news. The supply is expected to be in surplus in July. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and consider positive spreads between contracts [60][61]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A large silicon enterprise in Xinjiang suddenly cut production. The industry's production situation is complex. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and manage positions carefully [62][63]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - GreenMei's products are suitable for low - altitude aircraft power scenarios. Nickel prices rebounded last week. The prices of nickel ore and nickel iron are expected to be weak. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [64][65][66]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The short - term supply and demand of lead are weak, but there is an expectation of strong supply and demand in the long - term. It is recommended to look for buying opportunities on dips and pay attention to positive spreads between contracts [68]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc spread was in contango, and the spot premium continued to decline. The zinc market may rise in the short term but faces a surplus in the medium - term. It is recommended to wait and see, protect existing short positions, and consider positive spreads between contracts [69][70]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EUA carbon price fluctuated last week. The short - term carbon price is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to European weather and geopolitical situations [71][72][73]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ may discuss increasing production in July. The number of US oil rigs decreased. The oil price has returned to near the pre - conflict level, and the risk premium may remain in the third quarter. The oil price is expected to be range - bound [73][74][75]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder increased, but the trading volume was low. The PVC market is expected to be range - bound in the short term [75][76]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle - chip factories' export prices were mostly stable. The industry plans to cut production in July, which will relieve supply pressure. It is recommended to look for opportunities to expand the processing margin [77][78]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong had minor fluctuations. The supply was limited due to enterprise maintenance, and the demand was relatively stable. The futures price rebounded, but the rebound height may be limited [79][80]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp stabilized. The futures price rebounded slightly. The pulp market is expected to be range - bound [81][82]. 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The Antwerp port was severely disrupted by strikes, causing delays for nearly 50 merchant ships. The spot freight rate is showing signs of peaking. The short - term decline of the EC2508 contract is limited, but the return on long positions is also limited [83][84][85].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of coking coal is expected to face resistance due to weak terminal demand despite short - term upward support, and short - selling opportunities on rallies should be monitored [3] - The price of crude oil has dropped significantly. Although the supply - demand situation has improved, geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain variable. It is recommended to operate cautiously and buy put options on crude oil with a light position [5] - The price of copper is expected to remain oscillating strongly in the short term, with the subsequent direction guided by the Fed's policy and the implementation of copper tariffs [10] - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate in the short term and remain bearish in the long - term [12] - It is recommended to operate cautiously on asphalt and go long on the 09 - 12 spread on dips [13] - PP is expected to oscillate at a low level [15] - Plastic is expected to oscillate at a low level in the near term [16] - PVC is expected to oscillate at a low level recently [18] - Soybean oil futures are expected to show a relatively strong oscillation [19] - Soybean meal futures are expected to show an oscillating adjustment [21] - Urea is expected to oscillate and consolidate currently, and the subsequent trend depends on export quotas [22] Summary by Variety Coking Coal - Price movement: Opened and closed higher, rising nearly 5% on the day [3] - Spot price: The mainstream price in the Shanxi market (Jiexiu) was reported at 930 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was 724 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [3] - Fundamentals: Supply decreased due to environmental and safety inspections. Demand was weak. The market sentiment improved, but terminal demand was insufficient. It is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [3] Crude Oil - Geopolitical situation: Tensions in the Middle East have cooled rapidly, alleviating concerns about supply disruptions. However, uncertainties remain, such as the implementation of the cease - fire agreement and US sanctions [4][5] - Fundamentals: Entered the seasonal travel peak, with US crude inventories falling to a low level and OPEC+ production increase falling short of expectations. It is recommended to operate cautiously and buy put options on crude oil with a light position [5] Copper - Price movement: Opened and closed higher, with an upward breakthrough in the price range [10] - Fundamentals: Supply was still increasing, while global copper inventories were being depleted at different rates. Demand was boosted by export but was weak in the terminal market. It is expected to remain oscillating strongly in the short term [10] Lithium Carbonate - Price movement: Opened low and closed high, with an upward - trending price center [11] - Fundamentals: Supply was sufficient, and the price was approaching the cost line. Downstream demand was cautious, but the new energy market sales were good. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and be bearish in the long - term [11][12] Asphalt - Supply: The weekly operating rate increased, and the July production plan increased. Inventories were at a low level [13] - Demand: Downstream operating rates varied, and the national shipment volume increased slightly. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread on dips [13] PP - Operating rate: Both downstream and enterprise operating rates decreased, and the production ratio of standard products declined [14] - Fundamentals: New production capacity was put into operation, and inventory pressure was high. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [14][15] Plastic - Operating rate: The operating rate increased, while the downstream operating rate decreased, and the overall was at a low level [16] - Fundamentals: New production capacity was put into operation, and demand was weak. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [16] PVC - Operating rate: Both upstream and downstream operating rates decreased, and the export situation was complex [17] - Fundamentals: Social inventories increased, and demand was not substantially improved. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [17][18] Soybean Oil - International situation: The weather in the US soybean - producing areas was conducive to production [19] - Domestic situation: The soybean crushing volume was high, and inventories were expected to rise. It is expected to show a relatively strong oscillation [19] Soybean Meal - International situation: The weather in the US was beneficial to soybean growth [20] - Domestic situation: The soybean crushing volume was high, and inventories were accumulating rapidly. It is expected to show an oscillating adjustment [20][21] Urea - Supply: The daily output was stable, and the supply pressure was relieved by exports [22] - Demand: The new order volume decreased, and the support from compound fertilizer factories was limited. It is expected to oscillate and consolidate [22] Market Overview - As of the close on June 27, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Polysilicon rose more than 6%, coking coal rose nearly 5%, and industrial silicon rose more than 4% [7] - In terms of fund flow, funds flowed into contracts such as SHFE copper 2508 and flowed out of contracts such as SHFE gold 2508 [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On June 26, the coke主力合约 closed at 1395.5 yuan/ton, up 1.86% intraday. The spot prices at Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port decreased week-on-week. With the accumulation of positive factors, the market sentiment changed, and the coke futures rebounded at a low level. The market is expected to be in a stalemate in June, and the coking coal supply in July should be monitored [5][33]. - On June 26, the coking coal主力合约 closed at 819.5 points, up 3.60% intraday. The supply of coking coal shrank during the safety month, and the import volume was also restricted. After the coking coal price reached a multi - year low in early June, the contract started to rise. The recovery of Shanxi's production in July should be focused on [6][34]. Summary by Directory Industry News - From April to May 2025, the number of global new shipbuilding orders decreased by 46, and the corrected total tonnage decreased by 63.85% month - on - month. Compared with May 2024, the number decreased by 111, and the corrected total tonnage decreased by 54.71% year - on - year. Chinese shipyards received the most orders, and South Korea ranked second [8]. - On June 26, Mongolia's small TT company held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price of Meng 4 raw coal was 78 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 12 US dollars/ton from June 5. All 102,400 tons were sold at the base price [9]. Spot Market - For coke, the current price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade flat - price coke is 1,220 yuan/ton, down 3.94% week - on - week; Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse price is 1,140 yuan/ton, down 2.56% week - on - week [10]. - For coking coal, the current price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 865 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the price of Australian - produced coal at Jingtang Port is 1,190 yuan/ton, down 1.65% week - on - week; the price of Shanxi - produced coal at Jingtang Port is 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the coke主力合约 was 1,395.5 yuan/ton, up 1.86%, with a trading volume of 22,795 and an open interest of 51,299, an increase of 24 from the previous trading day [13]. - The closing price of the coking coal主力合约 was 819.5 points, up 3.60%, with a trading volume of 870,999 and an open interest of 564,662, an increase of 40,404 from the previous trading day [13]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on coke inventory (including 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port, and total inventory), coking coal inventory (including mine mouth, port, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants), and other related charts such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, and coking plant production [14][21][27]. Market Outlook - The analysis of coke and coking coal is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the short - term rebound of coke futures and the upward trend of coking coal contracts, and suggesting to pay attention to the coking coal supply in July and the production recovery in Shanxi [33][34].