自美联储上周宣布降息后，多个国家央行跟进降息。 9月23日，瑞典央行宣布将政策利率下调25个基点至1.75%。这是瑞典央行年内第四次降息。自2024年5月开启降息周 期后，瑞典央行至今已降息8次，政策利率从4%下调至1.75%。 瑞典央行政策利率走势（2015年至今） 瑞典央行为何降息？ 根据瑞典央行发布的声明，降息是为了进一步支持经济活动并在中期内将通胀稳定在目标水平，如果通胀和经济活动前景 保持不变，预计政策利率将在未来一段时间内保持在这一水平。瑞典央行的利率路径预示，到2028年底将不再降息。 瑞典8月份通胀仍然维持在高位，但剔除能源价格的核心通胀有所下降，接近6月份货币政策报告的预测。瑞典央行认 为，随着企业将商品价格下降，以及瑞典克朗走强，当前的通胀水平将不会长时间持续。此外，政府宣布的减税措施将在 明年暂时减缓通胀，但不会对通胀压力产生实质性影响。 瑞典统计局数据显示，8月消费者物价指数（CPI）同比上涨1.1%，高于7月的0.8%，为连续第六个月上升，达到六个月 来最高水平，与9月4日公布的初步预估一致。但瑞典央行在9月的货币政策报告中，预计全年通胀仅有0.8%，而国内生 产总值（GDP）仅增长 ...

大家好！一起来关注海外央行最新降息消息！ 9月23日，瑞典央行宣布将政策利率下调0.25个百分点，至1.75%。瑞典央行表示，若通胀和经济活动前景保持不变，政策利率预计将在未来一段时间内维 持此水平。 此次瑞典央行降息幅度超出市场预期，此前预测为1.88%。机构调查的22位经济学家中，有9人预测会出现降息，其余经济学家则预测维持利率不变。 瑞典央行指出，全球经济仍受地缘政治紧张局势及其对企业和家庭带来的不确定性影响，但全球增长前景基本保持不变。 瑞典8月通胀率仍处于高位。但剔除能源价格后的通胀略有下降，且接近先前预测水平。政府宣布的减税措施将在明年暂时减缓通胀，但预计不会对通胀 压力产生实质性影响。 瑞典央行副行长Anna Seim对下调政策利率的决定持保留态度，主张维持政策利率不变，并暗示今年晚些时候进一步下调的可能性。她认为，脆弱的供应 侧，加上2026年的扩张性财政政策，意味着通胀可能会出人意料地上行。 瑞典央行给出最新的宏观经济数据预测：预计2025年CPIF通胀为2.6%，预计2026年CPIF通胀为1.0%；预计2025年GDP增速为0.9%，预计2026年GDP增速 为2.7%。 | | 202 ...

9月23日，瑞典央行宣布将政策利率下调0.25个百分点，至1.75%。瑞典央行表示，若通胀和经济活动前景保持不变，政策利率预计将在未来一段时间内维 持此水平。 【导读】瑞典央行降息25个基点至1.75%，降息幅度超市场预期 大家好！一起来关注海外央行最新降息消息！ 瑞典央行副行长Anna Seim对下调政策利率的决定持保留态度，主张维持政策利率不变，并暗示今年晚些时候进一步下调的可能性。她认为，脆弱的供应 侧，加上2026年的扩张性财政政策，意味着通胀可能会出人意料地上行。 瑞典央行给出最新的宏观经济数据预测：预计2025年CPIF通胀为2.6%，预计2026年CPIF通胀为1.0%；预计2025年GDP增速为0.9%，预计2026年GDP增速 为2.7%。 此次瑞典央行降息幅度超出市场预期，此前预测为1.88%。机构调查的22位经济学家中，有9人预测会出现降息，其余经济学家则预测维持利率不变。 瑞典央行指出，全球经济仍受地缘政治紧张局势及其对企业和家庭带来的不确定性影响，但全球增长前景基本保持不变。 瑞典8月通胀率仍处于高位。但剔除能源价格后的通胀略有下降，且接近先前预测水平。政府宣布的减税措施将在明年暂时 ...

此次瑞典央行降息幅度超出市场预期，此前预测为 1.88% 。机构调查的 22 位经济学家中， 有 9 人预测会出现降息，其余经济学家则预测维持利率不变。 【导读】瑞典央行降息 25 个基点至 1.75% ，降息幅度超市场预期 中国基金报记者 晨曦 大家好！一起来关注海外央行最新降息消息！ 9 月 23 日，瑞典央行宣布将政策利率下调 0.25 个百分点，至 1.75% 。 瑞典央行表示，若 通胀和经济活动前景保持不变，政策利率预计将在未来一段时间内维持此水平。 | | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 Q3** | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | СРІ | 2.8 (2.8) | 0.8 (0.7) | 0.9 (1.6) | 2.1 (2.1) | 3.0 | | CPIF | 1.9 (1.9) | 2.6 (2.4) | 1.0 (1.7) | 1.7 (2.0) | 2.7 | | GDP | 0.8 (1.0) | 0.9 (1.2) | 2.7 (2.4) | 2.4 (2.3) | 1.3 | | Unemploy ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For stock index futures, maintain a long - term view of going long on the economy, recommend buying long - term contracts on dips; short - term market shows signs of cooling [2] - For treasury bond futures, be bullish in the short - term as the implied interest rate of ultra - long bonds is attractive; in the medium - to long - term, with rising risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, suggest hedging T and TL contracts on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On September 22, the four major A - share stock indexes adjusted, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.22% to 3828.58, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.67% to 13157.97, the ChiNext Index up 0.55% to 3107.89, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index up 3.38% to 1408.64. Market turnover was 21,425 billion yuan, a decrease of 2,070 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - In terms of industry sectors, electronics (+3.71%), computer (+1.7%), and non - ferrous metals (+0.98%) led the gains; social services (-2.04%), beauty care (-1.36%), and commercial retail (-1.31%) led the losses [1] - From the perspective of market strength, IC>IM>IF>IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2,175/102/3,151 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors' net inflows were - 13, - 137, - 16, and 165 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +193, +88, - 33, and - 249 billion yuan respectively [1] - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 177.08, 146.93, 29.21, and 0.18 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 15.16%, - 13.04%, - 4.14%, and - 0.04% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 14%, 10%, 21%, and 43% respectively [2] (2) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On September 22, most yields of treasury bond futures declined. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of two - year bonds was 1.384, down 2.52 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of five - year bonds was 1.562, down 3.1 bps; the implied interest rate of ten - year bonds was 1.775, down 2.79 bps; the implied interest rate of thirty - year bonds was 2.203, up 0.86 bps [2] - For the current active 2512 contract, the CTD bond of the two - year treasury bond futures was 250012.IB, with a yield change of - 0.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.022, and an IRR of 1.58%; the CTD bond of the five - year treasury bond futures was 250003.IB, with a yield change of - 1 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.048, and an IRR of 1.69%; the CTD bond of the ten - year treasury bond futures was 250018.IB, with a yield change of - 1.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.063, and an IRR of 1.76%; the CTD bond of the thirty - year treasury bond futures was 210005.IB, with a yield change of - 0.12 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.201, and an IRR of 0.82% [3] - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 5,405 billion yuan and withdrew 2,800 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 2,605 billion yuan [3] (3) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [10]

Group 1 - The Argentine stock market surged by 6% following U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bansen's supportive signals amid recent market sell-offs in Argentina [1][3] - Bansen committed to providing "all stabilization options" to Argentine President Javier Milei, including currency swap lines, direct repurchases of local currency, and utilizing the U.S. Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) [1][6] - Following the announcement, the Argentine stock market experienced a peak increase of 7% during trading [3] Group 2 - U.S. support will complement a $20 billion program agreed upon with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which was finalized by Milei in April [6] - The Argentine central bank sold $1.1 billion in three days to support the peso, while sovereign bonds faced significant pressure, marking the worst performance in emerging markets [6] - The Milei administration temporarily suspended export taxes on agricultural products to attract more U.S. dollars, indicating a strategy to reduce the depletion of international reserves [6] Group 3 - The upcoming midterm elections on October 26 represent a significant test for Milei, with rising disapproval ratings and a halved lead over the Peronist opposition party [6] - Concerns about Milei's governance have intensified due to bribery allegations, a recent electoral defeat, and challenges to his budget cuts in popular spending areas like education and healthcare [6][8] - Economic recovery under Milei has shown signs of weakness, with a slight contraction in Q2 and expectations of further decline in Q3, alongside high unemployment rates [8]

Group 1 - Recent economic data shows strong performance, with GDP growth and per capita income exceeding expectations, yet the real estate market remains sluggish [3][5] - The traditional logic that a weak economy relies on real estate for recovery is being challenged, suggesting that the real estate sector's role as an economic stabilizer is diminishing [3][5] - The lack of significant stimulus measures despite positive economic indicators indicates a shift in policy priorities, leading to a redefinition of the real estate market's value [5][7] Group 2 - The current economic recovery does not depend on the real estate market, which raises questions about the necessity of continued stimulus for the sector [5][7] - The changing market sentiment and expectations among homeowners and investors reflect a broader transition towards a more normalized real estate market, moving away from excessive speculation [5][7] - The real estate market is undergoing a "value return," transitioning from being a financial asset to focusing on its fundamental purpose of providing housing [7][8]

Market Performance - On September 19, the four major A-share indices pulled back, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.3% at 3820.09 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.04% at 13070.86 points, the ChiNext Index down 0.16% at 3091 points, and the STAR 50 Index down 1.28% at 1362.65 points. Market turnover was 23,494 billion yuan, a decrease of 8,172 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, coal (+1.97%), non-ferrous metals (+1.19%), and building materials (+1.05%) led the gains, while automobiles (-1.94%), pharmaceuticals and biotechnology (-1.41%), and computers (-1.26%) led the losses [2]. - From the perspective of market strength, IF > IH > IC > IM, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1,909/115/3,403 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of -206, -225, 18, and 414 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +126, +203, -94, and -235 billion yuan respectively [2]. Stock Index Futures Basis and Yield - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 94.39, 65.35, 14.92, and -3.46 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were -21.15%, -15.19%, -5.52%, and 1.98% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 3%, 8%, 19%, and 71% respectively [3]. Trading Strategy - In the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock indices as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips. In the short term, the market shows signs of cooling [3]. Treasury Bond Futures Market Performance - On September 19, the yields of treasury bond futures rose. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.407, up 3.72 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.585, up 4.42 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.796, up 4.55 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 2.2, up 1.97 bps [3]. Cash Bond and Related Data - The current active contract is the 2512 contract. For the two - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250012.IB, with a yield change of +2 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.012, and an IRR of 1.46%; for the five - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250003.IB, with a yield change of +2.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.015, and an IRR of 1.45%; for the ten - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250018.IB, with a yield change of +3.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.013, and an IRR of 1.56%; for the thirty - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of +3.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.306, and an IRR of 0.55% [4]. Capital Situation - In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 3,543 billion yuan and withdrew 2,300 billion yuan, with a net injection of 1,243 billion yuan [4]. Trading Strategy - Short - term is bullish, and the implied interest rate of 2.2 for ultra - long bonds has sufficient cost - effectiveness; in the medium to long term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL on rallies [4]. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial industry [1] Core Views - The fundamentals of the non-bank financial industry show a positive trend with high certainty of recovery in valuations for insurance and brokerage firms [1] Summary by Sections Non-Bank Financial Sub-Industry Performance - In the recent five trading days (September 15-19, 2025), only the diversified financial sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with diversified finance down 0.03%, securities down 3.55%, insurance down 4.80%, and the overall non-bank financial sector down 3.80% [10][11] - Year-to-date performance shows diversified finance up 11.54%, insurance up 5.74%, brokerage up 4.47%, and the overall non-bank financial sector up 5.27%, while the CSI 300 index is up 14.41% [11][12] Securities Sector - Trading volume has significantly increased year-on-year, with the average daily trading volume for September reaching CNY 28,214 billion, up 209.19% year-on-year and 7.65% month-on-month [16] - The margin trading balance as of September 18 was CNY 24,025 billion, up 75.22% year-on-year and 28.85% since the beginning of the year [16] - The average price-to-book (PB) ratio for the securities industry is projected at 1.3x for 2025, with recommendations for leading firms benefiting from active capital market policies, such as CITIC Securities and Dongfang Zhi Tong [21] Insurance Sector - The net profit of listed insurance companies showed a slight increase, with a total net profit of CNY 1,782 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [23] - The new business value (NBV) for life insurance remains high, with significant growth rates reported by major firms, driven by improved value rates due to declining interest rates and increased new premium sales [23] - The insurance sector's valuation is currently at 0.65-0.86 times the 2025E P/EV, which is considered historically low, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [27] Diversified Financial Sector - The trust industry saw its total assets reach CNY 29.56 trillion by the end of 2024, a year-on-year growth of 23.58%, although profits have significantly declined [29] - The futures market experienced a trading volume of 10.59 billion contracts in July, with a transaction value of CNY 71.31 trillion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 48.89% and 36.03% respectively [36] - The report suggests that innovation in risk management will be a key direction for the futures industry moving forward [41] Industry Ranking and Key Company Recommendations - The recommended ranking for the industry is insurance > securities > diversified finance, with key recommendations including China Ping An, New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, CITIC Securities, and Dongfang Zhi Tong [47]

Group 1 - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) will take place in Shanghai, providing a platform for global companies to showcase new products and seek cooperation opportunities [1] - L'Oréal has participated in all seven previous expos and will present its strongest lineup of new products this year, including three Asian debut brands [1] - Evonik will debut at the new materials section of the expo, focusing on innovations in bio-based solutions, energy transformation, and circular economy [3] Group 2 - Medtronic has participated in the expo for seven consecutive years, showcasing its latest innovations in smart medical technology, including six new products this year [4] - Savencia Group views the expo as a strategic platform for collaboration and innovation in the food industry, aiming to grow alongside the Chinese market [5] - The expo will feature a new section for products from the least developed countries, enhancing opportunities for small foreign enterprises to enter the Chinese market [6]