美国作为美元区的管理者，作为国际秩序的主导者（ 霸主/爹味 ）。 现如今，美元体系中充斥着各类天文数字，这些数字已经超出了美国本土经济的体量。这是因为 非美经济体的高增长（收入）需求和资产配置需求（远期/定期的 美元收入），都需要基于美元体量的持续扩张来完成 。 文章来源于：智堡Mikko 本文是笔者基于自身美元体系研究的一些反思，文章更多地是在向内发问，而不是对时下问题的求解， 简言之，我没有答案 。 一些脱离实际的内容纯属本人 YY 虚构，欢迎探讨。 起源 当下的全球经济与货币体系是美式全球化的造物，在摆脱黄金的限制以后，美式全球化运行在 三个关键机制 之上： 美元作为单一的主导货币，美国的需求作为全球经济的增长来源。简言之，美国 生产货币 ，非美 囤积货币 ；美国 出口需求 ，非美 出口供给 。这形成了 巨量的 双边贸易流动 。 得益于金融（银行）的自由度以及纯信用货币的扩张能力，美元体系在 资本流动不受限制 的前提下渗透至全球，美元信贷/存款、美元资产/负债链接起美国与非 美经济体，形成 巨量的双边资本流动 。 随着柏林墙的倒塌与中国入世，美式全球化迎来了巨量适龄劳动人口的涌入，区域内的美元劳动收入向 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant surge in global gold demand, driven by factors such as rising inflation fears, central bank purchases, and a weakening dollar, leading to a shift in gold's role from a safe-haven asset to a new monetary anchor [1][4][5] - In February, North America saw gold ETF inflows of approximately $6.8 billion, marking the largest monthly inflow since July 2020, while Asia, primarily driven by Chinese funds, contributed about $2.3 billion [1] - The New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) has recently delisted several gold futures contracts, which has intensified market volatility and reflects changing trading dynamics [2][3] Group 2 - Over 600 tons of gold (approximately 20 million ounces) have been transported from London to New York since December 2024, indicating a significant shift in gold trading dynamics [3] - Analysts note that the price difference between COMEX futures and London spot gold has created arbitrage opportunities, further enhancing COMEX's influence on gold pricing [3] - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2025 from $3,100 to $3,300 per ounce, citing stronger-than-expected ETF inflows and ongoing central bank demand [4] Group 3 - Concerns over the sustainability of the U.S. dollar system, particularly due to rising U.S. debt levels, are prompting central banks to increase their gold reserves as a risk diversification strategy [5] - The demand for industrial gold is expected to rise by 7% year-on-year in 2024, driven by technological advancements, while investment demand for gold is projected to increase by 25% [6] - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has contributed to a decline in the dollar index, which historically has an inverse relationship with gold prices, further supporting gold's upward trajectory [6]