编 辑丨李莹亮,洪晓文,江佩佩 4月10日，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，标普500指数跌超3%；十年期美债收益率四连升；美元指数连续第三天下跌，触及半年来最低水平。 | < w | 美国国债 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 买入 | 英H | | 10Y 美国国债 | 4.4602 | 4.4582 | | 10YRNOTE.GBM | | | | 1M 美国国债 | 4.3022 | 4.292 | | 1MOBILL.GBM | | | | 2M 美国国债 | 4.3139 | 4.2985 | | 2MOBILL.GBM | | | | 3M 美国国债 | 4.3185 | 4.2947 | | 3MOBILL.GBM | | | | < W | | | 美元指数 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | USDX.FX | | | | | 100.4844 | | 前收 | 100.9372 | 开盘 | | 100.9347 | | -0.4528 - | -0.45% | 菜田 | 100 ...

国际油价连续走低，全球经济是否已步入"衰退交易"？油价会跌至每桶50美元以下吗？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration has exceeded market expectations, leading to significant impacts on the U.S. economy and financial markets, with a potential annual tariff scale reaching $480 billion, covering 60% of U.S. imports [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The new tariffs could push U.S. import tax rates above 20%, marking a century-high level [2]. - Despite a downturn in various economic indicators, U.S. employment remains resilient, with March non-farm payrolls significantly exceeding expectations [2]. - The housing market in the U.S. continues to face challenges, particularly due to a shortage of labor, which is affecting supply [2]. Group 2: Financial Market Reactions - Financial markets have shifted their pricing logic from "inflation risk" to "economic recession," with significant declines in major indices and a drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield [3]. - Recommendations include increasing allocations to U.S. Treasuries and extending duration due to rising recession risks [3]. Group 3: Currency and Commodity Outlook - The U.S. dollar is expected to face downward pressure, potentially challenging the 100 mark, influenced by trade negotiations and liquidity concerns [3]. - Gold prices have seen a pullback post-tariff announcement, but the outlook remains positive as recession risks rise, suggesting a potential increase in allocation after market corrections [4][5]. Group 4: China's Economic Response - China's economy is facing increased external pressures due to the tariffs, with a cumulative 54% increase in tariffs imposed by the U.S. this year [7][9]. - Domestic consumption is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the automotive sector, while the housing market is experiencing localized improvements [8]. - China has announced retaliatory measures, including additional tariffs on U.S. imports and support for domestic demand through macroeconomic policies [9][10]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Strategy - Domestic risk aversion is rising, leading to a decline in risk appetite and a downward trend in A-shares [13]. - The bond market is expected to see lower yields as risk aversion increases, with a potential return of the 10-year government bond yield below 1.7% [13]. - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended for A-shares, focusing on technology, consumer, and dividend-paying stocks, while being cautious of overvalued sectors [14].

Core Views - The uncertainty surrounding tariff developments persists, but the market is accelerating its shift towards recession trading as expectations of a downturn rise. The synchronization of the economic cycles between China and the U.S. may occur sooner than anticipated [1][5] Tariff Policy and Market Impact - The current tariff policy is seen as a negotiation tactic by the U.S., applying extreme pressure on other countries to achieve a 10% tariff increase while potentially allowing for exemptions in certain industries. This strategy may lead to a reduction in actual tariffs imposed by many countries [3] - China's retaliatory tariff measures are expected to drive domestic substitution in high-end manufacturing and consumer sectors, particularly for products heavily reliant on U.S. imports [3][4] Market Sentiment and Investment Strategy - Investors are likely to lower their risk appetite in the short term, maintaining a framework focused on recession expectations. The uncertainty from the broad and high tariffs is expected to increase market volatility [4][6] - The transition from recession expectations to actual recession trading is becoming more probable, with key indicators such as U.S. corporate earnings per share (EPS) showing signs of decline [6][8] Economic Synchronization and Policy Response - The synchronization of economic cycles between China and the U.S. may lead to an earlier implementation of stimulus policies in China, with significant impacts on GDP growth and exports due to increased tariffs [7][8] - The anticipated window for investment opportunities may also arrive sooner, coinciding with external shocks and policy responses [8] Core Asset Investment Outlook - Core assets are expected to gain an advantage as the economic policy cycles align, with a focus on companies exhibiting strong operational resilience and growth potential. The GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) strategy is projected to outperform [9][10] - Short-term investment recommendations include sectors with pricing power and resilience to geopolitical disruptions, such as AI, precision optics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [11][12] Long-term Investment Trends - Long-term focus should be on global manufacturing demand recovery and the trend of Chinese technology going abroad, as geopolitical uncertainties drive countries to invest in energy, defense, and technology sectors [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant market turmoil triggered by the new tariff policies announced by the Trump administration, leading to a historic sell-off in the U.S. stock market and heightened fears of a potential global economic recession [2][4][15]. Market Reaction - U.S. stock indices experienced severe declines, with the Dow Jones dropping 3.5%, S&P 500 nearly 4%, and Nasdaq plummeting close to 5%, while the Russell 2000 index fell 4.5%, entering a bear market [4][9]. - The total market value of the "Tech Seven" companies in the U.S. evaporated by $840 billion (approximately 61,000 million RMB) [2][5]. - The VIX fear index surged over 28%, indicating heightened market anxiety [4]. Sector Performance - Technology and semiconductor stocks faced significant losses, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping 5.64% to its lowest level since January 2024. Major companies like Apple, Meta, and Amazon saw declines of nearly 9%, over 7%, and over 6%, respectively [4][5]. - Chinese concept stocks also experienced a collective downturn, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling over 2% [5]. Economic Outlook - Analysts express growing concerns about a potential recession in the U.S., with Goldman Sachs raising the probability of a recession from 20% to 35% following the tariff announcements [15][16]. - The U.S. Treasury yield fell from 4.2% to 4.05%, reflecting increased recession fears as stock and bond yields began to move in tandem [15]. Central Bank Implications - The new tariffs are expected to complicate the Federal Reserve's decision-making, as they may lead to increased inflation while simultaneously raising recession concerns [22][23]. - Morgan Stanley has revised its expectations for interest rate cuts, delaying the next anticipated cut to March 2026 due to inflation risks associated with the tariffs [24][25]. Global Market Impact - European markets also faced significant declines, with major indices like the DAX and CAC 40 dropping over 3% [9][10]. - Asian markets followed suit, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index falling 2.77% and Vietnam's index plummeting 6.68% [10].

文 ｜ 贾天楚 崔嵘 李翀 韦昕澄 近期黄金价格再创新高，主要是海外市场衰退交易与关税恐慌交易所致。综合通胀、增长、关税、地缘等多个因素来看，当前黄金行情难言结 束。二季度至年中，海外市场或持续出现类滞胀交易的主线，并利好黄金表现，而关税和地缘冲突对黄金的扰动仍未到终点，在不确定性情绪积 聚以及释放以前，上述因素对黄金的驱动难言结束。从资金面看，黄金多头对黄金当前走向的影响程度已经来到历史最高水平，不过交投规模以 及热度并未达到历史"最拥挤"区间，资金仍有进一步加仓的空间。综合当前基本面和资金面数据，我们预计年内黄金行情可能仍未结束。 ▍ 2 0 2 5年3月2 8日，国际金价再创新高，盘中最高价录得3 0 8 6 . 0 4美元/盎司，已经达到并超越了我们此前对于黄金价格的预测区间。 对此我 们点评如下： ▍ 从基本面看，近期黄金行情主要为衰退交易与关税恐慌交易所致。 综合通胀、增长、关税、地缘等多个因素来看，当前黄金价格连续冲 高，但行情难言结束： 从通胀与增长表现来看，"类滞胀"交易或在二季度至年中持续发酵并利好黄金。同时，未来如果美国成功降低通胀，将是美元与黄金共振趋势 结束的重要关键变量。 美国通胀 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious approach towards investment, suggesting a neutral stance on the industry performance relative to the benchmark index [15]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's March FOMC meeting maintained interest rates, signaling a shift in policy focus from inflation to employment, which is interpreted as a dovish signal by the market [1][4]. - The Fed plans to slow down its balance sheet reduction starting in April, decreasing monthly Treasury redemptions from $250 billion to $50 billion, while keeping MBS redemptions unchanged [4][5]. - The Fed's economic growth forecast for Q4 2025 has been downgraded from 2.1% to 1.7%, while the unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.3% to 4.4% [4][6]. - Inflation expectations have been revised upward, with the PCE inflation forecast for Q4 2025 increased from 2.5% to 2.7% and core PCE from 2.5% to 2.8% [4][6]. - The market anticipates a higher likelihood of rate cuts, with futures indicating expectations for three rate cuts this year, despite the Fed's guidance suggesting only two [4][9]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Policy Changes - The Fed's recent policy shift emphasizes employment over inflation, reflecting a more cautious approach to monetary policy [1][4]. - The removal of language indicating a balance of risks between employment and inflation suggests a heightened focus on employment risks [4]. Economic Forecast Adjustments - The Fed has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 while raising inflation expectations, indicating concerns about potential stagflation [4][6]. - The adjustments in forecasts highlight the Fed's ongoing challenges in balancing economic growth and inflation control [4]. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcements, there was a notable increase in both short-term stock and bond markets, reflecting investor optimism about the dovish signals [4][5]. - The market's reaction underscores the sensitivity of investors to changes in Fed policy and economic outlook [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the macroeconomic outlook for China in 2025, highlighting the transition from real estate to strategic emerging industries, with GDP growth expected to stabilize around 5% for the year [1]. Economic Data - In the first two months of 2025, industrial production and service sectors showed rapid growth, although domestic demand remained weak [3]. - Industrial added value growth exceeded market expectations, driven by transportation equipment, metal products, and equipment manufacturing [3]. - Investment growth was significantly above market expectations, particularly in infrastructure, while real estate investment saw a reduced decline [3]. - Consumer spending data slightly fell short of expectations, with overall consumption growth remaining flat compared to December 2024 [3]. Policy Environment - The monetary policy is expected to focus on the broad price system, while fiscal policy will maintain reasonable space to address external challenges and weak domestic demand [1]. - The article anticipates that monetary policy will support consumer demand recovery through both total and structural tools, while fiscal policy will aim for moderate expansion to enhance social security and effective investment [1]. Industry Insights - The article emphasizes the ongoing transformation in China's economic structure, with the share of real estate and its related industries declining from 18% in 2020 to an expected 10%-11% by 2024, while strategic emerging industries are projected to rise from 11.7% to 14.1% in the same period [1]. - The article suggests that the recovery in the outdoor manufacturing sector is likely, with a gradual improvement in order fulfillment and capacity utilization expected throughout 2025 [23]. Geopolitical Factors - The article notes that the geopolitical environment is becoming increasingly complex, with potential impacts on market confidence and economic policies, particularly regarding U.S.-China relations [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - The article recommends focusing on sectors such as education and technology, particularly those leveraging AI and consumer recovery trends, as they are expected to present significant investment opportunities [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The external geopolitical environment in late March is characterized by increasing disturbances, but it does not alter the recovery of market confidence [1][4] Group 1: Market Concerns and Economic Data - Recent market concerns revolve around the accelerating pace of Trump's policies, including tariffs and layoffs, exacerbated by the absence of the "Trump put" [2][3] - Despite the overall stability of current U.S. economic data, increasing uncertainty may lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy of negative expectations [2][3] Group 2: Ideal Policy Pathway - Based on historical patterns during a new president's honeymoon period and midterm election preparations, the ideal policy pathway for Trump involves quickly implementing negative policies while maintaining a high tolerance for pain, followed by a gradual reduction of shocks and the introduction of positive policies like tax cuts [2][3][4] - The ideal pathway's realization depends on several assumptions, and the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies may not dissipate quickly [3][4] Group 3: Trade and Non-Trade Policies - In trade, Trump's administration has initiated the "America First Trade Policy" memorandum, which aims to assess trade relations comprehensively, with conclusions expected by April 1 [5] - In non-trade areas, discussions within Trump's team regarding chip controls against China indicate a strong intent to enhance restrictions, which may impact certain re-exported goods from China [5] Group 4: Additional Hot Topics - The fluctuating nature of Trump's tariff threats has created ongoing market disturbances, with key upcoming dates being April 1 for the trade policy results and April 2 for details on "reciprocal tariffs" [6] - Progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations and Europe's fiscal expansion are also noteworthy, as they may influence the political and economic landscape in the Eurozone [6] - The U.S. Congress has temporarily resolved a government shutdown crisis by passing a short-term spending bill, reflecting ongoing budgetary negotiations and potential resistance to Trump's fiscal policies [7]

文 ｜ 贾天楚 崔嵘 李翀 韦昕澄 ▍ 从大类资产配置的角度看，"类滞胀"环境下相对利好商品市场，全年商品市场排序仍为金＞铜 ＞油。 近期国际油价持续回落并呈现低位震荡走势，我们认为国际油价当前进入底部震荡区间。从商品属 性的角度看，OPEC+小幅释放原油产量，令全球原油供需平衡结构自去年的偏紧逐渐向偏松方向 移动，叠加二季度在衰退交易、关税等不确定性因素影响下，油价整体或仍呈现区间震荡走势。不 过，二季度至年中，我们此前提示的"类滞胀"趋势或逐渐得到验证并利好商品市场，全年商品市场 排序仍为金＞铜＞油。就油市而言，在通胀及经济基本面等因素的带动下，叠加地缘等因素的阶段 性扰动，油价或能企稳并逐渐缓慢小幅回升。 ▍ 近期国际油价持续回落并呈现低位震荡走势，布油收盘价位于约7 0美元/桶左右，我们认为国 际油价当前进入底部震荡区间，中枢或位于6 5 - 7 0美元/桶，年中至下半年在通胀以及经济基本面 等因素的带动下或逐渐缓慢小幅回升。 具体如下： ▍ 从商品属性的角度看，海外衰退交易尚未结束，油价整体或仍呈现区间震荡行情。 当前海外风险资产调整明显，资金更多流入美债、美国货基、非美股票市场 [ 1 ] ，其实 ...