Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, influenced by easing geopolitical tensions and progress in tariff negotiations, which reduced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][3][5]. Market Performance - On Friday, spot gold prices fell by 1.63%, closing at $3,273 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 2.8%. COMEX gold futures also dropped by 1.85%, closing at $3,286 per ounce, marking a second consecutive week of losses [4]. - The lowest point for spot gold during the day was $3,255 per ounce, while COMEX futures hit a low of $3,266.5 per ounce, with intraday declines exceeding 2% [4]. Influencing Factors - The recent ceasefire in the Middle East has diminished the geopolitical risk premium, which traditionally supports gold prices. Analysts suggest that the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is likely to continue decreasing [5][6]. - Despite a five-day decline in the US dollar index, which typically supports commodity prices, gold did not respond positively, indicating a shift in market dynamics [4]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices may still have upward potential in the medium to long term due to several factors: 1. Continued geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and instability in the Middle East, are expected to sustain safe-haven demand for gold [6]. 2. Anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could boost gold prices ahead of policy changes, as lower interest rates reduce the attractiveness of bond investments [6]. 3. Central banks in lower and middle-income countries are likely to increase their gold reserves, narrowing the gap with higher-income countries [6]. 4. The high deficit and debt levels in the US are projected to maintain upward pressure on long-term gold prices [6]. Tariff Negotiations - Progress in tariff negotiations has been reported, with EU leaders expressing optimism about reaching an agreement to avoid further economic damage. This development is seen as a factor that could influence market risk appetite and, consequently, gold prices [8][9].

Group 1 - The core CPI for May increased by 2.8% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.9%, while the total CPI rose by 2.4%, also below the forecast of 2.5% [2][3] - The month-on-month CPI rose only 0.1%, compared to the expected 0.2%, indicating a cooling inflation trend [2][3] - The market's expectation for two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year increased to 72% following the CPI data release [2][5] Group 2 - Significant declines in commodity prices were observed, including new cars (-0.3%), used cars (-0.5%), and furniture (-0.8%), suggesting easing supply chain pressures [4] - Energy prices notably impacted the CPI, with gasoline prices dropping by 1.2%, offsetting a 0.3% increase in food prices [5] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicated that the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September rose from 18% to 31% after the CPI announcement [5] Group 3 - Following the CPI release, gold prices surged, with spot gold reaching $3,376.3 per ounce, driven by both safe-haven demand and expectations of rate cuts [2][7] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 5 basis points to 4.38%, reflecting growing concerns about an economic recession [2][8] - The manufacturing sector continues to show signs of contraction, with the ISM manufacturing PMI remaining below 50 for the tenth consecutive month [10] Group 4 - The impact of tariffs is a concern, as the May CPI did not reflect the effects of the 25% auto tariffs, but the EU's retaliatory tariffs effective June 1 could raise inflation in Q3 [11] - Geopolitical risks, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, are contributing to increased demand for gold as a safe haven [7][12] - The market is advised to monitor the potential for a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario if progress is made in the upcoming Middle East peace conference [12]

Group 1 - Silver has recently entered a rebound phase, attracting market attention, with its price lagging behind gold by 5 percentage points year-to-date as of June 9, 2025 [1] - The increase in silver prices is attributed to a tightening supply-demand dynamic, with industrial demand rising while supply remains stagnant, leading to a supply gap of 148.9 million ounces in 2024 [2] - The global risk aversion sentiment has decreased, contributing to the recent rise in silver prices, as the market shifts from a "recession trade" to a "stagflation trade" [3] Group 2 - Financial market trends indicate a strong bullish sentiment towards silver, with significant increases in holdings in the largest silver ETF, SLV, and rising speculative positions [4] - The historical gold-silver ratio suggests that there is still room for downward correction, with the current ratio at 92, indicating potential for silver price increases if the macroeconomic environment shifts favorably [4] - Technical analysis shows that silver has broken through significant resistance levels, with current trends indicating a bullish outlook supported by various factors including supply-demand tightness and inflows of speculative capital [5]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index surged by 3.3% on May 12, with the Nasdaq 100 returning to a technical bull market, while the dollar index rose over 1%, marking its largest single-day gain since the last election [1] - Technology stocks led the market rebound, with Tesla rising nearly 7% and Apple, Google, and Nvidia increasing by 5%-6%. The KraneShares China Internet ETF (KWEB) also rose over 5%, boosting Chinese concept stocks like Alibaba, JD, and Baidu [1] - U.S. Treasury yields increased rapidly, with the two-year yield rising to approximately 4%. Traders have adjusted their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts from three to two, with the first expected in September [1] Group 2 - The rebound in the market has caught many investors off guard, with few bargains available for those who missed the opportunity [2] - Morgan Stanley's strategy team identified four core conditions necessary for a sustained market rally: continued easing of U.S.-China trade relations, robust corporate earnings, a dovish shift in Federal Reserve policy, and ten-year Treasury yields stabilizing below 4% [2] - While the U.S. stock market has experienced a strong emotional reversal in the short term, there are still questions about whether this will support a substantial recovery in corporate earnings and ongoing improvements in macroeconomic data [2]

Group 1 - Wall Street is experiencing a significant rebound after a turbulent April, driven by a shift in sentiment due to Trump's easing stance on tariffs and positive economic data [1][4] - Investor sentiment has been extremely bearish, with over 50% of respondents in the AAII survey holding a negative outlook for 11 consecutive weeks, surpassing historical records [1] - The S&P 500 index has seen 11 out of 14 trading days of gains, countering the expectations of investors who had sold off stocks at record speeds [2] Group 2 - High-yield bonds have regained profitability, with the iShares iBoxx USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF rising nearly 4% in the past month [3] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) has declined for several weeks since early April, impacting those who had maintained long positions in volatility [3] - Institutional investors currently hold a neutral stance on key currencies and U.S. stocks, following a significant drop in stock positions to the lowest level since 2020 [4] Group 3 - The outlook for risk assets is cautiously optimistic, as the combination of position adjustments and low expectations may benefit stock prospects [5] - The future direction of the market is contingent on the progress of trade negotiations, with investors awaiting the upcoming U.S.-China economic talks [5] - Despite the market rebound, investors remain cautious, with U.S. stock-focused funds redeeming approximately $24.8 billion in the past four weeks, the highest in two years [5]

Market Performance - As of April 25, 2025, global stock markets showed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq slightly up and the DAX index in Germany also experiencing a small increase[3] - The U.S. stock indices displayed divergence, reflecting varying investor sentiment amid economic uncertainties[3] Economic Outlook - The ongoing negotiations between the White House and the Federal Reserve have led to a temporary halt in the sell-off of U.S. dollar assets, improving market sentiment[3] - Despite the easing tensions, concerns remain regarding potential economic downturns, with significant layoffs in government-related sectors expected to impact non-farm payroll data[3] Inflation and Interest Rates - Inflation expectations are rising, influenced by fluctuating energy and food prices, which could lead to further market volatility[3] - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts remains uncertain, with internal disagreements potentially affecting market expectations[3] Investment Strategy - In light of anticipated recessionary pressures, the recommendation is to prioritize U.S. Treasury holdings, particularly favoring short-term bonds while being cautious with equities[3] - The strategy suggests waiting for signs of stabilization in the market before making significant equity investments, particularly in sectors benefiting from interest rate cuts[3] Risks - Key risks include unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions that could exacerbate market volatility[3][43]

编 辑丨李莹亮,洪晓文,江佩佩 4月10日，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，标普500指数跌超3%；十年期美债收益率四连升；美元指数连续第三天下跌，触及半年来最低水平。 | < w | 美国国债 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 买入 | 英H | | 10Y 美国国债 | 4.4602 | 4.4582 | | 10YRNOTE.GBM | | | | 1M 美国国债 | 4.3022 | 4.292 | | 1MOBILL.GBM | | | | 2M 美国国债 | 4.3139 | 4.2985 | | 2MOBILL.GBM | | | | 3M 美国国债 | 4.3185 | 4.2947 | | 3MOBILL.GBM | | | | < W | | | 美元指数 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | USDX.FX | | | | | 100.4844 | | 前收 | 100.9372 | 开盘 | | 100.9347 | | -0.4528 - | -0.45% | 菜田 | 100 ...

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices are declining, raising concerns about whether the global economy has entered a "recession trade" and if oil prices could fall below $50 per barrel [1] Group 1 - The continuous drop in international oil prices suggests potential economic slowdown [1] - Analysts are questioning the sustainability of current oil price levels amid global economic uncertainties [1] - There is speculation about oil prices potentially dropping below $50 per barrel, which could have significant implications for the energy sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration has exceeded market expectations, leading to significant impacts on the U.S. economy and financial markets, with a potential annual tariff scale reaching $480 billion, covering 60% of U.S. imports [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The new tariffs could push U.S. import tax rates above 20%, marking a century-high level [2]. - Despite a downturn in various economic indicators, U.S. employment remains resilient, with March non-farm payrolls significantly exceeding expectations [2]. - The housing market in the U.S. continues to face challenges, particularly due to a shortage of labor, which is affecting supply [2]. Group 2: Financial Market Reactions - Financial markets have shifted their pricing logic from "inflation risk" to "economic recession," with significant declines in major indices and a drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield [3]. - Recommendations include increasing allocations to U.S. Treasuries and extending duration due to rising recession risks [3]. Group 3: Currency and Commodity Outlook - The U.S. dollar is expected to face downward pressure, potentially challenging the 100 mark, influenced by trade negotiations and liquidity concerns [3]. - Gold prices have seen a pullback post-tariff announcement, but the outlook remains positive as recession risks rise, suggesting a potential increase in allocation after market corrections [4][5]. Group 4: China's Economic Response - China's economy is facing increased external pressures due to the tariffs, with a cumulative 54% increase in tariffs imposed by the U.S. this year [7][9]. - Domestic consumption is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the automotive sector, while the housing market is experiencing localized improvements [8]. - China has announced retaliatory measures, including additional tariffs on U.S. imports and support for domestic demand through macroeconomic policies [9][10]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Strategy - Domestic risk aversion is rising, leading to a decline in risk appetite and a downward trend in A-shares [13]. - The bond market is expected to see lower yields as risk aversion increases, with a potential return of the 10-year government bond yield below 1.7% [13]. - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended for A-shares, focusing on technology, consumer, and dividend-paying stocks, while being cautious of overvalued sectors [14].

Core Views - The uncertainty surrounding tariff developments persists, but the market is accelerating its shift towards recession trading as expectations of a downturn rise. The synchronization of the economic cycles between China and the U.S. may occur sooner than anticipated [1][5] Tariff Policy and Market Impact - The current tariff policy is seen as a negotiation tactic by the U.S., applying extreme pressure on other countries to achieve a 10% tariff increase while potentially allowing for exemptions in certain industries. This strategy may lead to a reduction in actual tariffs imposed by many countries [3] - China's retaliatory tariff measures are expected to drive domestic substitution in high-end manufacturing and consumer sectors, particularly for products heavily reliant on U.S. imports [3][4] Market Sentiment and Investment Strategy - Investors are likely to lower their risk appetite in the short term, maintaining a framework focused on recession expectations. The uncertainty from the broad and high tariffs is expected to increase market volatility [4][6] - The transition from recession expectations to actual recession trading is becoming more probable, with key indicators such as U.S. corporate earnings per share (EPS) showing signs of decline [6][8] Economic Synchronization and Policy Response - The synchronization of economic cycles between China and the U.S. may lead to an earlier implementation of stimulus policies in China, with significant impacts on GDP growth and exports due to increased tariffs [7][8] - The anticipated window for investment opportunities may also arrive sooner, coinciding with external shocks and policy responses [8] Core Asset Investment Outlook - Core assets are expected to gain an advantage as the economic policy cycles align, with a focus on companies exhibiting strong operational resilience and growth potential. The GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) strategy is projected to outperform [9][10] - Short-term investment recommendations include sectors with pricing power and resilience to geopolitical disruptions, such as AI, precision optics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [11][12] Long-term Investment Trends - Long-term focus should be on global manufacturing demand recovery and the trend of Chinese technology going abroad, as geopolitical uncertainties drive countries to invest in energy, defense, and technology sectors [13]