美小麦期货过山车行情，美玉米和美豆期货也出现下跌，美元、天气与供需的多面夹击，后续价格走势 如何？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

本周硅片价格有止跌企稳迹象，主要原因是市场情绪有所回转，供需关系相对平稳，具体 来讲，一方面，随着硅片价格近期大幅下跌，下游需求端对当前价格接受程度较高，硅片采 买订单增加；另一方面，在成本压力下，供应端挺价意愿较强，且部分企业减产稳价意愿较 强。在库存降低，需求持稳，企业挺价以及供应降低的预期下，硅片价格持稳运行。据调研 了解，本周行业整体开工率在 55% 左右，其中两家一线企业开工率在 50% 和 56% ，一体 化企业开工率在 56%-80% 之间，其余企业开工在 55%-80% 之间。同时，硅片库存在降 低至 10 天左右用量。 本周硅片价格跌势暂缓，持稳运行，其中 N 型 G10L 单晶硅片 (182*183.75mm/130 μ m) 成交均价在 0.95 元 / 片，环比上周持平； N 型 G12R 单晶硅片 (182*210mm/130 μ m) 成交均价在 1.10 元 / 片，环比上周持平； N 型 G12 单晶硅片 (210*210 mm/130 μ m) 成交均价在 1.30 元 / 片，环比上周持平。本周市场放量成交，硅片库存下降较为明 显。 （张博） 本周下游电池、组件价格相对稳定 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overseas risk appetite has decreased, and attention should be paid to the impact of economic data releases on market sentiment. There is still a need to be aware of the long - term economic decline risk under US tariff policies. The copper raw material supply remains in a tight pattern, with strong price support, but the price center is expected to move down due to reduced consumption intensity [1]. - The domestic commodity sentiment is marginally stable, while the overseas risk appetite has weakened. High tariff levels lead to concerns about long - term demand. The high processing fees of aluminum rods are conducive to further inventory reduction of aluminum ingots, with strong price support, but the seasonal weak consumption will limit the upward space of aluminum prices, and the short - term price is expected to be volatile [3]. - The inventory of recycled raw materials is limited, and the profit of recycled lead enterprises is under pressure, with the operating rate continuously declining. After the battery enterprises' holidays, the operating rate has returned to a relatively high level. In the medium term, the Shanghai lead index is expected to fluctuate within a range of 16300 - 17800, and the short - term lead price shows a strong upward trend [5]. - In April, China's exports of unforged zinc alloys increased significantly. From a fundamental perspective, the port inventory of zinc concentrates continues to rise, and the processing fees of zinc concentrates increase again. The zinc ore surplus expectation remains unchanged. With the accumulation of zinc ingot inventory, the zinc price still has a certain downward risk in the medium term [7]. - The supply of tin is currently tight in the short term but is expected to loosen. The terminal orders in industries such as home appliances and electronics have not significantly increased, and the tin price center may move down under the drag of demand [8][9]. - The cost of nickel is expected to loosen, and the spot demand is weak. The inventory may return to the accumulation trend, and the nickel price maintains a bearish outlook [10]. - The supply and demand side of lithium carbonate lacks strong driving forces, and the futures price is in the cost - intensive area. If the demand does not weaken further, there is significant resistance to downward movement, and it is likely to fluctuate at the bottom [12]. - There are continuous disturbances in the ore and supply sides of alumina. The short - term impact of the mine shutdown in Guinea is large, and local policy uncertainty is high. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [15]. - The nickel - iron market is in a game situation, and the high - carbon ferrochrome market is waiting for the June tender of steel mills. The stainless - steel market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [17]. Summary by Metals Copper - The LME copper closed down 0.71% to $9487/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 77770 yuan/ton. The LME inventory decreased by 1925 tons to 168825 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio rose to 39.1%. The domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.5 tons to 4.1 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai decreased, and the downstream procurement sentiment improved. The import loss of domestic copper spot increased to over 400 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference narrowed slightly. The expected operating range of the Shanghai copper main contract today is 77000 - 78400 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is 9400 - 9600 dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - The LME aluminum closed down 0.22% to $2475/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20135 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract increased by 0.04 million hands to 51.6 million hands, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 tons to 6.0 tons. The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1.05 tons to 44.7 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 0.2 tons to 8.3 tons. The spot premium in the East China region remained unchanged. The expected operating range of the domestic main contract today is 20000 - 20260 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2450 - 2500 dollars/ton [3]. Lead - The 3S price of lead rose by 13.5 to $1985/ton. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16725 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 4.11 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 24.58 tons. The domestic social inventory increased to 5.82 tons. The medium - term expected operating range of the Shanghai lead index is 16300 - 17800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The Shanghai zinc index rose 0.76% to 22417 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S rose 62 to $2730.5/ton. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 22760 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc ingot futures inventory was 0.14 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 15.67 tons. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 8.38 tons. In April, China's exports of unforged zinc alloys increased significantly. The zinc price still has a downward risk in the medium term [7]. Tin - On May 21, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 267730 yuan/ton, up 1.13%. The domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange registered warehouse receipts increased by 45 tons to 8070 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 15 tons to 2670 tons. The upstream tin concentrate price rose. The tin ore supply is expected to loosen, and the tin price center may move down. The expected operating range of the domestic main contract is 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton, and that of overseas LME tin is 30000 - 33000 dollars/ton [8][9]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 123760 yuan/ton, up 0.18%, and the LME main contract closed at $15630/ton, up 0.64%. The price of nickel ore is stable or slightly decreased, the nickel - iron price is stable, and the price of intermediate products is high. The LME nickel inventory increased by 90 tons to 202098 tons. The nickel price maintains a bearish outlook. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract today is 120000 - 130000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is 15000 - 16300 dollars/ton [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The Five - Mineral Steel Union lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 62,657 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The LC2507 contract closed at 61,100 yuan, up 0.39%. The lithium carbonate price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. The expected operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2507 contract today is 60,400 - 61,800 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - On May 21, 2025, the alumina index rose 3.55% to 3241 yuan/ton. The spot prices in various regions increased. The overseas Australian FOB price remained stable, and the import loss was 152 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1.68 tons to 17.35 tons. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The expected operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2900 - 3500 yuan/ton [14][15]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12870 yuan/ton, up 0.23%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi remained unchanged. The raw material prices were mostly stable, and the nickel - iron price decreased slightly. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased by 0.42%. The stainless - steel market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [17].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-22 消息端扰动较多，盘面受消息扰动加大 市场分析 2025年5月21日，碳酸锂主力合约2507开于61060元/吨，收于61100元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价收涨0.59%。当 日成交量为270174手，持仓量为329205手，较前一交易日减少10468手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货贴水电碳1950 元/吨。所有合约总持仓571450手，较前一交易日增加11744手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日增加26820手，成 交量增加，整体投机度为0.5。当日碳酸锂仓单36393手，较上个交易日减少152手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年5月21日电池级碳酸锂报价6.13-6.48万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.02万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价6.095-6.195万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.015万元/吨。碳酸锂现货成交价格重心持续下行。当前 碳酸锂市场延续弱势运行格局，价格持续承压。从当前市场成交情况来看，以贸易商与下游材料厂之间的成交为 主，但成交寥寥。下游材料厂在客供及长协比例较高的情况下，等待价格的进一步下探。上游锂盐厂虽挺价情绪 持续，但考虑到目前锂 ...

行业 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 5 月 22 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚 ...

2025 年 5 月 22 日 商 品 研 究 | 碳酸锂：锂盐厂减产，并未影响资源端，上方仍然 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 承压 | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi@gtht.com | 邵婉嫕 | | | | | | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 liuhongru@gtht.com | | | | | | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | T-22 | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | | T-66 | | 2507合约（收盘价） | | 61,100 | 240 | -4,100 | -3,060 | -9,280 | -16,820 | | 2507合约（成交量） | | 270,174 | 27,898 | -107,351 | 66,360 | 213,449 | 266,264 | | | | 250 ...

动力煤市场供应充足，但电力需求疲软，新能源装机加速，拉尼娜现象 转换导致夏季气温或不及预期，多重因素叠加使得短期内动力煤价格难 有乐观表现，即使企稳也仅是阶段性因素导致，反弹力度有限。 电厂库存偏高，或延续旺季不旺的走势。即使七八月份库存去化，9 月 份可能出现小幅涨价，但难以突破 700 元。整体对全年煤价行情保持谨 慎，预计在较弱状态中震荡。 长协执行条件松动，现货紧缺缓解，煤价定价更市场化。在整体基本面 偏宽松的情况下，非电行业工业需求对煤价的反弹支撑减弱，对工业端 需求带来的季节性涨价持保守态度。 若动力煤价格反弹，幅度可能仅几十元，难以超过 700 元。大反弹需进 口减量、宏观利好、水电下降和极端天气同时出现。贸易商对后市谨慎 悲观，电厂补库积极性不高。 火电表现弱于预期，可能导致达峰时间提前。预计今年是煤价最低的一 年，未来价格或回升。难以复刻 2021-2022 年的周期上行，但全球对 能源安全担忧或支撑煤价。 对话期货专家：如何展望动力煤价格底部及后市走势？ 20250521 摘要 Q&A 动力煤价格近期下跌的原因是什么？短期内动力煤价格底部预计会是多少，什 么时候可能出现？ 今年动力煤价格持 ...

Supply Side - The increase in supply is driven by the rise in the number of pigs being marketed, as farmers are increasing their slaughter rates due to lower prices for fattened pigs compared to benchmark pigs [1] - The second and third quarters are expected to see an increase in sow productivity, leading to greater supply pressure in the medium term [1] Demand Side - Terminal demand is declining, with slower sales of pork and a decrease in slaughterhouse operating rates; however, some regions are still experiencing passive inventory accumulation [1] - There may be a temporary increase in demand due to preparations for the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival [1] Price Movement - Overall, the increase in supply from farmers is causing prices to fluctuate and trend weakly, with the live pig futures contract (2509) down by 0.26% and trading below the moving average [1] - The market is advised to monitor the situation regarding the number of pigs being marketed, as prices may face further downward pressure [1]

方正证券认为，从长期来看，当前黄金的价格在阶段性回调后有望维持长期上涨趋势。当前黄金价格本 身已经处于较高位，同时近期随着外部事件暂缓，短期内可能引发部分投资者高位获利了解或央行放缓 黄金购买节奏，进而引发黄金价格的出现阶段性回调。但从中长期角度看，在美元信用下降、美联储降 息周期开启、全球央行持续增加购金的背景下，黄金在短期调整后有望继续维持长期上行趋势。 2.债券型ETF今年激增超900亿，多只信用债ETF规模已翻倍 一、ETF行业快讯 1.三大指数集体上涨，黄金股相关ETF领涨 今日，三大指数集体上涨，上证综指上涨0.21%，深证成指上涨0.44%，创业板指上涨0.83%。黄金股相 关ETF领涨，其中，黄金股ETF（159562.SZ）上涨4.85%，黄金股ETF（517520.SH）上涨4.63%，黄金 股票ETF基金（159322.SZ）上涨4.51%。电子板块多只ETF下跌，半导体龙头ETF（159665.SZ）下跌 1.19%，半导体ETF（159813.SZ）下跌1.15%，芯片50ETF（159560.SZ）下跌1.10%。 据智通财经，近年来，随着利率水平不断降低，投资者对低交易成本、高交 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the recent volatility in gold prices, likening it to a "roller coaster" and questioning whether investors should buy the dip or sell at the peak [1] - Gold prices have fluctuated significantly since April 2025, with a peak of over $3500 per ounce on April 22, followed by a decline to $3325 per ounce by May 9, representing a drop of over 9% [2] - Historical data indicates that gold price fluctuations are not uncommon, with notable increases and decreases occurring over the decades, such as the rise from approximately $35 per ounce in 1970 to nearly $900 per ounce in 1980, followed by a prolonged bear market [4] Group 2 - The historical patterns of gold price movements are closely tied to macroeconomic conditions, with demand for gold typically rising during economic downturns and falling during periods of economic prosperity [5] - Factors such as monetary policy and geopolitical tensions significantly influence gold prices, with recent events like U.S. tariff policies and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine contributing to increased demand for gold as a safe haven [5][6] Group 3 - Technical analysis suggests that the rapid increase in gold prices in April led to overbought conditions, indicating a potential for short-term price corrections [7] - Profit-taking by investors following the price surge has created selling pressure, contributing to the recent declines in gold prices [8] Group 4 - Citibank has lowered its three-month gold price target from $3500 to $3150 per ounce, expecting prices to stabilize between $3000 and $3300 per ounce [9] - UBS forecasts a 12-month target price of $3500 per ounce, with potential scenarios ranging from $3200 to $3800 depending on geopolitical risks and economic conditions [9] - Goldman Sachs projects a year-end target price of $3700 per ounce, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts and increased central bank gold purchases [10] Group 5 - Historical comparisons suggest that the current macroeconomic environment bears similarities to the 1970s, indicating that gold may experience a period of adjustment and consolidation following significant price increases [12] - The analysis of past price movements indicates that after a substantial rise, gold prices may stabilize or experience fluctuations for several months before resuming an upward trend [12] Group 6 - Investors are advised to adopt different strategies based on their investment horizons, with long-term investors encouraged to maintain a 15%-20% allocation to gold in their portfolios, while short-term traders should monitor technical levels for potential buying opportunities [14]