Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro sentiment is generally bullish, and with the entry of long - position funds, the market pulled up rapidly in the afternoon with significant volatility. Risk - preferring investors can consider short - selling on rallies [2][3]. - It's necessary to focus on the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under the easing of tariff policies, and the final result of the court ruling [3]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Summary Based on Related Content 3.1 Freight Rate Index - **SCFIS and NCFI**: On May 26, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1247.05 points, down 1.4% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1719.79 points, up 18.9%. On May 23, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1106.08 points, up 9.02%; for the European route, it was 783.58 points, up 4.35%; for the US - West route, it was 1894.63 points, up 4.50% [2]. - **SCFI and CCFI**: On May 23, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1586.12 points, up 106.73 points. The SCFI European route price was 1317 USD/TEU, up 14.12%; the US - West route was 3275 USD/FEU, up 5.95%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1107.40 points, up 0.2%; for the European route, it was 1392.61 points, down 2.6%; for the US - West route, it was 908.14 points, up 3.6% [2]. 3.2 PMI Data - Eurozone: In May, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous 49); the service PMI preliminary value was 48.9 (expected 50.3, previous 50.1); the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.5 (expected 50.7, previous 50.4). The Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 (expected - 11.5, previous - 19.5) [2]. - US: In May, the Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.3 (a three - month high, expected 49.9, previous 50.2); the service PMI preliminary value was 52.3 (a two - month high, expected 51, previous 50.8); the composite PMI preliminary value was 52.1 (expected 50.3, previous 50.6) [3]. 3.3 Market Conditions - On May 29, the main contract 2508 closed at 2131.0, with a 6.34% increase, a trading volume of 131,600 lots, and an open interest of 46,600 lots, an increase of 2813 lots from the previous day [3]. - Spot freight rates are gradually stabilizing, which supports the market to some extent. However, due to the unclear peak - season momentum, there was intense competition between long and short positions in the morning. In the afternoon, the market price was quickly pulled up and then fluctuated slightly, possibly due to the generally bullish macro situation and the entry of some long - position funds [3]. 3.4 Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: For the 2506 contract, focus on the logic of basis convergence. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to lightly short - sell when it rebounds above 2250 and set a stop - loss [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Under the background of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a situation where near - term freight rates are stronger than long - term ones. It is necessary to pay attention to the result of the court ruling. Currently, the market is volatile, and it is advisable to mainly use positive - spread arbitrage [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rallies. Wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback before making further judgments [4]. 3.5 Other Information - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 18% [4]. - The margin of the company for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2506 to 2604 is 100 lots [4].

Key Points - The focus for financial data and events on May 30, 2025, includes various economic indicators from the US, Japan, Switzerland, and Canada [1][3] - Key US economic data to be released includes the Core PCE Price Index year-on-year and month-on-month, personal spending month-on-month, and the Chicago PMI for May [1] - Japan's unemployment rate for April and Switzerland's KOF Economic Leading Indicator for May are also significant data points to monitor [1]

Core Insights - The macroeconomic policies in China are being intensified to address insufficient domestic demand and increased external shocks, with a focus on enhancing corporate financing needs and investment willingness [2][4][6] CPI - In April 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from -0.7% to -0.1%, aligning with market expectations, primarily due to the impact of tariff policies and falling international oil prices [4] - The core CPI remained low at 0.5%, indicating a weak domestic price level, prompting continued monetary and fiscal policy efforts to stimulate consumption and investment [4] PPI - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell to -2.7% in April, marking a decline for two consecutive months, influenced by international factors and insufficient domestic demand [6] - The central government has proposed more proactive macro policies to counteract these challenges, including a package of financial policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [6] PMI - The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.0%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, with declines in production and new orders [8] - The non-manufacturing PMI also decreased to 50.4%, reflecting a slowdown in the service and construction sectors [8] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in the first four months of 2025 grew by 4.0% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment contributing significantly to overall growth [12] - Real estate investment showed a larger decline, while infrastructure investment remained stable due to government policy support [12] Credit - New RMB loans in April totaled 280 billion, a decrease of 450 billion year-on-year, with corporate loans being the main drag on credit growth [15] - The decline in consumer loans indicates weak consumer sentiment, while medium to long-term loans are affected by real estate market conditions [15] M2 - The broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.0% in April, reflecting an expansion in monetary supply supported by policy measures [19] - The growth rate of M2 outpaced that of narrow money (M1), indicating limited improvement in corporate liquidity and cautious investment sentiment [19]

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures experienced an overall increase, with the main Shanghai gold contract priced at 777.30 CNY per gram, up by 0.29%, and the main Shanghai silver contract at 8280.00 CNY per kilogram, up by 0.49% [1] - International precious metal prices showed mixed results, with COMEX gold priced at 3332.10 USD per ounce, down by 0.76%, and COMEX silver at 33.57 USD per ounce, down by 0.21% [1] Group 2 - As of May 17, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. was 227,000, slightly below the market expectation of 230,000, indicating a healthy job market despite trade policy uncertainties [3] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to a three-month high of 52.3, while the services PMI initial value also reached 52.3, marking a two-month high [3] - The CME "FedWatch" tool indicates a 94.4% probability of maintaining interest rates in June, with a 5.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut [4]

Economic Indicators - The Atlanta Fed's GDP Now indicates a 2.4% actual GDP growth rate for Q2 2025, with a -0.1% adjustment excluding gold impacts[1] - The actual personal consumption Nowcast rose to 3.7% last week, indicating strong consumer spending[1] - Initial jobless claims decreased to 227,000, below expectations, while continuing claims increased to 1.903 million, exceeding forecasts[1] Manufacturing and PMI Data - The US May PMI rose to 52.5, with both manufacturing and services PMIs at 52.3, surpassing expectations and previous values[2] - Eurozone and Japan's manufacturing PMIs also exceeded expectations, at 49.4 and 49 respectively, although service sectors showed weakness[2] Policy Developments - The US House passed the "Beautiful Act," which includes tax cuts, defense spending, and an increase in the debt ceiling, with fiscal expansion slightly exceeding expectations[3] - Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1, while Japan softened its stance on tariffs[3] Financial Market Trends - US stock markets experienced a pullback, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones down 2.6%, 2.5%, and 2.5% respectively[4] - The yield on 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year US Treasuries rose by 2bp, 8bp, and 15bp to 4.0%, 4.51%, and 5.04% respectively[4] - The US dollar index fell by 1.8% to 99.1, while the euro and yen appreciated by 0.9% to 1.13 and 1.3% to 143.3 respectively[4] Commodity Prices - COMEX gold futures increased by 5.6% to $3365.8 per ounce, while Brent crude oil rose by 0.7% to $65.6 per barrel[4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the US dollar index are primarily driven by the reassessment of US fiscal and credit risks, following Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign rating and the anticipated increase in federal debt due to large-scale tax cuts and expansionary fiscal policies [1] Group 1: US Economic Indicators - The 30-year US Treasury yield has surpassed 5.1% due to rising fiscal risks [1] - In April, the foreign exchange settlement deficit slightly widened, with increased corporate foreign exchange transactions indicating heightened trading activity [1] - The US PMI preliminary reading for May exceeded expectations, although Moody's downgrade has weakened confidence in the dollar [1] Group 2: China Economic Indicators - China's cross-border capital inflow remains strong, with a stable goods trade surplus [1] - The People's Bank of China has lowered the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [1] - The volume of foreign capital in Chinese bond custody has rebounded, indicating improved foreign investment sentiment [1] Group 3: European Economic Indicators - The Eurozone's harmonized CPI for April was reported at 2.2% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month [1] - The preliminary composite PMI for May was recorded at 49.5, with the services PMI at 48.9, indicating a contraction in the services sector [1] - The European Commission has revised down its growth forecasts for the next two years [1] Group 4: Japanese Economic Indicators - Japan's manufacturing sector remains in contraction, with the May PMI data showing a slight recovery but still below the neutral line [1] - The services and composite PMIs in Japan have declined [1] - Japan's April exports grew by 2% year-on-year, while the CPI for April was reported at 3.6% year-on-year [1] Group 5: Currency Outlook - The US dollar is expected to maintain a weak position in the short term, with potential short-selling opportunities following a period of range-bound trading [1] - The Japanese yen shows short-term momentum [1] - The decline in US credit is unexpectedly strengthening the euro, with attention on the progress of US-EU tariff negotiations [1]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.23」 铝类市场周报 供给稳定需求略降，铝类或将震荡运行 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号 F03123381 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铝震荡走势，周涨跌幅+0.12%，报20155元/吨。氧化铝震荡偏强，周涨跌+9.65%，报3169元/吨。 行情展望：国际方面，标普全球公布数据显示，美国5月制造业PMI升至三个月高点52.3。服务业PMI初值52.3，创下两个月 新高。新订单增速达到一年多来最快，价格指标升至近三年最高，制造业出口订单连续第二个月收缩，就业指标亦下降。国 内方面，国务院副总理何立峰会见美国摩根大通集团董事长兼首席执行官杰米·戴蒙时指出，中国欢迎美资企业深化对华互利 合作，推动中美经贸关系健康稳定持续发展。基本面上，原料端，国内铝土矿进口大幅提升，由于澳大利亚逐渐走出雨季影 响发运量稳步恢复，加之几内亚矿在雨季前的集中发运，预 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜先抑后扬，上涨 0.34%至 9519.5 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力下跌 0.12%至 | | | | | 77820 元/吨；国内现货进口持续亏损。宏观方面，美国 5 月综合、制造业、服务业 | | | | | PMI 均好于预期，受关税政策缓解影响，美国本月的商业活动和产出预期均有所改 | | | | | 善，制造业和服务业呈现同步增长的态势，特别是新订单相对比较强劲。而欧元区 | 5 | | | | 月综合 PMI 从 4 月的 50.4 降至 49.5，制造业的小幅改善被服务业的下跌所抵消。美 | | | | | 欧经济体之间的对比，或有利于美元后期的企稳表现。特朗普减税案在众院涉险过 | | | | 铜 | 关，正提交参议院审议。美联储理事沃勒表示，减税法案引发美债抛售，若关税稳定 | | | | | 在 10%水平，美联储下半年将降息。库存方面，LME 铜库存下降 2300 吨至 166525 | | | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Equity Index**: The Trump tax - cut bill barely passed in the House of Representatives and still faces challenges in the Senate. Fed理事沃勒 said the tax - cut bill triggered the selling of US Treasuries, and if tariffs stabilize, there may be an interest rate cut in the second half of the year. US May Markit manufacturing and services PMIs exceeded expectations and expanded, with the price index rising again. The Eurozone's May PMI unexpectedly contracted, and the service sector had its worst performance in 16 months. After the US - Japan finance ministers' meeting, the US said "no exchange - rate discussion, the current exchange rate reflects fundamentals", and Japan said "no discussion on US Treasuries". In the domestic market, the rotation is fast, the main driving force of the market is weak, and the equity index may fluctuate [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Recently, the market has entered a data vacuum zone, lacking new positive or negative factors, and oscillation has become the consensus. From the futures trend, the long - and short - side forces are evenly matched. During the oscillation period, when it touches the upper or lower limit of the range, there will be short - term confrontations between the long and short sides. Without incremental information or fundamental data guidance in the short term, the oscillation pattern is expected to continue, and the market may continue to focus on spread mining [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - **Equity Index**: Adopt a defensive and wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Bullish in the short term [4]. 4. Market Review - **Equity Index**: The main contract futures of the CSI 300 index fell 0.05%, the main contract futures of the SSE 50 index rose 0.1%, the main contract futures of the CSI 500 index fell 0.7%, and the main contract futures of the CSI 1000 index fell 0.81% [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.0%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.0% [9]. 5. Technical Analysis - **Equity Index**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows a possible oscillating operation with adjustment risks [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows an oscillating operation and may rebound [10]. 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Zhang) | Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | CSI 300 Main Continuous | 3879.60 | - 0.05 | 52835 | 143884 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | SSE 50 Main Continuous | 2715.40 | 0.10 | 28918 | 51342 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | CSI 500 Main Continuous | 5614.80 | - 0.70 | 53832 | 116140 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | CSI 1000 Main Continuous | 5950.00 | - 0.81 | 148619 | 195203 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 10 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 108.81 | 0.01 | 65126 | 156071 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 5 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 105.98 | - 0.00 | 47004 | 116615 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 30 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 119.52 | - 0.04 | 67554 | 82843 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 2 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 102.37 | - 0.00 | 34274 | 100554 | [12]

2025年05月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡回落 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：跟随上涨 | 2 | | 铜：库存减少，支撑价格 | 4 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 6 | | 氧化铝：小幅下跌 | 6 | | 锌：承压运行 | 8 | | 铅：供需双弱，区间调整 | 9 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 10 | | 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 | 12 | | 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 | 12 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 23 日 黄金：震荡回落 白银：跟随上涨 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日 ...