Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for June 2025 is 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[4] - In June, 11 out of 21 surveyed industries are in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 industries compared to last month[6] - Large enterprises' PMI is 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points, while small enterprises' PMI is 47.3%, down 2.0 percentage points[11] Supply and Demand - The production index and new orders index are at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points[15] - The supply and demand index has rebounded, aligning with seasonal trends, with certain industries like food and beverage showing expansion[15] - Non-metal mineral products and black metal smelting industries continue to contract due to insufficient end demand from the real estate sector[15] Price Index and Procurement - The main raw material purchase price index and factory price index are at 48.4% and 46.2%, both rising by 1.5 percentage points[20] - The procurement index has increased to 50.2%, up 2.6 percentage points, indicating a rise in enterprise procurement activity[21] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector's business activity index is at 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points, indicating stability[24] - The construction sector's business activity index is 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, showing a seasonal rebound but with notable sub-sector differentiation[26] Risks - External disturbances and changes in real estate demand pose risks to the overall economic outlook[30]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - China's GDP growth is expected to remain robust at 5.0-5.2% YoY for Q2 2025, supported by front-loading of exports and earlier government stimulus measures [4][32] - The property market continues to face challenges, with 30-city property sales declining by 10% YoY in June, and top 100 developers' contract sales volume down by 35% YoY [9][19] - Manufacturing PMIs show slight improvements, with NBS manufacturing PMI at 49.7 and Caixin manufacturing PMI at 50.4 in June, indicating a less negative growth momentum [7][10] Economic Data Summary - **GDP Growth**: Q2 GDP growth is projected at 5.0-5.2% YoY, with a slower sequential growth compared to Q1 [4][32] - **Industrial Production**: Expected to soften to 5.4% YoY in June, down from 5.8% YoY in May [3][16] - **Retail Sales**: Anticipated to moderate to 6% YoY in June, slightly down from 6.4% YoY in May [23] - **Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)**: Overall FAI growth likely recorded 3% YoY in June, with property investment declining by 10-12% YoY [20] - **Exports and Imports**: Export growth expected to edge down to 4% YoY in June, while imports may improve to 1% YoY [23] Sector-Specific Insights - **Manufacturing Sector**: NBS manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2ppt to 49.7 in June, with improvements in new orders and production indices [7][10] - **Property Sector**: The property market continues to weaken, with significant declines in sales and new starts [9][19] - **Automotive Sector**: Auto retail sales growth picked up to 24% YoY in June, driven by a low base and trade-in subsidies [23][38] High-Frequency Data - **PMIs**: NBS non-manufacturing PMI edged up to 50.5 in June, indicating slight growth in services, while construction PMI improved significantly [8] - **Port Activities**: Port cargo throughput growth moderated to 1% YoY in June, reflecting a slowdown in trade activities [9][17] - **Credit Growth**: Total social financing (TSF) credit growth likely edged up to 8.8% YoY in June, with new RMB loans at approximately RMB 1.85 trillion [30][31]

🗒️财新方面宣布，自2025年7月起，财新将正式终止对标准普尔中国PMI的冠名。因此，2025年7月初发布的财新中国PMI将作为最后一期在财新冠名下发布的中国PMI。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):中国6月财新服务业PMI录得50.6（2024年10月以来最低），预期50.9，前值51.1。综合PMI录得51.3，前值49.6。财新：受“五一”、端午假期效应减退等因素影响，6月中国服务业扩张速度放缓。 https://t.co/7jj2xvjsy8 ...

中国6月财新服务业PMI录得50.6（2024年10月以来最低），预期50.9，前值51.1。综合PMI录得51.3，前值49.6。财新：受“五一”、端午假期效应减退等因素影响，6月中国服务业扩张速度放缓。 https://t.co/7jj2xvjsy8外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):中国6月财新制造业PMI录得50.4，预期49.3，前值48.3。财新：生产指数和新订单指数均从收缩区间再度回到荣枯线上方，前者录得7个月新高，新出口订单指数、就业指数和原材料购进价格指数均在收缩区间上升。 https://t.co/9qFbCQcbKf ...

Group 1 - Musk criticized Trump's "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, suggesting that if passed, it would lead to the formation of a new political party called "American Party" [4] - Trump's interview indicated that Musk's discontent stems from the bill's proposal to eliminate tax credits for electric vehicle consumers, impacting Tesla's interests [6] - A survey revealed that 49% of Americans oppose the bill, while only 29% support it, indicating significant public dissent [9] Group 2 - In June, U.S. private sector employment unexpectedly fell by 33,000, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, with the service sector experiencing its largest decline since the pandemic [13] - Following the employment data, traders increased bets on at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of 2025, with expectations for the upcoming non-farm payroll report [15] - UBS forecasts a modest increase of 100,000 in non-farm payrolls for June, while Citigroup predicts an increase of only 85,000, with concerns about a potential rise in the unemployment rate [15]

国收研究报告 可证券|CGS 震荡格局下波段为主、关注大 6 月债市回顾及 7 月展望 核心观点 债市回顾:利率震荡下行,收益率曲线牛陡 ● 6月以来,债市在中美谈判未超预期、央行阿护资金面、以伊冲突等因素的影响下,债 市震荡走强,短端下行幅度更大,10Y、1Y国债收益率分别下行 3BP、11BP。上半 月,在央行两度公告开展买断式逆回购呵护资金面、中美谈判未超预期、国际地缘冲突 加剧的影响下,债市走强,10Y 国债收益率下行 3BP;月下旬,在央行买断式逆回购 落地、重启国债买卖预期短暂落空、市场预期监管窗口指导的影响下,债市震荡略走 强. 10Y 国债收益率下行 0.4BP;月末,受止盈压力、权益市场走强带来的股债路路 板等影响, 债市震荡走弱, 10Y 国债收益率上行 1BP。截至 6 月 27 日，10 年期国债 收益率自1.67%下行 2.5BP 至 1.65%,1年期国债收益率自1.46%下行 11BP 至 1.35%, 期限利差走阔 8.5BP 至 30.1BP。 ● 本月债市展望:资金面大概率无虞,关注政治局会议政策加力信号 基本面来看,对于 6月,一方面继续关注 CPI 在 0 附近徘徊的可 ...

Economic Indicators - June PMI data shows a continued upward trend, but the rate of increase has slowed down, indicating potential economic uncertainty[6] - Manufacturing PMI for June recorded at 49.7%, slightly up from 49.5% in May, while non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5% from 50.3%[6] - Production and new orders PMI for June are at 51% and 50.2% respectively, indicating stable demand but a slowdown in growth[6] Inventory and Orders - Raw material inventory PMI is at 48%, and finished goods inventory PMI is at 48.1%, both showing an increase[2] - New export orders PMI is at 47.7%, reflecting a slowdown in growth and indicating that indirect trade impacts from U.S. tariff exemptions are nearing their end[6] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI remains strong at 50.9%, while basic raw materials PMI is at 47.8%, indicating a significant increase[6] - Construction activity index for June is at 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting robust infrastructure project progress[6] Risks and Outlook - Global supply chain competition is intensifying, and external demand may change faster than expected, posing risks to economic stability[3] - The report suggests that while current macroeconomic data appears stable, ongoing policy support is necessary to sustain demand amid uncertainties[6]

Macroeconomy - The central bank plans to intensify monetary policy regulation, maintain ample liquidity, and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply. It aims to explore the normalization of "swap facilities and stock repurchase and increase re - loans" and support securities, funds, and insurance companies to participate in market stability. The manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7% (+0.2%), and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5% (+0.2%). However, the PMI of small enterprises dropped to 47.3% (-2.0%)[2] - The closing prices of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices increased by 0.21%, 0.17%, 0.33%, and 0.28% respectively compared to the previous day. The basis of IM/IC expanded significantly, while that of IH/IF changed moderately[2] - The four major indices show a pattern of multiple strengths and few weaknesses. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on small and medium - cap index futures on dips, and the opportunity of band trading for large - cap index futures[2] Crude Oil - The situation in the Middle East has eased. The market is speculating about the Fed's potential interest rate cut in July and the expected production increase at the OPEC+ meeting in July. There are reports that Saudi Arabia may seek to increase production to regain lost market share[3] - Trump tweeted that he would lower oil prices and encourage the US to invest heavily in new oil fields. The number of US oil wells has dropped to the lowest level since November 2021. After the cooling of the Iran - Israel conflict, the risk premium has declined significantly, leading to a large - scale decline in crude oil prices. Although the summer peak season for crude oil is approaching, and US crude oil and refined product inventories continue to decline while refining activities increase, providing some support to oil prices, in the long - term, the price center of crude oil will move downward[3] - Attention should be paid to the support level of around $65 per barrel for the WTI main contract[3] Gold - In May, the year - on - year core PCE was 2.7% (previous value 2.6%, expected 2.6%), and the month - on - month was 0.2% (previous value 0.1%); the year - on - year overall PCE was 2.3%, and the month - on - month was 0.1%, both in line with expectations. The final value of the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in June was 60.7 (previous value 60.3), and the long - term inflation expectation dropped to 4%. The progress of trade negotiations has weakened the demand for hedging[4] - Powell's congressional testimony released a dovish stance, indicating that if tariffs do not cause a sharp rise in inflation, there may be an interest rate cut in September. The market's pricing of the probability of an interest rate cut in September has risen to 78% (CME data), but there are still differences in the stickiness of inflation[4] - Spot gold may test the resistance area of $3295 - $3306 per ounce. Investors need to pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls and PMI data in June and the impact of the "Big and Beautiful" bill[6] Silver - The "Big and Beautiful" bill was passed by the Senate on June 29. The CBO estimates that the US fiscal deficit will increase by $2.77 trillion in the next decade. The Fed has kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%. The median interest rate expectation for 2025 is 3.9% (the same as in March), and the expectations for 2026 - 2027 have been raised to 3.6%/3.4%. Seven voting members support no interest rate cut in 2025, and Powell emphasized that "tariff inflation is not a one - time shock"[7] - There is a certain possibility that the Fed will lower the policy interest rate in the second half of the year. When the Fed's easing expectation increases, the international silver price will show a stronger trend. The key support level is around $35 per ounce. Investors need to pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls data and PMI in June and be vigilant against the "hawkish surprise" that may suppress the easing expectation[7] Chemicals PTA - The spot price in East China is 4990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis is 190 yuan/ton. In July, PTA device maintenance and restart are concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 78.61%, a decrease of 2.94% month - on - month. The spot processing fee is 427.82 yuan/ton, an increase of 106.674 yuan/ton month - on - month. In mid - to - late June, 1.8 million tons of equipment entered the maintenance cycle (accounting for 3.2% of the total capacity), supporting the short - term de - stocking process. However, attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new devices in July[8] - The polyester factory load is maintained at 88.63%, a decrease of 0.61% month - on - month, the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load is 59.01%, a decrease of 1.66% month - on - month, and the terminal order days are 9.06 days, a decrease of 0.36 days month - on - month. The textile and clothing industry is entering the off - season, the demand side is continuously sluggish, and some enterprises have the expectation of reducing production. Short - term attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being[8] Ethylene Glycol - The spot price in East China is 4330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis is 57 yuan/ton. The overall operating load of ethylene glycol is 60.4%, an increase of 1.4% month - on - month, and the coal - based operating rate is 57.26%, an increase of 0.95% month - on - month. The weekly output is 36.97 tons, an increase of 0.85 tons compared with the previous week. The inventory in the main ports in East China has decreased by 3.13 tons to 50.57 tons and has been de - stocking for three consecutive weeks[9] - Affected by the conflict in the Middle East, 3 sets of equipment with a total capacity of 1.35 million tons in Iran have stopped production, while the restart plans of Saudi and Malaysian devices have boosted the import expectation. The polyester factory load and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load have both decreased, and the textile market has entered the off - season with some terminal industries having the expectation of reducing production. Short - term attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances, and the price will mainly move in a range. Radical investors can go short on rallies, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the pressure of increased imports[9] PVC - The mainstream spot price of Type 5 PVC in East China is 4740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton month - on - month; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 4980 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; the price difference between ethylene and electricity is 260 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton month - on - month[10] - The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises last week was 78.09%, a decrease of 0.53% month - on - month and 1.64% year - on - year. The domestic downstream products enterprises have not improved significantly, and the transactions are still mainly for rigid demand. As of June 26, the PVC social inventory has increased by 1.03% to 57.52 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 38.06% year - on - year. The PVC fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the price will still fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[10][11] PP - The mainstream prices of PP raffia in North China, East China, and South China are 7174 yuan/ton, 7176 yuan/ton, and 7298 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 4 yuan/ton, 14 yuan/ton, and 11 yuan/ton[12] - The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene last week was 79.30%, a decrease of 0.54% month - on - month. The domestic polypropylene production was 78.92 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons compared with last week, a growth rate of 0.23%, and an increase of 14.52 tons compared with the same period last year, a growth rate of 22.55%. The average start - up rate of domestic polypropylene downstream industries has decreased by 0.58 percentage points to 49.05%. As of June 25, 2025, the inventory of Chinese polypropylene production enterprises was 58.50 tons, a decrease of 2.26 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.72%. The fundamentals have no obvious driving force, and the price will mainly fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[12] Plastic - The mainstream spot prices in North China, East China, and South China are 7354 yuan/ton, 7521 yuan/ton, and 7614 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 22 yuan/ton, 42 yuan/ton, and 23 yuan/ton[14] - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises is 76.44%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points compared with the previous period. The average start - up rate of downstream products of LLDPE/LDPE in China last week decreased by 0.48% compared with the previous period. As of June 25, 2025, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 44.82 tons, a decrease of 5.12 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 10.25%, and the inventory trend continued to decline. The current fundamentals of plastics have not improved significantly, and the price will mainly fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[14] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area is 1210 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. There are some differences among regions. The overall operating rate of soda ash last week was 82.21%, a decrease of 4.25% month - on - month, and the soda ash production was 71.68 tons, a decrease of 3.69 tons month - on - month, a decline of 4.90%. There were device shutdowns for maintenance in Qinghai and Shaanxi, and the production of Inner Mongolia Boyuan was gradually stabilizing. The supply side still has fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the summer maintenance situation[15] - Last week, the manufacturer's inventory was 176.69 tons, an increase of 4.02 tons month - on - month, a growth rate of 2.33%. The social inventory is showing a downward trend, with the total amount approaching 280,000 tons, a decrease of more than 30,000 tons. The demand side performance is average. The middle and lower reaches replenish inventory for rigid demand for low - price goods, but still have a resistance to high - price goods. The soda ash market has limited new driving forces except for the reduction in supply. It is recommended to treat it with a bottom - range oscillation idea. Attention should be paid to market sentiment, inventory changes, device maintenance, and unexpected disturbances[15] Glass - The market price of 5mm large - size glass in the Shahe area is 1130 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton month - on - month. There are some differences among regions. The operating rate of float glass last week was 75.14%, a decrease of 0.26% month - on - month, and the weekly glass production was 109.09 tons, a decrease of 0.26 tons month - on - month, a decline of 0.24%. The glass production line has changed frequently recently, and the supply has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the changes in the production line[16] - Last week, the inventory of float glass manufacturers was 69.216 million weight - boxes, a decrease of 671,000 weight - boxes month - on - month, a decline of 0.96%, and the inventory has decreased slightly but the amplitude is limited. The demand side is still weak, and there is no positive driving force. The glass market has limited driving forces, and it is recommended to treat it with a bottom - range oscillation idea in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in enterprise inventory, production line changes, and market sentiment[16] Rubber - The spot prices of domestic whole - latex, Thai RSS3, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber, and No. 20 rubber are 13,950 yuan/ton, 19,550 yuan/ton, 14,600 yuan/ton, and 13,600 yuan/ton respectively. The raw material prices in Hat Yai are 66.09 baht/kg for RSS3, 55.5 baht/kg for latex, 47.95 baht/kg for cup lump, and 61.77 baht/kg for raw rubber[17] - There is an expectation of a缓和 in the trade war, and the Fed has shown some signs of a possible interest rate cut in July. Rubber is in a rebound window with improved sentiment. The domestic whole - latex has started to be harvested, and the production areas in Yunnan have fully started harvesting, while the latex in Hainan has started to increase in volume. The Southeast Asian production areas have fully started harvesting, and the supply is generally loose. Currently, the global supply and demand of rubber are both loose. The start - up rate of downstream tire enterprises has decreased for semi - steel tires and increased slightly for all - steel tires. The market is speculating on macro - narratives such as the trade war. The US tariff collection on automobiles and household appliances may seriously suppress the global demand for rubber. Attention should be paid to the start - up situation of the rubber downstream[17] Methanol - The spot price in Zhejiang is 2590 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price in Xinjiang is 1625 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Anhui is 2310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The closing price of the main methanol futures contract MA509 is 2384 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.13% compared with the previous trading day[18] - The total port inventory has increased to 67.05 tons, an increase of 8.41 tons compared with the previous period. The domestic methanol industry operating rate has reached 91.31%. After the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the reconstruction work in Iran has started, and the shut - down devices are expected to gradually resume production. However, the problem of natural gas shortage in Iran may continue until winter, and there is still uncertainty in the far - month supply. The start - up rate of MTO devices has dropped to 87.41%, and the start - up rate of MTBE has rebounded to 64.40%. The demand for traditional downstream industries such as formaldehyde and dimethyl ether is still weak. The price of steam coal is stable and slightly strong, but it has limited support for the cost of methanol. The short - term futures price will mainly fluctuate. After the geopolitical conflict eases, attention should be paid to the progress of Iran's supply recovery and the accumulation of domestic inventory[18] Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA's June supply and demand report lowered the global and US ending inventories, but the overall support of the report is limited. The domestic corn market is in the window period of the alternation of old and new grains, and the remaining grain is being continuously consumed. The decreasing inventory in the main production areas has supported the reluctance of traders to sell. However, affected by the substitution effect of wheat and the news of policy grain auctions, the upward momentum of prices may be weakened. The downstream procurement of corn is cautious, and the consumption is weak. The low breeding profit has led to the on - demand procurement of breeding enterprises, and the low operating rate of corn deep - processing enterprises due to losses has limited the boosting effect on downstream demand[19] - The main corn contract is in an upward channel, but it is under pressure from the resistance of the upward channel in the short term and has retraced. Attention should be paid to the support level of 2350 yuan/ton at the lower edge of the channel[20] Peanut - The spot prices in different regions vary. Currently, it is the peanut planting season, and the market expects that the domestic peanut planting area will increase year - on - year in 2025. If the weather is normal during this period, the peanut price in the far - month may be under pressure. In the short term, the peanut market has entered the inventory consumption period, and the import of peanuts has decreased, resulting in a low inventory level in each link of the market. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the low inventory may push the peanut price up due to the replenishment demand[21] -

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the July 2, 2025, futures market trends, including the likely performance of various futures contracts such as stock index futures, bond futures, and commodity futures [2]. - It also presents the expected trends for these futures in July 2025, offering resistance and support levels [18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 2, 2025, it is expected to oscillate and consolidate. For example, IF2509 has resistance at 3904 and 3931 points and support at 3867 and 3852 points [2]. - **Bond Futures**: Ten - year and thirty - year bond futures are likely to have a relatively strong oscillation on July 2, 2025. For instance, the T2509 ten - year bond futures contract has resistance at 109.06 and 109.12 yuan and support at 108.92 and 108.88 yuan [3]. - **Commodity Futures**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold futures are expected to have a relatively strong oscillation, while silver futures are likely to have a relatively weak oscillation on July 2, 2025 [3]. - **Base Metals**: Copper and aluminum futures may have a relatively strong oscillation, while zinc and industrial silicon futures are likely to have a relatively weak oscillation [3][4]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate, while fuel oil, PTA, and other futures are likely to have a relatively weak oscillation [3][5]. - **Agricultural Products**: Bean meal futures are likely to have a relatively weak oscillation [7]. Macro Information and Trading Tips - Central Financial and Economic Commission held its sixth meeting to discuss issues such as the construction of a unified national market and high - quality development of the marine economy [8]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June reached 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May, returning above the critical point [8]. - From January to May, the added value of large - scale light industry increased by 7% year - on - year, and the retail sales of furniture and household appliances increased significantly [8]. - From January to May, large - scale Internet companies' business revenue increased by 0.9% year - on - year, while their total profit decreased by 2.2% [8]. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 1, 2025, the performance of various stock index futures contracts was mixed, with some showing weak rebounds and some showing slight declines. The expected trend in July 2025 is a relatively strong oscillation [14][15][18]. - **Bond Futures**: On July 1, 2025, most bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 1310 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2755 billion yuan. The short - term Shibor rates declined [34]. - **Commodity Futures**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver futures showed rebounds on July 1, 2025. The expected trend in July 2025 is a wide - range oscillation for gold and a relatively strong wide - range oscillation for silver [44][50]. - **Base Metals**: Copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures had different performances on July 1, 2025. The expected trend in July 2025 is a relatively strong wide - range oscillation for most of them [52][57]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil futures showed a slight rebound on July 1, 2025. The expected trend in July 2025 is a relatively strong wide - range oscillation [89]. - **Agricultural Products**: Bean meal futures had a weak rebound on July 1, 2025, and are expected to have a relatively weak oscillation on July 2, 2025 [103].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For LLDPE and PP, the market is expected to be volatile today. The main factors include the cease - fire in the Middle East leading to a decline in crude oil prices, the off - season for demand, weak downstream demand, and the pressure of new capacity, while the industrial inventory is neutral [4][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, and the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April. On June 24, the US announced a cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel, causing crude oil prices to fall. The demand for agricultural films is in the off - season, and the downstream demand for packaging films is weak. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7300 (-20), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 51, and the premium - discount ratio is 0.7%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 50.5 million tons (-5.0), neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is volatile. With the cease - fire in the Middle East, falling crude oil prices, off - season demand, weak downstream demand, and new capacity pressure, the inventory is neutral. It is expected to be volatile today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factors are new capacity release and weak demand. The main logic is the game between cost and demand and tariff policies [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, and the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April. After the cease - fire in the Middle East, crude oil prices fell. It is the off - season for downstream demand, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7250 (-0), with overall bearish fundamentals [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 206, and the premium - discount ratio is 2.9%, which is bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 58.5 million tons (-2.3), neutral [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is volatile. With the cease - fire in the Middle East, falling crude oil prices, weak downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving, and neutral inventory, it is expected to be volatile today [7]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factor is weak demand. The main logic is the game between cost and demand and tariff policies [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, apparent consumption, and other indicators of polyethylene have changed. The production capacity growth rate in 2025E is expected to be 20.5% [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, apparent consumption, etc. of polypropylene have changed. The production capacity growth rate in 2025E is expected to be 11.0% [17].