Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The steel market is affected by the China-US trade friction. The direct export impact of tariffs on steel is small, but the indirect impact is relatively large. Both direct and indirect steel exports will be affected to some extent in the future. For the steel market, it is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. - The iron ore market is facing a situation where supply is expected to increase and demand to decline. Considering factors such as high iron - water production, low finished - product demand, and potential macro - policy benefits, it is expected to have a small rebound or maintain a volatile trend in the near term, and the idea of shorting on rebounds for the 09 contract remains [1]. - The coking coal market shows a supply - demand game pattern in the short term. Market sentiment is greatly affected by the realization of terminal demand and macro - policies. Key factors to focus on include the profit - repair rhythm of downstream coking and steel enterprises, the stability of Mongolian coal customs clearance, and the upstream inventory accumulation speed [3]. - The coke market may continue the volatile trend in the short term under the support of rigid demand. However, risks such as the peak and decline of iron - water production and the impact of macro - policies on the industrial chain need to be noted. Key factors to follow are the profit - repair rhythm of steel mills, the cost change of raw coal, and the regulatory direction of policies on the black - series industrial chain [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On Tuesday, the rebar futures price fluctuated within a narrow range. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3170 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis of the 05 contract was 121 (-2). The short - term market fluctuates around the tariff policy. In 2024, China's steel exports to the US were 890,000 tons, accounting for only 0.8% of the total export volume. According to Mysteel's calculation, China's indirect steel exports reached 140 million tons last year, with more than 1 million tons exported to the US. Whether fiscal and monetary policies will be introduced in China needs further observation [1]. Iron Ore - On Tuesday, the iron ore futures price fluctuated within a narrow range. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 770 yuan/wet ton (+6). The Platts 62% index was 99.95 US dollars/ton (+0.50), with a monthly average of 99.92 US dollars/ton. The PBF basis was 102 yuan/ton (0). The latest total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,434.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 41.7. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 23,418.15 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 221.98. The daily iron - water output of 247 steel enterprises was 240.22 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.49 [1]. Coking Coal - Supply: Domestic coal mines in major production areas maintain normal production, with only a few mines having phased production restrictions. Imported Mongolian coal customs clearance is under pressure. Demand: After the first price increase of coking enterprises, the replenishment of raw coal by coking enterprises is mainly for rigid demand, and the speculative demand in the market has cooled down. Steel mills mainly adopt a low - inventory procurement strategy. The coking coal market shows a supply - demand game pattern in the short term, and market sentiment is greatly affected by terminal demand and macro - policies [3]. Coke - Supply: After the first price increase of coking enterprises, the profitability has improved, and overall production remains stable. Coking enterprises have smooth shipments, and inventory pressure has eased. Demand: Steel mills maintain a high blast - furnace operating rate, but the replenishment rhythm has become more cautious. The coke market may continue to fluctuate in the short term under rigid demand, but risks such as the decline of iron - water production and the impact of macro - policies need to be noted [4]. Industry and Economic News - In the first quarter of 2025, Vale's total iron ore production was 6.7664 million tons, a 20.7% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 4.5% decrease year - on - year. The total sales volume was 6.6141 million tons, an 18.5% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 3.6% increase year - on - year. Rio Tinto's iron ore production in the Pilbara region in the first quarter of 2025 was 6.98 million tons, a 19% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 10% decrease year - on - year. The shipment volume was 7.07 million tons, a 17% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 9% decrease year - on - year [6]. - China and Vietnam issued a joint statement on deepening the comprehensive strategic partnership and accelerating the construction of a China - Vietnam community with a shared future. They will accelerate the docking of development strategies and promote infrastructure connectivity [6]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced that the J2604 contract of coke futures will be listed for trading on April 16, with a listing benchmark price of 1647.5 yuan/ton [6]. - In early April, key steel enterprises produced 21.97 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.197 million tons, a 3.4% increase in daily output compared with the previous period. The steel inventory was 16.04 million tons, an 810,000 - ton increase compared with the previous ten - day period, a 5.3% increase [6]. - From April 7 to April 13, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.3199 million square meters, a 18.4% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 18.6% decrease year - on - year. The total transaction area of second - hand housing was 2.6587 million square meters, a 39.5% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 24.5% increase year - on - year [6].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the mining industry in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), focusing on the M23 rebel group and the DRC government's strategies regarding mineral exports and resource management [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Political Situation and Negotiations**: The DRC government engaged in negotiations with the M23 rebel group, indicating a willingness for peace despite the rebels' refusal to communicate directly due to lack of formal documentation [1]. 2. **Resource Management Strategies**: The DRC government is implementing measures to control mineral exports, including extending export bans and introducing quotas to manage local mineral processing [2][3]. 3. **Local Mineral Processing**: There is a strong emphasis on local mineral processing to enhance economic benefits for local communities, moving away from being merely an exporting country [3]. 4. **Nickel and Cobalt Market Dynamics**: The DRC's nickel and cobalt production is under pressure from global supply dynamics, particularly from Indonesia, which holds a significant market share [4][5]. 5. **Strategic Partnerships**: The DRC is exploring partnerships with the U.S. for military support in exchange for access to key minerals, highlighting the strategic importance of these resources [5][6][7]. 6. **Copper Market Outlook**: The DRC's copper market is facing challenges, including potential impacts from U.S. tariffs on imports, which could drive up copper prices [9][10][11]. 7. **Impact of Trade Policies**: U.S. trade policies are expected to influence global copper prices, with potential increases due to tariffs on imports [9][10]. 8. **Production Costs and Market Conditions**: The current market environment is challenging for copper producers, with calls for production cuts to stabilize prices [12][13]. 9. **Future Projections**: Companies in the DRC are expected to see growth in production capacity, particularly in copper and gold, with significant projects planned for the coming years [16][17]. Other Important Content - The DRC government recognizes the value of its mineral resources as a bargaining chip in international relations, particularly in negotiations with the U.S. and Indonesia [7][8]. - The records indicate a shift in focus towards enhancing local processing capabilities to create a sustainable economic model rather than relying solely on exports [3][4]. - The potential for increased copper prices due to supply constraints and rising production costs is highlighted, suggesting a favorable outlook for companies involved in copper mining [12][13][14]. - The importance of strategic metals, including copper and cobalt, is underscored as essential for future economic stability and growth in the DRC [11][12]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the mining industry in the DRC.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics with a target price of HK$23.28, indicating a potential upside of 100% from the current price of HK$11.62 [1][2][7]. Core Insights - JD Logistics is expected to benefit from the resilience of the Chinese economy, with a projected revenue growth of 10% year-on-year for Q1 2025, driven by government subsidies for electronic products and home appliances [6][8]. - The company is focusing on automation, self-operated fleet construction, and cost-reduction measures, which are expected to stabilize its net profit margin [6][8]. - Despite the potential negative impact of the US-China trade tensions, JD Logistics has limited direct exposure to international trade, which mitigates the risks associated with tariff increases [6][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for JD Logistics are as follows: RMB 199,540 million for 2025E (+3% from previous estimates) and RMB 216,070 million for 2026E (+4%) [5]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025E is RMB 1.18, with a gradual increase to RMB 1.56 by 2027E [2][8]. - The company's financial performance shows a significant increase in net profit from RMB 1,985 million in 2023A to RMB 7,353 million in 2025E [8]. Valuation - The current valuation of JD Logistics is attractive, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.2x for 2025E, which may decrease further if the acquisition of the remaining 36% stake in Cross-border Express is completed successfully [7][8]. - The report emphasizes that the valuation attractiveness can offset potential negative impacts from external tariff environments [7].

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月15日 万华化学（600309.SH） 优于大市 业绩短期承压，聚氨酯龙头有序扩张 精细化学品及新材料板块产销量同比增加。2025 年一季度公司精细化学品 及新材料板块营收 73.7 亿元，产量/销量为 62/54 万吨。2024 年 TPU 三 期、POE、PEBA、聚碳酸酯二元醇（PCDL）等多个项目投产，有效拓展 产线；2025 年 MS 和 XLPE 项目计划投产，将进一步完善产品结构。 公司核心产品聚氨酯有序扩张。目前公司 MDI 和 TDI 年产能分别为 380 和 111 万吨，稳居全球首位。万华福建 MDI 技改扩能项目预计将于 2026 年 二季度新增 70 万吨产能，万华福建第二套 33 万吨 TDI 项目预计 2025 年 5 月份建成投产，届时 MDI 和 TDI 产能将分别达 450 和 144 万吨。 风险提示：项目投产不及预期；原材料价格上涨；下游需求不及预期等。 投资建议：公司作为聚氨酯行业龙头，产能有序扩张，但由于下游需求疲弱、 中美贸易摩擦等不利因素影响，我们谨慎下调公司 2025-2026 年归母净利润 预测为 139.25/140.64 ...

移为通信（300590）公告，2025年1月1日至2025年3月31日，预计归属于上市公司股东的净利润为 885.91万元–1240.27万元，比上年同期的3543.64万元下降65%-75%。扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为 511.11万元–851.85万元，比上年同期的3407.42万元下降75%-85%。业绩变动主要由于中美贸易摩擦升 级影响海外订单交付、公司加大新老产品交替力度以及销售费用、管理费用、研发费用的增加。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is affected by Sino - US trade frictions. Although the direct impact of tariffs on steel exports is small, the indirect impact is relatively large. The steel market is expected to fluctuate with tariff policies, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [1]. - The iron ore market is facing a situation where supply is expected to increase and demand is expected to decline. Considering factors such as high pig iron output and potential macro - policy benefits, it is expected to have a slight rebound or maintain a volatile trend in the near future, and the 09 contract should be considered from the perspective of shorting on rebounds [1]. - The coking coal market may experience pressure and fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the progress of supply recovery in production areas, fluctuations in imported coal prices, and the profit transmission effect of downstream industries [3]. - The coke market shows a weak balance between supply and demand. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risks of repeated macro - policies and negative feedback in the industrial chain, and focus on the recovery rhythm of terminal demand and changes in steel mill profits [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Steel - **Price and Basis**: On Monday, the rebar futures price fluctuated within a narrow range. The price of Zhongtian rebar in Hangzhou was 3,170 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis of the 05 contract was 123 (+3) [1]. - **Export Impact**: In 2024, China's steel exports to the US were 890,000 tons, accounting for only 0.8% of the total export volume. However, the indirect impact was relatively large. Last year, China's indirect steel exports reached 140 million tons, including over 10 million tons to the US [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term market will fluctuate with tariff policies, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Price and Basis**: On Monday, the iron ore futures price fluctuated within a narrow range. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 764 yuan/wet ton (+2). The Platts 62% index was 99.45 US dollars/ton (+1.10), and the monthly average was 99.92 US dollars/ton. The PBF basis was 102 yuan/ton (+4) [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,434.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 41.7. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 23,418.15 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 221.98. The daily pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises was 2.4022 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.49. With the peak of building material demand and the slowdown of plate demand growth due to tariffs, iron ore is expected to enter a stage of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with a weaker far - month outlook [1]. - **Market Outlook**: Considering that there is no signal of a peak in pig iron output and possible macro - policy benefits, it is expected to have a slight rebound or maintain a volatile trend in the near future. The 09 contract should be considered from the perspective of shorting on rebounds [1]. 3.3. Coking Coal - **Supply**: Some previously shut - down mines in the main production areas are gradually resuming production, but the incremental space is limited. The customs clearance volume at the Mongolian border fluctuates, and traders are cautious about accepting Australian coal in the long term. The transaction of imported coal has weakened after the price rebound, and the inverted price difference between domestic and foreign markets continues [3]. - **Demand**: The coking - steel game continues. Downstream steel mills mainly replenish inventory based on rigid demand and have a low acceptance of high - priced resources. Although the high pig iron output supports the rigid demand for coking coal, the terminal finished product demand is affected by policies, and the market's resistance to high - priced coal is increasing [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term price of coking coal may be under pressure and fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the progress of supply recovery in production areas, fluctuations in imported coal prices, and the profit transmission effect of downstream industries [3]. 3.4. Coke - **Supply**: The start - up of coke enterprises in the main production areas remains stable, and the inventory pressure in factories has been alleviated, but there are regional differences. Some coke enterprises in the northwest region have tried to raise prices, but steel mills still resist [4]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output remains high, but the terminal finished product demand is affected by overseas tariff policies, and factors such as large fluctuations in the futures market have made steel mills more cautious in replenishing inventory, mainly based on rigid demand [4]. - **Cost and Profit**: The price fluctuation of raw coal has narrowed. Coke enterprises relieve operating pressure through cost reduction and efficiency improvement, but the thin coking profit restricts the supply elasticity [4]. - **Market Outlook**: The coke market shows a weak balance between supply and demand. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risks of repeated macro - policies and negative feedback in the industrial chain, and focus on the recovery rhythm of terminal demand and changes in steel mill profits [4]. 3.5. Industry News - On April 14, 2025, General Secretary Xi Jinping arrived in Hanoi for a state visit to Vietnam [5]. - The cold - rolling project of Henan Xingsheng New Materials Co., Ltd. was officially put into production recently [5]. - According to customs data on April 14, in March 2025, China imported 501,000 tons of steel, with a cumulative import of 1.55 million tons from January to March, a year - on - year decrease of 11.3%; exported 1.0456 million tons in March, with a cumulative export of 2.7429 million tons from January to March, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. In March, China imported 3.8732 million tons of coal and lignite, and 11.4846 million tons from January to March; imported 9.3974 million tons of iron ore and concentrates in March, and 28.5312 million tons from January to March, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8% [5]. - In March 2025, China exported 568,000 vehicles, with a cumulative export of 1.538 million vehicles from January to March, a year - on - year increase of 16.6%; exported 38.2343 million household appliances, with a cumulative export of 107.1918 million from January to March, a year - on - year increase of 13.1%; exported 680 ships, with a cumulative export of 1,555 ships from January to March, a year - on - year increase of 19.3% [5]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Implementation Plan for the Upgrading of the New - Generation Coal - fired Power Industry (2025 - 2027)", aiming to improve the power spot market, auxiliary service market, and coal - fired power capacity tariff mechanism [5].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 高位整理趋弱 | 巴西大豆产量展望基本维持稳定。阿根廷方面，未来十五天降雨有再度降雨不足的 | | | | 可能。4 月美国将对中国加征 10%关税，中国发起反制，对美豆加征 10%的关税。 | | | | 美豆贸易争端暂告一段落。美豆种植意向面积公布结果同比环比调减，但美豆期末 | | 豆粕 | | 库存高于预期。国内市场方面，本周国内港口及大豆库存环比增加、豆粕库存环比 | | | | 延续下降，预计下周豆粕库存有望回升。4 月国内大豆进口开始放量，4-6 月月均 | | | | 进口 1000 万吨以上。周末市场传出特朗普停止征税的消息，警惕国内豆粕重心再 | | | | 度转至基本面逻辑的调整风险。主力【3050，3100】 美对加籽加征关税利空加籽下跌。国内市场本周沿海油厂菜籽及菜粕库存环比下 | | 菜粕 | 震荡整理中趋 | | | | | 降，压力边际改善。中国对加拿大菜粕菜油加征 100%关税，但未包含菜籽，且可 | | | | 交割菜粕途径较多，实际利多影响有限。全国菜粕库存远高于过去两 ...

【文/观察者网 齐倩】美国总统特朗普上任后肆意妄为，挑起全球关税战。在全球市场巨震、美国国内 恐慌后，特朗普的行为更是惊掉众人下巴：他迅速扭转政策，将目标对准中国，多次上调关税至 145%。 "然而，特朗普对中国发动的关税攻势，可能永远无法取胜。" 4月11日，美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）连发多篇分析文章称，特朗普政府此时已"骑虎难下"，针对中 国只是为了试图挽回面子，将一次"尴尬的后退"包装成为"伟大的胜利"。 分析指出，鉴于特朗普杂乱无章的领导风格及其对盟友的背弃，在这场关税战中，美国可能永远无法取 胜。更重要的是，中国"已经准备好战斗到底"。同时，美国消费者即将感受到"真正的经济痛苦"。 外交部发言人毛宁11日引用毛主席讲话：美国是只纸老虎 特朗普想"挽回面子" 过去不到10天的时间里，特朗普的关税政策变来变去：先是对全世界挑起关税战争，在全球股市巨震后 又突然暂停"对等关税"90天、同时对准中国。此后，特朗普多次上调对华关税。 在持续的"朝令夕改"期间，特朗普不止一次地公开表示，他希望接到来自中国的电话，并声称"中国希 望达成协议，只是不知道该如何去做"。然而，特朗普的妄想落空了。 CNN认为，尽管中 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 巴西大豆产量展望基本维持稳定。阿根廷方面，未来十五天降雨有再度降雨不足的 可能。4 月美国将对中国加征 10%关税，中国发起反制，对美豆加征 10%的关税。 | | | | 美豆贸易争端暂告一段落。美豆种植意向面积公布结果同比环比调减，但美豆期末 | | | | 库存高于预期。国内市场方面，本周国内港口及大豆库存环比增加、豆粕库存环比 | | 豆粕 | 短线高位整理 | 延续下降，预计下周豆粕库存有望回升。4 月国内大豆进口开始放量，4-6 月月均 | | | 进口 | 1000 万吨以上。近日中美贸易摩擦再度升级，中国对美加征关税达到 84%， | | | | 这意味着美豆进口已经彻底阻断，后续的关税升级对豆粕的进一步利多影响将大幅 | | | | 削弱。在缺乏进一步利多支持下，继续看多追多操作需谨慎。主力【3040，3120】 | | | | 美对加籽加征关税利空加籽下跌。国内市场本周沿海油厂菜籽及菜粕库存环比下 降，压力边际改善。中国对加拿大菜粕菜油加征 100%关税，但未包含菜籽，且可 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant fluctuations in the exchange rate between the Japanese yen and the US dollar, driven by escalating trade tensions between the US and China, and the impact of inflation data on currency trading dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Rate Movements - On April 11, the exchange rate of the yen against the dollar rose to the range of 142 yen per dollar, surpassing the previous high of 143.99 yen on April 9, marking the largest appreciation of the yen and depreciation of the dollar since early September 2024 [1]. - The market has seen an increased tendency to sell the dollar compared to other major currencies due to heightened vigilance regarding US-China trade tensions [1]. Group 2: Trade Tariffs and Economic Indicators - The US announced an additional tariff rate of 145% on China, which is an increase from the previously stated 125% by President Trump, based on a 20% extra tariff that took effect in February and March [1]. - In retaliation, China implemented an 84% additional tariff on US goods, further escalating the trade conflict [2]. - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, which was below market expectations of 2.6%, alleviating some concerns regarding inflation in the US and contributing to the trend of selling the dollar [2].