哈费勒最新的谨慎态度与其4月10日上调美股评级形成了逆转，当时正值特朗普宣布暂停实施一周前加 征的大部分关税后的第二天。 哈费勒表示，自瑞银上调评级以来，标普500指数已经攀升了约11%，这使得风险与回报更加平衡。 这位瑞银买方首席投资官还将他的评级调整与周一中美宣布相互削减关税、股市大幅上涨联系起来。中 美关税削减缓解了短期担忧，此前人们担心特朗普的高额关税计划会引发世界两大经济体之间的贸易 战。 尽管在中美调整双边关税水平后华尔街其他机构变得更加乐观，但瑞银财富（UBS Wealth）周二仍对 美股采取观望态度，对近期反弹表示怀疑。 瑞银的投资主管马克・哈费勒（Mark Haefele）将美国股市的评级从"有吸引力"下调至"中立"，他指 出，他并非看空股市，也不是建议客户抛售股票，而是认为过去一个月股市上涨过快。此前，在4月初 美国宣布新关税政策后，投资者变得过于悲观。 高盛首席美国股票策略师大卫・科斯坦（David Kostin）周二将标普500指数2025年的目标价从5900点上 调至6100点，理由是关税税率降低、经济增长前景改善以及经济衰退的可能性降低。 亚德尼研究公司（Yardeni Resea ...

周三（5月14日）欧洲时段，欧元/美元小幅上涨至接近1.1200，在美国4月通胀数据低于预期后，美元 保持防御姿态。欧元兑美元上涨，荷兰国际集团分析师Francesco Pesole在一份研报中称，这是因为周二 美国公布了低于预期的通胀数据，不过，欧元兑美元进一步上涨的空间可能有限。 美国4月通胀数据低于预期，导致美元（USD）兑欧元（EUR）走弱。交易员等待德国4月harmonized Index of Consumer Prices（HICP）数据以获得新的动力，该数据定于周三晚些时候公布。 根据美国劳工统计局周二发布的数据，衡量美国通货膨胀的消费者价格指数（CPI）在4月同比下降 2.3%，低于市场预期的2.4%和3月份的2.4%，创下自2021年2月以来的最低水平。核心CPI（排除波动较 大的食品和能源价格）4月同比上涨2.8%，与前值和预期持平。美国CPI报告出炉后，美元立即走软。 经过两天在瑞士日内瓦的谈判，美国和中国同意相互降低关税。美国将对中国进口商品的关税从145% 降至30%，中国将美国进口商品的关税从125%降至10%。市场对世界上两个最大经济体之间可能达成关 税协议以缓和贸易战的乐观情 ...

Economic Outlook - Recent economic dynamics in the US, including milder inflation data and easing US-China trade tensions, are alleviating concerns about severe impacts on households and businesses [1][3] - Major financial institutions like JPMorgan and Barclays have adjusted their economic forecasts following a recent US-China trade agreement, which includes a reduction in punitive tariffs [3] Inflation Data - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.3% year-on-year in April, marking the smallest increase in over four years, which supports market expectations for gradual interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][5] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 2.8%, with prices of goods like clothing and vehicles remaining stable or declining, contrary to market expectations [6] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve has maintained its short-term borrowing costs between 4.25% and 4.50%, with no immediate signs of economic collapse observed [5][6] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have shifted, with traders now anticipating only two rate cuts within the year, potentially starting in September rather than July [3][6] Trade Policy Impact - The recent US-China trade agreement has significantly influenced market confidence, leading to a reassessment of recession risks and economic forecasts [3] - Despite the easing of some tariffs, the overall tariff levels remain historically high, and the final shape of trade policies is still uncertain, which complicates economic predictions [6]

智通财经APP获悉，比预期温和的通胀数据和中美贸易战显著缓和的态势，正在缓解市场对未来数月美国家庭和企业将遭受严重冲击的担忧。这促使华尔街 机构下调经济衰退预期，并为美联储维持当前利率水平提供了政策空间。 摩根大通和巴克莱等机构周二纷纷调整经济预测，以反映中美上周末达成协议后的良性经济前景。根据协议，双方将降低自4月初以来实施的最严厉惩罚性 关税。 摩根大通经济学家现在认为经济衰退概率已低于50%；巴克莱经济学家则完全移除了衰退预测。两家机构此前均预期高关税将重创消费者和企业，抑制支出 和经济活动。 中美协议也促使金融市场重新定价，大幅削减了对美联储需在7月前降息以缓冲经济下滑的押注。交易员目前预计年内仅会有两次降息，最早9月启动。 美国劳工部周二数据显示，4月消费者物价指数同比上涨2.3%，创四年多来最小涨幅。这强化了市场预期，即美联储决策者将在下半年逐步降息，而非采取 更早更激进的行动。 "市场一直担忧关税会推高通胀，这种风险仍然存在。但今日数据至少让投资者松了口气，通胀仍在朝正确方向发展。"Longbow资产管理公司CEO杰克·多拉 海德表示。 不过，Raymond James经济学家指出："贸易政策的 ...

亚特兰大联储GDPNow模型预测，在一季度经济意外下滑后，二季度美国国内生产总值（GDP）增速 有望回升至2.3%。华尔街也进一步看好美国经济前景，摩根大通认为，因贸易谈判取得了进一步的实 质性进展，衰退的概率已经明显下降（市场定价为35%）。 就在上月，摩根大通将经济衰退的可能性提高到60%，理由是特朗普的激进关税立场。"关税的进一步 降级、贸易谈判的积极势头、强劲的（第一季度）收益和有弹性的宏观数据导致了跨资产的广泛机遇。 在美国和中国同意在贸易谈判同时降低关税90天后，这一势头正在增强。" 中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发出后，全球市场迎来狂欢。不过，在美元上涨和金价重挫的背后，避险 情绪降温意味着美联储又有了一个等待降息的理由。 中美双方在联合声明中达成多项积极共识。双方认识到双边经贸关系对两国和全球经济的重要性，认识 到可持续的、长期的、互利的双边经贸关系的重要性，本着相互开放、持续沟通、合作和相互尊重的精 神，继续推进相关工作。 作为经济的重要风向标，5月12日美国银行板块走强。美银、富国银行、花旗、高盛涨幅均超过3%。标 普银行ETF盘中突破了4月2日的收盘价，这意味着该行业现在已经收复了特朗普公布 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market showed mixed performance with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 269.67 points, closing at 42140.43 points, a decline of 0.64% [1] - The S&P 500 index rose by 42.36 points, closing at 5886.55 points, an increase of 0.72%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index increased by 301.74 points, closing at 19010.08 points, a rise of 1.61% [1] - The S&P 500 index's eleven sectors had six gainers and five losers, with the technology and consumer discretionary sectors leading gains at 2.25% and 1.41% respectively, while the healthcare and real estate sectors led losses at 2.97% and 1.3% respectively [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Labor Department reported a 0.2% month-on-month increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April, below the market expectation of 0.3%, while the year-on-year increase was 2.3%, also below the expected 2.4% [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.2% month-on-month, matching the market expectation, and had a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [2] - Concerns about economic recession and persistent inflation have significantly eased, with market expectations for further stock market gains [2] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index from 5900 to 6100 due to reduced trade tensions, while Yardeni Research increased its target to 6500 based on lowered concerns about significant economic slowdown [2] - The chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs noted that the increase in the S&P 500 target reflects lower tariffs, better economic growth, and reduced recession risks [2] - Fitch Ratings remains cautious about the current trade situation, emphasizing that the effective tariff levels in the U.S. are still significantly higher than those expected in 2024 [3] Group 4 - UnitedHealth Group Inc. announced the immediate resignation of its CEO Andrew Witty and suspended its full-year earnings guidance, resulting in a significant stock price drop of 17.79% [3] - Nvidia's stock rose by 5.63% following news of selling 18,000 advanced AI chips to Saudi Arabia [3]

金十数据5月14日讯，据路透社/益普索民调：特朗普的支持率上升至44%，比四月末的民调高出2个百 分点。59%的受访者认为今年的经济衰退将归咎于特朗普，而37%的受访者则将责任归咎于美国前总统 拜登。 特朗普民调支持率上升 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net investment income for Q1 2025 was $37 million, corresponding to an annualized return on equity (ROE) of 9.8% [6] - GAAP net income per share was $0.32 for the quarter, corresponding to an annualized ROE of 8.7% [6] - NAV per share was $14.93 at the end of March, down $0.05 or approximately 30 basis points [6][7] - Total investment income for March was approximately $78.7 million, down $3.5 million or 4.2% compared to the prior quarter [36] - Net investment income per share was $0.37, reflecting a net loss of approximately $4 million or $0.05 per share [40][41] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - MFIC made new commitments totaling $376 million during the quarter, with a weighted average spread of 513 basis points across 33 different companies [21] - The weighted average net leverage on new commitments was 4.2x, down from 4.3x in the prior quarter [22] - Direct origination and other represented 92% of the total portfolio, up from 90% last quarter [23] - The weighted average yield at cost of the direct origination portfolio was 10.7%, down from 11% in the previous quarter [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - MidCap Financial closed approximately $6.5 billion of commitments during the quarter, despite muted sponsor M&A activity [10] - The weighted average net leverage of borrowers was 5.25 times at the end of March, down from 5.5 times at the end of December [31] - Investments on nonaccrual status decreased to 0.9% of the portfolio at fair value, down from 1.3% last quarter [33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on building a diversified portfolio of first lien floating rate direct corporate loans in less cyclical industries [7][30] - The management believes the core middle market offers attractive opportunities across cycles and does not compete directly with the broadly syndicated market or the high yield market [11][19] - The company is actively monitoring the impact of trade tariffs on its portfolio and has categorized its direct lending portfolio based on the severity of the tariffs [29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management noted that the current economic environment is characterized by volatility and uncertainty, particularly due to trade tariffs and potential recession fears [15][18] - They expect that the uncertainty in public debt markets may drive borrowers to seek solutions in the private market, which could benefit direct lenders [18] - The management remains optimistic about the company's ability to increase earnings despite the challenges posed by the economic environment [49] Other Important Information - The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.38 per share, payable on June 26, 2025 [20] - The company repurchased approximately 477,000 shares at a weighted average price of $12.75, which had an accretive impact on NAV per share of approximately $0.01 [43] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the strong fundings in Q2 despite cautious commentary? - Management explained that the strong deployment in Q1 reflects activity that commenced earlier in the year, and they expect fewer auctions in the latter half of the year [47] Question: What is the outlook for dividend sustainability relative to NII? - Management expressed comfort in their earnings power and capital plan, noting that prepayment income can fluctuate [49] Question: How dependent is MFIC on M&A activity for new originations? - Management clarified that MFIC is not completely reliant on M&A activity, as there are existing portfolios and opportunities for growth [55] Question: What is the current assessment of M&A recovery timeline? - Management indicated that the timeline for M&A recovery is uncertain, but significant capital expenditures and infrastructure spending may create credit opportunities [63] Question: What is the exposure to tariff-affected countries in the portfolio? - Management stated that the exposure is in single digits and emphasized their focus on U.S. companies with less reliance on diverse supply chains [74] Question: What trends are observed in amendment activity? - Management noted that amendment activity was relatively flat quarter over quarter, with no significant changes in covenant violations [76]

Core Insights - Investor sentiment regarding global economic growth has improved, with a net 59% of investors expecting a slowdown, down from 82% in April [1] - The expectation of a recession has significantly decreased, with only a net 1% believing a recession is likely, compared to 42% in April [1] - The prevailing consensus among investors is a "soft landing," where inflation decreases without a significant economic slowdown or recession, with 61% of investors anticipating this outcome, up from 37% in April [1] - Expectations for a "hard landing" have dropped from 49% in April to 26% [1]

高盛在一份报告中表示，由于贸易紧张局势缓和带来的乐观情绪，美国在未来12个月发生经济衰退的可 能性已经下降。高盛的经济学家将美国经济衰退的发生概率从45%下调至35%，并指出，最近达成的协 议将导致实际关税税率的增幅略低于预期。他们还说，特朗普政府可能会在未来几周内宣布其他初步贸 易协议，这可能会进一步降低美国的实际关税税率。鉴于贸易形势的发展和过去一个月金融条件的明显 放松，高盛将对2025年美国经济增长的预期上调0.5个百分点至1.0%，并将美联储开始降息的预期时间 从7月份推迟至12月份。 ...